I was looking at Baseball America League Top 20s recently, and opened the 2003 Carolina League list. I had completely forgotten how prospects of the Bucs completely dominated the list. Five of the 20 were on the Lynchburg Hillcats, and all five played in the majors. Ryan Doumit had the second highest fWAR of the players on the list, but BA should get props for putting Greinke at the top of the list.

For each player I've included career fWAR through last year (NA means they have not played in the majors) and some illuminating quotes. The ones for Ryan Doumit and Chris Shelton are right on, but the one for John Van Benschoten is sad (knowing his subsequent injury history). And apparently Ian Snell (Oquendo in this list) lost sight of the strike zone when he changed his name.

I'm beginning to think it's hard to predict major league success.

1. Zack Greinke, rhp, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals) fWAR = 30.7

2. Jeremy Reed, of, Winston-Salem Warthogs (White Sox), fWAR = 2.3

3. Andy Marte, 3b, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves), fWAR = -2.0

4. John Van Benschoten, rhp, Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates), fWAR = -0.8

Van Benscoten cruised through the Carolina League, needing just just nine starts to warrant promotion to AA.

"He creates a very easy arm angle," Massarelli said. "I like to say he has an effortless fastball. With everything I had read about him, I was expecting him to be kind of raw. But what I saw was an extremely polished pitcher for being at this level. He definitely has big league presence out there."

Unfortunately, JVB had extensive shoulder surgeries in 2005, including labrum repair, rotator cuff debridement and thermal shrinkage. Van Benschoten holds the record for most career innings pitched with more runs allowed than innings pitched. He pitched 90 innings, allowing 92 earned runs.

5. Kris Honel, rhp, Winston-Salem Warthogs (White Sox), fWAR = NA

6. Edwin Encarnacion, 3b, Potomac Cannons (Reds), fWAR = 8.9

7. John Maine, rhp, Frederick Keys (Orioles), fWAR = 4.5

8. Dan Meyer, lhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves), fWAR = -0.1

9. Ian Oquendo, rhp, Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates), fWAR = 7.0

Oquendo's top pitch is a curveball that managers rated the best in the league. He has a second plus pitch in his low-90s fastball, and he has no problem finding the strike zone.

As a major leaguer, oddly, Snell rarely threw a curve. He threw his slider far more often. He also had a lot of trouble finding the strike zone, walking 4.17 per nine innings.

10. Bryan Bullington, rhp, Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates), fWAR = 0.0

Some scouts weren't impressed with Bullington's fastball, which was clocked in the 95 mph range in college but dropped to 89-91 late in his first pro season. His slider also wasn't as devastating as it was at Ball State. "Everything I had on him led me to believe that he was a lot better than what I saw," one scout said. "But when I saw it, I was kind of disappointed."

Bullington actually pitched quite well in AAA in 2010, showing a 2.82 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He pitched a bit for the Royals and then went to Japan. With the Carp he had 30 starts with an ERA of 2.42 and was named an All-Star. Maybe we should try to bring him back.

11. Macay McBride, lhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves), fWAR = 1.0

12. Ryan Doumit, c, Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates), fWAR = 9.6

"I like his bat a lot, but you give something up with him behind the plate," one manager said. "I have no problem with his arm strength. It's his ability to receive, call games and handle a staff that I question."

13. Ryan Wing, lhp, Winston-Salem Warthogs (White Sox), fWAR = NA

14. Rommie Lewis, lhp, Frederick Keys (Orioles), fWAR = -0.2

15. Ty Howington, lhp, Potomac Cannons (Reds), fWAR = NA

16. Hector Gimenez, c, Salem Avalanche (Astros), fWAR = -0.1

17. Chris Shelton, 1b/c, Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates), fWAR = 3.5

"The trouble is going to be finding a spot for him," one manager said. "I know this much, it definitely isn't behind the plate. "

18. Jared Gothreaux, rhp, Salem Avalanche (Astros), fWAR = NA

19. Willy Taveras, of, Kinston Indians, fWAR = 7.3

20. Andres Blanco, ss, Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals), fWAR = -0.4

BA lists Austin Kubitza as one of the top 50 sophomores. Seventh to be precise. In terms of scouting, the Bucs seem to have been right on. He was the Rice Friday night starter last year and has won all sorts of awards. None of these guys are draft-eligible,

In contrast, Kent Emanuel did nothing at UNC last year. (Unless you consider a four-hit complete-game shutout against Texas in the college world series worthy of note.) Dale Carey hit 0.271 for Miami, and Zack Weiss made 22 appearances, including nine midweek starts for UCLA. He went 5-3 with a 2.86 ERA, with 53 strikeouts and 22 walks in 66.0 innings.

As Tim Williams noted

As of the end of the 2011 season, only eight players from the entire 2008 draft class have produced a career 2.0 WAR or better, according to Baseball-Reference. That just shows that it’s too early to be expecting any team to have a player in the majors at this point, especially guys after the first round

Still, we keep expecting that our players will speed through the minors. Unlikely to happen. To make this a bit more concrete, here are the current outcomes for players drafted in the first ten rounds by NL Central teams. As the headline suggests, Pedro Alvarez has the most at-bats, and Josh Harrison (who was drafted by the Cubs) is second (to Brett Lawrie) in fWAR through 2011. Only 15 of the 67 draftees have had any playing time in the majors. There is also the interpretation question: Does ML playing time signal a good draft or a bad ML team? Based on fWAR, Milwaukee has had the best draft so far. Of course, with seven choices in the first three rounds, Milwaukee should have. Of course it's all due to Lawrie.

Here are the complete results

The Pirates have signed a bunch of them. Only one, Shairon Martis, appears to be more than minor league filler. Here's a run-down.

Nick Evans a 25-year-old first baseman, BR/TR, 256/305/407. His major league statistics suggest an AAAA player. A decent power hitter with adequate defensive ability and limited speed who could be a useful bench player or AAA depth.

Jake Fox, a 29-year-old catcher and first baseman, BR/TR, has a 301/370/584 slash line in four AAA seasons. He has never played in the majors, and probably never will. But if we get enough injuries, he might.

Brandon Boggs, a 28-year-old outfielder, BB/TR, has a 271/389/432 slash line in four AAA seasons. He has never played in the majors, and probably never will. He has some speed.

Stefan Welch, 23-year-old first baseman, BL/TR, has been stuck in the Florida State League for four years with a slash line of 266/344/415. The purpose of this signing is not clear.

Shairon Martis, a 24-year-old RHP, rather exploded in AA this year. In 133 innings he logged 8.3 hits per game, 0.6 home runs per game, 2.6 walks per game, and 9.9 strikeouts per game. He pitched for the Nationals in 2008 and 2009, but walked a lot of people. He might actually be a player.

Kyle Cofield, a 24-year-old RHP, has been bouncing around AA and AAA since 2009. As a minor league reliever for the White Sox he logged 8.3 hits per game, 0.0 home runs per game, 3.9 walks per game, and 7.5 strikeouts per game. Tough to get excited about.

