SB Nation User Blog: RijoSaboCaseyWKRP

10 Commandments

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:56:15 -0000

A few months a go, I went up to Mt. Sinai (Medical School) and happened upon a New Yorker Festival book signing featuring Bill James. I wanted to ask him about the genesis of some of his sabermetric theories, but I ended up rambling about how bad the Reds have been. We touched on the subject of Pete Rose's exodus from baseball. I told him I thought Rose to be an unsavory sort, but sometimes major league baseball's standards of behavior can be as contradictory and opaque as the Book of Leviticus. I wish I'd had the chance to talk numbers with him a bit more, but I hadn't prepared anything. Deutoronomy, I guess.

In the same spirit of- and partly adapted from - Bill James' 10 Commandments, I offer the following decalogues for the Reds' franchise succes in the '10s. It's my hope that if the Reds abide by these guidelines, they can begin to part the Red Sea of failure that has been a plague o'er the land for the past decade.

Like James' list, these are slightly exaggerated for the sake of dogmatic effect:

Thou shalt not sign a free agent starting pitcher on the open market
Thou shalt not give expensive, multi-year contracts to relief pitchers
Honor thy players who reach base often
Thou shalt not trade useful position players for relief pitchers
Thou shalt make no idol of the slap-hitting speedster
Economize where ye can economize (bullpen and defense) so that you may spend when thou needest
Thou shalt reverse the tides of committing a lot of money to a few players
Thou shalt not attach significance to outlier seasons
Place thy faith not in veteran "leadership," when cheap players with upside be available
Thou shalt not non-tender those cost-controlled players which have value to thy team

Shortstops: The Final Word

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 17:43:36 -0000

In my ongoing attempt to crowdsource The 2010 Shortstop Solution, I've floated two polls on the subject. As no one says, democracy, like lightning, rarely strikes twice. So far, opinion on this site favors an internal solution by a plurality. Since supporters of fixing SS in house prefer to take a pass on a market solution, let's call this alternative "the public option."

To recap:

In poll one (121 votes), 46% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (19%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (25%) or try both Frazier and Janish at SS (12%).

In poll two (61 votes), 48% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (32%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (19%) or try both Frazier and Janish (6%).

The validity of all this statistical noise is up for debate, but there seems to at least be a measure of reliability here. Almost half of RRs would like the short stop position be filled by someone already in the organization. When you consider the paucity of both resources and free agent options, this seems sensible. The actual percentage might be even higher if voters considered the likely cost in talent of trading for the MLB-ready, top-tier prospects listed on the poll.

For my part, I'm on board with the public option. Simply put, there are no proven, fulltime starters the Reds could nor should pursue in free agent market this offseason. And this isn't the year the Reds win the pennant, so it doesn't seem to make a ton of sense to give up prospects which may be useful in 2011 for one piece in 2010. It seems more prudent to see how Cozart and Valaika fare over another year in the system and then re-evaluate the holdings. This isn't to say that if Jose Reyes were available for a sweetheart deal, you don't jump on it. But the Reds are unlikely to acquire a player of that stature without cutting significantly into their talent (and possibly cash) pool for 2011 - and without having a better understanding of the PH levels and bromine concentration in that pool.

Additionally, it makes little sense to move BP over for any minor role-player. Dusty Baker again echoed the team's complete unwillingness to move him during his press session at the Winter Meetings. While I'll never understand the lack of imagination in the organization, I'm swayed to a degree by the lack of an irresistible force to move Phillips. It's reasonable to assume Frazier isn't ready to play 2B (or SS) in the majors - and he's more likely end up settling down at 3B and LF. Sutton deserves a chance to play semi-regularly, but he certainly doesn't fit the profile of a player who would displace an established, Gold Glove winning 2B (and erroneously-named team MVP). It's unwise to build this case based on seniority, but for lack of a better option, I'm willing to give the organization the benefit of the doubt when it comes to analyzing the defensive strengths all concerned players at both 2B and SS. BP's permanence at 2B seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Which leaves us with Janish at SS. And this seems OK to many here, myself included. In an ideal world, Janish would approximate his .261/.351/.382 minor league line while maintaining his superlative defense. This would make him better at the plate than the recently name-dropped Jamey Carroll while far more valuable defensively. Over a full season, this could make Janish around a 3 WAR player. Even if this best-case scenario is remote, Janish is sure to improve on last year's anemic line. The big proviso is that, as a fulltime starter, Janish would not be insulated from right-handed pitching, which he has a staggering inability to hit across his career (MLB: .182/.273/.281, MiLB: .238/.324/.358).

