SB Nation User Blog: RedSoxFaithful

Midseason 2009 Top 100 Prospects

RedSoxFaithful — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:17:07 -0000

Hello, hello. This is my second time doing a Top 100 list, with the first coming just about 9 months ago. As I said multiple times in that post, I do these primarily for my own personal use (I'm in a dynasty league just like all of you), but I also like to get criticisms and suggestions from the community. So, I'm posting my list here, with rationales, and letting you pick it apart. Don't feel obligated to be gentle; I've been through this before, and it won't help either of us to go easy on me.

This edition of the list is going to be broken down into quarters. This is not to say that there is a huge dip in performance between #25 and #26, #50 and #51, or #75 and #76... It's just to make the list easier to digest. In fact, as many people have said many times, the actual difference between spots on these lists is minimal. So keep that in mind!

Couple other things. First off, if I mention what a guy profiles as, or what a guy compares to, I'm only talking about statistical comparisons. I have not check body types, handedness, pitch arsenals, swings, deliveries, etc., unless otherwise noted. Also, I have purposely not included any 2009 Draftees, regardless of whether or not they've signed. I realize that this limits the usefulness of the list, but it makes this a whole lot easier, and the lack of pro data makes me weary of draftees, anyway. All I would be going off of is a mashup of professional analysts' opinions. (That being said... yes, Strasburg would be #1 ;-) )

Now, before I get to the rankings, I'd just like to explain how I came to this list. First off, I got a pool of names that were considered. These were from past prospect lists, midseason lists this year, and current minor league leaderboards. Next, I arranged them by position (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/P). I ranked them within their positions, and then I combined all the non-pitcher positions into a hitters' list. I accomplished this by taking one player at a time from the six players at the top of the positional lists at any given time. Finally, I combined the hitters and pitchers in a similar fashion, asking myself which of the top players on a list I preferred systematically. After I arrived at a Top 100 list, I just tinkered with it every couple days if I saw something quirky. I'm finding this sort of confusing to explain, so I hope it's alright to understand- if you have any questions, ask, and I'll be happy to elaborate.

Anyway, without further ado, let's get to the list, after the jump.

Quartile One: From One to Twenty-Five

#1: Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

Heyward is a future superstar, and there is almost no argument for him to drop out of this top spot. BP's Kevin Goldstein said it best when he said that Heyward is "one of those guys where it's not only impossible to find a scout who doesn't like him, it's impossible to find one that doesn't think he's going to be a massive star." He turns 20 on Sunday, and is still mashing at AA.

#2: Mike Stanton, OF, FLA

I was higher than most on Stanton last November, and that hasn't changed a bit. He already had plus power and took a good amount of walks, but this season he even cut back on strikeouts, which were really the only negative part of his game. While he may end up playing corner outfield, there's no reason to think his bat won't play there. The strikeouts are still a concern, but this isn't a Joel Guzman type we're looking at.

#3: Buster Posey, C, SF

The minors' best post-Wieters catcher is Posey, a guy who can hit for average, take a walk, hit for power, and realistically stay behind the plate. I wasn't really high on Posey going into the draft last year, but he's made me a believer with a K/BB ratio of about 1, and a .312/.412/.518 line between AA and AAA (!). He will likely see the majors before the end of the season, and is still only 22 years old.

#4: Jesus Montero, C, NYY

To quote Ron Burgundy, "Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast." The amount of attention paid to Montero this season has almost been hyperbolic. And in some respect, rightfully so, because he's had one of the best bats in the minors. However, there are still some flaws here. Firstly, while Montero's defense has improved this season, there are still significant concerns that he will end up at DH, and indeed, his defense lags behind fellow Yankee prospect Austin Romine. Secondly, he struggles to take walks, with a somewhat disappointing 7.7% BB-rate. Thirdly, he went down for the season last month after fracturing a finger in his right hand. Despite all this, he does have impressive power, and is an elite prospect as a 19-year old at AA.

#5: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF

I will probably never understand the Bumgarner critics. They say his secondary stuff is still subpar. Okay, that complain might have flown when he was breezing through low-A, but Bumgarner's at AA now, and starting pitchers don't breeze through this level with just a fastball, especially one that stays down in the mid-90s. I don't care what you say, his breaking pitches are fooling hitters. He will be fine, and is still the single best pitching prospect in the minors.

#6: Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX

I'm going to chalk up Smoak's troubles at AAA as small sample size. He's still an incredibly advanced hitting prospect, with as high a ceiling as any. I could see his absolute best case scenario, from purely a statistical perspective, as being Todd Helton in his prime. So many people make the Teixeira comparison, but I think Smoak's batting eye is better, and he might not have as much raw power as Teix did/does.

#7: Jaff Decker, OF, SD

This is going to be my boldest ranking on the list. I am absolutely mesmerized by this kid, and have been for a year now. He has a crazily unique skill set, so much so that when I was looking for a comparison for him, I could only think of two names that would maybe work. How often do you have a high school hitter with plus-plus plate discipline and plus-plus raw power, and plus-plus arm strength? He might not have great range, but that could be his only flaw. I'm thinking he's a downright frightening love child resulting from an orgy where the only attendees are Brian Giles, Lance Berkman, and Kevin Youkilis. Probably my single favorite prospect right now. I don't think it's possible to overstate his offensive potential.

#8: Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL

Last November, I ranked Tillman 8th on my Top 101. My comment on him: At 20, Tillman dominated at AA. Not "held his own", "dominated'. He has a ton of potential, and could be heading up Baltimore's rotation by the end of 2009. That's sort of pretty good. The one question mark is his control, which will hopefully come as he gets older. He noticeably cut down on his walks in August. Well, guess what? It's the end of 2009, he's joining Baltimore's rotation, and he's completely eradicated his control problems. He's solidified himself as a truly elite pitching prospect.

#9: Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL

Well, that didn't take long. Matusz was the top pitcher taken in the 2008 draft, and didn't pitch a pro inning until this season. That didn't stop him from reaching the majors this week, after a whirlwind minor league season that saw him split time between Frederick and Bowie. He was certainly as good as advertised, striking out more than a batter an inning, with good control and groundball tendencies.

#10: Carlos Santana, C, CLE

I've never been a huge fan of Santana. What he did in 2008 was, to me, suspect. Partially because of the ~.600 OPS he had put up in prior years, partially because of his age (22 in high-A), and partially because LA had thought little enough of him to ship him off for Casey Blake. That being said, the guy has not disappointed in 2009, showing he can stick behind the plate, and continuing to kick the crap out of the ball at AA. I love his K/BB ratio, but I'd like to see him challenged at AAA before the end of the year.

#11: Mat Latos, RHP, SD

It amuses me that analysts were trying to stop themselves from sounding too enthusiastic about Latos throughout this season. Every ounce of praise came with a pound of disclaimers. In the end, though, he is what he is: A very good lefty with surprisingly advanced control and nearly no mileage on his arm. While that may raise red flags for some, I'm confident in him. The Padres have rushed many a starting pitcher, but the early returns on Latos seem to indicate that he can handle it.

#12: Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA

In some respects, I'm worried about Morrison. His lack of pro data this year (due to a wrist injury) scares me, mainly because some of his stats appear to be positive outliers (BB:K). He has never really shown elite power outside of a few flashes, but if this newly acquired hyper plate discipline is for real, more consistent power will come. Taking everything into account, Morrison is one of the top first base prospects in the game, but he comes with a few more risks than Smoak or the next first basemen on this list.

#13: Nick Weglarz, OF, CLE

One of my favorite prospects in the game right now. Weglarz is a vastly underrated bat, and has been for some time now. I compared Weglarz to Jim Thome here, and I still believe in that. He's a bit like Decker, but with a worse hit tool and worse defense. His park and luck-neutralized line is .274/.419/.513. I mean, hell, look at his raw stats- the guy is OPSing .380 with a .230 average. That's just silly.

#14: Desmond Jennings, OF, TB

Coincidentally, the post that I cited in my Weglarz analysis was a comparison between he and Desmond Jennings. I said there that I didn't think that Jennings' defensive advantage would be enough to make up for Weglarz's offensive advantage. I still believe that, even if it's only a slight overall edge to Weglarz. If we neutralize Jennings' line the same way that we did with Weglarz, it's a good-but-not-great .285/.369/.437. I think Jennings will be a very good leadoff man someday soon, but I am not sold on his power potential.

#15: Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE

Here's a guy I've been high on for a couple years now. I threw him in my Top 100 last year, saying that another good year would get him Top 20 consideration. Well, here it is. He's up in AAA now, and has continued to get strikeouts, limit hits (and home runs, show plus control... He just looks very good all-around, and while he has some fly ball tendencies, he has done a great job of keeping those fly balls in the park this year. Overall, Rondon is a great bet to be an above average pitcher in the majors.