Jose Diaz, a 27-year-old RHP, is gigantic. To quote WTM, "Some articles on him say he throws in the upper 90s and has hit 100. And he weighs a lot more than 300."

Jeremy Hefner, a 25-year-old RHP, had a good year in AA in 2010 and a bad year in AAA in 2011. He walks too many and strikes out too few to be of much interest.

You heard it here. The new agreement hurts the Yankees. A post on Yankees Fans Unite tells us that the new deal,

despite what many others have said, is not good for big market teams and especially the Yankees.

These are the Bronx Bombers, who paid out bonuses equal to 188% of Slot in 2010 and 175% of Slot in 2011 on high risk-high reward players with signability issues. Sound familiar? (The Bucs spent more than twice as much, paying bonuses equal to 180% of Slot in 2010 and 268% of Slot in 2011.)

Dave Cameron may have asked “Did a Steinbrenner Write the New CBA?" but it doesn't look like that from the Bronx. The poor Yankees. They always pick at the bottom of the draft and often lose high picks due to signing free agents

The only way they can get access to good talent is to draft high risk/high reward, signability guys in later rounds. However, with the new Slotting System and the severe penalties for going over, the Yanks can never do this anymore.

Makes you weep, doesn't it? Since 2007, the Yankees have only signed two First Round Picks (Brackman #30 and Heathcott #29) yet they are 11th in total Draft spending during that time. They did this by giving Mason Williams $1.45 million in Round 4, Greg Bird $1.1 million in round 5, Carmen Angelini $1.0 million in round 10, and big overslot bonuses to guys like Betances, Austin Jackson. Now those days are over.

But they'll still have Latin America, won't they? In 2010 the Mariners spent $6.47 million, the Yankees spent $5.27 million, and the Pirates were fourth at $5.00 million. Next year the cap is $2.9 million. In subsequent years the cap will be smaller for teams that win a lot and larger for teams that don't. So the answer is "No, the Yankees won't."

Personally, I think we should all send some nice gifts to Yankee fans and maybe a card. You know, to show our sympathy.

Actually, I think the blogger at Yankees Fans Unite understands the situation better than most people on this site.

Dayton Moore is the GM of the Royals. In a recent interview in the Kansas City Star, he shrugged off concerns regarding the draft spending limits.

"It’s actually better than the (recommendations put out by the commissioner’s office in the previous) slotting system,” he said, “where the commissioner would put pressure on owners, and owners would put pressure on general managers.

“We always had a budget. Now, our budget is going to be mandated by the CBA (collective-bargaining agreement). You have to work within the budget, and that’s what we’ll be prepared to do.”

Moore also noted that the Royals spent the way they did in anticipation of the new rules. (I'm not noting any parallels here, or anything.) Any problems will arise as the team becomes more competitive. Right now a team with a big draft pool can afford to take a flyer or two on a player who plans to go to college. A team with a small pool really will have trouble doing that.

One last quote from Dayton:

“Again, it comes down to scouting and player development. You’ve still got to pick the right guys, and you still have to develop them.”

So, chillax. The CBA is not the end of the world. It may not even be a problem.

First, tell me what happens in this situation. Gerrit Cole wants $8 million and slot is $4 million. He says he won't sign for $4 million. Will the Pirates pay $12 ($8 million plus $4 million in tax) plus a first round choice for him? No. Will the Mariners pay $13 million (assuming slot is $3.5 million for the second choice). I'd say not. Will the Yankees pay $15 million ($8 plus $7 million in tax) plus a first round choice? I suppose they might, but you can sign a good major league free agent for that. My take would be that Cole would sign for $4 million, and if he won't, the Pirates will know it in advance. He's going to know that most of the teams are going to ask, "Will you sign for slot?" If he won't they won't draft him, and slot is lower the longer he waits.

So yes, it changes the draft, because you won't give a Von Rosenburg $1 million, and he'll go to college. But the real change is in the international arena.

For the 2012-13 signing period, every team will a pool of $2.9 million to spend on international free agents. Starting in 2013-14, the pools will be based on the prior season's winning percentage, with a range of approximately $1.7 million to $4.8 million. So, in all likelihood, the Yankees and the Red Sox will be limited to $1.7 million. This will have two effects. First, teams will be more reluctant to give big bonuses. Second, the big money teams will not be able to outspend their small-revenue rivals. Many of the teams that sign US free agents turn to Latin America to make up for their loss of draft choices and late selections in the draft. For example, last year the Yankees' first pick was the 51st selection, and their next was the 81st. Take a look at the list below. Note who's at the top and who's at the bottom. 

My take is that amateurs will get smaller bonuses and lots of teams will be moving to beef up their Latin American operations. Teams with bad records will get extra high draft choices and won't have to out-bid the Yankees to sign Latin players. Why am I wrong?

At least that's what  Chris Cwik hears. In the last three years Barmes has generated more than 20 runs above replacement on defense. It's true that most of that has been erased by his offense, as he has produced 35 runs below replacement at the plate. This is all offset by the fact that he mans a premium position and runs well. Fangraphs believes that his value was $8.8 million in 2008, $7.7 million in 2009, $2.5 million in 2010, and $14.1 million in 2011. He's probably due for a major pay day, and the Giants are reportedly after Barmes. Do remember though, that the Giants are going to owe Lincecum north of $20 million next year. 

Given Jamey Carroll's two year, $6.5 million deal, it will probably take on the order of $8 million plus over two years to sign Barmes. Good deal? Bad deal? No deal? What do you think?

A number of these draftees have been playing professionally for three years, so for some we can start to get a feel for their potential. The good news is that several look quite promising.

Three things stand out for me in this draft. It's quite different from the 2008 draft, several late picks are looking promising, and a number of the top picks have not yet panned out (and its looking as though a couple simply will not). Players who signed are bolded. Aside from Sanchez, who would be your picks for the players most likely to make a real contribution at the major league level?

1(4) Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College had an ugly-looking year. His batting average fell from 0.314 at Bradenton in 2010 to 0.243 in Altoona in 2011. Walk and strikeout rates remained fine, but Sanchez simply was not hitting line drives. As he said, "I'm just not getting barrel to the ball as much as I was last year and I'm not driving the ball, and I don't know what the cause for that is." It's also useful to share Tim Williams's assessment of Sanchez's defense, "Defensively, Sanchez saw improvements on his game calling, and remained solid with his pitch blocking. He also got a full season under his belt for the first time, and handled it well, putting up high 1.80 pop times after over 100 games in September, despite never catching that many games in a season before. Sanchez does raise some concerns with his throwing accuracy, but overall his defense wasn't an issue this year like his offense was." There's not much question that Sanchez will play in the majors, but there's a lot of uncertainty about whether he will step up and become the starter that a 4th overall pick should become.

1s(49) Victor Black, RHP, Dallas Baptist, pitched 35 and 2/3 relief innings at A and A+ with an ERA of 5.05, 9.6 hits per game, 0.3 home runs per game, 5.0 walks per game, and 7.1 strikeouts per game. Brutal, especially for a supplemental first rounder, would be my assessment. He had a shoulder injury late in the spring, and that led a biceps injury.

