SBNation.com User Blog: Rodney Adams

A Cage Match and a Mock Draft 1.0; Impact Trumps Value

Rodney Adams — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 19:09:47 -0000

In the world of football, "value" is about as real as pixie dust. And it's about as important as the state of Kim Kardashian's relationship with Kanye.

Value is a paper term, and it flies out the window once helmets start to collide under the bright lights of September. When check-marks start landing in the wins and losses column, ‘value‘ becomes a forgotten step child, whereas ‘impact‘ has then become the favorite son. Nobody cares if Team X got a good price for Dude1 over Dude2, not if Dude1 is sitting on the bench while Dude2 could have been making impact at their weakest position.

Value, my friends, is just the relative and perceived bargain - the price you pay to attain Johnny Football; impact is what he does for your team once you've already bought him.

Johnny Football will not positively impact your team if he's playing a position where you have a Pro Bowl starter. That's just the facts, Jack.

The only thing that really matters in the early rounds is how much impact you gain by upgrading Veteran X with newly drafted Rookie A. If the two players are roughly even in talent - whether good or bad - then the impact is extremely limited. But when a premium talent is drafted to take over for a mediocre role player, then the impact is extreme and it has ripple effects throughout that entire unit.

The nuts of the issue is that there can be no impact where there is no need. Add a first-round QB or guard to your fake team, and I'll add a running back or a defensive end to my fake team: My guy will be making impact while your guy is riding pine. I'll be kicking your ass in front of your friends and even your own mother will be laughing at you, while you're pointing to the bench talking about how great dude is going to be someday when someone else gets hurt.

In my first official mock draft of the season, I'll be looking for impact... not value. No matter how talented the prospect, I'll be largely ignoring positions such as QB, WLB, OT, OG, etc.. Because they will not impact my team. I'll be drafting players who can carve out playing time at positions of weakness. My overall vision for this draft is to build in a way that allows us to protect leads and close out games.

1. Eddie Lacy, RB - Alabama
5'11, 230 pounds

I'm giving Eddie Lacy the edge here over Alex Okafor (DE) and Damontre Moore (DE), mostly due to Eddie's general awesomeness in big games. And also due to the depth of this draft; It's thin for big backs and thick for defensive ends, so I feel like I can wait for an end but not for a back.

The other big backs in this draft, such as Bell and Taylor for example, have a chance to be good, but they also have a chance to be Lance Ball 2.0 - adequate at everything but not good at anything. And outside of them, there isn't really much to look at.

Eddie Lacy has been durable and productive throughout his career (current hamstring injury not withstanding), but also doesn't have a ton of wear on those wheels - after having been the primary backup behind Trent Richardson up until last season. As with most backs coming out of college, he'll need some time to develop in pass protection, but that'll just give us a chance to use Ronnie Hillman as the change-of-pace-back that he was drafted to be.

Lacy does everything else very very well. He can push piles in short yardage situations, keeps his legs churning through contact and also breaks a lot of tackles. He's terrific in the red zone and near the goal line, and he's the only back in this draft that can both push piles and also force a defense to account for him even when Peyton is his quarterback. Chew on that for a second, because it rings pretty true. This is an entirely new dimension that we add to our offense, and it's the kind of impact that we can't expect to attain later in the draft.

What I like best of all, is that Lacy is a guy who gets better as the game goes on, and he gets better as the season goes on. His best games were under the brightest lights.

Too bad we didn't have him on our roster last January, eh?

Eddie Lacy will be the starter from day-one. Hillman will be the change-of-pace back. Moreno is the backup, and McGahee can stay on to earn his ring so long as he takes a hefty pay cut. The only RB this move truly has to affect is Lance Ball... And so somewhere in the world McGeorge is shedding a tear.

2. Darius Slay, Mississippi State
6'0, 192 pounds. 32 ¼" arm length. 4.36 40-yard dash

The immediate plan for Darius Slay would be for us to get him playing time by using more corners and less safeties while in packages that require 6 and 7 defensive backs. The long-term plan is to further prepare for Champ's eventual regression and retirement.

