SB Nation User Blog: RedSoxFaithful

101 Prospects: The List

RedSoxFaithful — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 20:24:32 -0000

Welcome back. I posted a top 50 list exactly three weeks ago today, with plans to eventually balloon it even further. That list led to a ton of good discussion and argument, and it truly and honestly helped me refine the list as it grew bigger. This is that refined, bigger list. Is it better? I don't know. So, read on, and give me your opinions. A list such as this was and is incredibly ambitious, and I am honestly very pleased with the results. It will lead to a lot of disagreement, likely even more so than with my first list.

You'll notice that the format of the list is now very different. I've split it up into the following groups: #1-10, #11-20, #21-30, #31-50, #51-75, and #76-101. At the start of each section is one blurb that details any significant changes from the last list, and a second blurb that highlights one significant player battle within the range that gave me some trouble/controversy. Meanwhile, each of the top 30 prospects here now have write-ups, in addition to sporadic reports on the final 71 players. A few of the write-ups are carried over from the last list, but most (think: about 90%) have been just now changed or added.

So, have at it. This list was a lot of fun for me to create, and I hope it's a lot of fun for you to read and critique.

Here goes nothing...

TOP 10:

Since we last visited:

Not much has changed in the top 10. Price, Wieters, and Heyward are still locked in. However, the single most controversial ranking last time- Tillman at #4- has been dramatically altered. I was very excited about that ranking when I first posted it, and I thought my initial explanation made sense, but over time I just stopped being able to justify it. He's still in my top 10, but I did drop him behind a couple other pitchers.

Key Battle: Chris Tillman vs. Madison Bumgarner vs. Trevor Cahill

I said last time that I was not high on Cahill. His stats are admittedly impressive for an extreme hitters' league, but he slipped quite a bit after the promotion to AA. You could say "But, he was just 20!", and I could counter with Chris Tillman, who started the year at AA, at age 20. So, between Tillman and Cahill, I'd definitely take Tillman. After that, it's Bumgarner and Tillman. Bumgarner is personal preference for me, but consider this- among minor leaguers with 90+ IP at their respective levels, Bumgarner was 2nd in the minors in K%, at 29.4%. Even more impressively, of the minors' top 5 in K%, Bumgarner easily had the lowest BB%, at 4.0%.

This, combined with the blurbs coming out of a BA chat last month (where it was said that the concerns over Bumgarner's secondary pitches are "overrated", and that Bumgarner may be the best pitching prospect in baseball), have me thinking that MadBum is a good pick at #5.

1.) David Price

Price is (still) the clear-cut #1 to me. People may disagree and put Wieters here, but you can't vote against a guy who is a near-lock to be a top-of-the-rotation ace. Only Kershaw would rank higher, if he were still eligible. It should also be of note, since this came into question last time, that Price's postseason with Tampa Bay has very little to do with this ranking. I like Price (as so many others do) because of his excellent stint in the minors, not his ridiculously small sample size in October. Hopefully, however, that excellent stint in the minors will help him carry over his play to future Octobers.

2.) Matt Wieters

A more accurate ranking for Wieters would be #1A. He's as good as anyone in the minors, and was probably major league ready about a year ago, when he was taken in the draft by the Orioles. This is a guy who has already drawn Mike Piazza comparisons, and there are some who say he can be even better. It seems impossible to me that someone could not be sold on this guy.

3.) Jason Heyward

I am ridiculously impressed with Jason Heyward's 2008. As far as hitters go, he could arguably end up better than Wieters. He's ranked lower because there's a little more risk, he's a little further away, and Wieters is staying at catcher. Heyward flirted with the .17/.17 club, but narrowly missed it with an ISO of .160 (his K% was 16.5%)

4.) Travis Snider

Yes, Snider "only" hit .275 last year. He struck out too much, too. But, it is absolutely crucial to remember that Snider is only 20 years old. Snider managed to flash already-developed power all season long, and it's only going to further develop as his career progresses. There's a great chance of him breaking camp with the Jays in 2009.

5.) Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner brings about more arguments than any other player on this list. Some people are not convinced that his Low-A stats will translate to high-level success. Some are worried about his secondary stuff. Others have faith that his slider will develop, and think he is the best non-Price pitcher in the minors. Put me in that second group. If he's this good with poor secondary stuff, and it's assured that his secondary pitches will develop at some level, then how incredible will he be once that happens?

6.) Cameron Maybin

Maybin's stock has dropped steadily since he was promoted to Detroit in 2007, but he is still easily a top 10 prospect in my mind. He still has all the tools that originally made him a top prospect, and his statistical dominance returned as the year wore on, ending with an incredible September in Florida.

7.) Dexter Fowler

I'm a big fan of Fowler. Compared to other elite center field prospects, he tends to be underrated, but he has some very good tools, and 2008 was a strong breakout year for him. His hit tool was as strong as ever, and he was doing it against elevated competition. There's a chance he starts the year in the majors, but it's more likely he returns to AAA for a final tuneup.

