In spite of defeating Miami in a come-back win,  down 6 with a minute and half left, most sportswriters still think that in the grand scheme of the NBA playoffs this occurrence means nothing. Instead of giving the Sixers credit, they are saying that Miami has had problems all season closing teams out, when they needed a bucket or two at the end of close games.

While this is true, it's also a convenient excuse and it allows them to continue to believe that the Heat are the better team and the Sixers still  have no chance. Good teams are the ones who beat other good teams and that includes being tough at the end. Early in the year the Sixers were appallingly bad at this, which is why I thought the teams only chance against Miaimi was to outscore them and go into the end of games well ahead.

This comeback was huge because it came from unexpected places. Holliday all of 20 years old shoot a three ball with the team down 4 points. That shocked the whole arena and Miami itself. Miami couldn't respond on the other end to answer that score, and it wasn't for trying. The Sixers defense actually dug in and shut them down! Then Williams came down the floor with the ball, not Andre. He looked over the defense and saw that the Heat had everyone covered, with D. Wade guarding.  The three he shot was a dagger right at the Heat and it altered the game and possibly the series. BTW GIVE DOUG COLLINS HUGE CREDIT FOR NOT CALLING A TIME OUT, ALLOWING THE TEAM TO GET RIGHT BACK TO OFFENSE and ensuring Miami would have to scramble! Evan Turner came up with LeBron's missed shot and held on to get fouled. This was a convincing win, outplaying Miami on both ends of the floor.

It was one thing to think they could beat the Miami Heat, quite another to actually do it and outplay them at the end. Now that they have done it the Sixers realize it's not just fantasy. They are good enough to win, and they have reason to be confident having done it in crunch time in the playoffs.  Now, it's just a matter of the rest of league recognizing how good the Sixers are, and give them some respect. That won't happen unless the Sixers win Wednesday in Miami.

It's also important to remember that the Sixers have yet to have a good game from everyone. Thad hasn't contributed in the last 2 games. Iguodala finally had a good offensive game. The Sixers can still play even better than they did yesterday.

When the Sixers first got Brand he was labeled all sorts of things, when the only thing wrong with him was that he was hurt. Eddie Jordan actually pushed him to the 2nd team. Stefanski was highly critcized for this move, but now that the team is successful, no one is talking about Elton.

I thought he would be the most loved Sixer by now. He shows up every night, he plays hurt doesn't complain and acts like a complete Professional. He is an East Coaster, and the Sixers are very fortunate to have him. He's made to play out of position and guards people bigger than he without making excuses or backing down.

No one even talks about him during the game chats.  I don't get it, the only thing that Brand doesn't do is open his mouth, but he is clearly a leader on the floor and sets a great example with his work ethic and effort.

Elton is becoming my favorite Sixer for a lot of reasons.  I'd rather see a post about him than another one about Evan Turner. Maybe some of you posters might stop sniffing his jock for a minute to talk about a real player, and the Sixers most solid performer.

When it comes to comparing teams, I like raw stats, like the Points per game and the number surendered to the other team.  The scoring differential, over time usually points out who the best team really is. Of course, these numbers aren't the end all and be all of evaluation. It's one thing to beat up on NBA rank and file teams, and another to be able to take out Elite teams. Further the numbers are in constant flux as no team is the same or employees the same strategy all the time, not to mention injuries, vagaries of the schedule and so on.

So how do you evaluate a team that is moving up in these rankings? In the case of the Sixers only two weeks ago their scoring differential had them ranked 16th. A pure, middling team, not playoff worthy. But as of today, the Sixers are now ranked 11th in scoring differential, which means that they are in the top 3rd in the NBA.

Above is a list from NBA.com ordered by the scoring differential.  As can easilly be seen, the Sixers are in a dead heat with Memphis and Atlanta in the rankings, and  their is a fairly large gap between them and Oklahoma City. Winning their games by an average of 1.33 should start to translate into more wins a team with a scoring differential of 0 is about a .500 team.

