SB Nation User Blog: RememberthePhitans

Mr. Positive changes photo - world ends

RememberthePhitans — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:06:04 -0000

Mr. Positive changes photo - world ends

Mr. Positive changed his photo. All of a sudden, it is less charming and sort of creepy. Please, please tell me someone archived a big copy of the old one for T-shirt use. Wayback Machine, perhaps?

Interleague Play Whining

RememberthePhitans — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:28:50 -0000

Interleague Play Whining

Click on the header to get the interleague standings added on the link. Phillies = 1 behind the Dodgers in the loss column with 5 to play. Interleague records? Dodgers 9-9; Phillies 6-12. Division play creates intraleague inequities, but adding an additional layer via interleague just makes it worse, IMHO. Feel free to whine now. I just did.

Interesting Phillies Stats for 2009

RememberthePhitans — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 11:14:25 -0000

Several interesting statistical things popped out at me today as I searched for MLB 3rd basemen who are worse than Pedro Feliz who have more at bats than he has. On the way, and going down several rabbit holes, I found some interesting notes about the Phillies this year. As jonk posted recently, the Phillies are good, but sometimes in ways that may surprise us, even if we watch the games. It's sort of a grab bag of things that looked interesting today: GIDP, SB%, ERA+ (!), Pedro Feliz' suckitude all behind the cut...

GIDP: As discussed here recently, the Phillies avoid double plays. They really, really avoid double plays. To date, the Phillies have been doubled up 86 times, which is fewer than any team in MLB except the Texas Rangers. By way of comparison, the Astros lead the league at 142 on the year. The Astros have an OBP of .321 and the Phillies have an OBP of .325, so it is not a function of the Astros having more baserunners to get wiped out.

GIDP avoidance does not appear to be an anomaly affecting only 2009 -- in 2008, the Phillies had only 108 GIDP for the full year. Only four teams had fewer. 2007? 22nd in MLB. 2006? 27th in MLB. 2005? 29th in MLB.

Why is this? Good team speed? Perhaps they get doubled off less often. Perhaps the prevalence of fly ball hitters helps them. Perhaps those rally-killing homeruns constantly clear the bases. Perhaps the xBH put runners past first more often than not. Perhaps Utley's take-out slides help out. These are probably all be factors, but a full treatment is beyond the scope of this today. It would be interesting to see what can make a team "good" at this, since the Phillies clearly are for some reason.

Stolen Base %:

Davey Lopes gets a lot of love around here (at least from everyone but WetLuzinski, who still harbors a 1970's grudge. Blame the ump, not Lopes, WL). The Phillies had 28 CS in 2008 along with 136 SB. They had the fourth most steals and the fifth fewest CS. The 136 steals and the 28 outs and a SWAG (scientific wild-ass guess) from the run expectancy chart suggests an extra 20 runs were created by the steals (136 * .15 for advancing a base -- I know, I know -- it's a SWAG, not calculations to send a rocket to Mars) while maybe 11 runs were lost by the CS (about .5 run lost per CS). (note: see here -- my SWAG turned out to be pretty close) The Phillies were SB winners in 2008.

In 2009, the story continues in much the same vein: 106 SB and 24 CS. That average is inflated somewhat by the master thief, Ryan Howard (7/0), but we can expect a reversion to the mean next year, I suspect. The Phillies are 9th in MLB in steals and only two teams have fewer CS. The ratio of SB to CS (SB%) needs to be a bit over 3 - 1 (75%) to have a winner in SB. Situational issues can affect this, but over the course of the year, 75% is needed to come out ahead. The Phillies have the best SB% in 2009. This was true in 2008, also. And 2007. They were good, but not the best in 2006 (6th in MLB). All Davey Lopes? Nope, but maybe fine-tuned a bit, and that marginal bit (the amount that is "a bit over 75%") is what makes stolen bases productive instead of break-even for the Phillies:

2009:82.0 (1)

2008: 84.5 (1)

2007: 87.9 (1)

Davey Lopes Hired -- 10/2006

2006: 78.6 (6)

2005: 81.1 (2)

2004: 78.7 (2)

2003: 71.3 (13)

2002: 70.7 (10)

The Phillies have been good at stealing bases -- Lopes made them great (he is 6th all-time in SB%, by the way).

ERA+

Despite playing in a high school field, the ERA rank for the Phillies to date this year is 6th in the NL. The ERA+ rank is 7th. Understand, of course, that the team that bumps them is Colorado, but it is still somewhat interesting that the Phillies home park is penalizing, rather than assisting, them in the ERA+ rankings this year.

