It's that time of year again when we celebrate movies about France, visiting Paris, fighting wars in France, making movies in France or going back in time... to France! Also Moneyball and that George Clooney one. Let's join together to dish on the fashion, mock the acceptance speeches and pick the winners in a pool. Once again the winner of the pool just might receive a package of illegal, not yet released Oscar nominated DVDs. Bonne chance!

The pool is hosted at http://www.picktainment.com (I don't like using these fly-by-night websites either, but the big boys having gotten their act together on this. C'mon Grantland). Registration seems easy. Then join pool. you should be able to search for the pool.

Continue reading this post »

I assume there's only one thing on Red Reporters' minds this time of year: will Melissa Leo's campaigning cost her Best Supporting actress? That's right, it's time to get our gamble on, pour ourselves a cosmo or berrytini and dish, dish dish! I established our annual Oscar pool at the site www.funofficepools.com. Details after the jump.

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It's that time of year again. Just like last year I created a pool at www.funofficepools.com (last year I shopped around and that clunky site was the best. It's entirely possible there's something better now. If we all had SBNation issued iPhones there's a pretty sweet app...)

Sign up and join pool name: Red Reporter 2010, password: aroldis. It will really make it easier for people to follow along if your pickset name is somewhat similar to your RR handle.

Continue reading this post »

 

Sometimes there's a team—and I’m talkin’ about the Dodgers here, sometimes there’s a team, well, they’re the team for their time and place. They fit right in there. And that's the Dodgers. In Los Angeles. And even if they’re a great team—and the Dodgers are most certainly that--quite possibly the greatest in Southern California, which would place them high in the runnin’ for greatest worldwide. Sometimes there's a team... Ah, I lost my train of thought here.

 

Continue reading this post »

I know we just had a big movie thread, but I thought there might be interest in the Academy Awards tonight. We can dish about the outfits, that dreamy Hugh Jackman, this year's movies and do a little gambling.

I started a pool at www.funofficepools.com. The site is a little clunky, but it's way better than some of the others I came across. After registering an account (free) click join pools

http://www.funofficepools.com/joinpool.php

Choose 'Oscars' from the drop menu. Pool Name Red Reporter Password Taveras. It would be helpful if you make your Selection name the same or similar to your RR screen name. The Deadline is 8pm tonight.

To make things interesting I'll send an envelop to the winner, but I can't legally promise that it will include Academy screener DVD copies of all the best picture nominees (I also can't promise that on request I will swap out The Reader or Benjamin Button for something better like The Wrestler).

At 2 PM today the BBWAA will announce the NL MVP. In years past I've compared the candidates and invited debate on the matter. Increasingly I've come to realize that these exercises inevitably deteriorate into people talking past each other. Everyone has their idea of what the MVP is. So let's look at how this year's candidates match up to the justifications.

For the record here are the voting guidelines:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

UPDATE: It's Pujols.

Continue reading this post »

We need to get moving on a RR fantasy football league if we want to be able to do a live draft on Yahoo. The past few years we were forced to draft on Red Reporter which was a pain (although the new system should alleviate that if it comes to it).

The following people expressed interest the last time the waters were tested:

sonant1
MixFMKyle
Charlie Scrabbles
BK
Lakeman
snohio
jacob brumfield
crolfer
obc
Red Menace
Officer Dibble
greg456
chesirecat
chandrathan
Caleb (if needed)

In addition the following were involved last year (sorry if I missed you)

Ash
Brian B
sledridge (where has he been?)

Anyone else is welcome to throw their hat into the ring now. So far it looks like 14 strong committments with a potential for 18, plus whoever jumps in now. I think we should be able to get to 20 so we can have two leagues. That would increase the chances that everyone could make their draft time.

What time works best for drafting? 7-ish on a weeknight? Stay tuned to this thread for league-joining info which will probably be forthcoming.

UPDATE

The league with a live draft will be this Wednesday at 7:45pm Eastern (8 was unavailable and the next time was 10). If enough people really have a problem starting this soon we can move to Thursday, but the times would still be 7:45 or 10.
 
League ID #: 554660 (Yahoo)
Password: cincy

The max teams is 14. You can still edit your rankings and let the computer autodraft for you if you like. However there is also an

Autodraft league
League ID #: 554710
Password: cincy

I will hand over commissionership and drop out once enough people join this one. Once everyone is ready the commish will tell the computer to do the autodraft. There’s more time to get a crew together here and fantasy first timers are welcome to join as it should be a more mellow scene.

Happy Opening Day Eve everybody. Time to show off our powers of prognosticating. First some kudos are in order. Here's how we did last year.

By far the biggest mistake was the Dodgers, who most everybody had winning the NL West, We got totally Pierred. Nobody had the Rockies anywhere close to the playoffs The DBacks and Indians made a lot of people look smart, while the late collapses of the Mets and Brewers hurt a lot.

Two Red Reporters, teb7 and ken,  correctly called 6 of the 8 playoff teams.  teb7 missed on the Brewers and the Padres as a Wild Card. ken missed on the Dodgers and Mets, although he did have the Mets behind the Phillies.

greg456, Alan (young, handsome Alan) and ctnyc all correctly picked the Red Sox to win the World Series. Way to go out on a limb there, fellas. Now on to 2008...

Continue reading this post »

Congrats to Officer Dibble for winning the Red Reporter Fantasy Football league. Despite finishing the regular season with a .500 record, his Vegas Strippers got hot at the right time. This is the second consecutive RR Fantasy Football crown for OD. Dynasty!

He defeated sonant1 in the finals by 1 point. Reggie Wayne's fumble in the Sunday night game was the difference.

Brian B downed MixFMKyle in the third place game. Kyle is on his way to becoming the Atlanta Braves after dominating the regular season for the second straight year with nothing to show for it.

Tomorrow is the long awaited Mitchell Report Day. Rumors abound that the Senator's findings will name 60-80 current and former Major League players. Here's your chance for wild speculation.

The Rules

List ten players, 1 through 10, that you believe will be "named" (mentioned in any pejorative way in the Mitchell Report). You'll receive 10 points if your #1 name is listed, 9 points for #2 and so on (like an NFL confidence pool). As a bonus any former Reds players will result in double points (so ten points if you had Frank Robinson at #6 on your list and he's named).

Note the list of ineligible players below! Any player who has admitted usage, tested positive, or been implicated through some sort of leak is not acceptable. Be creative and show your biases.

Please use this diary only to post your list of 10. For questions or further steroid talk use this one.

And folks, please just scroll quickly to the bottom and make your list. Don't look at other peoples' picks. That would be cheating on a steroid pool, which is way too meta for me to handle. Also no changing your list with 'Reply to'. The deadline is 2:00 PM on Thursday. Good luck!