Slay is good in both man and zone coverage and was tested quite a lot, considering he played opposite Jonathon Banks at Mississippi State. But he's also relatively inexperienced overall and still has a lot of upside. He's not very physical, and it will benefit him to spend a year on an NFL squad where he's forced to scrape and claw for playing time. When a guy gets hungry and humble enough, he'll start to do whatever it takes to stand out, much like Ed McCaffery and Rod Smith used to do with their physical blocking when they were once buried on the depth chart as well.

Slay has all the big things that you can't teach, including ball skills, elite speed, fluid hips and terrific overall length - and we have the time to coach him up in the areas where he is raw. This guy should make some impact in his first-year, but the choice here is just as much about setting up for the future. Slay has the ability to be a true cover corner in this league and to eventually be our #1. He is to Champ Bailey what Brock Osweiler was to Peyton Manning in last year's draft. Just like the Os pick, not everyone is going to light up with joy when we draft Champ's replacement, but there are no rules when you're putting a plan in place to replace a Hall of Famer. Even if this move is seen as drafting for depth, it does not matter. The only wrong move here would be to do nothing at all.

3. Bacarri Rambo, SS - Georgia
6'1", 211 pounds

We're building this defense to defend against the pass and to protect leads, and these days, that requires more than two quality safeties. This draft pick is to compete with Quinton Carter for the starting role at strong safety - the loser of which will still be able to carve out a ton of playing time. When you consider the surprising number of four-safety looks we had out there last year, it's easy to see that there's plenty of impact to be had by adding a safety here.

Rambo is a true-blue ball hawk who excels equally in zone coverage as well as man coverage, and he's also good against the tight ends. Could even be the fabled Tight End Killer we've been combing the earth for. Not sure, but I know he's twice as good at it as Mike Adams was last year. And his name is Rambo.

This is a deep class of safeties and a deep class of big hitters, so while he's not quite the intimidator that Matt Elam is, he's still very physical and can lay the wood. He's a physical run-defender and is also reliable as the last line of defense.

Not really as big of a difference in today's NFL as it used to be, but I project him best at strong safety even though he played more at free safety in college.

Speaking of college, Rambo tested positive for pot twice while he was there, and was suspended both times. He basically said it was a contact high, meaning he wasn't smoking weed but that his friends were. This isn't a good look and it needs to be weighed, but bare in mind, he's a kid with first-round talent that wouldn't be available in the third round if it wasn't for those two mistakes. There are no other known on- or off-field issues with him.

With 16 career interceptions, Rambo is a durable, versatile ball-hawk who excels in coverage and is a force to be reckoned with in the run-game. Whether it's as our 2nd or 3rd safety, Rambo will be making impact right out of the gate both by thumping running backs as well as taking picks to the house. He has the ability to change games.

4. Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB - Florida State
6'3, 251 pounds

As a sophomore, Brandon Jenkins notched 21.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. As a sophomore. Offenses were focusing on him just as much as they were focusing on Bjoern Werner (likely top-15 pick in April‘s draft) that year, and he actually outpaced Bjooern in the stats department. In his Junior year, the focus shifted even moreso to Jenkins instead of Werner. Jenkins saw his production dip that year to 12 tackles for loss and "only" 8 sacks. The NFL Draft advisory committee told him he'd be no latter than a second-round pick, but he chose instead to return to school. Notched a sack in that first game before he went down for the season.

Brandon Jenkins has elite burst. He has an explosive first step. He has the things you can't teach that most of the other pass rushers in this class only wish they had. He has the bendability to get around the edge, and he's got good length. He's still a bit raw, but he is a force to be reckoned with. He wasn't able to work out for teams before the draft and so this is where we make our stand. This is where we land the steal of the draft.

The plan for Jenkins in year-one would be for him and Von Miller to go into camp and battle it out to see which of them plays where - DE or SAM. With Dwight Freeney also in the picture as a situational rusher, this is a comforting scenario.

...

The backup plan here in the fourth-round is Lavar Edwards: The LSU defensive end that was stuck behind Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery (two first-round talents in April's draft). Mingo and Montgomery are terrific pass rushers but couldn't hold off Edwards indefinitely, as Lavar eventually earned 6 starts in his Sr season, notching 4.5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss and one interception he returned for a touchdown. It was a three-headed monster, with Edwards less than three sacks off the lead.