#16: Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, COL

Another guy I went big on last year, Chacin has tempered my enthusiasm about his ceiling, even if he's heightened my enthusiasm about his floor. He probably profiles best now as a middle-of-the-rotation innings eater, but that's not a bad thing in the least. He has great control to go along with extreme ground ball tendencies, and at the age of 20, was able to breeze through AA. Chacin did continue to take steps back in his strikeouts, but I don't think that will be a problem at the major league level... I am very confident that his skillset can get by without them.

#17: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT

On the one hand, Alvarez has been disappointing so far this year, as people were expecting him to come out and dominate on all fronts, and he instead came very, very slowly out of the gate. On the other hand, he's still had arguably the best full-season debut of any 2008 draftee. Strikeouts are a problem, but Alvarez has plenty of power, and takes an adequate amount of walks. There is still some chatter that he'll have to shift to first base, and while he'll be less valuable there, I think his bat could play at any position.

#18: Freddy Freeman, 1B, ATL

Like Morrison, I am extremely worried about Freeman's lack of power this season. To make matters worse, his plate discipline has taken a severe hit since being promoted to AA, and it really wasn't exceptional to begin with. I do think the power will eventually come, if only because Freeman is a lumbering 6-5, 220. However, if the walks continue to regress at AAA and the majors, I could see a Garret Anderson-esque bat as being Freeman's absolute ceiling, with Hank Blalock being a likelier outcome.

#19: Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL

I don't love Escobar's bat, but the great thing about him is that you don't have to. He is an elite defender at shortstop, and admittedly makes a lot of contact. He seems to have good baserunning instincts, going 74-for-92 over the last two seasons. If Escobar can continue to hit for average at the major league level, he could be very valuable all-around, though he may never have double-digit home run power.

#20: Daniel Hudson, RHP, CWS

I think we're going to see a ton of people going big on Hudson, and rightfully so. I've equated what Hudson has done this year to what Derek Holland did last year. He's shot up through three levels, dominating at all of them, and he's finished the year with some great numbers at AA. I don't have the same concerns with Hudson that I had with Holland last year (mainly spawned from Holland's sudden velocity gain), but I think that this is a guy who could see the same rapid increase in hype that Holland and Jordan Zimmermann received last offseason.

#21: Dominic Brown, OF, PHI

Virtually no complaints about Brown's game. While he doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well (save for defense), he is above average in just about every tool. I'm a little concerned about Brown's power, but it's come on strong this year, and he should hit for 15-20 home runs annually at the major league level. Very few prospects have improved their stocks as much as Brown has this season.

#22: Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL

If I were to break this list down, there would be a section for "Offense First" guys. And, I think that Gamel is a snug fit at third on that list behind Decker and Weglarz. He has certain issues (strikeouts, contact), and likely always will, but he has really learned how to take a walk this year. I think Gamel is as good a bet as any to be a .270 hitter with 20 home runs. I'll take that as an average year, with maybe .280/30 being a peak.

#23: Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN

The production doesn't yet meet the hype for Alonso, who is currently rehabbing a broken hamate bone. That being said, the production comes damn close. He could stand to be a little more patient, or hit a few more home runs, but he's been good so far. Not great, but good. BA says that scouts love his short swing; I am not a scout, and I merely like his stats.

#24: Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE

That felt weird to type. In his first two starts with his new organization, Carrasco put up more of the same numbers. He struck out plenty of guys, he limited his walks, and... he gave up a bunch of runs. It's been sort of an anomaly of a season for Carrasco, for whom the raw stuff has not generated raw success. But, dig deeper, and you'll find that Carrasco's K/BB is as good as ever, and his luck/park-neutralized FIP is a much gentler 3.51.

#25: Wade Davis, RHP, TB

Wade Davis has been stranded at AAA by the Tampa Bay Rays. That's not entirely fair to say, as Davis obviously has utilized the time well (making his K/BB much more attractive). It's just that he really, really looks major league ready (although a chat comment from BA's Ben Badler seems to disagree). I don't think he'll ever be as good as originally advertised (it's the control, which is still only OK), but he's a really, really good bet to be an effective mid-range starter.

Quartile Two: From Twenty-Six to Fifty

#26: Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL

Here's the rare case where a pitcher has actually improved dramatically upon promotion to the California League. Friedrich is not without his flaws, but he has blown the competition away all season after a hit-or-miss 2008. He looks like the next big strikeout phenom, and has passable control, to boot. Blisters were a concern when he was drafted last season, but Friedrich has had no problem going deep into games so far. Compared to other pitchers on this list, he has a much higher ceiling than Davis or fellow Colorado prospect Chacin, but comes with more risk, too.

#27: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM

It's well documented that I have never been a fan of F-Mart. His production has never, ever matched the hype, until this season... And even then, the hype was borderline ridiculous. He's been good at AAA, sure, but let's not forget what was originally advertised here: A legitimate power prospect in the mold of Manny Ramirez. He's taken some big steps this year, but he needs to take even more big steps to get in that sort of conversation. It's just a lot of faith in projection at this point, and I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that.

#28: Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD

I love that Blanks has continued to hit homers and draw walks, but his sudden jump in strikeouts (and it's been a really drastic jump) scares me. Despite his time in the OF this season, I still think Blanks ends up (and profiles best) at first base, where he is admittedly less valuable. There is the potential for him to hit 25-30 homers regularly, but I am worried about his sudden dip in contact ability.

#29: Tim Alderson, RHP, PIT

An impressive vital line this season has not prevented me from souring on Alderson's ceiling. He looks more like a really good back-end type than anything else. In terms of absolute ceilings, he's close to Kevin Slowey (which is not an insult, since Slowey is one of my favorite pitchers in the game, and my preseason Cy Young pick). It's just that there are far more likely, less flattering comparisons to be made.

#30: Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL

The third of Baltimore's big three pitching prospects is Arrieta. Despite a noticeably lower ceiling than Tillman or Matusz, Arrieta is still an elite pitching prospect as a relatively sure bet. He isn't absurdly young for his level (23 at AAA), but pitched very well at AA before being promoted to Norfolk. The stats have been less impressive there, but Arrieta has been serviceable, at the very least. I like him as a mid-rotation guy, with the potential to be even better if he makes some adjustments and begins inducing ground balls again.

#31: Kyle Drabek, RHP, PHI

Some people are grossly high on Drabek. I am not one of those people. He's seen sharp declines in performance since being promoted to AA, and has the much-talked about injury history. I think he's a big risk, and the reward here is not exciting enough to compensate for it. He is a good prospect, but not quite as good as everybody is hyping him up to be, I think.

#32: Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU

While not quite as dominant as Bumgarner was in 2008, Lyles has been awfully good in the Sally League this season. He has really established himself as having an ace-like ceiling... I don't completely buy his secondary pitches, and he does get hit a lot in some starts. I'd like to see how his pitches translate to higher levels. Still only 18 years old, Lyles needs to show more consistency start-to-start.

#33: Jason Castro, C, HOU

We're a little bit spoiled right now to have so many great catching prospects, and I think a lot of the time, Castro gets lost in the shuffle. Since being drafted by the Astros, many people have questioned that decision, calling it a reach. While it very well may have been, Castro has been establishing himself as a good offensive prospect in his own right since then. This season, he's earned a promotion to AA, and while his Cal League power may not have been for real, he has a good hit tool, and great plate discipline.

#34: Adrian Cardenas, IF, OAK

Since receiving tons of hype a couple years ago, Cardenas has been the subject of a lot of criticism. While he may have initially been overrated, he is still a legitimately good prospect. Maybe he can't stick at shortstop, and maybe he will never hit for power. However, Cardenas can still be an offensive-minded second baseman, and I tend to believe that his bat will play at third base, too. I like his high-contact approach, and I do believe that as he gets older, those doubles will turn into home runs (I'm thinking 15-20 annually). Remember, Cardenas is still just 21 years old, and already at AAA.

#35: Michael Saunders, OF, SEA

Saunders has received a lot of attention over the past few years for being a toolsy, athletic outfielder with consistent .800 OPS production. For some reason, nobody else paid attention to him. (I ranked him 48th last November, saying that I was "banking on BA here".) He has really come out of the gate strong this year, and other sources are finally starting to pick up on him. I think he can consistently be above average offensively, and, even though he's playing LF right now, could be very good defensively in center field.

#36: Junichi Tazawa, RHP, BOS

Not exactly an imposing pitcher, listed at 5'11", Tazawa was signed from Japan and immediately became one of the Red Sox' top 5 prospects. So far, so good. Based on this list, I'm ranking him as Boston's best prospect (which seems wrong, until you really think about it). He flat-out dominated the Eastern League before being promoted to Pawtucket for two starts. Now in Boston, Tazawa has been thrust into the spotlight, and I think he's as good a bet as any to deliver. This is a guy who many thought was major league ready last April. He's a solid bet to be a good #3 starter, with the upside of a #2.

#37: Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TB

While Hellickson has great stuff, and great control, I have trouble seeing him as a future ace. That's more of a hunch, though. He has been fearless on the mound, throwing strikes without fail and mixing up his pitches well. I do worry somewhat that his strike-throwing will backfire on him at the majors, and that his fly ball tendencies this year will cause him to get hit hard if they continue. Still, with Davis, Hellickson is the back-end of one of the best 1-2 rotation punches in the minors.

