SB Nation User Blog: RealTangiblesGuy

So You Think You Can Put Together a Chamion?

RealTangiblesGuy — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 03:14:12 -0000

UPDATE! 8th August, 8 PM Central

I agree, we should also have a fantasy league during the season. Here is the draft order I random generated (I swear):

1st round:

1. PhoenixStan

2. JSun?

3. hbcblankscreen

4. PanamaSun

5. rosewood

6. AZSEAfan?

7. KJ7

8. ZonaFlash

9. RealTangiblesGuy

Each subsequent round will be in reverse order.

If you're on here but you weren't interested, just let me know and I'll remove you and bump everyone up one spot. Also, try to get pick your players on a timely basis. I'm not going to hound anyone, but if you think you're going to be away feel free to tell me a quick order of who you want and I'll just select whoever is available and highest on our list. I'll also try to keep a running list of each team. PhoenixStan, you're up!

If you're like me, nothing in life is more devastating than surfing on over to the Phoenix Suns Blog of the Universe and finding no new posts (well, that and finding a new post by JSun linking to another Diaw post in the Dirty). . So, in the interest of sanity, I propose a game (which I stole, not created):

Whoever wants to play, gets a "team" and is the "GM." After people sign up, we'll put together a random draft order and each draft players. Then we trade. Then we all vote on which team would be most likely to win a championship and that person becomes our recommendation for GM to Sarvar when he calls Phoenix Stan for our advice. If you're interested, read on:

I have a few suggestions that we can discuss before we start. For the draft, I suggest a format where the draft order is reversed each round. I suggest we only do 8 players a team so we spare ourselves the torture of selecting between Sean Marks and Eric Piatkowski. We can increase this number if only a few people want to participate. Also, I suggest we do away with salary cap/trade restrictions of all kinds since the point is to have fun, not do work. So you can trade whoever for whoever and whoever. Also, I suggest we imagine that the NBA will only exist for 1 more year so stuff like future draft picks and age are not issues (to decrease complications and make it easier to pick a winner). Also, at the end, I think the vote should be open to everyone and not just participants.

I'm willing to keep track of stuff and update rosters and all that.

There are a few questions I'm not sure about, though.

1) Maybe we should imagine that no injuries will happen to make the game more fun. The argument about whether D.Wade is more important to a team than Yao Ming is much more fun than the argument about whether D. Wade is less likely to be out for the season than Yao Ming.

2) Should there be time for trading after the "lottery" and before the drafting so people can move around?

3) How about this draft order: 1st round determined by lottery. Second round reverse order of first round. Third round Identical to second round. Each subsequent round reverses order of previosu round. This would, to some degree, even out the advantage of having one of the top 3-5 picks since in basketball, the top handful are really important to winning a ring. This would reward skill more and luck less.

4) Also, I think it would be fun to make trades public for like 24 hours before they "go through" so that others can offer more if they think one side is getting ripped off ala Chris Wallace.

So, if you wanna do it, let me know which team you wanna be the GM of. Feel free to pick an NBA team or make up your own team names. If you don't want to participate, then you suck and you're not my friend.

Amare Stoudemire--The best offensive player in the NBA?

RealTangiblesGuy — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:33:59 -0000

Alright guys, I had been meaning to make something like this for a long time, but there's a ton of inertia with this kind of thing. You just can't start, and when you do start, it becomes an obsession.

We spend a lot of time talking about defensive capabilities and intangibles and the like, but rarely have I seen a full on discussion about who the best offensive player in the NBA is. Let that discussion begin. This graph is a eFG% vs. PPG graph for prolific scorers in the NBA. Average values are denoted by the red lines. The data was pulled from Basketball-Reference and the players to appear were selected by me (there is selection bias). I tried to pick a balance of players from teams. I picked only players with PPG over 17 (with one exception, Steve Nash). For most of these players, it cannot be argued that they do not have the ability to create their own shot. Teams rely on each of these players for major offensive production.

[URL=http://img300.imageshack.us/my.php?image=prolificscorershb0.jpg][IMG]http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/4007/prolificscorershb0.th.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

I feel that an offensive player should be able to produce big time points but should do it effectively. Although eFG% is an excellent way to measure a player's offensive efficiency, it is not perfect. One problem is that it misrepresents players who are intentionally fouled due to low FT %. For example, Dwight Howard's eFG% would probably be a heck of a lot higher if he could hit 85% from the line as teams would be more willing to let him get a shot close to the basket. Currently, teams do anything in their power to foul him before his extremely high % shots. Same thing with Shaq throughout his career. Many Shaq dunks were avoided by fouling. eFG% does not do favor to these guys. However, one can argue that poor FT% should also be included in any measure of offensive efficiency, and so I have tried to include that in the concept of "Posessions" (as you'll see). Another problem with eFG% is that players who turn the ball over a ton on the way to effective offensive production (step forward, D. Wade) are overrated.