===Ineligible Players==

Admitted Users (17)
Ken Caminiti - Steroids
Barry Bonds - Steroids
Bobby Estalella - Steroids and hGH
Jason Giambi - Steroids and hGH
Jeremy Giambi - Steroids
Armando Rios - Steroids and hGH
Benito Santiago - Steroids and hGH
Gary Sheffield - Steroids
Jose Canseco - Steroids and hGH
Tom House - Steroids
Wally Joyner - Steroids
Paxton Crawford - Steroids and hGH
Jason Grimsley - Steroids and hGH
Jim Leyritz - hGH
David Segui - hGH
John Rocker - hGH
Paul Byrd - hGH
Implicated Players (29)
Mark McGwire - Steroids
Manny Alexander - Steroids
Chuck Finley - Steroids
Marvin Bernard - Steroids and hGH
Randy Velarde - Steroids
Wilson Alvarez - Steroids and hGH
Bret Boone - Steroids
Ozzie Canseco - Steroids
Juan Gonzalez - Steroids and hGH
Dave Martinez - Steroids
Ivan Rodriguez - Steroids and hGH
Tony Saunders - Steroids and hGH
Miguel Tejada - Steroids
Lenny Dykstra - Steroids and hGH
Dave Hollins - Steroids
Roger Clemens - "PE Drugs"
Andy Pettitte - "PE Drugs"
Brian Roberts - Steroids
Jay Gibbons - Steroids
Gary Matthews Jr. - hGH
Jerry Hairston Jr. - hGH
David Bell - hCG
Darren Holmes - Steroids and hGH
Rick Ankiel - hGH
Troy Glaus - Steroids
Scott Schoeneweis - Steroids
Matt Williams - Steroids and hGH
Jose Guillen - Steroids and hGH
Ismael Valdez - hGH
MLB Posiive Tests (16)
Alex Sanchez - Unknown
Jorge Piedra - Unknown
Agustin Montero - Unknown
Jamal Strong - Unknown
Juan Rincon - Unknown
Rafael Betancourt - Unknown
Rafael Palmeiro - Stanzolol (Steroid)
Ryan Franklin - Unknown
Mike Morse - Unknown
Carlos Almanzar - Unknown
Felix Heredia - Unknown
Matt Lawton - Boldenone (Steroid)
Yusaku Iriki - Unknown
Guillermo Mota - Unknown
Juan Salas - Unknown
Dan Serafini - Unknown
Non-MLB Positive Tests (2)
Termel Sledge - Precursor (Andro)
Derrick Turnbow - Precursor (Andro)
.end
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.
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For the last of these awards diaries I'm breaking format. There's been a lot of consternation here over Aaron Harang's "poor" showing in last year's Cy Young voting (he didn't appear on a single ballot). For my part I've been dismissive of these concerns. The question now is will he get a vote for 2007? The hardware gets handed out on Thursday.

The important thing to remember is each writer only names three pitchers on his or her ballot. I see two locks and a handful of challengers for the Harangatan. The fancy stats are Defensive-independent ERA and Value Over Replacement Pitcher from Baseball Prospectus, and Pitcher Runs Created and Win Shares from The Hardball Times.

Jake Peavy    ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    19-6     2.54 2.88 159  223.3 1.06 240 68 13 143  77.0  23
Peavy should win in a landslide. I would be shocked if weren't named on every ballot. He was first in ERA (any way you slice it, although adjusting for park or defense does lessen his lead), first in wins, strikeouts and K-rate, first in Win Shares and he leads in WHIP, VORP and PRC by large margins.  

Brandon Webb  ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    18-10    3.01 3.30 156  236.3 1.18 194 72 12 129  66.1  22
The defending champ was second to Peavy in PRC, VORP, WS, Wins and ERA. He led the league in innings, complete games and shutouts. He too should be named on every ballot. He might steal a few first place votes from Peavy because he led his surprise team to the playoffs and because he threw 42 consecutive scoreless innings in a row, challenging Hershiser's record. It should be remembered that despite this amazing feat, his season on the whole still lagged Peavy's by almost any measure. He might get Shannon Stewart love because his team made their move during his streak.

If we assume that these two will be named on every ballot (and I think they should be) that only leaves one spot for Aaron. The contenders:

Brad Penny    ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    16-4     3.03 2.99 151  208.0 1.30 135 73  9 108  61.7  21

I think Penny is Harang's stiffest competition. He's third in ERA+, VORP and Win Shares. He won as many games as Harang and his ERA looks very pretty. Harang's advantage comes in his peripherals. He pitched over 20 more innings, struck out many more and walked fewer, thus putting less responsibility on his defense. PRC aknowledges this. Will the voters?  

John Smoltz   ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    14-8     3.11 3.48 137  205.7 1.18 197 47 18 112  56.7  16
Tim Hudson
    16-10    3.33 3.56 128  224.3 1.22 132 53 10 108  59.7  19

Smoltz and Hudson both tallied slightly more VORP than Harang. Timmy was credited with 2 more Win Shares. Smoltz and Harang tied for the league leade in K/BB ratio, but Harang threw 26 more innings. The big key here is that both of their ERA advantages over Harang disappear when we adjust for defense. Is Andruw still that much of a factor?

Roy Oswalt    ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
     14-7    3.18 3.26 138  212.0 1.32 154 60 14 110  59.8  18

I still maintain that he's slipping, but he did best Harang in VORP, Win Shares and ERA and its derivatives. And now our candidate:

Aaron Harang  ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    16-6     3.73 3.38 125  231.7 1.14 218 52 28 119  53.8  17

The case for Harang as the (at least) third best pitcher in the league: He's a solid third to Peavy and Webb in PRC. His WHIP was 5th in the league but only Peavy's from this group was better (Young, Hamels and Lilly were the others). He was second to Webb in IP, second to Peavy in strikeouts. His strikeout to walk ratio tied for first in the league with Smoltz's. He threw 2 complete games (Webb led with 4).  

The case against Harang as the third best pitcher in the league: He was 7th in the league in VORP (behind every pitcher here). His ERA is really bad amongst this elite group. Before you say GABP, his ERA+ is still last in this group. A better rallying point is the Reds' defense. Harang's DERA jumps the two Braves', is pretty close to Webb's, but still lags Peavy's and Penny's by a good measure. He's sixth in Win Shares, topping only Smoltz. Harang's major problem was giving up home runs. I thought there might be a park effect at work that ERA+ isn't accounting for, but his HR splits are almost identical (15 in 118.2 IP at home, 13 in 113 IP on the road).

I would cast a third place vote for Harang. I think he'll get some this year, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he got shut out again. These were the clear top 7 candidates by my stat-y evaluation, but others could pop up on the ballots. A few votes are usually collected by the top reliever (Saito?) or by a local champion (Hamels, Lilly?)  

Poll

After Peavy and Webb, who's your choice?

52%

Harang

18 votes

26%

boobs

9 votes

17%

Penny

6 votes

0%

Oswalt

0 votes

0%

Smoltz

0 votes

2%

Hudson

1 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

The official AL Cy Young winner will be announced November 13th. Here's your chance to sound off. I'm including defensive independent ERA (DERA) from BP, adjusted ERA+, the usual suspects (WHIP, strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed), David Gassko's Pitching Runs Created, pitcher's VORP and THT's Win Shares. Apologies to Roy Halladay, who threw 7 compete games but didn't do an outstanding job of preventing runs, and J.J. Putz, who probably had the best season for a closer.

Josh Beckett  ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    20-7      3.27 3.34 145 200.7 1.14 194 40 17 120  58.6  19

He's the win king for what that's worth. He also tossed 4 complete games while anchoring Boston's stellar rotation. Official ballots have to be in at the end of the season so no bonus for playoff heroics.

Erik Bedard   ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    13-5      3.16 3.05 146 182.0 1.09 221 57 19 114  54.9  19

I was going to drop Bedard from this list because he threw 40 fewer innings than most here. But while everyone else's DERA is worse than their actually ERA, his improved significantly to lead the field. He also led the league in strikeout rate. His is the only WHIP in Johan's ballpark.

Fausto Carmona ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    19-8      3.06 3.15 151 215.0  1.21 137 61 16 116  64.0  22    

The youngster ties Lackey for the lead in ERA+. His VORP is just behind teammate Sabathia's. Not a big K guy, but he allowed very few home runs.

Dan Haren      ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    15-9      3.07 3.54 137 222.7  1.21 192 55 24 115  56.4  19

Solid season for Haren, but his pretty ERA doesn't look so hot when you adjust for defense or park. Haren threw 5 complete games.

John Lackey    ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    19-9      3.01 3.25 151 224.0  1.21 179 52 18 120  60.7  22

Lackey led the league in ERA and tied for adjusted ERA+ with Carmona.

C.C. Sabathia  ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    19-7      3.21 3.35 143 241.0  1.14 209 37 20 131  65.2  24

Sabathia led the league in innings pitched and threw 4 complete games. He leads in all the advanced metrics here, PRC, VORP and WS which warms my cold robotic heart.