Even if his offense vs. RHP can be tolerated, the Reds would do well to have a backup plan.

When considering a lower-level trade or FA pick-up, the standard would have to be a player who is better than Sutton or Rosales enough to justify the price of admission. The area of biggest impact for a minor singing or trade would likely be in acquiring a player who can play a competent SS in the majors (something Sutton and Rosales are not likely to do), while hitting righties at a decent clip. That way, you aren't throwing a chunk of your already thin budget at a player with the same basic skillset as two cost-controlled bench players already on the roster.

The goal of this move would be to improve bench depth, SS offense and, quite possibly, near-term SS depth if the player performs well enough to enter the discussion for 2011.

Nor surprisingly, the possibilities are underwhelming. But I think there is someone in the faceless mass below who, at the very least, would represent a moderately-priced insurance policy. With this step, we move tantalizingly close to a collective final decision on who, weighing all practical considerations, ought to be the Red's offseason pickup (if any). To quote Denise Richards, Christmas is coming early this year.

The baseline:

Adam Rosales

Has posted a -1.6 UZR in 448 Innings at 3B. Too small a sample to say anything conclusive, but he's likely to be about neutral at 2B and slightly negative at SS and 3B, due in part to his arm.

.197/.293/.290 (224 PA) vs. RHP in the majors

.298/.368/.507 vs. RHP in the minors (.291/.364/.499 overall)

Rosales shouldn't really be in the conversation at shortstop, but if he can calm the hell down this year, he coud be a solid utility player. While Cousin Harold is widely maligned, any acquisition the Reds make would have to play a better shortstop than Rosales and have comparable upside.

Drew Sutton

Not really much to go on at the major league level in terms of UZR, but intel suggests he'd be slightly plus at 2B and neutral / slightly negative at third. He seems like he could be a better than Rosales at SS.

.281/.385/.469 vs RHP in the minors (.280/.378/.455 overall)

If Sutton is somehow good enough defensively to split time with Janish and can get on base at around .350 or better vs. RHP, there's little reason to go after the Jamey Carrolls of the world. However, he hasn't yet shown evidence he can do either.

Free Agents & Possible non-tenders:

Mike Fontenot

.272/.348/.435 lifetime in majors vs. RHP in 826 PAs (.266/.339/.422 total)

.298/.372/.372 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.295/.377/.460 total)

UZR/150 lifetime at 2B: 10.4 (214 games) - Has played 20 innings of SS in the majors with the Cubs

Maximum offer Reds should consider: 2 years at no more than $7MM guaranteed. Fontenot was worth 3 WAR in '08 and could remain in the middle infield conversation in 2011. I'm not sure how likely it is he will be non-tendered, but the Reds could also look trade.

Craig Counsell

.260/.347/.356 lifetime in majors vs. RHP

2009: .290/.358/.415 (414 PA)

2008: .229/.358/.308 (275 PA)

2007: .234/.337/.316 (274 PA)

UZR/150 lifetime at SS: 7.8

*2009 (UZR/UZR150): -.1 / -1.2

*2008 (UZR/UZR150): 1.9/13.0

*2007 (UZR/UZR150): -.5/-3.9

Maximum offer Reds should consider: 1 year at $2.8MM. Sure to get better offers. Even at this below-market price, would make an expensive platoon/utility player on the Reds budget.