Even as merely a backup, Edwards was actually the leader of that LSU defense for the last two or three years - and that really speaks volumes when a role player, as a sophomore and junior, can really be a leader of a unit. Edwards has elite length and looks the part. Strong as an ox already, this guy actually played a lot of nose tackle in sub-packages. Guy has some real upside and he's a coach's dream. Great motor, great work ethic but still pretty raw. One of these two DEs should be ours.

5. Brennan Williams, OT - North Carolina
6'6", 318 pounds. 34" arm length.

According to nfl.com, Williams was considered a second-round prospect coming into this season. He was injured and missed a bunch of time this last year, although he still earned all-acc conference honors from coaches. He played RT throughout his career and projects best as a mauler on that same side once he's drafted. In the fifth round, you're not going to get everything you want, and so while I was really looking for a more versatile swing tackle, this guy is too good to pass up. And Ryan Clady is pretty much the energizer bunny, so he doesn't really need a backup anyway.

In all seriousness, though, Brennan Williams has a ton of upside and shouldn't be pigeon holed strictly as a RT already. He's a backup for us, not a starter. We don't need him to be an All Pro LT right out of the gate; we just need him to stop the bleeding if Clady or Franklin ever miss some time.

7. Chad Bumphis, WR - Mississippi State
5'10", 202 pounds. 4.46 40-yard dash (no combine invite)

Chad Bumphis is a poor man's Ryan Swope... which isn't a bad thing, seeing as how Ryan Swope is still probably my favorite player in this draft. Bumphis is made of the same mold: tough, quick, fast, fearless over the middle, dependable, sure-handed and underrated. And he runs great routes. Bumphis led Mississippi State in receiving yards for 3 of the 4 years he was there. He was money when called upon, and even though they didn't generally pass an awful lot, his numbers were very respectable, even if not earth shattering.

Bumphis can be looked at as the heir apparent to Wes Welker in the slot, but you won't hear me say that because I never want to see Rudy leave. N. E. Ever. I would say instead that our depth at wide receiver is comparable to the wealth in the middle east... epically rich at the top and epically poor at the bottom. Chad Bumphis isn't all that raw and he should contribute in a small role immediately. We need new blood on the back end of our depth chart, and not just in the slot receiver mold.

In the world of football, "value" is about as real as pixie dust. And it's about as important as the state of Kim Kardashian's relationship with Kanye.

Value, my friends, is just the relative and perceived bargain - the price you pay to attain Johnny Football; impact is what he does for your team once you've already bought him.

Johnny Football will not positively impact your team if he's playing a position where you have a Pro Bowl starter. That's just the facts, Jack.

1. Eddie Lacy, RB - Alabama
5'11, 230 pounds

What I like best of all, is that Lacy is a guy who gets better as the game goes on, and he gets better as the season goes on. His best games were under the brightest lights.

Too bad we didn't have him on our roster last January, eh?

2. Darius Slay, Mississippi State
6'0, 192 pounds. 32 ¼" arm length. 4.36 40-yard dash

3. Bacarri Rambo, SS - Georgia
6'1", 211 pounds

Not really as big of a difference in today's NFL as it used to be, but I project him best at strong safety even though he played more at free safety in college.

4. Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB - Florida State
6'3, 251 pounds

...

5. Brennan Williams, OT - North Carolina
6'6", 318 pounds. 34" arm length.

7. Chad Bumphis, WR - Mississippi State
5'10", 202 pounds. 4.46 40-yard dash (no combine invite)

Poll

First Round Choice....

Alex Okafor/Damontre Moore

19 votes

Matt Elam/Jonathon Cyprien

7 votes

Eddie Lacy

35 votes

None of the above. Value over impact.

24 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Weighing The Options; The Quit Crying Addition.

Rodney Adams — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 02:08:37 -0000

Elvis has left the building. Gosh all mighty, I can't believe I just wrote that line! But not because I'm sad, mostly because it's too easy and cheesy.

I'm disappointed by the loss of Elvis Dumervil, but I ain't gonna sit here and cry about it.