2(53) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Temecula (CA) Valley HS, pitched 66 (mostly relief) innings at WV with an ERA of 3.68, 8.3 hits per game, 1.2 home runs per game, 1.9 walks per game, and 9.8 strikeouts per game. This is not bad. Had he not been unusually vulnerable to home runs (9) and hit batsmen (13!), this would have been an excellent statistical season. Tim Williams was impressed with his stuff, describing a 90-93 MPH fastball and excellent secondary pitches. Pounders has not been missing many meals, as he stands 6'4" and weighs 270.

3(84) Evan Chambers, OF, Hillsborough (FL) CC, had 525 plate appearances at Bradenton. His average was 0.234 and his wOBA+ was 108. He's been very consistent, which not a good thing in his case. I quote Charlie: "Unfortunately, Chambers wasn't able to parlay walks, power and speed to a good season in 2011, mostly because he has never shown the ability to make contact. He has never batted above .245 in a minor-league season. If he can start hitting .270 or .280 on a consistent basis, he'll be an interesting prospect, but the odds of him doing that are very small. Which is too bad, because he has some obvious skills."

4(115) Zack Dodson, LHP, Medina Valley HS, Castroville, TX, pitched at three levels with an ERA of 3.10, 8.8 hits per game, 0.6 home runs per game, 2.1 walks per game, and 6.4 strikeouts per game. That's half of the walks per game of 2010. Unfortunately, after getting off to a strong start, Dodson injured his hand, so he missed almost three months at West Virginia. Post injury reports were that Dodson was throwing 88-91 MPH, and touching 93, which is pretty good for a young left handed pitcher.

5(145) Nate Baker, LHP, Mississippi, pitched at Bradenton with an ERA of 3.34, 9.2 hits per game, 0.4 home runs per game, 3.1 walks per game, and 6.4 strikeouts per game. He's pitching in the AFL now, which would seem to suggest that he's a prospect.

6(175), Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Zachary (LA) HS, pitched at WV with an ERA of 5.73, 10.2 hits per game, 1.4 home runs per game, 1.6 walks per game, and 8.2 strikeouts per game. To quote Charlie, "Von Rosenberg is struggling to command his fastball right now, so while he seemed to be pretty polished for a high school pitcher when he was drafted, he now looks like sort of a lottery ticket."

7(205) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Brophy Prep, Phoenix, AZ, had the sort of year that makes Von Rosenberg's look OK. At WV and SC he had an ERA of 6.46, 12.5 hits per game, 1.2 home runs per game, 1.7 walks per game, and only 3.9 strikeouts per game. This sort of performance can get you released in spring training. Like Von Rosenberg, he was elevating his fastball.

8(235) Colton Cain, LHP, Waxahachie (TX) HS, pitched at WV with an ERA of 3.64, 7.8 hits per game, 0.5 home runs per game, 2.6 walks per game, and 6.9 strikeouts per game. He stayed healthy, but looks a lot like Dodson in terms of performance (although the final numbers mask that he had an ERA of 3.16 as a starter). He didn't throw nearly as hard as Dodson.

9(265) Brock Holt, 2B, Rice, played 98 games at second and 33 games at short for Altoona. He hit 0.288 with a wOBA+ of 104. Holt handled the jump to AA well, with a strong on-base percentage, but he lacks power. He's got plenty of speed and can handle short well enough to be a utility player. Not too shabby for a ninth rounder. He's in the Arizona Fall League now.

10(295) Joey Schoenfeld, C, Santiago HS, Garden Grove, CA, has had a grand total of 102 at bats in three years. He was released at mid-season.

11(325) Aaron Baker, 1B, Oklahoma, got us Derrek Lee for a month.

12(355) Jeff Inman, RHP, Stanford, pitched 36 innings (mostly at Bradenton) with an ERA of 2.00 and 7.0 hits per game, 1.5 walks per game, and 4.5 strikeouts per game. Were it not for that troublesome elbow, we might be getting excited about Inman. He's in the Arizona Fall League now.

13(385) Walker Gourley, 3B, Eastern Wayne HS, Goldsboro, NC, has not apparently been released despite a career batting average of 0.177.

14(415) Marcos Reyna, RHP, Bakersfield (CA) JC, DNS
15(445) Peter Bako, RHP, Connors State (OK) JC, DNS
16(475) Matt den Dekker, OF, Florida, DNS
17(505) Jordan Cooper, RHP Central HS, Shelbyville, TN, DNS

18(535) Ryan Beckman, RHP, Grayson County (TX) CC, threw 58 innings for WV and Bradenton with an ERA of 2.79. And no, I didn't know that either. He allowed 7.6 hits per game, 0.2 home runs per game, 3.1 walks per game, and 8.0 strikeouts per game. Quite nice.

19(565) Josh Urban, RHP, Dripping Springs (TX) HS, DNS
20(595) Sam Spangler, LHP, Hawaii, DNS

21(625) Phillip Irwin, RHP, Mississippi, pitched 141 innings at WV and Altoona with an ERA of 3.14, 8.8 hits per game, 0.8 home runs per game, 1.4 walks per game, and 7.0 strikeouts per game. He emphasized the sinker once he got to Altoona, with very nice results.

22(655) Carmine Giardina, LHP, Tampa, DNS

23(685) Jose Hernandez, INF, Texas-San Antonio, was released by Pirates, July 15, 2011.

24(715) Jason Erickson, RHP, Washington, pitched 71 innings (mostly in relief) for Bradenton with an ERA of 4.33. he allowed 2.55 walks per game and struck out 6.50 per game. It's hard to see him as a real prospect.

25) 745) Aaron LaFountaine, OF, North HS, Riverside, CA , DNS
26(775) Matt Dermody, LHP, Norwalk (IA) HS, DNS
27(805) Wes Luquette, C, Newman HS, New Orleans, LA, DNS
28(835) Kyle Hooper, RHP, Saugus (CA) HS, DNS
29(865) Michael Heller, RHP, Cardinal Mooney HS, Bradenton, FL , DNS

30(895) Ty Summerlin, SS, Southeastern Louisiana, was placed on restricted list, June 9, 2010.

31(925) Zach Taylor, OF, Statesboro (GA) HS, DNS.
32(955) Niko Spezial, LHP, Don Bosco Prep, Ramsey. NJ, DNS.

33(985) Pat Irvine, OF, Elon, NC, was released by Pirates on March 28, 2011.

34(1015) Zac Fuesser, LHP, Walters State (TN) CC, was one of a trio of lefties at WV. He had an ERA of 3.74, 9.2 hits per game, 1.2 home runs per game, 2.7 walks per game, and 7.9 strikeouts per game. He had a great start, but tailed off in July and August.

