The Reds are still up 1.5 games in the NL Central, which is a 2012 record for most games leading the division by a team from Cincinnati. Still, at the end of May, 1.5 might as well be zero. Fans should be glad the Reds are showing every indication they'll be a contender through the fall, but the team can't help but look over their shoulder - especially with the injury luck of at least one other division rival bottoming out and key players due back before the end of the summer.

The Reds' pitching has posted an ERA+ of 120 through the first two months of the season, which - if it held - would make this one of the best-pitching Reds teams in history. Oddly enough, they've done it while getting slightly-below-average performance from their two marquee offseason acquisitions. That fact alone makes me optimistic that the pitching can remain above average.

The pitching (and defense) has allowed only 184 runs, which has them on pace for 596. That's a mark that puts them in pretty good company. It would tie them for 28th lowest in modern Reds history - just ahead of the 1990 World Series team and just behind two other teams that made it to the World Series ('39 and '75).

What those three great teams also did was score runs. Like the 2012 squad to date, the 1990 team had a great bullpen, but while the 1990 team is the lowest-scoring of any Reds' postseason team (except 1919), they put 42 more runs on the board than the current team's pace.

Continue reading this post »

The Reds seem to be getting stops from their starting pitchers whenever they need it. That's a major difference between this year and last - the bullpen isn't digging itself into an early hole. More importantly, the team is building an early lead.

May has been unkind to Cueto. He's allowed 20 more total bases this month than in April (over one less batter faced). It's really just been his last three games that have backed his season away from "best" to "very good." In those three outings (ATL, NYY, COL), he's allowed twice as many earned runs (12) as he had in the other 7 games he pitched.

To pare it down even more, the games against Atlanta and Colorado are the only two starts Cueto has made where he's given up more than 3 earned runs, while going less than 6.1 innings. Those two teams rank 2nd (COL) and 3rd (ATL) in runs scored in the National League. It bears mentioning that Cueto held the top-scoring offense in the NL to one run over 7 innings.

All else being equal, Cueto may be more vulnerable than a high strikeout pitcher to potent offenses. But he keeps the ball in the park and free passes to a minimum. Sometimes good offenses get to good pitchers and, with a contact pitcher, might have an easier time stringing their hits together in one inning. I'd say all we've learned from two rough outings is that Cueto probably isn't going to have a 1.12 ERA all season.

One more bit I didn't know what to do with: Cueto's ERA is 0.56 over two games where he's had 6+ run support. His opponent is AJ "Let's see if there's an NL Central Bump" Burnett.

Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

I try to refresh the links on the sidebar periodically, adding new, (mostly) Reds-related links and retiring those that are no longer active. It occurred to me that I hadn't done so in a while and may have missed some new Reds blood on the blogosphere. It's been long enough that I still think "blogosphere" is something cool to say.

Of course, a lot of the old-standbys are still daily reads and firmly planted in the Blogroll. I was curious if I'd overlooked any upstarts. Any Ryan Wrights. Or even any Todd Fraziers.

Here are a few that we've added somehwat recently, but by no means an exhaustive list. None of these are new, which hopefully drives home the appeal to do some recommending in the thread. It's also a reminder that baseball blogging is not - nor should it be - a boy's club.

So I Married a Baseball Player
You're probably familiar with Mat Latos' social-media-savvy better half. In addition to being quick with the tweets, she also keeps a blog over at MLB Blogs. Which is a loose confederation of writers that we're probably all blackballed from joining forever.

C-ing Red
You may also be familiar with longtime Red Reporter andromache's blog over at Aerys Sports. She keeps it up-to-the-moment current, while alternating in-depth empirical analysis (like her incisive Pitch F/X commentary) with some really funny posts (like her recent Todd Frazier Heimlich Photoshop). I'm plotting a hostile takeover as we speak.

Flip Flop Fly Ballin'
This tumblr blog is only occassionally Reds-related, but I check it frequently as a break from words and numbers. The blogger is a graphic designer who consistently produces visually-appealling, insightful infographics and a steady stream of entertaining baseball ephemera.