#38: Tim Beckham, SS, TB

In the aforemention Ben Badler chat, Badler said that more and more scouts were questioning Beckham's ability to stay at shortstop. Combine that with an extremely raw bat, and most of Beckham's value currently comes from projection. He strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, has almost no power, and isn't making great reads on the basepaths. From a strictly statistical perspective, there is very little to like about Beckham right now.

#39: Chris Carter, DH, OAK

Remember that "Offense first" section I mentioned a while ago? Among that group, Carter undoubtedly has the worst glove. I can't see him as anything but a DH at this point, but his bat is incredible. Finally working to cut down on his strikeouts, Carter has had one of his most impressive seasons yet. He has tons and tons of plate discipline to go along with his plus to plus-plus power, and the drop in strikeouts has actually allowed him to sustain an average above .300. There are still holes in Carter's swing (after all, he still strikes out nearly once a game), but it's hard not to be impressed with his offensive ceiling.

#40: Josh Reddick, OF, BOS

Another guy with good power and lots of strikeouts, Reddick's overall offensive profile is well-rounded. He profiles as more of a .280 hitter, but with 20-25 home runs annually, and above average speed. The glove should play very well anywhere in the outfield, though he is known more for his arm than his range. Plate discipline has never been Reddick's strong point, though he has begun to take more walks this year.

#41: Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX

I have always looked at Feliz with skepticism, and his brief time in the majors does not change that. His durability has always worried me, for the simple reason that (and this is no fault of his own) he has rarely had to face lineups at any level more than one time through. Whether it's because of Texas limiting his pitch count, or durability issues, the fact remains that Feliz only very rarely pitched through 5 innings. I have significant concerns about his secondary offerings, as well. There's a good chance he excels as a bullpen arm, but it's not like was dominant starting at AAA. I think Texas should have kept him in Frisco this season, and tried to stretch him out a little... This aggressiveness could very well backfire on them, and typecast Feliz as a setup man or closer for the foreseeable future.

#42: Martin Perez, LHP, TEX

I don't think any pitching prospect in baseball excites me the way that Perez does. This season, while the youngest pitcher in the low-A Sally League, Perez has not only excelled, but he's done so while adding a plus changeup to his repertoire. We now have a guy with three plus pitches (one of which is one of the best curveballs in the minors), and good control of all of them. And again, he's only 18! What's not to love here? I think what he's done this year can really equate to what Feliz did last year. In fact, I think Perez has an arguably higher ceiling the Feliz, even if Feliz has the higher floor (because he's pitched at higher levels).

#43: Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS

I could list Kelly as a SS, too, sure, but would it really matter? There is likely nobody left in baseball (outside of Kelly) who thinks that Kelly's future is at short. He's a pitcher, and a very good one, at that. In order to sign Kelly, though, the Red Sox had to agree to give him a chance at shortstop... Which meant moving him to the position after the Futures Game last month. This actually works out nicely for Boston- Kelly's arm gets to stay fresh, and hey, if he lights the world on fire offensively, they've got a nice problem on their hands. As a pitcher, the 19 year old was extremely good between low-A and high-A, and could force the Red Sox to test him at AA if he comes out of the gate hot in 2010.

#44: Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF, CLE

I haven't soured on LaPorta's talent as much as I've realized how good one has to be offensively to offset a lack of defensive skills. LaPorta could be valuable under the right circumstances, but he's already 25, and I have trouble seeing him max out as anything more than a .280/25 homer guy. I'd compare his overall skillset to Ryan Garko's, maybe with slightly more power.

#45: Zach McAllister, RHP, NYY

One of my favorite pitchers in the minors, McAllister has built on what was a breakout 2008 by continuing to show advanced control and good strikeout numbers. He did go down in July with what is being called a "tired arm", and that's something we should keep an eye on. However, McAllister does a lot of things well and very few things not-so-well. Surprisingly, his ground ball inducement dropped sharply this year, before picking back up in July and August.

#46: Derek Norris, C, WAS

Although he's gotten a lot of attention this year, Norris really has come on quickly. He's shown impressive power in the Sally League, to go along with advanced plate discipline. There's also a very good chance that Norris stays behind the plate... All-around, he's one of the more underrated catching prospects out there, and he could really break out next year into the Top 20.

#47: Brett Wallace, 3B, OAK

There are some questions as to whether or not Wallace can remain at third base, but a more pressing concern is where his power has gone. Despite spending about 70% of his season in one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in baseball, Wallace has a .418 SLG this season. Even worse, his plate discipline has slipped dramatically since being promoted to AAA. Strikeouts have always been a concern for Wallace, but now, he's stopped walking as well. There are a lot of questions for him to answer as this season comes to a close, although he could still open 2010 in Oakland with a good Spring Training.

#48: Aaron Cunningham, OF, OAK

As I've said in the past, Cunningham does a lot of things well, but nothing exceptionally well. He can hit for average, has some power, can take a walk, and has some speed, but he's not going to wow you with any of those skills. Still, though, a consistently above-average outfielder has value, and I think that the sum of Cunningham's parts are valuable.

#49: Casey Crosby, LHP, DET

Sure, Crosby is 21 years old, at low-A, and has an injury history (elbow reconstruction). However, he's also a lefty with exceptional stuff and crazy good results this season. The Midwest League is good to pitchers, but Crosby has been more than just good. He has a 112/44 K/BB in 96.2 innings, and significant ground ball tendencies. Every time I look at his stats, I fall in love a little more. He deserves to be mentioned among the other low-A arms on this list.

#50: James Darnell, 3B, SD

Yes, Darnell is slightly old for his league, at 22 and splitting the season between low-A and high-A. Yes, a third of Darnell's season has been spent in the California League, notorious for making hitters look better than they actually are. All things considered, though, it's awfully hard to argue with Darnell's success. He's not merely beating the crap out of the ball; he has shown exceptional contact ability, and a really advanced approach (75 BBs, 76 Ks). He's a big part of why I think the Padres' 2008 draft was so successful.

Quartile Three: From Fifty-One to Seventy-Five

#51: Matt Moore, LHP, TB

The pitchers keep coming with Moore, a 20 year old at low-A with impressive strikeout and hit rates. He could stand to work on his control (58 BBs in 100.2 innings), but there is reason to believe that he'll be able to refine that as he moves through the Rays' system. After all, Moore did limit his walks in 2008, when he gave up 19 in 54 innings. Plus, he has done a good job improving his control as the year has gone on. He has a very nice ceiling as a potential lefty ace, though he is still far away.

#52: Jarrod Parker, RHP, AZ

For those of you wondering where I would slot Parker on this list, here's your answer. I'm sure I'll take some flak for this ranking, but it's an opportunity for me to gloat about being right last winter, when I said that I was worried about Parker's durability. There are now significant injury concerns with him, and the stats were not really that impressive to begin with. He gives up a lot of hits, and while his control and FB/GB ratio looks good, it's not enough to offset the risk and push him into the next tier of pitching prospects.

#53: Jason Knapp, RHP, PHI

Knapp's stats in the Sally League aren't sexy, but he doesn't turn 19 for another couple weeks, and put up very flattering strikeout totals. Here are the issues with him: First off, the control. He gave up nearly one walk every two innings this season, and that number did not really improve as the year progressed. Secondly, note my persistent use of the past tense; the Phillies shut Knapp down for the season last month because of shoulder fatigue.

#54: Ethan Martin, RHP, LAD

It's easy to forget about Martin, the Dodgers' first round pick last year who is, like Moore, a 20 year old at low-A. However, Martin's peripheral stats are just as impressive at Moore's, as the righty has racked up an impressive strikeout total, but still needs to refine his control. The walks are a bigger concern for Martin, as this is his debut pro season, and he has no history of positive control in which to take solace. However, the stuff is here, and he has as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect out there.

#55: Scott Sizemore, 2B, DET

One of my bolder rankings this season, Sizemore has not only solidified himself as Detroit's second baseman of the future, but he's also made a spot for himself as the best second base prospect in all of baseball. Sure, it's a thin position right now for prospects, but how can you not love a guy who has refined the other parts of his game after already having scarily good plate discipline? Between AA and AAA, the 24 year old has a .307/.394/.505 line, with 14 homers and 15 steals. Even better, Sizemore has worked on has defense this year and has reportedly taken big strides there. I love him as an offensive-minded second baseman, perhaps with vintage Marcus Giles as his ceiling.

#56: Michael Taylor, OF, PHI

I think the thing that has kept me from moving Taylor into the next tier of outfield prospects is the fact that he really has put up similar numbers to most of them, but is a year or two older in most cases. Taylor looks good, but he hasn't impressed at AAA, and is nearly 24. This might sound hypocritical after my gushing over Sizemore, but Taylor plays a much less exclusive position, and is getting a lot more hype.