8.) Chris Tillman

At 20, Tillman dominated at AA. Not "held his own", "dominated'. He has a ton of potential, and could be heading up Baltimore's rotation by the end of 2009. That's sort of pretty good. The one question mark is his control, which will hopefully come as he gets older. He noticeably cut down on his walks in August.

9.) Trevor Cahill

Once again- I'm really not high on Cahill. He's good, don't get me wrong. He proved that with his very good stint in the worst pitching league in baseball. But his promotion to AA, in my opinion, revealed some holes. His control slipped, and he didn't look like quite the ace that he was earlier in the season. He's still just 20, and he's still an elite prospect, but he has a little more to prove.

10.) Mike Moustakas

Moustakas will get into the top 10 in more places than not. Here, he makes it as a fringe guy. His power is nice, but would be nicer from SS than 3B. I made a Brandon Wood comparison in the last list, and was corrected with regards to Wood's fielding ability. I think the comparison is still valid between their bats.

FROM #11 TO #20:

Since we last visited:

Lots of things are different on the interior, but nothing moved in and nothing moved out. The changes come from primarily two changes in opinion. First, Mike Stanton and Matt LaPorta were swapped for reasons that will be detailed in their write-ups. Second, the three-pitcher battle detailed next.

Key Battle: Jhoulys Chacin vs. Jordan Zimmermann vs. Neftali Feliz

Last time, these three were ranked with Feliz first, Zimmermann second, and Chacin third. They are now reversed. Why? Because digging deeper into the stats, Feliz is simply not as impressive. He didn't make as many starts as the other two, and he didn't go nearly as deep into games, pitching less than 5 innings per start. This doesn't even begin to touch on his shaky control.

It seems obvious to me that Chacin is #1 in this group, as a guy who can take on innings and stop guys from taking free bases. He is only 4 months older than Feliz, so age should not be a factor. Zimmermann is a middle-of-the-road type here. He's pretty well-rounded, and all three are very good prospects right now, but at this point, I would bet on Jhoulys.

11.) Colby Rasmus

I wasn't a big fan of Rasmus going into 2008, and he did nothing to make me one last year. He's up here because he's still got all the tools, but his season was discouraging. I don't think I could believe in an argument to move him into the top 10.

12.) Andrew McCutchen

While he has been dropped in these rankings to the back of the elite CF pack, that does not necessarily mean McCutchen's stock has dropped. He sort of treaded water at AAA this year- developing, but not getting noticeably better or worse. The biggest change is the addition of plate discipline to his arsenal of tools. His defense is phenomenal. I hate to make the comparison, but McCutchen's absolute ceiling, his best case, everything-goes-right scenario, is Ichiro-like.

13.) Rick Porcello

The hype surrounding Porcello going into 2008 was immense, and in a lot ways, he disappointed. In other ways, he gave us a delicious taste of what's to come. Your thoughts on him may differ, but I was definitely underwhelmed. Yes, he was pitching without his curve, and yes, he was on a short leash. But, look, Bumgarner didn't have any (good) secondary stuff, either, and his stats lapped Porcello's, easily. Where are the K's? Unless Porcello's curve is out-of-this-world good, and we have no reason to believe that it is, I am afraid that he'll end up as Jeremy Sowers v2.0.

14.) Matt LaPorta

It was known going into the 2007 draft that LaPorta's bat was very nearly MLB-ready. That part of his game has not disappointed, as he's tallied 34 home runs in about 500 professional at-bats. However, his position is still as uncertain as ever. I asked a friend to classify LaPorta, and the answer was "Konerko in the OF". That works really well, and there's not much more to be said with him.

15.) Jhoulys Chacin

Chacin's combination of endurance, power, and control has made him one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. If you're not counting, he's #6 on this list. Like Cahill, Chacin dominated in the CAL League, which is no small feat. He'll start AA as a 21-year old, with a chance to push to the majors by midseason.

16.) Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmermann, like I said in the last iteration of this list, is a major sleeper. He enters 2009 as the Nationals' best prospect, but this is obviously an aggressive grade. I really like his polish. In a league with many good pitchers, Zimmermann had the third lowest opposing AVG. Another good season gets him into the top 10, almost without argument.

17.) Michael Stanton

In response to a problem someone had with Stanton at #13 on the last list, I wrote the following blurb, which pretty much completes my thoughts on him: I’m wildly enthusiastic. Stanton’s only real question is with his K’s. He has ridiculous power, makes good contact, takes a good amount of walks, and has a passable amount of speed. Yes, his defense isn’t fantastic, but he’s still playing at CF, and can move to corner outfield if necessary (where his bat would still play very, very well).

18.) Neftali Feliz

Some lists I've seen have put Feliz in the top 10. That's a huge stretch. He's young, and he has a couple good pitches, but the question marks are numerous. His control is shaky, his durability is questionable... I wouldn't mind having him on my team, but beware of an implosion.

19.) Tim Alderson

And the pitchers keep coming. Going into the year, Alderson's control was heavily touted. That held up, as his 5.9% BB% was very, very good. I am not as high on him as many, but I like Alderson a good deal. He needs a better second year to convince me that he's an elite pitching prospect.