The Reds are slamming into the bottom of a shallow pool in the high minors right now, leading to some speculation about a possible trade for a bench bat.

They do, however, have enviable middle infield prospects below AAA. Other than Aroldis Chapman, no one has gotten remotely close to the pub that Billy Hamilton has in recent years. Keith Law's update to his pre-season rankings is a few days old, but I wanted to zoom in on two things Law mentions in his Insider piece. They reflect general speculation about B-Quix, so I don't think I'm giving away the farm.

Law speculates about Hamilton switching positions. With second base occupied well into mid-decade and third base a big question for someone with Hamilton's skillset at the plate, I wonder if the CF talk is going to slowly pick up steam as disenchantment (justified or not) with Stubbs grows. There has, after all, been a contingent that's wanted to see a Bruce-Hamilton outfield for years. (Get it?)

Also, there's reasonable doubt about whether Hamilton will hit enough to be league-average or above at any position but short. If he can't stick there, or is blocked, he'll obviously need to show more than his breath-taking speed. To cite an unfair example, the player whose SB record he's threatening (Otis Nixon's brother) flamed out in the majors.

I don't think anything Hamilton has done in the minors (.284/.347/.387), other than not play above A+, should fuel concerns that he can't hit well enough for an up-the-middle player. But he does have a less projectable skill-set and a bat that, if it doesn't stick at one of the two most premium defensive positions, could plummet in value.

I'm curious how fast he'll move - both through the organization and across the diamond - over the next calendar. Even with the uncertainty, the excitement is justified. The Reds could use a quick-climber or two on their ladder.

Remember the fallen today.

It's been a dramatic two weeks for the Reds. On May 12, the team was at .500 (3.5 games back) and hitting the road with a tough schedule ahead. Fast forward to the end the final series of the month, and they're 27-20, leading the division by a game and a half.

That winning stretch across Atlanta and New York last week was a good sign, but the road mettle needs to be stress-tested a little more. The record isn't thrown too much by home field advantage - they've played only two more games at home than away so far - but it's easy to rack up loses away from those cozy padded walls. The 2011 squad went on a 2-8 late May road trip from which they never recovered.

Enough downers. James McDonald is a good pitcher who owns the Reds, but Bronson is a good pitcher too (again). He'll face a Pirates offense that is, quite literally, the worst.

Continue reading this post »

Brandon Phillips has traced a unique career arc. The Media Guide bullet points about him finding success with the Reds after the Indians "gave up on him" have been repeated countless times. Nearly as interesting as is transformation from near-bust to All Star, I think, is how Phillips' skill set has evolved in recent years.

After BP's 30-30 season in 2007, he was a good defensive second baseman who offered a exceptional power for his position on top of his apparent speed. He picked up the label "all-around player."

Under the surface, he didn't have a skill set that was supposed to age well - speed, power without plate discipline and defensive skills (and a batting stance/swing) that often looked high-risk.

Continue reading this post »

I won't be using the basket baby any more when something good happens. Baseball is a superstitious game, internet blogging doubly so. I do think "Sated Richard Schiff" has promise though.

I was hoping the Reds wouldn't lose ever again, so I could use a script to auto-fill these game threads: "It's __/__/__ and I can't believe it's a __ game win streak. This is an amazing ongoing event."

The team can't get afford to get complacent. They've only spent two days in first place and not only are the Cards just a half game back, but three teams are within 4 games. They also have an offense that, despite the recent home run binge, is still below league average and only fourth in its own division. In the NL, the Reds rank ahead of just the Pirates, Cubs and Padres for wRC+ - a stat that adjusts wOBA for league and park.

They're going to have to do some work with the bats, especially since Johnny Cueto isn't going to be holding teams to one or none runs all the time. Luckily, they've got an extra bat in the lineup: Mike Leake and his .333/.333/.533 slash line. Ignoring minimum PAs (Leake has only 17), that's the third-best OPS+ on the team. It also surprised me to learn that Todd Frazier was #2.