Johan Santana  ERA DERA ERA+ IP    WHIP  K  BB HR PRC  VORP  WS
    15-13     3.33 3.55 130 219.0  1.07 235 52 33 123  57.7  18

A "down" year for Johan, mainly because of the home runs allowed, but he's perineally excellent. Led in WHIP and finished second to Kazmir in strikeouts.

Poll

Who's your AL Cy Young?

0%

Lackey

0 votes

26%

Beckett

6 votes

56%

Sabathia

13 votes

8%

Bedard

2 votes

0%

Santana

0 votes

4%

Carmona

1 votes

4%

Other

1 votes

0%

Haren

0 votes

23 votes | Poll has closed

...er, MVP. I'll try to crank out these awards diaries in the coming week before the real hardware is handed out. This one is drained somewhat of its drama. Again I'm looking at AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS+, Win Shares and Runs Created from THT, VORP and WARP1 from BP and JinAZ's fielding translations of the Hardball Times' data (and everyone should check out his recent comparison of the various fielding measures). There's no defense rating for catchers or DHs, and I'll mention the stolen base numbers where applicable.

10 candidates in alphabetical order:

Curtis Granderson
302/361/552 OPS+ 136 RC 112 VORP 67.3 DEF +33.0 WS 26 WARP 10.7 SB/CS 26/1

About a month ago a poster on BBTF pointed out Granderson's 10 most important at bats of the year (based on win probability added). They were all in the 8th or 9th inning, men on base in close games, etc. He was 0-10. This wasn't due to some innate unclutchness, but an inability to hit lefties. Nearly all the at bats were against left specialists. VS R: 337/393/621, VS L 160/225/269. You should never let Granderson beat you in the later innings because a lefty turns him into a very bad player. It will be interesting to see if he improves on this going forward.

This is all my way of needling Zach. Despite the huge platoon split his boy had a tremendous season.

Vladimir Guerrero
324/403/547 OPS+ 147 RC 124 VORP 62.6 DEF -15.4 WS 31 WARP 6.1

Will this be Vlad's last appearance on a list like this? He doesn't steal bases anymore and while he still uncorks that powerful arm occasionally his defense is suffering. He battled injuries to put up a solid offensive year. His perineal MVP-ness is bolstered by the Angels not having any other major offensive threats. Maybe that will change this offseason if they sign a certain somebody.

Ichiro
351/396/431 OPS+ 122 RC 133 VORP 63.5 DEF +33.0 WS 33 WARP 63.5 SB/CS 37/8

Players like Ichiro are always hurt by OPS comparisons, so it's no biggie that he easily brings up the rear in that category. His successful switch to centerfield improves the value of his strong defense. And he's still swiping bags. I'm thinking his skills will add a long tail to his decline phase.

Victor Martinez
301/374/505 OPS+ 127 RC 109 VORP 55.0 WS 31 WARP 7.0

Pretty solid campaign for an Indians team that needed it with Travis Hafner's year long slump. Unfortunately for V Mart another catcher overshadows his performance.

Magglio Ordonez
363/434/595 OPS+ 167 RC 154 VORP 87.8 DEF -4.9 WS 36 WARP 8.6

Second in Win Shares, Runs Created and VORP. This would be an easy choice for MVP in most years (although the Tigers' faltering could hurt him).

David Ortiz
332/445/621 OPS+ 171 RC 136 VORP 86.2 WS 29 WARP 8.2

Yet another year with him near the top of this discussion. Despite his drop in home runs the advance metrics show this to be one of his best years ever.

Carlos Pena
282/411/627 OPS+ 172 RC 117 VORP 68.5 DEF 11.5 WS 30 WARP 9.5

The year's biggest surprise didn't have a starting job coming out of spring training. He finished second in OPS+ and third in WARP. He was the undrafted fantasy baseball MVP, but where will you take him next year?  

Jorge Posada
338/426/543 OPS+ 154 RC 100 VORP 73.4 WS 26 WARP 8.2

Classic late career, contract year resurgance. Strangely his RC is well below many who aren't on this list (Raul Ibanez?) and his WS total ties for last among my contenders. But a 154 OPS+ out of a catcher will always be incredibly valuable.

Alex Rodgriguez
314/422/645 OPS+ 177 RC 160 VORP 96.6 DEF -5.8 WS 39 WARP 11.0 SB/CS 24/4

First in OPS, OPS+, SLG, HR, Runs, RBI, RC, WS, WARP, VORP, adjusted batting runs, batting wins, times on base, power/speed number and a hundred other metrics that haven't been invented yet. His defense wasn't too hot though. It will be interesting if Boras markets him as a shortstop.

Grady Sizemore
277/390/462 OPS+ 122 RC 124 VORP 53.8 DEF -18.9 WS 31 WARP 6.4 SB/CS 33/10

A down year for Grady, but he played 162 games and led the league in plate appearances. There's value in that and the advanced metrics show that. Was his defense really that bad?

Poll

Who's your AL MVP?

0%

Other

0 votes

0%

Guerrero

0 votes

4%

Pena

2 votes

4%

Ichiro

2 votes

4%

Posada

2 votes

0%

Martinez

0 votes

76%

Rodriguez

35 votes

2%

Ordonez

1 votes

6%

Sizemore

3 votes

2%

Granderson

1 votes

0%

Ortiz

0 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

On MLB.com's Fantasy 411 podcast they've been talking to Joe Sheehan and Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus for the past week. They got into the Reds one day. It was five minutes in a two hour show so I thought I'd just include a transcript. If you want to listen it starts at about the one hour, 24 minute mark of the October 8th episode. If you don't want to read through here are the highlights:

-Carroll says there is a great debate about whether to pick up Dunn's option. This really scared me, but Castellini's talk at the press conference kind of puts these fears to bed.

-Sheahan is very bullish on the Reds for '08. For what it's worth this was before the Dusty announcement.

-Carroll sounds really pessimistic about Jr's injury.

-Kyle Lohse gets their nod for best available free agent pitcher.

-The both support that Dunn-Votto position switch.

Joe Sheehan (JS) is a founder and leading editor for Baseball Prospectus. Will Carroll (WC) is considered the industry's leading injury expert. Also present is host Mike Siano (MS). I've added some italics to try to capture tone.

MS: Speaking of the Reds and managerial stuff Castellini has come out and said Wayne Krivsky is our GM period through a spokesperson. Krivsky has one year left on his contract and the Reds are 152-172 in his two years. How much say will Krivsky have in whether the Reds pick up Dunn's option?

JS: That's a non-starter, isn't it? I mean it's one year at... it doesn't actually matter. It's one year.

WC: I've actually heard some talk that there's a great debate in the Reds front office about whether to pick it up or not.

(silence)

WC: And that tells you all you need--

JS: Anything I say now is gonna get me taken off the air.

WC: Yeah, it would be one of the stupider moves, but you know, that's entirely possible. And the other thing you want to look at with Krivsky is yes, he's gonna be the GM, but is Walt Jocketty gonna be the CEO? Do we get into a situation, an Andy MacPhail like situation where he's gonna bring in his own guy, where they have--

JS: Didn't the Tigers do that?

WC: The Tigers did exactly that.

JS: They brought in Dombrowski and Randy Smith lasted six days.

WC: Yeah. And it could well be a similar situation if Jocketty decides not to take a year off.

JS: And I don't care who's making the decision. You pick up Dunn's option. It's one year at, what is it 12?

WC: Yeah, one of the things that they talk about is that they couldn't trade him until May because of some esoteric reason--

JS: Whoop-de-doo.

WC: Yeah.

JS: We talk about--was it on air with you guys? I, forgive me I've done a fair amount or radio. The Reds are a pretty good team.

MS: Yeah--

JS: They can score a ton of runs--

MS: Was it you that was saying--

JS: I think it was here we were talking about--

MS: Yeah, it was here. You were sitting right there and you said they may have a shot at the Central next year.