Pedro Feliz is awful:

Find another 3B with an OPS+ that is lower with more AB in 2009. Fielding helps balance this out, as 92% of the balls fielded at 3B by Phillies players result in outs (best in the NL), and Feliz is responsible for most of that, but his hitting is beyond awful. The best view I could find easily for OPS (not OPS+, though) and showing pitches seen (not ABs, since I couldn't get it to sort by two stats) is here. Not exactly NSFW, but you might make some unexpected exclamations, so do be careful. It's horror show bad.

Hamels' xFIP is 6th best in NL - Hamels not broken, just unlucky?

RememberthePhitans — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:38:31 -0000

Hamels' xFIP is 6th best in NL - Hamels not broken, just unlucky?

Stumbled across this pretty good story:

It discusses Brian Banniser of KC and his favorite stat: xFIP. He notes that Hamels is doing better on that than any other starter for the Phillies. Seems to confirm several scattered threads from TGP - Hamels peripherals are not off a cliff; he's just been unlucky. Worth a read.

Math is the friend of the Phillies, so how to play it out?

RememberthePhitans — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 12:00:35 -0000

Baseball Prospectus kindly plays the remainder of the season millions of times to bring us all the playoff odds on a daily basis. Clicky-clicky. I frequently delight in the obvious, such as the fact that the Phillies will, barring a catastrophic collapse, win the NL East and thereby earn a golden ticket into the Willy Wonka's chocolate factory at the end of the season. Let us hope they are, again, Cholly, and not Veruca Salt. The ugliness for the Fish is below the cut.

Below that are some questions that, given the math, I think are less obvious and more interesting. Since the division is almost assuredly locked up, how should the team (if at all) alter its strategy for call-ups or use of regulars?

As of this morning, the Phillies have played 106 games (61-45, .575). The Marlins have played 108 (55-53, .509). The Phillies have lost 45 and the Marlins have lost 53. The Marlins, to win outright, have to lose 9 fewer games over their last 54 games than the Phillies lose over their last 56.

If the Phillies continue to play .575 ball, they will win 32 and lose 24 the rest of the way. The Marlins would then need to go 39-15 (.722 or a 117 win pace). Can it be done? Sure, but fat chance. The Phillies just went 20-7 in July, for one of their best records ever for a month. The Marlins would have to do that in back-to-back months.

If the Phillies regress to .500 (28-28), then the Marlins would still need to go 35-19, which is nearly the same level of performance (.648, or a 105 win pace).

Keep in mind that the best win% in MLB this year is the Dodgers at .615. For a short period (and the rest of the season qualifies) it is certainly possible to put on big bursts -- the Phillies just went .741 for July, which is clearly unsustainable for the long term, but not impossibly unsustainable for a shorter term. The Mariners had a magical season like that in recent memory, but it was one for the ages.

Even if the Phillies start to choke at a .450 pace (25 - 31), the Marlins need to go 32-22 (.592). Phillies at .400 (22-34)? Marlins must go 29-25 (.537) which they haven't been able to do all season.

There is not just "one chance" for the Phillies to choke -- the Braves are, like the guy in the Holy Grail "Not dead yet..." but it's worse for them. They still have a lottery ticket too, though, and two small chances are worse for the Phillies than one small chance. BP will track that for us, too.

The reason years like 1964 are so remarkable is that they happen so infrequently. That said, the Phillies did benefit from two massive collapses by the Mets over the last two years. Nevertheless, a collapse like that is highly unlikely and it is getting less and less likely with each Phillies win or Marlins loss. I am pretty much writing off that scenario as "highly unlikely" though I certainly expect consternation re: jinxes and other myths from some of you -- we cheer for the Phillies, after all, so there is certainly a good, strong tradition of expecting the worst.

In any case, let's assume my forecast is highly likely: *What to do now?*

There will assuredly be many calls to "keep the pedal to the metal" and "don't play not to lose", but I don't buy any of that. This isn't the fourth quarter of a football game. This is the inexorable and slow mathematical suffocation of the Mets, Braves, and Marlins (more or less in that order, and likely complete by the third week of September).

What should the Phillies do under these circumstances?