Jamey Carroll

.269/.348/.346 lifetime in majors vs. RHP

2009: .278/.350/.348 (260 PA)

2008: .229/.358/.308 (275 PA)

UZR/150 lifetime at SS: -6.7

Maximum offer Reds should consider: 2 years at no more than $5MM total guaranteed

Nick Green

.236/.305/.375 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (235 PA)

.255/.299/.415 lifetime in the minors vs. RHP

UZR/150 lifetime at SS (104 games): 12.5 -- As per BubbaFan, this is probably an anomaly

Maximum deal Reds should consider: Minor league deal with invitation to spring training. Doesn't hit much better than Janish and doesn't have a platoon advantage, but his.268/.316/.446 minor league line suggests he can hit for some power. Probably not enough of an offensive improvement on Sutton or Rosales.

Khalil Green

.245/.296/.421 lifetime in the majors vs. RHP

UZR/150 lifetime at SS (678 games): -2.6

Maximum deal Reds should consider: Split deal at close to league minimum guaranteed

Trade possibilities:

Maicer Izturis

Now that he's got his own frontpage RR thread, you have to think he's the presumptive favorite.

He's a switch-hitter, but seems to hit RHP with more power to the tune of .283/.344/.404 lifetime in the majors

He's been used primarily at 2B and 3B, but has shown the ability to field SS well enough. Given platoon splits, Janish would be a good complement, with Maicer taking starts against RHP.

Maximum Reds should give up: Johnny Gomes or Arthur Rhodes and a Sam LeCure level prospect (not enough?)

Kevin Frandsen

.237/.311/.309 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (314 PA)

.316/.379/.451 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.318/.380/.452 overall)

Not enough major league innings to say for sure, but his UZR is positive 2B (in 594 innings) and negative at SS (in 198 inn). Taken with anecdotal evidence, I think Frandsen would be at least as good as Rosales or Sutton at SS, while likely better than both at 2B.

Maximum Reds should give up: Devin Mesoraco, or possibly Neftali Soto

Jhonny Peralta

.266/.329/.415 lifetime in majors vs. RHP

UZR/150 lifetime at SS (706 games): -5.8

Maximum Reds should give up: Devin Mesoraco or two Logan Ondrusek / Donnie Joseph level prospects

Angel Sanchez

Plays good defense at SS, but only a .292/.340/.384 line against RHP in the minors.

Maximum Reds should give up: A pair of C level prospects.

Luis Valbuena

.251/.303/.404 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (404 PA)

.282/.361/.447 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.272/.350/.411 total)

Defense plays better at 2B

Maximum Reds should give up: Probably nothing but C prospects, though he could be a worthy UTL with some upside if Sutton is out of the picture.

----

Who did I miss that might meet the above strictures?

Here's my evolving ranking of the above players, considering all factors at work, as SS/UTL acquisitions this off-season:

Maicer Izturis
Mike Fontenot
Kevin Frandsen
Jhonny Peralta
Craig Counsell
Jamey Carroll
Angel Sanchez
Luis Valbuena
Khalil Green
Nick Green

Poll

What should the Reds do at shortstop next year?

Short Stops: Instant "Walk-off" Poll

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:33:18 -0000

Democracy triumphed last week as 81 voters voiced the opinion of their internet persona on a series of hypothetical solutions to the Reds shortstop "situation." With a plurality of votes (22%), "Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B" captured the imagination of the electorate, with its promise of a change in position and hope for Frazier and Sutton to bring offense to the Reds' middle infield.

In order to inch closer to consensus, let's look at a revised ballot.