35(1045, Chris McKenzie, RHP, San Jacinto (TX) JC, DNS
36(1075) Bobby Doran, RHP, Seward County (KS) CC, DNS
37(1105) Zach Nuding, RHP, Weatherford (TX) JC, TX , DNS
38(1135) Jake Lamb, 3B, Bishop Blancet HS, Seattle, Wash. , DNS
39(1165) Keifer Nuncio, RHP, Katy (TX) HS, DNS
40(1195) Brett Lee, LHP, West Florida HS, Pensacola, FL, DNS
41(1225) Tyler Cannon, SS, Virginia, DNS
42(1255) Marc Baca, RHP, Nevada-Las Vegas, was released in May of 2011.
43(1285) Edward Fallon, RHP, South Carolina-Upstate, DNS
44(1315) Dexter Bobo, LHP, Georgia Southern, DNS
45(1345) Kevin Gelinas, LHP, Central Arizona JC, DNS
46(1375) Parker Bangs, RHP, South Carolina, , DNS
47(1405) Justin Earls, LHP, Georgia, , DNS
48(1435) Blake Brown, OF, Normal West HS, IL, DNS
49(1465) Yasser Clor, RHP, California, DNS
50(1495) Matt Taylor, LHP, Columbus (GA) HS, DNS

Last year I took a look at everyone who was drafted by the Pirates in the 2008 draft. I return to that draft class a year older, but not much wiser. Last year's comments are bold for players who signed. This year's updates are in italics. 

This still looks like a very solid draft. It could be a great draft, but that depends on what Alvarez and Grossman do. But props to NH on this one. It looks better today than last year.

1(2), Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt. Playing third for the Bucs, but might turn into a better offensive and defensive first baseman than Ryan Howard. A wRC+ of 57 with the Pirates, but one can still hope.

2(48), Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State. Now a top prospect of the Rangers, but wanted first-round money to sign in 2008 while injured.Still varying opinions about him. I quote John Sickels  "Health and command remain issues, but even a small improvement would get him to the majors quickly." Still tantalizing after all these years, he pitched just 44 innings in 2011.

3(79), Jordy Mercer SS, Oklahoma State. Had an OPS of 699 at Altoona last year, keeping offensive worries alive. Seems to be a capable shortstop, so he might make the majors. Seems to be showing enough to be considered as a Pirates 2012 shortstop candidate.

4(114), Chase d'Arnaud SS, Pepperdine. Had a disappointing offensive year at AA, with dreadful BABIP and an OPS of only 709. With even a moderate rebound he'll make the majors. Rebounded nicely in AAA and made the Pirates when the bodies started falling. A shortstop?

5(144), Justin Wilson LHP, Fresno State. Reduced his FIP from 4.90 to 3.49 at AA. John Sickles's #9 prospect, who notes that "he does need to lower his walk rate." Justin must have misread John. He increased his walk rate, and his FIP soared to 4.66 in AAA.

6(174), Robbie Grossman  OF, Cypress-Fairbanks HS, Cypress, TX. Had an OPS of 683 at Bradenton last year. Seems to be a capable center fielder. Reduced his strikeout rate from 31% to 21%, which is still too high. Looks like a good draft pick, doesn't it.

7(204), Benji Gonzalez SS, PRBA, Gurabo, P.R. A glove-first shortstop who still has not hit. Had an OPS of 579 at WV, though the second half was better than the dreadful first half. Still not hitting, after all these years. I quote Charlie: "Gonzalez remains a terrible hitter, but he'll keep getting chances because guys who can field at shortstop in the majors are rare." 

8(234), Jeremy Farrell 3B, Virginia. Had an OPS of 856 at Bradenton and was mid-season all star. Missed time due to injury. Still may be a prospect, but may need to move from third. A quote from Vlad gives a good indication of how Farrell's season went: " I think you do Holt a disservice by grouping him in with Farrell and Latimore like that. " Ouch.

9(264), Matt Hague 3B, Oklahoma State. Had an OPS of 819 at Altoona (14th in league),. Still a prospect, but will have to show more power. Had an average of 310, an on-base percentage of 373, and a wRC+ of 128. Power still on the short side, but might be playing in Pittsburgh in 2012.

10(294), Drew Gagnon RHP, Liberty HS, Brentwood, CA. DNS

11(324), David Rubinstein  OF, Appalachian State. Had an OPS of 755 at West Virginia. He may still be a prospect, though he's getting a bit old for his level. Did not show much this year either. He had a 247 average and a wRC+ of 87.

12(354), Calvin Anderson 1B, Southern. A huge (and apparently poor fielding), first baseman who had an OPS of 720 and 141 K at Bradenton. Like everyone else, he hit at Bradenton. So, he's still in the mix.

13(384), Seth Gardner  OF, Highland Park HS, Dallas. DNS

14(414), Mike Colla RHP, Arizona. A reliever at Bradenton and Altoona with unimpressive FIP but decent BB and K rates. Here I quote Tim Williams: "Michael Colla was a big surprise, getting thrown in to the rotation after Bryan Morris was moved to the bullpen, and sticking there due to a 3.72 ERA in 123.1 innings, along with a 96:35 K/BB ratio."  I would never have predicted this. And now he's pitching in the AFL.

15(444), Chris Aure LHP, North Pole (Alaska) HS. Released in 2010. Never made it out of the GCL.

16(474), Wes Freeman  OF, All Saints Academy, Lakeland, FL. Had an OPS of 495 at West Virginia. Hard to imagine he's still a prospect. Took a step back and actually hit well, but, to quote Charlie: " Wes Freeman made the transition from complete flop to semi-prospect with a strong campaign that got him promoted to West Virginia. Plenty of lingering doubts.

17(504), Jaron Shepherd  OF, Navarro (TX) JC DNS

18(534), Jarek Cunningham SS, Mount Spokane HS, Spokane, WA. Had an OPS of 745 at West Virginia after missing 2009 with a knee injury. Played second base and is still in the mix. Playing in the AFL after showing more power in the FSL.

19(564), Jason Haniger C Georgia Tech DNS

20(594), Quinton Miller RHP, Shawnee HS, Medford, NJ. FIP of 3.66 in 10 starts for WV despite arm miseries. Adam Reynolds observes that, "He's built up a medical record, but he has major league stuff when on the field." No good news here. He was injured and pitched poorly when on the field.

21(624), Brent Klinger RHP, Glendale (AZ) CC. DNP in 2010, but still with Pirates (reinstated from DL at the end of the season). Released in July.

22(654), Patrick Palmeiro 3B, Heritage HS, Colleyville, TX DNS

23(684), Austin Wright LHP, Conant HS, Hoffman Estates, IL DNS

24(714), Brian Litwin 3B, St. Stephens HS, Hickory, NC DNS

25(744), Brian Leach RHP, Southern Mississippi. A starter for Bradenton with a FIP of 3.72. Still a prospect. Pitched badly with major control issues.

26(774), Zach Wilson 3B, Wilson HS, Long Beach, CA DNS

27(804), Edwin Roman  OF, PRBA, Gurabo, P.R. Never made it out of the GCL.

28(834), Kyle Saukko RHP, Sierra (CA)  JC Released in 2010. 

