SB Nation User Blog: Rick House

Farmers only, briefly

Rick House — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 05:56:18 -0000

Stubbs

The Bats got 4-hit and lost 3-0. ... Chris Valaika homered as Chattanooga rolled 12-4. ... Juan Francisco went 4 for 6 with a double and 3 RBIs in Sarasota's 12-5 win. Drew Stubbs was 3 for 4 with a homer and 4 RBIs, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey added 2 hits apiece and Justin Tordi had a 4-hit game. ... Devin Mesoraco doubled in Dayton's 3-2 loss. Zach Stewart allowed his first earned run as a professional and took the loss. ... Tony Brown was 2 for 5 with 3 RBIs in Billings' 5-4 loss. ... The GCL Reds managed just 3 hits and lost 5-2. ... The Dominican Reds played 2, winning 4-1 and 3-1. Miguel Rodriguez was 3 for 6 with 2 doubles, a triple and 4 RBIs on the day.

Walk-off Number 9

Rick House — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:14:46 -0000

David Kohl/AP

Number 9. Number 9. Number 9. Number 9...

Brandon Phillips kept up the good work, making tonight the ninth time this season the Reds earned a walk-off win. Highlights...

July 5: Brandon Phillips singles off Luis Ayala to score Jerry Hairston Jr. and beat the Nationals

Farmers only: Mainland teams go 7-0

Rick House — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:54:05 -0000

Maloney

I've been away for a few days, and as my time is stretched in different directions, these posts have grown more sparse. I have some things to take care of in the morning, so I would really like to extend the Farmer's only shutout streak. But it was an enormous day for the system, so I had to get a post up.

Triple-A: Matt Maloney struck out 7 in 5 innings and Michael Griffin doubled in 2 to give the Bats a 4-2 win. Maloney has struck out 28 in his past 4 starts and 100 overall in his 105 innings this season.

Double-A: Sean Henry had 2 doubles as the Lookouts won 5-4. Justin Turner added 2 hits, and Travis Wood allowed just 1 run in 6 innings.

Francisco

High A: Misael DeJesus struck out 9 in 7 innings as Sarasota rolled 5-0. He allowed 5 hits and no walks and has 56 strikeouts in 53.2 innings this season. Todd Frazier was 2 for 4, Drew Stubbs homered and both can be said for Juan Francisco. Francisco has 12 homers on the year. Ramon Geronimo got 4 outs to wrap up his 10th save, and he's got his ERA down to 0.70.

Low A: Logan Parker smacked a 3-run double and Kyle Lotzkar secured his first pro win as Dayton also won 5-0. Lotzkar -- the Reds' supplemental-round pick last season -- struck out 7 in 5 innings, allowing 3 hits and 1 walk. Devin Mesoraco was 1 for 4 for the 6th time in 9 games.

Rookie: Neftali Soto was 3 for 5 with a double, David Sappelt was a triple short of the cycle, Alex Buchholz added 2 hits and Lance Janke struck out 5 in 5 innings as Billings won 11-3. The Mustangs pounded out 17 hits. ... Yen-Wen Kuo was 4 for 4, Cody Puckett, Alexis Oliveras, Humberto Sosa and Efrain Contreras all had at least 2 hits and Evan Hildebrandt struck out 6 in 7 innings in the GCL Reds' blowout 12-0 win. Blaine Howell faced 6 batters and struck out 5. Hildebrandt has allowed 1 earned run in his 3 starts this season. ... The D-Reds lost 12-7 to make Reds teams (including Cincinnati) 7-1 on the day.

Cincinnati Reds: The Walk-off Collection

Rick House — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 06:45:11 -0000

Al Behrman/AP

Junior's shot was the Reds' first and only walk-off hit in June, although that has a lot to do with a 5-game home losing streak and two road trips of at least 8 games. Griffey is the first Red to hit two walk-off shots this season:

After the jump, a brief Farmer's Only...

