SB Nation User Blog: Red Menace

RR Previews Season Finale: Los Angeles Dodgers

Red Menace — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 22:08:29 -0000

Sometimes there's a team—and I’m talkin’ about the Dodgers here, sometimes there’s a team, well, they’re the team for their time and place. They fit right in there. And that's the Dodgers. In Los Angeles. And even if they’re a great team—and the Dodgers are most certainly that--quite possibly the greatest in Southern California, which would place them high in the runnin’ for greatest worldwide. Sometimes there's a team... Ah, I lost my train of thought here.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (now the third oldest!)

Manager: Joe Torre

General Manager: Ned Colletti

2008:
84-78 (1st)
700 RS 648 RA 87-75 pythag
Won Division Series (3-0) over Cubs, Lost NLCS (4-1) to Phillies

Out:
SP Derek Lowe
SP Brad Penny
CL Takashi Saito
RP Chan Ho Park
2B Jeff Kent
OF Andruw Jones
IF Nomar Garciaparra

In:
2B Orlando Hudson
SP Randy Wolf
Util Mark Loretta
SP Claudio Vargas

Lineup (ZiPS Projections):
C Russell Martin 26, (.281/.374/.430)
1B James Loney 25, (.295/.347/.456)
2B Orlando Hudson 31, (.290/.363/.431)
3B Casey Blake 35, (.277/.346/.458)
SS Rafael Furcal 31, (.286/.358/.411)
LF Manny Ramirez 37, (.297/.394/.521)
CF Matt Kemp 24, (.295/.342/.477)
RF Andre Ethier 27, (.292/.363/.475)

Mark Loretta
Blake DeWitt
Brad Ausmus
Juan Pierre

Rotation
Chad Billingsley 24, (3.35 ERA 204 IP)
Hiroki Kuroda 34, (3.84 ERA 171 IP)
Clayton Kershaw 21, (4.21 ERA 154 IP)
Randy Wolf 32, (4.68 ERA 127 IP)
James McDonald (R) 24, (5.46 ERA 140 IP)

Bullpen
CL Jonathan Broxton 25, (2.78 ERA 81IP)
Hong-Chih Keo
Corey Wade
Guillermo Mota
Ramon Troncoso

DL
Delwyn Young
Claudio Vargas
Jason Schmidt (final year of contract, possible return--?)

AAA
Jeff Weaver (possible long relief)
SS Ivan DeJesus
LHP Scott Elbert
Eric Milton (!)

2009 Projections:
CHONE: 82-80 (1st)
PECOTA: 93-69 (1st)

Cincinnati Series

at LA 7/20, 7/21, 7/22
home 8/28, 8/29, 8/30

Last year the Los Angeles Dodgers won their first playoff series since 1988 (when you’ll recall Benny “the Jet” Rodriguez stole home to win the World Series). This was in large part thanks to the aquisition of Manny Ramirez. After July 31st they were 54-54, 2 games back of the Diamondbacks and averaging 4.16 runs per game. From August 1st on, with Manny in blue they averaged 4.63 runs per game.

Here's another one of those fun divisions between the stat heads and the traditional thinking. The Dodgers' offense didn't turn it on because Manny was protecting the other hitters (yes, protection is basically a myth). That extra half run per game came from Manny's bat (.396/.489/.743) and some long overdue additions by subtraction. Andruw Jones (OPS+ 34) had 224 PA before August 1st, 14 PA thereafter. Juan Pierre (OPS+73) went from 321 PA to 85. As for Andre Ethier OPSing .779 before Manny and 1.097 after? Hmm... correlation is not causation? It should be noted that Ethier's pitches seen didn't change with Manny hitting behind him. Regardless the Dodgers offense should be strong all season long this year.

The pitching is not as certain. If you were watching the non-Reds Opener last night you know Derek Lowe has taken his sinkerball to Atlanta. Randy Wolf has started 241 games while the other four starters have fewer than half as many starts in the Majors. Billingsley is great, but if rookie James McDonald doesn't work out (or when Wolf or Kuroda inevitably make a DL trip) the next options are Didn't-you-used-to-be Jason Schmidt and (drumroll)... Eric Milton. A Pedro signing might be in order. LA did lead the league in ERA+ last year so they could fall quite a bit and still be competitive.