Lineups and all that after the jump. It's baseball night in America, no one seems to be saying.

Continue reading this post »

Since the Reds are riding a 6-game win streak (their first since August 2010), I tried to come up with an antidote to our losing streak mascot:

Credit for shopping out the baby goes to Gapper (I think).

Maybe it needs to be a departure from babies, laundry hampers and bricks. In any case, SIX WINS WITHOUT A LOSS.

Christian Friedrich is making just his fourth major league start tonight. I don't want to make too much of that, because Friedrich been a highly-regarded prospect and misses a lot of bats. Then again, he's given up a good number of liners/fliners/flyballs so far. This is of interest to the the home team because: temperatures are up and 10 seeds* found purchase** for the Reds during the Braves series.

Continue reading this post »

After the game-winning brap that Todd Frazier clarked last night, the Reds are looking looser than they have in a long time. But since at least the middle of 2011, if not my entire life, I haven't been able to tell an empty cliche from a legitimate turning point.

The Reds' run differential says they should have lost a couple more games, but their strength of schedule is among the toughest in the NL. Personally, I think the eyeball test is as good as any to judge whether a team is overachieving. Homer Bailey, for one, looks to be right where I'd expect.

Bailey and Delgado matched up 10 days a go. Homer got the better end of the deal, though they both pitched 6.2 innings and had very similar lines. One notable nugget: that game was Jay Bruce's last multi-hit affair. He had two hits off Delgado, including a double (he's had just two hits since). Any port in a storm.

Homer es delgado, but Delgado is no Homer. Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

While the Reds are on an upward trajectory, Jay Bruce is foundering in the midst of one of his signature slumps.

Despite what you may have heard, Bruce as a .850 OPS/.360 wOBA/very good player is not somehow worse than a player with the same stat line who might arrive there with less streaky production - unless you can show that Bruce only contributes in games the Reds' would have won or lost by a wide margin.

It should also be mentioned that, despite his recent struggles, Jay has a .366 wOBA (higher than he's posted in any single season previously).

His fits and starts do prompt the question as to what's driving him to look so lost after recently looking so terrific and almost the best.

On May 8, Jay was hitting a svelte .306/.342/.667. That wasn't even 3 weeks a go, so please tell me I'm not wasting my time on this post. I'm already 4 internet paragraphs in, so there's no turning back. Since then, he's been tumbling. Over the last two weeks, he's been the Reds' worst regular, hitting .163/.255/.256. His OPS is .214 (!) over the last 7 days.

During that time, he has a 35.3% K-rate and the lowest line drive rate of any non-Rolen/non-pitcher

Why? Is this stretch pure noise in the context of an 162 game season or is it something deeper, possibly endemic to his previous slumps? Good question. I guess. Honestly, I wonder if it's not just the fact that it's only been like 2 weeks. Two, two and a half...

I'd be happy with the small sample size explanation if the slump wasn't so deep or part of a pattern. After the jump, a few recurring factors that might help explain.

Continue reading this post »

The last time the Reds were four games above .500 was exactly one year a go yesterday. Knowing how last season turned out (winning records = 0), maybe this is a cautionary tale about not reading too much into the Reds' current success. But where that team was on its way down from an early peak (and in the midst of a 6 game losing streak) - this team is upwardly mobile and beating good competition.

You might argue that last May's sweep of the future World Champs could easily be the equivalent to this May's good showing against the Yanks and Braves. Still, the talent level on this team is higher. Right? I mean, it would suck if it wasn't. We can't know yet whether this team will be like 2011, 2010, 1995 or something even more special, but I don't think staying in the race is a passing fad.

Bronson Arroyo's success might not be either. By all accounts, he's healthy - which makes a world of difference. His home run rate and HR/FB rate are back down to career average. His stuff, especially his curveball and slider, looks confusing again.

