Last summer, I participated in John's annual community mock draft, as the Cleveland Indians.  I had the #5 pick, and I made it clear from the start that I was going by my own personal draft board.  So, when I selected Nick Castellanos with that pick, it was pretty clear that it was completely unrealistic, but it gave me a pretty well-deserved reputation as a Castellanos fanboy here.  I believed he had the best non-Harper bat in the draft class, and that it really wasn't close.  I still believe that, but his tendencies this season have made that opinion a bit more clouded, and I think it's definitely necessary to double check my thoughts on him with a short study.

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Today's Probables:

AAA: Mike Minor, Zach McAllister, Rudy Owens, Felix Doubront, Tom Milone, Adam Ottavino, Danny Duffy

AA: Jacob Turner, Alex Wilson, Nathan Eovaldi, Erasmo Ramirez, Trevor Reckling

A+: Matt Harvey, Alexander Colome, Jarred Cosart, Chad Bettis, Zack Wheeler, Chris Balcom-Miller, Robert Ross, Kyle Heckathorn

A: Garrett Gould, Jordan Swagerty, Patrick Schuster, Carlos Perez, Zachary Neal, Ryan Berry

Sort of a slow day.  Turner's already pitching, and the game that Taillon started last night concludes later today.  Other notable probables will be added, along with some notable lines after the jump.

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Today's Probables:

AA: Felix Doubront, Rudy Owens, Tom Milone, Amaury Rivas, Mike Montgomery, Lucas French

AA: Stolmy Pimentel, Brad Peacock, Jarrod Parker, Shane Dyer, Miguel de los Santos

A+: Zack Wheeler, Chad Bettis, Robert Ross, Jake Odorizzi, Chris Balcom-Miller, Kyle Heckathorn, Jarred Cosart, Matt Harvey, Jacob Thompson, Jesse Biddle, Rob Rasmussen

A: Garret Gould, Drew Hutchison, Matthew Branham, Carlos Perez, Ryan Berry, Colton Cain, Seth Blair

Definitely a slow day for minor league pitching.  Lots of mid-range names here.  I'll keep an eye on the TBDs and add any notable names as they come.  Notable lines are after the jump.

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Strikeouts in Prospecting
by RedSoxFaithful

I started thinking about doing a study on prospect strikeout rates earlier this week, when reading a comment thread between slamcactus and casejud about Nick Franklin that culminated in this comment.  The argument was over whether or not strikeouts in the minors were a good thing for hitters, something that would go completely against conventional prospecting wisdom if it were true.  There aren't a ton of studies out there (to my knowledge, at least) that explore minor league plate discipline as a predictor of major league success, and the more I looked into it, the more interested I became.  I decided to perform a big-picture study on the subject, with an eye on certain developmental questions.

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Today's Probables:

AAA: Jenrry Mejia, Yunesky Maya, Alex Cobb, Neil Ramirez, Brad Mills

AA: Jeff Locke, Deolis Guerra, Alex Wilson, Manny Banuelos, Rafael Dolis, Christian Friedrich, Casey Kelly, Martin Perez, Trevor Reckling, John Lamb, Matthew Moore, Wynn Pelzer

A+: Tyler Matzek, Drew Pomeranz, Tim Melville, Shelby Miller, Trevor May, Chad Jenkins, Zack Greinke (*)

A: Keyvius Sampson, Daniel Tillman, Anthony Ranaudo, Tanner Bushue, Kyle Blair

Still a lot of TBDs out there.  I'll update this as they're added, along with some notable performances after the jump.

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Today's Probables:

AAA: Mike Minor, Andrew Oliver, Jenrry Mejia, Andrew Brackman, Mark Rogers, Jordan Lyles, Blake Beavan

AA: Bryan Morris, Jacob Turner, Zach Stewart, Nick Barnese, Randall Delgado, Juan Nicasio, Christopher Dwyer, Wilfredo Boscan, Rubby De La Rosa, Garrett Richards

A+: Michael Main, Jeurys Familia, Tyler Skaggs, Alexander Colome, Chad James, Deck McGuire

A: David Holmberg, Daniel Corcino, Manuel Soliman, Roman Mendez, Zack von Rosenberg, Zach Lee, Enny Romero

Looks like a pretty solid day at the upper levels.  Not so much for the lower ones.  Still a few TBD's, though.

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I've seen the dirge of Top 25/33/50 lists the last few days and been a bit disappointed, mainly because I'd been working on mine for about a week now (I've historically released my Top 100 in early August, which I know is weird, but hey, it works for me!), and hate that it would seem like a response to those other lists if I were to post it this instant.  The rest of my disappointment with the lists?  Well, that comes from a bizarre sudden underrating of Mariners' 2B prospect Dustin Ackley.

I understood a couple months ago when, in my midseason list, I was criticized by some for ranking Ackley first overall.  Clearly, his season numbers had suffered a bit from a terrible April, and I was in the minority that thought his May/June numbers were more representative of the overall player.  And, hell, I understood that it's hard to love-- to really go crazy over-- a player with no .400s in his vital line.

My reasoning then was simple: That Ackley was starting to turn it around, and he deserved some slack for being the clear cut #2 (who, in more than a few peoples' opinions, would have been a legitimate #1 draft choice in a non-Strasburg, non-Harper draft) who was said to be the most polished bat to come out of the draft since John Olerud skipped the minor leagues altogether.  The fact that Ackley was in the process of adjusting to second base only made me crazier about him.  Not only did the position change increase his offensive value, but I could now make the excuse that his offensive struggles came as a result of learning an entirely new position, which made his post-April numbers that much more impressive.

But still, I understood the hesitation to follow suit; he looked atrocious defensively at second, and excuses or not, his power numbers didn't exactly make for a sexy #1 prospect.

What's changed with Ackley since June, though?  Well, he continued to just completely crush AA, earning a promotion to AAA, where in 83 at-bats he's hit .299/.388/.483.  His defense is still lagging behind, though it's improved some.  The offensive numbers are from too small a sample size to really mean anything, but they look excellent so far, though not the most elite, worldbeating numbers we've ever seen.

All this being said: I still have Dustin Ackley ranked #1 on that aforementioned top prospect list.

This is mainly because, again, he comes with an extremely polished pedigree (as in, I think he could hit at least .280/.380/.420 in the majors right now), and the Mariners are going to give him every opportunity to put up that line from an elite position at second base.  In fact, the worst case scenario there is that he moves to center field, a still-valuable position where he's drawn excellent reviews for his defense. 

Hell, if you want stats, Ackley can give you some dominant ones, too, provided you're comfortable overlooking his April.  Without that month, Ackley's hitting .302/.413/.452, with 54 BB and 41 Ks, in 301 AB.  That's really about elite as you can get, from a polish perspective.  He's also adjusted to AAA well, as documented earlier.  And I haven't yet mentioned his speed, which has been graded anywhere from plus to plus-plus, and allows him a projection of 30-40 steals in his peak.  (I think a lot of his current slugging percentage is based in his speed, too, as he has plenty of 3Bs (7), and most likely a few speed-based doubles.)