To rectify this and other similar problems, I pulled something out of my ass that I like to call "Possessions." This is basically FGA + FTA/2 + TOV (all numbers per game). In my mind, it represents possessions used by each player in order to generate his production. I know there are some problems with this. First, point guards (and others) who have as a major part of their duty distributing the ball will have higher TOV. Second, players who get many And-1's will actually be using fewer possessions than this number indicates. Furthermore, players shooting many technical freethrows will not be rated appropriately. However, it does provide some interesting information (ex. although Jefferson/Yao seem to be more effective in the post than Duncan, they also use more possessions to get their work done).

via img2.freeimagehosting.net

Alright, so here's what I think I learned after making this:

Using this, I believe a stronger case can be made for Amare as the premier offensive player in the NBA than for any other player. Amare's possessions were exactly on the border of yellow/red but I put the cutoff after him due to the And-1 bias I discussed earlier.

In the case of Iverson/Anthony, it seems very obvious that shots should be transferred to Anthony--he has a much higher eFG% than Iverson and can create his own shot.

Despite all the talk about how Al Jefferson was not enough to be the centerpiece of a trade for Garnett, his offensive production seems to be almost exactly the same as that of Yao. I don't know how far apart they are defensively but do know that both have a reputation for poor defense. Given that, would anyone protest if Yao was the focal point of a trade platter for KG?? So why do people argue about Big Al?

This graph makes Mike Dunleavy look great. It seems he may be severely underrated with respect to his offensive abilities.

Steve Nash is absolutely ridiculously amazing. Despite his reputation as a high-turnover PG, he is extremely effective offensively. I was so shocked by this that I looked up his career eFG%. Guess what? This is not an outlier. I think the Sixers may have been much better off making him the first pick of the 96 draft.

Kobe is below average with respect to eFG% (no excuses this year for poor teammates, please). He also used a high number of possessions, for what its worth.

Bosh is a yellow dot among a sea of red ones. If you subscribe to "Possessions," this means he is much more effective at scoring than his eFG% would have us believe.

Gordon seems better than Deng offensively, despite accusations that he's just another undependable jump shooter.

Both Deng and Josh Smith (highly touted RFA) are poor in terms of offensive production.

This adds another exhibit to the "Kevin Durant Sucks" stack of evidence. I was quite tempted to promptly break all the above guidelines of player selection in order to add Al Horford.

Another interesting tidbit: Mr. Vinsanity and R-Jeff had nearly the same eFG%. Now I'm pretty sure this wasn't due to planning, but it seems that major offensive players on the same team should reallocate shots until they have the same eFG% in order to gain maximum effectiveness (you listening, George Karl? How about you, SVG?)

Alright, one last note: I'm very open to criticism and promise I'll try my best to not get defensive unnecessarily. Let me know if you have any suggestions, questions, would like to see the raw numbers, want me to add a player or think I should remove a player, etc. Also I enjoy doing stuff like this so let me know if there's some other data you'd like to see. Right now, I'm thinking of doing something with the idea of consistency (which players vary the most from game to game and which are more dependable) and would appreciate any ideas or thoughts with regard to this.

Ed Note from P-Stan: Wow, is this a solid bit of analysis or what? Great work!

Towards the end of the season I some charting of Amare's season myself with grand plans to do an end of season recap show in partnership with Black Jesus Disciples

That never happened but I still have this little graph to share on the topic of Amare's dominance.

You will note the slow start which was well documented around here and that his rise started before Shaq came. This is something Amare was saying last year if anyone bothered to listen beyond the sound of Shaq's big mouth claiming how he would make Amare great.

O'Neal to Raptors, Ford to Pacers

RealTangiblesGuy — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 01:13:52 -0000

Raptors send T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and the no. 17 pick to the Pacers for Jermaine O'Neal's bum knee. Word on the street is the rest of Jermain O'Neal will also be thrown in to sweeten the pot. I like this deal for both teams. Now we can go back to a league where only one center is jacking up 3's (Mehmet Okur) instead of two (Mehmet Okur and Andrea Bargnani). For what it's worth though, Okur made more 3's last year than Nowitzki. Interesting.