29(864), Kevin Komstadius 1B, East Valley HS, Yakima, WA DNS

30(894), Daniel Martin RHP, Panola (TX) JC DNS

31(924), Ryan Hinson LHP, Clemson DNS

32(954), T.J. Forrest RHP, Bossier Parish (LA) CC DNS

33(984), Mark Carver 1B, UNC Wilmington No longer in baseball

34(1014), Matt Payne 3B, North Carolina State Released in 2009

35(1,044), Tyler Cox LHP, Illinois State. An effective reliever for Bradenton. Pitched well at Bradenton and got promoted, but is he a prospect?

36(1,074), Kyle Morgan  OF, San Francisco. Released after 2010 season.

37(1,104), Matt Curry 1B, Howard (TX) JC DNS

38(1,134), Alan Knotts RHP, Louisiana Tech. Apparently out of baseball.

39(1,164), Albert Fagan RHP, Yonkers, N.Y. Released in 2009

40(1,194), Beau Didier 3B, Bellarmine Prep, Tacoma, WA DNS

41(1,224), Chris Simmons C Army. Had to fulfill Army commitment.

42(1,254), Cole White  OF, Army. Came back from Army commitment and had OPS of 723 at State College. Hit pretty well at WV and Bradenton. Has not had a break out.

43(1,284), Johnny Gunter RHP, Chattahoochee Valley (AL) CC DNS

44(1,314), Mike Williams LHP, Mount Olive, NC, JC. Not impressive in relief at WV.

45(1,343), Allen Ponder RHP, Auburn-Montgomery Put on restricted list in May of 2009, not heard of since.

46(1,371), Scott McGough SS, Plum HS, Pittsburgh DNS

47(1,398), Jordan Craft  OF, Kennesaw Mountain HS, GA DNS

48(1,425), Owen Brolsma RHP, Texas Tech Released at the end of 2009

49(1,452), Zach Foster RHP, Pittsburgh-Bradford. The closer for WV, but FIP of 5.04. Probably not a prospect any more. Pitched in some high-leverage situations for Bradenton. Sort of an odd year, but still pitching.

50(1,479), Craig Parry  OF, South Dakota State Released after spring training in 2010

Amid the dismay about the likely decision to decline Mahom's option, I think an important point has been missed: It is likely that one can get comparable performance for substantially less than $9.75 million. Let's take a look at some existing contracts.

Chris Capuano has a base salary of $1.5 million with potential bonuses of $3.0 million. Jeff Francis has a base salary of $2.0 million and no bonus. Erik Bedard has a salary of $1.0 million and no bonus. Freddy Garcia has a salary of $1.5 million and no bonus. Bartolo Colon has a salary of $0.9 million and no bonus.

The $5 million per additional win is what's misleading. As Bill Barnwell points out, $5 million per incremental win is what incompetent management does. In 2010 the only teams spending $5 million per incremental win were the Cubs and Seattle. Need I say more? Paul Maholm is a perfectly capable pitcher, and I'd be happy to have him pitching for the Pirates next year. But not at a salary of $9.75 million. There are other uses for the money, and I think that's what's driving NH's decision.

In the light of the furor over the non-ranking of a bunch of seemingly promising Pirates' prospects from the FSL, I though it would be interesting to look at a few other team's ranked prospects. I've pulled together BA's ranked prospects for NL Central teams for AAA, AA, and A+. My thought was that we might learn something by looking at prospects that we don't care about, perhaps learning a bit about the strengths and weaknesses of the ranking process.

Pacific Coast League

8. Brett Jackson, of, Iowa Cubs, was drafted in the first round (31st) out of Cal in 2009. He has hit well every year with increasing power. He is a center fielder.

9. Jordan Lyles, rhp, Oklahoma City Redhawks (Astros), was drafted in the first round (38th) out of high school in 2008. He’s not a power pitcher, but holding batters to a 3.61 ERA in this league is an accomplishment. He only struck out six per game, so he’s probably not an elite prospect.

18. Logan Schafer, of, Nashville Sounds (Brewers), was drafted in the 3rd round of 2008 out of Cal Poly. He’s a center fielder who doesn’t strike out, walk, or homer much. He hits for average and was called up by the Brewers in September.

International League

3. Devin Mesoraco, c, Louisville Bats (Reds), was drafted out of high school in the first round (15th) in 2007. Had brutal years in 2007 and 2009, with a very ordinary 2008, but had a very nice 2010 and 2011.

11. Zack Cozart, ss, Louisville Bats (Reds), was drafted in the second round in 2007 out of the University of Mississippi. He had a nice second season in AAA. Has always shown flashes of power, but in two seasons of A ball and two seasons of AA, he averaged in the 260s. He had TJ surgery this summer, so there’s a risk.

13. Yonder Alonso, 1b/of, Louisville Bats (Reds), was drafted in the first round (7th) out of the University of Miami in 2008. He averaged 0.293 in the minors. Although still a well-thought-of prospect, he has fallen from 35th prior to 2009, to 45th prior to 2010, to 73rd prior to 2011. He has a bit more power than Matt Hague, but not quite enough for a major league first baseman and not nearly enough to unseat Joey Votto. He’s not a credible outfielder and no more than an average first baseman.

18. Alex Presley, of, Indianapolis Indians (Pirates) was drafted out of the University of Mississippi in the 8th round (230th overall) of 2006. He spent six years in the minors and had an indifferent hitting line until 2010, when he exploded.

20. Todd Frazier, of/3b/1b, Louisville Bats (Reds), was drafted out of Rutgers in the first round (34th) in 2007. He’s in his third AAA season.

Texas League

14. Zack Cox, 3b, Springfield Cardinals, was drafted out of Arkansas in the first round (25th) in 2010. He can hit and was promoted to AA after 180 at bats. The question is whether there will be enough power to offset what is anticipated to be below-average defense at third.

Southern League

4. Brett Jackson, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs). See write up for PCL.

9. Yasmani Grandal, c, Carolina Mudcats (Reds), was drafted out of Miami in the first round (12th) of 2010. He can hit, but doesn’t have a lot of power. He is not a very good catcher at this point.

Eastern League

7. Starling Marte, of, Altoona Curve (Pirates)
20. Kyle McPherson, rhp, Altoona Curve (Pirates)

Florida State League

1. Shelby Miller, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals was drafted out of high school in the first round (19th) in 2009. Although his performance was unimpressive in 2009 and 2010, BA tagged him as a top prospect prior to 2010. He was promoted to AA after nine starts, where he pitched almost as well (albeit with control issues at both levels).

6. Carlos Martinez, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals was signed as a free agent in 2010. Obviously he has moved up extremely fast, but this has to be a scouting call, as his performance in the FSL was unimpressive. An ERA over five with a WHIP of 1.72 and 5.9 walks per nine innings doesn’t usually cut it. Apparently he has a big fastball even though he’s just over six feet.

8. Matt Szczur, of, Daytona Cubs was signed out of Villanova in 2010. He is very fast and has moved fast through the Cubs system. On the other hand, he hit 0.260 with a slugging percentage of 0.410.

