SB Nation User Blog: RockiesMagicNumber

Official 2009-2010 Offseason Off-Topic Discussion Thread Mk. II

RockiesMagicNumber — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 07:56:28 -0000

In today's thread, we'll discuss our least favorite condiments on hamburgers, favorite ice cream flavors, whether Chipotle or Qdoba is better, and what's the worst vegetable to have with dinner.

The poll will be Qdoba vs Chipotle.

Case for Chipotle: Totally organic (etc) foods, generally cool atmosphere, student drinks.

Case for Qdoba: Queso, larger menu variety, better Green Salsa (imo), Qdoba Card.

Vote in the poll.

In other news, required viewing for this thread is as follows:

HARDBALL MADE EASY - Getting All Defensive (w/ Brad Hawpe)

Dub FX - Made

Albert Pujols - the Real Story

Akinator

The Skippy List

Enjoy, everyone. Let your offtopicitude fly like the mighty seagull.

Poll

Which burrito chain is the superior? You have to pick one.

Winter Meetings Day 4: All Quiet on the Holliday Front

RockiesMagicNumber — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:49:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

WOE IS ME I MIGHT NOT GET $140M

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Ok, that's somewhat of a misnomer. Teams have expressed interest in Matt Holliday. For the bigger market teams, he seems to be a perpetual option. The Mets are still interested, but keep balking at the price - or do they? They've been linked to one of Bay, Holliday, or Lackey, as they want to make at least that much of a splash, but I haven't heard anything hard yet.

Holliday's agent, Scott Boras, has tried to link Holliday to the happiness of Albert Pujols, insinuating that it'd make the whole "lifetime extension" concept a bit easier to sign. The major opponents hate the idea of 1/3 of the payroll tied up between 2 players, but I frankly don't see how StL can seriously be a force in the NLC without the likes of Holliday or Bay.

In other news the Rays have landed Rafael Soriano, but they are still needing to negotiate a contract. Atlanta receives reliever Jesse Chavez in exchange.

The Yankees are currently negotiating with Johnny Damon.

The Mets are going to make 2 offers before they leave today: Bengie Molina, and ???? - according to Steve Popper from Amazin' Stories.

The Red Sox are concerned that Jason Bay may not be durable enough to warrant a big contract.

Anything else exciting going on? Post it in here!

Official 2009-2010 Offseason Off-Topic Discussion Thread

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:30:49 -0000

This thread has gotten too big and too awesome. OVERFLOW HERE

Everyone who has fancy career interests, an interesting college degree, opinions on whether Indiana Jones or Han Solo was more badass, feels like the guy they got to play James Spader's character in Stargate SG-1 was a bit too much of a sissy (or maybe not sissy enough), or can list 3 reasons why NCC-1701-E was superior to NCC-1701-D, they should discuss said topics in here.

For the record, I hate myself for being able to put those numbers down from memory.

Point is, let's attempt to keep the RockPiles and feature articles on topic, and keep discussion about whatever TV shows, movies, books, generals, and other nerdly pursuits out of there and growing and blossoming in here.

via content.ytmnd.com

Winter Meetings Day 3: WAR and rumors of WAR

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:17:27 -0000

More photos » by Hector Mata - AP

Boom, Baby - the Yankees are just disgusting anymore.

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If you all missed it, yesterday's Winter Meetings thread was absolutely ridiculous.

Rumors were milled. Topics were lost. Games were played. Pandas were exploited.

And the Stove was Hot.

As Rox Girl points out in today's RockPile, there was a big 'ol trade yesterday.

The Yankees gave: P Ian Kennedy, OF Austin Jackson, P Phil Coke.