Keep Janish as fulltime starter

PROS:

Costs no additional money
Gets on base at a decent rate and offense likely to improve over a full year of MLB experience
Excellent defense at a premium position, which may be good for at least 1 WAR
On their shoestring budget, Reds may have to pay at least $2MM for the chance to net 1 win or so above what Janish offers

CONS:

Has hit righties at an abysmal rate: .182/.273/.281 in the majors (264 PA), .238/.324/.358 in the minors (1204 PA)
Projects to a sub-.700 OPS
Offers zero power on a team in desperate need of it

Move Brandon Phillips to SS, Frazier and/or Sutton to 2B

PROS:

Costs no additional money, unless Frazier stands to make more than Rosales next year somehow
Allows Frazier to get MLB experience and find a role on the team, priming him to contribute to the 2011 squad
Should gauge what Reds have in Sutton, who has put up a respectable .280/.378/.455 minor league line
A platoon, with Frazier seeing time against some righties, could be quite productive: In the minors, Sutton is .281/.385/.469 vs. RHP, while Frazier is .334/.406/.576 (!) vs. LHP

CONS:

Defense would be significantly downgraded at both positions. It's unclear how much worse BP would be than Janish, but there would be an adjustment period. Sutton plays a serviceable 2B, but Frazier could be very awkward there. Could negate any offensive improvements.
Frazier may require more seasoning in Louisville and a platoon could be wasted service clock while he could be playing fulltime in AAA; Sutton's minor league success simply might not translate to being a semi-regular 2B at the major league level
Entire experiment may not be worth the risk of the above: compromising the defense while "rushing" Frazier and putting to much faith in Sutton

Sign Craig Counsell

PROS:

Relative to Scutaro et al., he can be signed for cheap, likely $3MM or less
Had a great year in '09: .336 wOBA, .357 OBP, 2.8 WAR
Has been a plus fielder at SS over his career; A look at UZR/150 over the last three seasons suggest he'd be competent to good
If he could be signed for a year at $2MM or so, platooning him with Janish could be effective. His .290/.358/.415 lin against RHP last year may be the cheapest way to improve SS production without compromising defense.

CONS:

Turns 40 next year. He's due to fall off a cliff and his 2.8 WAR season in '09 was surely an abberation. Projections that regress for age are likely to suggest, on the whole, that he's not going to be an improvement on Janish at all in 2010.
Defense at SS could be more questionable that it appears.
Price tag may be artificially inflated. Money may be better spent elsewhere.

Sign Felipe Lopez

PROS:

.320./.407/.448, .358 wOBA. 4.6 WAR last year
Has been a competent fielder in 300 games at 2B
Hits LHP and RHP roughly equally

CONS:

2009 was an abberation which will run up his asking price. Something closer to his career .269/.338/.400 line is expected.
Likely to be a multi-year deal as he heads heads toward the wrong side of 30
May be residual bad blood with Reds organization, despite almost complete turnover since he left
Is no longer a SS, so placing him at 2B would incur the BP-moving problems listed above

Trade for top tier young player

I'll reprise the info I listed in the previous post. Feel free to imagine other similarly cost-controlled players with upside. For the purposes of this exercise, only moves that are likely to affect SS in 2010 are considered, so any trade that yields a non-MLB ready SS falls under the "Keep Janish as MLB starter" category.

Erick Aybar (Angels)

The Angels have a potential logjam in their middle infield, but the cost in trade for would be dear. Unlikely to be wrested away for anything that wouldn't short-circuit the 2010 season and amount to a rebuilding gambit.

Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez (Rays)

Both have been mentioned as trade targets here before. Brignac plays good defense and his stock has gone up since last offseason, so any trade might have to start with Chris Heisey as a centerpiece. Rays have Barlett and Zobrist pretty well locked in at ss and 2b for the foreseeable future, so one of these two might be available. Zobrist may be headed to the OF to accomodate Brignac, so S-Rod could be had - though Geki maintains he may not stick at SS.

Jason Donald (Indians)

Seems doubtful the Indians would flip a lucrative piece of the Cliff Lee trade, but they're in desperate straits. According to TotalZone, he's a terrible defender.