The one complaint with Ackley that does seem valid is his ceiling, or lack thereof.  There are some complaints that he'll never really be a superstar, or a 30/30 type, which I guess is some requirement for #1 prospects these days.  You'd be right in saying that his ceiling isn't that, but he should still be an extremely valuable player for a very long time.  I personally see him peaking at something like .320/.420/.480, which would make him an incredibly good ballplayer.  Yeah, maybe he'll peak at 20 home runs, too, but that's not necessarily a negative...  At least when you consider that Ackley has one of the highest floors I think I've ever seen in a positional prospect.

Anyway, I've been rambling for a long time, but I wanted to talk a bit about why I'm going to have Ackley #1 when I do finish cleaning up my list.  I thought that this conversation was big enough (and it is; I've gone on for 8 paragraphs or so on my own) to move out of my commentary in that upcoming thread, and into its own.  What do you guys think about Ackley?  Am I crazy to be considering him a #1?  If so, who would you give an edge to (I'm guessing guys like Trout, Teheran, Montero?), and why?

The most hyped prospects (Strasburg and Harper excluded) in each of the last two seasons are rather clearly Texas LHP Martin Perez and Atlanta RHP Julio Teheran, respectively.  While they may not have ever been called the #1 prospect in the game, they both have seen exponential growth in attention, all the while being aggressively promoted multiple levels before age-20.  I thought it'd be a good idea to look at each of them now that Teheran's been promoted to AA, highlighting their similarities and differences, and exploring which one should be considered the better prospect at this point.

Comparing "Stuff"

Perez's main asset when he was signed by the Rangers as a 16-year old in 2007 was his fastball, and since then, his raw stuff has developed extremely well.  His fastball is still excellent, sitting low-to-mid 90s and hitting 96 (remember, he's a 19-year old lefty, which makes that velocity grade out as plus).  Meanwhile, as early as last April, reports were coming out that cited his curveball as plus as well, and news came in June that his changeup was grading out similarly.  Indeed, we've spent the last year talking about Perez's "three plus pitches", and that much at least hasn't changed.  His curve is considered (easily) the best in the Rangers' system, and one of the best pitches in all of the minors.  His changeup is slightly more inconsistent, and sometimes only flashes plus, but he hasn't been throwing it for very long, and it should grade a straight-plus long-term.

Teheran's fastball gets the edge over Perez's, at least right now.  He sits 94-96, and can hit the high 90s.  Scouts have argued over whether his changeup or curveball is the better pitch, but both flash plus, and have been more consistently above average this season.  His curve sits mid 70s, while his changeup generally is around 79-81.  Teheran's been able to rely on his fastball much of this season, though it should be stressed that that's not a criticism of his secondary stuff; just a demonstration of exactly how good his fastball is.

Both pitchers seem to have good command of all of their pitches, though it should be noted that Teheran gets the edge there.  He also gets an edge in control, as that's been Perez's main problem since starting pro ball.  Neither pitcher exactly has plus control at this point, though.

Comparing Physical Components

Listed at 6-0, 175, Perez has drawn physical comparisons to both Ron Guidry and Johan Santana for being somewhat undersized.  He will clearly never be an imposing 6-7 type of pitcher, but he won't need to be with his repertoire, anyway.  There aren't many questions about his durability, and his only injury was a broken fingernail that was rumored to be an excuse for the Rangers to get some extra mechanical work with him on the side.

Teheran, on the other hand, has been lauded for plus athleticism, and is listed 6-2, 160.  However, he has already had some injury issues, hitting the disabled list last year for shoulder tendinitis.  There are some durability concerns with Teheran, mainly because of a noisy delivery.  It should also be noted that some people questioned his stamina coming into the season, though he's averaged just under 6 IP/GS so far this year.

Comparing Promotions and ARL

Since being signed as a 16-year old in 2007, Perez has been moved aggressively be the Rangers.  They sent him to the Northwest League in 2008, which is usually populated by college draftees.  Perez more than answered the call, and Baseball America ranked him #2 in the league that season, just behind a guy who was considered the best high school bat in the draft at the time in Josh Vitters.  Texas was obviously impressed by how he handled the assignment, and proceeded to send him to full-season A ball in the South Atlantic League as an 18-year old in 2009.  Again, he responded extremely well, and Baseball America ended up naming him the top prospect there last year.  His performance there was so impressive that the team ended up promoting him to AA Frisco in August, skipping high-A altogether.  I commented back then that "the last time I saw a prospect promoted this aggressively and confidently, it was Felix Hernandez".  Perez struggled with Frisco that August, but he was also 4-5 years younger than a vast majority of the league.  He returned there this year, and has had considerably more success, though inconsistency makes his numbers look somewhat flawed.

Teheran has been treated just as aggressively by the Braves, who signed him back in 2007 for $850,000.  While this was only $50,000 more than Perez's signing bonus, Teheran was largely hyped at the time as the best pitching prospect available in that year's international class.  Therefore, he didn't have the same sudden explosion of hype that Perez did, as it was all there from the start.  Indeed, long before he had any meaningful numbers in a league, he was routinely called one of the Braves' best prospects.  He would have 6 stars in the short-season Appalachian League for Atlanta in 2008, putting up unappealing numbers as the youngest pitcher in the league at the time (just 17-years old).  The reason for his shortened season was a bout with shoulder tendinitis he encountered after two starts.  He would end up repeating the league in 2009, dominating and earning a promotion to full-season Rome in July.  He ranked as the best prospect in the Appalachian League last year, though some questioned the promotion to low-A as a hint that the Braves were planning on rushing him.  They maintained a cautious approach, though, sending Teheran back to Rome to open this season, and he's earned not one, but two promotions, pitching exceptionally well both at Rome and high-A Myrtle Beach.  Atlanta promoted him to AA Mississippi last week, and he's made two starts there already.

Really, the treatment of Teheran this season reminded me most of... the Rangers' treatment of Perez last season.  Teheran's a year older right now than Perez was then, but both pitchers received promotions to AA on the strengths of A-ball numbers, and are/were extremely young for the call-up.  It shouldn't hinder them long-term, and it shouldn't be considered as "rushing" them, as they both appeared ready to handle it, and had learned all they could from A-ball.  However, Perez struggled initially, and it will be interesting to see if Teheran will have the same sort of problems adjusting to AA.

Comparing Stats

These were obviously just taken from First Inning, but they include both pitchers' career numbers to date, and they save you a trip to find out.  Clearly, both pitchers have had dominant stretches, and can rack up strikeouts.  As I said earlier, Perez has some control issues, and both prospect command their pitches well.  One interesting trend I wanted to note is Teheran's increasingly troublesome fly-ball tendencies.  This could be a problem down the line for him, though he's obviously pitching well enough right now where this is only an extreme nitpick.