JS: If they can accidently trip over a bullpen--

MS: (laughing)

JS: I'm not even kidding you. They've got two good starters plus whatever Homer Bailey gives them. Now they have to fill out the back of the rotation. But you look at the lineup. They can score a ton of runs. The defense is, is okay, it's not great--

WC: Well hold on there. You've got to assume that Ken Griffey is back. And that was a pretty bad tear. I mean once again we're dealing with a ton of uncertainty. Griffey had a great season up to that point and now his future really in jeopardy again. So I'm not sure that same offense is--

JS: Okay, I still got Dunn, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, a good catcher--an underrated catching platoon--

WC: And I think Jay Bruce has a chance to crack that lineup as well.

JS: Okay, so if Bruce comes up you've got Hamilton, Dunn, you've got the--Norris Hopper is a good fourth outfielder--he played--

WC: Hamilton's gonna start in AAA.

[ED note: I'm pretty sure he meant Bruce here]

JS: Okay. I mean, I'm gonna say this team can score a ton of runs over the course of the year.

WC: Especially in that park.

JS: And not signing Dunn is a complete--what are you gonna do with that 12 million dollars? You can't do anything with it this year.

WC: The best--

JS: Give me a good player at 12 million as opposed to... what?

WC: The best pitching option out there is Kyle Lohse who they traded away.

JS: I keep coming back to this. Oh, God. Are we prepared to be in...

MS: Nashville--

JS: --three months from now and be talking about Kyle Lohse getting five and sixty from somebody?

MS: Oh my God.

WC: Yeah, because you know--

MS: (laughing)

WC: I think he's this year's Ted Lilly.

JS: I think he's this year's Gil Meche.

WC: Gil Meche.

MS: Carl Pavano...

JS: But he's the best guy in the market.

MS: It's more like Pavano because it's default.

WC: And you know who his agent is.

JS: I never know who their agent is.

WC: Scott Boras.

MS: Lohse is a Boras client? Really?

WC: Yeah.

MS: Really. I did not know that.

JS: And... (laughs) Let's just say there are better ways... If I've gotten spend 12 million dollars next year I'll spend it on Adam Dunn.

WC: Yeah.

JS: I know what Adam Dunn's gonna give me. And you know something from what I could see this year, his defense and his conditioning were both better this year. He wasn't, he looked to me like he was playing a little bit better last year--

WC: His defense looked better in the games I was down there. His conditioning was, he's starting to look a little bit more like me than he should. But much much taller.

JS: Fair enough.

WC: But he's a big guy.

JS: He's still a guy to have.

WC: Yeah, I would like to see him at first base. Just because he's, he's eating his way out of left field.

JS: What do you do with Joey?

WC: Joey doesn't play a bad left. I saw a couple games--

JS: Just flip the two of them?

WC: Yeah. Yeah, I don't have a problem with that.

JS: Okay. I could live with that.

MS: You think, uh--

WC: I think the Reds have a number of guys, Joe makes a good point here, a number of guys who are going to be very late round [fantasy] picks like Votto, and maybe you take a--

JS: Keppinger.

WC: Keppinger's a guy. A lot of, I don't think Jay Bruce is gonna be a sleeper, but you might make that quicker pick than a lot of people would because it would not surprise me if our buddy Kevin Goldstein ranked him number one.

JS: Uh, yeah. I don't know who it's--him or Kershaw?

WC: Yeah.

JS: Okay, we just undercut Kevin then.      

Since the powers that be have decided to fill the playoffs with off days I thought we could start debating awards. Despite the capriciousness of the official voters I'm always interested in these. I have little inclination to try to predict the horserace or to engage in semantical arguments about value (although if that's your cup of tea, have at it).

This year there will be no Morneau-over-Jeter/Mauer for statheads to rally behind. The pool of candidates in the NL is very even and any could make a good choice. Whichever player you favor, another bests him some way.

I'm looking at what I consider to be the 10 leading candidates (with apologies to Jake Peavey). I've included their slash stats (AVG/OBP/SLG), OPS+ to give some indication of park factors, Runs Created and Value Over Replacement Player to account for playing time and positional adjustment, Win Shares (THT) and Wins Above Replacement Player (level 1) to tie it all together and Jinaz's +/- runs translations of the Hardball Times fielding data (that's DEF below. I wanted to included mgl's UZR, but I couldn't find the numbers for a couple players). I'll also mention stolen bases when relevant. The candidates in alphabetical order:

Miguel Cabrera
320/401/565 OPS+ 152 RC 135 VORP 71.4 DEF -10.8 WS 30 WARP 9.1

Cabrera turned in an awesome season. If he were a strong defender he would be poised to take this, but he's a first baseman in waiting. He's near the top of the advanced metrics, but there's no compelling reason to favor him over other candidates. Also his team sucked and the player to his immediate left on the infield steals some of his thunder.

Prince Fielder
288/395/618 OPS+ 157 RC 126 VORP 69.1 DEF -11.0 WS 28 WARP 6.9

Prince took a huge step forward this year, but he looks a little outclassed among this year's top seasons. His offensive production is below some on this list and he plays a bad first base. He's the Brewer candidate and a few weeks ago it looked like he might win. Given that Milwaukee missed the playoffs he'll probably get little love now.

Matt Holliday
340/405/607 OPS+ 151 RC 125 VORP 75.0 DEF +8.3 WS 30 WARP 10.1

By powering the Rockies run to the playoffs Holliday fits a nifty story angle, but he's a solid pick even without that. He's a good defender (that brutal play in the play-in game notwithstanding) and he was worth 7-10 wins for a team that needed them all. If you like batting average that .340 is mighty tasty.

Ryan Howard
268/392/584 OPS+ 145 RC 117 VORP 53.6 DEF -7.8 WS 26 WARP 6.4

The defending champ won't likely repeat. Howard missed some time this year and saw his rate stats drop. Like Fielder he's a statue at first. He still put up a very solid season, but there's probably two teammates ahead of him.

Chipper Jones
337/425/604 OPS+ 166 RC 117 VORP 76.0 DEF +13.3 WS 26 WARP 8.7
This one surprised me. I wouldn't have included Chipper until I saw him second on David Gassko's ballot. Turns out he led the league in OPS. He's still a good defender which might make him a better choice than fellow third baseman Cabrera. The Braves' continued fall from relevance likely hurts him.

Albert Pujols
327/429/568 OPS+ 158 RC 123 VORP 72.1 DEF +30.3 WS 32 WARP 11.3

How's this for a surprise? All we heard all year is that this is a down year for Pujols, but really look at him. He saves a ton of runs with his glove, even playing first. He leads the league in WARP. His slugging is down (hurting all the fantasy players who took him first) but that could be because of New Busch Field. The Cardinals fell from their lofty 83 wins of last year which likely removes him from the discussion. But take your favorite pick for NL MVP and really compare him to down-year Albert and your guy probably comes up short.

Hanley Ramirez
332/386/562 OPS+ 147 RC 127 VORP 89.5 DEF -22.0 WS 29 WARP 8.7 (51 SB 14 CS)

Hanley put up first baseman level offense as a shortstop, which is why he kills everyone in VORP. That's balanced out by his atrocious defense--he's the Derek Jeter of the NL. However unlike Jeter Hanley isn't on a winning team. If you don't mind his D he's a solid choice.

Jimmy Rollins
296/345/531 OPS+ 122 RC 122 VORP 66.1 DEF -3.0 WS 28 WARP 9.4 (41 SB 6 CS)

Rollins seems to be the choice for people who want to celebrate the Phillies overtaking the Mets. His offense isn't close to Hanley's, but his defense is better. Even with Chase Utley's missed time it's debatable who was more valuable to their team.

Chase Utley
332/410/566 OPS+ 147 RC 108 VORP 68.8 DEF +20.2 WS 28 WARP 9.6

If Utley hadn't broken his hand in July he wouldn't probably be tops. Despite only playing 132 games he might have outproduced Rollins. He puts up great offensive numbers while playing the best second base in the league (ok, maybe it's Brandon Phillips).