Adam Rosales went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and a triple in Louisville's 12-8 win over Bryan Bullington and Indianapolis. Rosales is batting .441 over his past 8 games with 4 homers, 4 doubles and a triple. ... Sean Henry was 2 for 5 in Chattanooga's 4-3 win. ... Devin Mesoraco went 1 for 4 for the 7th time in the past 9 games as Dayton lost 6-2. Josh Ravin walked 8 in 3.1 innings. ... Neftali Soto (2 for 5, 2 RBIs) and Alex Buchholz (3 for 5, 2 doubles) led the way in Billings' 8-3 win. ... Juan Rafael struck out 7 in 6 innings during the GCL Reds' 6-0 win over the Red Sox.

Farmers only: The 4-strikeout inning

Rick House — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 06:13:54 -0000

Rosales

Triple-A: Boiling-hot Adam Rosales hit a 3-run homer to tie things up in the 9th, and the Bats got 4 runs in the 11th and held on to win 10-8. Rosales has 11 RBIs and 11 hits in his past 6 games, including 4 homers and 2 doubles. Josh Roenicke struck out 2 in his inning for the win.

Double-A: Chris Valaika went 2 for 5 with a double in Chattanooga's 11-9 loss. Justin Turner and Tonys Gutierrez also had 2 hits, and Sean Henry had 3 to raise his average to .303. Jordan Smith gave up 9 runs.

Gonzalez

High A: Todd Frazier was 3 for 4 and Chris Heisey 4 for 5 in Sarasota's 6-0 win. Frazier is 9 for 15 in his past 3 games. Drew Stubbs and Juan Francisco had 2 hits each, and Misael DeJesus allowed just 3 hits in 7 innings.

Low A: Logan Parker (8), Brandon Menchaca (3) and Angel Cabrera (1) homered in Dayton's 11-4 win. Devin Mesoraco went 1 for 4 for the 6th time in his last 10 games, and Brandon Waring went 0 for 2 to end his 13-game hitting streak.

Rookies: Alex Buchholz was 2 for 5 in Billing's 4-2 win. Aguido Gonzalez got the win after striking out 4 in the 8th inning. ... Frank Pfister was 2 for 4 with a double as the GCL Reds won 2-1. ... Miiguel Rodriguez went 3 for 7 in the D-Reds' 14-inning loss.

Game 82: Reds at Indians

Rick House — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 21:44:49 -0000

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Cleveland Indians

Saturday, Jun 28, 2008, 7:05 PM EDT
Jacobs Field

Johnny Cueto vs Paul Byrd

Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.

Complete Coverage >

Lineup, via Shannon Russell:

1. Jerry Hairston Jr. SS
2. Adam Dunn DH
3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
4. Brandon Phillips 2B
5. Joey Votto 1B
6. Jeff Keppinger 3B
7. Jay Bruce LF
8. Corey Patterson CF
9. Paul Bako C

Johnny Cueto P

Game 81: Reds at Indians

Rick House — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 18:48:12 -0000

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Cleveland Indians

Friday, Jun 27, 2008, 7:05 PM EDT
Jacobs Field

Daryl Thompson vs C.C. Sabathia

Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Daryl Thompson	0-0	0.00	1.60	2	4

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - C.C. Sabathia	5-8	4.06	1.28	107	30

Although Thompson could have kept the walks down last time out, you can't improve on the result. I'd like to see him set up his changeup with that wicked fastball. Both of those pitches impressed me a lot last time, and it seemed like he got in trouble when he hung breaking pitches up there.

Go Reds.

Farmers only walk-off smacks

Rick House — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 06:53:12 -0000

Shortstop Zach Cozart is creeping up the OPS ladder. He's now sporting a .481 SLG, boosint his OPS to .805. Nothing to write home about, but he's tearing the cover off the ball lately. He has 9 hits in the past 6 games, including 3 home runs and 3 doubles. He was our 2nd-round pick out of Mississippi last season and is rated the Reds' No. 18 prospect by Baseball America. Cozart is 22.