Summary

Comparing two pitchers who have had strikingly similar career paths and scouting reports (even if they pitch with opposite arms), I've taken notice that it's hard to give an edge here.  On the one hand, Teheran's numbers are markedly more impressive, but on the other, Perez's scouting reports have become increasingly more impressive than Teheran's.  The fact that Perez has already spent a year of development time at AA, while Teheran is just getting there now, makes me inclined to still give the edge to Perez, though it's clearly close, and we're splitting hairs here as it is.  Which pitcher would you take between the two at this point, and why?  I attached a poll to this, but I'm hoping it generates some discussion, too.

Pitching Probables for 6/27/10:

Michael Bowden
Anthony Swarzak
Zach McAllister
Jay Jackson
Alex Wilson
Jenrry Mejia
Blake Beavan
Dellin Betances
Matthew Moore
Fabio Martinez Mesa
Shelby Miller
Robbie Erlin
Kendal Volz
Asher Wojciechowski

Decently stacked day, I guess.  Excited to see how Mejia/Betances/Fabio/Wojci do.

Also, personal favorite in Hunter Cervenka is on the mound for Lowell today.  He's a 20-year old in SS ball, hyped as a deep sleeper back when the Sox drafted him two years ago.  Yeah, not really a prospect, but I wanted to plug him quick.  Woo!

I should start this off by saying that I realize how hypocritical this is.  I've publicly said, many times, that making top prospect lists two months into the season is fool's work.  It's stupid and pointless and usually ends up with drastically aggressive rankings based on far too small sample sizes.

That being said, I've made my own Top 50 list.  I'm not even going to try to deny that I was driven to do this after seeing Dewey's list, and I understand that comparisons between our lists are inevitable.  But, I saw his and felt like trying to put one together, mainly because I can't remember a bigger string of significant prospect graduations than the one we've seen in the last few weeks.  We're going to be seeing some drastically different prospect lists next winter, and frankly, I'm excited.  I tried my best to ward off urges to overrate breakouts and underrate slumps, but it probably still happened.  Here were my rules when going through and forming the list:

1.) Respect old opinions.  Just because Player X is hitting .300/.400/.500 does not negate the criticisms of him that were made in the offseason or earlier.  Unless there is specific, clear-cut evidence that the circumstances of a player's skills have changed, I only treated 2010 statistics as an addendum to my existing opinions, not a replacement of them.

2.) Utilize positional rankings.  I started off my list by ranking each position (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/P), and then combining the positional lists by taking one at a time from each.  What resulted was a list that might not be totally accurate on a spot-by-spot basis (if only because it's so difficult to compare across positions), but one that you could definitely breakdown further if you were interested in seeing how I compared players.

3.) Value high floors.  A lot of people here know my preferences; I value floors very highly, and I will occasionally respect floors more than ceilings.  This led to me ranking guys like Brad Lincoln and Tim Alderson highly on past lists, which I was criticized for.  I'm not quite that extreme with my floor preferences anymore, but you'll still likely note a couple oddities here and there.  Just understand where I'm coming from.

Anyway, the full list is below after the jump.  Usually when I do these, I like to post commentary with each player (as I did with my Top 100 list last year), but this time, I'm going to break it down and analyze key parts.  I tried this out two years ago on my 2008-09 Top 101, and I think it worked nicely.

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Coming up, Rick Porcello was obviously one of the most anticipated and praised pitching prospects in recent memory.  Drafted out of high school in 2007 by the Tigers, he figured to be the best prep arm out of that class (despite falling down to 24th overall because of bonus demands).  Baseball America ranked him 4th in that 2007 draft...  Here's the draft scouting report they had on him back then (this is paid content, but it's also three years old and a single scouting report... as an aside, you should subscribe to BA for their draft stuff alone, they do two hundred of these every year):

The top pitcher in the long awaited, much anticipated high school Class of 2007, Porcello was tabbed as a can't-miss prospect by the time he was a 15-year-old on the showcase circuit. His maternal grandfather, Sam Dente, played shortstop in the majors, appearing in the 1954 World Series with the Indians. Porcello has shown steady improvement during his prep career, and was pitching at his best heading down the stretch, tossing a seven-inning perfect game for the nation's No. 1 high school team in May. He's long, lean, athletic and projectable with a clean delivery. His fastball sits at 93-95, touching 98. He holds his velocity deep into outings. He throws a tight curveball at 74-76 and a harder, sharp-breaking slider at 80-82. He shows feel for his changeup. He can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, and mixes his pitches effectively. He tends to finish his delivery across his body, and if he improved his extension, his stuff could have better life, which would make him profile as a true top-of-the-rotation pitcher. He still is likely to be the first high school pitcher selected.

As an pro in 2008, his fastball and changeup were hyped, and the Tigers were rumored to be restricting Porcello's slider use so that he could focus on his FB/CH/CB.  With the restrictions, his peripherals were only okay as a 19-year old in the high-A Florida State League.  While he had a 2.66 ERA in 24 starts, he also only had a 72/33 K/BB over 125 innings.  This is where I want to branch off my post for a moment, because things got interesting in the following offseason.

A lot of people started putting Porcello into their top 20s, top 15s, and even top 10s that winter.  I'm included in that bunch, as I placed him at #14, and was actually ridiculed for it being too conservative.  I became somewhat vocal in my criticisms about Porcello around that point, and my criticisms were amplified when the Tigers announced that he would join their MLB starting rotation in April 2009. 

Porcello's supporters claimed that his lack of strikeouts were due to his inability to use his slider, and that the pitch (which was now becoming a sort of unseen legend) would lead to dominant strikeout numbers.  His detractors cited Madison Bumgarner (this was before he started throwing 75 MPH heaters, obviously ;-)) as evidence that, even if Porcello only had his plus fastball, he should have been racking up strikeouts in A-ball.  In a FanPost about Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, I brought Porcello into the discussion:

The guy that I’m really concerned with is Porcello. Yeah, we’ve heard all the complaints about him before, and I’ve said and repeated most of them myself. But now, if he starts in the majors, all of those concerns and complaints are amplified tenfold. I used Jeremy Sowers as a worst-case stat comp for him earlier this offseason, and I think the likelihood of that comp becoming a reality (at least for this season) now increases significantly. His 6+ K/9 at high-A is NOT going to translate well to the majors. Hopefully that secret slider can get him some strikeouts, or this could get ugly.

What followed was me eating my words, as Porcello admittedly looked very good in 2009, and drew praise from a lot of different people.  His strikeouts weren't there, but he was a 20 year old rookie, so that's sort of nitpicking.  He did what he does pretty well, in getting groundballs and displaying plus control.  The slider sort of receded to the background, as did all the arguments about his plus "stuff".

This year, things have taken a step backwards, obviously, and Porcello has looked about as bad as possible.  The curious thing here is that his FIP has actually improved slightly over last year (it wasn't stellar to begin with).  I think what we could be seeing is that low K/BB + low K/9 combo start to kill him a bit.  He's still getting groundballs, and he's still controlling the ball really well, but he's gotten hit hard.