Still there is an even clearer difference between the Sixers and the real Elite teams, which typically win by a margin of 5 points or better.  Of these San Antonio is 2nd, with a differential of 7.25 points. When a team like this, which typically beats the teams beneath them by a good margin, it demonstrates their prowess on both ends of the floor. But when a team with a lower ranking beats them, and actually outplays them in a game, it's time to take notice.

A win over an elite team like the Spurs suggests the Sixers are better than their current ranking. The numbers are always trying to catch up to the reality as the team improves over time.

So how good are the Sixers right now? It's impossible to say, but they are better than the 11th best team. The win over Atlanta which is virtually equal in scoring differential showed that. The scoring differential predicted a relatively close contest, not the blowout win by the Sixers.

It is relatively easy to see a teams flaws, more so when other teams continue to exploit them game after game, but in these past few weeks the Sixers have changed. They don't make the same mistakes they used to, and they have learned how to maintain their composure when the games get tough.

It's nice to see the Sixers become relevant again, and the numbers show it's not just a subjective view.  This is a great turnaround from last season and Collins should be in the running for COY, because he has done it with a lot of hard work and with a little less size in the middle since Dalembert for all his faults is better than anyone on the current roster.

Keep paying attention to this scoring differential and tell the sportwriters who create power rankings that their opinions don't jibe with the facts. The Sixers are better than their record and are improving rapidly at time when many teams are taking it easy cruising into All-Star weekend. The teams that are winning now are the ones to watch out for, and that includes the Sixers.

As of this writing the Sixers are in the 7th spot in the East and would match-up with Miami in the first round of the playoffs if the season were to end today. They are 3 full games behind the Knicks, but have a better scoring differential and a better recent record. They are only 2 games ahead of Indiana, which is currently in the 9th spot. Thus right now the Sixers are closer to being out of the playoffs than catching the Knicks.

Heading into the playoffs should be a conscious choice. The Sixers shouldn't just let it happen unless it fits in with their long-term strategic plan, which is to win a Championship or three.

In spite of their recent improvement, we shouldn't have any illusions about their potential this season. Their inability to win close games says that they're not a smart team, or one with the chops to win a tight contest. The teams that win consistently are good in close games, they know how to attack the basket and force turnovers when the pressure is on. This takes confidence, a trust in your team-mates and a plan.

This team still lacks a go-to player that the offense can revolve around. It is the greatest disappointment that such a player hasn't been found, because it appears there is one, if only the coach would give him the minutes.

If Speights were to get 35 min. a game, a couple of things would happen, the team would score a few more points because Mo would be taking them instead of Hawes and the others, and his higher shooting percentage would push up their average. They would also probably give up another bucket or two as a result of his less than stellar defense, but this isn't a problem if it is offset by increased scoring.

I rate teams based on their point differential, that is the difference between their average score and the average of the teams opponents. Over time, this is the best way to gauge a teams actual strength as I believe it shows up in the score. Right now Miami is the best team, based on their differential, at 7.7 points a game. Boston, San Antonio and LA are right behind them and only a point per contest separates them all. This pretty much makes it a dead heat between these four teams for the title, with Chicago and Orlando also putting up respectable point differentials.

Our Sixers are currently the 13th best team in the NBA with a + .6 per contest, just ahead of Utah and New York with .3 averages and .8 of a point behind the 12th best team,  Memphis.

A difference of .3 per game isn't significant enough to say conclusively that the Sixers are better than Utah or New York. Such a difference could be explained by the difference in opponents. It looks like on balance the East is the better conference this season, and therefore a harder schedule for the Knicks and Sixers than the Jazz. Right now it's clear that Memphis is a bit better than the Sixers, and improving their differential by a point or more would be very significant.

My guess is that by playing Speights more we get enough of a boost on offense that our scoring differential would increase by over a point, which is really a significant increase. Because a number of our games were close losses, I also think that playing Speights more would put us on the winning side of those scores.