#57: Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC

I have a feeling that if people want to criticize this list, they'll use this ranking (well, this or Mejia's ranking, which is yet to appear) to do it. "WHAT? SCOTT SIZEMORE ABOVE VITTERS? LOL, KTHX" Well, yeah, that's what I'm saying, and I'll stick by it. Vitters has 9 walks in 93 games. Think about that for a second. Angel-fuckin'-Villalona (who does not appear on this list) has 9 walks in 74 games! Obviously, Vitters has quite a few more positives than Villalona does, or else he wouldn't appear on the list, either. But unless Vitters adds ANY plate discipline to his plus-plus raw power, I can't see him having success at higher levels.

#58: Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE

Chisenhall has shot up a lot of peoples' radars this year, and rightfully so. Still just 20 years old, he's demonstrated plus power, and good contact abilities, while moving from shortstop to third base. He should be able to stick at third. His worst attribute is probably his mediocre plate discipline, as Chisenhall has only a .345 OBP on the season. I'm excited to see what he can do now that he's at AA Akron.

#59: Jennry Mejia, RHP, NYM

I'm a little more hesitant to jump on the Mejia bandwagon that most people. He's been very good, sure, but we're still looking at an extremely small sample size, and Mejia is now injured. It's a little troubling, even though I love his ground ball rate. I don't really understand why people salivate over Mejia's time at AA. They keep saying things like, "Look, he's further along than (prospect X)! He's at AA!" Great, but he only made 4 starts there, he wasn't great there, and he's now on the disabled list. His time at AA is irrelevant; Mejia is still a high-risk, high-reward pitcher.

#60: Jon Niese, LHP, NYM

As high-percentage bets go, Niese is a great one. The lefty has been very good at AAA since first being tested there last season. He's seen some time in New York already, and is a great bet to at least succeed as a back-end rotation type. Obviously, Niese doesn't have a real high ceiling, but he's certainly close to reaching his.

#61: Brad Lincoln, LHP, PIT

He may no longer be considered a future ace, but Lincoln still is a very good prospect, due mostly to his suburb control. Now at AAA, Lincoln has given up only 44 walks in 219 innings over the past two seasons. He gives up a lot of hits, which is a concern, but it hasn't really hurt him much so far. Lincoln does a decent job of getting strikeouts, too... It should be interesting to see if the Pirates will start him with the team next spring.

#62: Lance Lynn, RHP, STL

Often overlooked and underrated, Lynn is an imposing 6'5", 250, with excellent stats this season at AA. He's 22 years old, and the Cardinals challenged him the season by pushing him past high-A after just 15 innings there. Lynn has responded well, walking only 38 in 119.1 innings overall this year. All of his other peripheral stats are good-but-not-great, which keeps him from being in an upper tier of pitchers. However, his physical frame combined with the plus control, and good complementary stats, all lead to him being a top pitching prospect.

#63: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS

I really want to like Lars, being a Boston fan and all. For the first half of this season, we could at least make excuses for the guy, but at this point, it's tough to spin his numbers positively. He has a .696 OPS this year, with just 8 home runs and 100 strikeouts in 98 games. The one positive to his line is his walks (51), but without power or contact ability, it's a fairly empty positive. Lars is still just 21, though, and maybe the promotion to AA was a little aggressive. I'm sure that if he were in high-A right now, he'd put numbers that would prompt most people to bump him into the top 20.

#64: Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL

A 19 year old converted catcher, Lawrie has spent this season at second base, and is one of the better prospects in the game at that position. He has flashed plus power there, to go along with some speed and an advanced hitting approach. Lawrie's lack of contact ability worries me, though, and brings to mind what Moustakas accomplished at the Midwest League just one season ago. I hope that Lawrie has just been unlucky, and his batting average begins to rise.

#65: Jose Tabata, OF, PIT

This ranking probably doesn't let on exactly how much I like Tabata. I'm still cautious with him, as anybody should be, but Tabata has completely switched up his approach this year. He's walking at about the same rate as last year, but has cut his strikeouts in half (!), and has managed to sustain a batting average over .300 for most of the season. While there has been a distinct lack of power to Tabata's line, that's okay; this is the first real success that Tabata has enjoyed for a couple years now, and he's at AAA now. That's right: Jose Tabata, prospect for as long as I can remember, is finally going to be a major leaguer shortly.

#66: Brandon Erbe, RHP, BAL

Like Tabata, it seems as if Erbe has been around forever. The 21 year old is now at AA, and seems to be doing a fairly good job there. Control is still a minor issue for him, but it's nothing he can't overcome... More worrisome are the homer totals (combined with his fly ball tendencies). Erbe has given up 28 home runs in 212 innings over the past two seasons. He's cut down on the rate some this season, but it's still a scary total.

#67: Josh Donaldson, C, OAK

When Donaldson was traded from the Cubs to the Athletics last summer, he was touted as Oakland's catcher for the future. Upon his arrival in the system, he delivered, putting up an OPS well over .900 (granted, as a 22 year old in the CAL League). This season, Donaldson has continued his transformation into a mature hitter at AA. While he is still not really young for his league, the catcher has a BB/K ratio of just under 1. While he hasn't shown much power so far this year, the really impressive thing is just how much Donaldson has transformed his approach. Again, in 2008, he had a 70 strikeouts and 34 walks. This season? His 73 strikeouts are accompanied by an impressive 70 walks. Defensively, Donaldson is still learning, but he has a good arm, and enough athleticism to believe that he can stick behind the plate.

#68: Tyler Flowers, C, CWS

Comparing Donaldson to Flowers, however, is not easy. The latter is a year younger, has better offensive statistics, is at a higher level, but... may not stick behind the plate. There have always been questions about his arm, as well as his receiving, and when in Atlanta, the predominant idea was that he'd end up at first base. In Chicago, he essentially has one more season to improve his defense before the team has to make a decision on him; that's when current catcher A.J. Pierzynski's contract ends.

#69: Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS

I have tried to explain to Red Sox fans for the past year or so now that we should really temper our excitement about Bowden. It's not that he's not a good prospect (he is), but he has never had great stuff, and profiles more as a back of the rotation guy. That's not news to most people here, but Bowden has still had a lot of success at AAA this season. His control has slipped this year, but he still exhibits a lot of skill in that area. His flyball tendencies worry me, as does the sudden increase in home runs.

#70: Michael Montgomery, LHP, KC

This is the kind of pitcher that I really love. Montgomery is a lefty who is young for his level (20 years old), who is being pushed aggressively (now at high-A), who is getting extreme ground ball rates (2.74 GB/FB last year, 1.63 this year), and who is showing off plus stuff (101 Ks in 116.2 innings, .210 BAA). What's not to love? He still needs to work on his control, but he's got plenty of time to do that. Right now, Montgomery's ceiling is that of a lefty ace.

#71: Bradley Holt, RHP, NYM

Holt worries me a little bit. He has looked very good since being drafted last season, but upon promotion to AA this year, Holt has taken huge, drastic steps backward. His control has slipped dramatically, his K's have slipped dramatically, his hits have climbed dramatically, and he's given up dramatically more fly balls. Notice a trend here? We're dealing with a small sample size- it's only 10 starts, after all- but Holt needs to make adjustments, and he needs to do it soon.

#72: Kasey Kiker, LHP, TEX

I've been looking at Kiker's stats for about a week now. Every time I look, I'm impressed, but I tell myself, "Well, he's still a 21 year old at low-A." And then it hits me: Kiker is at AA, and has been there all season. The most impressive part of his stat line is that, despite the aggressive promotion and adjustments he's had to make, Kiker has improved in just about every way possible this year. Maybe last season's struggles were just a result of the CAL League, I don't know, but he's been putting teams away with regularity at the neutral Texas League. I'd like to see how he handles AAA later this season, though it's more likely that he receives the promotion next year.

#73: Austin Jackson, OF, NYY

I've argued this plenty of times before. If you want to see my Jackson argument, look for three paragraph rant I had about him in last November's list (with pretty charts included!). He's good, not great, and most of his value prior to this season came from exactly three good months. Literally all of the rest of Jackson's career has been mediocre. He has been overhyped, has an empty batting average, poor strike-zone judgment, and really very little power to speak of. If he ever gets a starting job, I would bet heavily on him disappointing with it.

#74: Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC

Yes, Moustakas is just 20 years old in high-A, but the truth is that he really has not made a single improvement to his shortcomings from last season's stats. He still has plus power, fine, but the strikeout and walk rates have not improved at all, and his ability to make contact has gotten worse. In fact, over the course of this season, Moustakas has actually gotten worse in every month. I want to see some sort of improvement, specifically with respect to his plate discipline, before ranking him any higher.

#75: Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHC

Cubs fans will likely have a problem with this ranking, and it is admittedly conservative. However, while Cashner has done a good job eradicating his control problems from 2008, he still has major hiccups every couple starts. There is very little consistency here, and he's really had success in a small sample size. I like the ground ball tendencies, but he needs to show more consistent control. There is still a very high ceiling if Cashner can figure it out... He is only 22 years old at AA right now, so there is time.