Now, let's take a look at that slider.  After shelving it to focus on his curve, Porcello threw that curve about 8% of the time according to FanGraphs.  This year, he seems to have scrapped it completely, going to it only 0.1% of the time, and instead siding with his slider on 14.4% of his pitches, up from just 5% in 2009.  His changeup has been used without any drastic changes, at about 8-9%.  The interesting thing here is that Porcello's fastball, which was 14 runs in 2009, is now worth -3.  And, of course, that slider has become less valuable, too, and it's now his worst pitch according to FanGraphs.

It seems improbable that a pitcher's stuff could just disappear, but almost immediately after becoming a pro, that's what seemed to happen to Porcello.  My question, and I've admittedly taken a long time to get here, is this: How concerned should we be with Porcello, and how can we apply that to prospecting?  Obviously, Porcello is still only 21 years old, and while his stats scream Sowers v2.0, he has (or had?) oodles and oodles more stuff than Sowers could ever dream of.  There's still plenty of time for Porcello to turn it around, but can we reasonably expect him to suddenly become a dominant strikeout pitcher?  Did Detroit ruin his front-of-the-rotation ceiling by rushing him to the majors?

Now, just lastly, I realize that this is all about a major leaguer and not a prospect, but it's still very much relevant, I think.  People here (and in the MLB) are so quick to make excuses for prospects, or brush over flaws.  While Porcello was obviously an elite prospect in 2008-09, we overlooked some troubling numbers, and the Tigers didn't do him any favors by allowing him to skip three levels.  We have far too much faith in prospects sometimes, and clearly, especially in this case, a little more seasoning could have really helped.  I don't think the lack of Detroit's logic here can be overstated; when you have an elite, big-name prospect, especially one coming off a developmental year, there's absolutely no reason to expect this much out of him.  Going forward, I think it provides a cautionary tale to both teams and fans (maybe one that the Marlins should read before entrusting Mike Stanton a big league job).  Hopefully, Porcello's story can recover before he regresses even further.

Alright, guys and gals.  I'm the scouting director for the Indians this year.  I did the draft for the Angels last year, and it came out pretty nicely (despite using a first rounder on Paxton).  You can see how the draft went for me here.  Anyway, just about everything about Cleveland's draft this year should be different than LA's last year.  As opposed to the latter team's 5 picks last year, these Indians have just three, one in each round, and no supplemental picks.  Also, as opposed to a back-end pick, we're sitting pretty at pick #5 in all three rounds.  Lastly, the organization itself is in a transitional period.  I'm not sure if that should affect our draft strategy or not, but it does give us different things to think about in both the long-term and short-term. 

So, I'll start exploring the pick after the jump.  Caution... wall of text ahead.

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Hello, hello.  This is my second time doing a Top 100 list, with the first coming just about 9 months ago.  As I said multiple times in that post, I do these primarily for my own personal use (I'm in a dynasty league just like all of you), but I also like to get criticisms and suggestions from the community.  So, I'm posting my list here, with rationales, and letting you pick it apart.  Don't feel obligated to be gentle; I've been through this before, and it won't help either of us to go easy on me.

This edition of the list is going to be broken down into quarters.  This is not to say that there is a huge dip in performance between #25 and #26, #50 and #51, or #75 and #76...  It's just to make the list easier to digest.  In fact, as many people have said many times, the actual difference between spots on these lists is minimal.  So keep that in mind!

Couple other things.  First off, if I mention what a guy profiles as, or what a guy compares to, I'm only talking about statistical comparisons.  I have not check body types, handedness, pitch arsenals, swings, deliveries, etc., unless otherwise noted.  Also, I have purposely not included any 2009 Draftees, regardless of whether or not they've signed.  I realize that this limits the usefulness of the list, but it makes this a whole lot easier, and the lack of pro data makes me weary of draftees, anyway.  All I would be going off of is a mashup of professional analysts' opinions.  (That being said... yes, Strasburg would be #1 ;-) )

Now, before I get to the rankings, I'd just like to explain how I came to this list.  First off, I got a pool of names that were considered.  These were from past prospect lists, midseason lists this year, and current minor league leaderboards.  Next, I arranged them by position (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/P).  I ranked them within their positions, and then I combined all the non-pitcher positions into a hitters' list.  I accomplished this by taking one player at a time from the six players at the top of the positional lists at any given time.  Finally, I combined the hitters and pitchers in a similar fashion, asking myself which of the top players on a list I preferred systematically.  After I arrived at a Top 100 list, I just tinkered with it every couple days if I saw something quirky.  I'm finding this sort of confusing to explain, so I hope it's alright to understand- if you have any questions, ask, and I'll be happy to elaborate.

Anyway, without further ado, let's get to the list, after the jump.

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After talking last time about Yankees pitcher D.J. Mitchell, I've decided to continue this series with a profile on Angels righty Tommy Mendoza.

Mendoza's Background

The Angels drafted Mendoza in the 4th round in 2005, and Baseball America rated him as the #10 prospect in the system prior to both 2006 and 2007.  Sickels, meanwhile, rated him 7th and 9th in the system, with grades B and C+, respectively.  This was all a response to the great success he had since being drafted, with an 8.67 K/9 and a 1.74 BB/9 over the two seasons.  However, Mendoza took major steps back in 2007, as he was hit far more often, and saw a steep decline in his strikeouts.  He dropped almost completely off the radar, not making John's 2008 Angels' list.  And, last season, there were even more setbacks for the pitcher, with a Noah Lowry-esque 50/39 K/BB in 110 innings.  Still, though, Mendoza had just completed a season at one of the toughest parks in baseball (high-A Rancho Cucamonga), and was still just 21 going into 2009.

Typecasting Mendoza

Before we talk about Mendoza's 2009 line, let's look at the type of pitcher that he is.  He primarily throws three pitches: an 89-94 MPH fastball, an average- if inconsistent- curveball, and a changeup.  He has multiple different looks to his fastball- Baseball America said in multiple reports that Mendoza knows when to add and remove velocity from it, and could also cut it or throw a two-seamer when needed.  Lastly, Mendoza tends to be a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher, but has for the most part done a good job of keeping the ball in the park.  I usually tend to take interest in strike-throwing ground ball pitchers, but Mendoza may be even more interesting as a fly ball pitcher with very good control.

I've thought for a good amount of time about a comparison for Mendoza, and I think he profiles as a righty version of Jarrod Washburn.  Washburn has similar fastball velocity, a similar secondary arsenal (slider/change), and has a diverse arsenal of fastballs, like Mendoza.  He's also a flyball pitcher that struggles to get K's (but has good control), and is even the same height/weight as our young Angels prospect.  I think Washburn is an excellent best-case scenario here, and at the age of 21, Mendoza has plenty of time to reach that potential if LA decides that he needs to repeat AA or AAA.