20.) Pedro Alvarez

On the one hand, if all the scouting reports on Alvarez are true, he should get half this ranking (#10). On the other hand, the lack of any significant data is a huge knock against Alvarez, whether or not that's his fault. There's not much more to say about him than this. I want to see what he does next year, so chalk this up as a (slightly) conservative ranking.

FROM #21 TO #30:

Since we last visited:

Here come the shake-ups. While there were only 2 completely new names in this range compared to the last list, no fewer than 8 players changed places in the group of 10. The changes are led by Justin Smoak, who ascended more spots from the last iteration than anybody else on the entire list.

This look at the list's top 5 changes shows how impressive Smoak's ascension is. Only two other players rose more than 10 spots. All of the other similarly drastic movements were drops in the list.

Key Battle: Josh Vitters vs. Tim Beckham

In the 2007 draft, it was widely accepted that Josh Vitters was the top high school position player available. In the 2008 draft, that honor went to Tim Beckham. Critics of Vitters cited a very low floor, and his short season stats last summer gave those critics some extra ammunition. This year, however, they were silence, as Vitters put up a fantastic line and displayed the tools that made him a top 5 pick. Beckham, meanwhile, is sort of where Vitters was. He struggled in short season ball, and while that obviously doesn't mean much, I always thought of him as a distinct #3 in his own draft class (behind Alvarez and Smoak). If he shows us something next year, and he probably will, then great. If not, I wouldn't be all that surprised.

21.) Lars Anderson

It's a convenient comparison, since they're in the same organization, but I see a lot of Kevin Youkilis in Lars Anderson. Anderson will likely have more power when all is said and done, and Youkilis is the better defender (but maybe not by much), but the two have a lot of similarities. I like Anderson's discipline, and he is still only 21 years old.

22.) Brett Anderson

Anderson's control is extremely, extremely impressive. He's a groundball pitcher, and while I know this is the stereotypical comparison for groundball pitchers, he looks a lot like the lefty version of a poor man's Brandon Webb. If that sounds like I'm trying my absolute best to not over-compliment him, it's because I am trying my absolute best to not over-compliment him.

23.) Justin Smoak

I see a future superstar in Smoak. Think that's extreme? I don't- he has power and patience at the plate, and I see him developing into a Teixeira-type after he fully develops. I'm optimistic, enthusiastic, whatever you want to call me. I'm on the SmoakTrain.

24.) Mat Gamel

People were ranking Gamel in the top 15- top 10, even- at midseason. The praise his bat was receiving was almost over the top. Indeed, Gamel declined sharply in July and August, and his fielding ability is still awful (despite improving somewhat from 2007). That being said, his .934 OPS (even with sub-.700 OPSes in July and August) is impressive.

25.) Josh Vitters

To me, Vitters' 2008 was a statement that he is still the player we all thought he was in high school. He didn't swing at a ton of pitches (K% of 16.2%), but he does need to take more walks. Once he adds power, I could see Rolen-esque numbers from him.

26.) Tim Beckham

I know that short season statistics are nearly meaningless when it comes to new draftees. Really, I get that. But I need to see something positive from Beckham before moving him higher. Superficially, Beckham "improved" as the year went on- his monthly OPS went from .494 to .579 to .743. However, his K% rose with each month, too, and his BB% was extremely disappointing. I want to see a full season from Beckham.

27.) Jake Arrieta

I'm fairly high on Arrieta. He sort of came in under the radar (well, compared to the other guys around this range), and while BA ranked him second in the Carolina League, there was only one other elite prospect in that league (Wieters). He needs to fine tune his control, but I like his K's and the initial line he put up.

28.) Carlos Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco bugs me. On the one hand, yeah, he's a great prospect, he's put up nice stats, and he deserves the praise he gets. But, he worries me. His stats have taken a hit at each level, most notably last year following his promotion to AAA. The scariest thing about that stat line was the massive drop in strikeouts. If that continues, I could see him turn into Noah Lowry. I sincerely hope I am overreacting to that stint. He admittedly looked good this year, but his time in AAA was the first time since 2006 that Carrasco has put up a FIP less than 3.00.

29.) Carlos Santana

I'm worried about Santana. He is an extreme fluke-risk, and that scares me. One year removed from a sub-.700 OPS, Santana looked good in two separate leagues, which is reassuring. If he is for real, I love his patience at the plate, and his power from catcher. Remember that he will be 23 when he opens 2009 at AA, and he has already shown weaknesses when being pushed multiple levels in a season.

30.) Tommy Hanson

There are those here who will crucify me for Hanson's ranking. He has a cult following that seems to think he's a top 5 pitching prospect, and I truly do not see it. He needs to cut down on his walks. I think his poor control in AA is more indicative of his abilities than the decent control in A+.