11. Zack Cox, 3b, Palm Beach Cardinals was promoted to AA after 180 at bats. See that write up.

14. Tyler Thornburg, rhp, Brevard County Manatees (Brewers) was drafted in the third round of 2010. He split time between A and A+ giving up very few hits and striking out over 10 per game.

California League

5. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Lancaster Jethawks (Astros), was drafted by the Phillies in the 8th round of the 2008 draft. He can hit and has some power. He plays first base.

10. Yasmani Grandal, c, Bakersfield Blaze (Reds), see the SL write up.

Carolina League

No ranked candidates from the NL Central.

What I Concluded

There's something of a halo effect. High draft choices get noticed, and their strengths get talked about. The rankings change in light of performance, but projection remains a core part of the process.

Projection makes sense. A number of these players had brutal years at some point. Devin Mesoraco and Alex Presley are good examples. Most of these prospects have weaknesses. It's hard to forecast which will be career-limiting and which will be resolved.

A big skill will get you noticed, even if it's offset by other issues. See Diego Moreno (or Carlos Martinez?) for an instance.

It usually takes time, though college hitters can advance quickly on occasion. 

Defense gets underrated. It's hard to measure and batting is such a hard skill. 

The Reds have a lot of well-thought-of prospects. They don't emphasize defense in their choices.

It's hard for a funny-looking, undrafted player to stand out. But if Ramon Cabrera leads the Eastern League in hitting next year, it won't matter that he's 5'7" and weighs 200 pounds. That may be the true lesson of Moneyball. People who look like baseball players, like Billy Beane, and who have athletic skills get noticed. Of course most players don't make the majors and few who do succeed.

What's your take.

Let's start with some good news. Thus far in 2011 The Pirates have scored 3.72 runs per game (14th in the National League). They have allowed 4.34 runs per game (10th in the National League). How is that good news? Well, last year they  scored 3.62 runs per game (last in the National League) and they allowed 5.35 runs per game (last in the National League). That's a reduction of a run allowed per game, which is huge, and a modest improvement in offense.

But what about the collapse? What happened? It wasn't obvious to me, amidst the wailing about the dreadful offense of the Pirates. What happened was the pitching fell apart in August and September. (Actually runs allowed per game could be a product of suddenly awful defense, but I don't think so.) The offense was putrid, but it had been all along.

The questions are, "What can be done? What should be done?" I don't see an immediate solution in the minors. Am I wrong? What trades could be made? 

I'm sure Charlie will do a recap on the Bradenton season shortly, but a quick look at their season impressed me no end. We've already heard about Cabrera winning the batting title, but there's more. A batting champ can have an "empty" average, but Cabrera's wasn't. If you look at the wOBA rankings Santos was 4th, Grossman was 5th, Cabrera was 6th, and Gonzalez was 12th. Gonzalez had 36 doubles, Grossman had 34, Cabrera had 25, and Santos had 22. These would seem to promise real power down the road. And of course there's Jarek Cunningham, who hit 15 home runs in 310 at bats.

But for me the real news was pitching. In addition to solid performances by Lorin and Baker, the graduates were very impressive: Irwin, Inman, Welker, Cox, and McPherson. Of course McPherson was the most impressive, moving from A+ to AA and turning in a very strong performance at both levels.

All the news from Florida wasn't bad.

Ronny Cedeno gets little love in these pages. If you use Fangraphs' Wins above Replacement data over the last two years, Ronny shows up 17th among major league shortstops. Using these metrics Ronny is 7th in fielding and 63rd in hitting. From my perspective that makes replacing him a low priority, but given the limited opportunities to improve the 2012 Pirates it should be considered.

Who might represent an improvement and be available? The pool is pretty small.

Jose Reyes may be a free agent. He's a much better hitter than Cedeno, but a significantly worse fielder these days. That was news to me. He used to be a superb fielder, but has been subpar for the last three years.

Hanley Ramirez might be available. Over the last two years he's been below-average with the glove and average at bat. He actually ranks behind Cedeno in terms of Wins above Replacement, but might be a candidate to do more. In 2006-2010 he hit well above average, so he could be an expensive bounce-back gamble. The Marlins have been forced to play Emilio Bonifacio at short this year, and he's responded well. A below-average (but not dreadful) fielder, Bonifacio can really hit for a shortstop. 

Steven Drew would involve really rolling the dice that he can recover, so the targets (if any) are likely to involve talented minor leaguers (which will take some serious talent in return). This list is not long either.

Hak-Ju Lee or Darwin Barney might be available from the Cubs. Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox seems unlikely to be available. And, it is hard to project that he will be significantly better than say Jordy Mercer after all the hype is done. What other options do you see? I must confess I'm a bigger Cedeno fan now than when I started this post.

This offers a quick overview of the performance of top pitching prospects. The news was better last year. Lincoln is left out because of too many MLB innings.

1. Jameson Taillon (19) RHP - (3.66 ERA / 3.03 FIP / 1.39 BB/9 / 8.53 K/9)

Has lived up to his reputation.

2. Stetson Allie (20) RHP - (5.40 ERA /4.20 FIP /7.20 BB/9 /10.20 K/9)

Only 15 innings and struggling with control , but off to a decent start at State College.

3. Luis Heredia (16) RHP - (4.00 ERA / 4.87 FIP / 9.00 BB/9 / 6.00 K/9)

Only 9 GCL innings. Lots of walks. Would still be in HS if raised in the States.

4. Bryan Morris (24) RHP - (3.65 ERA / 3.28 FIP / 3.67 BB/9 / 7.52 K/9)

In relief in AA.

5. Rudy Owens (23) LHP - (5.27 ERA /4.08 FIP / 2.49 BB/9 /5.41 K/9)

Has struggled in AAA .  Strikeouts and velocity are down; walks are up.

6. Jeff Locke (23) LHP - ( ERA / 3.42 FIP / 3.63 BB/9/ 8.80 K/9) 

Very inconsistent in AA. Walks are up, which might explain things.

7. Zack Von Rosenberg (20) RHP - (7.39 ERA / 4.59 FIP / 1.70 BB/9/ 8.14 K/9)

Getting getting hit hard in WV, but some nice peripherals.

9. Colton Cain (20) LHP -  (3.15 ERA / 3.36 FIP / 2.54 BB/9/ 7.18 K/9)

Best results of the 2009 HS pitchers.

9. Justin Wilson (23) LHP - (3.80 ERA /4.65 FIP /4.39 BB/9 /6.88 K/9)

Control is still an issue.

10. Diego Moreno (25) RHP - (5.34 ERA / 3.80 FIP /4.47 BB/9 / 10.21 K/9)

Has had injuries.

What jolted my thinking was an excellent article about the Brewers by Rany Jazayerli. It's called "Undervalued Sluggers: Can the Milwaukee Brewers play winning baseball without playing defense?" I recommend it.

In the article he talks about the Atlanta Braves going from worst in '90 to first in '91. They did it by improving defense.