The Mendoza Line in 2009

If I had to pick one prospect that has really, truly impressed and surprised me this season, it would be Mendoza.  His 2009 has been exceptional...  The Angels aggressively started him at AA (even though he had struggled somewhat at high-A), and he has more than answered the call.  Although his K/9 is still unspectacular (6.0), Mendoza has further refined his control, and his H/9 has dropped to its lowest level since 2006.  With good surface stats (3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), it's hard to explain why he's not getting attention this season, even if his ceiling is only that of a back-end starter.

What to Expect Going Forward

Mendoza is not a shiny prospect.  He's been around forever, but is still just 21 years old.  He's gotten attention before, and he's gone way downhill after receiving it.  However, he looks like as good a bet as any right now, and has been consistently good at AA through the season.  I can't see the Angels pushing him to AAA this season, but he should start there next year.  If he continues to put up these types of numbers, the Angels may need him sometime in 2010.  It doesn't seem like LA will have a tough rotation to crack, and an injury or two could force their hand with Mendoza.

Matt Wieters has been an impressive player.  He was pretty much the uncontested top prospect before the season (and deservedly so).  Much of that had to do with his asskicking at AA (.365/.460/.625, 38/29 BB/K).  He was pretty good, in other words, and the consensus was that he was going to be a very very good major league player for a very very long time.

Now, this is not a panic post (nor should it be, as Wieters is doing fine in the majors right now), but I'd like to look into his stats at the advanced levels a little more.  First, his jump up to AAA this year worries me a bit.  He saw opposite (and negative) changes in both BB% and K%, as both moved to career extremes.  It wasn't really a problem, though, since his overall line at AAA was still .305/.387/.504, and the discipline could be written off as SSS.  It should be noted that his other peripheral stats (such as LD%) improved at AAA, so again... This is not a panic post.

Here's the thing, though.  The discipline stats took another big hit after being promoted to the majors.  He's striking out nearly once a game, at a career-high 22.8% clip.  He's stopped taking walks, too, with a career-low 7.3% rate.  And, this time, his line seems to be affected, currently at .267/.321/.416.  Wieters' luck stats seem to be normal, with a BABIP of exactly .320 and good GB/FB/LD splits.

My question is this: Since Wieters has been bothered by high strikeout totals at all levels except for AA, is it possible that the lack of strikeouts at AA was a fluke, and what we're seeing now is a result of a lack of plate discipline?  I should again emphasize that I am not worried about Wieters long term; I still think he will be an effective major league catcher.  But is the declining plate discipline something we should keep an eye on, and if so, how will it affect his long-term development?

I did a couple of these a while back, and they were fun, so I figured I'd do it again.  The point of these pieces is to expose those prospects that do not get much mainstream exposure, but deserve it.  Today we're going to talk about Yankees pitcher D.J. Mitchell, currently with high-A Tampa.

Mitchell was largely unranked before this season, his first as a professional.  However, drafted in the 10th round by the Yankees, and signed for well above slot at $450,000, Mitchell came with a good amount of fanfare last June.  He is actually fairly new to pitching, having been recruited by Clemson as a position player.  In 31 appearances for the Tigers (21 starts), Mitchell was 11-5 with a 3.40 ERA and 155/56 K/BB in 151 innings.  Baseball America had the following to say about him when they ranked him #155 on their 2008 Draft Top 200 (link is subscriber-only):

Recruited as an outfielder, Mitchell didn't pitch at all his freshman year at Clemson. A career .241 hitter in college, he split time between hitting and pitching last season and found more success on the mound, tallying a 5-0, 3.27 record in 15 appearances. Following his sophomore season, he led the Cape Cod League with 58 strikeouts, including one 15-strikeout performance, and had a 1.47 ERA in eight starts. He has been Clemson's Friday night starter this spring, providing stability on a young staff. Athletic on the mound, Mitchell has long, wiry arms and legs. His fastball comes in between 89-91 mph, but with above-average movement. He creates natural sink and tail from his loose three-quarters arm slot. He complements his fastball with a sweeping slider and changeup. Mitchell is 6-feet, 170 pounds and has room to add more weight. Due to his size, durability is a question mark, but his live body and limited pitching experience intrigue scouts. He'll likely end up in the bullpen at the professional level.

If this scouting report sounds familiar, it's because it's a lot like the one BA wrote up for Jess Todd prior to the 2007 draft.  Mitchell draws a lot of comparisons to him.  Both were college pitchers with predominantly a fastball-slider combo (though Todd's fastball is slightly faster), and both have been knocked for their size.  And, there's always the fact that both pitchers had awesome debuts.

Before I continue talking about Mitchell's 2009, and making some more comparisons, I'd first like to mention that Mitchell did get some love from BA before the season.  They ranked him 24th in the Yankees system, saying that he's incredibly athletic, and that he "could struggle initially in pro ball, but his potential is obvious".  BA also said that he could have three solid-to-plus pitches when all is said and done, and that his changeup (potentially a plus) is the key to remaining a starter.  John and other sources (such as Deric McKaney) left Mitchell out of Yankee top prospect lists, though he was an honorable mention for John.

Anyway, while Todd reached AAA in his first full professional season, the Yankees are taking a (slightly) more patient role with Mitchell.  Starting the season at single-A Charleston, Mitchell got off to a crazy-good start, racking up a 29.0% K/PA, 4.1% BB/PA, and a 2.07 FIP.  It didn't hurt that he was also prompting grounders at a cool 60% rate.  The Yankees promoted him aggressively to high-A Tampa after his 6th start with Charleston.  While his ERA has taken a hit in the promotion, his peripherals are sparkling.  Mitchell's still maintaining a 24.8% K/PA to go along with a 9.7% BB/PA, and he's actually increased his groundball ratio, to 63%.  Based just on his pure numbers, he's really bringing fellow Yankees prospect Zach McAllister to mind for me, as a GB-minded pitcher with very good strikeout rates and good control.  Also like McAllister, I think Mitchell is criminally underrated.

So, with all this in mind, what do we think about Mitchell?  Does his size have him destined for the Yankees bullpen?  Is it all dependent on his changeup?  Does he deserve more attention, and if so, why isn't he receiving it?  To me, he's got to be a top-5 prospect for the Yankees right now, even counting new draftees Slade Heathcott and J.R. Murphy.  There's no way Brackman's ahead of him at this point, and he's definitely in the conversation with Betances and Romine, IMO.

Once upon a time, the Chicago Cubs drafted a powerful first baseman, with a 2nd round draft pick, who promptly went to single-A Lansing and had a crazy-good season.  The first baseman was lauded from every direction for his efforts, and was named the best prospect in Chicago's system, as well as the 21st best prospect in baseball, by one of the most reputable sources around.

It was what happened next, though, that was the most surprising twist of them all: Brian Dopirak fell off a figurative cliff.  He posted an OPS of .670 at high-A in 2005, and fell victim to injuries in 2006 and 2007.  By the time Dopirak would post another healthy season, it would be 2008, in his second organization, at the age of 24, and yet only in high-A.

Of course, most of you probably already knew all of this, so where am I going with it?  Well, Dopirak is now 25, and has finally made the all-important jump to AA (which he is mastering quickly).  With a .946 OPS, and 16 home runs, he's definitely begging for a promotion to AAA.  My question is this: Does it matter?  At what point does age relative to league actually mean something? 