David Wright
325/416/546 OPS+ 152 RC 136 VORP 81.1 DEF +28.8 WS 34 WARP 11.2 (34 SB 5 CS)

Wright leads the league in Win Shares and Runs Created. He trails only the defensively challenged Hanley Ramirez in VORP. Pujols edges him in WARP by 0.1. He plays great defense. He steals bases at a fantastic rate. But the Mets collapse will likely cost him the award, even though Wright OPSed over 1000 during the September swoon. He's my choice.

 

Poll

Who's your NL MVP

0%

Ryan Howard

0 votes

0%

Chase Utley

0 votes

0%

Chipper Jones

0 votes

24%

David Wright

12 votes

0%

Miguel Cabrera

0 votes

12%

Albert Pujols

6 votes

4%

Other

2 votes

6%

Prince Fielder

3 votes

0%

Hanley Ramirez

0 votes

48%

Matt Holliday

24 votes

6%

Jimmy Rollins

3 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

Pedro on Monday -- in Cincinnati

Pedro Martinez will most likely make his 2007 debut against the Reds on Labor Day. I know a lot of RRers are planning to attend. Here's a good place to talk about it. I'm 50/50.

vs. Cincinnati
G   GS  GF  W   L   S   CG SHO   IP     ERA    H    R   ER   HR  BB  IBB  SO
17  11   3   6   2   1   2   1   88.2   2.03   44   24   20   3   22   1  102

Correlation

Our Sabermetric Overview Series has lost some momentum (which doesn't really exist in baseball, but nevermind) so I thought I'd kick start it with a big diary about the C-word.

Baseball statheads love saying the word correlation. Sabermetricians toss around "correlation" like Joe Morgan does "consistency" (in terms of frequency, not accuracy). But what does it mean? Let's get to the bottom of it and lay the groundwork (read: ruin the surprises) for further installments in this series.

! A Note: This is about as math-y as the new baseball thinking gets. I mean it's scary `rithmatic--we're talking weird stuff like "linear regression" and "covariance". If you want to do cool original baseball research these days you have to know how to do this stuff. Fortunately you don't need to know much math to understand the concepts. Take me. I have no idea how any of this stuff works and I'm writing a Goddamn primer on it. That's why I'm carefully citing all the charts and figures here. I didn't do any of this work (with one exception). I'm just cribbing it from people who kindly posted their efforts on the internet. My prediction: this diary will have enough weird concepts to freak out mathophobes while having plenty of incorrect information to piss off the people who actually know about this stuff. And away we go!

Correlation (or the correlation coefficient) describes a relationship between two variables. In our case the variables are going to be baseball statistics--strikeouts and runs scored or BA w/RISP '06 and BA w/RISP '07. It could be any two sets of data ("Things", for our purposes). Statisticians have many different ways to measure the relationship between the two Things. The most common is called the Pearson product method, named for some guy called Pearson (or maybe some other guy called Galton). This is what the guts of what we're talking about looks like:

 

Don't worry if you don't understand this! Nobody does. Scientists have been studying it for years and so far they have only concluded that math is hard.

The important thing is that you get something designated `r' or the correlation coefficient that describes the relationship. Let's talk real world and use visuals.

Here's a chart of boys' heights vs their age. As you can see there's some positive correlation. As the boys get older they generally get taller. The dots kind of go from the bottom left to the upper right. Sometimes statisticians will draw a "best fit line" through the data to give you the idea. Now here's a chart of boys' heights vs the month in which they were born.

It's just a big blob! There's no correlation, and why would there be? What month a boy is born has no bearing on how tall he'll be. Remember, when you see a big blob there's no correlation (these charts courtesy of Science Buddies.org: Free Science Fair Project Ideas, Answers and Tools for Serious Students1).

The correlation coeffecient, r, is expressed as a number between -1 and 1. If there's no correlation it's 0. So if the correlation is between 0 and -1 (say -0.25) there's an inverse correlation. If it's between 0 and 1 (say 0.58) there's a positive correlation. The closer to 1 or -1 the stronger the correlation.

Now let's talk baseball (finally). There are many nifty things we can do with this. One is seeing which stats correlate best with scoring or preventing runs so we know how best to judge players. Here are the correlation coefficients between run scoring and various offensive measures (courtesy of Dan Fox at the HardballTimes2)

BB   0.590
HR   0.719
AVG 0.843
OBP  0.910
SLG  0.913
OPS  0.955
RC    0.964

RC is Runs Created, a fancy saberstat. As you can see all of these measure have a positive correlation with run scoring. The more advanced measures paint a fuller picture. Some data--say GIDP--would have a negative correlation with run scoring and the numbers would be below zero. SPOILER ALERT: strikeouts are right about at zero when it comes to scoring runs.

Another useful way to use this tool is to check for correlations between a statistic in one year and that same statistic the next year. If a player has a skill, like Adam Dunn's home run power, it will strongly correlate year-to-year. If a player's stats are the result of normal statistical fluctuation (luck, to use a loaded term) they won't correlate year-to-year--think Bronson Arroyo's home run power. Here's how some basic batting stats correlated (r-squared) from 2005 to 2006 (courtesy of David Appelman at FanGraphs3):

AVG  .12
OBP  .36
OPS  .36
SLG  .38

Batting average correlates only a third as well as the others. It really fluctuates. Remember in Bull Durham when Kevin Costner made that speech about how if he could just get one extra flukey hit a month he'd hit .300 instead of .250 and be in the show? He's talking about batting average's low correlation year-to-year even if he doesn't know it. If Crash's GM were savvy he'd look beyond the average (inflated on balls in play) and see that his slugging and on base skills were the same. Maybe in September, Crash. SPOILER ALERT: any sort of stat designed to measure clutchness--hitting with RISP, Late Inning Pressure Situations, October accomplishments--do not correlate from one year to the next. This is why Stats geeks say clutch is not a skill.

Turning to pitching stats, here's a graph showing the correlation of one year's ERA to the next year's (courtesy of JC Bradbury at the HardballTimes4):

As you can see from the best fit line the blob is slightly moving in the right direction. The r-squared is .13, about the same as batting average--better than nothing but we can do a lot better. Here's the same thing with strikeout rate:

Oh yeah! Now there's some correlation. Point-six-one baby! So we just learned that if we're trying to predict a pitcher's future performance we'd be much better off looking at his K-rate than ERA. SPOILER ALERT: stats that are independent of the pitcher's defense--K-rate, BB-rate and HR-rate--are the basis of a nerdy way to evaluate pitcher's called DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Stats).

If you'd like to do this wizardry yourself you easily can in Excel (here comes the original research of this piece). Just click on the paste function button, under Function Category select Statistical, under Function Name select Pearson (Galton?), then in the popup highlight one column or row of data for Array1 and another set of data for Array2. The result is the correlation between your two Things. Square it for the r-squared. Now I can tell you that in the Joe Morgan Red Reporter Fantasy League, the correlation between a team's standing and its number of roster moves is a whopping .73!

These Things are closely correlated...

Update [2007-8-7 9:57:58 by Red Menace]: I forgot to mention the important maxim that correlation does not equal causation (technically, as Gray points out, one should say correlation does not imply causation, because sometimes correlation does equal causation). Or to be properly anal: empirically observed covariation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for causality. Example: there's a strong correlation between ice cream sales and drownings. If one forgot that C does not imply C, one would say ice cream causes drownings. In fact both are affected by a third factor: hot weather. For a baseball example there's a slight positive correlation between strike outs and run scoring, but you shouldn't tell all your hitters to try to strike out more. Both strike outs and run scoring seem to be the result of going deep into counts by waiting for a pitch to drive.

