SB Nation User Blog: Reg Dunlop

Citi shares reverse course, sale talk optimism fades

Reg Dunlop — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:24:03 -0000

Citi shares reverse course, sale talk optimism fades

So, where will the Mets be playing next year? From now on I will refer to the new Mets park as TBD Field.

The new Axis of Evil?

Reg Dunlop — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:44:51 -0000

The new Axis of Evil?

I know it's only concessions, but this is like Machiavelli and Karl Rove forming a consulting firm.

(Sorry for going all "Dennis Miller" on you there.)

Philadelphia forcing Mets fans to hit new Lowe

Reg Dunlop — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:16:48 -0000

Philadelphia forcing Mets fans to hit new Lowe

In the midst of a rambling article John Harper has this nugget:

"OK, so here's a thought: Any chance the Phillies would take Carlos Beltran even up for Shane Victorino? "

I was going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was being facetious. But based on the way he blows Victorino, I think he's serious.

So to answer the question: A. Of course the Phillies would make that deal. A brain dead monkey would make that and deal, and B. (to steal directly form Amy Poehler and Seth Meyers) REALLY? Trading Beltran for Victorino? This is your solution to the Mets problems? REALLY?

Evaluating the middle relief options

Reg Dunlop — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 16:30:57 -0000

While most of the MSM will be looking at big ticket starters and a closer to replace Billy Wagner, the Mets achillies heel this year was clearly middle relief. Middle releif is probably the most difficult area to evaluate because of the small sample size and high visability nature of the job. Traditional metrics like W-L and ERA will flucuate wildy from year to year, so giving a big contract to a pitcher who had "good year" is usually a losing proposition. K rate, BB, rate, GB%, LOB%, and HR rate are better ways to structure middle relief. But with the lack of power arms in the Mets organization, they are more likely to fill slots via free agency.

Assuming the Mets will carry 12 pitchers, there are six middle relief slots available. I will assume that nobody will be traded or released. The Mets have two LOOGY's in Feliciano and Schoeneweis, and a ROOGY in Joe Smith. Sanchez and Heilman are both under control as all purpose relievers. That leaves one slot to fill either with an internal option, or through free agency.

Internal options:

Brian Stokes: His 7.02 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, and 83% LOB% in 33 IP with the Mets were significantly better than his previous MLB totals. Because of his ability to start he could function as both a long reliever and a short man. Manuel seemed to trust him down the stretch, but his relative success this year could be an aberration. Verdict: Minor League Contract

Luis Ayala: If the Mets sign a closer, and re-sign Ayala, he could return to his more traditional set up role. Ayala has been considered an effective set up man through out his career but he struggled in his first full season since coming back from surgery in 2006. However his career strikeout rate (5.83/9) and his career LD% (21%) point to signs of a pitcher who has been more lucky then good. Verdict: Pass

Brandon Knight: In 10 minor league seasons (1254 IP) he struck out 1133 batters and walked 438. He had 10K and 7BB in limited work in the majors this year. At best he would be a cheap long reliever. Verdict: Minor League Contract

Eddie Kunz: His minor league K/9 rate of 7.9 and BB/9 rate of 4.7 does not inspire confidence. (In me at lest) He is an extreme ground ball pitcher who gave up a home run in his 2.2 innings of MLB work. A fluke? Or a sign that he doesn't have the stuff to be effective at the Major League level? There has to be a GM out there who thinks his ability to accumulate saves at the college and AA level is worth something. Verdict: Trade Bait

Free Agent options:

There is not a whole lot out there to get excited about. But a couple of names aroused my interest.

Kyle Farnsworth: One of the biggest names on the list. Don't let Yankees fan fool you. He is a good pitcher. In 2008 he posted a 9.1 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, and LOB% of 84.7% after posting K/9 rates over 10 in three of the previous four seasons. He was victimized by the long ball (2.24/9) and by a high BABIP (.335). Because of his baggage in New York he could end up being a media whipping boy if he fails. Verdict: Worth a reasonable contract

Bobby Howry: A contact pitcher who seemed to run into some bad luck this year to the tune of a .354 BABIP. He doesn't have high K rate (7.75/9 career) but he also doesn't walk too many. (2 or under/9 the last 4 years) He also has career LOB% of 75%. Verdict: If all else fails

