Almost 60% of the way through the contest already!


Update: Rain-out re-scheduled for Aug 3, thus we will only have 84 pre-All Star Break games.

Last update through games of May 31.

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Replacing Werth with Nady is not going to help the Nats' "offense".

Still no word on when the rain-out will be rescheduled...

I have tentatively changed the total number of games to 84, pending the re-scheduling of the rain-out from April 22.

Last update: Games through May 8

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Ever ask yourself: Just how much HAS Desmond's supposed defense supposedly improved? Can a team that has made essentially no changes to their roster hope to score more runs? Just how wild IS Henry Rodriguez??

These questions are burning in MY mind, too!

Hello and welcome to the new, improved, and upgraded 2012 Guess-Em contest! Picking and prognosticating are fun, but they're even MORE fun if held within the context of a "contest", and even more so when winning could get you millions of dollars in cash and prizes!

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Having been entertained the last couple of weeks with Patrick's nostalgic look back at 2011, I figured I'd get ahead of the curve and go ahead and post my favorite headlines from 2012. As far as I know, all these things will happen just as will be reported!

These are, of course my opinions. Do you have better future moments in mind?

Number 5 (Jan 19, 2012):

Nationals, Fielder Agree to Historic Deal

Number 4 (Apr 5, 2012):

Harper, Strasburg Carry Nationals to Victory in Season Opener

Number 3 (Jun 17, 2012)

Fielder Slams Yankees for Sweep

Number 2 (Jul 10, 2012)

NL Wins Third Straight All-Star Game on Storen's Two Perfect Innings

Number 1 (Sep 30, 2012)

Nationals Clinch First-Ever Playoff Berth on Zimmerman's Walk-off Blast

Obviously, the Nationals far exceeded my expectations in the win/loss column this year.  There were some lucky bounces along the way which helped, but they also had to deal with a a fair amount of adversity (not the least of which: Ryan Zimmerman's abdomen strain costing him a huge chunk of the early part of the season).  Still, their Pythagorean record of 78-83 indicated that most of their success was not a mirage.  And, obviously, the main reason for the huge improvement was in their ability to prevent runs.

SPAD?  The defense allowed 67 unearned runs this season, compared with 84 last year, and 83 the year before, so one could argue that the improved defense helped save a game or two.  The improvement in pitching is where they made their money though: pitching in total allowed 874 runs in 2009 (by FAR the worst in the league), 742 in 2010 (12th in the league), and 643 in 2011 (7th in the league).  That's an incredible, almost completely unbelievable, reduction of  231 runs allowed in just two years!  At ten runs a game, it's not hard to imagine how they gained 21 games in the standings over that time.

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via i1202.photobucket.com

Before yesterday's game, the Nationals hosted their first "On-Field Photo Shoot".  It was an event which gave fans a chance to come down onto the field and take pictures and wave at the Nats players, coaches, and broadcast personnel as they walked by.  The fans were allowed onto the warning track, which was roped off all the way around.  The players, etc., would be introduced a few at a time and would make their way down the line, shaking hands and saying hi like the President after the State of the Union.

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Do you find yourself completely unable to score more than once a week? Do you experience frequent LOB and RISP-failure heartburn? If so, you may be a P.A.D.S. sufferer. P.A.D.S. is a treatable disorder characterized by excessive bunting, improperly aggressive baserunning, and a nauseated fan base. Left untreated, PADS can lead to painful losses, sudden drops in standings, and comatose sideline reporting.

But now you can rid yourself of these embarrassing statistical blemishes and unsightly box scores. Now there’s Offenza. Offenza is a safe, legal, over-the counter cure for bad offense. It’s a combination of power and patience that allows your team to score when you need it most.

Offenza is an effective treatment for ineffectual offenses, but it will not cure bad management. Frequent bullpen meltdowns are a serious baseball condition and require immediate roster attention.  Use Offenza only as directed, and see your doctor if you have top quality players languishing in Low-A for more than four weeks.

If you or a loved one suffers from the symptoms of PADS, please, see a doctor, and ask about Offenza.

via www.reuters.com

OK, so someone has probably already done this sort of thing here, but I'm going to revisit the question nonetheless.  In a different post comment I mentioned that my top two Nationals' moments were the St Stephen Strikeout Number 14, and JMax's (RIP) grand slam to finish the 2009 season in style.  I got to thinking about some of my other favorite moments, but I thought the community could add in some of their own favorites.  Maybe we can vote on the top moments ever.  I say we milk the discussion all the way 'till the snow melts...