Cozart

Triple-A: Josh Fogg threw his first rehab game for Louisville, going a complete game and allowing 10 hits in a 4-1 loss. Fogg struck out 6.

Double-A: Chris Valaika was 1 for 4 with a homer in Chattanooga's 6-4 loss. It was Valaika's 5th homer in Chattanooga and 12th overall this season. Carlos Fisher struck out 4 in 2 relief innings.

High A: Todd Frazier was 4 for 5 with a double in Sarasota's 6-1 loss. Ramon Geronimo threw another scoreless inning, leaving him with an 0.82 ERA in 33 innings this season. Check him out.

Low A: Zach Cozart launched his 9th homer of the season, a walk-off shot in the 10th to give Dayton the 2-1 win. Zach Stewart -- our 3rd-round pick in the draft this year -- allowed his first hit as a pro but went 2 scoreless innings for his first win. Brandon Waring extended his hitting streak to 12 games.

Rookie: Neftali Soto was 0 for 4 in Billings' 5-4 loss. ... Shea Showden allowed just 1 hit in 6 innings in the GCL Reds' 9-3 win. He's 2-0. ... Juan Duran was 2 for 4 with a double in the D-Reds' 6-3 win. And put 20-year-old Juan Aquino on prospect watch. He struck out 8 with no walks in 6 innings to improve to 3-0. He's struck out 29 and walked 2 in 20 innings this season for a 1.35 ERA. Maybe it's time for a trip to the States?

Game 80: Reds at Blue Jays

Rick House — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:18:40 -0000

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Toronto Blue Jays

Thursday, Jun 26, 2008, 7:07 PM EDT
Rogers Centre

Edinson Volquez vs Jesse Litsch

Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from left to right field at 10-20 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Edinson Volquez	10-2	1.71	1.17	110	45

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Jesse Litsch	7-4	4.06	1.28	46	14

This season is turning scary for me, because now my main preoccupation is rooting for great individual seasons by some of my favorite players. I hold my breath every time Jay Bruce comes to the plate, I hope for big things from Joey Votto, and I especially wish for Edinson to continue what is thus far a historic season. I know he can't keep up his 261 ERA+, his 1.71 ERA or his 10.42 K/9 rate, but I watch all of his starts in suspense, just hoping he can keep keeping guys from crossing the plate.

If he can do that tonight, the Reds will leave town with back-to-back series wins over AL East teams, which would be very nice as we head to Cleveland. I'd also like to see Adam Dunn get some comeuppance in his feud with J.P. Ricciardi.

So go Reds.

[Note from Slyde: If you get a chance, check out the new features in Gameday. You can new view the pitch trajectory in 3 dimensions. Awesome!]

As of today, we're winning The Big Trade: Why the Reds are better off with Volquez than with Hamilton

Rick House — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 04:02:27 -0000

When the Reds traded Josh Hamilton to the Texas Rangers in December, it was hardly a blockbuster deal. Hamilton was a reformed addict with fewer than 300 major league at-bats, and Volquez was an erratic young flamethrower with a 3-11 career record. A trade of potential, sure, but certainly not a trade of stars.

Tony Gutierrez/AP (Hamilton), Getty Images (Volquez)

Now that Hamilton is the leading candidate for AL MVP and Volquez is the leading candidate for NL Cy Young, it looks like the biggest trade of the past year. Conventional wisdom says that both teams profited from the swap, and given the great luck both guys have had, I agree with that. But curiosity is probably leading many of you to wonder if the Reds made the right move; indeed, I've read several comments pondering what the team would look like if we still had Hobbs.

So I set out to learn how good the Reds would be had The Big Trade never happened. What I found, if you'll indulge me after the jump, is that we're better off with the stud we have than the stud we had. Part of the reason is, as The Hardball Times says, "A run saved is not equal to a run scored." The other part of the reason is the pitchers we have to replace Volquez wouldn't be doing a lot of run-saving. Meet me after the jump...