The Dodgers could be in position to make improvements at the deadline. If what a lot of people expect is true, small and mid market teams might be selling off players and a large market like LA should capitalize. GM Ned Colletti has never been one to horde his prospects so he should be dealing.

Last year the Dodgers won 7 of 8 from the Reds, but this isn't your dad's Reds-Dodgers rivalry. The teams play only six games--3 in LA in late July and 3 in Cincinnati in late August. Rafael Furcal does have a .965 OPS against the Reds and the aforementioned Eric Milton is hiding somewhere in the Dodgers' system.

And that concludes the 2009 Red Reporter team previews. But don't go anywhere because in two weeks we'll have new previews of the American League plus the premiere of Parks & Recreation with Amy Poehler. Play ball!

SIS: Oscar Pool / Open Thread

Red Menace — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:26:59 -0000

I know we just had a big movie thread, but I thought there might be interest in the Academy Awards tonight. We can dish about the outfits, that dreamy Hugh Jackman, this year's movies and do a little gambling.

I started a pool at www.funofficepools.com. The site is a little clunky, but it's way better than some of the others I came across. After registering an account (free) click join pools

http://www.funofficepools.com/joinpool.php

Choose 'Oscars' from the drop menu. Pool Name Red Reporter Password Taveras. It would be helpful if you make your Selection name the same or similar to your RR screen name. The Deadline is 8pm tonight.

To make things interesting I'll send an envelop to the winner, but I can't legally promise that it will include Academy screener DVD copies of all the best picture nominees (I also can't promise that on request I will swap out The Reader or Benjamin Button for something better like The Wrestler).

Bereavement Pool Update

Red Menace — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 22:19:16 -0000

Bereavement Pool Update

Two weeks to go in the bereavement pool. Boobs hasn't been around much lately so I'll throw this up. boobs' roommate (how do we know this isn't also boob?!) scored a unique hit with Sammy Baugh and the roommate and I each got W. Mark Felt. Hey--a use for FanShots!

Update: also Brian B's wife got Studs Terkel... and we have a new leader.

Here are the updated rankings:

1. Brian B's wife: 197 points (Charlton Heston, Robert Mondavi, Bo Diddley, Studs Terkel)
2. boobs: 185 points (Bobby Murcer, Tony Snow)
3. boobs' roommate: 166 points (Charlton Heston, Jesse Helms, Sammy Baugh, W. Mark Felt)
4. ctnyc: 136 points (Harvey Korman, Paul Newman)
5. Red Menace: 117 points (Charlton Heston, Bo Diddley, W. Mark Felt)
6. 3 fast: 66 points (Estelle Getty)
7. Madville: 61 points (Bob Howsam)
8. Alan: 46 points (Bo Diddley)
9. BLee: 41 points (Charlton Heston)
9. JD: 41 points (Charlton Heston)
9. JD's wife: 41 points (Charlton Heston)

And here are the updated rosters:

3 fast

1. Stephen Hawking
2. Phyllis Diller
3. Queen Elizabeth II
4. Mary Kate Olsen $$
5. Keith Richards
6. Cesar Laurean $$
7. Nelson Mandela $$
8. Dick Vitale $$
9. Dick Clark
10. Joe Paterno $$
11. Fidel Castro
12. Yogi Berra $$
13. Ariel Sharon
14. Stan Musial $$
15. Jerry Lewis $$
16. Zsa Zsa Gabor
17. John Wooden
18. Jack Kevorkian
19. Billy Graham
20. Estelle Getty $$

Alan
1. Dom DeLouise $$
2. Jack Klugman
3. Margaret Thatcher
4. Gary Glitter $$
5. Kenny Baker $$
6. David Prowse $$
7. Stephen Hawking
8. Lester "Beetlejuice" Green $$
9. Lou Henson $$
10. Hamid Karzai
11. Bo Diddley
12. Diego Maradona $$
13. Pervez Musharraf
14. Roger Ebert
15. Andy Fordham $$
16. Harold Pinter
17. Roh Tae-woo $$
18. Sirajuddin Haqqani $$
19. Howard Dill $$
20. Edna Parker $$