FROM #31 TO #50:

Since we last visited:

More shake-ups! 6 players are new to the list in this range, led by the Eric Hosmer and the one and only Derek Holland (32 and 33, respectively). Yeah, I finally broke down and included Holland. I still don't like him much at all, but I can't reasonably exclude him. Besides, I would have had to mention him eventually, since this is a top 101 list. The other notable move was Jarrod Parker's plummet into spot #40. Wondering what happened? Well, when deciding between Chacin/Zimmermann/Feliz, I took a quick glance at Parker and noticed how unflattering his statistics were. After digging deeper, more and more guys kept passing him in my rankings. An even more drastic descent occurred with Fernando Martinez, who fell to #49. That descent is explained below.

Also, you'll note that from here on out, write-ups for players are only sporadic. Any write-ups from the last list will be reposted in this one.

Key Battle 1: Ben Revere vs. Aaron Hicks

In the first top 50, I placed Hicks at 36 and Revere at 48. Here, they're nearly swapped. To me, while Hicks' raw stats looked better in 2008, he did it in a shorter season. Going into the year, Hicks had a lot of questions about his bat, and I don't know how many of those questions were answered. Revere has good press to his name (arguably more than Hicks does), and according to BA, he isn't just a slap hitter. I'll take the 5-tool guy with a question about his throwing arm over the 5-tool guy with a question about his bat, but maybe that's just me.

Key Battle 2: All Tools, No Stats

There was a sort of argument following the last list, stemming from the rankings of Fernando Martinez, Angel Villalona, and Jose Tabata, and the lack of rankings of Carlos Triunfel and Elvis Andrus. Here, I've tried to be slightly more consistent, and fault all of them for being toolsy, no-stat players. In fact, all of those players (save for F-Mart) have been dropped out of the top 50. My key problem is with Martinez, I think. People have been making excuses for him for literally 3 seasons now, and I'm beginning to wonder why. At what point can we actually expect him to put up stats? At what point is it ok to stop having blind faith in him?

31.) Brian Matusz

32.) Eric Hosmer

33.) Derek Holland

I finally broke down and included Holland. I still am not high on him, at all. But, this is a guy that would have had to be included at some point, since this is a lengthy list. I am still skeptical because of the attention (or lack thereof) that he got from BA- remember that at one point in the season, John Manuel said he'd consider taking Martin Perez over Holland. And he went out of his way to make that point. Also note that BA put him 9th in his own league, so before someone complains about this ranking, remember that he's ahead of 6 people that he was behind on that list.

34.) Jeremy Hellickson

35.) Brett Wallace

36.) Alcides Escobar

A high BABIP has kept me from ranking him any higher. His batting skill may have improved last year, but it was still heavily dependent on luck. I am worried about what will happen to him when he gets to the majors, especially considering how often he makes contact.

37.) Buster Posey

38.) Jesus Montero

39.) Jordan Schafer

I like Schafer more than this ranking probably lets on. He still has his question marks, but he hit very well once back from his suspension. He needs to get another full season under his belt before I can get him any higher.

40.) Jarrod Parker

41.) Adrian Cardenas

42.) J.P. Arencibia

43.) Ben Revere

44.) Wade Davis

Would be ranked higher if not for questions about his control. His K/BB flirted with 2.0 this year, way down from the 2007 season that got him into most top 20s. He's dropped even further on this list from the last one.

45.) David Huff

46.) Kyle Blanks

47.) Logan Morrison

48.) Michael Saunders

Saunders was a tough player to rank for me. I'm putting him here mostly based on my faith in BA. They've give him a lot of ink for years now, and he's put up consistently good-but-not-great numbers. He supposedly has tools coming out the wazoo, and BA loved him more this year than in years past. I'm banking on them here- it's another caution ranking, with a short leash.

49.) Fernando Martinez

At what point does F-Mart's lack of production stop being excused as a product of his young age? My vote is for "now". Not that #49 is bad, but it's a drastic dropoff from his rankings last offseason. Remember, this is a guy who was in the same league as Tillman and Snider, only a half year younger than both of them, and performed at about 50% of their levels. That might not be fair, but I can't justify moving him higher.

50.) Aaron Hicks

FROM #51 TO #75:

Holdovers from the last Top 50:

There are 4 players in this range that have dropped out of my last top 50. They are as follows: Michael Bowden (53), Jose Tabata (56), Angel Villalona (57), and Austin Jackson (63). The reasons for these drops are all very different. For Bowden, it was his lack of a legitimate plus pitch. For Tabata, it was a lesser emphasis on his late season outburst. For Villalona, it was increased concern over his awful plate discipline. And, for Jackson, it was his lack of any sort of professional statistical prowess, ever. Look at his seasonal output, park- and luck-neutralized per minorleaguesplits.com:

These are not the statistics of a top prospect, especially considering Jackson's mediocre tools (compared to other players here). In a comment following the last list, I dug deep into Jackson's stats and found that the entire base of his value came from exactly 3 good months, displayed here (again, neutralized for park and luck):

These 3 months are so out of whack with the rest of his career that Jackson's 4th best month was .120 points lower than the 3rd in OPS. When you've been a professional baseball player for 4 seasons, and 21 months, and exactly 3 of those 21 months are clearly good... Well, that doesn't exactly constitute a great argument to call that player a top prospect.