Dennys Reyes: Another player who has been considered an effective set up man over the past few years. He struggled with control in 2007, but was effective in 2006 and 2008. He doesn't have a high strikeout rate (8.12 career) but he can get ground balls, (56.7% career GB%) and strand runners (91.7, 77.3, 87.6 LOB% the past three years). Plus he would fit in with Omar's plans to acquire players named Reyes. Verdict: Worth a reasonable contract

Arthur Rhodes: He's old, but he's still good for a strikeout an inning. His work load would have to be limited. Verdict: A last resort

Darren Oliver: He did a fine job for the Mets in 2006 and has been a reliable long reliever for the Angels. But the Mets need short relief and have other internal options for a long reliever. Verdict: Pass

Guillermo Mota: J/K. (Please don't ban me for mentioning his name) Verdict: Torture

Matt Wise: Oh yea. We tried that already. Verdict: Minor League Contract or Pass

Juan Cruz: This guy intregues me. As a releiver for Arizona the past two years he has posted K/9 rates of 12.84 and 12.37. Unfortunately he has a BB/9 rate of 4.72 and 5.40. In spite of the high walk rate he has posted LOB% of 74.8 and 83.6. He is only 30 years old. This seems like the type of high risk, high reward pitcher the Mets have lacked and he might be under the radar enough to be a low risk signing. Verdict: Take a chance

The "Armando Benitez Effect"

Reg Dunlop — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:05:22 -0000

(promoted from fanposts. --eric)

In July of 1999 the Mets handed the torch of "closer" from John Franco to Armando Benitez. His numbers in the three and a half years he spent as Mets closer are as follows:

Year	SV	BS	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	OPSA	WPA
1999	19	3	15.25	5.00	1.19	.525	N/A
2000	41	5	12.55	4.50	1.01	.559	3.10
2001	43	3	10.97	4.72	1.30	.687	3.28
2002	33	4	10.56	3.34	1.05	.603	4.37

By any evaluation these are very good numbers for a reliever. The BB/9 numbers are higher than you would like to see, but the WHIPs are reasonable given the high walk rate. The K/9 numbers are what you want from a bullpen ace. And if "saves" are your thing, Benitez did a good job of compiling them and not blowing them.

And yet the mention of the name Armando Benitez sends a chill down the spine of many a Mets fan. Why? The reason for this can be traced back to three games.

Game 6 1999 NLCS vs. ATL
Game 1 2000 WS vs. NYY
September 23, 2001 vs. ATL

All three were soul-crushing losses aided by, in no small part, Armando Benitez.

So how can someone that was so effective overall be judged by so few bad performances? This phenomenon will henceforth be known as the "Armando Benitez Effect" (ABE)

The ABE occurs because the failures of good relievers are magnified by the high leverage situations in which they most often pitch. We become so used to seeing a star reliever put up good numbers and succeed in most situations that their success becomes mundane. Our brains cannot recall all of the good things an ace reliever does because these events occur so often. However, when this reliever fails, it becomes a memorable event. We can hold on to that information because it was unique. Since any "Blown Save" represents a lost opportunity for our team to win, these failures become even more magnified. When this type of failure happens in a "clutch" situation, (pennant race, playoff game) it becomes a catastrophic event that anyone can easily recall.

In short, good relievers' successes are ordinary and get repressed mentally, while their failures are extraordinary and become highly memorable. This is what happened to Armando Benitez during his tenure with the Mets.

I bring up the ABE because of the situation with Billy Wagner. Wagner has put up excellent numbers with the Mets since joining the team in 2006. Yet his failures in key situations have led many fans to question his value. Now that his career as a Met is likely over, the debate will rage over whether or not to sign Francisco Rodriguez.

K-Rod is on the verge of setting the record for saves in a season and he is widely perceived as being one of the best closers in baseball. Here are his numbers since becoming a closer:

Year	SV	BS	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	OPSA	WPA
2005	45	5	12.16	4.28	1.14	.591	3.04
2006	47	4	12.08	3.45	1.10	.609	4.98
2007	40	6	12.03	4.54	1.25	.605	3.08
2008	55	6	10.27	4.40	1.24	.621	3.77

They are eerily similar to the numbers Benitez put up as a Met except with six more blown saves. So why isn't he perceived as a failure they way Benitez was? Simply put, he doesn't matter to Mets fans. His failures have not been important enough to garner widespread attention and since we, as Mets fans do not have anything invested in him, his minor failures don't matter to us.