The Yankees got: CF Curtis Granderson

The Tigers gave: P Edwin Jackson, CF Curtis Granderson

The Tigers got: P Max Scherzer, P Daniel Schlereth, OF Austin Jackson, P Phil Coke

The Diamondbacks gave: P Max Scherzer, P Daniel Schlereth

The Diamondbacks got: ~~hosed~~ ~~GOOD VALUE~~ ~~COMPLETELY SCREWED~~ ~~(dammit Rox Girl give me back my keybelsrajri rahahfgghghhhhh)~~ P Edwin Jackson, P Ian Kennedy.

The Tigers are planning on making Austin Jackson their opening day CF to replace Granderson.

And there's been a bunch of news today already. Andy Pettitte is making news by signing a 1-year, $11.75M contract with the Yankees.

Speaking of the Yankees, they're still pushing for Roy Halladay, with Jesus Montero being the centerpiece of the deal. They must really be banking on Joe Mauer becoming a FA, while Toronto sees Montero as being a 1B primarily. I've heard this isn't a terrible assessment, but it means that the Yankees will have to send along Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.

Apparently the Mets are thinking that dealing 2B Luis Castillo is suddenly unlikely to be moved. They're also looking at John Lackey.

On the other side of the country, the Mariners and Felix Hernandez seem to be miles apart in contract extension. Felix wants 6 years, $100M, and the M's want 4 years, 2 options, and less than half of that figure. Future Red Sox #2 FELIX HERNANDEZ WOOOOOO!

Meanwhile, in terms of stuff relevant to us, the Rockies and Yorvit Torrealba are talking turkey on a 2 year deal. I haven't seen this finalized yet.

All your rumors can go here.

Mets hire former Arizona Manager Bob Melvin

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 17:05:19 -0000

Mets hire former Arizona Manager Bob Melvin

Looks like Melvin's found work for himself. Good for him, he got the raw end of 2009.

Winter Meetings Day 2: The Mets can't hold out much longer without signing a dumb contract

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:02:40 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

I see that contract you're toying with, Omar...come on, just add another year...you can do it...

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Good freaking freezing morning, sports fans, it's time we gather around the hot stove, and I don't just mean to talk baseball, my toes are about to fall off. Thank God for my Columbia parka.

Let's kick things off with a name to warm us up: Randy Wolf.

The biggest teams interested in him are the Brewers (who are desperate for pitching) and the Mets (who are just desperate). The Brewers' camp is making it sound as if the deal is all but done, however Mets insiders are saying he's still available and they're still pursuing him.

But interestingly enough, the Brewers and Mets are intertwined otherwise, because if the Mets land Wolf, I'm seeing stirrings of a Corey Hart for John Maine trade - although this may just be lobby gossip, similar to the Edwin Jackson to the Mets rumors from yesterday. But if the Mets DON'T land Wolf (or another pitcher), then parting with any arms, especially young ones, is somewhat foolish.

Which brings us to Kevin Millwood. 35, coming off of a hot season, career history of being terrible, average at best. Something just screams Mets there.

Joel Sherman is suggesting that the Braves are looking to trade off Rafael Soriano, who just accepted arbitration. The Yankees are interested, but probably won't send much value, as the Braves have roughly zero leverage. Quick, Frank, get Jim Hendry on the phone before it's too late!

So before we start throwing more logs onto the fire, let's revisit one trade that didn't happen yesterday (but I guess still might, you know how these things work: nobody knows). The Yankees would receive Curtis Granderson as well as 2 prospects from the Diamondbacks(because their system isn't depleted or anything), Detroit would receive Max Scherzer from Arizona, along with Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Michael Dunn from the Yankees, and Arizona would receive Edwin Jackson from Detroit and Ian Kennedy from the Bronx. Frankly, AZ is getting hosed in that regard, because I see it as them giving up FAR more than they're receiving. And seriously, Yankees, quit being the Yankees and just call up Austin Jackson and let him cut his teeth in the majors already instead of just selling all of your prospects. Oh wait, you're the Yankees.

Winter Meetings Day 1: Here we go, boys and girls

RockiesMagicNumber — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:35:26 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

I'M THEO EPSTEIN I'M SO GREAT I could be great too if I could just throw money at Julio Lugo and make him disappear.