Quartile Three: From Seventy-Six to One Hundred

#76: Ryan Westmoreland, OF, BOS

It's hard to believe, but it wasn't until very late in this list's creation process that I decided to add Westmoreland. I am as excited about him as any Boston fan, and he is, after all, my single favorite prospect in the game. That being said, though, I've tried my best to be realistic with him. He's still raw, still at short-season Lowell, and still hasn't played a game in the field. Also, it should be noted that he was not highly ranked (generally right around #100) in last year's draft class. Westmoreland is, however, a true 5-tool talent, with an advanced approach at the plate, and he's enjoyed immediate success in the New York-Penn League. All the reports point to him being a legitimate top prospect.

#77: Carlos Triunfel, SS, SEA

Triunfel hasn't played this season, save for two games back in April before breaking his tibia. Before that, he was considered a very good, but very raw, shortstop prospect. I've never really been high on him, because his production has never really warranted it. The broken tibia only adds more questions. Will he be able to run as well upon returning? Will he be able to stick at shortstop, something that was in question even before the injury? I've moved him way down on the list because of this uncertainty, although the high ceiling stopped me from removing him completely.

#78: Nick Barnese, RHP, TB

Chalk up another Top 100 pitching prospect for Tampa Bay. Barnese has enjoyed success whenever he's pitched since coming into the league, but he still hasn't had a season over 80 innings, and it's doubtful that this season will be his first. I'm hesitant to move him higher before seeing how he can handle a full year, but the early returns have been impressive. I'm curious to see whether the Rays move him up to high-A in 2010, or leave him to spend a full season at low-A.

#79: Tim Melville, RHP, KC

I think an interesting argument could be had regarding who the better prospect is between Barnese and Melville. While Barnese clearly has an early performance edge, Melville has been much more highly regarded since being drafted last season. Melville's line is not overly impressive, but the scouting reports are glowing, and his stats are still good enough to keep him in elite pitching prospect conversations.

#80: Ike Davis, 1B, NYM

Here's another guy for whom it took me a long time to add to the list. In Davis' case, it was his July that really pushed him into top prospect consideration. That month was his first full one at AA, after spending the first half of the season at high-A. The Mets were right to challenge the 22 year old, as he has since gone .296/.377/.525 at Binghamton. Davis is still clearly in the second tier of last year's elite draft class of first base prospects, but his stock is rising quickly now.

#81: Thomas Neal, OF, SF

Neal is one of those players who, whenever I've been tinkering with the list, I move down a few more spots. He started in the 60 range, but every time I look at him, I'm less impressed. He's a 21 year old outfielder, who has mashed in the CAL League, who has been a little lucky, and who in past seasons has never been more than a .800 OPS type. I tend to believe that if he were even in the FSL or Carolina League, things would be a lot different, and more people would have a legitimately tough time choosing between him and the next guy on this list.

#82: Christopher Marrero, 1B, WAS

Marrero has been extremely highly touted since being drafted in the first round in 2006. He was probably overrated after his stellar 2007, and probably underrated after his subpar 2008. Now, I think a lot of people have just forgotten about him, but he has repeated the Carolina League this year, with great success. I still have some concerns about his strike zone judgment, but Marrero's power has never left him, and I think he could one day be valuable as a .270/20 homer guy. Maybe something like the terminally underrated Josh Willingham?

#83: Logan Forsythe, 3B, SD

I was originally very high on Forsythe (I had him in the 50 range, around Neal), but concerns about his Texas League slippage have caused me to temper that enthusiasm. He's 22 years old, and much of his success came from the CAL League. However, and this is important to remember, Forsythe has exhibited some of the best plate discipline in any professional baseball league this year. His 61/48 BB/K ratio at high-A is just incredible, and while it's slipped since his promotion to AA, this is the type of player that Forsythe is. He doesn't have much power, but a dual-.400 OPS is well within reach.

#84: Chris Withrow, RHP, LAD

On the surface, Withrow's 2009 has been unimpressive. With a 4.85 ERA, and 50 walks in 94.2 innings, there is plenty of cause for alarm. However, Withrow has also racked up 112 strikeouts this year, and really limited his hits. Most impressive may have been the lack of home runs he's given up, as prior to his AA debut (in which he gave up 2), Withrow had only given up 3 all year. He may never be successful without better control, but he is currently being tested at AA, and it should be interesting to see how he adjusts.

#85: Julio Borbon, OF, TEX

Borbon has teased us so far this season. After exhibiting surprisingly good plate discipline last fall in the AFL, he did indeed improve both his strikeout and walk rates this season. However, it came at the cost of his power, as the 41 extra-base hits he had last year have been cut in half, and his SLG has dropped to .386. Now in Texas, Borbon has exhibited that his future is still that of a very good leadoff man, but he'll need to get his power back at some point. As a speedy outfielder with good ability to hit for average and take a walk, though, he has value.

#86: Esmil Rogers, RHP, COL

Nearly 24 years old, Rogers is a very interesting prospect. He was good last year at the CAL League, but his real breakout has occured this season in AA Tulsa. Rogers flashed plus command and control, with a 83/19 K/BB over 94.1 innings. Based on his time with Tulsa alone, he would be one of the best pitching prospects in the game (if a little old for his level). However, Rogers has completely imploded since being promoted to AAA Colorado Springs. It's an extreme hitters league, fine, but Rogers H/9 has nearly doubled, while his BB/9 has nearly tripled. It all makes me wonder if the 19 starts he had at AA were flukish, because Rogers has pitched effectively in extreme hitters leagues before (the aforemented CAL League). Let's see how he pitches in 2010 before passing a judgment on him.

#87: Josh Lindblom, RHP, LAD

Lindblom has been very successful since he was drafted last year. Rising quickly through the Dodgers' system (he's now at AAA), Lindblom has a 103/28 K/BB in 108 professional innings. There are very few people questioning his production, but there are questions as to what the future holds for him. Many scouts thought that he was destined for relief before the draft, and he's since been moved to the bullpen at AAA Albuquerque. Regardless of where he pitches, Lindblom should be successful, and he has a high floor. However, the lack of a high ceiling as a starter makes him slightly less appealing than other pitching prospects.

#88: Trevor Reckling, LHP, LAA

On the surface, one could say that Reckling has been very good in 2009. He's a lefty with good ground ball tendencies, a passable strikeout rate, and a sparkling ERA. Digging deeper, though, it's easy to feel uneasy about him. The strikeout rate is a lot more mediocre when you take away his three starts at high-A, and Reckling has walked 61 in 114 innings. He is still just 20 years old, however, and already at AA. There is plenty of time for him to refine his control. Until he does so, he is distinctly on the back end of this list.

#89: Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK

The small sample size worries me a bit, but it doesn't change the fact that Weeks has shown very advanced plate discipline since being drafted 12th overall last year. His career BB/K is now 41/54, and Weeks has shown surprising power (though much of it came as a 22 year old at CAL). I suppose I could equate him with Forsythe at this point, but the latter was simply more impressive for a longer period of time this year.

#90: Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF, MIN

Here's a name I think few people probably expected. I'm using Davis and Marrero as comparables for Parmelee, one of my favorite sleepers in the game. He has always had both plus plate discipline and plus power, with contact ability coming into question. I'll chalk that up to being unlucky, as he's had some pretty wild BA fluctuations throughout his career. It might seem like he's been around forever now, but, like Marrero, Parmelee is still just 21 years old at high-A. I think he's a big breakout candidate for AA next season.

#91: Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM

I don't know why it surprised me, but when the Mets started Flores (17 years old until last week) at full-season low-A, I was shocked. The Mets have always been boneheaded about these sort of prospect promotions, though, and Flores predictably has struggled. I have to wonder how good he would be if he were at short-season A, and part of me thinks he'd be the NYPL's best prospect. The approach at the plate (18 walks in 100 games) scares me, but he has sky-high potential that he should show if the Mets ever decide to assign him to an age-appropriate league.

#92: Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL

The way the Teheran has been hyped since signing with the Braves two years ago, you'd think the kid was at AAA with a 0.00 ERA. Instead, he just made his 14th start last week, and his first at the low-A South Atlantic League. I'm not sure that his stats really mean anything at this point, but they have been admittedly impressive (64/12 K/BB in 63.2 innings) thus far. He is still just 18 years old, and is a huge, huge breakout candidate if the Braves decide to start him at full-season ball in 2010 (which they most likely will).

#93: Angel Salome, C, MIL

After all but lighting the world on first offensively last season, Salome has taken a major step back this year. His plate discipline (which wasn't great to begin with) has all but abandoned him, and he hasn't shown any power in the hitter-friendly PCL. You could chalk it up to Salome trying to focus on catching, something that he needed to really progress with this year. I honestly have know idea if his catching skills have gotten any better, but they'll have to or be traded, because he will not fit at another position for Milwaukee.