BLee
1. Kirk Douglas
2. Charlton Heston
3. George H.W. Bush
4. Al Davis $$
5. Billy Graham
6. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari $$
7. George Steinbrenner
8. B.B. King $$
9. Omar bin Laden $$
10. James Earl Jones $$
11. Charlie Watts $$
12. Ralph Wilson $$
13. Jimmy Carter
14. Amy Winehouse
15. Jimmy "Superfly" Snuka $$
16. Abe Vigoda
17. Pete Doherty
18. Paul McCartney $$
19. Fidel Castro
20. Eddie Van Halen $$

boobs
1. Amy Winehouse
2. Farrah Fawcett
3. Elizabeth Edwards
4. Fidel Castro
5. Tony Snow $$
6. Tony Yayo $$
7. Bobby Murcer $$
8. Muhammad Ali
9. Soupy Sales $$
10. George Steinbrenner
11. Prodigy from Mobb Deep $$
12. Zsa Zsa Gabor
13. Billy Graham
14. Lil Wayne $$
15. Jack Kevorkian
16. Doyle Brunson $$
17. Fyvush Finkel $$
18. Sen. Robert Byrd $$
19. Pete Doherty
20. Bob Barker

boobs' mom
1. Barack Obama $$
2. Dick Cheney
3. Keith Richards
4. Ernest Borgnine
5. Phyllis Diller
6. Ted Kennedy $$
7. Jimmy Carter
8. John Travolta $$
9. Farrah Fawcett
10. Elizabeth Edwards
11. Kirk Douglas
12. Colin Farrell $$
13. Joan Collins $$
14. Elizabeth Taylor
15. Liza Minelli $$
16. Robin Williams $$
17. Loretta Lynn $$
18. Brigitte Nielsen $$
19. Connie Stevens $$
20. John Daly $$

boobs' roommate
1. Elizabeth Edwards
2. John Wooden
3. W. Mark Felt
4. Ariel Sharon
5. Billy Graham
6. Ralph Stanley $$
7. Sammy Baugh $$
8. Lee MacPhail $$
9. Bobby Doerr $$
10. Russell Watson $$
11. Charlton Heston
12. Jesse Helms
13. Fidel Castro
14. Karl Malden
15. Prince Philip $$
16. Margaret Thatcher
17. Ali al-Sistani $$
18. Betty Ford
19. Stuart Scott $$
20. Kirk Douglas

Brian B
1. Mike Tyson ## $$
2. Ralph Houk $$
3. Billy Graham
4. Ed McMahon $$
5. John Wooden
6. Elizabeth Edwards
7. Millvina Dean $$
8. Kirk Douglas
9. Elizabeth Taylor
10. Paul Harvey
11. Ariel Sharon
12. Walter Cronkite
13. Orlando Thomas $$
14. Larry Hagman $$
15. Andy Griffith
16. Don Baylor $$
17. Rowdy Roddy Piper $$
18. Farrah Fawcett
19. Steve Smith (former Raiders running back) $$
20. Gary Coleman $$

Brian B's wife
1. Fidel Castro
2. Ariel Sharon
3. Eunice Kennedy Shriver
4. Studs Terkel $$
5. Jack Klugman
6. Kirk Douglas
7. Charlton Heston
8. Paul Harvey
9. Bo Diddley
10. Olivia de Havilland $$
11. Zsa Zsa Gabor
12. Britney Spears ##
13. Roger Ebert
14. Ron Santo
15. Miep Gies $$
16. Hamid Karzai
17. Amy Winehouse
18. Karl Malden
19. Betty Ford
20. Robert Mondavi $$

ctnyc
1. Harvey Korman $$
2. Karl Malden
3. Andy Griffith
4. Pervez Musharraf
5. Fidel Castro
6. John Wooden
7. Paul Newman $$
8. Dick Clark
9. Robert Downey Jr. $$
10. Jack Klugman
11. Monte Irvin $$
12. Robert McNamara $$
13. Amy Winehouse
14. Conrad Dobler $$
15. Nancy Reagan
16. George H.W. Bush
17. Phyllis Diller
18. Abe Vigoda
19. Muhammad Ali
20. Walter Cronkite