Obviously, his power is slightly less impressive, because he's 25, but it's pretty clear that Dopirak does have real power, regardless of the age discrepancy.  He's also walking a decent amount, in the 9-10% range (despite still striking out too much).  Plus, it's not like this is him repeating the league- he only had about 300 scattered at-bats at AA before this season.  I really think, if they challenged him, the Blue Jays could find themselves pleasantly surprised here.  It's not like they really have much in the way at 1B, anyway (both at the MLB level and in the minors, aside from David Cooper).

What do you think?  Can Dopirak still power himself into a major league lineup, or are we merely witnessing a one-time prospect's last stand?

With one of the busier drafts today (7 picks), I think I did very well with the Angels.  I'm very pleased by how the overall picture turned out.  Let's break down each pick here.

Pick #24: James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky

I've been looking into Paxton all along.  Some are higher on him than others, as Keith Law had him at #3 on his old top 100 (and at #8 on his new one), while BA has him at #37.  I don't put much stock into Paxton's ERA (5.86).  He has excellent command (115/20 K/BB).  Law rated his fastball (55/60) and curveball (60/60) very highly, and I trust that.  The signability concerns are definitely deserved, as Paxton is a Boras client, but I don't think he's got that much leverage because of his lack of production.

Pick #25: Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa (Calif.) HS

I really believe in Davidson's bat, and the Angels could use a homegrown positional player that will actually hit.  Once again, Law was higher on Davidson than BA.  Law really likes Davidson's hit (45/60), power (40/55), and plate discipline (40/55) tools, and called him "about as high-probability a prep bat as you'll find".  It's okay if he has to move off of third base, too- the Angels could play him at first just as easily.  He was rated #15 overall by Law, and #42 by BA.

Pick #40: Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M

Of all my picks, this is the one I was least pleased with.  I didn't realize I was on the clock, and rushed to select Wilson.  That being said, I do believe in him...  He has had great control at for the Aggies (105/18 K/BB), and the fact that he did that in his first season back from TJS is awesome.  I'm very interested to see what he does as he further recovers.  He needs to add a third pitch to prevent ending up as a reliever, but I guess the Angels could use him either way.

Pick #42: Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin (S.C.) HS

Younginer really fit for me here.  While he was used only as a closer in high school, I believe that his ceiling is that of a #1 starter.  Because I had taken Paxton, Davidson, and Wilson with my first three picks, I was looking for a relatively more signable pitcher here.  While Younginer is still a prep pitcher, the fact that he was only used as a closer means that he has limited leverage.  The ceiling here is extremely high, as long as he can keep his velocity in at least the mid-90s, and make good on the reports of a developing changeup.

Pick #48: Josh Phegley, C, Indiana

I really love this pick.  Phegley could be this draft's Jaff Decker- a hitter with extremely advanced plate discipline, and good power to boot.  BA says he only really profiles as a catcher, so he'll have to improve (they also call him a "below-average receiver") there.  But, I'm a big fan of his bat, even if he has to move out from behind the plate.

Pick #80: Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M

This pick made a lot of sense given the rest of my draft.  I drafted his teammate (Wilson) in the 1-S round, and I really like Raley as a future mid-rotation starter.  While he lacks a good fastball (maxing out at 91 MPH), he brings excellent movement, great control, a plus curveball, and a strong changeup to the table.  All that adds up to someone with first-round talent...  But, with some slight signability concerns as a draft-eligible sophomore, I am absolutely fine that he lasted here.  I don't think we will need to break the bank to bring him in.

Pick #110: J.R. Murphy, C, Pendleton School, Bradenton, Fla.

I don't know how realistic this pick is, given the rest of my draft.  Murphy will likely be expensive, and I had already taken a catcher with Phegley.  That being said, he fits perfectly in the rest of my draft's M.O., with a strong, advanced bat.  I think his bat could play well, even at first base.  I also considered SS Chris Owings.  More realistic picks would have been SS Ryan Jackson of Miami U, and Matt den Dekker of Florida.

So, what do you think?  Like I said, I'm pretty pleased with these 7 picks.  I managed to really, really fortify our system's pitching depth, getting a couple top-of-the-rotation talents, and some nice complementary pitching in Wilson and Raley.  Plus, I managed to get a few offensive-minded positional players in Davidson, Phegley, and Murphy.  The only problem I think I had was keeping budget in mind, as most of my picks will be somewhat expensive.

First thing first: I need a deputy.  There's a decent chance I won't be available for the back-end of the draft, and I really would like to have someone to proxy for me.  If anybody is interested, do not hesitate to ask (via a comment here, a PM, an AIM at TheRedSoxJunkie, or an email at antiyankee@cox.net).  Thanks!

Second order of business: Today, I'd like to focus on our back-end picks.  We've fleshed out some good ideas about our first two picks, and I don't think it's all that productive to talk about them more until we get closer to the draft.  We have two picks that could be classified as "back-end".  They are #80 and #110.

Pick #80: Let's look at some potential targets here.  First off, I brought up Keith Law's Draft Top 100.  The #80 guy on that list is Joe Gardner, a RHP out of UC Santa Barbara.  He's someone I admittedly am not familiar with, so I have no idea if he'd be someone I'm interested in.  However, the #79 guy on that list, Scott Bittle, is someone I'm very familiar with.  Obviously, Bittle made some news last year by not signing with the Yankees.  I think we might be at a spot now, where this is our 5th pick in the draft already, and we can afford to take a high upside reliever like Bittle.  He's even gotten a few starts in this year...  Despite not really doing anything to hurt his stock, he's seemingly fallen out of the 2nd round, where he was drafted last year.  Might be a good and realistic target for us.

Pick #110: I don't really have an idea of a potential target here, but one guy I am interested in is prep pitcher Tanner Bashue.  He's very raw, with the potential for two plus pitches, but he doesn't throw real hard.  He could potentially add a few MPH to his fastball, but there's some injury risk here.  But, for a raw pitcher with a high ceiling, he's extremely signable.  He might be a good target if he falls to us, although there is a huge chance he goes in the 2nd or early 3rd rounds.

Anybody else have any other suggestions, targets, or ideas for these two picks?  Please refrain from commenting on the first four picks, as we will revisit those in the coming week in MOD #4.  And, again, don't forget about my deputy request.  Thanks for reading!

Hello again, today I'm going to further flesh out my expectations for those magical first two picks of ours, #24 and #25.

I am still looking for a prep pitcher to fall to the slot, but I think we're getting a better idea of possible names.  I know a lot of people are high on Tyler Skaggs, but I think there might be better pitchers available at this point.

My top three "These guys won't make it past us" picks are:

1. Chad James, LHP
2. Rex Brothers, LHP
3. James Paxton, LHP

I love James' potential for two plus pitches with his FB and curve, and I have confidence in his control, as well.  As far as potential 4-pitch starters go in this draft, the fact that none of James' pitches appear to be significantly weak is a huge asset.