I like this move for Toronto: They now have a second big who is not afraid to occasionally step inside the 3 point line. Hopefully, this also signals an end to the Bargnani "experiment". BTW, methinks Bargnani would be a nice fit in LA alongside Pau Gasoft. Furthermore, they can now finally play their better point guard as their starters and can run him 34-38 mpg. They lose the 17th pick in the draft and also had to absorb a ginormous salary. But they will either have a 23 million expiring in 09/10 (bigger than our own 20 million expiring in that year). Assuming they let him come off the cap, this gives them another 10-11 million in cap relief for the summer of 2010. This becomes key if Bosh opts out and they don't give Bargnani the qualifying offer and sign no other players beyond 2010. If all this occurs, they are on the books for a paltry 6 million with first dibs on Bosh. Goodness. We thought we were set for that summer.

For Indiana, they now have two starting point guards who each play about 40 games a season (Tinsley and Ford). No word yet on if they're planning to move the 10 and 17th picks to obtain Livingston and fill out their starting point guard "rotation". Also, it gets rid of O'Neal, which will likely make Pacers fan finally happy and break the last lingering link to the Pacers of old. They also obtain another draft pick. Good deal all around.

Another interesting result: the term "O'Neal's expiring contract" will be thrown around about 340384324823784932 times in 2009/2010 with reference to both our O'Neal and their O'Neal. Five years ago, who wudda thunk it?

D'Antoni to Knicks

RealTangiblesGuy — Sat, 10 May 2008 19:14:32 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3389987

Reports: D'Antoni accepts offer to coach Knicks.

To the Knicks?? Really?? I hope, for D'Antoni's sake, that he isn't tryin to go over there and play savior of one of the most dysfunctional franchises in all the land. I wonder what this means for Steve Nash who seems to really really want Mike to stay. I never really expected Mike to accept the Knicks position though. Good lock coaching Marbury and Zach Randolph. They'll make Amare seem like the easiest player to coach in the NBA. I wonder if he can teach them to be unselfish. If he can, it'll be a true miracle.

NBA Cities

RealTangiblesGuy — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 06:42:10 -0000

I just sort of had a question that might evolve into a discussion. In your opinion, which cities are true "NBA" cities? I mean to ask, which are the cities where NBA basketball is the predominant sport followed by most people? I have lived in four NBA cities (soon to be five as I have lived in OK) but was too young to remember Chicago (during Jordan era!) and Dallas. I can tell you for sure that Atlanta is definitely not a Hawks city or any other kind of pro-sports city. People here just don't care. I also live in Boston, where people care a lot about the C's, but I don't think you can call it a true basketball city because people care so much more for the Red Sox/Patriots than the Celtics. I mean, they love their sports, but the Celtics are like the adopted child. Maybe it's because the team had been bad for so long, I don't know. Also, for those of you that live there/have lived there, is Phoenix an NBA city? What other cities are NBA cities?

Brube Bowen Observation

RealTangiblesGuy — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 03:27:08 -0000

I watched the Boston-San Antonio game and got the feeling that the NBA is beginning to crackdown somewhat on Bruce Bowen. He tripped up Rajon Rondo while both were chasing a loose ball and had the foul called on him when he surreptitiously tripped Rondo when it would likely have been a no call earlier. Also, he got caught in a mismatch with KG and was fronting KG. Of course, being Bruce Bowen, he promptly reached back and pulled out KG's jersey and KG was frustrated and pushed Bowen away. The foul was called on Bowen for pulling on KG's jersey. As the crowd booed, KG made a show of taking his time to tuck his jersey back in.

I hope my impression isn't just a misconception and that the NBA really has turned a corner on players like Bruce Bowen who continuously play dirty. Also, this might be fun to know: Paul Pierce reached back and pulled Bowen's head back during right after someone else took a shot attempt, nearly causing him to fall. No foul called. Also, Horry tried to punk KG during a jump ball preparation by pushing him away from his spot. The two had a pushing match for a couple seconds before KG stood up and whacked Dirt Horry in the chest/neck area. Once again no call. It was refreshing to see the Spurs not getting the advantage from having Cheap Shot Bob practice his art after what happened to the Suns last year.

Garnett in PHX

RealTangiblesGuy — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:02:24 -0000

I follow three teams: Atlanta Hawks because I'm form Atlanta. Boston Celtics because I go to school in Boston. And the Phoenix Suns because they got me hooked on basketball again after years of not watching any. One morning this summer at work, I logged onto HoopsHype and the title was "KG to BOS?" I promptly flipped out and sent about 15 text messages to friends. Hours later, the title on the front page had become "KG to BOS" and I was really happy. I was going to get to watch a good team. Boy, was I wrong. KG is ridiculously amazing and the Celtics are great. Which brings me to my point: I read some KG to PHX rumors in the summer, (not sure what exactly was offered but maybe one of you remembers). I think PHX should have gone all out for that move. I mean all out.