Gray
1. Doris Lessing $$
2. Rick Majerus $$
3. Pete Doherty
4. Amy Winehouse
5. Haley Joel Osment $$
6. Jesse Helms
7. Farrah Fawcett
8. Betty Ford
9. Fidel Castro
10. Pervez Musharraf
11. Jack Kevorkian
12. Ariel Sharon
13. Kirk Douglas
14. Louis Farrakhan
15. Billy Graham
16. Kenneth Arrow $$
17. Paul Samuelson $$
18. Ronald Coase $$
19. Maya Angelou $$
20. Nadine Gordimer $$

JD
1. Muhammed Ali
2. Elizabeth Taylor
3. Amy Winehouse
4. Pete Doherty
5. Andy Dick $$
6. Bob Barker
7. Charlton Heston
8. John Wooden
9. Barbara Bush $$
10. Kirstie Alley $$
11. Queen Elizabeth
12. Abe Vigoda
13. Gerald Ford ++
14. Fidel Castro
15. JD Salinger $$

JD's wife
1. Britney Spears $$
2. Lindsay Lohan $$
3. Betty White $$
4. Hillary Clinton $$
5. Clint Eastwood $$
6. Gladys Knight $$
7. Harry Morgan $$
8. Courtney Love
9. Charlton Heston
10. Dick Clark
11. Elizabeth Taylor
12. Amy Whinehouse
13. Mickey Rooney $$
14. Lady Bird Johnson ++
15. Fidel Castro

Madville
1. Bob Howsam $$
2. Bill Clinton $$
3. Sally Field $$
4. Michael Vick $$
5. Rush Lumbaugh $$
6. Courtney Love
7. Wolfgang Puck $$
8. Stephen Hawking
9. Morgan Freeman $$
10. George Lucas $$
11. Hal Holbrook $$
12. Boy George $$
13. David Lee Roth $$
14. Mary Tyler Moore $$
15. Jack Nicholson $$
16. Elton John $$
17. Dick Cheney
18. Josh Hamilton $$
19. David Copperfield $$
20. Jane Fonda $$

Man Mountain
1. John Wooden
2. Ernest Borgnine
3. Billy Graham
4. Seamus Heaney $$
5. Nancy Reagan
6. Sir Bobby Robson $$
7. George Mitchell $$
8. Stephen Baldwin $$
9. Patricia Neal $$
10. Maxine Kumin $$
11. Natasha Lyonne $$
12. Ruth Bader Ginsburg $$
13. Elizabeth Taylor
14. Muhammad Ali
15. Ed Asner $$
16. Harold Pinter
17. Adam "Pacman" Jones $$
18. Amy Winehouse
19. Bashar Assad $$
20. Stephen Hawking

Red Menace
1. Farrah Fawcett
2. Ron Springs $$
3. Muhammad Ali
4. Stephen Hawking
5. Ron Santo
6. Louis Farrakhan
7. George Steinbrenner
8. Harold Pinter
9. Ronnie Biggs $$
10. Jack Kevorkian
11. Ariel Sharon
12. Bo Diddley
13. Fidel Castro
14. Charlton Heston
15. W. Mark Felt
16. Peter O'Toole $$
17. Eunice Kennedy Shriver
18. Billy Graham
19. Kirk Douglas
20. King-Father Norodom Sihanouk $$

Legend:
$$: Unique pick, worth 25-point bonus.
++: JD and wife entered only 15 picks, and each picked a person who was already dead. I got their entries right up against the deadline, so they have accepted their disadvantaged fate.
##: Replaced Steve Fossett.

Check here for the originial post.

MLB.com drops Silverlight for Adobe Flash

Red Menace — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 06:27:25 -0000

MLB.com drops Silverlight for Adobe Flash

I have to think MLB.com is going to be better next year. They dropped Microsoft's Silverlight and are going with Flash.

I gave up trying to watch games online last year.

/FanGasm!

