SB Nation User Blog: Roberto

Some Relief Numbers

Roberto — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 18:20:35 -0000

There's lots of interest in who will man the bullpen next year, and one of the questions I was mulling over was who looks best on paper. I also thought it would be useful to compare these gentlemen with the pitchers now on the staff. The data here report strikeouts per nine innings, bases on balls per nine innings, and Bill James's predictions for FIP in 2010. Of course FIP depends solely on home runs, strikeouts, and bases on balls. A couple of points do jump out at me, but I wonder what others see.

First, Octavio Dotel and Kevin Gregg do look like attractive candidates, but Kiko Calero looks pretty impressive. Of course he has had a series of arm miseries over the years, but he might be a good player to gamble on. Second, Jose Valverde might have a problem. While he does look like the best available player, he may be pricing himself out of the market. Third, the projected FIP for Evan Meek looks pretty good, though he does have this nasty habit of walking tons of people. Fourth, what about Chad Bradford? My understanding is that he is thinking about retirement, but if he would be willing to take a flyer, the PBC should be as well.

				K/9	BB/9	FIP
Danys Baez	32	Free Agent	Baltimore	6.04	3.60	4.70
Brian Bass	27	Non-Tendered	Baltimore	5.46	3.43	4.75
Joe Beimel	32	Free Agent	Colorado	5.29	3.71	3.98
Chad Bradford	35	Free Agent	Tampa Bay	4.95	2.48	3.62
Kiko Calero	34	Free Agent	Florida	9.42	4.22	3.47
Matt Capps	26	Signed	Washington	7.11	1.74	3.80
Clay Condrey	34	Non-Tendered	Philadelphia	4.85	2.77	4.22
Brendan Donnelly	38	Free Agent	Florida	8.25	3.25	3.60
Octavio Dotel	36	Free Agent	Chicago Sox	11.25	3.94	3.88
Kevin Gregg	31	Free Agent	Chicago Cubs	8.31	3.74	4.04
Joel Hanrahan	28	Signed	Pittsburgh	8.44	5.06	4.63
Steven Jackson	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	7.14	3.88	4.20
Chris Jakubauskas	31	Signed	Pittsburgh	6.09	2.91	4.27
Jeff Karstens	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	5.90	2.90	4.50
Kevin Hart	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	7.80	3.98	4.46
Mike MacDougal	32	Non-Tendered	Washington	7.93	5.24	3.99
Daniel McCutchen	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	6.66	2.22	4.56
Evan Meek	26	Signed	Pittsburgh	7.88	5.06	3.85
Jose Valverde	31	Free Agent	(A)Houston	10.48	3.63	3.43
Jose Veras	29	Non-Tendered	Cleveland	9.00	4.30	4.21
Jamey Wright	35	Free Agent	Kansas City	5.42	4.34	4.81

Lucky Charms versus Marshmallow Matey's

Roberto — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 16:31:28 -0000

Over on Bucco Fans Tim Wilson has an interesting analysis of cheap and not cheap relief pitchers. As it appears that the Nats are going to be all over Matt Capps, this is apt to be an important topic for the PBC. If I may summarize Tim's analysis, expensive relief pitchers are a little better than cheap ones, but neither is guaranteed. My guess would be that NH is busy trying to identify major- and minor-league arms that have some shot of success. He won't be shopping for Lucky Charms.

Less than $11 Million

Roberto — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:01:44 -0000

It seems that the outbursts by Boras and Henry have pushed the PBC to "open" their books. DK reports that the club made less than $11 million over the last two years. In a pointy-haired boss-like statement, Cooneley said, “"The Pirates utilize every dollar we receive in our effort to build a winning club." The article suggests that Boras was high by about 12% and Henry was displaying cluelessness.

Assume for the moment that this is true. It probably means that there are a lot of clubs with troublesome bottom lines, since quite a few have some silly contracts out there.