By commanding his trick bag better than he ever has, he's striking out more while walking less. That's reflected in his peripherals, which he's outperforming less than he has in years. While he's getting stung on balls that are staying in the park, he might also be unlucky with a BABIP 30 points higher than his career average.

GoRoyo, Go Rojos.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Chuck Scrabbles already gave us an exquisitely-reasoned case for why Sean Marshall is a good pitcher. In his new role, he's unlikely to be used in less important situations than he has been so far this year. He might even get more regular work. From that perspective, it's hard to mourn his return to a setting-up.

The reason flopping Chapman and Marshall in the bullpen pecking order even matters is that Dusty, along with most major league managers, puts his "closer" sash on just one pitcher. And that role brings with it far too ceremonial duties. The closer enter almost all of his games in the ninth inning, always with the lead - regardless of the match-up, recent usage and often in situations where the run spread is 3 or, sometimes, more. Yesterday's outing was our first taste.

We know that's not going to change, so it's not worth spilling much ink over. But what it does mean, for Aroldis Chapman, is that he'll be used less effectively by moving from a mostly 8th inning fireman to a save-only closer.

Chapman is the best pitcher in the Reds' pen. If it wasn't obvious by inspection, he leads relievers in almost any category you can think up - from fastball velocity to ERA to WAR. It only follows, then, that Best Reliever Chapman should be used as often as his stamina allows, in situations where the game outcome is most in doubt.

So far, that's kind of how he's been used. Chapman has logged the most innings pitched of any non-starter. And he's been used pretty effectively, according to average Leverage Index at the beginning or games and innings entered.

Here are the top three relievers in average "gLI" and "inLi" so far (prior to yesterday's game):

Instead of climbing the ladder, Chapman is probably going to slip down at least a rung, while potentially being used a third less often the rest of the way than he would have been.

Continue reading this post »

Arroyo gave the Reds innings and saved the bullpen, which is what I was bitching about before last night's game. So I should be happy. While I can't get happy about a shutout loss - or any loss - at least everyone got a breather (bats included).

Maybe the Reds wore themselves out taking in the sights. Maybe Yankee Stadium lore got to their heads with Pettite on the mound. Or maybe they're one disciplined bat short of a decent offense.

Even Homer Bailey's peripherals betray him as a 4.50 ERA pitcher by nature. He draws an opposing pitcher that the Reds really should be able to get on. But that might not be how this works.

Believe it or not, a winning record for the New York trip and a winning historical inter-league record against the Yankees is still possible. You can still make it there, which by the commutative property means you can make it anywhere. Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

The isn't a "Rewind" game. Or a tear in the fabric of spacetime. All the bad and good stuff that has happened in the last nine years has still happened. Brian Shackleford will not be coming into relieve Bronson Arroyo.

Bronson Arroyo and Andy Pettite have played in a combined 40 major league seasons, much of it overlapping. Pettite broke in with the Yankees in '95, Arroyo as a Pirate in 2000. They've faced each other three times previously: twice in 2006 when Arroyo was a Red and Pettite was an Astro, once in Pettite's first stint as a Yankee. Arroyo came in to relieve Pedro Martinez.

The two NL Central face-offs were split: one Goodroyo, one Badroyo. Pettite got the win at Fenway when Arroyo was a spunky 26-year-old long reliever. Nine years later, Arroyo is the crafty veteran trying to put together a bounce-back season. Pettite is something beyond a veteran, having recently returned from retirement. Elder statesman, maybe.

What the Reds need out of Arroyo, possibly more than anything else, is innings. They've usually been able to depend on him for that. Since Arroyo's last start (5.0 IP), Homer Bailey is the only Reds' starter to make it to the 7th inning (and he didn't finish it). BroYo has plenty of experience in Yankee Stadium to boot, including three playoff appearances. It doesn't hurt that he's currently leading the NL in walk rate and SO/BB.