What your NL MVP says about you

Red Menace — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 06:16:54 -0000

At 2 PM today the BBWAA will announce the NL MVP. In years past I've compared the candidates and invited debate on the matter. Increasingly I've come to realize that these exercises inevitably deteriorate into people talking past each other. Everyone has their idea of what the MVP is. So let's look at how this year's candidates match up to the justifications.

For the record here are the voting guidelines:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

UPDATE: It's Pujols.

If Albert Pujols is your MVP:

Your MVP doesn't have to come from a playoff team. You see the MVP as the "Most Outstanding Player" award and Pujols was easily the best player in the league. You may look at both offense and defense and use advanced stats to determine value, or you may simply base your determination on traditional triple crown stats. Pujols dominated by any measure.

Bernie Miklasz of the St Louis Post Dispatch carries the flag: Being a man of limited intellect, I've tried to simplify the MVP process. It comes down to this for me: the best player with the best overall statistics has the most value to his team. What I refuse to do in MVP voting is penalize a great player because the team around him is deficient.

or:

You adjust for "value" based on team standings, but don't draw the cutoff point at the Playoffs. Pujols' Cardinals led the Wild Card into August and they finished with a respectable 86 wins.

As Ken Rosenthal writes: But while I prefer my MVP to at least experience pennant-race pressure if he does not play for a postseason qualifier, the Cardinals contended practically all season, greatly exceeding every expert's (ahem) expectations. Remove Pujols from the equation, and the team would not have been nearly as competitive.

If Ryan Howard is your MVP:

You like your MVP to be from a playoff team. Furthermore you want him to guide his team into the playoffs by hitting well down the stretch. You believe the games in September are more important than the games in April. On Sept 15 Randy Miller from phillyburbs.com wrote: Howard is doing his part and more with a .356 average, 10 homers and 25 RBIs over his last 19 games. In September, he's batting .354 with seven homers in 13 games, which is typical. Like Hank Aaron you might be impressed by Howard's superior HR and RBI totals (and not be bothered by his low batting average). You're not one of these posters from The Good Phight: Ryan Howard is not a legitimate MVP candidate, and it's not even close.

If Brad Lidge is your MVP:

You don't buy into the recent theory that closers are inherently fungible. You're impressed with perfection--41-41 in save chances (plus the playoffs, though that shouldn't count). You probably favor Francisco Rodriguez in the AL. Like Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News you like talking about mental toughness and where a team would be without a player. Like Brian Joseph of USA Today's Baseball Digest Daily you may be trying to be contrarian (actually that's true of many of the non-Albert picks): Where Lidge ranks among the candidates for this year's NL MVP is somewhere near the bottom of the barrel -- probably even below teammates Ryan Howard and Chase Utley -- but make no mistake about it, Brad Lidge is the right choice for this year's MVP.

If Manny Ramirez is your MVP:

You love a good storyline. You want your MVP to drag his team into the playoffs. Manny has the stretch kick of Howard with the added excitement of the big acquisition. You may, like Gerry Fraley of The Sporting News, believe Manny made his teammates better: Juan Pierre hit a home run. For that reason alone, Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez merits strong consideration in the National League MVP race. You don't view value as a counting stat (or pay little attention to voter guideline #2). ESPN's Scoop Jackson: True, it's only been 48 games of impact, but he's done more for one team in 48 games than any of the others have done (with possible the exception of Pujols) over the season. Tim Montemayor of TSN and Jon Heyman of SI agree, and agree to ignore the part of the season where Manny--so the story goes--played beneath his abilities to force a trade. It was in the other league after all. You probably think Manny's biggest competition is CC Sabathia.

If CC Sabathia is your MVP:

You like the good story. You like the stretch kick. You have no problems going with a pitcher who didn't throw many innings. You like it when your candidate's good play correlates with the team's winning streak. Basically you're Mike Greenberg (perhaps to save face the site mike-greenberg.com which hosted his argument no longer exists. Here's the BTTF discussion of it).

You certainly aren't LaVelle Neal of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune or George King of the New York Post, who left Pedro Martinez completely off their 10-deep ballots in 1999 because he was a pitcher who only appeared in 31 games.