This is too funny not to be on the front page. - JD

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070802/COL05/708020317/1090

The Hit King addressed a group of 7-14 year olds and their parents at a baseball camp this week. Some highlights (heresay):

-multiple s- and f-bombs

-winning is everything and if you get second place you're a loser

-an Elvis-like entourage

-he was bleeped off that Marge left money in her will to the zoo rather to him

-he saw more of Joe DiMaggio's junk than Marilyn Monroe did

Pete asked the kids to forgive his French. So obviously the organizers should have known that having Rose speak to children is an abominably horrible idea. My question to the Red Reporters: what fictional character does Pete most closely resemble? My money's on Bender from Futurama.

So I'm drinking some beer late at night and wanting to talk rumors. You may indulge or ignore me.

According to Jon Heyman the Angels have declared their intention to add an "impact" bat, and Adam Dunn is the second option to Mark Teixeira. Robothal says the Braves have a huge, Salty offer out for Tex, but that doesn't really make sense given how savvy Schuerholz is.

Wouldn't Dunn throw a monkey wrench into that Angels-smallball cult? If he goes there and they don't win the World Series will the blame entirely fall on him?

Heyman goes on to rank the best available starters thusly: Matt Morris, Livan Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Jason Jennings and Kyle Lohse. He adds that Jon Garland, Noah Lowry or Joe Blanton would easily jump to the top of the list.

Am I the only one who thinks Lohse is underrated on this list? Let's just look at this year:

            IP    HR   SO   BB   WHIP   ERA+  PRC   DERA
Morris    129.7   11   65   39   1.45   103    40    4.78
Livan     133.3   21   67   57   1.59    99    46    4.22
Contreras 118.7   12   68   45   1.61    73    29    4.68
Jennings   76.0    8   56   26   1.42    91    26    4.67
Lohse     131.7   16   80   33   1.33   100    42    4.48

Would someone really want Contreras over Kyle? Am I a crazy homer to think that our boy might be the best of these five?

If you're around to comment before I run out of beer or pass out I'll respond. Just to get things going I'll add controversial statements:

The US should legalize drugs, but not tax them.

Jeff Keppinger is an incredibly clutch hitter.

Helena Bonham Carter was way hotter when she acted in period pictures, before she got with Tim Burton and became quasi-goth and started always playing witches.

Update [2007-7-27 3:55:31 by Red Menace]: Also, seeing as the Simpsons movie is dropping today, what is your choice for the best episode? My money is on Lisa's Substitute from way back in 1991.

Today we're going to be looking at a lot of numbers, but I promise it won't be that bad. When sabermetricians talk about the Matrix they're referring to a table that shows the average number of runs a team scores in various baseball situations. Here's one such matrix:

Run Expectancy Matrix 2004

           OUTS
RUNNERS       0       1       2
    ---  0.5379  0.2866  0.1135
    1--  0.9259  0.5496  0.2460
    -2-  1.1596  0.7104  0.3359
    12-  1.4669  0.9577  0.4605
    --3  1.4535  0.9722  0.3623
    1-3  1.8540  1.2236  0.5219
    -23  2.1343  1.4717  0.6179
    123  2.2548  1.5946  0.8082

Stay with me! I promise it's not as bad as it looks. See, in the bottom left hand corner it shows that with no outs and the bases load a team scored an average of 2.2548 runs in 2004. Looking at the top right we see that with the bases empty and 2 outs we can "expect" a team to score only 0.1135 runs (or usually zero). These 24 possibilities, 0-2 outs, bases empty to loaded and every possibility in between, comprise every situation a team might find itself in.

 

It's important to note that these numbers were reached by looking at the results of real baseball games involving humans. We're not just pulling them out of our saberasses. We're looking at 2004, but any full year is enough of a sample and it doesn't change to any great degree. Here is a table showing 1999-2002. It's basically the same.

Now let's talk sacrifice bunts. Say we have a runner on first with no outs. Consulting the table above we see we can expect to score 0.9259 runs this inning. Not too shabby. But say we have the next batter lay down a bunt and selfishly sacrifice him to second. Now we have a runner on second and one out... and our run expectancy has fallen to 0.7104.

Sacrificing a runner from 2nd with no outs to 3rd with one is similarly hurtful (1.1596 to 0.9722). This gets to one of the core discoveries of the sabermetric movement: the importance of outs. In all but the most specific situations outs are more valuable than bases. In 1984 in their classic book The Hidden Game of Baseball Pete Palmer and John Thorn flatly stated, "The sacrifice bunt ... is a bad play. ...With the introduction of the lively ball, the sacrifice bunt should have vanished..." Basically a whole lot of what we learned about "good baseball", what we're constantly reminded of by broadcasters is wrong.

"Whoa..."

When someone talks about the batter in the second spot of the lineup needing to have bat control to hit behind the runner, they're essentially advocating sacrificing a runner over, thus hurting their scoring chances in the first inning. In 2007 this is not at all a good move. Earl Weaver once famously said, "If you play for one run, that's all you'll get."

But what if you only need one run? What if the score is tied in the 9th inning? It's important to remember that the run expectancy matrix takes an average. It includes all those big 6-run innings that sacrificing cuts down on. But if we only need to score one run we don't care about that. Here's a table that shows the chances of scoring 1 run:

2005 Scoring Expectation (percentage)
Runners   0 Out   1 Out   2 Outs
empty     28.0    16.5     7.1
1st       41.7    27.2    12.7
2nd       62.5    41.0    22.9
3rd       82.7    66.1    25.4
1+2       61.6    41.4    22.8
1+3       84.6    64.5    26.8
2+3       86.1    67.4    26.6
loaded    85.6    65.4    30.7

You should know now right where to look now. Runner on first no outs scores a run 41.7% of the time, runner on second 1 out scores 41% of the time. It's still not a good play. However moving a runner from second to third with the first out does increase your chances of scoring one run (62.5 to 66.1).

So far we've been assuming the sacrifice attempt will succeed. But what if it doesn't? Also doesn't bunting put pressure on the defense, which could lead to errors? Who's ready for another superfun table?!

Sacrifice Bunt Outcomes 2000-2005 (percentage)
Situation       Sacrifice  Success  Failure  DP
1st, 0 Out       72.9       13.6     11.2   2.0  
1st, 1 Out       71.6       10.6     14.4   3.2
2nd, 0 Out       69.5       18.6     11.4   0.5
1st+2nd, 0 Out   67.0       17.1     13.4   2.3

In this table, "Sacrifice" means it went according to plan--the runner advanced and an out was made. "Success" means an error, no outs were made, and/or the runner got an extra base--unexpected good stuff. "Failure" means the defense got the lead runner or an out was made and the runner couldn't advance. "DP" is a type of failure but is listed seperately because it's so devastating--a double play.

What we see here is that the secondary effects of the sacrifice--putting pressure on the defense, making stuff happen--are basically completely mitigated by the bad things that can happen. In the cases with a runner on first the failures and double plays occur more often than the successes. Bunting from second to third has more success.

Now remember when we were looking at the decreased scoring resulting from sacrificing a runner from first to second (whether overall or one run)? That came from comparing the before-and-after situations of a successful sacrifice, essentially assuming it would work. But we see here that it only works out aobut 85% of the time (adding the sacrifice and success columns) so it's even a worse play than we thought.

Before we end let's briefly talk about stealing bases. Stealing is all about weighing the benefit and the cost. Looking back at our matrix above we see that stealing second with no outs (going from 1-- 0 out to -2- O out) increases our run expectancy from 0.9259 to 1.1596. That's good. But if the runner got thrown out (empty, 1 out) our run expectancy would drop to 0.2866. That's bad. In fact that's way more bad than the successful stolen base was good.

Really smart guys with computers looked at this and many other factors and concluded that if you don't successfully steal at least 75% of the time you're better off not trying to steal at all. Previously conventional wisdom had it that if you succeeded over 50% of the time you were doing well (after all it's more good than bad, right? Wrong, because the cost of the bad far outweighs the benefit of the good).