Further reading

Here's the Reds' lineup from Pettite and Arroyo's first meeting in NL Central (June 3, 2006). I'm actually impressed that's there's two players still around from that team:

Brandon Phillips 2B
Felipe Lopez SS
Ken Griffey, Jr. CF
Rich Aurilia 1B
Adam Dunn LF
Austin Kearns RF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
David Ross C
Bronson Arroyo RHP

Dewayne Wise, who starts for the Yankees tonight, was with the Reds in 2006.

This is only the 23rd regular or postseason meeting between the Reds and Yankees in history. They've played 9 times in interleague play (the Reds are 5-4) and 13 times over three World Series (Reds won one of three, going 5-8).

The Reds went 6-12 in interleague play last season. Ignore those games and win these games. Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto gorped his 6th crankwood off the facade in right field and went 2-4. If we didn't have an unwritten rule against giving this award to opposing players, Ronny Cedeno (2-5, HR, 3 RBI) or David Wright (2 2B, on base 5 times) would be taking home that $15 gift certificate to Buffalo Mild Legs. BML: Come for the lack of distracting wall art, stay for gently-seasoned thigh meat!

Key Plays

• Latos and the Uncanny Dickey traded zeroes until the 4th inning, when Joey Votto hit a frack-job to right field that would have been a bonzai anywhere: Citi Field '11, the Polo Grounds or Ebbets Field.
• The Reds got three more in the 5th, thanks in part to wildness/knuckling from Dickey. With the league's best bullpen standing by, our team made the reasonable assumption that 4 runs were enough. Time to focus on prevention.
  
• In the top of the 5th, Andres Torres singled and David Wright walked. With two outs, Jay Bruce misjudged a line drive off the bat of Lucas Duda in the bottom of the inning that may have been catch-able.
  
• Latos' stuff looked good more often than not , but he couldn't hit enough of his spots. Three walks and a few too many pitches on the fat part of the place bounced him from the game after 5.0 IP. J.J. Hoover came in to limit the damage to a run off a sac-fly.
  
• A Todd Frazier double to lead off the 7th would be their last threat while the game was within reach.
• Aroldis Chapman entered, along with his 25.1 inning scoreless streak. He had yet to pitch in consecutive days and showed some fatigue. Wright led off the inning with a walk. Chapman may have been pitching around him, which is understandishable - especially with three lefties coming up. It's a move that wound up costing him the scoreless streak (though not the earned run streak). Duda dropped a weak blooper, then Drew Stubbs misplayed another blooper to load the bases. Chapman worked out of the jam with his customary two strikeouts, but not before Wright scored on a sac-fly.
• The wheels fell off and started a structure fire in the bottom of the eight. Logan Ondrusek's tab with math, the Universe and everything was long past due. At first, it looked like the Reds were getting flared to death when another potentially catchable ball landed between three fielders, but Ronny Cedeno's 3-run blast blew it up for good. Cue laugh track. Mets win, 9-4.

Source: FanGraphs

Continue reading this post »

The Reds faced the knuckleballing R.A. Dickey for the first time last July. Last year's edition had some success: eight hits (BP and Bruce both doubled), but 7 Ks in 6.2 innings. Ryan Ludwick and Wilson Valdez are the only Reds with more than 5 PAs against Dickey. Ludwick is the most successful, with a home run and a single in 6 ABs.

Before last year (as far as I could tell), the last knuckleball specialist to face the Reds was the now-retired Tim Wakefield. Miguel Cairo is the only Red to see him more than 4 times. Old Giza is .269/.345/.308 lifetime against Wake.

With the possible exception of Cairo, we really have no idea how the Reds handle the knuckleball, but you know without looking that Ludwick will be in the lineup.

Continue reading this post »

To preview this Mets miniseries, I spoke with Amazin' Avenue and Chuck held court over at Metsmerized Online.

I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Maybe you read other blogs that do. This is not such a great match-up. The Mike Leake we know from Seasons One and Two is never more than a start away from becoming dependable again, but there hasn't been much to like about his recent episodes. Other than: his regressed stats, which were revealed in a really hacky series of therapist scenes, suggest he's not nearly this bad.

Meanwhile, Johan Santana is back from doing off-Broadway and, rather than losing steps, has learned a few.