#94: Reid Brignac, SS, TB

Brignac has spent the last two seasons at AAA Durham, and I can't help but wonder why the Rays haven't tested him at the major league level. Yes, he was underwhelming in 2008, but he still showed flashes of potential last year, and has been excellent once again this year. He's more of a good-but-not-great type of player, as I don't really ever see him having anything more than average power and plate discipline, but he could still be a competent MLB starting SS.

#95: Aaron Hicks, OF, MIN

This ranking probably doesn't really let on exactly how much I like Hicks. He's another one of my favorite prospects in the game. One of my favorite prospect tidbits is this: Of all the 700+ position players featured in this year's Minor League Analyst, only 2 players were listed as having plus tools across the board. The first was Colby Rasmus; I'll assume that you can guess at this point who the second player is.

#96: Danny Duffy, RHP, KC

It's easy to forget about Duffy. The 21 year old pitched a very quiet, but very effective, season at high-A this year. While he hasn't been quite as effective as he was at low-A in 2008, Duffy has still combined above average control with strikeouts and a good opposing batting average. He's on track to start 2010 at AA, and could move quickly up this list with a good year there.

#97: Tyson Gillies, OF, SEA

Loyal readers will remember my persistent comparison of Julio Borbon and Jacoby Ellsbury (sans walks). Well, in Gillies, we have a player that, at least from a statistical perspective, compares even more closely. Gillies walks plenty, and has plus contact and speed to go along with it. Hell, he's even added some power this season, though a lot of that probably has to do with the hitting environment at High Desert. Still, though, Gillies is a good bet to have dual-.400 percentages, to go along with good speed and defense. He could really shoot up into the top half of the list if he follows up with a similar year at AA.

#98: Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC

I didn't feel comfortable dropping Hosmer down this far, but I also feel completely comfortable including him in the list at all. He's been very, very disappointing this year, showing very little success outside of advanced plate discipline, though he came on stronger as the season went on. The Royals inexplicably challenged him with a promotion last month, and he has predictably struggled mightily. I want to see him repeat high-A in 2010, and maybe get some statistical production behind him.

#99: Wilmer Font, RHP, TEX

Another teenage pitcher at low-A, Font had a quiet 2009. He delivered on the promise of plus stuff, with 84 strikeouts in 81 innings, but his control is a bit raw (43 walks). Font may be Texas' next big young pitching prospect, to follow Feliz and Perez. He's been under the radar in the organization for a year or two now, but he could break out in a big way in 2010. (I should note that this spot was essentially split between Font and Blake Beavan.)

#100: Ben Revere, OF, MIN

Revere has a fairly crazy skill set. He has some of the best strikeout avoidance skills that I've ever seen, and he really capitalizes on his high-contact approach by hitting for average. There is extremely little power in Revere's game, so little that I would doubt he ever sees double digit home run totals. He could stand to make better reads on the basepaths, but that's something I imagine he'll progress with as he moves through the Twins' system.

Summary of the List

So, there you have it. There are, I'm sure some names that I missed, and I'm sure that this will spark a lot of discussion. I'd like to think that I've been fairly open and thorough as to what my goals are with this list, and why I ranked prospects the way I did. I tried my best to explain how I went through the ranking process, too.

I assume that some people are wondering who the next few "Just Missed" guys were. There are, in alphabetical order: Blake Beavan, Mike Carp, Hank Conger, Daniel Descalso, Brett DeVall, Dee Gordon, Will Smith, Matthew Sweeney, Arodys Vizcaino, and Michael Ynoa.

Anyway, I've really enjoyed this whole process. It's taken me about a week and a half now, and while, once again, it is intended for my personal use, I hope you can all enjoy it and take something away from it. Thanks for reading!

Under the Radar: Tommy Mendoza

RedSoxFaithful — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:47:56 -0000

After talking last time about Yankees pitcher D.J. Mitchell, I've decided to continue this series with a profile on Angels righty Tommy Mendoza.

Mendoza's Background

The Angels drafted Mendoza in the 4th round in 2005, and Baseball America rated him as the #10 prospect in the system prior to both 2006 and 2007. Sickels, meanwhile, rated him 7th and 9th in the system, with grades B and C+, respectively. This was all a response to the great success he had since being drafted, with an 8.67 K/9 and a 1.74 BB/9 over the two seasons. However, Mendoza took major steps back in 2007, as he was hit far more often, and saw a steep decline in his strikeouts. He dropped almost completely off the radar, not making John's 2008 Angels' list. And, last season, there were even more setbacks for the pitcher, with a Noah Lowry-esque 50/39 K/BB in 110 innings. Still, though, Mendoza had just completed a season at one of the toughest parks in baseball (high-A Rancho Cucamonga), and was still just 21 going into 2009.

Typecasting Mendoza

Before we talk about Mendoza's 2009 line, let's look at the type of pitcher that he is. He primarily throws three pitches: an 89-94 MPH fastball, an average- if inconsistent- curveball, and a changeup. He has multiple different looks to his fastball- Baseball America said in multiple reports that Mendoza knows when to add and remove velocity from it, and could also cut it or throw a two-seamer when needed. Lastly, Mendoza tends to be a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher, but has for the most part done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. I usually tend to take interest in strike-throwing ground ball pitchers, but Mendoza may be even more interesting as a fly ball pitcher with very good control.

I've thought for a good amount of time about a comparison for Mendoza, and I think he profiles as a righty version of Jarrod Washburn. Washburn has similar fastball velocity, a similar secondary arsenal (slider/change), and has a diverse arsenal of fastballs, like Mendoza. He's also a flyball pitcher that struggles to get K's (but has good control), and is even the same height/weight as our young Angels prospect. I think Washburn is an excellent best-case scenario here, and at the age of 21, Mendoza has plenty of time to reach that potential if LA decides that he needs to repeat AA or AAA.

The Mendoza Line in 2009

If I had to pick one prospect that has really, truly impressed and surprised me this season, it would be Mendoza. His 2009 has been exceptional... The Angels aggressively started him at AA (even though he had struggled somewhat at high-A), and he has more than answered the call. Although his K/9 is still unspectacular (6.0), Mendoza has further refined his control, and his H/9 has dropped to its lowest level since 2006. With good surface stats (3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), it's hard to explain why he's not getting attention this season, even if his ceiling is only that of a back-end starter.

What to Expect Going Forward

Mendoza is not a shiny prospect. He's been around forever, but is still just 21 years old. He's gotten attention before, and he's gone way downhill after receiving it. However, he looks like as good a bet as any right now, and has been consistently good at AA through the season. I can't see the Angels pushing him to AAA this season, but he should start there next year. If he continues to put up these types of numbers, the Angels may need him sometime in 2010. It doesn't seem like LA will have a tough rotation to crack, and an injury or two could force their hand with Mendoza.

Matt Wieters and Strikeouts

RedSoxFaithful — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:26:18 -0000

Matt Wieters has been an impressive player. He was pretty much the uncontested top prospect before the season (and deservedly so). Much of that had to do with his asskicking at AA (.365/.460/.625, 38/29 BB/K). He was pretty good, in other words, and the consensus was that he was going to be a very very good major league player for a very very long time.

Now, this is not a panic post (nor should it be, as Wieters is doing fine in the majors right now), but I'd like to look into his stats at the advanced levels a little more. First, his jump up to AAA this year worries me a bit. He saw opposite (and negative) changes in both BB% and K%, as both moved to career extremes. It wasn't really a problem, though, since his overall line at AAA was still .305/.387/.504, and the discipline could be written off as SSS. It should be noted that his other peripheral stats (such as LD%) improved at AAA, so again... This is not a panic post.

Here's the thing, though. The discipline stats took another big hit after being promoted to the majors. He's striking out nearly once a game, at a career-high 22.8% clip. He's stopped taking walks, too, with a career-low 7.3% rate. And, this time, his line seems to be affected, currently at .267/.321/.416. Wieters' luck stats seem to be normal, with a BABIP of exactly .320 and good GB/FB/LD splits.

My question is this: Since Wieters has been bothered by high strikeout totals at all levels except for AA, is it possible that the lack of strikeouts at AA was a fluke, and what we're seeing now is a result of a lack of plate discipline? I should again emphasize that I am not worried about Wieters long term; I still think he will be an effective major league catcher. But is the declining plate discipline something we should keep an eye on, and if so, how will it affect his long-term development?

Under the Radar: D.J. Mitchell

RedSoxFaithful — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:42:22 -0000

I did a couple of these a while back, and they were fun, so I figured I'd do it again. The point of these pieces is to expose those prospects that do not get much mainstream exposure, but deserve it. Today we're going to talk about Yankees pitcher D.J. Mitchell, currently with high-A Tampa.