First, know that this is my best shot, but it's just a layman's try. If I were Slyde, I'd use some gussied-up spreadsheets and calculate my own statistics, but I'm not Slyde and I have to steal stuff. With permission, of course.

I'm operating under a few assumptions:

Hamilton and Volquez would have had the exact same seasons they had up to this point for their original clubs. This is a totally unreasonable assumption, but it's the only way to compare them.
The Reds would not have called up Jay Bruce and would not have signed Corey Patterson. The latter is the most pleasant aspect of the scenario.
Volquez's innings would have been absorbed by Homer Bailey and Josh Fogg. This causes some problems, which I'll discuss in a second.

What you know: Volquez leads the majors in ERA (1.71) and strikeouts (110) and is second in the NL in wins (10). Hamilton leads the world in RBIs (76) and is first in the AL in home runs (19).

But I wanted to use more substantial (and comparable) statistics. I decided on TV (total value) for the position players and RAR (runs above replacement) for pitchers, as calculated by Justin Inaz (JinAZ of On Baseball and the Reds). Justin also helped me out with some commentary. TV takes into account fielding and hitting and is park-adjusted. RAR is also park-adjusted. I chose not use FIPRAR, which factors in defense behind a pitcher and luck. I figure we're already discounting luck with the first assumption, and the Reds' defense is only hurting Volquez.

As far as matching up the innings, the players are fairly interchangeable. Corey Patterson and Jay Bruce have combined for 307 plate appearances, and Hamilton has been to the dish 338 times. The other 31 PAs are fairly negligible.

That's the easy part. Bruce and Patterson have combined for a TV of 5 runs (7.2 for Bruce, -2.2 for Patterson). Hamilton's TV is 27. We would likely have scored an extra 22 runs with Hobbs in our lineup this season.

	PAs	TV
Patterson	191	-(-2.2)
Bruce	116	-(7.2)
Hamilton	338	+26.8
Net		+21.8

As I alluded to earlier, Norris Hopper (-.6) and Ryan Freel (.6) net out to exactly replacement level, so I'm not too concerned about the 31-plate-appearance difference between Hamilton and our guys. If Hamilton got his 338 cuts with the Reds, he'd be taking the last 31 from a replacement player.

The pitching is where things get dicey. Volquez has racked up an astounding 32.3 runs above average, or equal to Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Jared Burton, Bill Bray, Daryl Thompson and Mike Lincoln combined (Nos. 2-8 in RAR, as relievers are weighted differently). I wanted to assume Volquez's innings would be transferred to a Josh Fogg-Homer Bailey platoon. The problem, I found, is that Fogg and Bailey have been so bad in such a small sample size. Here's what the breakdown would look like if they each took on another 47.5 innings:

	IP	RAR	RAR/IP	Proj. RAR
Fogg	28.3	-9.4	-.332	-15.76
Bailey	12.3	-6.2	-.504	-23.94
Volquez	95	32.3	.340	(-32.3)
Net				-72

If this were the result, the Reds would have by this point scored 360 runs but allowed 465, which would amount to about 29.6 wins (.375 winning percentage). The Reds are playing about 2.5 games above their expected total, so I'll add 2.5 to any win tally. So if Homer and Fogg played the way they've played to this point in the season over Volquez's innings, using a rough pythag the Reds would be at 32-47, a full 4 games worse than their current 36-43 record.

Homer Bailey has struggled this season,
making Edinson Volquez much more
valuable to the Reds. (Tony Tribble/AP)

I don't think that's a fair assumption, though. For one, Fogg and Homer would have to eventually at least regress (progress?) toward the mean (replacement-level). Even if they wouldn't, there's no way management would let them pitch at those ridiculous levels, and they would soon be replaced with someone who can offer replacement-level numbers (Thompson, Maloney, Affeldt, a FA signing, etc.)

Of course, there's always the possibility that Daryl Thompson would have won the Reds' fifth spot and succeeded, but we can't glean anything statistically from one major league start.