Key Battle: The Reliever Problem

Where to put a reliever? In my case, there's exactly one relief pitcher (Daniel Bard) on this entire list, and I had a lot of problems deciding where to place him. I went with #70. Not only did Bard completely dominate low-A, but he looked very good against higher competition at AA. He may never return to a starting rotation (scratch "may" for "most likely will"), but he has completely revived his status as a prospect. There are other players here who will likely become relievers at some point (Jake McGee?), but Bard is the only one on the list that already is one.

51.) Freddy Freeman

52.) James McDonald

53.) Michael Bowden

I am a Red Sox fan, and yet, I am not a fan of Michael Bowden. It is important to not get overly excited about Bowden. He doesn't have a true plus pitch, and to me profiles as nothing more than a #4 starter on a contender.

54.) Chris Coghlan

55.) Matt Dominguez

56.) Jose Tabata

Tabata would not be ranked here at all if not for his strong second half with Pittsburgh. I am still extremely iffy with him, as anybody should be. It was sort of a small sample size, and his time with the team could not make his season totals any less underwhelming. But, tally this ranking up as a wait-and-see. He has the skills, it's just a question of whether or not he's finally turned the corner.

57.) Angel Villalona

BA's most recent report on Villalona claims that "his hitting will improve once he gets a better grasp of the strike zone". I want a little more indication that some sort of improvement regarding that grasp is coming. 118/18 is an awful, awful K/BB ratio.

58.) Brett Cecil

59.) Carlos Triunfel

60.) Yonder Alonso

61.) Reid Brignac

62.) Elvis Andrus

63.) Austin Jackson

64.) Gio Gonzalez

It is no coincidence that in Gonzalez's two worst months in 2008, he also posted his two worst BB% of the season. They weren't drastically worse, but control is Gonzalez's one obstacle between him and the status of a top prospect. He clearly rebounded in July and August, and earned himself a promotion to Oakland. Let's see if that continues into 2009.

65.) Phillipe Aumont

66.) Engel Beltre

67.) Mike Montgomery

68.) Wilmer Flores

69.) Daniel Cortes

70.) Daniel Bard

71.) Jaff Decker

Decker has quickly become one of my favorite players in all of the minors. He doesn't just have good plate discipline- he has unbelievable plate discipline. He walked more than he struck out in the AZL, and that really is no small feat in a league where pitchers often have ridiculously high K/BBs. I don't care who you are, or what level of professional competitition you're up against. A .523 OBP is staggering.

72.) Jake McGee

73.) Martin Perez

74.) Gor\kys Hernandez

75.) Jeremy Jeffress

FROM #76 TO #100:

Ranking Process of the Last 25:

I put together a rough list of about 50 names, broke them into pitchers and hitters, and ranked them in those lists. Then, I went through a systematic sort, comparing the top guys from each list. It resulted in these 25 players. This was, by far, the hardest portion of the list to rank. It got into extreme player preference, more than at any other part of the list. Please take that into account when commenting. There's really no way to say whether, say, Nick Weglarz is a better prospect than, say, Wilin Rosario.

76.) Gordon Beckham

77.) Aaron Poreda

78.) Ross Detwiler

79.) Julio Borbon

Very few hitters this year have flown under the radar as much as Borbon has, especially when you compare his 2008 line to Jacoby Ellsbury's in 2006, the year he flew onto top prospect lists everywhere. The seasons are eerily similar- both took place in their age-22 seasons, both split time between high-A and AA, and both looked better at the latter level. The list goes onto include both players' very low-strikeout tendencies, and potential to add power. The differences? Borbon has problems taking walks, and needs to choose his stolen base opportunities better. But, his good showing in the AFL (with shockingly good plate discipline) could push him to AAA to start next season.

80.) Daniel Murphy

81,) Chris Carter

82.) Max Ramirez

83.) Cedric Hunter

84.) Hector Rondon

Rondon was a big sleeper of mine going into 2008, and he didn't disappoint. His control slipped a little from 2007, but he added some strikeouts, too. Many people will disagree with this ranking, and I will agree that it's aggressive. But, I believe in this kid. Another good year puts him on more of these lists, and likely much higher.

85.) Nicholas Weglarz

86.) Aaron Cunningham

87.) Josh Reddick

88.) Beau Mills

89.) Vin Mazzaro

Not as high on Mazzaro as some. While his 2008 season at AA, in a vacuum, would likely be enough to make him a top 50 prospect, his previous two seasons, as well as his time at AAA in 2008, beg to differ. Oakland thought enough of Mazzaro to continue promoting him despite his struggles, so maybe it isn't completely unreasonable to think that he's turned a corner. However, it's more likely (in my opinion, at least) that his 2008 was an aberration.

90.) Wilin Rosario

91.) Kila Ka'aihue

92.) Angel Salome

Things we know: Salome is short, and he's fat. But, we also know that he hits like there's no tomorrow, and he is serviceable defensively. Salome's BABIP was very high this year (.400), but it would be silly to discount his hitting abilities based on that when his 2006 (a near-normal .327 BABIP) produced a .798 OPS. The guy can hit, and he has shot up the growing list of top catching prospects. He turned 22 this season, and could push for a job in Milwaukee (which is obligated to one Jason Kendall for one more year) by the 2009 ASB.

