SB Nation User Blog: Requiem

The 50 AB Sample Size

Requiem — Thu, 08 May 2008 03:58:33 -0000

I've heard repeatedly that Botts didn't "do anything with his chance."

Well, here's a couple of other people who didn't "do anything with their chances" either in a 50 AB stint when they were first able to accumulate 50 AB in a year, so obviously, they must suck, too:

Player A: .216/.293/.431 in 51 AB

Player B: .220/.317/.360 in 50 AB

Player C: .220/.291/.360 in 50 AB

Player D: .160/.236/.320 in 50 AB

Player E: .180/.196/.360 in 50 AB

-Player A was a 23-year old Adrian Gonzalez who was starting in 3 game spurts in April, July, and August.

-Player B was a 25-year old Jason Botts who was starting sporadically between May and July.

-Player C was a 25-year old Travis Hafner who was starting nearly everyday in an August callup.

-Player D was a 23-year old Mark Teixeira who was starting everyday at the start of the season.

-Player E was a 24-year old Alfonso Soriano who was starting in 3 game spurts in April, May, and September.

All pretty comparable with some slight differences in age. But all doing very badly in their 50 AB "trial."

Not only that, all the rest were starting somewhat regularly while Botts, who occasionally had 2 starts back-to-back, was usually starting every 5th day.

And on top of that, just remove his last 2 games, and you'll find that Botts was doing pretty well hitting .250/.358/.409.

This illustrates the problem with having such a small sample size: TWO bad games can make it seem like you "didn't do anything with your chances."

Am I arguing that Botts would be as successful as the other players he's listed with? No. But I AM arguing that 50 AB is way too small to doing any judging and concluding. Especially acting like 50 AB gives us a definitive handle on whether a player can play in the majors or not.

Frankly, Botts has not had a reasonable shot until last year where he was atrocious in August, but improving and decent in September:

August: .207/.288/.304 in 92 AB

September: .280/.372/.373 in 75 AB

Of course, this doesn't excuse his remarks that he made after being sent down this year. But frankly, if I were in the same situation as he is, in which I'd shown I had nothing to prove in AAA, and still I wasn't being allowed to get a real shot to play in the majors, I'd have probably made similar types of remarks.

in AAA

2005: .286/.375/.522 in 510 AB

2006: .309/.398/.582 in 220 AB

2007: .320/.436/.545 in 369 AB

In 2006, when we were 10 games out in 3rd place by September 1st, that should have been the time we were seeing what Botts could do. Not trying to give playing time to DeRosa to secure his next contract.

In 2007, when we were 16 games out in 4th place by June 5th or at least by July, we should have been seeing what Botts could do in the majors. Not playing players like Wilkerson, Hairston, and Sosa who were doing nothing whatsoever and wouldn't be part of the future.

In 2008 in a rebuilding year, we should have been trotting Botts out there every day and see if he could carry over his progress from September 2007 and spring 2008. Not bringing in a spare in Broussard who we know won't help out the team in the future.

Is Botts a major-league worthy bat? I don't know.

But the reason I don't know is because of the way the Rangers have been screwing with his development the past 3 years.

Not particularly because of what Botts has or hasn't done, though it is true that he hasn't lit the world on fire.

Think Showalter would have played Hafner over Palmeiro to see if he could hack it as a 26 year old DH? Given the Rangers' track record with Botts, I severely doubt it.

And that's over 300 games worth of data. NOT 50 ABs.

Bourn/Lidge trade

Requiem — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 04:07:29 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3099599

Two guys who Adam's had some interest in have been traded for each other.

The Phillies sent outfielder Michael Bourn, pitcher Geoff Geary and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo to Houston, and received infielder Eric Bruntlett in addition to Lidge.

I like Houston's side to it.

While Lidge is good, he's been up-and-down the past couple of years....

Interestingly enough, the Astros have Pence in CF (though I'm not sure if they'll keep him there). So, potentially, this might open up a deal for one of CF.... Req

NL GG winners announced, and Dewan's all-fielding team....

Requiem — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 23:04:29 -0000

NL GG Winners

P Greg Maddux
C Brad Ausmus
1B Albert Pujols
2B Orlando Hudson
SS Omar Vizquel
3B Scott Rolen
OF Carlos Beltran
OF Mike Cameron
OF Andruw Jones

Dewan's all-fielding team

First Base - Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (87 points)
Second Base - Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks (90)
Third Base - Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners (78)
Shortstop - Adam Everett, Houston Astros (98)
Left Field - Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (87)
Center Field - Carlos Beltran, New York Mets (90)
Right Field - Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (95)
Catcher - Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers (96)
Pitcher - Greg Maddux, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers (78)

I agree a lot more with the Dewan' All-fielding team than the GGs....

Brad Ausmus?
Vizquel over Everett?
Andruw Jones (he has not been very good over the past couple of years)?

I think it's better to just ignore the Gold Gloves. Hmmmm, maybe that's what I should have done.... Oh, well.

Req

One Defensive Metric's Gold Glove Winners....