If I sub in a net-zero player -- essentially eliminating the 40 negative runs Fogg and Bailey would have offered -- we would allow only 425 runs, or 32 more than actual. That would equate to only half a win less than actual, or 35-36 wins.

But that's probably an unfair assumption, too. Harang (8.8 RAR) and Cueto (5.1) have pitched above replacement, but Arroyo (-3.2) and Belisle (-4.9) have not. Belisle would probably be the third option and might provide some mitigation. His -4.9 RAR have come in 29.7 innings, or -.165 RAR/IP -- considerably bad, but only half as bad as Fogg and a quarter as bad as Bailey. If I pro-rate Belisle's season to cover Volquez's innings, the Reds allow 441 runs, which would make a 34-45 record (.400 WP). (Remember, the Reds are outplaying their expected win-loss total by about 2.5 games, so that number is added to all projected win totals.)

	RS	RA	(Proj.) wins
2008 Reds (actual)	338	393	36
2008 Reds (Bailey, Fogg)	360	465	32
2008 Reds (Belisle)	360	341	34
2008 Reds (Replacement-level)	360	425	35.5

So even though their value numbers are similar (32 RAR for Volquez, 27 TV for Hamilton), there is a growing disparity between their real values for the Reds. And that's not all that abnormal. It has something to do with the number zero: A great pitcher can only allow about five runs a game less than average, but a lineup can score an infinite number of runs. Put another way, the difference between a terrible hitter and a great hitter is much less than the difference between a terrible pitcher and a great pitcher. Or, according to this 2006 article in The Hardball Times,

Let’s say a team allows one run per game while scoring five. How often are they expected to win? About 93.4% of the time, actually. See how quickly I came up with that answer? It just inspires confidence, doesn’t it? Okay, so here’s the follow-up: How many runs would a team that allows five runs a game need to score to win 93.4% of the time? The answer is about 15.4.

And here’s the point of that: A run saved is not equal to a run scored. Keep that in mind, because it’s important.

::snip::

The thing is, as shown in the example above, that baseline isn’t really the same thing. A pitcher who allows one run per game is exactly as valuable as a lineup that scores 15.4, but if we looked at runs above average (assuming that an average team scores/allows five runs a game), the pitcher would only be four Runs Above Average, while the lineup would be 9.4 RAA. The offense comes out looking 235% better, despite actually having an equivalent output. Obviously, that’s a problem.

There's also a pesky fact that hasn't been discussed much: Josh Hamilton hasn't been quite as good as his RBI total suggests. Queue Justin Inaz:

Hamilton's having a great year, but I think his performance has been overhyped a bit because of his amazing/lucky/team-based RBI totals. A 0.946 OPS is really good, but it's not mind-blowing, especially in Texas' ballpark. He also hasn't been very good in the field by "my" ratings (ZR and RZR) or by mgl's UZR. The latter might be a small sample size issue, but even last year we knew that he was clearly better suited for RF than CF.

Dunn's been more or less Hamilton's equal offensively once you consider park and league differences. And Milton Bradley's having a better year at the plate than Josh (in fewer PA's), but because his RBIs are lower, few are noticing.

Hamilton's doing it with the stats that get you MVP votes, but his rawer numbers aren't other-worldly. This isn't a criticism of him; he's still one of my favorite players, and he's having a terrific year. But he wouldn't be en route to 150 RBIs in an average lineup with an average number of RBI opportunities.

Notes: This is only an analysis of this season, which inherently means I'm not dealing with large sample sizes. This post is not intended to evaluate their career paths or determine who is the better player. Also, Daniel Ray Herrera was included in the deal and has pitched 3 innings for the Reds. I ignored him, even though he accounted for a -1 RAR. And thanks again to Justin for all his help. His Web site is an amazing place if you like to be absorbed in real Reds information.

[Note by Rick House, 06/26/08 4:12 PM EDT ]: Thanks to C. Trent, John Fay and Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors for linking to the post.