Remember, there is a big difference between what a team scores and surrenders against the league average and playoff teams. Under these conditions all teams perform somewhat worse then their average, showing that their is an effect on both the offense and defense. The teams that can perform well against the better defensive teams are the ones to watch out for in the playoffs.

Basically there are two ways to win, Outscore your opponent, or hold him to a lower score than you. In both cases, the end result is your team scoring more points. In one scenario, you are trying to score every time down the floor and score quickly, more or less running away from your opponent and putting pressure on them to try and keep up with you. Some teams aren't built to score a lot of points, and this can turn a game where you would normally be at a disadvantage into a win because your team can overwhelm their defense.   The other way to win is stopping the other team from scoring. You do that by limiting shots, not allowing 2nd or third chance possessions, and stealing the ball. No team can win without making it a bit tougher than normal for the other team to score. But good strategy is to play the game that emphasizes your strengths on hides your deficiencies!

The best way to value a player is to see how he affects both your offense and defense together. If the team scores more as a result and gives up more as well, the question is by how much. I would think that Speighs would give the team enough of a boost that their average would be above 100, instead of 97.77, and while I also think other teams might score a bit more they would still end up scoring less than 100 on average.

The Sixers can still make or miss the playoffs so they still have time to figure out which is in their best interests. The new deal is pretty much killing big trades IMO, so if they're going to get better it will have to be by a new draft pick. I want to see how much better or worse Speights makes the team by getting significant minutes. This is really the only major question I have about this team.

I'm almost certain he would make the team better, but I'm not sure how much. Yes, the Sixers can make the playoffs, but if they can't win even by playing Speights all the minutes he can handle, it's better to go for a good pick. I don't think he's enough to make us better than the elite teams, but enough that with another good Center we could compete. If we do anything this season, it should be to see what is possible with who we have. If that causes us to make the playoffs, I'd live with it, but if I'm right about their potential, then they should conspire to lose.

I just wanted to take the pulse of the board and see what everyone is thinking. I'm keeping the poll open for a full week, so that recent games can influence your decision if you haven't made up your mind. Whatever your view, understand that I want what I think is best for the team in the long run. I hope that you share that sentiment.

My spin after the jump

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I was very much in favor of bringing in Doug Collins to coach the team. He had a lot of good qualities that I thought would work well with the young, athletic Sixers. He understands the game and offensive and defensive theory. He's really a decent X and O coach.  He has a concept of what it takes to win ball games and how to assemble a team.

My problem is that he's not a good strategic thinker. He doesn't seem to be able to identify and exploit weaknesses on the other team. He doesn't work to create match-ups that favor his players or seem concerned with floor balance, between rebounders/inside players and outside players.  I think it is a strength of the Sixers that they have a number of different style players and that they can find favorable match-ups most night that take advantage of their superior athleticism.

Right now there is a disagreement over whether to take a dive this season in order to get a better draft pick, or try to see if the team is capable of making the playoffs even if it would be a quick out.  To my way of thinking, the draft pick is better, simply because I assume the team is incapable of making a deep playoff run as they are now.

All this brings me to how the team should be coached now:  It is a bad thing to assume that your team can't compete without exhausting all possibilities. We have seen this with the Sixers over the course of the season. Thad Young and Jodi Meeks were bench players- deep on the bench. Spencer Hawes was getting 20 min. a night of less. Jason Kapono was starting. This wasn't working so Doug started searching for something else. He finally figured out that Young was a better choice than Kapono, Nocioni, or Turner. He figured out that Jodi Meeks was a better outside shot and could spread the floor. (A very important piece)

With all these improvements I now think the team is closer to it's potential, and there's really only one stone left to turn over: Mareese Speights. I have said this since the beginning and everyone's response is that Speights sucks. I say maybe he does, and maybe he doesn't. I'm not the only one who seems to think he has real potential. All of this is irrelevant! What is relevant is that the Sixers are deficient when it comes to rebounding and inside scoring, and that the only player left on the roster who could make a difference is Speights. 