Requiem — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 09:31:29 -0000

AL defense

and

NL defense

# are above average (RSpt is Runs Saved total, RS/150 is per 150 games)

Texas Players:

Player GP INN RSpt RS/150
Barajas 94 825.0 1 1
Teixeira 159 1399.0 2 2
Kinsler 119 1032.0 -3 -3
Blalock 122 1063.7 1 1
M Young 155 1356.3 4 4
Wilkerson 80 664.3 -5 -9
Matthews 142 1227.0 -8 -9
DeRosa 60 512.0 2 6
Mench 57 489.7 -6 -16
C Lee(MIL) 98 835.3 -3 -5

Some other notables:

Player GP INN RSpt RS/150
A Gonzalez 155 1341.0 5 5
Soriano 158 1374.7 5 5
D Roberts 116 970.0 14 19
Cameron 141 1244.0 8 9
Giles 158 1399.7 12 11
Pierre 162 1426.0 16 15
Lofton 120 961.0 -2 -3
V Wells 150 1290.3 12 13

Some comments.

Mike Young really improved a lot this year fielding-wise. Let's hope its for real.

GMJ, was not good for the year. OTOH, between the All-Star break and the end of the season his Runs Saved above average was 0..... So, he was better in the 2nd half. I still don't know if it's worth paying him the money as I'd rather get the picks, I think.

Kinsler did a passable job at 2B, but hopefully he'll get better as he learns the position more.

Adrian Gonzalez was an excellent fielding 1B as advertised.

Soriano did very well in LF. It's too bad we couldn't have the cajones to move him there.

Wilkerson and Mench were horrible in the outfield, while Lee in his MIL stint was bad (I don't have the Texas data, so I don't know if he was worse here).

San Diego's outfield was awesome. Given that Chris Young is an extreme flyball pitcher and Petco is a large park, I think it's safe to say that his numbers would not have been as good if he had pitched for Texas.

Finally, Wells' prowess on defense is one major reason I'd rather wait and sign him than GMJ.

Req

FA Types

Requiem — Wed, 25 Oct 2006 22:43:10 -0000

Thought I'd post a diary of this since a lot of the information seems to be scattered. This is a further analysis of what I posted earlier. I'm basically using comparisons of what free agents were considered in earlier rankings.

There are some funky ratings that I'm not sure if they're a fluke or not, which might make these comparisons completely wrong, though. So this is just a guesstimate.

ERA and BA are estimates

Type A
------
-Lee - was type A last year at 82.4 and his 2006 was comparable to his 2004

Likely Type A
-------------
-Barajas - 32 HRs, 101 RBIs, .255 BA, 820 PA
Ausmus in 04-05 - 8 HRs, 78 RBIs, .253 BA, 890 PA = 69.498 (Type A)
Barajas in 03-04 - 18 HRs, 86 RBIs, .235 BA, 628 PA = 60.504 (Type A)

-Matthews - 36 HRs, 134 RBIs, .280 BA, 1216 PA
Lew Ford in 04-05 - 22 HRs, 125 RBIs, .280 BA, 1248 PA = 69.296 (Type A)
Kotsay in 03-04 - 22 HRs, 101 RBIs, .290 BA, 1214 PA = 67.250 (Type A)

Borderline Type B/Type A (Likely Type B)
------------------------
-Padilla - 347 IP, 4.60 ERA, 259 Ks
Lidle in 04-05 - 396 IP, 4.70 ERA, 247 Ks = 66.846 (Type A)
Maroth in 04-05 - 426 IP, 4.50 ERA, 223 Ks = 67.778 (Type A)
Pineiro in 03-04 - 352.3 IP, 4.20 ERA, 262 Ks = 72.024 (Type A)
Lackey in 03-04 - 402.3 IP, 4.65 ERA, 295 Ks = 64.484 (Type B)
Rodrigo Lopez in 03-04 - 317.7 IP, 4.70 ERA, 224 Ks = 62.599 (Type B)

Likely non-compensation FA
--------------------------
-DeRosa - 21 HRs, 94 RBIs, .280 BA, 738 PA
Figgins in 03-04 - 5 HRs, 87 RBIs, .296 BA, 908 PA = 50.250 (Type C)
Crisp in 03-04 - 18 HRs, 98 RBIs, .280 BA, 985 PA = 49.250 (Type C)
Dye in 03-04 - 27 HRs, 100 RBIs, .230 BA, 843 PA = 45.750 (Type C)

-Alfonseca - 43.3 IP, 5.30 ERA, 0 SVs, 21 Ks
Mecir in 03-04 - 84.7 IP, 4.50 ERA, 3 Svs, 74 Ks = 49.238 (Type C)

-Wells - 226.3 IP, 5.20 ERA, 152 Ks
-Eaton - 193.7 IP, 4.60 ERA, 143 Ks
-Wasdin - 105.7 IP, 4.50 ERA, 60 Ks
Ramon Ortiz in 03-04 - 308 IP, 4.90 ERA, 176 Ks = 50.694 (Type C)
Arroyo in 03-04 - 196 IP, 3.90 ERA, 156 Ks = 47.321 (Type C)

-Hairston - 4 HRs, 40 RBIs, .240 BA, 622 PA
-E Young - 5 HRs, 27 RBIs, .240 BA, 322 PA
Ellis in 03-04 - 9 HRs, 52 RBIs, .248 BA, 622 PA = 53.695 (Type C)

Req

No hitting jinxing galore.....