Brothers is obviously a riskier pick, since he really only has one developed pitch after his fastball (his already plus slider).  The lack of another pitch scares me, as do the numerous people saying he could wind up as a reliever.  Still, with all of the Angels' picks, I can see them taking a gamble on a guy with a ceiling as high as Brothers'.

Paxton is interesting.  If he's still on the board here, it's obviously because of signability concerns.  He has Boras as an agent, and that's scaring a lot of teams off.  But he's a really advanced pitcher already, and has as much pure stuff as any non-Strasburg pitcher in the draft.

My top three "These guys should be available, and I don't hate them" picks are:

1. Jared Mitchell, OF
2. Wil Myers, C/3B
3. Rich Poythress, 1B

I think the Angels have made mistakes in recent years by signing so many high-cost, aging outfielders, and they're realizing that now.  With Mitchell, my new regime would take a step to correct that by taking a toolsy outfielder that has a higher ceiling than current toolsy outfield prospect Peter Bourjos.  Mitchell will probably fit right around this spot anyway...  His stock has fallen quite a bit, and I'd be happy to get him here.

Myers would be a perfect fit here.  I love him as a catcher, but if he can't stick there, we could use a 3B prospect all the same.  He's a little raw, but I have faith in his bat, and he has a cannon for an arm.

It might not make absolute perfect sense, but I think Poythress could be a nice fit on the Angels.  I like his bat more than Trumbo's, and he's already an advanced hitter.  I could see us taking Poythress, and looking at Trumbo as more of a DH down the road.

So, there you have it.  6 names for 2 spots.  Let's discuss what else could be available, what you think of my analysis of our system, and whether you agree or disagree that these players should be taken by the Angels.  Any and all opinions are welcome!

Los Angeles Angels' picks:

#24, #25, #40, #42, #48, #80, #110

Draft Strategies: #24/#25

Today, I'm going to focus on our first two picks.  While we do have 5 picks in the first 50, it makes sense that these first two will be the two players with the highest ceilings.  Unforunately, due to all of our picks, we won't have the budget to take big names with all five of the first five.  This is ok, because we could probably use a couple safer players, anyway.

Now, looking at the Angel system, I'm not sure what to think.  There is a real lack of high-upside arms (Walden/Reckling/Smith is about it for the system, and they all project to middle of the rotation guys), and part of me thinks that we should capitalize on that because of the real wealth of pitching in this year's draft.  There is a pretty good chance that at least one pitcher falls down to us at #24, and shouldn't be there.

That being said, most of our current positional prospects are majorly flawed.  Bourjos, Conger, Trumbo, Sweeney, Fuller... Don't get me wrong, they're good prospects, but I don't see any of them having relatively high ceilings, aside from maybe Conger.  Now, there is a real lack of current prospects at C, 2B, and SS (which is mainly because younger guys like Kendrick, Abreu, and Wood have graduated, but none of those guys are irreplaceably good in the long-run anyway).  This draft seems to be very deep for MIF, and the first catcher prospect off the board (Max Stassi, it seems) will likely be drafted right around 24.  This seems, to me, like another opportunity to capitalize on a draft surplus.

So, while I think it's a good idea to go with the best player available, I think we should really look for two things to happen.  First, for a major upside pitcher to fall.  Guys like Matt Purke, Zach Wheeler, Rex Brothers.  I'd rather not have a "safer" pitcher at this point, so I'm currently interested in our options as far as guys with front-of-the-rotation potential go.  Second, for Grant Green, Jiovanni Mier, Max Stassi, Wil Myers, or Tommy Joseph to slip to us.

Note that, for these first two picks, I'm not really concerned about signability.  The 2010 draft will likely be deeper than this one, and our 5 top-50 picks this year mean that if one were to get bumped to next year, it wouldn't really mean anything.

What do you guys think?  Should we have our eyes on anyone in particular?

With 45% of the vote, UNC's Dustin Ackley is the #2 pick in our community mock draft.  USC's Grant Green was the clear-cut runner-up, garnering 26% of the vote.  With the Padres on the board now, however, there's a pretty good chance that the #3 pick will be a pitcher.  Let's see what sort of reasoning we can come up with for them.

ON THE CLOCK: San Diego Padres (#1-3)

DRAFT RECAP- Round 1:

1-1 (Washington Nationals): Stephen Strasburg, RHP, SDSU

1-2 (Seattle Mariners): Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF, UNC

1-3 (San Diego Padres): ON THE CLOCK

1-4 (Pittsburgh Pirates):

1-5 (Baltimore Orioles):

1-6 (San Francisco Giants):

1-7 (Atlanta Braves):

1-8 (Cincinnati Reds):

1-9 (Detroit Tigers):

1-10 (Washington Nationals):

1-11 (Colorado Rockies):

1-12 (Kansas City Royals):

1-13 (Oakland Athletics):

1-14 (Texas Rangers):

1-15 (Cleveland Indians):

1-16 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-17 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-18 (Florida Marlins):

1-19 (St. Louis Cardinals):

1-20 (Toronto Blue Jays):

1-21 (Houston Astros):

1-22 (Minnesota Twins):

1-23 (Chicago White Sox):

1-24 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-25 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-26 (Milwaukee Brewers):

1-27 (Seattle Mariners):

1-28 (New York Yankees):

1-29 (Boston Red Sox):

1-30 (Tampa Bay Rays):

1-31 (New York Yankees):

1-32 (Chicago Cubs):

1-33 (Colorado Rockies):

As always, I'd like for this to be with realism in mind. So, take into account, if you will, what a team might need, how a team might draft, what a team might spend, etc.  Each poll will consist of 10 players and will last 48 hours.  Players will be listed alphabetically by last name.  I'm basing the listed players off of multiple other mock drafts, but feel free to suggest someone to be added/removed.

Let's try to have a little more conversation in the threads.  Just as important as WHO you vote for is WHY you vote for them.  :-)

Thanks, and have fun!

I think this might be an interesting discussion.  High school and college baseball offer an interesting dynamic that is unusual in pro ball: the prospect of two-way players.  It follows that players get drafted in MLB's Amateur Draft that are legitimate talents both as pitchers and as positional players. 

For the most part, when these players are drafted, the team is drafting him with one path in mind.  Here's the tricky question, though.  When you have a player that's a first round talent both as a pitcher and as a batter, how do you handle him?  Sometimes, the player answers the question for the team, refusing to sign if forced to play in the field (or on the mound).  Other times, the situation is less clear.

One such situation occurred with Casey Kelly and the Red Sox last June.  The Sox decided to play him on the mound for 100 innings, and then play him at shortstop for the remainder of the season.  While Boston has come up with a unique solution for Kelly, other teams are putting potential two-way players on more focused routes.  Aaron Hicks, for example, will exclusively be an outfielder in the minors, while Ethan Martin will stick to pitching.  They were also first round talents as a pitcher and a third baseman, respectively.