If we do anything else this season, we have to determine if he can play and contribute or not! If he makes the team worse, that is good for Mission B.J. and if he makes the team better, it changes my view on whether we can really compete or not.  In either case this is a no-brainer: You have to play him to know what you have. At worst you get the better draft pick and know to get rid of him.  At best you find yourself in legitimate playoff contention. Both are better than where we are now. In between, we also create a FA market for Speights and get some value for him in a trade.

This is not about whether the team will make the playoffs or not, rather it is an attempt to rank them by a statistical measure to establish some objectivity about the team, beyond the win/loss record.

I personally have always used the scoring differential, that is the difference between the teams average score per game vs. how much they concede to the other team.  Over time I have observed that the teams who win by the largest margin game in and out are the best, and the NBA champion is quite often the one with the best point differential.

Although a good predictor, it isn't perfect, and I didn't expect it to be. Some teams rest their players more, their eyes on the playoffs. The data comes from play against all teams, not just the playoff-bound ones.

Right now the Sixers are 1-4, only 5 games into the season, so the statistical sample is small. The NBA.com page allows you to see all the teams and make comparisons based on the difference between their offensive and defensive performance. Based on these numbers the Sixers are about 15th in the league, having a negative score of .20 points per game.  A score of 0 would mean they were a .500 team so they are really very close.

The team continues to improve game over game, and it seems likely that this will start to translate into wins. Even though they aren't built to compete, a lot of other teams have even worse flaws, and the Sixers will play them about as often as they do teams that are more complete.

Right now, the trend for the Sixers is up. They are playing and competing like a team. The concern is what is their true potential given who they have. They appear close to being a playoff team to me, and I expect that to start to show up in the win column.

The Sixers haven't been a team known for running plays over the past few seasons. Since Larry Brown left, the Sixers have gone through a number of coaches and while at times they have produced results like a near .500 record, they have been a listless franchise, never getting consistent results on the court and never what one would call winning basketball.

In the past I have been vocal in my dissappointment about the coaching. Mo Cheeks didn't teach and neither did Tony Dileo. Eddie Jordan was a complete idiot and made the team worse last season by abandoning any kind of offense or even a consistent rotation.

This season is different, because Doug Collins is a real departure from the previous coaches. He actually understands the game, knows what it takes to win and how to teach NBA players to play the right way.  After last season, the players know that the blame is either with them or the ex coach, and if they can win this season, everyone will realize why last season was so bad.  They also learned that losing sucks and playing in an empty building is depressing.

All the players are motivated to learn and Doug is determined to teach. All the articles in the paper are about Doug making the team work on their offensive sets and how to set a proper pick. The team is struggling because all of this is unfamilliar- can you imagine an NBA team that doesn't know how to execute a proper pick and roll?

This is why the Sixers can't score in a half-court. They don't understand how to work as a team to get each other open!  I'm being a little cute with my opening title. The players will learn or Doug will cut them, IMO. It's as simple as that.

They have to, since if they don't learn they will continue to be a bad team.  I know that Doug knows how the plays should work down to the most minute detail. Precise spacing is so important, and so is moving at the right time. Fans take this stuff for granted, but there are fewer and fewer coaches that rely on fundamentals and the players only learn it if they're exposed to it.

I was thrilled when thy got Doug Collins, because he is a teaching coach, and exactly what the Sixers needed. Depending on the aptitude of the players, this may take a while.  When they realize it will help their shooting percentage because they get the same open shot, time after time, they'll become even more enthused. It is simply a matter of time, and it will make the Sixers more interesting to watch, because you will see them grow as a team.

This post is simply to discuss the players involved and the competition for minutes. It is my contention that the strength of the team is with the four guards, and Thad Young and that as time goes on Turner's emergence will come at the expense of the small forwards.

The players excluding Iguodala are: Thad Young, Jason Kapono, Andres Nocioni and Darius Songalia. Collins had a quote where he justified playing Andre at the two to make time for Young and Nocioni to be on the floor. But when I looked at the numbers for Nocioni and Songalia and Kapnono, I realized I was looking at 3 slow, white guys!