In 1990, the Braves ranked dead last in defensive efficiency; their defense turned only 69.8 percent of balls in play into outs. In 1991, that number jumped to 73.4 percent — best in the National League.

I wonder what happened to the defensive efficiency of the Pirates? Well, in 2010 they converted 69.8 percent of balls in play into outs. Eerie, isn't it. So far in 2011, they are converting 71.6 percent of balls in play into outs.That's 12th in the majors. FYI, the Cubs are 30th, Astros are 29th, Brewers are 24th, Cards are 18th, and the Reds are 4th.

Hmm. Maybe getting Carlos Pena would be a good idea after all. His defense played a role in moving the Rays from clank to crisp on defense.

To answer this question I'll take the top 10 position prospects from the Pirates Prospects Position Guide and look at their on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. I'll also try to offer some context by looking back to last year.

Starling Marte, Altoona, AA, (OBP = 351/SLG =455/OPS =806). For the last ten games (283/341/624). This performance nearly equals last year's, although July has been a bit ugly. Still a nice line, and the slugging is up a bit (23 doubles and 5 HR versus 19 and 3 last year). Here's a quote from BA,

Marte's defense will accelerate his rise, as will his intelligence and ambition. But his strike-zone discipline will have to keep pace. Ticketed for Double-A in 2011, he could push Andrew McCutchen to an outfield corner when he arrives in Pittsburgh.

His strike zone issues do not appear to have been solved, though AA pitchers are not able to take advantage of them.

Tony Sanchez, Altoona, AA, (346/314/661). For the last ten games only (318/333/652). This is disappointing, as the OPS is 200 points below last year's. The hitting will have to improve for him to remain a top prospect, although the glove should carry him to the majors in some capacity.

Andrew Lambo,  Altoona, AA, (265/307/572). For the last ten games (348/439/787). Well, there are a few hopeful signs recently, although this has been a bad year for Lambo. This is his third year in AA, and it's hard to consider Lambo a top prospect anymore (especially since his tool is hitting).

Chase d'Arnaud, Pittsburgh Pirates. Not much to say. He may not be up to stay, but last year's poor performance is no longer a concern. (Note, he wasn't hitting a Indy when he was called up, so his struggles with the Pirates were to be expected. His season stats at Indy were fine, though: 347/418/766.)

Mel Rojas, West Virginia, A, (298/345/643).  For the last ten games the numbers are better, but still not outstanding (318/634/952). Two doubles, two triples, and three home runs in the last 10 games suggest that the power tool is starting to emerge. He had no home runs or triples last year.

Jarek Cunningham, Bradenton, A+, (323/534/857). Fifteen home runs this year, and he's been on fire during the last 10 games (400/545/945). He has definitely moved up in the rankings. Looks like a pretty good 18th round pick up.

Exicardo Cayonez, ?, (189/063/252). As Charlie noted a couple of days ago

after going 2-for-32 for State College, he's back in the GCL. 

He actually is not on that roster yet, but this has been a brutal year for him.

Gorkys Hernandez, Indianapolis, AAA, (350/409/759). In the last 10 games he's been almost as hot as Jerek Cunningham. He hit a home run!!! and had a slash line of 390/579/969, which is excellent. Given his excellent defensive skills, this makes Hernandez a legitimate prospect again. He's in AAA, dong well, and is 23.

Brock Holt,  Altoona, AA, (338/382/720). He seems to have heated back up in July going 341/405/747, so he's in the picture, but not dazzling. This is not as good as last year, (410/438/848), but is still decent.

Only Cayonez and Lambo are raising serious doubts, and one hopes Cayonez can bounce back.

That was Ray Miller's mantra in the heyday of the Orioles. Notice he didn't mention anything about striking tons of people out. That seems to apply to most Pirate pitchers not named Hanrahan.

The Pirates pitching staff According to Harry Pavlidis over at Fangraphs,

This is a good pitching staff. Along with the Cardinals, the Bucs are one-two in the division in strike rate, SLGCON and groundball rate.

(I've never heard of SLGCON. You?)

The starters really fall into four groups. Maholm and Correia are performing almost exactly as you would hope, given their career numbers. For each, 2010 appears to be the anomaly.

Karstens is pitching a bit better than last year, and has been much more fortunate. It shouldn't be too surprising that a pitcher does better with a bit of experience.

Morton's turn-around needs no further explanation.

Now dtoddwin noted

On the mound they are 12th in FIP, 15 in xFIP, but 6th in ERA. As you might suspect from those numbers, the staff is dead last in K/9 because the starters can't strike anybody out, averaging only 5.4K/9.

But that's not the whole story. These guys throw strikes and don't walk many (6th in the NL). They also get a lot of ground balls (5th in the NL). Since they throw a lot more two-seam fastballs than the typical starter, that's no shock. They may have been a bit lucky. They are 10th in BABIP and home runs per fly ball. But then it's hard to hit a home run or a line drive on a two-seam fastball.

So, which is it: "Chicken wire, duct tape, and spit" or "Throw strikes, work fast, and change speeds?"

He's not a star. Never was. He had an OPS+ of 136 for Atlanta in 2009 and an OPS+ of 102 for Atlanta in 2010. In 140 at bats for the Pirates he has surged to an OPS+ of 81, meaning that he trails such worthies as Xavier Paul, Ronny Cedeno, Willie Bloomquist, and Orlando Hudson. All is lost.

But note the trend. His OPS was 0.223 in April, 0.300 in May, and 0.333 so far in June. Maybe all is not lost. He's very close to the on-base forecasts of various ZIPS systems. But so far there has been little power, which is a bit of a surprise. Perhaps we can hope that what we've seen is just the luck of small sample size. He could get better. And remember, what we're missing is seeing Garrett Jones flail helplessly against lefties. He of the career 0.203 batting average against them.

It could be worse. We could be stuck with Jason Bay. He's also got OPS+ of 81. Imagine him in right field. (Or left these days.) He is guaranteed $16 million for 2011-2013 plus a $17 million club option ($3M buyout) for 2014.

It could be better. I guess it's a platoon of Pearce and Jones at first until Alvarez moves there. What's the way forward? Anyone?

Sorry to see this. Obviously this affects all of the NL Central, as

The Cardinals now have yet another hole in their lineup due to injury--a three-time MVP sized hole.

It makes the injury situation of the Pirates look benign (knocking on wood). Look at this disabled list. It's scary.

And Holiday just got back. I can't imagine the Cards competing for long without Albert.

Of course it's amazing that the Pirates are still not dead last with all of their injuries. But there is no one named Pujols on their disabled list. Or on their team, for that matter. Does anyone know when Pearce, Alvarez, and Doumit are supposed to be back?

Let's not over-react, but a complete inability to score runs makes it hard to win ball games.

A possible solution is to move Jones to first, release Overbay, send down Ciriaco, and bring up d'Arnaud and Presley. That would probably mean playing Presley in Left, and moving Tabata to Right. And Jones (with an OPS of 207 versus left handers) would be exposed to left handers, Not to worry. Jones had an OPS of 220 versus left handers last year, so he should improve. But it won't be pretty, especially when Jones is asked to make a challenging play at first and then bat against a left hander in the next half inning. Please excuse me while I cringe.