Go Reds! Think positive, play the game, then win the game.

Continue reading this post »

It's easy to forget that Todd Frazier, in the eyes of Baseball America, was a Top 50 overall prospect and number one in the Reds' system prior to the 2010 season. Having started his professional career at short stop, he could be imagined almost anywhere on the field. With 16 games at AAA under his belt, having hit at every level, Todd's Time was close at hand.

Yet since the start of the 2010 season, Frazier has made 938 plate appearances at AAA to just 157 in the majors. His numbers at the plate, while trending up, didn't match the brilliance he'd shown at lower levels.

He turned 26. He's made appearances at 5 different positions between Louisville and CIncinnati. Frazier's versatility became a form of indecision on the part of the organization - and apparent doubt about whether his skillset fitting into one of their positions of need. A lot of it was having Rolen and Phillips under contract, but part of it may also have been that he didn't seem like he'd hit well enough to play the outfield.

Frazier's fits and starts in Louisville obscure the fact that he's a player we were pretty excited about a little over two years a go. What he's shown since is steady and incremental improvement. The bat has come along: from a sub-.800 OPS in 2010 as a Bat to an .879 OPS this season in the majors. He's gone from a major positional question mark to what appears to be a passable infielder in the majors - someone who can even be used in the middle infield in a pinch.

With Juan Francisco a Brave and Rolen on the DL, Frazier has his chance - deferred, but very real.

Continue reading this post »

A team doesn't have to string together lengthy winnings streaks to be successful. But good teams usually do anyway over the course of a long season. Back-to-back wins against good competition is encouraging. So is a 3-hit night from a left fielder.

While the team may not be able to pull even with the Cardinals before the end of the month, they can continue to demonstrate they're in it for the long haul. Nothing about their performance so far has been fluky:

• W-L in line Pythagorean record
  
• .500 in 1-run games
• Slightly better record at home than away
• In general, better records against worse teams

If there's room to grow, the question is how much better the offensive improvement will be than the bullpen regression. The bullpen is among the best, if not the best, in the National League. If it stays that way AND the bats come out to play, then this is a first-place-caliber team.

If you think the team we've seen so far is the "real" Reds, then they may be good enough for 2nd place in the NL Central. It may even be a little bit better by virtue of not playing the Nats and Cards over 1/3 of the time. But "just good enough for 2nd place in the Central" isn't shaping up to be good enough for the playoffs.

Although none of this really matters when Johnny Cueto is on the mound.

Continue reading this post »

Last night was another in a surprising number of high-impact, "turning point"-style games on the young season. Not only did it finish in a totally bombastic walk-off, but it allowed the Reds to hit the road with a winning record.

The schedule is pretty wacky this month. The Reds play a pair of two games series this week: first the Braves, then the Mets. They play the Braves six times in the next ten days. With a three-game set at Yankee Stadium (and five days total in New York) this weekend, it'll be a challenging stretch.

If he ever fell off, Joey Votto is now back on the radar. The best way we can support him is to write your fourth and sixth hole hitters and ask them to fund some lineup protection. Joey may not need it, but the team does.

Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

Couldn't decide which photo of Bryce Harper yelling while wearing a band-aid to use. Reds threatened in the 7th, but still down 2-1.

3-20 with RISP this series.

We're approaching that time of the season where players with options are getting a hard second look - at least from us. After a relief appearance on May 13 of last season, Mike Leake was demoted to AAA. He was called back quickly, after Homer Bailey hit the DL again and Edinson Volquez out-worsted him. The short trip to Louisville did him some good.

Despite what you've heard, Mat Latos is not one of these players. For one thing, his ERA is not 7-something. After his brilliant 2 hit, 0 ER, career-high-11 K outing against the Pirates, Mat's Stats are looking a lot more La(t)otian. Through one May start, we can still blame the early struggles on April.