Songalia's numbers are the best out of all of them, but even with last year's disappointing figures, it's clear Young is in a class by himself. So watch how and where Collins uses Turner and whether or not he is on the floor with Andre and Jrue at the same time. This is really a two headed team, now. We have a fast group with Holiday, Iguodala, Young, Speights and Hawes, and a slow group with Williams and Turner teaming up with Songalia, Brand and a Center. This gives Collins the ability to put a lot of different looks on the floor and hopefully keep teams off-balance.

In order to prove my point, I went back through every loss that the Sixers have had since the regular season started.  In order to prove that the problem is with scoring, all did was look at the by quarter score for each game. If I found that in each loss that the Sixers underperformed that would prove my point.

What I mean by underperformance is relative, since each game is different and has a different pace. On average an NBA team scores 100 points, some score higher and others score less but the mean is 100. Therefore, 25 points for quarter is considered to be an average score. Underperformance means a significantly lower score than 25. 

When I looked at the data, I found that in every game the Sixers lost they had at least one underperforming quarter. In the case of the Sixers every loss included one quarter where they managed no better than 22 points.  3 points off doesn't seem like a lot but that turns out to be a 12 point loss over a full game. If you score 25, 25, 25, 22 your total is 97, if your opponent scores 25, 25, 25, 25 then your team scored 3 less. In that instance you should blame offense for the loss, not the ability to hold the other team down to your inferior production!

Conversely I also looked for any outlier scores above 25 for the other team, which would provide evidence of a defensive let down. While some teams did score more than 25, so did the Sixers, and the scores ended up over 100 for both teams. There was very little evidence to suggest that the Sixers defense is so bad that this is the reason for their losses.

Another thing that the data suggested was that the Sixers were a competitive team. Many times they were ahead at the half and is some instances by large margins. This was not completely consistent- although most of the losses were a result of a second half meltdown in some instances the team got off to a bad start.  My conclusion is that the coaches player decisions have to be responsible, since in most instances the Sixers were able to score competitively at some point in the game.

Below is the data, gathered from NBA.com,  I provided the score and noted which was the Sixers worst scoring quarter and when it occurred.

10-28      Orlando   120  106   2nd Quarter 41 to 20. In 4th Quarter Phila. 37 Orlando 20

11-03      Boston   105   74   All quarters were below 21 pts. All of Boston's were above except

the 1st.
11-08      Detroit  88   81   All quarters 22 points or less, Detroit won 3 of 4 quarters.

11-09      Phoenix 119  115   In spite of it being a high scoring game the Sixers managed 20

points in the 3rd, surenduring all but 2 of their 12 point lead.
11-13      Utah    112   90   Won the 1st Quarter. 18 and 19 and 21 scored in final 3q's.

11-14      Chicago  94   88   2nd & 3rd, 18, 18. lost 3rd by 5, and 4th by 2 nd half failure.

11-20      Memphis 102   97   Ahead 50-49 at half. 21-29 in the 3rd, Phila. regained a bucket in

4th. 2nd half failure.
11-21      Cleveland 97  91   Ahead 81 to 75 at end of third, score 10 points to 22 in the 4th.

4th Q. failure.
11-24      Washingtn 108 107   Close game, outscored 40-29 in the 3rd. Came back 9 in the 4th.

Very bad pshycholigcal loss since a win was expected, set up by failure in 3rd.
11-25      Boston   113  110   Sixers were in this one all the way, outscored by 9 in the 4th to

lose by 3.
11-27      Atlanta 100   86   2 poor quarters, 2nd and 4th. 18, 20. Outscored in 3rd and 4th by 4

and 5.
11-29      San Ant. 97   89   19 in the 4th but ouscored SA by 1. Wrst quarter was 2nd, 29-22.

SA.
11-30       Dallas  104  102   20-29 in 2nd quarter. Phila. won 2nd half 59-47. 43 points in the

first half to 57 for Dallas was just enough. Atypical.
12-02      OKC   117  106   Sixers worst offensive quarter was 2nd, 22-25 worst defensive was

34-27 in the third.  Ahead 55-54 at half.