93.) Nick Noonan

94.) Caleb Gindl

95.) Jonathan Niese

96.) James Simmons

97.) Brandon Erbe

98.) Tyler Flowers

Flowers is a very good prospect in his own right, but more likely than not, he will be the bridge between Casey Kotchman and Freddy Freeman at first base. It's a disappointing reality, because Flowers showed a ton of plate discipline, and very good power potential. However, with McCann at catcher in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, it's just that- a reality.

99.) Jharmidy DeJesus

100.) Michael Burgess

101.) Henry Alberto Rodriguez

For the second straight season, it was a tale of two years for HAR. In 2007, after a great year in the Midwest League, he slipped dramatically in Winter ball. This year, after a good stint in the California League, he slipped again with a promotion to the Texas League. Which HAR is real? If Oakland continues to be aggressive with him, we likely won't know for sure until he reaches the majors.

AFTERTHOUGHTS:

The 20 Who Just Missed (Alphabetical):

Jason Castro

David Cooper

Scott Cousins

Daniel Duffy

Todd Frazier

Christian Friedrich

Greg Golson

Wes Hodges

Kellen Kulbacki

Andrew Lambo

Michael Main

Chris Marrero

Lou Marson

Tim Melville

Adam Moore

Cole Rohrbough

Austin Romine

Neftali Soto

Julio Teheran

Sean West

Ranking Changes:

-Removed Pablo Sandoval from the list for lack of prospect status.

-Added Chris Carter at #81.

-Removed Wilson Ramos and Blake Wood from the "Just Missed" list.

-Added Todd Frazier and Kellen Kulbacki to the "Just Missed" list.

-Removed Michael Inoa from the "Just Missed" list.

-Added Michael Main to the "Just Missed" list.

-Swapped Brett Anderson (#27 -> #22) and Jake Arrieta (#22 -> #27).

Noticeable Trends:

One thing that really shocked me was the amount of catchers in the list. There were literally 7 catchers that I could have filled in from #95-101, and it would have been just as legitimate as the 7 players that I picked. I also may have been a little inconsistent with 2008 draftees- some (Smoak, Alonso), I blindly ranked aggressively; others (Beckham, Hicks), I was a little more conservative with. It was a conscious thing, though.

Closing Comments:

This was one of the more aggressive and ambitious projects I've worked on, and it is still primarily for personal use. The write-ups here were for you guys to get a glimpse into my reasoning, and why I put certain players in certain spots. I hope this leads to a lot of good discussion- that's why it was written. I am always looking for advice and criticism, so please do not shy away. You will not hurt my feelings.

Thanks for reading!

Top 50 Prospects: End of 2008 Edition

RedSoxFaithful — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:46:55 -0000

I don't like to do prospect rankings. They receive too many nitpicks, too much scrutiny. That being said, I got bored the other night, and began to work on a top 10 prospect list for my own personal use. That top 10 ballooned to 20, which then ballooned 30, and so on. I finalized the list at 50. Again- this is intended for my own personal use (I'm in a few franchise fantasy leagues), but I figured I would share it with you to get some feedback.

Anyway, feedback is exactly what I'm looking for. This took a lot of time, and I really would appreciate any help I can get to improve it.

Thanks, and enjoy. :-)

THE TOP 5:

Pretty much locked in for me. It's clear to me here who I'd take 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. I think these guys are all legitimate top 5 prospects, who all inherently belong here. Any lower would be doing them a disservice.

1.) David Price

Price is the clear-cut #1 to me. People may disagree and put Wieters here, but you can't vote against a guy who is a near-lock to be a top-of-the-rotation ace. Only Kershaw would rank higher, if he were still eligible.

2.) Matt Wieters

A more accurate ranking for Wieters would be #1A. He's as good as anyone in the minors, and was probably major league ready about a year ago.

3.) Jason Heyward

4.) Chris Tillman

5.) Travis Snider

Yes, Snider "only" hit .275 last year. He struck out too much, too. But, it is absolutely crucial to remember that, like Tillman, Snider is only 20 years old. Snider managed to flash already-developed power all season long, and it's only going to further develop as his career progresses. There's a great chance of him breaking camp with the Jays in 2009.

NUMBERS 6-10:

These guys are mostly interchangeable. I could see arguments for swapping Maybin and Fowler or Cahill and Bumgarner. I think Moustakas is pretty locked in for me at 10- I can't see him going any higher. Maybe lower, though. I think this group is pretty separate from the top 5. It would be hard to justify moving any of these in... You could potentially make a good case for Maybin, I guess, but I just don't see what he has over Snider, Tillman, or Heyward.

6.) Cameron Maybin
He's fallen some, sure, but Maybin's still got the tools- and the stats came back as the season wore on.

7.) Dexter Fowler
Fowler finally developed his power this year, one of the few question marks about his tool set. To me, he's got to be in the conversation for best pure CF prospect.

