A few months a go, I went up to Mt. Sinai (Medical School) and happened upon a New Yorker Festival book signing featuring Bill James. I wanted to ask him about the genesis of some of his sabermetric theories, but I ended up rambling about how bad the Reds have been. We touched on the subject of Pete Rose's exodus from baseball. I told him I thought Rose to be an unsavory sort, but sometimes major league baseball's standards of behavior can be as contradictory and opaque as the Book of Leviticus. I wish I'd had the chance to talk numbers with him a bit more, but I hadn't prepared anything. Deutoronomy, I guess.

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In my ongoing attempt to crowdsource The 2010 Shortstop Solution, I've floated two polls on the subject. As no one says, democracy, like lightning, rarely strikes twice. So far, opinion on this site favors an internal solution by a plurality. Since supporters of fixing SS in house prefer to take a pass on a market solution, let's call this alternative "the public option." 

To recap:

In poll one (121 votes), 46% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (19%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (25%) or try both Frazier and Janish at SS (12%).

In poll two (61 votes), 48% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (32%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (19%) or try both Frazier and Janish (6%).

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Democracy triumphed last week as 81 voters voiced the opinion of their internet persona on a series of hypothetical solutions to the Reds shortstop "situation." With a plurality of votes (22%), "Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B" captured the imagination of the electorate, with its promise of a change in position and hope for Frazier and Sutton to bring offense to the Reds' middle infield.

In order to inch closer to consensus, let's look at a revised ballot.

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With J.J. Hardy spirited away to Minnesota and Zack Cozart in line for a season of ripening, Paul Janish currently sits atop the Reds depth chart at short stop. And you needn't take my word for it - Marty Brennaman bears witness to this very fact in his most recent Hot Stove League broadcast.  Prevailing opinion on this blog maintains that Janish's glovework makes him serviceable as the Reds lack funds needed to lasso a Marco Scutaro or Miguel Tejada. To boot, Tejada and Scutaro represent players for which the Reds would likely overpay, marking another ill-advised, prospect-blocking multiyear investment.

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With forecasts of payroll cuts putting the Reds' 2010 outlay between $65-$70MM, it seems likely that a salary-dumping trade will be needed to balance the ledger and accomodate arbitration raises. The most likely candidates to be dealt are Francisco Cordero, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang and Brandon Phillips. This state of affairs seems to make it all but certain that while the Reds may be able to top .500 without CoCo in the 'pen, they're not likely to sniff the playoffs again in 2010 - and have little hope of improving on last year if Harang, Arroyo or Phillips depart. Managment is becoming at least dimly aware of this fact as they aremore keenly aware of the state of the books in 2010, with an eye toward 2011 - that magical year when contract committments fall off in a big way.

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The below lineup was generated by using Lineup Analysis at Baseball Musings. I plugged in the updated ZiPs projections - with some slight tweaking of my own (nothing drastic). According to the model, it would give the Reds 4.947 runs per game, a marked improvement over the 4.444 they're averaging now. I know this is highly speculative, which is probably why I like it so much.

Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion
Paul Janish
Laynce Nix/Jonny Gomes
Brandon Phillips
Ramon Hernandez
Jay Bruce
Pitcher
Willy Taveras/Chris Dickerson

This team is an unfortunate casualty of having multiple offensive sinkholes right now, though the offensive problems eminently manageable for the franchise over the next calendar year.

Votto and EdE are out, while Bruce and A-Gon are mired in slumps. Bruce will come out of it, while I think A-Gon is out to sea. Janish should get a chance to play regularly this season (but likely won't) -- and if he were to prove himself to be just the defensive replacement everyone assumes he is, then get a plan in place to have an offensively productive shortstop playing regularly by opening day 2010.

Assuming they don't pick up Hernandez's option for next year, I really like this fake lineup to be in place by mid-season 2010 and to win the division next season. It's one that recognizes the team will never move BP, but will be forced to move Votto for Yonder.

Taveras CF
Bruce RF
Votto LF
Phillips 2B
Alonso 1B
Encarnacion 3B
Hanigan C
Marco Scutaro (maybe?) or someone from the farm SS

So it's "wait 'til next year," but with prospects to stay competitive for most of this season if injuries and slumps abate.