1. Starting Pitcher abuse: I was disgusted with the decision for drag out Happ for the ninth with his pitch count where it was earlier this week. I likewise was not thrilled when Lee (in his first Phillies start) went as long as he did. One of the reasons the 2008 team won so many games was a lack of injuries. Dragging out the starters, while it may be needed occasionally for the pen, seems absurd if the team hopes to have good, fresh arms to pitch in meaningful games in October. I propose a hard ceiling of 95-100 pitches. This is somewhat arbitrary, but there should be no 120+ pitch outings. There are plenty of garbage innings available from the bottom of the bullpen.

2. Position players: Rollins should be left alone. His mojo is working, finally, so my thought is to let him continue to terrorize the world. Ibanez: he is not getting any younger. Sit him more. Think about whether calling up players (Michael Taylor?) would be worth any possible acceleration of free agency/arbitration and weigh that vs. having Stairs play a bit more to take the edge off. Let's see more Bruntlett (I can't believe I'm saying this, but it might not be bad to have him out there every game) and let one of Utley/Howard/Feliz have more time off. Keep Ruiz and Bako switching regularly.

3. Bullpen: Keep working Lidge/Madson regularly to see what really is there, but watch the overall usage. Better (?) to have fresh and erratic than tired and erratic, I guess. Don't be afraid to try out Pedro (or possibly Myers) in a significant bullpen audition. Myers will be a FA anyway -- might as well use him. He's probably game, since he'd like to show something in advance of filing.

4. Rotation: Keep hucking Moyer out there. Keep putting Happ out there. There's no need to get rid of anybody. Perhaps the 6 man rotation could be tried, considering that a Pedro start would essentially be a bullpen start (figuring on using 3 or so pitchers before bridging to the back of the pen to close it out). With an expanded roster available in September, I think this makes even more sense. This may help to rest Hamels a bit (although the discussions on his peripherals earlier this week here suggests Hamels may not be as much of a problem as it appears at first blush).

In any case, I am all for coasting, but the coasting needs to be productive with a goal in mind: find out about the minor league talent (without exposing the team to adverse payroll consequences down the road); rest players to avoid injuries/fatigue; find out what Pedro has in the tank; try to learn more about the pen (Myers? Pedro possibly? Keep working Lidge/Madson. See if Condrey can contribute).

Nothing shocking or remarkable, but I think the issues are worth thinking about. Circumstances may change, but right now, instead of furiously charging to the end, as with the last two years, the team is in a different situation. It would be foolish not to at least consider the changed circumstances and see how those might need to be modified given the differences from the last two seasons.

Fielding ratings: Utley = best defensive player in baseball in 2008

RememberthePhitans — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:57:48 -0000

Fielding ratings discussed here at CNNSI. The winners? Rollins, Utley, Victornio, Feliz, and...Ryan Howard. Please...please...Howard was not a "winner" per se, but his improvement from his rookie year, year over year, was noticed. I've sort of "felt" this from watching him over the last half of last year and the first half this year, but seeing the validation in a more formal model is good -- unlike Obi Wan, I do not trust my instincts.

The Phillies' better fielders were no surprise -- Utley ("relies on positioning" in essence), Rollins, and Victorino. Feliz has the reputation, and the UZR seemed to bear out the reputation, as he scored highly as well.

The article is a great read in a major media outlet with non-traditional (i.e. not just "# of errors") analysis prevailing. If you wondered why the Phillies did well last year, the following facts may be big reasons: 3 of the 4 infielders were at/near the top of defensive ratings and the first baseman (much maligned) is average. The outfielder that matters the most (center) is at the top of his game, too (Rowand gets a mention for his erratic defense, btw).

I don't have time today to do more with this, but I at least wanted to bring it to the attention of the rest of you in case you did not see it.

Why trade for Haren?

RememberthePhitans — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 05:01:05 -0000

Why trade for Haren?

He's already helping out the Phillies. Can they give him an honorary win share?

Intelligent bullpen talk at philly.com

RememberthePhitans — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 06:37:27 -0000

Front-page bump because it links to such an interesting article that addresses many of the points regarding bullpen use that I've been stressing for years. Great job, Andy Martino.

I wanted to cut/paste big chunks of this article, but I'll just link it instead. Baseball writing is getting better in spots, and this is an instance where I think it shows. The discussion of Madson being less valuable as a "closer" than as a set up guy because of the leverage of the situation? Fabulous. If only someone would give Bill Conlin some tainted elderberry wine, it would make my day complete.

6-11-09 Mets highlights from Amazin' Avenue game thread

RememberthePhitans — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:31:49 -0000

At Amazin' Avenue, I lurked to see how the other half lives. It was sort of a bit of undercover anthropological field work. I learned that Mets fans are pretty much just like us, with a couple small differences. I think there is a large base of mutually shared frustrations that can serve as common ground to bring our disparate cultures together into a warm, glowing one-ness. Some choice bits are below the cut, along with some obeservations from me.