If Carlos Delgado is your MVP:

You've been in a coma since mid-September. Ok, no one thinks Delgado is the MVP anymore. But before the Phillies pulled away from the Mets many were advocating his candidacy. If you were one of them you probably like Ryan Howard or Manny Ramirez now. You liked the redemption story. You discounted the beginning of the year when Delgado hit horribly. You liked that he OPSed 1.049 in September (or slightly worse than Pujols during that period).

If Brandon Phillips is your MVP:

You're a hopeless homer. Also, why no love for Joey Votto?

Fantasy Football--the fierce urgency of now

Red Menace — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:12:07 -0000

We need to get moving on a RR fantasy football league if we want to be able to do a live draft on Yahoo. The past few years we were forced to draft on Red Reporter which was a pain (although the new system should alleviate that if it comes to it).

The following people expressed interest the last time the waters were tested:

sonant1
MixFMKyle
Charlie Scrabbles
BK
Lakeman
snohio
jacob brumfield
crolfer
obc
Red Menace
Officer Dibble
greg456
chesirecat
chandrathan
Caleb (if needed)

In addition the following were involved last year (sorry if I missed you)

Ash
Brian B
sledridge (where has he been?)

Anyone else is welcome to throw their hat into the ring now. So far it looks like 14 strong committments with a potential for 18, plus whoever jumps in now. I think we should be able to get to 20 so we can have two leagues. That would increase the chances that everyone could make their draft time.

What time works best for drafting? 7-ish on a weeknight? Stay tuned to this thread for league-joining info which will probably be forthcoming.

UPDATE

The league with a live draft will be this Wednesday at 7:45pm Eastern (8 was unavailable and the next time was 10). If enough people really have a problem starting this soon we can move to Thursday, but the times would still be 7:45 or 10.

League ID #: 554660 (Yahoo)
Password: cincy

The max teams is 14. You can still edit your rankings and let the computer autodraft for you if you like. However there is also an

Autodraft league
League ID #: 554710
Password: cincy

I will hand over commissionership and drop out once enough people join this one. Once everyone is ready the commish will tell the computer to do the autodraft. There’s more time to get a crew together here and fantasy first timers are welcome to join as it should be a more mellow scene.

Prediction Time 2008!

Red Menace — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 04:51:25 -0000

Happy Opening Day Eve everybody. Time to show off our powers of prognosticating. First some kudos are in order. Here's how we did last year.

By far the biggest mistake was the Dodgers, who most everybody had winning the NL West, We got totally Pierred. Nobody had the Rockies anywhere close to the playoffs The DBacks and Indians made a lot of people look smart, while the late collapses of the Mets and Brewers hurt a lot.

Two Red Reporters, teb7 and ken, correctly called 6 of the 8 playoff teams. teb7 missed on the Brewers and the Padres as a Wild Card. ken missed on the Dodgers and Mets, although he did have the Mets behind the Phillies.

greg456, Alan (young, handsome Alan) and ctnyc all correctly picked the Red Sox to win the World Series. Way to go out on a limb there, fellas. Now on to 2008...

Order the divisions, noting the Wild Card winners, pick the World Series participants and winner, and add the following awards for each league:
MVP
Cy Young
Rookie of the Year
'Bounceback'
'Breakthrough'
Take those last two to mean whatever you like, and feel free to add or ignore these categories. Your picks can be serious or Reds-homerific (or day I say, both). I'm making my picks in a separate comment this year to save me some embarrassment.

Fantasy Football recap

Red Menace — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 08:23:05 -0000

Congrats to Officer Dibble for winning the Red Reporter Fantasy Football league. Despite finishing the regular season with a .500 record, his Vegas Strippers got hot at the right time. This is the second consecutive RR Fantasy Football crown for OD. Dynasty!

He defeated sonant1 in the finals by 1 point. Reggie Wayne's fumble in the Sunday night game was the difference.

Brian B downed MixFMKyle in the third place game. Kyle is on his way to becoming the Atlanta Braves after dominating the regular season for the second straight year with nothing to show for it.

RR Mitchell Report Pool

Red Menace — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 02:48:27 -0000

Tomorrow is the long awaited Mitchell Report Day. Rumors abound that the Senator's findings will name 60-80 current and former Major League players. Here's your chance for wild speculation.