The assumption is that Presley would play Left and Tabata would play Right. That's also assuming that Presley, not Paul, would get the added playing time. Xavier Paul at age 23 in Las Vegas  had an OPS+ = 108 and WOBA+ = 104. Alex Presley at age 25 in Indianapolis had an OPS+ = 118 and WOBA+ = 109. But Las Vegas is a plus park for hitters, and Indianapolis is a neutral to minus park for hitters. So my take would be that Presley is a better prospect, especially when you factor in his apparently better fielding.A complication is that Presley plays center and left (for the most part), Probably better than Paul, though his arm is short for right.

I'd really appreciate a better solution than this. Please help.

Brandon Cumpton gave up seven (count 'em, seven) earned runs in each of his first three starts (never getting into the fifth inning). He also had six strikeouts, six walks, and gave up four home runs. Oddly, he did not start the next game.

Over his next five starts Cumpton gave up a total of four earned runs, struck out 26, and walked 5 over 31 innings. Quite a turn-around, suggesting a promotion from West Virginia might be in order. Of course it probably should be. Cumpton was drafted out of Georgia Tech in 2010. Though he pitched in the weekend rotation, he didn't fool too many people. Baseball America commented that he

had trouble throwing his average 89-93 mph fastball and inconsistent curveball for strikes for much of the season but still was 8-2, 4.86 and pitched in the weekend rotation all season.

So, what's the story here? Who can tell us why Cumpton has gotten better? Does he look like a real prospect or just a ninth-round college guy playing in A-ball?

Jim Callis of Baseball America on the selection of Brian Bullington (in response to a question about choosing Danny Hultzen: 

People don't remember this, because then-GM David Littlefield called Bullington a No. 3 starter on draft day, but Bullington was as good as any prospect not named Upton in that 2002 draft. He had a 92-96 mph fastball, a hard slider, good command and a good frame. We ranked Bullington as the third-best prospect that year (behind Upton and Kazmir), and we have Hultzen as the third-best this year. If Rendon and Cole were at their best, to me, I'd take them over Hultzen. But it's hard to use that No. 1 pick on someone not at their best, so that puts Hultzen into the discussion. He has a little less velo and size than Bullington, but he's a lefty who had more polish and a deeper repertoire.

Hultzen anyone? PS, my next door neighbor said that Dave was a great little league parent.

Those of you who obsessively watch the Altoona statistics have noted that Jordy Mercer heated up considerably in May. He moved from an OPS of 579 in April to an OPS of 991 through yesterday in May. Drafted as a true shortstop with some pop, Mercer has not really dazzled as yet. Sure he hit better than d'Arnaud last year, but that's not saying a whole lot.

The flip side is that there has been fairly steady improvement. The strikeout rate has been fairly steadily trending down during his tenure in the minors, and the walk rate has been trending up. Mercer appears to be a better shortstop than d'Arnaud. The weak stats that we have show Mercer with a 4.71 Range Factor per 9 innings and a fielding percentage of 0.965. For d'Arnaud the numbers are 4.24 and 0.955. Anyone have personal info or better data to help make this comparison?

The issue has been lack of pop. Mercer has an Isolated Power number of 0.127 thus far.  In contrast, d'Arnaud is at 0.143 for his career (and right there this year).  So far this year everything is working for Mercer. If he keeps hitting like this he's going to be pushing some people.

One of the problems over the years with the Pirates has been player development. Add that to skimping on talent acquisition and you have a recipe for losing. We've been told that this was changed with the new management, but it's been difficult to find concrete examples of that. There's been talk of developing fastball command, but it has been less than clear what's going on for me.

Well Tim Williams has offered an interview with Jim Benedict, the Minor League Pitching Coordinator of the Pirates that really puts things in context for me.

In Part 1 Benedict talks about his schedule, long toss, and fastball command. A shock to me was the comment, "We are big believers in long toss." Who knew. He also has some interesting comments about what fastball command really means.

In Part 2 Benedict talks about Jeff Locke, Aaron Thompson, and Tim Alderson. He gives a cogent explanation of why Alderson's velocity is down; I had not seen this before. It's not the strange delivery, Alderson has had that since day one. What's happened is that Alderson has lost his "L" at the plant. I come away with a lot of confidence in Benedict and NH for hiring people like him.

Take a look. What's your take?

Cornering the market on the Baseball America top prospects of 2005 is obviously the plan. Andy Marte (Braves and Indians), Lastings Milledge (Mets), Neil Walker, Jeff Clement (Mariners), and now Brandon Wood (Angels). Removing tongue from cheek, I decided to take a look at what people had to say about Brandon Wood. Over on Halos Heaven the general feeling seemed to be that the Angels had mismanaged Wood

I took a look at the 2006 BA Top 10 Prospect commentary to see what had been written there. Wood was the top prospect:

The Angels wanted an outfielder with their 23rd overall selection that year, but Chris Lubanski, Lastings Milledge, Brian Anderson and Brad Snyder all went off the board before their pick. 

Maybe they were fortunate to draft Wood.

Wood's package of power, hitting, all-around defensive skills and championship-caliber makeup prompted one high Class A California League manager to dub him the next Cal Ripken. 

At this point, the next Billy Ripken (who was well thought of at one point).

Wood was still the number one prospect in 2007:

Wood ranked among the TL leaders in several offensive categories, including finishing first in strikeouts with the highest total of his career. His uppercut swing path won't allow him to make contact often enough to contend for batting titles, and he could post modest averages his first few years in the majors. 

Too true. He was still the top prospect in 2008, although the issues were becoming clearer:

While Wood cut down on his strikeouts from once every 3.0 at-bats in 2006 to once every 3.6 at-bats last season, his greatest deficiency remains his lack of plate discipline. His pitch selection is below-average, and when he falls behind in the count, he'll punch out by chasing balls off the plate and above his hands. . . . He must shorten his swing and hone his two-strike approach in order to hit for a higher average and make more consistent contact. He also can tighten his defense at third base, where he made 16 errors in 74 Triple-A games.

On balance though he was called "One of the top power-hitting prospects in the minors." 

During 2008 Wood got 157 plate appearances in the majors, so he was no longer a prospect (independently of amassing an OPS+ of 43 in the majors). Nonetheless BA noted that 

Infielders Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood are ready for expanded roles after decimating Triple-A pitching,

Wood hit 0.296 in AAA with 31 home runs. But we're still waiting for that "expanded role." Maybe with the Pirates.

Indy up 2-0 through five, and Rudy Owens has a no-hitter thus far. The Indians chased Cueto in the fourth inning after some shoddy fielding by the Bats. One really has to pitch well for the Indians to win, as they really really don't hit very well. Well it's not so bad. They have a team batting average of 0.251. But Norfolk has  a team batting average of 0.182. As you can see, I like to be creative in my filler.