Tonight Mat and his Stats face the Nats. While they're not a scary offense, the test may be pitching at home - where the pressure is more apparent. Latos has a lower road ERA so far, but opponents are hitting him significantly better at home: .300/.338/.500. The positive spin is that he's been unlucky on the road.

The series win is still on the board. Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

Follow along with @redreporter for tweets from the game, in conjunction with tonight's #RedsTweetUp

The Reds narrowly avoid Strasburg in this series, but that's cold comfort. When we last saw Gio Gonzalez, he held the Reds to 2 hits and no runs through 7 innings. He's been just as good virtually every start since then. He's talented enough to be an elite pitcher in the National League, but there are a few things that don't make sense about his performance so far. After leading the AL in walks issued last season, he's almost a walk per nine innings below his lowest mark. He's yet to give up a home run in 36.2 innings. His worst start was against the Cubs. Hopefully, Great American will be the perfect setting to do some claims adjustin'.

At this point in this season, this is one of the bigger mismatches the Reds have faced. His mound mate, Mike Leake, is currently Reds most embattled starting pitcher. You might argue Homer is coming to meet him there, but about the only thing Leake has going for him to date is a low walk rate. That suggests he can still roughly find his spots, but his touch has not returned. Up in the zone is still a strike, but it's the worst kind for Leake.

Tweet the game and win the game. Go Reds!

Continue reading this post »

Youkilis-to-Cincinnati speculation has been on a slow boil ever since he said the following in an ESPN Boston article last August:

"If it wasn't Boston, I would want to play in Cincinnati just to say that I did it," Youkilis said. "I grew up rooting for them. I used to be bitter towards the Reds because they didn't draft me, but that bitterness is gone. It would be fun and it would be for my family."

It's probably less of a boil than the thing that happens when you turn the burner on too low and the flame goes out and you're just leaking gas into the kitchen.

Since then, Youkilis has scuffled in Boston and hit the DL with an ailing back. Scott Rolen has returned from surgery and continued an apparent decline that could traced back as far as late 2010.

So we have two third basemen on the wrong side of 30, with lingering injuries, who are currently responsible for the following cringe-worthy 2012 stat-lines:

Youkilis: .219/.292/.344 (72 PAs)

Rolen: .182/.247/ .318 (97 PAs)

Continue reading this post »

Jay Bruce: signed through 2016, with a team option for 2017

Joey Votto: signed through Zombie Apocalypse, into First Dolphin Uprising

"Quickforget 'ems" I like to call last night's game. Homer Bailey and the bullpen were due for a regression

Despite "regression" being thrown around every time Cueto takes the mound, I'm going to retire that shop-worn talking point. We may well need a lot more data to square Cueto's ground-ball tendencies with the fact that his peripherals call for a serious dip, but enough is enough.

Zack Greinke is the inverse of Cueto. He's in his third season of significantly underperforming his FIP. Last season, he led NL starters in strikeout rate, despite posting a virtually identical ERA to Mike Leake.

Both men, we can safely say, are very good pitchers. Only one is the major leagues' ERA leader.

Play the game and the win the game, yeah?

Continue reading this post »

Bailey was pulled after 3.2 IP, despite Game Day Scout telling me he had "plenty left in the tank." JJ came into turn this game into a Hooverville. Brewers up 6-0.

Game Day Scout also told me: "Ho0ver will nev-er allow a bases-clearing-of triple in CAREER."

Like Cole Hamels, I'm not going to deny my baser instincts. This is a transparent attempt to get you to give Pick 6 a try. But it's not at the behest of SBNation. I've been enjoying the game and think it would be more fun with wider participation. The barrier of entry is just having a SBNation user name. The game itself can take up less than a minute per day.

To stoke your competitive juices and bring everyone up to speed, here's the season-long leaderboard to date (below). This game has only been running less than two weeks, so there's plenty of room for a major swing. A big day from a starter and closer can effect a major point swing. There are also Red Reporter and SBNation wide leaderboards by day, week and season. Like the tired lottery saw, there are many ways to win. Unlike the lottery, while this could result in a classifiable addiction, it will not take up any of your money.