Brent Lillibridge (White Sox)

A poor defender, but with the White Sox surplus at 2B and SS, coud be pried out cheaply and has quite a bit of upside.

Split Time between Sutton and Janish

See the above entry on Sutton.

PROS:

No additional cost
Could greatly improve SS offense against RHP

CONS:

Sutton would provide substandard, possibly terrible defense at SS

Poll

What should the Reds do at shortstop for 2010?

Keep Janish as starter

20 votes

Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B

12 votes

Sign Craig Counsell as possible platoon partner

6 votes

Sign Felipe Lopez to play some role in the middle infield

1 votes

Trade for a top tier young player such as Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Erick Aybar or Jason Donald

12 votes

Split time between Sutton and Janish

4 votes

Some other signing or trade

6 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

Shortstops at the Bargain Bin

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:21:10 -0000

With J.J. Hardy spirited away to Minnesota and Zack Cozart in line for a season of ripening, Paul Janish currently sits atop the Reds depth chart at short stop. And you needn't take my word for it - Marty Brennaman bears witness to this very fact in his most recent Hot Stove League broadcast. Prevailing opinion on this blog maintains that Janish's glovework makes him serviceable as the Reds lack funds needed to lasso a Marco Scutaro or Miguel Tejada. To boot, Tejada and Scutaro represent players for which the Reds would likely overpay, marking another ill-advised, prospect-blocking multiyear investment.

By all accounts, the best course of action would be to load up Paul Janish with supplements, a montage-worthy training regime and Lasik surgery - and hope for the best.

I did, however, accidentally read this throwaway remark in a recent MLB.com article by Mark Sheldon:

I think Paul Janish, might find a decent fit with 39-year-old Craig Counsell, who earned $1 million for the Brewers in 2009 and excels at getting on base.

It's easy to dismiss this as aimless groping in the wilderness of the Reds financial woes but I gave Craig Counsell's Fangraphs Page a once over just the same:

2009: .336 wOBA, .357 OBP, 2.8 WAR

Yes, he's 39, but the Reds wouldn't be crazy to pursue a one-year deal at $2MM or less. He plays competent defense and hits righties better than Janish does. One thing I hadn't realized about Janish was his rather jarring platoon splits in the minors:

vs. LHP: .312/.388/.435

vs. RHP: .238/.324/.358

Combine Janish with a bargain pick-up -- someone who plays adequate defense and hits righties. Janish takes starts against all lefties and the occasional righty and seeing frequent use as a late innings defensive replacement. The Reds could do worse than a one-year stopgap contract to Craig Counsell.

Age is clearly a major risk factor for a Counsell signing going bust. Bill James projects .246/.337/.327 in 2010, about what we'd expect from Janish. Counsell's 2008 was an aberration and he may end up being about as valuable as Janish over next year. The fact remains, however, that Janish has a record of poor performance against right handed pitching. If the money and/or right transaction comes available, the Reds would be well advised to find a way to add depth at short.

Here are some other ways to go:

Erick Aybar (Angels)

The Angels have a potential logjam in their middle infield, but the cost in trade for either would be dear. Unlikely to be wrested from the Angels for anything that wouldn't short-circuit the 2010 season and amount to a full on rebuilding gambit.

-- EDIT: As per Geki, Sean Rodriguez is in the Rays system now. I need to monitor the trade wires more vigilantly.

Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez (Rays)

Both have been mentioned as trade targets here before. Brignac's stock has gone up since last offseason, so any trade might have to start with Chris Heisey as a centerpiece. Rays have Barlett and Zobrist pretty well locked in at ss and 2b for the foreseeable future, so one of these two might be available.

Jason Donald (Indians)

Seems doubtful the Indians would flip a lucrative piece of the Cliff Lee trade, but they're in desperate straits.