12-05      Charlott106  105   Behind by 1 end of the half. 19-28 in the 4th.

12-07      Denver   93   83   Only decent quarter was the first, 26. Worst output was the 4th 18

pts, against Dever's best 30. 4th quarter failure.

12-09      Detroit  90   86   16 point first quarter. They lost the 3rd. 25-21, the difference in

the game.

12-11      Houston  91   96   13 pts. to 28 for Houston in the third.

Losing streak ends.

12-16      Cleveland108 101   21-25 in the 4th quarter. Sixers won the 2nd by 1. Trailed by 6 at

the half.

12-19      LAC      112 107   18-30 Clippers in the first. Never looked back.

12-22      Wash     105  98   19-33 in the 4th.

12-26      Utah      97  76   12-25 in the 4th. Sixers scored 39 pts. in the first half. And got

worse!
12-31      LAC    104  88   14-29 in the 3rd. Ahead by 2 at the half.

01-05      Wash    104  97   17-26 in the 4th. Ahead by 14 at the half.

01-08      Toronto  108 106   21-25 in the 4th. In spite of being in it the whole game, they got

outscored in the end. Ahead 60-40 at the half.
   
01-13      NY     93  92   24-25 in the 4th. Same failure, just a smaller advantage because

the Knicks are a bad team.
01-18      Minn.    108 103   18-33 in the 3rd. 57-40 Sixers at the half.

01-20      Portland  98  90   Portland won every quarter, xcept the 3rd. 22-27 in the 4th.

Every good team has one, a player that they can ride for three or four straight baskets. The kind of performance that bothers the other coach so much that they have to call time-out. A player who can take over a game.

If the Sixers have that player, he's not being given the opportunity. I thought Elton Brand was that player, and he may still be, but he's not putting up 20 and 10 getting 26 min. a game. Thad young can score a lot of points, but he dissapears a lot of the time. Start Elton and put Thad at the 3 and we have a much better team, being a three gives Thad the space to operate and use his speed.  Iguodala seems like the choice. He's good on both ends of the floor but not quite good enough. He misses too many outside shots and his energy is inconsistent. He handles the ball for 5 straight possessions and then doesn't even touch it.

Speights is the other player that has a chance. He has all the talent in the world. On offense he has natural instincts, good hands and above average range. He needs to work harder if he wants to make three's at a reasonable rate, but I want him down low, making shots and drawing fouls. We will never know if Speights doesn't get 25 min. a game. This is his 2nd season and he should be able to contribute and we have a definite need.  Eddie tried to use him at the end and it didn't work one time. That doesn't mean you give up.

So do we have a go to player, or is this something the team lacks?

As a Sixer fan it's hard to be happy with the team.  We had hopes at the beginning for a winning season, building on last season's success. Instead we have an idiot coach. Injuries and losses.  I found Pete Carril, the father of the Princeton Offenses comments interesting. He said he thought the Sixers needed a point guard to run it a direct contradiction from Eddie Jordan's thoughts.

So now what do we want? Is the season lost and should we want to get a good draft pick or make the playoffs?

And if we do make the playoffs, what are your expectations, and what would make it a successful season or a bad one?

My view is that the season is not lost.  Although my target of 50 games is almost out of reach, every other objective, including 4th seed is still in play. The only team I'm really concerned with avoiding is Cleveland. Until we play that team and beat them, they are a team we should avoid an early round seeding against.

Right now the Sixers have the chance to make up some ground. They blew it a bit, by losing games to Washington and LA, but their upcoming schedule is the Clippers, Denver, Washington, Toronto, Detroit, NO, and NY. All of these games except the Denver game should be wins.  If they can go 6-1 over these next seven games things will start looking up.

Now, however, there is the additional problem of a bad coach. Even if the Sixers win I still want this guy gone. Winning makes this less likely.  Like I said, it's hard to be a Sixers fan.