The secondary effects of stealing bases--distracting the pitcher, pressuring the defense--don't add up to anything. Studies show that batters tend to fare worse with an agressive basestealer on first, possibly because they're taking good pitches or swinging at bad ones to protect the runner.

This is the basics of why saber-types are against "smallball." Outs are precious and giving them up leads to less scoring.

Further reading: The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball Chapter 9: Sacrifice Bunt, Chapter 11: Base Stealing

Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong Chapter 4-2: When Is One Run Worth More Than Two?

Baseball Prospectus Basics: Stolen Bases and How to Use Them

I know there's a dozen new diaries up, but what the hell... Let's have an off day non-baseball thread.

I'm off to see Transformers. I'm catching one of the sneak previews tonight even though my Soundwave costume isn't finished. Not even Michael Bay can keep me away. Like a lot of you I'm right in the sweet age for this one. Hopefully it's a huge hit and GI Joe gets greenlit.  I'll be back with a recap around midnight.

By the way, is anyone else incredibly cold this Monday?

Autobots wage their battles to destroy the evil forces of... the Decepticons!

Noise on Dunn heading out seems to be getting pretty loud. - JD

The Reds are ready to take offers on Adam Dunn, whose terrific power should draw decent interest despite the significant flaws in his game.

Lots of big names could be bandied about this trading season--Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen, Mark Teixeira and perhaps even Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera are among the stars who are candidates to be moved--but Dunn's is one name that's already out there as available, league sources told SI.com.

...All three Southern California teams could have interest in Dunn, as could anyone else seeking power. Dunn, who's making $10.5 million this season and has an option for $13 million next year (or a $500,000 buyout), is batting .250 with 15 home runs and 38 RBIs. While his power is elite, Dunn hasn't hit in the clutch. He's batting only .212 with runners in scoring position and .208 with runners on base.
...Trading Dunn makes sense for the Reds, especially if they can get solid pitching in return -- they have allowed the most runs in the National League this season. They are one of baseball's most underachieving teams, and a bit of a shakeup could do them good, anyway. No way it could hurt.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/06/11/monday.scoop/

I thought this diary could be a catch all for people getting together for this weekend's games.

I have an extra ticket for Friday's game. Chandrathan and Ash have expressed interest, so I'll give them first crack at it, but if not any of you wonderful people are welcome to help me hang Homer donuts. It's $30 (5 over face, which I thought was pretty good). Section 434 row A. We can get their early to get our Bronson hair-hats and see Homer warm up.

I know we're all expecting no less than a complete game shutout from Bailey this weekend, but I decided to check out what other highly regarded starter did in their first outing. I drew this list from memory so let me know who I left out (I excluded Liriano because he started in the pen and seemed to be on a short leash in his first start). I wanted to look at pitchers 22 and younger from the last couple years, but ended up including Lincecum and Weaver who were 23. It would be a lot better to just have 21 and under or pitchers with less than 300 minor league innings, but that would require going back a lot further to assemble the pool and I'm doing this half-assed. Someone else feel free to move on that.

            Age  D  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  HR  ERA  Pit  GmSc
Hughes       21  L  4.1 7  4   1   5   0  8.31   91   37  
Lincecum     23  -  4.1 5  5   5   5   2 10.38  100   33
Hamels       22  -  5   1  0   5   7   0  0.00   92   67
Verlander    22  L  5.1 7  4   3   4   0  6.75   95   39
Pelfrey      22  W  5   5  3   4   3   0  3.60  104   46
Weaver       23  W  7   3  0   1   5   0  0.00   97   75
Billingsley  21  -  5.1 6  2   2   3   0  3.38   98   49
Cain         20  L  5   3  2   4   2   1  3.60  103   51
Olsen        21  W  5.2 4  2   3   7   1  1.59   89   59
Sanchez      22  W  5.2 7  0   0   2   0  0.00   96   57
Duke         22  -  7   5  3   1   9   1  3.77  106   63

Total          4-2 59.2 53 25  29  52  5       1071  576  

                     IP   H     ER    BB    SO   HR    ERA   Pit    GmSc   WHIP   K/9  K/BB
Average             5.1 4.81  2.27  2.63  4.72  0.45  3.77  97.36   52.36  1.37  7.85  1.79

Obviously these guys were all on strict pitch counts. Hughes and Tiny Tim fared the worst so Homer has a chance to cement 2007's best debut. On the other hand Cleveland is second in the AL in runs per game. What are you folks predicting?

UPDATE by Slyde: I was able to run a report at Baseball Reference that gives all starters aged 21 and under who started in their first game pitched in the Majors since 1957. Check it out. A second version sorts by Game Score. Bailey has some tough competition among the Reds.

Man Mountain couldn't stand the HEAT so I'll try to channel him in the weekly diary of RJVasilak's ups and downs. Let's get purple!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (4-3)

To paraphrase Rudyard Kipling, winning the NL Central may simply be a matter of keeping your head while those around you are losing theirs.: To quote Arrow, "My mind's on fire / My soul's on fire / Feeling hot hot hot!

Ned Yost, tongue planted firmly in cheek: "We've been consistent within our division.": You really don't want to know where Ned Yost's tongue has been this week (hint: it's got a lot of HEAT).

2. St. Louis Cardinals (4-3)

Those sirens you hear are ambulances chasing St. Louis, whose players are dropping like flies.: Too... many... metaphors... cannot... process... Take over ken: "I thought it was ARod chasing Sirens in Toronto?"

Scott Spiezio was removed from Tuesday's game due to dizziness apparently caused by medication: (wink, wink, nudge, nudge)-- he's off the wagon.

Still, the Cards climbed into second place in the division, 6.5 games behind Milwaukee, mostly on the strength of old-fashioned Powerball : The Cards matched four of five numbers (18, 21, 22, 35) and the Powerball (16). They elected to take their payment in a lump sum.

Edmonds: "Everybody's starting to put it together a little bit." Well, not everybody. Kip Wells (2-10, 6.40 ERA) had another dreadful week: Little tip: if you ever interview Jim Edmonds don't contradict him to his face. He's one ornery SOB.

3. Cincinnati Reds (4-3)

Just when it appeared that they were going to roll over and play dead, the Reds posted their best record since Week #1.: And that wasn't enough to fetch us #1 in the Heat Index? 4-3 is as good as anyone else did. Throw us a bone!

Edwin Encarnacion went for nine for 24 in Week #9, including a career-high four hits vs. Houston on Thursday, and he hasn't made an error since he was recalled from AAA Louisville a couple of weeks ago.: Last week the Heatmaster had this to say: The Reds put Josh Hamilton (gastroenteritis) on the DL and recalled -- shudder -- Edwin Encarnacion, whose.218 batting average and team-leading six errors got him shipped off to AAA Louisville in Week #6. He was right to shudder. I believe he's now been burned! (by the HEAT!)

Encarnacion: "I've got more luck than I've had in the past.": Say it with me everyone!

(Seriously is this a shout-out to us? Are we the favorite NL Central site of the HEAT?)

Cincinnati turned four double plays on Saturday.: Ok, this is as good a time as any to mention this. Those double plays have helped us become 29th in the majors in defensive efficiency. The Pirates, tops in the index with 54 DPs, are 24th in the majors. Is there anything more pointless that a running tab of team double plays, which are greatly affected by baserunners allowed and groundball pitchers? For that matter why do we need fielding percentage, errors, team BA, and stolen bases (without caught stealing)? Ok, we now return to your regularly scheduled HEAT...

Milestone: On Wednesday, Adam Dunn drove in the 500th run of his career.: It goes without saying that he should have more, if only he would strike out less.

4. Houston Astros (2-4)

Welcome back, Brad Lidge!: He's back to closing? Crap, I have to pick him up! Oh, wait, he's exactly where he has been for a month. Touche, HEAT.