Mitchell was largely unranked before this season, his first as a professional. However, drafted in the 10th round by the Yankees, and signed for well above slot at $450,000, Mitchell came with a good amount of fanfare last June. He is actually fairly new to pitching, having been recruited by Clemson as a position player. In 31 appearances for the Tigers (21 starts), Mitchell was 11-5 with a 3.40 ERA and 155/56 K/BB in 151 innings. Baseball America had the following to say about him when they ranked him #155 on their 2008 Draft Top 200 (link is subscriber-only):

Recruited as an outfielder, Mitchell didn't pitch at all his freshman year at Clemson. A career .241 hitter in college, he split time between hitting and pitching last season and found more success on the mound, tallying a 5-0, 3.27 record in 15 appearances. Following his sophomore season, he led the Cape Cod League with 58 strikeouts, including one 15-strikeout performance, and had a 1.47 ERA in eight starts. He has been Clemson's Friday night starter this spring, providing stability on a young staff. Athletic on the mound, Mitchell has long, wiry arms and legs. His fastball comes in between 89-91 mph, but with above-average movement. He creates natural sink and tail from his loose three-quarters arm slot. He complements his fastball with a sweeping slider and changeup. Mitchell is 6-feet, 170 pounds and has room to add more weight. Due to his size, durability is a question mark, but his live body and limited pitching experience intrigue scouts. He'll likely end up in the bullpen at the professional level.

If this scouting report sounds familiar, it's because it's a lot like the one BA wrote up for Jess Todd prior to the 2007 draft. Mitchell draws a lot of comparisons to him. Both were college pitchers with predominantly a fastball-slider combo (though Todd's fastball is slightly faster), and both have been knocked for their size. And, there's always the fact that both pitchers had awesome debuts.

Before I continue talking about Mitchell's 2009, and making some more comparisons, I'd first like to mention that Mitchell did get some love from BA before the season. They ranked him 24th in the Yankees system, saying that he's incredibly athletic, and that he "could struggle initially in pro ball, but his potential is obvious". BA also said that he could have three solid-to-plus pitches when all is said and done, and that his changeup (potentially a plus) is the key to remaining a starter. John and other sources (such as Deric McKaney) left Mitchell out of Yankee top prospect lists, though he was an honorable mention for John.

Anyway, while Todd reached AAA in his first full professional season, the Yankees are taking a (slightly) more patient role with Mitchell. Starting the season at single-A Charleston, Mitchell got off to a crazy-good start, racking up a 29.0% K/PA, 4.1% BB/PA, and a 2.07 FIP. It didn't hurt that he was also prompting grounders at a cool 60% rate. The Yankees promoted him aggressively to high-A Tampa after his 6th start with Charleston. While his ERA has taken a hit in the promotion, his peripherals are sparkling. Mitchell's still maintaining a 24.8% K/PA to go along with a 9.7% BB/PA, and he's actually increased his groundball ratio, to 63%. Based just on his pure numbers, he's really bringing fellow Yankees prospect Zach McAllister to mind for me, as a GB-minded pitcher with very good strikeout rates and good control. Also like McAllister, I think Mitchell is criminally underrated.

So, with all this in mind, what do we think about Mitchell? Does his size have him destined for the Yankees bullpen? Is it all dependent on his changeup? Does he deserve more attention, and if so, why isn't he receiving it? To me, he's got to be a top-5 prospect for the Yankees right now, even counting new draftees Slade Heathcott and J.R. Murphy. There's no way Brackman's ahead of him at this point, and he's definitely in the conversation with Betances and Romine, IMO.

Falling Stars: What to make of Brian Dopirak

RedSoxFaithful — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:50:21 -0000

Once upon a time, the Chicago Cubs drafted a powerful first baseman, with a 2nd round draft pick, who promptly went to single-A Lansing and had a crazy-good season. The first baseman was lauded from every direction for his efforts, and was named the best prospect in Chicago's system, as well as the 21st best prospect in baseball, by one of the most reputable sources around.

It was what happened next, though, that was the most surprising twist of them all: Brian Dopirak fell off a figurative cliff. He posted an OPS of .670 at high-A in 2005, and fell victim to injuries in 2006 and 2007. By the time Dopirak would post another healthy season, it would be 2008, in his second organization, at the age of 24, and yet only in high-A.

Of course, most of you probably already knew all of this, so where am I going with it? Well, Dopirak is now 25, and has finally made the all-important jump to AA (which he is mastering quickly). With a .946 OPS, and 16 home runs, he's definitely begging for a promotion to AAA. My question is this: Does it matter? At what point does age relative to league actually mean something?

Obviously, his power is slightly less impressive, because he's 25, but it's pretty clear that Dopirak does have real power, regardless of the age discrepancy. He's also walking a decent amount, in the 9-10% range (despite still striking out too much). Plus, it's not like this is him repeating the league- he only had about 300 scattered at-bats at AA before this season. I really think, if they challenged him, the Blue Jays could find themselves pleasantly surprised here. It's not like they really have much in the way at 1B, anyway (both at the MLB level and in the minors, aside from David Cooper).

What do you think? Can Dopirak still power himself into a major league lineup, or are we merely witnessing a one-time prospect's last stand?

MOD: Angels Draft Review

RedSoxFaithful — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 19:55:09 -0000

With one of the busier drafts today (7 picks), I think I did very well with the Angels. I'm very pleased by how the overall picture turned out. Let's break down each pick here.

Pick #24: James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky

I've been looking into Paxton all along. Some are higher on him than others, as Keith Law had him at #3 on his old top 100 (and at #8 on his new one), while BA has him at #37. I don't put much stock into Paxton's ERA (5.86). He has excellent command (115/20 K/BB). Law rated his fastball (55/60) and curveball (60/60) very highly, and I trust that. The signability concerns are definitely deserved, as Paxton is a Boras client, but I don't think he's got that much leverage because of his lack of production.

Pick #25: Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa (Calif.) HS

I really believe in Davidson's bat, and the Angels could use a homegrown positional player that will actually hit. Once again, Law was higher on Davidson than BA. Law really likes Davidson's hit (45/60), power (40/55), and plate discipline (40/55) tools, and called him "about as high-probability a prep bat as you'll find". It's okay if he has to move off of third base, too- the Angels could play him at first just as easily. He was rated #15 overall by Law, and #42 by BA.

Pick #40: Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M

Of all my picks, this is the one I was least pleased with. I didn't realize I was on the clock, and rushed to select Wilson. That being said, I do believe in him... He has had great control at for the Aggies (105/18 K/BB), and the fact that he did that in his first season back from TJS is awesome. I'm very interested to see what he does as he further recovers. He needs to add a third pitch to prevent ending up as a reliever, but I guess the Angels could use him either way.

Pick #42: Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin (S.C.) HS

Younginer really fit for me here. While he was used only as a closer in high school, I believe that his ceiling is that of a #1 starter. Because I had taken Paxton, Davidson, and Wilson with my first three picks, I was looking for a relatively more signable pitcher here. While Younginer is still a prep pitcher, the fact that he was only used as a closer means that he has limited leverage. The ceiling here is extremely high, as long as he can keep his velocity in at least the mid-90s, and make good on the reports of a developing changeup.

Pick #48: Josh Phegley, C, Indiana

I really love this pick. Phegley could be this draft's Jaff Decker- a hitter with extremely advanced plate discipline, and good power to boot. BA says he only really profiles as a catcher, so he'll have to improve (they also call him a "below-average receiver") there. But, I'm a big fan of his bat, even if he has to move out from behind the plate.

Pick #80: Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M

This pick made a lot of sense given the rest of my draft. I drafted his teammate (Wilson) in the 1-S round, and I really like Raley as a future mid-rotation starter. While he lacks a good fastball (maxing out at 91 MPH), he brings excellent movement, great control, a plus curveball, and a strong changeup to the table. All that adds up to someone with first-round talent... But, with some slight signability concerns as a draft-eligible sophomore, I am absolutely fine that he lasted here. I don't think we will need to break the bank to bring him in.

Pick #110: J.R. Murphy, C, Pendleton School, Bradenton, Fla.

I don't know how realistic this pick is, given the rest of my draft. Murphy will likely be expensive, and I had already taken a catcher with Phegley. That being said, he fits perfectly in the rest of my draft's M.O., with a strong, advanced bat. I think his bat could play well, even at first base. I also considered SS Chris Owings. More realistic picks would have been SS Ryan Jackson of Miami U, and Matt den Dekker of Florida.

So, what do you think? Like I said, I'm pretty pleased with these 7 picks. I managed to really, really fortify our system's pitching depth, getting a couple top-of-the-rotation talents, and some nice complementary pitching in Wilson and Raley. Plus, I managed to get a few offensive-minded positional players in Davidson, Phegley, and Murphy. The only problem I think I had was keeping budget in mind, as most of my picks will be somewhat expensive.

MOD #3: Los Angeles Angels

RedSoxFaithful — Tue, 26 May 2009 02:35:11 -0000

First thing first: I need a deputy. There's a decent chance I won't be available for the back-end of the draft, and I really would like to have someone to proxy for me. If anybody is interested, do not hesitate to ask (via a comment here, a PM, an AIM at TheRedSoxJunkie, or an email at antiyankee@cox.net). Thanks!