If the Mets do sign him to a long-term deal he will likely put up very good to great numbers. (He will certainly put up better numbers than anyone on the team or in the organization could put up) And everyone will love him because he "gets the job done". Until he blows that first big save, in a key situation, in a game the team "has to have". And he *will* fail. All relievers fail at some point. At that point he will go from being a conquering hero to a guy who is not worth the paper his contract was printed on. And everyone will complain about another overpaid, under performing player who doesn't come through in the clutch.

This is the "Armando Benitez Effect"

Edit:

I wanted to add a simplified working definition to further clarify what the ABE is all about. How does this sound?

The "Armando Benitez Effect" - 1. A specific lack of confidence fans of a team have in their closer/relievers, in spite of statistical evidence that indicates the closer/releiver will succeed most times. 2. A feeling of intense nausea brought on by hearing "Who let the dogs out?" by the Baja Men

One more reason Val Pascucci should be on the team!

Reg Dunlop — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:42:14 -0000

One more reason Val Pascucci should be on the team!

Bullpen help!

Maybe help is the wrong word. But it's not much worse than we can expect from Schoeneweis or Muniz.

Fixing the Bullpen

Reg Dunlop — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 05:12:49 -0000

My plan for improving the bullpen is a multi-faceted plan that involves roster moves, trades, praying on the weak and stupid GM's, better utilizing personnel, and the possible return of a fan favorite.

Part I: Cut the dead weight

This means Schoeneweis. He is terrible. The only reason his numbers against lefties look decent is because of an unsustainable BABIP. DFA him. Maybe someone will be duped into picking him up and getting us of the hook for the last year of his contract.

Part II: Trade Val Pascucci and John Rodriguez

I want to make clear that I am not advocating the trade of Val Pascucci or John Rodriguez. As a matter of fact, I think it is criminal that neither has been called up this year given the state of the Mets corner outfield. So if they are going to languish in New Orleans, you might as well use them to try and get bullpen help. There are teams out there that need immediate replacement level outfielders. The Reds and Pirates immediately come to mind. From the Pirates I would like John Grabow. He's a 29 year old lefty with a career K/9 of 8.17. (7.15 in 2008) He has had more PA's vs. RHB's this year but pitches effectively against both righties and lefties. From the Reds I would like Bill Bray is a 25 year old lefty with a career K/9 8.13 (9.46 in 2008) Bray also has had more PA's against RHB's this year and they have hit him somewhat better than lefties. But based on the splits it's reasonable to assume that Bray would be effective against both sides.

Part III: Sell high on Eddie Kunz

Nothing about his peripherals in the minors or in college (except for the ground balls) suggest that he will be anything more than a Joe Smith type pitcher. Yet he is being hyped because he racked up saves at double A. Most people understand how useless saves are as a predictive stat but there are still plenty of GM's that seem to think it has value. Find one of them and get rid of him now! My primary target would be the Houston Astros and Ed Wade. He has a passion for relievers and he might be convinced to part with a MLB ready pitcher for the hype that is Kunz. Jose Valverde would be great and Wade might just be dumb enough to do it. I would also settle for Geoff Geary or Doug Brocail with something else attached. The Royals are also an option and have Ron Mahay to offer. If I could get Brian Fuentes for Kunz I would do that as well.

Part IV: Utilization

Smith and Feliciano should not start innings. Heilman and Sanchez at least have the chance of going a whole inning. Let them start innings and if they get into trouble, then match up. To help, the defense has to be utilized better. Using Argenis Reyes to pinch hit and then taking him out makes no sense. Use A. Reyes as a defensive replacement to help support the ground ball heavy pitchers.

Part V: If all else fails

Call Jesse Orosco. I doubt he can be much worse that Schoeneweis.

D-backs get Dunn from Reds for three prospects

Reg Dunlop — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:29:19 -0000

D-backs get Dunn from Reds for three prospects

A third rounder recovering from Tommy John surgery and two players to be named later?

Now I hate Omar even more!