Alexei Ramirez / Brent Lillibridge / Chris Getz / Jayson Nix (White Sox)

None of these guys have been impressive in the majors, but the surplus of middle infield talent with upside on the Sox warrants a look. Could grant the Reds more flexibility in what they do with Janish, BP, Frazier and Sutton over the next year, rejiggering the depth chart favorably and providing a bridge to future transaction.

Tyler Green (Cardinals)

Minor league offensive numbers aren't much better than Janish, but still has upside. Could be a decent foil to keep both Cozart and Janish honest.

Todd Frazier and/or Drew Sutton at 2B, BP to SS

The refrain is "not going to happen," but for the purposed of this thought experiment, assume that it could. The defense could be start out awkward at both positions - and Frazier would need to make the offensive adjustment - but Frazier needs to find a position soon - whether it be 2B, 3B and OF. Sutton, for his part, has respectable minor league numbers and should get a trial, in lieu of Rosales, wherever the Reds have an opening.

Adam Everett (Tigers)

Free agent. Only paid $1MM last season. Probably not an improvement on Janish.

---

Most of the available options are pretty fraught, which points to staying the course with Janish and allowing Valaika and Cozart to percolate for a year. While I see plenty of merit in this policy of benign neglect, I can't help but think that short-stop may be the position of greatest return on investment for the Reds, given their current lack of depth and future void at shortstop and 2b as Phillips gets more expensive, older and then becomes a free agent.

A low or no cost change to the status quo should not be too much to ask, especially considering the fact that both SS and 2B are likely to jointly drag down team OBP next year, which I suspect is the area of greatest need for the Reds. I guess all I'm asking is for some kind of 3rd tier transaction I can feed into my hot stove, which means I'll be dissapointed no matter what. But it's the new and different forms of dissappointment that keep me coming back.

Poll

What should the Reds do next year at short stop?

Keep Janish as fulltime starter for 2010

23 votes

Sign Craig Counsell as possible platoon partner

18 votes

Trade for one of the following top tier young players: Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Erick Aybar or Jason Donald

22 votes

Trade with White Sox for SS Alexei Ramirez or Brent Lillibridge

8 votes

Trade with White Sox for 2B Chris Getz or Jason Nix

1 votes

Trade for Tyler Green

0 votes

Sign Adam Everett

3 votes

Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B

30 votes

Split time between Sutton and Janish

15 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed

Reading Between the Bottom Lines OR 2011: A Payroll Space Odyssee

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:26:27 -0000

With forecasts of payroll cuts putting the Reds' 2010 outlay between $65-$70MM, it seems likely that a salary-dumping trade will be needed to balance the ledger and accomodate arbitration raises. The most likely candidates to be dealt are Francisco Cordero, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang and Brandon Phillips. This state of affairs seems to make it all but certain that while the Reds may be able to top .500 without CoCo in the 'pen, they're not likely to sniff the playoffs again in 2010 - and have little hope of improving on last year if Harang, Arroyo or Phillips depart. Managment is becoming at least dimly aware of this fact as they aremore keenly aware of the state of the books in 2010, with an eye toward 2011 - that magical year when contract committments fall off in a big way.

The Reds are only tied down for $28.3MMin 2011 plus major raises due to Votto, Cueto and Volquez. Getting the books clear for 2011 favors trading Phillips in the next year - if not this season. BP has the biggest potential market and ability to inspire trade partners to take on his 2011 money. He isn't likely to be their first choice to put on the block from a PR standpoint, but swinging right deal might be the best chance this team has to put its financial house in order while improving the outlook for 2011.

Trading BP would seem like a counter intuitive move, considering his youth and cheapness relative to Arroyo, Harang and Cordero. However, BP might represent the greatest potential savings and return in trade, with Arroyo and Harang off the books for 2011. Cordero, likewise, will be hard to shop and any salary dump likely wouldn't return any prospects. A trade of Phillips offers a chance to clear salary over the next two years, while hopefully garnering some talent that could contribute by 2011.