8.) Trevor Cahill
I'm not as sold on Cahill's season as some, but it's tough to argue against putting him into the top 10.

9.) Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner, on the other hand, I'm actually really sold on. It is a toss-up between him and Cahill. BA recently said that the concerns about MadBum's secondary pitches are "overrated".

10.) Mike Moustakas
The next Brandon Wood? Moustakas has similar power from SS, similar questions about the contact tool, and similar hype. This is a cautious top 10 ranking, and he has a short leash for me on this list.

NUMBERS 11-30:

Here's where the arguments will reside. These guys are mostly ranked based on player preference. Early in the list, there are guys who clearly belong in the top 15 (maybe even the top 10), and that probably stops at about LaPorta. After that, there will be guys who may not even belong in the top 30, or guys who bring about some controversial rankings. While I like the order that I settled on, I'm not tied to it. Most players here are interchangeable.

11.) Colby Rasmus
12.) Andrew McCutchen
13.) Mike Stanton

14.) Rick Porcello

I'm just not high on Porcello yet. Yes, he was on a leash. Yes, the Tigers were focusing on his fastball. It doesn't matter to me- I need to see actual stats, actual domination, before I can justify anything higher than this. And hey- #14 is pretty damn good, regardless. He's in the "very good but not great" category for me.

15.) Neftali Feliz
16.) Matt LaPorta

17.) Jordan Zimmermann

Major sleeper alert. Zimmermann could shoot into the 2010 Top 10 with another season like his 2009. He looks very, very polished, and posted the Eastern League's third lowest opposing batting average. I want to see more.

18.) Jhoulys Chacin
19.) Tim Alderson
20.) Pedro Alvarez
21.) Lars Anderson
22.) Jarrod Parker

23.) Carlos Santana

Ok, I'm skeptical. But BA thinks he's for real. Real-life GMs think he's for real. Various other prospect sites think he's for real. Maybe he's, um, for real? We'll see. Like I said, I'm skeptical. Much like with Moustakas, this is a cautious ranking with a short leash.

24.) Tim Beckham
25.) Mat Gamel

26.) Josh Vitters

Yet another cautious ranking. He had hype, he lost hype, and he's gotten it back again. I like him, personally, but he's still a high-risk player. His hitting tool is coming along faster than I expected, but at the same time... it was the Northwest League. Let's see how he does in a full-season environment.

27.) Jake Arrieta
28.) Brett Anderson
29.) Carlos Carrasco

30.) Fernando Martinez

At what point does F-Mart's lack of production stop being excused as a product of his young age? My vote is for "now". Not that #30 is bad, but it's a dropoff from his rankings last offseason. Remember, this is a guy who was in the same league as Tillman and Snider, only a half year younger than both of them, and performed at about 50% of their levels. That might not be fair, but I can't justify moving him higher.

NUMBERS 31-50:

Finishing up the list, I'm sure you'll notice a few snubs and a few surprises. I am nearly positive that Derek Holland and Michael Inoa will be two of the first names mentioned in the comments... I omitted Holland because of the disproportionate hype/stats ratio. He has gotten the hype here but not at BA and other sites. He has the stats to back up some of the hype he's getting here, but he's also not good enough to verify all of the hype. I'm too uncertain of what he is, and the same goes with Inoa. I want actual stats before I do anything with him... International signees are too hard to gauge, and we were burned last year by Teheran (even if he still has a bright future, which he does). Gio Gonzalez was originally a mid-40 ranking on this list, but got dropped out in favor of Matusz. Reid Brignac was originally number 50, but got bumped for Smoak.

31.) Buster Posey
32.) Jeremy Hellickson
33.) Tommy Hanson

34.) Jordan Schafer

35.) Adrian Cardenas
36.) Aaron Hicks

37.) Wade Davis

Would be ranked higher if not for questions about his control. His K/BB flirted with 2.0 this year, way down from the 2007 season that got him into most top 20s.

38.) Alcides Escobar

39.) Justin Smoak

40.) Kyle Blanks

I'm skeptical of Blanks, but his bat has looked good for two years now. There probably isn't enough hype around him.

41.) J.P. Arencibia
42.) Michael Bowden
43.) Brian Matusz
44.) Kyle Skipworth

45.) Michael Saunders

46.) Brett Wallace
47.) Austin Jackson
48.) Ben Revere

49.) Jose Tabata

50.) Angel Villalona

Under the Radar: Hung-Wen Chen and Freddy Galvis

RedSoxFaithful — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:05:13 -0000

I wrote last week about a little-known RP prospect, Jonathan Ortiz, and decided to write up a similar post today. I hope that the analysis that follows this can provide some insight and discussion on the 2 prospects I highlight- neither of them have received much of it in the past. If you're expecting Evan Longoria-meets-Francisco Liriano, stop reading... These prospects are not studs, but just promising players who could one day be pretty good. Cubs SP prospect Hung-Wen Chen is the first, and probably the most important, player that I'm featuring here. The second is Freddy Galvis, a young SS that the Phillies signed out of Venezuela back in 2006.