I think it would have been completely worth it to trade away STAT, Diaw, and Atlanta's pick this year as well as PHX's 2008 1st round pick. I think this is plausible because MIN gets a legit star in STAT to build around and gets a young forward that may develop into a great player and Atlanta's lottery (just wait) pick. Of course, some random players would also have to be traded to make numbers work.

Los Suns? They get the championship, no doubt about it. Suns Starting 5: Nash-Bell-Hill-Marion-Garnett or Nash-Bell-Marion-FA-Garnett. Here's why they would win the championship:

The Matrix. After reading McCallum's book and from what I see, Marion minded STAT more so than Nash. Trading away STAT lets him know that he was not the only one being shopped. In Garnett, the Suns get a star who no longer cares about individual accolades and has all the fame he would ever need. You also get a big brother type player who will watch over the others and make sure everyone's feels like they're part of the team. This guy works wonders for the team he's in in terms of their chemistry. Having KG around with no STAT would, at least to some degree, calm Marion down and keep him around and working with all his heart for the next two years at the least. I also have a feeling that if he got to taste the championship champaign, he might be more likely to sacrifice individual accolades for another ring.
Toughness. People don't mess with KG. They just don't. He's freaking scary. This would have a near-Shaq like effect on the team's toughness. Garnett is highly respected around the league and is not afraid to jaw out any and all opponents regardless of size and status.
Defense. I can't think of a player more versatile defensively than Kevin Garnett. Not even the Matrix. A week or so before his abdominal strain, he had to be put on Yao Ming due to the other centers having foul trouble. He shut Yao down down the stretch and Boston won. The next week, during the game he got injured, he stole the ball from Teflair, MIN's PG, to seal the victory in the closing seconds. This guy can guard the low post, the mid-range game, and he can check guys like Nowitzki on the perimeter very well. He can full court-press point guards and he can camp out in the paint. But all of that is just the icing on the cake. The cake is evident in Boston's defense: it's the leagues best. But only when KG is around. During the 9 game stretch he missed, they went 7-2 but their defense just wasn't the same. Why is that? I went to a Celtics game last weekend and every time the C's are on defense, he is barking out instructions and it works. He points out guys that his teammates need to get on and he brings a ridiculously high defensive IQ. I'm not saying the Suns would become the best defense in the league (the C's also have a great defensive coach). But, I'm convinced they would be in the league's top half and occasionally in the league's top 10. With the Sun's offense, that's absolutely lethal. Plus you no longer get killed by the likes of Al Jefferson in the post.
Intensity. Pop quiz: How many times have the Celtics been blown out this year? None. No blowouts through 60 games. Who's the energy plug? KG. Many times this year the problem with the Suns, as pointed out on this blog, is intensity and desire. That is NEVER my concern with the Celtics. I am never worried that they won't show up for a game. If they did, Garnett might kill someone. Seriously.
Passing skills. His passing skills are a serious improvement over STAT's. If the Suns play KG, Hill, and Nash on the floor, that's three legit playmakers dishing to a dunking Marion and a sharpshooting LB/Bell.
Offense. This would suffer with the loss of STAT. KG has offensive skills but lacks the athleticism of STAT. He can dunk to finish fast breaks and has some post moves on offense. His mid-range jump shot has more range than STAT's and is more polished with more range. He can also play the grind-it out style in the post, though with not as effectively as Duncan. He won't draw as many fouls but he has pretty much the same FT%.
Free agents. The best free-agent PHX picked up during the season was GG. Boston picked up P.J. Brown (lusted after by several times during the off-season) and Sam Cassell. They get monthly calls (pretty much) from Payton's agent. Want a backup veteran point guard as an insurance policy? Got it. Want a rebounder? Got it. These guys actually want to play with KG.
Rookies. He takes them under his wings and teaches them tricks. Check out Boston's "Big Baby" Davis. Check out the development of Leon Powe. There are other factors involved here but one of the important factors is KG. This guy pumps them up, gives them confidence, and brings out the best in them. Assuming D'Antoni will play them.

I think with the above factors all considered, Phoenix comes out on top. The luxury tax for the next couple of years would be no less than it is with Shaq and KG ("The Big Ticket") would sell nearly as many tickets. He would need to be paid beyond 2010, but would likely continue bringing in the money. With him on PHX, they might slip to 2nd or 3rd on offense but the improvements in defense, toughness, and versatility put them over the top.

Duncan messing with you? Put KG on him. A little Tony Parker in your grill? Have KG send back those stupid teardrops. Bowen trying to end someone's career? Have KG jaw him. I swear he'll be scared shitless.

Sorry it was so long. I love him here in Boston, but if he was in Phoenix, it would all but guarantee a championship in PHX in my opinion.