Trading BP could bring 2011 commitments down to $17MM, before arb raises and contract tendering. That would probably allow the Reds to pursue some top shelf free agents such as Roy Halladay and Jayson Werth while auditioning the Class of 2011, including Yonder, Cozart, Frazier, Juan Francisco and possibly player(s) netted in the BP trade.

While writing off another season dissappoints me greatly - to the point of considering tuning out entirely - there is no excuse for this team not to be both competitive and in good financial health for 2011. I expect the moves made over the next year will tacitly acknowledge this.

Here's what the team could look like in 2011, with a payroll easily below $70MM.

SP: (Halladay/Webb/Beckett), Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, (Owings/Maloney/Wood/Leake)

C Hanigan
1B Alonso
2B Frazier (FA?)
SS Cozart (FA?)
3B Francisco (FA?)
LF Votto
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

I think the Reds would be foolish to part with Votto or Alonso when they can accomodate both and while both seem likely to reliable anchors in the middle of the lineup for years to come. But for the right return, I would deal Alonso for an IF or C, especially if Heisey pans out in LF. It's unclear where Frazier will stick, if Juan Francisco can play 3B or whether Cozart is the solution at SS, but the payroll flexbility in 2011 should allow the team to monitor progress in 2010 and spend for need next offseason.

The above lineup is highly speculative, but at least illustrative of the fact that the Reds will have a good base of MLB-ready talent and money to spend that could solidify a first-class pitching staff and any setbacks in development on the farm.The available cash in 2011 provides the Reds with the opportunity to be competitive in the free agent market and pursue at least one pitcher and one position player from the top tier for whom a multi-year contract would represent relatively low risk and high reward. Taken together with the maturation of the up-and-coming, there's no excuse for this team not to make the playoffs in 2011.

Short of new ownership, trading Brandon Phillips might be the best way to acheive this. I'm just not sure how many of the die-hards here will still be around to share in the spoils. Any kind of hedging this offseason, such as paying exhorbitant money to Ramon Hernandez, will show us that the current regime is still caught in a delusion.

A question for Cincinnati locals (and the Diaspora too): In you opinion, what are the best places...

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 18:36:27 -0000

A question for Cincinnati locals (and the Diaspora too): In you opinion, what are the best places in Cincinnati to catch a Reds game other than GABP itself? Sports bars, etc.

As long as several other people are drinking and yelling TV-ward, I don't have a "problem."

A Fake Lineup Within Reach

RijoSaboCaseyWKRP — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 16:50:06 -0000

The below lineup was generated by using Lineup Analysis at Baseball Musings. I plugged in the updated ZiPs projections - with some slight tweaking of my own (nothing drastic). According to the model, it would give the Reds 4.947 runs per game, a marked improvement over the 4.444 they're averaging now. I know this is highly speculative, which is probably why I like it so much.

Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion
Paul Janish
Laynce Nix/Jonny Gomes
Brandon Phillips
Ramon Hernandez
Jay Bruce
Pitcher
Willy Taveras/Chris Dickerson

This team is an unfortunate casualty of having multiple offensive sinkholes right now, though the offensive problems eminently manageable for the franchise over the next calendar year.

Votto and EdE are out, while Bruce and A-Gon are mired in slumps. Bruce will come out of it, while I think A-Gon is out to sea. Janish should get a chance to play regularly this season (but likely won't) -- and if he were to prove himself to be just the defensive replacement everyone assumes he is, then get a plan in place to have an offensively productive shortstop playing regularly by opening day 2010.

Assuming they don't pick up Hernandez's option for next year, I really like this fake lineup to be in place by mid-season 2010 and to win the division next season. It's one that recognizes the team will never move BP, but will be forced to move Votto for Yonder.

Taveras CF
Bruce RF
Votto LF
Phillips 2B
Alonso 1B
Encarnacion 3B
Hanigan C
Marco Scutaro (maybe?) or someone from the farm SS

So it's "wait 'til next year," but with prospects to stay competitive for most of this season if injuries and slumps abate.