Cholly has his critics in Philly, to say the least. Mets fans had some observations about him, too. I was surprised by most of them. Here's how one Mets fan feels about Cholly as compared to their Manuel, Jerry:

"they’re doing what they’re supposed to. i hate them too, but they made the right moves in the off-season, have a smart manager, and have a talented core.hate the people that cause your team with an even more talented core to lose to these guys every year."

Smart manager? Wait...there's more:

"Charlie Manuel isn't exactly a genius He’s just much better than our subnormal counterpart"

"He stays out of the way which is all you can ask from your mgr. Just let the fucking players play."

I pretty much have the same take on Charlie -- He doesn't try to do too much and is, therefore, relatively effective. Smart manager? Well, let's not get crazy.

"As someone who loves baseball, It also kills me to know we are being horribly, horribly managed and run as a whole, and the Phillies aren’t. I can’t even throw it up to luck or some other bullshit. The Phillies are just run better. I mean, look who is leading off for us right now. I’m in a serious state of depression."

Sounds like me, circa 2006 re: the Phillies. Also, has he noticed J-Roll leading off? The Beard is still on the Phillies' major league roster. It's nice to know that there are folks that think the Phillies are well-run. I can't agree 100%, but have we Phillies fans been (can it really be?) spoiled by success over the last two [playoff] years (and other recent "close" years)? It has been a good run, possibly one of the best in Phillies history, as mentioned at TGP recently. Could this actually be a well-run team? Is our collective Philly neurosis and insecurity preventing us from really and truly accepting this?

In any case, Mets fans are not so different from us. They hate their manager's stupid moves about as much as we hate it when Cholly keeps having Rollins lead off or repeatedly lets Lidge close and fail before Lidge went on the DL or subbing the Beard for the Bat last year. They hate bunts. They hate over-managing and the diminished results it produces. They despise mediocre players being put back on the field over and over.

Lesson learned? Mets fans are people, too. Just more evil and morally repugnant than those in our tribe. And they are all baby rapers, too. But they are people. Kumbaya, people.

Phillies turning out to be "for real"

RememberthePhitans — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:43:23 -0000

About ten days ago, we were all scratching our heads, wondering if the Phillies are for real this year. The consensus conclusion reached at the time seemed to be "it is still too early to tell". Since then, while it is still likely "too early to tell", we have all been able to observe the team a little longer against competition that is not the Nationals.

As of this writing, the combined records of the Dodgers (40-21), the Padres (28-31), and the Mets (31-26) gives a total record of 99-78. This results in a winning percentage of .559, or 91 wins over a period of 162 games. Since there are 6 teams, other than the Phillies, in MLB with winning percentages of .559 or higher, and only two of those teams are in the NL, I think it can be safely said that this represents "quality" competition.

During this recent window of 9 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .559, the Phillies are 6-3. All on the road.

If you look at the winning percentage of the opponents at their home parks, the Dodgers (23-9), the Padres (19-11), and the Mets (18-10) have a record of 60-30, for a percentage of .667, resulting in a 162 game record for the fictional Combined Opponents (nice roto name, possibly) of 108-54.

I can already envision someone posting "...and Lidge blew X saves, and they shoulda won more!" but the facts are, he did and the Phillies didn't. That's part of it. Even with the flaws, such as Myers' injury, Lidge's struggles, and Rollins' futility at the plate during large portions of this period, the Phillies still have gone 6-3.

All the usual caveats apply -- small sample size being the largest and most-obvious. Nevertheless, it is heartening, if you are a Phillies fan. They went to tough places to win, and they have so far done admirably, all things considered.

It is still too early to tell, though. It will be too early to tell until about 162 games have been played. The last two seasons tell us (and the Mets) this. What I have seen over the last ten days does give me more confidence, however. This is not just a team built to beat the Nationals. This team can play well for extended periods against tough teams on the road. We know this because they just did it. A week and a half ago, we were wondering if the wheels were going to fall off. They didn't.

An additional factor to consider is that between now and the end of the year (105 games remaining), the Mets, to win the division, have to lose 4 fewer games than the Phillies (3 game lead + 1). The Braves 7, and the Marlins 10. As the season continues to get shorter, those gaps obviously become harder and harder to close. This is perhaps a good time to note that it is not too early to bookmark this site.