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RobertArthur
Sep 28, 2008 Dec 16, 2011 3 306
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Milwaukee Brewers
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Macha disapproves of Escobar's first-inning bunt
From Thursday's JSOnline game notes:
For those wondering, manager Ken Macha did not order the sacrifice bunt by Alcides Escobar with Rickie Weeks on second base and no outs in the first inning Wednesay night. Escobar did that on his own and was told by bench coach Willie Randolph afterward it wasn't the right move. "This is a young kid," said Macha. "His thoughts were a team game. Playing for one run in the first inning is not something I endorse. You wind up wasting an at-bat."
Why does Macha have different rules for the first inning? I normally embrace his wonkish reliance on run-production stats, but I don't get this one. Why is a bunt to move the runner to third a bad thing in the first inning, when it presumably would be better in later innings? Aren't all outs equal?
Hoffman's latest blown save was much worse than you think
On Tuesday May 18th, 2010, Trevor Hoffman entered to pitch the bottom of the 9th inning against the Cincinnati Reds. Starting with a 2 run lead, the Brewers closer gave up a single, a two-RBI home run, a double, a walk, and another single to score the winning run for the Reds. It was arguably the most demoralizing blown save in recent Brewers memory.
However, you already knew that. Here's something you don't know: it was much worse than you think.
Using the Pitchf/x data from texasleaguers.com, I compared Hoffman's latest blown save to both his incredible 2009 season and his encouraging 2-save performance in early May. The data show that Hoffman's mechanics have taken a big step backward. On Tuesday against the Reds, both his fastball and changeup lacked any significant horizontal movement.
Hoffman's changeup was especially awful. It is common to say that a pitcher was "throwing batting practice" when they have a bad outing, but it usually is a figure of speech. On Tuesday, Hoffman's changeup was literally indistinguishable from a batting practice pitch thrown by coaches in their 60s. Don't give the Reds hitters too much credit for the blown save. Most people reading this could have hit Hoffman's changeup on Tuesday night. It was that bad.
Flashy Pf/x charts and graphs after the jump...
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Yes, there is something wrong with Hoffman's changeup.
After last night's 20-pitch blown save, Tom Hardricourt finally asked the question on everyone's minds: Where is Trevor Hoffman's famous changeup? Entering the game to ringing bells and a one-run lead on the Pirates, the future Hall of Famer threw 13 pitches (fastballs and sliders) before throwing one changeup. The result: five runs, "including a leadoff homer to No. 9 hitter Ronny Cedeno and a grand slam to Ryan Doumit."
I'm confident that everyone reading this can remember "Trevor Time" of 2009. Hoffman would calmly throw seemingly-hittable pitches, but batters were completely overmatched against him. His most devastating pitch? A 75 mph changeup that made hitters look silly. It was almost magical to watch. Brewers fans and opposing teams knew that when they heard the "Hell's Bells," the game was over and a one-inning demonstration of pitching mastery was about to begin.
So... what happened?
To help answer that question, I used PITCHf/x data at texasleaguers.com to compare Hoffman's pitches from the month of June 2009 to April 2010.
Yes, there is something wrong with Trevor Hoffman's changeup.
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