Drayton McLane, the team's owner, had some face time with Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura ("I have great confidence in both of them," he warned afterward), and he blew the kiss of death at Craig Biggio, saying, "Concessions need to be made.": Unfortunately for Biggio, Drayton McLane had applied his poison lipstick.

Ashley Judd was at the game on Wednesday.: HOT!

Chad Qualls (4-3, 4.55 ERA) gave up the deciding run vs. Cincinnati on Tuesday, back-to-back home runs to start a fateful ninth inning vs. St. Louis on Friday: You can't blame him though. He was fated to give up those homers. It was his destiny!

Rick White, who'd given up 14 earned runs and 21 hits since he came off the DL in mid May ("I'm stuck in a big pile of unlucky dog doo," he said): Courtesy of the Reds. Bow wow!

Carlos Lee, who's arguably the division's best off-season signing, leads the NL in RBI (52) and is tied for 10th in home runs (11).: That's a tad premature. This is like when your buddy marries a chick who you all know will lose her looks in a hurry. And when you're in Vegas for the bachelor party there's always one guy who won't stop about what a fox she is. Let's put a moratorium on statements like this until three years after the wedding or contract signing. Can we get someone moving on this?
Sorry, I was supposed to be channeling Man Mountain. That was someone else.    

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (2-5)

In war and baseball, everything revolves around arms.: And the high ground. And planes. And gloves and supply lines and outs.

Pittsburgh has two very good ones and a bunch that don't often shoot straight: They went cheap and got them used from the midway shooting range at the Allegheny County Fair. This is why there needs to be a salary cap in baseball.

6. Chicago Cubs (1-5)

Mount Zambrano erupted: For centuries the Wrigleys, a simply Pacific Island society, had lived peacefully at the base of Mount Zambrano on the North Side of the Windy Islands archipelago. Discovered by Clark Addison in 1902, the Wrigleys pass their days by fishing and consuming a fermented drink they call Ohldst'Ial. But the Wrigley's lived in constant fear of the mountain, which they named Big Zee. Their wise men attempt to pacify the volcano by ritualistically throwing balls onto the field of play of the island's past time, a simple stick-and-ball game the natives have played for years without becoming very adept at it. Please, give to the Zambrano relief fund. Many of these poor Wrigleys live on nothing but a diet of cheese and sausages and are sickly pale.

The Cubs were mere chum for the Marlins: So... somebody's trying to catch the Marlins?

extended its losing streak to six games (a season high), and fell nine games under .500 (a season low) before winning a consolation prize on Sunday.: The consolation prize was a rock tumbler and his-and-hers Huffy bikes. The grand prize was a week at Space Camp.

Besides, there's some poetry involved when a pitcher celebrates his 26th birthday by giving his catcher a fat lip.: Call for entries! Submit the best poem about a pitcher celebrating his 26th birthday by giving his catcher a fat lip and win week at Space Camp (consolation prizes include bonus points and a Webster Pocket Word Organizer).

the benefits of his rest were evident on Friday, when his passed ball and errant throw detonated Zambrano.: Teachers take note. If you chastise your students too much about using the passive voice the results could be this unfortunate overcompensation.

My error  Last week I reported that Ken Griffey had hit home run #547 of his career. It was #574.: And the HEAT never made another error again.

Until next time, it frightens me the awful truth of how HEAT the Index can be.

sigh...

Things are dreary in Redland, so I thought I'd embark on a futile exercise. First an anecdote: Last Wednesday I was watching the game at a bar. After Dunn's home run a friend and fellow Reds fan came in from smoking a cigarette. "Dunn just homered," I said. "Oh yeah?" he replied checking the score. "Huh. Figures it was a solo shot."

For some reason the unfairness of this increasingly common observance stuck with me. I later saw the same sentiment expressed here. It just feels like Dunn hits too many solo shots, right? (it certainly doesn't feel like he ever hits a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth, down three with a full count). So I reluctantly probe into the matter, fully aware that I have zero chance of convincing anyone of anything (and for the record I think Dunn has flaws).

2007 Bases Occupied Splits (apologies to those with low resolutions)

 I Split         G   GS  PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
 +-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-- ---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
    RISP          33      49  39       7  0  0  3  14  10   1  17   0   0   0   0   1         .179  .347  .410  .757  .211    99    71 RISP        
    ---           45     111  96      29  7  1  6   6  14   0  33   1   0   0   1   0         .302  .396  .583  .979  .404   170   117 ---          
    Men On        41      84  71      14  0  1  6  21  13   1  31   0   0   0   0   8         .197  .321  .479  .800  .235   109    77 Men On      
    1--           26      35  32       7  0  1  3   7   3   0  14   0   0   0   0   7         .219  .286  .563  .849  .267   119    83 1--          
    -2-           14      16  13       2  0  0  0   2   3   1   5   0   0   0   0   0         .154  .313  .154  .467  .250    26    15 -2-          
    --3            3       3   3       1  0  0  1   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   0         .333  .333 1.333 1.666  .000   296   239 --3          
    12-           17      19  14       2  0  0  1   3   5   0   8   0   0   0   0   1         .143  .368  .357  .725  .200   107    67 12-          
    1-3            6       6   6       1  0  0  0   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   0         .167  .167  .167  .334  .250   -15   -23 1-3          
    -23            2       2   1       1  0  0  1   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0        1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 undef  1115   917 -23          
    123            3       3   2       0  0  0  0   2   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0         .000  .333  .000  .333  .000     4    -8 123

 

Dunn's .179 avg with RISP certainly won't win him any fans, but our concern here is chiefly the home runs.

Bases Empty 6
Runners on 6
1-run 6
2-run 4
3-run 2
4-run 0

I strongly suspect this isn't out of the ordinary. Here's Griffey's 11 home runs:

Bases Empty 6
Runners on 5
1-run 6
2-run 4
3-run 1
4-run 0

I was in a bar when Griffey smacked his tonight (this seems to be a habit with me) and I didn't hear anyone lament that it was a solo shot.

Does anyone have the average percentage of homeruns that are solo, etc? We've played this game before, but here are the career percentage of various players solo shots to their total home runs.

Derek Jeter    67.7%
David Ortiz    63.3%
Barry Bonds    59.1%
Adam Dunn      56.6%
Reggie Jackson 54.7%
Alex Rodriguez 52.2%

If we continue won't we find that nearly all players hit 50-60 percentage of their homeruns with no one on base (note:Jeter, as a frequent leadoff man is penalized in the above exercise. What's Big Papi's excuse?)

Can we retired this odd criticism? If Dunn leads off an inning (batting sixth) and hits a home run can he be praised? If blame must be passed can it be given to the players who made out before Dunn reached the plate? Can I stop this?

Probably not. If it feels like all of Dunn's home runs are solo shots there's no arguing with that. The Reds keep losing and I'm sad.

I know things are bad right now, but I think we have to focus on the whole and consider how much better this team is than it was the same time last year. Wayne Krivsky has done a lot of good by bringing in solid Baseball Guys who play the game the Right Way. This is paying huge dividends even if the results aren't quite there yet.

I can't tell you how many times last year Adam Dunn or Edwin Encarnacion put a bat on the ball only to exit the batter's box and run down the third base line. They weren't playing the game the right way! Fortunately Brook Jacoby and Jerry Narron have made examples of them and that sorry sight has become much less frequent.

From April 13 through the 22 last year, Austin Kearns went to bat with a Prince AirDrive Midplus Racquet. He had no sacrifice flies during that time and later spent 15 days on the DL with tennis elbow.

When considering Krivsky's moves one has to look at the WHOLE picture. He inherited a roster full of players who didn't do the little things and play the game the right way. Remember Vladimir Kaminsky, the quick-skating fourth outfielder who could deliver massive checks? No doubt he had talent, but he just wasn't a Baseball Guy.

May 27, 2006: Felipe Lopez once again fails to play the game the right way.

BOTTOM LINE: I have to conclude we're better off now than we were. If our boys can just hustle and do the little things we should be all right.