The Rules

List ten players, 1 through 10, that you believe will be "named" (mentioned in any pejorative way in the Mitchell Report). You'll receive 10 points if your #1 name is listed, 9 points for #2 and so on (like an NFL confidence pool). As a bonus any former Reds players will result in double points (so ten points if you had Frank Robinson at #6 on your list and he's named).

Note the list of ineligible players below! Any player who has admitted usage, tested positive, or been implicated through some sort of leak is not acceptable. Be creative and show your biases.

Please use this diary only to post your list of 10. For questions or further steroid talk use this one.

And folks, please just scroll quickly to the bottom and make your list. Don't look at other peoples' picks. That would be cheating on a steroid pool, which is way too meta for me to handle. Also no changing your list with 'Reply to'. The deadline is 2:00 PM on Thursday. Good luck!

===Ineligible Players==

Admitted Users (17)
Ken Caminiti - Steroids
Barry Bonds - Steroids
Bobby Estalella - Steroids and hGH
Jason Giambi - Steroids and hGH
Jeremy Giambi - Steroids
Armando Rios - Steroids and hGH
Benito Santiago - Steroids and hGH
Gary Sheffield - Steroids
Jose Canseco - Steroids and hGH
Tom House - Steroids
Wally Joyner - Steroids
Paxton Crawford - Steroids and hGH
Jason Grimsley - Steroids and hGH
Jim Leyritz - hGH
David Segui - hGH
John Rocker - hGH
Paul Byrd - hGH
Implicated Players (29)
Mark McGwire - Steroids
Manny Alexander - Steroids
Chuck Finley - Steroids
Marvin Bernard - Steroids and hGH
Randy Velarde - Steroids
Wilson Alvarez - Steroids and hGH
Bret Boone - Steroids
Ozzie Canseco - Steroids
Juan Gonzalez - Steroids and hGH
Dave Martinez - Steroids
Ivan Rodriguez - Steroids and hGH
Tony Saunders - Steroids and hGH
Miguel Tejada - Steroids
Lenny Dykstra - Steroids and hGH
Dave Hollins - Steroids
Roger Clemens - "PE Drugs"
Andy Pettitte - "PE Drugs"
Brian Roberts - Steroids
Jay Gibbons - Steroids
Gary Matthews Jr. - hGH
Jerry Hairston Jr. - hGH
David Bell - hCG
Darren Holmes - Steroids and hGH
Rick Ankiel - hGH
Troy Glaus - Steroids
Scott Schoeneweis - Steroids
Matt Williams - Steroids and hGH
Jose Guillen - Steroids and hGH
Ismael Valdez - hGH
MLB Posiive Tests (16)
Alex Sanchez - Unknown
Jorge Piedra - Unknown
Agustin Montero - Unknown
Jamal Strong - Unknown
Juan Rincon - Unknown
Rafael Betancourt - Unknown
Rafael Palmeiro - Stanzolol (Steroid)
Ryan Franklin - Unknown
Mike Morse - Unknown
Carlos Almanzar - Unknown
Felix Heredia - Unknown
Matt Lawton - Boldenone (Steroid)
Yusaku Iriki - Unknown
Guillermo Mota - Unknown
Juan Salas - Unknown
Dan Serafini - Unknown
Non-MLB Positive Tests (2)
Termel Sledge - Precursor (Andro)
Derrick Turnbow - Precursor (Andro)
.end
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NL CY - Any love for Harang?

Red Menace — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 07:48:36 -0000

For the last of these awards diaries I'm breaking format. There's been a lot of consternation here over Aaron Harang's "poor" showing in last year's Cy Young voting (he didn't appear on a single ballot). For my part I've been dismissive of these concerns. The question now is will he get a vote for 2007? The hardware gets handed out on Thursday.

The important thing to remember is each writer only names three pitchers on his or her ballot. I see two locks and a handful of challengers for the Harangatan. The fancy stats are Defensive-independent ERA and Value Over Replacement Pitcher from Baseball Prospectus, and Pitcher Runs Created and Win Shares from The Hardball Times.