Johan Santana and Pitch Counts

Reg Dunlop — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 02:58:05 -0000

One thing has been made abundantly clear this season. The Mets bullpen hates Johan Santana. Santana has eight ND's this year, and in six of them he left the game in position to win. The failure of the bullpen to protect wins for Santana has intensified the debate over when he should be taken out of games. Many observers have criticized the coaching staff for not letting him go far past 100 pitches and some have even questioned Santana's desire to go deeper into games.

Surely, a $150 million ace can go more than 100 pitches! Santana can certainly go deeper into games because he has done it in the past! This is just another case of managers coddling their pitchers and over managing the games!

Except for one thing. Johan IS throwing more pitches than he has in his career.

Below is a chart of Johan's average pitches per start, games where he has thrown between 100-110 pitches, and games where he has thrown over 110 pitches since he became a full time starter in 2004.

Year   Pitches/Start   100-110 Pitches   Over 110 (120+)
2004            100.6                   15                          7 (0)
2005            100.8                   16                            5 (0)
2006            101.5                   17                            2 (1)
2007            101.1                   15                            5 (0)
2008            103.3                   10                            7 (0)

Santana is throwing slightly more pitches per start this season than his career average, but more importantly, he has already matched his career high in starts throwing over 110 pitches. He only needs to throw 100 pitches in four of his remaining starts to match his career average in 100 pitch outings. He has already thrown his typical one CG for the season and his average of 6.7 innings per start is in line with his career average.

Johan has never been the rubber armed, 120 pitch, Livan Hernandez type that some writers and analysts have made him out to be. It's absurd to expect him, at the age of 29, to suddenly become that type of pitcher simply because he has a big contract and the bullpen is terrible. Since Santana has six more years on his contract it would seem unwise to push him beyond historical limits out of fear of a bullpen meltdown.

Santana has left room for improvement. He needs to lower his contact rate, lower his line drive rate, and improve is K/9, BB/9, and K/BB ratio so he can make his pitch count more effective. The bullpen also needs to do their job and protect the leads that Johan gives them. But the answers to getting more out of Johan's starts lie in the ability of each pitcher to perform according to task and not in pushing Santana to the point of overuse.

The "Untouchables"?

Reg Dunlop — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:24:32 -0000

Up to this point I have been an advocate of holding on to top prospects in the organization. My belief is based on the fact that I don’t think this team is good enough to justify clearing out more of the system for short term help and nobody that has been mentioned as a return is that big of an upgrade.

And while my overall opinion has not changed, after a little research, my enthusiasm for some of the players deemed “too valuable” to trade has been dampened. I haven’t soured on Fernando Martinez. His injuries this year aside, he is only 19 and has a huge upside. But the other top Mets hitting prospects are more troubling.

Dan Murphy is putting up good numbers, but his fielding is pretty bad. David Wright also blocks him at his natural position. The attempts to move him to 2B are suspect at best. Mike Carp is having a very good year in his second year at Double A. His BA and OBP are well above where his numbers have been in the past. His power numbers have been pretty consistent which is promising, but some red flags go up here. Nick Evans has struggled in limited work in the majors. He is clearly a work in progress, but he doesn’t seem to have the natural power to justify a corner outfield or 1B spot.

Of greater concern to me is the pitching. As much hype as Niese, Parnell, and Kunz have received going into the deadline, their peripherals are cause for concern. In his minor league career Kunz has a K/9 of 7.6, and K/BB of 1.6, and a 1.31 WHIP. It’s a small sample, but his numbers at Oregon State reflect this type of performance. Parnell’s K/9 is 7.9, his K/BB is 1.98, and his WHIP is 1.39. Niese has the most promising numbers with an 8.36 K/9, a 2.56 K/BB, and a 1.36 WHIP.

None of these numbers are awful but since they don’t dominate in the minors it’s hard to envision them being anything more the middle of the pack major leaguers. When you compare them to the more highly touted, “can’t miss” guys in recent years their performances just don’t stack up. Guys like Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Kershaw, Buchholz, and Volquez all had K/9 rate over 9 and K/BB ratios over 3 (except Volquez) to go along with a more dominating WHIP.

I’m not arguing that it is worth trading these guys for the limited services of a Raul Ibanez or Brian Fuentes. But based on what I see, especially from the pitchers, these guys should be far from “untouchable”.