Second order of business: Today, I'd like to focus on our back-end picks. We've fleshed out some good ideas about our first two picks, and I don't think it's all that productive to talk about them more until we get closer to the draft. We have two picks that could be classified as "back-end". They are #80 and #110.

Pick #80: Let's look at some potential targets here. First off, I brought up Keith Law's Draft Top 100. The #80 guy on that list is Joe Gardner, a RHP out of UC Santa Barbara. He's someone I admittedly am not familiar with, so I have no idea if he'd be someone I'm interested in. However, the #79 guy on that list, Scott Bittle, is someone I'm very familiar with. Obviously, Bittle made some news last year by not signing with the Yankees. I think we might be at a spot now, where this is our 5th pick in the draft already, and we can afford to take a high upside reliever like Bittle. He's even gotten a few starts in this year... Despite not really doing anything to hurt his stock, he's seemingly fallen out of the 2nd round, where he was drafted last year. Might be a good and realistic target for us.

Pick #110: I don't really have an idea of a potential target here, but one guy I am interested in is prep pitcher Tanner Bashue. He's very raw, with the potential for two plus pitches, but he doesn't throw real hard. He could potentially add a few MPH to his fastball, but there's some injury risk here. But, for a raw pitcher with a high ceiling, he's extremely signable. He might be a good target if he falls to us, although there is a huge chance he goes in the 2nd or early 3rd rounds.

Anybody else have any other suggestions, targets, or ideas for these two picks? Please refrain from commenting on the first four picks, as we will revisit those in the coming week in MOD #4. And, again, don't forget about my deputy request. Thanks for reading!

Poll

If Scott Bittle is available at #80, barring any unforeseen players falling with him, do you take him?

Yes

2 votes

No

7 votes

9 votes | Poll has closed

MOD: Angels #2

RedSoxFaithful — Wed, 20 May 2009 21:05:14 -0000

Hello again, today I'm going to further flesh out my expectations for those magical first two picks of ours, #24 and #25.

I am still looking for a prep pitcher to fall to the slot, but I think we're getting a better idea of possible names. I know a lot of people are high on Tyler Skaggs, but I think there might be better pitchers available at this point.

My top three "These guys won't make it past us" picks are:

Chad James, LHP
Rex Brothers, LHP
James Paxton, LHP

I love James' potential for two plus pitches with his FB and curve, and I have confidence in his control, as well. As far as potential 4-pitch starters go in this draft, the fact that none of James' pitches appear to be significantly weak is a huge asset.

Brothers is obviously a riskier pick, since he really only has one developed pitch after his fastball (his already plus slider). The lack of another pitch scares me, as do the numerous people saying he could wind up as a reliever. Still, with all of the Angels' picks, I can see them taking a gamble on a guy with a ceiling as high as Brothers'.

Paxton is interesting. If he's still on the board here, it's obviously because of signability concerns. He has Boras as an agent, and that's scaring a lot of teams off. But he's a really advanced pitcher already, and has as much pure stuff as any non-Strasburg pitcher in the draft.

My top three "These guys should be available, and I don't hate them" picks are:

Jared Mitchell, OF
Wil Myers, C/3B
Rich Poythress, 1B

I think the Angels have made mistakes in recent years by signing so many high-cost, aging outfielders, and they're realizing that now. With Mitchell, my new regime would take a step to correct that by taking a toolsy outfielder that has a higher ceiling than current toolsy outfield prospect Peter Bourjos. Mitchell will probably fit right around this spot anyway... His stock has fallen quite a bit, and I'd be happy to get him here.

Myers would be a perfect fit here. I love him as a catcher, but if he can't stick there, we could use a 3B prospect all the same. He's a little raw, but I have faith in his bat, and he has a cannon for an arm.

It might not make absolute perfect sense, but I think Poythress could be a nice fit on the Angels. I like his bat more than Trumbo's, and he's already an advanced hitter. I could see us taking Poythress, and looking at Trumbo as more of a DH down the road.

So, there you have it. 6 names for 2 spots. Let's discuss what else could be available, what you think of my analysis of our system, and whether you agree or disagree that these players should be taken by the Angels. Any and all opinions are welcome!

MOD: Angels

RedSoxFaithful — Thu, 14 May 2009 15:06:43 -0000

Los Angeles Angels' picks:

#24, #25, #40, #42, #48, #80, #110

Draft Strategies: #24/#25

Today, I'm going to focus on our first two picks. While we do have 5 picks in the first 50, it makes sense that these first two will be the two players with the highest ceilings. Unforunately, due to all of our picks, we won't have the budget to take big names with all five of the first five. This is ok, because we could probably use a couple safer players, anyway.

Now, looking at the Angel system, I'm not sure what to think. There is a real lack of high-upside arms (Walden/Reckling/Smith is about it for the system, and they all project to middle of the rotation guys), and part of me thinks that we should capitalize on that because of the real wealth of pitching in this year's draft. There is a pretty good chance that at least one pitcher falls down to us at #24, and shouldn't be there.

That being said, most of our current positional prospects are majorly flawed. Bourjos, Conger, Trumbo, Sweeney, Fuller... Don't get me wrong, they're good prospects, but I don't see any of them having relatively high ceilings, aside from maybe Conger. Now, there is a real lack of current prospects at C, 2B, and SS (which is mainly because younger guys like Kendrick, Abreu, and Wood have graduated, but none of those guys are irreplaceably good in the long-run anyway). This draft seems to be very deep for MIF, and the first catcher prospect off the board (Max Stassi, it seems) will likely be drafted right around 24. This seems, to me, like another opportunity to capitalize on a draft surplus.

So, while I think it's a good idea to go with the best player available, I think we should really look for two things to happen. First, for a major upside pitcher to fall. Guys like Matt Purke, Zach Wheeler, Rex Brothers. I'd rather not have a "safer" pitcher at this point, so I'm currently interested in our options as far as guys with front-of-the-rotation potential go. Second, for Grant Green, Jiovanni Mier, Max Stassi, Wil Myers, or Tommy Joseph to slip to us.

Note that, for these first two picks, I'm not really concerned about signability. The 2010 draft will likely be deeper than this one, and our 5 top-50 picks this year mean that if one were to get bumped to next year, it wouldn't really mean anything.

What do you guys think? Should we have our eyes on anyone in particular?

Community Mock Draft: Pick 1-3

RedSoxFaithful — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 19:26:38 -0000

With 45% of the vote, UNC's Dustin Ackley is the #2 pick in our community mock draft. USC's Grant Green was the clear-cut runner-up, garnering 26% of the vote. With the Padres on the board now, however, there's a pretty good chance that the #3 pick will be a pitcher. Let's see what sort of reasoning we can come up with for them.

ON THE CLOCK: San Diego Padres (#1-3)

DRAFT RECAP- Round 1:

1-1 (Washington Nationals): Stephen Strasburg, RHP, SDSU

1-2 (Seattle Mariners): Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF, UNC

1-3 (San Diego Padres): ON THE CLOCK

1-4 (Pittsburgh Pirates):

1-5 (Baltimore Orioles):

1-6 (San Francisco Giants):

1-7 (Atlanta Braves):

1-8 (Cincinnati Reds):

1-9 (Detroit Tigers):

1-10 (Washington Nationals):

1-11 (Colorado Rockies):

1-12 (Kansas City Royals):

1-13 (Oakland Athletics):

1-14 (Texas Rangers):

1-15 (Cleveland Indians):

1-16 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-17 (Arizona Diamondbacks):

1-18 (Florida Marlins):

1-19 (St. Louis Cardinals):

1-20 (Toronto Blue Jays):

1-21 (Houston Astros):

1-22 (Minnesota Twins):

1-23 (Chicago White Sox):

1-24 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-25 (Los Angeles Angels):

1-26 (Milwaukee Brewers):

1-27 (Seattle Mariners):

1-28 (New York Yankees):

1-29 (Boston Red Sox):

1-30 (Tampa Bay Rays):

1-31 (New York Yankees):

1-32 (Chicago Cubs):

1-33 (Colorado Rockies):

As always, I'd like for this to be with realism in mind. So, take into account, if you will, what a team might need, how a team might draft, what a team might spend, etc. Each poll will consist of 10 players and will last 48 hours. Players will be listed alphabetically by last name. I'm basing the listed players off of multiple other mock drafts, but feel free to suggest someone to be added/removed.

Let's try to have a little more conversation in the threads. Just as important as WHO you vote for is WHY you vote for them. :-)

Thanks, and have fun!

Poll

Who will the Padres take with pick #3 in June's Amateur Draft?

Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Valley

49 votes

Kentrail Davis, OF, HS

1 votes

Kyle Gibson, RHP, MISS

12 votes

Grant Green, SS, USC

85 votes

Tyler Matzek, LHP, HS

33 votes

Shelby Miller, RHP, HS

7 votes

Andrew Oliver, RHP, OKST

0 votes

Matthew Purke, LHP, HS

4 votes

Donovan Tate, OF, HS

11 votes

Alex White, RHP, UNC

36 votes

238 votes | Poll has closed