Winter Wonderland

Roberto — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 18:23:29 -0000

A number of players are putting up interesting numbers in winter ball. Bixler is hitting for average and power in the Mexican League, but striking out as much as ever. Luis Cruz is hitting for average with some power and showing good plate discipline. Neil Walker had an on-base percentage of 0.370 in Venezuela, so he's showing some ability to take a walk. Of course we all know about the AFL players.

Some people can take up to six months to heal

Roberto — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 16:27:46 -0000

Here's an interesting piece from The Hardball Times that discusses Doumit's injury and season.

Overall, however, 2009 simply stunk for Doumit. His .268 BABIP and .164 ISO were the lowest since 2006 and 2005, respectively. That low BABIP could either signal bad luck or hitting with less authority; that his 17.9 LD% was his lowest since 2006 would point towards the latter. Since it's rare for a guy's power to suddenly vaporize at his age 28, this is most likely wrist-related. To wrap up the anatomy lesson from above, some people can take up to six months to heal completely from a scaphoid fracture, and loss of hand and wrist strength (sometimes permanent) isn't unusual.

His dreadful August surely helped in the free fall, but September suggests he should be back to normal by next year (i.e., a good, injury-prone hitter). What's scary is that only Andrew McCutchen, Garret Jones, and Andy LaRoche had more total bases after the All Star Game. (Lastings Milledge was close.) Methinks the Bucs need more offense to be competitive.

Can Alvarez Stay at Third?

Roberto — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 15:26:14 -0000

The answer seems to be yes, at least for now. Your initial impression that someone that big could not manage third apparently needs to be tempered by the realization that he's got soft hands and a good arm. According to BA

. . .several managers around the high Class A Carolina League saw enough evidence to believe Alvarez could remain at third base in the short term:

Has anyone had a chance to see him play? What do the minor league fielding stats tell us?

Pirates have one of the better groups of Venezuelan talent

Roberto — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 20:33:43 -0000

So says Ben Badler over at BA. A quick look will tell you why he says that. Jorge Bishop and Exicardo Cayonez are not the only players whose numbers jump out at you. Roberto Espinoza and Oscar Verdugo appear to be dealing some filthy stuff. The team posted a 48 and 22 record, so a number of things worked. Of course the next stop is usually the GCL, so none of these players will be anywhere near PNC in the near term.

"Definitely a system that has taken a pretty big step forward"

Roberto — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:43:13 -0000

John Sicklels' s review of his pre-season top 20 Bucs prospects is up. As he, notes, the 2010 list will look very different, given the last two drafts and the mid-season trades. Just looking at the West Virginia roster, one sees Tony Sanchez, Starling Marte, Chase d'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Aaron Pribanic, and Brett Lorin who will be in the running for inclusion. The other quote that struck me from the comments was, "I hadn't realized what a thin system this was coming into the season." But I guess NH did.

Ohlendorf makes his case

Roberto — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 00:29:01 -0000

With another nifty turn today, 5 hits in 6 shutout innings pitched with no walks and 3 strikeouts, Ross Ohlendorf is further nailing down his slot in the starting rotation. It all makes you not miss Xavier Nady less. It also gives credence to the proposition that this was a baseball trade. Imagine how lovely the competition for the rotation would look had the trade not been made. No Ohlendorf, no Karstens, no D. McCutchen. But I guess we'd still have Bullington.

BA's Top Prospect List

Roberto — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 16:45:54 -0000

Baseball America has just posted its top prospect list for the PBC. None of the names are new or unexpected, but what strikes me is that there's some depth here. For example, Daniel McCutchen is listed as the #9 prospect, and BA comments that he has good control of three pitches, of which the fastball and hard curve are pretty good. He needs to improve command, but that's hardly unusual among young pitchers.

The comments about these 10 are pretty positive, and the negatives are not very damning. Even more positive, in my view, is the fact that there are some promising players who don't make the top 10.

John Perrotto also voices a thought that I've been mulling over: Neil Walker is a terrific athlete with a strong arm. He could certainly be a candidate for right field if need be.