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Alright guys, sorry this is late, but let's dump as many trade rumors as possible in here.

Brian Bruney was traded to the Nats, and that's superduper exciting, I won't lie (lying).

Brett Myers is getting interest from the Rangers and Astros and other teams, but his 2-year requests are being met with balking.

Speaking of the 'Stros, they're not going to be able to crack the pocketbook much. Be thankful, Astros fans, because you know that they'd just dump a lot of money on a one-dimensional player who really wouldn't be worth all that much.

Adrian Beltre is set to decline arbitration, so enjoy the draft picks, Mariners' fans!

Keep posting links and rumors in here.

Jason Marquis vs. Bill James vs. CHONE vs. Marcel vs. RMN

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 02:31:02 -0000

More photos » by Isaac Brekken - AP

Project This.

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Beginning of the season, Counting Rocks broke down each member of the rotation in hopes of making a prediction on the season everyone would have. While we'll cover the rest of the rotation/team later on down the line, I want to take a look at how Jason Marquis performed against the projections, as coming into the season, he was effectively the most boring starter we had, and everyone had a good idea of what we were going to get out of him. Innings eaten, unimpressive ERA, generally blah.

Boy, he sure made us look silly, didn't he? I mean, not to the extent where we're extending him, obviously, but he certainly outperformed my expectations as well as most everyone else's.

Jason Marquis

#21 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Aug 21, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-13	38	33	2	1	0	0	216.0	218	104	97	15	80	115	4.04	1.38

So now that we've seen Marquis' season, let's move past the jump and take a look at what the projections all had to say about him.

Without further ado, here are the projections of Marquis, and at the bottom, we look at his actual season:

	G	GS	W	L	IP	SO	BB	K/BB	HR/9	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	BABIP	FIP	ERA
Bill James	29	27	9	10	167	94	65	1.45	1.19	5.07	3.50	1.43	0.287	5.05	4.60
CHONE	29	29	8	10	167	92	68	1.35	1.08	4.96	3.66	1.52	0.305	5.04	5.32
Marcel			10	9	162	96	66	1.45	1.00	5.33	3.67	1.43	0.291	4.78	4.61
RMN	30	30	9	8	177	96	73	1.30	0.94	4.90	3.71	1.50	0.299	4.74	4.71
Actual	33	33	15	13	216	115	80	1.44	0.63	4.79	3.33	1.38	0.291	4.10	4.04

So who was closest? Well, I was closest to the number of starts he'd make, so hurrah for me. I was also "closest" to his FIP, although we all missed out on that in general. Bill James was closest to his actual ERA, but again, we all thought he'd be far worse than he was. Amusingly enough, he struck out AND walked fewer than anyone expected. He kicked the crap out his projected HR9, but we'll touch on that in a second. Basically, we were all somewhat close, but wrong. In the right ballpark.

So the first thing that pops out to my eyes is the fact that none of the projection systems thought he'd pitch as many innings as he did. So right off the bat, he provided more for the Rockies in terms of bullpen rest than we anticipated. He accomplished this in part by remaining healthy and not getting himself booted from the rotation, but we'll touch on that below.

The second thing that pops out is clearly the ERA/FIP. Marquis pitched like a man's man, laughed at the projections, and went ahead and showed us all what's what.

The third thing that pops out, and I'm a bit surprised at this, but his HR9 of a mere 0.63. Marquis also enjoyed a career-low 7.8 HR/FB%, very much below his career mark of 11.8%, which, as predicted, helped deflate his ERA/FIP/whatever. BUT CORZ RITE? Marquis allowed .43 HR/9 at home, .82 HR/9 on the road. Do you like apples?

Fourth, and it's not on this chart here, but his 55.6 GB% was just absurd. Absolutely ridiculous. He fully credited pitching coach Bob Apodaca in fixing his sinker, and man did he fix it, good for 3^rd highest in baseball, behind Joel Pineiro's absurd 60.5% and Derek Lowe's excellent 56.3%.