Requiem — Wed, 13 Sep 2006 21:46:23 -0000

Freddy Garcia with a perfect game through 7.....

Watch him give something up in the 8th because of this post....

To get over the word limit,

that's a no-hitter from Anibal Sanchez, a no-hit bid for Randy Johnson and Freddy with this bid all within the span of less than a week.....

Freddy Garcia with a perfect game through 7.....
Freddy Garcia with a perfect game through 7.....
Freddy Garcia with a perfect game through 7.....

Req

The "lovable" Big Papi may not be so lovable any more

Requiem — Mon, 11 Sep 2006 23:23:33 -0000

It looks like Big Papi is shilling for MVP votes and throwing his teammates under a bus while doing so....

"Don't get me wrong -- he's a great player, having a great season, but he's got a lot of guys in that lineup," Ortiz continued. "Top to bottom, you've got a guy who can hurt you. Come hit in this lineup, see how good you can be."

He also doesn't mention having Manny right behind him (who's likely a BETTER hitter than Ortiz) to provide for that ever-elusive "protection" in the lineup.

Chalk another one to the "baseball players can be dumb sometimes" theory.

Link to story

Req

OT: dominate

Requiem — Tue, 05 Sep 2006 05:27:43 -0000

Ok, I've seen it used on this site before....

But now I've seen it used on a poll at ESPN.com

Now, when the heck did dominate become an adjective?

I've looked at Merriam-Webster, Dictionary.com, and, heck, even UrbanDictionary.com and none of them references an adjective form for dominate.

Is this word usage occurring because people can't differentiate between a verb (dominate) and an adjective (dominant)?

It obviously can't be a misspelling of dominated, because that is pretty much the OPPOSITE meaning of dominant.

I don't get this.

Req

Potential really bad news....

Requiem — Sun, 03 Sep 2006 04:44:40 -0000

Rumblings: Clubs Notified that Draft Pick Compensation to be Dropped in Upcoming CBA

Link to story

snippet:

Ken Davidoff of Newsday reported just over a week ago that teams may no longer receive draft picks as compensation for free agents who leave as part of the upcoming CBA....

This would explain, in part, why Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee have been on the trading block. Both the Nationals and Rangers have been hot to try and get something for these two players before free agency forces both clubs to possibly walk away without anything for these two top players that were not dealt at the trading deadline.

If this is the case, it makes the Lee deal look quite a bit worse....

Req

Beane's A's in the 2nd half

Requiem — Fri, 01 Sep 2006 20:54:49 -0000

I remember some of us had a discussion about the A's and how well they'd do in the second half.

Here's a listing of the A's overall, 2nd half, August, and September records during Beane's tenure as GM:

Year Overall 2nd half August Sept
1998 74-88 33-43 15-15 11-13
1999 87-75 44-31 19-10 15-15
2000 91-70 43-32 11-16 22-7
2001 102-60 58-17 22-7 23-4
2002 103-59 53-21 24-4 18-8
2003 96-66 42-27 20-9 14-11
2004 91-71 44-32 20-8 13-18
2005 88-74 44-31 17-11 13-17
so far in
2006 77-56 32-13 21-6 0-0

Except for the first year of Beane's GMship, the A's have had a better record in the 2nd half than the 1st half.

They have been especially good in August (probably the hottest month) having very good months except for 1998 and 2000 (and even 1998's August was better than the rest of the season).

While I don't know why they do it or even if this run is based on something beside luck, I was expecting this outburst by the A's at the beginning of August, and, unfortunately, they delivered.

I have a couple of hypotheses of why they do so well in the 2nd half (and, specifically, in August).

Beane has stated the first 2 months are for assessing what you have. The next 2 months are for acquiring what you need. And the final 2 months are for those teams to finish off the season. I happen to think that Beane is one of the top 5 GMs in the game, and specifically in trades, he's been very good at getting precisely what he needed. If you look at it, August is the first month after the trade deadline. So, August is possibly the month where Beane finally has all the chips in place that he wants to let his team make a run.
Beane is excellent at acquiring cheap depth players for his teams. That depth doesn't really seem to show it's value until August when the fields are at their hottest and 4 months of nicks and scratches are starting to take their toll on most starters. Since the A's don't lose as much value going from their starters to their backups, they're able to do much better than teams which don't have that quality depth, and hence, their Augusts tend to be much better.
Since August is the hottest month and the A's usually do a good job of pre-habbing for injuries, their players are likely to be in better shape to handle the heat than other players. This hypothesis seems the weakest to me, but I just wanted to throw it out there since it seems plausible.

Basically, the A's being so good as they have for so long during the 2nd half and specifically August seems to me more than a fluke. And I wouldn't be surprised if it had to do more with the GM than the player, situation, or luck.

Unfortunately, as we are in the same division as Beane's A's, unless the Rangers can duplicate what the A's do in the 2nd half or build up a massive lead in the 1st half, I feel like the Rangers are going to have a lot of similar years to this one in the near future.

Req