Chen signed with the Cubs out of Taiwan in April 2007, for $200,000, and actually reported stateside before the season was over, getting in 7.2 innings. His fastball is clocked as high as 94, but he generally pitches in the high 80s. Chen is definitely a finesse pitcher- as a prospect, he reminds me a lot of the White Sox' Mark Buehrle, and his first full season in 2008 verifies that comparison.

Looking at Chen's BB% and K% this season (4.8% and 16.6%, respectively), they closely model- and actually a little better than- Buehrle's career numbers in those categories (5.5% and 14.1%, respectively). That being said, at the age of 22, Buehrle was playing in his second major league season. Chen is graduating high A.

The more I look at the two, though, the more I love that comparison. If Chen can pitch as well as he did this year in 2009, when he'll likely be in AA, there's a chance the Cubs challenge him with a Spring Training audition in 2010. While his ceiling may very well be similar to Buehrle's, it's far more likely that Chen ends up in the bullpen. He was already used as a reliever in 7 of his 29 appearances this year, and while that number should decrease next year, the Cubs have many SP prospects ahead of Chen.

Philadelphia Phillies SS Freddy Galvis, meanwhile, is on the opposite end of the spectrum as Chen. Galvis, despite having great tools and scouting blurbs, has not quite been able to translate that into numbers. The consensus is that Galvis is one of the minors' best defensive infielders, that he could be a top defensive SS in the majors right now. And, it's probably not an exaggeration for the 18-year old prospect. Kevin Goldstein gave Galvis some ink back in July, and he's been named the Phillies' best defensive infielder by Baseball America in each of the last 3 (!) seasons.

The question- and, admittedly, it's a big one- is with Galvis' bat. He still hasn't put up an OPS over .590, and his speed (which he is said to have) has not translated into success on the basepaths (a career 23-for-34). There is hope for Galvis to develop offensively, but his ceiling in that department is still a 1999/2000 version of Pokey Reese. It's not a bad thing- Reese was a starting SS for over 4 years- but at an increasingly offensive position, Galvis needs to start producing. Luckily for him, there is almost definitely a spot on a major league team (in some capacity) for a guy with this good a glove. Besides, he's making some progress already- the one time BA mentioned him this season, it was for his bat.

Let's see what you guys think of these two. Have you heard anything about them before? Does Chen have a shot to move quickly in 2009 (the Cubs already challenged him last season)? Can Galvis come around as a cross between Reese and Adam Everett? I have a few other prospects for whom I want to write articles similar to this, if the reception here is good... Thanks for reading, regardless of that.

For Your Consideration: Jonathan Ortiz

RedSoxFaithful — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:24:24 -0000

I have been following Yankee minor leaguer Jonathan Ortiz for some time now, and have seen literally no other opinions or coverage of him. I have not (and do not) know what to make of the guy, so I'll give a little information about him here and see what you all can add.

Jonathan Ortiz is old for his level. He's 22, in low A ball, and the Yankees have (somewhat inexplicably) been slow in moving him up. He signed out of the Dominican in 2003, and was used as both a SP and a RP (with ridiculous success) in three seasons with the Yankees' DSL team (2004-2006). Ortiz made his stateside debut in 2007, and since then, has gotten as high as A+ Tampa, working exclusively as a reliever.

So, since at this point, people might be saying, "So what?", I think that it's time to note his stats. Though I don't have data for the Yankees' 2004 and 2005 DSL seasons, all of Ortiz's other seasons are noted below.

We have here a reliever with Lincecum-esque K-rates, Alderson-esque control, and Webb-esque HR tendencies. On top of that, his BABIP was actually high this year, at .344. On top of that, he has a history of starting (7 GS in 2006), though it's extremely unlikely he returns to it. Given the market that Ortiz's organization is in, media outlets everywhere should be praising this guy as the best future closer prospect this side of Tony Sipp. They aren't; why?

Jonathan Ortiz is not a top prospect, or anything close to it. I am not advocating for him to be treated as such. But, I'd love to know exactly what it is the Yankees have here. The stats scream stud, the lack of attention paid to him does not. Are there any followers of the kid out there who can shine some light on the situation?

Interesting 1-for-1 Offer

RedSoxFaithful — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 20:46:02 -0000

I have Colin Balester in a franchise league, and have just been offered Corey Brown for him, after a bunch of nagging about Brown.

Now, I like Balester, and think he deserves a little more credit for doing what he's done as a 20/21 year old.

That being said, my system is relatively pitching heavy, and Brown is showing a lot of potential. For starters, BA ranked him pretty highly in their Top 200 draft rankings, even before his outburst in Oakland's system.

Now, Project Prospect (whose rankings are flawed, and generally favor draftees) has Brown 4th in the A's system. Both PP and Senor Sickels have Balester far outside Washington's Top 5.

For context, the team with Brown has also offered a package of Cyle Hankerd, Young-Il Jung, and Kyle Winters for Balester. No other significant offers exist, though interest does from several teams.

What do you all think?