Jake Peavy ERA DERA ERA+ IP WHIP K BB HR PRC VORP WS
19-6 2.54 2.88 159 223.3 1.06 240 68 13 143 77.0 23
Peavy should win in a landslide. I would be shocked if weren't named on every ballot. He was first in ERA (any way you slice it, although adjusting for park or defense does lessen his lead), first in wins, strikeouts and K-rate, first in Win Shares and he leads in WHIP, VORP and PRC by large margins.

Brandon Webb ERA DERA ERA+ IP WHIP K BB HR PRC VORP WS
18-10 3.01 3.30 156 236.3 1.18 194 72 12 129 66.1 22
The defending champ was second to Peavy in PRC, VORP, WS, Wins and ERA. He led the league in innings, complete games and shutouts. He too should be named on every ballot. He might steal a few first place votes from Peavy because he led his surprise team to the playoffs and because he threw 42 consecutive scoreless innings in a row, challenging Hershiser's record. It should be remembered that despite this amazing feat, his season on the whole still lagged Peavy's by almost any measure. He might get Shannon Stewart love because his team made their move during his streak.

If we assume that these two will be named on every ballot (and I think they should be) that only leaves one spot for Aaron. The contenders:

Brad Penny ERA DERA ERA+ IP WHIP K BB HR PRC VORP WS
16-4 3.03 2.99 151 208.0 1.30 135 73 9 108 61.7 21

I think Penny is Harang's stiffest competition. He's third in ERA+, VORP and Win Shares. He won as many games as Harang and his ERA looks very pretty. Harang's advantage comes in his peripherals. He pitched over 20 more innings, struck out many more and walked fewer, thus putting less responsibility on his defense. PRC aknowledges this. Will the voters?

John Smoltz ERA DERA ERA+ IP WHIP K BB HR PRC VORP WS
14-8 3.11 3.48 137 205.7 1.18 197 47 18 112 56.7 16
Tim Hudson
16-10 3.33 3.56 128 224.3 1.22 132 53 10 108 59.7 19

Smoltz and Hudson both tallied slightly more VORP than Harang. Timmy was credited with 2 more Win Shares. Smoltz and Harang tied for the league leade in K/BB ratio, but Harang threw 26 more innings. The big key here is that both of their ERA advantages over Harang disappear when we adjust for defense. Is Andruw still that much of a factor?

Roy Oswalt ERA DERA ERA+ IP WHIP K BB HR PRC VORP WS
14-7 3.18 3.26 138 212.0 1.32 154 60 14 110 59.8 18

I still maintain that he's slipping, but he did best Harang in VORP, Win Shares and ERA and its derivatives. And now our candidate:

Aaron Harang ERA DERA ERA+ IP WHIP K BB HR PRC VORP WS
16-6 3.73 3.38 125 231.7 1.14 218 52 28 119 53.8 17

The case for Harang as the (at least) third best pitcher in the league: He's a solid third to Peavy and Webb in PRC. His WHIP was 5th in the league but only Peavy's from this group was better (Young, Hamels and Lilly were the others). He was second to Webb in IP, second to Peavy in strikeouts. His strikeout to walk ratio tied for first in the league with Smoltz's. He threw 2 complete games (Webb led with 4).

The case against Harang as the third best pitcher in the league: He was 7th in the league in VORP (behind every pitcher here). His ERA is really bad amongst this elite group. Before you say GABP, his ERA+ is still last in this group. A better rallying point is the Reds' defense. Harang's DERA jumps the two Braves', is pretty close to Webb's, but still lags Peavy's and Penny's by a good measure. He's sixth in Win Shares, topping only Smoltz. Harang's major problem was giving up home runs. I thought there might be a park effect at work that ERA+ isn't accounting for, but his HR splits are almost identical (15 in 118.2 IP at home, 13 in 113 IP on the road).

I would cast a third place vote for Harang. I think he'll get some this year, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he got shut out again. These were the clear top 7 candidates by my stat-y evaluation, but others could pop up on the ballots. A few votes are usually collected by the top reliever (Saito?) or by a local champion (Hamels, Lilly?)

Poll

After Peavy and Webb, who's your choice?

Harang

18 votes

Penny

6 votes

Oswalt

0 votes

Smoltz

0 votes

Hudson

1 votes

boobs

9 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed