Rob Vollman
Jan 15, 2010 Jun 01, 2012 23 363
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Player Usage Charts Are Here
by Rob Vollman on Jun 1, 2012 10:28 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Player Usage Charts, which were first "invented" here on Arctic Ice Hockey almost one year ago as a graphical representation of Gabe's ground-breaking offensive zone start, Quality of Competition and Relative Corsi statistics, are now available for download.
We've got one for every NHL team along with expert analysis from a field of 20+ experts including me and Alex Hemsky. It's absolutely free, so there's no reason not to download a copy and check it out.
Direct link: 2011-12 NHL Player Usage Charts
Reviewing Winnipeg Jets Projections: the others
by Rob Vollman on Apr 23, 2012 3:16 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
How well did Winnipeg’s secondary forwards do this year, scoring-wise? By going back and comparing their year-end scoring to the pre-season projections we established using Tom Awad’s famed VUKOTA system and our own Snepsts System, we’ve gotten a good idea at how well Winnipeg’s top-six forwards and defensemen performed, leaving just the secondary forwards for this final piece.
Reviewing Winnipeg Jets Defensemen Projections
by Rob Vollman on Apr 17, 2012 5:56 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
How did Winnipeg’s defensemen do this year versus expectations? Before the season began we set expectations using both Tom Awad’s highly respected VUKOTA system and the Snepsts System, which searches NHL’s vast history for players with comparable era-adjusted scoring statistics, and uses their future performance to set high-water, low-water and average scoring expectations for every Jet.
Reviewing Winnipeg Jets Player Projections
by Rob Vollman on Apr 12, 2012 12:28 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
It takes guts to put your predictions out there for everyone to see, but perhaps it takes more guts than brains to bring them back for review.
On the other hand, it really is a win-win situation. If the predictions are way off, the information can be used to improve the system, and if the predictions are accurate, well then there will doubtlessly be a line-up of ladies at our doors wanting to get with us. Or some other kind of suitable reward, I’m sure.
We’ll start with the top-six forwards (as they were seen before the season began) today, the defensemen next week and then all the other forwards later this month.
Evander Kane's Historical Comparables
by Rob Vollman on Feb 22, 2012 1:03 PM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Season GP G A PTS PPG Shots 2010-11 73 19 24 43 4 234 2009-10 66 14 12 26 0 127
So we're looking for 19-21 year olds on the 20-goal bubble, with roughly the same number of assists, with a little bit of power play contribution their 2nd year, with 3 shots per game (up from 2 shots per game the previous season).
Using a revised version of the Snepsts system, we found over a dozen players that qualified - let's see if any of them match Evander Kane this season (who is on pace for 30 goals and 50 points), and shed some light on what the future may store.
Evander Kane's historical comparables
by Rob Vollman on Feb 14, 2012 5:22 PM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Remember the series of historical comparables we did early this season? Well, we're developing a new historical comparable system, and we need your help.
We've chosen some random players, and below are the results of several different systems that find statistically comparable players throughout history, and new variants of those systems. Turns out one of the random target players chosen is a Winnipeg Jet, and who would know him better than the loyal readers of Arctic Ice Hockey?
How the Jets are being used
by Rob Vollman on Nov 17, 2011 7:05 PM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Let's take a quick look at the OZQoC charts for the Winnipeg Jets, which tells us at a glance how their players are being used.
On the x-axis is the Offensive Zone starts in reverse order, so those on the right are starting mostly in the defensive zone. The y-axis has the Quality of Competition, so those at the top are being matched up against their opponent's top lines.
First let's look at the forwards. The close a player is the top right, the tougher their jobs have been, and the sheltered players in whom the coaches have the least confidence are tucked in the lower left.
Ok Laraque!
by Rob Vollman on Nov 8, 2011 6:00 AM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Recently Georges Laraque claimed that enforcers and top-tier NHL athletes are on performance-enhancing drugs like steroids, and claims that you can "prove" this by looking at changes in a player's performance during Olympic years, when NHL players are subject to far more extensive drug tests. Theoretically, Laraque argues, player performance will take a dip in Olympic seasons as they get off the drugs, and return to normal the following season.
Ok Laraque, that's easy enough to do. There are 102 NHL players who played at least 20 games before, during and after the 2010 Olympics. To measure their performance I used an all-purpose statistic that summarizes all of a player's offensive and defensive contributions in one number: GVT. To account for any changes in ice-time, I calculated each player's GVT per 60 minutes of ice-time for all three seasons (Anyone who wants the raw data can drop me an email). If Laraque is right there should be an over-all dip in the Olympic season.
Jets Comparables IX: Final Scoring
by Rob Vollman on Oct 6, 2011 7:01 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Over the past couple of months we've used various types of projection systems, including Vukota, Snepsts and AHL translations, to set scoring expectations for the Winnipeg Jets. In our final piece we'll put it all together.
Jets Comparables VIII: AHL Translations
by Rob Vollman on Sep 26, 2011 1:00 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
To set objective scoring expectations, we've spent the last six weeks searching NHL's vast history for players with similar era-adjusted statistics as virtually every player on the Winnipeg Jets roster with sufficient NHL experience. But what do we do with those who have spent large parts of their recent career in the AHL?
This week we'll use AHL-to-NHL translations (NHL Equivalencies) to set expectations for the non-NHL regulars on the roster: Tim Stapleton, Ben Maxwell, Brett Festerling and Derek Meech.
Jets Comparables VII: The Final Snepsts
by Rob Vollman on Sep 19, 2011 10:37 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Over the past couple of weeks we've looked at virtually all the Winnipeg Jets players with any significant NHL experience, two at a time, finding historical players with era-adjusted statistics similar to theirs recently, and using their subsequent results to help establish objective expectations for today's roster.
Today we'll finish up with quick looks at the remaining depth forwards: Jim Slater, Tanner Glass, Kyle Wellwood and Alexander Burmistrov.
Jets Comparables VI: The Blue Line
by Rob Vollman on Sep 12, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Over the past couple of weeks we've looked at Andrew Ladd, Nik Antropov, Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom, Bryan Little, Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler, Eric Fehr and Chris Thorburn. This week, we'll take a wide paint brush to the other defensemen of primary consequence, Ron Hainsey, the unsigned Zach Bogosian, Johnny Oduya, Mark Stuart and Randy Jones.
Jets Comparables V: Fehr and Thorburn
by Rob Vollman on Sep 6, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Over the past couple of weeks we've looked at Andrew Ladd, Nik Antropov, Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom, Bryan Little, Evander Kane and Blake Wheeler. This week, we'll look at newly-acquired Eric Fehr and Chris Thorburn.
Jets Comparables IV: Kane and Wheeler
by Rob Vollman on Aug 29, 2011 12:37 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Over the past couple of weeks we've looked at Andrew Ladd, Nik Antropov, Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom and Bryan Little. We've also looked at how difficult projections can be, but how reasonably the Snepsts System stacks up over-all. This week, we'll look at Evander Kane and Blake Wheeler.
Jets Comparables III: Bryan Little
by Rob Vollman on Aug 22, 2011 1:21 AM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Over the past couple of weeks we've looked at Andrew Ladd, Nik Antropov, Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom. This week, before we proceed with Bryan Little and Evander Kane, let's take a step back to see how useful this exercise really is.
Here is last year's data for the four players we've already projected, and the two we're doing next, along with the Snepsts projection, and the Vukota projection. You'll note that Snepsts doesn't look particularly useful, essentially whiffing on them all.
G/GP A/GP PTS/GP
Andrew Ladd
Vukota 0.24 0.32 0.56
Snepsts 0.21 0.28 0.49
Actual 0.36 0.37 0.73
Nik Antropov
Vukota 0.29 0.48 0.77
Snepsts 0.27 0.44 0.71
Actual 0.21 0.33 0.54
Dustin Byfuglien
Vukota 0.30 0.29 0.59
Snepsts 0.18 0.23 0.41
Actual 0.25 0.41 0.66
Tobias Enstrom
Vukota 0.10 0.41 0.51
Snepsts 0.11 0.42 0.53
Actual 0.14 0.57 0.71
Bryan Little
Vukota 0.29 0.33 0.62
Snepsts 0.21 0.31 0.52
Actual 0.24 0.39 0.63
Evander Kane
Vukota 0.27 0.26 0.53
Snepsts N/A (requires 2 seasons of data)
Actual 0.26 0.33 0.59
Despite it's infancy, Vukota is already being coronated as the most reliable projection system. For instance, David Mirtle recently compared with other popular projectionists on last year's Edmonton Oilers, and it came out on top. Even though a system as accurate as Vukota doesn't always come close on a case-by-case basis, just like Preparation H, it usually feels good on the whole.
On average, Vukota nailed the goal-scoring, projecting 0.25 goals per game on a group that got 0.24, but undercutting assists per game 0.35 vs 0.40, for a total projection of 0.6 vs 0.64. On average Vukota was off by 0.12 points per game, which is actually about as good as it gets.
Snepsts tends to predict lower than Vukota, and these six players – five players, actually – are no exception. Unfortunately that meant under-cutting these players 0.24 to 0.2 on goals, and 0.4 to 0.34 on assists, for 0.64 to 0.53 over-all – off by 0.26 points per game on average, which is absolutely nothing to brag about.
In fairness, these aren't random players, but rather the Thrashers' best players after-the-fact, which are definitely more likely to be inaccurate when using a system that tends to project low. If you review last year's Flames Nation piece, which was done on players before the fact, you'll see that it caught some overachievers at one end, some underachievers at the other, but over-all the average almost nailed it as closely as Vukota.
In fact, if you look at all 336 players for which there are both Vukota and Snepsts projections (Snepsts requires at least 2 seasons of data, and at least two seasons worth of player data), Snepsts is off by an average of 0.13 points per game, even better than Vukota's 0.14.
Having used perhaps too much space to defend its honour, let's cover Bryan Little today and leave Evander Kane for next week.
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Jets Comparables II: Byfuglien and Enstrom
by Rob Vollman on Aug 14, 2011 9:35 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Jets Comparables
by Rob Vollman on Aug 7, 2011 6:18 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Jets Comparables
Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Andrew Ladd, LW
Andrew Ladd, a 4th overall selection by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2004, is the new Winnipeg Jets captain, and an excellent place to begin our journey.
Winnipeg Forwards OZQoC
by Rob Vollman on Jun 22, 2011 5:01 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
A player’s OZQoC ("Oz-Coke") is a statistical representation of their role. The term OZQoC is composed of the percentage of shifts they start in the offensive zone (OZ) and a Relative Corsi-based approximation of the Quality of their Competition (QoC). Knowing in what situations a player is sent on the ice, and against whom, tells us a great deal about their assignments, and therefore what our expectations of them should be.
Unfortunately it isn’t easy to look at these two numbers and immediately get a clear picture of what it really means. Therefore it can helpful to look for other players with a similar OZQoC, who would basically be their peers on other teams.
Not only are we going to take a look at each Winnipeg forward’s peer groups after the jump to help clarify their roles, we’re also going to use their Relative Corsi scores to see how well they’re playing it.
Forward OZ% QoC RC Peer’s RC Diff
Andrew Ladd 50.6 0.824 9.5 2.6 6.9
Bryan Little 55.2 0.700 10.1 4.0 6.1
Jim Slater 43.4 -0.418 -2.5 -5.2 2.7
Blake Wheeler 53.4 0.756 1.5 1.7 -0.2
Tim Stapleton 59.5 -0.204 2.6 3.1 -0.5
Rob Schremp 43.8 0.323 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3
Alexander Burmistrov 56.5 -0.339 -2.8 0.0 -2.8
Eric Boulton 49.9 -0.786 -6.4 -3.3 -3.1
Evander Kane 54.5 0.499 0.7 4.1 -4.4
Chris Thorburn 46.9 -0.093 -8.1 -3.0 -5.1
Nik Antropov 49.8 0.053 -6.1 0.0 -6.1
Patrice Cormier 44.6 0.236 -8.3 -1.9 -6.4
Radek Dvorak 43.4 0.548 -8.8 -2.4 -6.4
Anthony Stewart 54.5 0.402 -4.0 4.3 -8.3
Minimum 20 GP
Winnipeg OZQoC Graphs
by Rob Vollman on Jun 20, 2011 4:50 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
An OZQoc Graph is a graphical representation of a player's role. On the x-axis is their Offensive Zone Starts in reverse direction, and on the y-axis is their Relative Corsi-based Quality of Competition. Each point label features an abbreviation of the player's name, and their Relative Corsi.
Without further ado, knowing that further analysis and explanation is to come after the jump, here is the OZQoC graph for Winnipeg's forwards - minimum 10 GP, and including unsigned RFAs and UFAs.
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Looking at Defensive Forwards
by Rob Vollman on Apr 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
Today I'm going to share the results of a fairly simple exercise, but one that I've been meaning to complete for quite some time.
First, I compiled a list of the league's 20 best defensive forwards based on relatively subjective measurements, like Selke award nominations, or recurring mentions in various on-line threads about the league's best defensive forwards.
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Shooting Percentage Suppression
by Rob Vollman on Mar 16, 2011 3:16 PM EDT
on Arctic Ice Hockey
In his recent relaunch of the Shot Quality Contest, Gabe asked the following questions (among others):
Are there players or teams with the ability to drive or suppress on-ice shooting percentage? What are their characteristics?
Looking at this from the player level, I searched the last four seasons of data on Behind the Net, and looked at the even-strength on-ice save percentage of every player who played at least 20 games, to try to find someone who was consistently higher than average.
Who did I find? George Parros!
Evaluating Player Contracts
by Rob Vollman on Mar 1, 2011 6:39 PM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
While discussing Dustin Byfuglien’s contract recently, a question from fat_daddyo came up about how to "measure GVT (and by extension marginal wins) against salary/cap hit and see if a particular player is playing up to their contract."
My initial response was to use GVS: Goals-Versus-Salary, for which the formula is:
Who Won the Gretzky Trade?
by Rob Vollman on Feb 18, 2011 12:20 PM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
It’s been over 22 years since the fateful day when, in some people’s interpretations, a broke Peter Pocklington sold the sport itself to the Americans by dealing/selling the greatest hockey player who ever lived to the Los Angeles Kings. Peter Puck had been shopping Wayne Gretzky around for months prior to their 1988 Stanley Cup victory, to teams like Los Angeles, Detroit, Vancouver, Winnipeg and the Rangers.
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