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To all the Nationals faithful, Happy Holidays!  I sincerely hope everyone is able to be with their loved ones this holiday season: if not in person, then at least in spirit.  I am moments away from heading out to my home state of Texas, and this will likely be my last post/comment for the year.   So there's at last that to be thankful for!  ;-) 

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With a steady hand, and eyes on the prize, cassander winds up pacing the crowd and sails to victory in the first ever Nationals Guess'em Contest! Congratulations!  He is now the proud owner of a brand-new Nyjer Morgan Bobblehead!  NMIMH!  

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Here are the standings in the GuessEm Contest.  Here's the original post.  Rec this one and it might stay up for a few weeks.

Last Update: Through games of 10/1

Anyone who's watched the Nats play much recently have no doubt been appalled by their excessive number of

1. Errors, and
2. Double Switches.

Face-palms abound in the stands these days.  But now, you can turn that angst into joy!  

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A question arose as to what constitutes a reasonable stolen base percentage, that is how many times must a Nyjer Morgan successfully steal a base before he makes up for getting caught stealing a base.  I'd like to demonstrate one way to answer that question and give some rules of thumb on the subject.  I call it "Baserunning 101", but I also want to give a feel for the mathematics required to do the calculations.  Trust me, the math is not too difficult.

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via upload.wikimedia.org

Some might consider it a thinly veiled insult to the Pittsburgh Pirates' organization that the Nationals decided to wait until today to bring up Stephen Strasburg.  Some might say that the Nationals went out of their way to make his first Major League start seem a lot like his last AAA start, at least in terms of the offensive competition.  Others may claim it's all coincidence.  

So the question is, what's going to happen tonight for Strasburg?  Will he dazzle?  Will he fizzle?  Pollsters everywhere want to know!

via cdn3.sbnation.com

Unlike others here, I like Nyjer Morgan's attempt to make the spectacular play, because I believe it was worth the risk.  I've tried to make this point a couple of times, but haven't got much traction. So naturally I'm going to try to make it again.

Let's say there are two outs and nobody on base. A ball is hit hard towards the gap. If Nyjer attempts a spectacular play to dive for the ball, or leap for the ball before crashing into the wall, there are two potential outcomes. Either he makes a spectacular play and the inning is over, or the runner ends up on third (or, in very rare circumstances, at home). If he doesn't attempt the play, i.e. he lays up and lets the ball drop or bounce off the wall, the result is a double.

The question is whether Nyjer should attempt the play, and the answer is dependent upon the likelihood that Nyjer makes the play if he attempts it. Let's say that likelihood is p. For purposes of the following analysis, I'm going to assume that failure will result in the runner making it to third, as an inside-the-parker is extremely unlikely. Now, a run expectancy matrix I have indicates that the number of runs expected with 2 outs is

•  .344, if a runner is on second, and
•  .387, if a runner is on third.

Of course, the actual expectancy is dependent on the game situation (it's different if Albert Pujols is next up instead of, say, Melky Cabrera, but we'll ignore that point). Thus, the number of runs expected if he attempts the play is

0*p + .387*(1-p),

and the number of runs expected if he doesn't attempt the play is .344. Setting these quantities to be equal gives

p = .11.

In other words, if Nyjer has at least an 11% chance at making the play, he should attempt the play.

Of course, I don't really expect Nyjer to calculate his chances of making the play to determine whether he's at least 11% likely to successfully do so. I do, however, think that Nyjer is practiced enough to know when a play is simply out of his reach and not worth an attempt. If anything, we've seen him be a lot less aggressive on balls this year than he was last, allowing flares to drop without much overt effort to prevent it.

Also, note that all this is dependent on there being two outs. With 0 or 1 outs, the equal-outcome value for p is a lot higher, i.e. he has to be much more sure of himself in these situations.

Someone suggested this, and I think it's a darn fine idea.  Please submit your guess as to the date of Stephen Strasburg's Nationals' debut:

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We're twenty-seven games in -- one sixth of a season -- and the Nationals have presented themselves in a way most fans would find surprising.  The team has been aggressive, resilient, tenacious, and lucky.  Those of us who have endured the Nationals in years past would not be able to recognize such traits.  The Nationals, we came to believe, were tentative, quick to fold under pressure, willing to lose, and to a great extent just plain unlucky.

Not that the Nats are world-beaters at this point.  They continue to have serious problems in the rotation, and they don't look to be getting any better in that regard for a while.  With Lannan and Marquis hurt, the task of keeping the team in games has fallen on the shoulders of Craig Stammen, Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, and Luis Atilano.  This is not a rotation that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing teams.  Livan's luck notwithstanding, this set of pitchers is doomed to fall to the bottom of the league in pretty much every meaningful category.  So the team is going to have to rely on its bullpen, its defense, and its hitting.

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