So here's the question.  If you're a GM, how do you handle such a player?  Do you take a focused approach, and develop a player exclusively at a position?  Or do you let the player's minor league stats decide his fate by playing him both ways?  I've set up a poll for this, but I'm hoping for some actual discussion on the topic.  I wanted to study previous cases of minor league two-way players, but I don't see enough guys from which I can draw conclusions.

Are there any interesting potential pitcher/position players in this year's draft class?  I know Mychal Givens is there; how would you handle him?

Figured this might be a fun thing to start.  Now, I've been looking at a lot of Mock Drafts lately, and none of them seem to agree (except for the first overall pick).  So, let's get this started to see what we come up with.

ON THE CLOCK: Seattle Mariners (#1-2)

DRAFT RECAP- Round 1:

1-1 (Washington Nationals): Stephen Strasburg, RHP, SDSU

1-2 (Seattle Mariners): ON THE CLOCK

1-3 (San Diego Padres):

1-4 (Pittsburgh Pirates):

1-5 (Baltimore Orioles):

1-6 (San Francisco Giants):

1-7 (Atlanta Braves):

1-8 (Cincinnati Reds):

1-9 (Detroit Tigers):

1-10 (Washington Nationals):

1-11 (Colorado Rockies):

1-12 (Kansas City Royals):

1-13 (Oakland Athletics):

1-14 (Texas Rangers):

1-15 (Cleveland Indians):

1-16 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-17 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-18 (Florida Marlins):

1-19 (St. Louis Cardinals):

1-20 (Toronto Blue Jays):

1-21 (Houston Astros):

1-22 (Minnesota Twins):

1-23 (Chicago White Sox):

1-24 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-25 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-26 (Milwaukee Brewers):

1-27 (Seattle Mariners):

1-28 (New York Yankees):

1-29 (Boston Red Sox):

1-30 (Tampa Bay Rays):

1-31 (New York Yankees):

1-32 (Chicago Cubs):

1-33 (Colorado Rockies):

Now, I'd like for this to be with realism in mind. So, take into account, if you will, what a team might need, how a team might draft, what a team might spend, etc.

Each poll will consist of 10 players and will last 48 hours.  Players will be listed alphabetically by last name.  I'm basing the listed players off of multiple other mock drafts, but feel free to suggest someone to be added/removed.

Thanks, and have fun!

Figured this might be a fun thing to start.  Now, I've been looking at a lot of Mock Drafts lately, and none of them seem to agree (except for the first overall pick).  So, let's get this started to see what we come up with.

ON THE CLOCK: Washington Nationals (#1-1)

DRAFT RECAP- Round 1:

1-1 (Washington Nationals): ON THE CLOCK

1-2 (Seattle Mariners):

1-3 (San Diego Padres):

1-4 (Pittsburgh Pirates):

1-5 (Baltimore Orioles):

1-6 (San Francisco Giants):

1-7 (Atlanta Braves):

1-8 (Cincinnati Reds):

1-9 (Detroit Tigers):

1-10 (Washington Nationals):

1-11 (Colorado Rockies):

1-12 (Kansas City Royals):

1-13 (Oakland Athletics):

1-14 (Texas Rangers):

1-15 (Cleveland Indians):

1-16 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-17 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-18 (Florida Marlins):

1-19 (St. Louis Cardinals):

1-20 (Toronto Blue Jays):

1-21 (Houston Astros):

1-22 (Minnesota Twins):

1-23 (Chicago White Sox):

1-24 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-25 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-26 (Milwaukee Brewers):

1-27 (Seattle Mariners):

1-28 (New York Yankees):

1-29 (Boston Red Sox):

1-30 (Tampa Bay Rays):

1-31 (New York Yankees):

1-32 (Chicago Cubs):

1-33 (Colorado Rockies):

Now, I'd like for this to be with realism in mind. So, take into account, if you will, what a team might need, how a team might draft, what a team might spend, etc.

Each poll will consist of 10 players and will last 48 hours.  Players will be listed alphabetically by last name.  I'm basing the listed players off of multiple other mock drafts, but feel free to suggest someone to be added/removed.

Thanks, and have fun!

No, that's not the name of a lowbrow comedy.  It's in reference to the fact that the Rangers are being ridiculously aggressive with two of their top prospects, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus.  Andrus has been named for some time now as the Rangers starting SS this year, but after learning that Neftali Feliz was being assigned to AAA to start the year, my jaw sort of dropped.  What are the Rangers thinking?  They had no real reason to do this, except to rush Feliz and Andrus to the majors.

Let's look into why they did it, and how the two will adjust.

Continue reading this post »

With all the ridiculous, pointless, annoying dynasty trade threads around, I wanted a legitimate conversation that could actually be interesting.

Let's talk about Shairon Martis- about how his development has gone, how to gauge him in relation to other prospects, and what to expect in the future.

Continue reading this post »

Welcome back.  I posted a top 50 list exactly three weeks ago today, with plans to eventually balloon it even further.  That list led to a ton of good discussion and argument, and it truly and honestly helped me refine the list as it grew bigger.  This is that refined, bigger list.  Is it better?  I don't know.  So, read on, and give me your opinions.  A list such as this was and is incredibly ambitious, and I am honestly very pleased with the results.  It will lead to a lot of disagreement, likely even more so than with my first list.

You'll notice that the format of the list is now very different.  I've split it up into the following groups: #1-10, #11-20, #21-30, #31-50, #51-75, and #76-101.  At the start of each section is one blurb that details any significant changes from the last list, and a second blurb that highlights one significant player battle within the range that gave me some trouble/controversy.  Meanwhile, each of the top 30 prospects here now have write-ups, in addition to sporadic reports on the final 71 players.  A few of the write-ups are carried over from the last list, but most (think: about 90%) have been just now changed or added. 

So, have at it.  This list was a lot of fun for me to create, and I hope it's a lot of fun for you to read and critique. 

Here goes nothing...

Continue reading this post »

I don't like to do prospect rankings.  They receive too many nitpicks, too much scrutiny.  That being said, I got bored the other night, and began to work on a top 10 prospect list for my own personal use.  That top 10 ballooned to 20, which then ballooned 30, and so on.  I finalized the list at 50.  Again- this is intended for my own personal use (I'm in a few franchise fantasy leagues), but I figured I would share it with you to get some feedback.

Anyway, feedback is exactly what I'm looking for.  This took a lot of time, and I really would appreciate any help I can get to improve it.

Thanks, and enjoy.  :-)

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I wrote last week about a little-known RP prospect, Jonathan Ortiz, and decided to write up a similar post today.  I hope that the analysis that follows this can provide some insight and discussion on the 2 prospects I highlight- neither of them have received much of it in the past.  If you're expecting Evan Longoria-meets-Francisco Liriano, stop reading...  These prospects are not studs, but just promising players who could one day be pretty good.  Cubs SP prospect Hung-Wen Chen is the first, and probably the most important, player that I'm featuring here.  The second is Freddy Galvis, a young SS that the Phillies signed out of Venezuela back in 2006.

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