And finally, I will go ahead and toss the man a bone. He posted 15 wins while ranking 58^th/77 eligibile starters in terms of run support per 9 innings (4.42 runs per 9). While I still stand by my disdain for using Wins to grade a pitcher, knowing the entire context makes this somewhat more impressive.

So as I'm sitting here thinking "wow, I was awfully hard on Marquis this season," I figured his first half was so good, I'd wager his second half matched his projections more closely. You know, the "real" Jason Marquis showed up 2nd half, and he sucks something awful, right? Running the numbers, I came up with the following:

	G	GS	W	L	IP	SO	BB	K/BB	HR/9	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	BABIP	FIP	ERA
Bill James	29	27	9	10	167	94	65	1.45	1.19	5.07	3.50	1.43	0.287	5.05	4.60
CHONE	29	29	8	10	167	92	68	1.35	1.08	4.96	3.66	1.52	0.305	5.04	5.32
Marcel			10	9	162	96	66	1.45	1.00	5.33	3.67	1.43	0.291	4.78	4.61
RMN	30	30	9	8	177	96	73	1.30	0.94	4.90	3.71	1.50	0.299	4.74	4.71
1st Half	18	18	11	6	123.33	58	40	1.45	0.66	4.23	2.92	1.31	0.273	3.86	3.65
2nd Half	15	15	4	7	92.67	57	40	1.43	0.58	5.54	3.88	1.48	0.318	4.11	4.56

Huh. Well, color me surprised. It looks like he struck out more, walked more, but ultimately didn't have that much worse of a second half. ERA makes it look worse than it is, but you can probably chalk a lot of that up to a low 1^st half BABIP and a high 2^nd half BABIP. It appears as if the "real" Marquis showed up, unless if you consider that 4.11 FIP is lower than his career mark. The 4.56 ERA is right in line with his career line, yeah, but if you consider how he's a 4.88 ERA/FIP (yes, they're the same) 2nd half pitcher, and the fact that his OMG ITZ THE REAL MARQUIS numbers were better than all the projections for the entire season, maybe I should just admit he had a good season. Not that I'm attacking him or anything, but he did well with the opportunity given to him, however you slice it.

Now I mentioned it above, but his innings pitched total really was understated by the fact that we had 5 guys in the rotation for the majority of the season, excepting the short time that Aaron Cook had his nice little sampler plate of injuries. 216 IP is downright fantastic, ranking 15^th among the 77 eligible starters. Remember that typically your IP leader is your ace (pitchers that are ahead of Marquis in IP are: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Bronson Arroyo, James Shields, Javier Vazquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain), and the back end of the rotation is usually a revolving door, meaning that you are scrambling to find pitchers to take the spots and dealing with burned out bullpens. Had our rotation not performed so swimmingly overall this season, Marquis' 216IP would have really been more appreciated.

To summarize all the blathering I've done about Marquis in this article, it kind of comes down to this: Marquis exceeded our expectations of him by a long shot, and his accomplishments in being pretty decent (if not completely boring) were completely overshadowed by the best rotation in Colorado Rockies history.

So kudos to you, Jason Marquis, for blowing by projections, for helping us get rid of Luis Vizcaino, for fixing your sinker, for helping Colorado to their 3^rd postseason, for pitching that scoreless inning against Philadelphia, and for earning yourself probably another 3-year deal. Thanks for the memories, and hopefully the sandwich pick.

Breaking down my NL MVP ballot | Extra Baggs

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:24:19 -0000

Breaking down my NL MVP ballot | Extra Baggs

A really interesting breakdown of Andrew Baggerly's MVP ballot. Some Rockies love, and some interesting rationale. Check out #10.

Jason Grilli signs with a new team

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:53:49 -0000

Jason Grilli signs with a new team

Jason Grilli has signed with a mystery team, via his own twitter. How exciting!