And I don't fault John Elway for asking Doom to reduce his contract - the gamble that started this whole mess. The reason I don't fault him is because it worked, and because Mr. Elway won that bet. Dumervil agreed to a greatly reduced contract that saved the team a ton of money. And he even signed the contract. Sure it came in seven minutes too late, but Elway's initial plan was a win. I can't blame him for the fax fowl up.

And I don't really blame Dumervil all that much either. Guess I've just never been the type to hold a grudge or spend a lot of time bad mouthing an ex. Well, I should note that Jay Cutler doesn't really count in that little analogy. I still hate his whinny little face with a passion. And I'll still sit and talk shit about him all day and until the cows come home.

Anyway, Elvis Dumervil was a great Bronco in a lot of ways, a great member of the community, a good leader and a terrific pass rusher. I wish him well on every day except for those days that he plays against us.

And with that, the best way to get over an ex is to get underneath somebody new. Or behind them, in this case.

And now that you've gotten that filthy analogy out of your head, it's really just time to find a new player or two that we can all get behind. Somebody to support in the now and someone to hope for in the future. I'm told there's more than one way to skin a cat and so here are a few ideas to kick things off...

Defining Freeney.

With Dwight Freeney or another situational stop-gap now poised to join the team, it probably starts for us by defining his likely role... which is for him to play as a rush-end on the money downs. And then maybe more?

Most folks take the stance that Freeney's days as a full-time end are over. They'll point out his relatively old age, his poor recent stats and the fact that he's been on a pretty strict snap count for the last two years or more. But there is another side to this argument, and although this side hasn't been barked as loudly thus far, that doesn't mean it doesn't have some bite.

Some would have you believe that Freeney's poor 2012 production was due to him suddenly being forced into a 3-4 defense that didn't fit his skill set, that he was miscast. They would then say that his 2011 production was generally down due to playing on a horrible team that couldn't even force other terrible teams to pass very often.

After explaining why Dwight Freeney's recent down-turn in production shouldn't be viewed in such a dark light, this relative minority would also argue that Dwight Freeney will have an easier go of it on the base downs here in Denver - considering that the other three starters on our line weigh a combined 965 pounds... before lunch. These brave men might even argue that although Freeney isn't good against the run... neither was Dumervil. They'd reason that Freeney's deficiencies could be masked by an otherwise great DL and a great Defensive Coordinator, just like Dumervil's deficiencies were masked last year. After all, this Elvis guy pretty much never left the field, and yet we still ranked within my favorite category in pretty much all aspects of the defense: Elite.

So the question is, did Dumervil turn a corner? Or were his deficiencies simply masked by scheme, coach and surrounding talent, such as Von Miller? If they indeed were simply masked, then couldn't Freeney's same deficiencies be masked in the same way by the same men?

Careful with that one now, I almost convinced myself. Still might be a poisoned apple, though, so don't underestimate the sneakiness.

Moving in a slightly different direction, some will say that it's not as much about Freeney or Abraham's run-defense as much as it's about their age. They old. They're beat up and brittle. The toll of the game has taken its toll on their bodies and on their stamina. Some people just can't be effective in their role as a pass rusher if they're kept on the field too much.

Now that last line, that's just truism 101 - although that doesn't necessarily mean it's the case with Dwight. Whichever way you're leaning, though, we need a plan in the short term and we need a plan in the long term. So, hopefully we're at least asking the right questions and moving in the right direction. But are we?

False. Do not listen to the box. The box is trying to trick you. The box is not your friend.

So, here's a crazy thought: What about moving Von Miller over to RDE on a permanent basis?

The case could be made that Von Miller's not a rookie anymore. Well, and it wouldn't even take a good lawyer to win that argument, but you get the point. Von Miller has already adapted to this level of competition. The game has probably 'slowed down' for him. He's adjusted to the speed of the NFL. He can take on more, and he can learn something entirely new.

Von Miller is pretty good against the run and he sets the edge pretty well, also. He's tall enough and has the frame to add a little weight, and he certainly has the speed to beat left tackles off the edge. He's got extensive experience playing as a defensive end already, even if it's been mainly been on passing downs.

Opponents of this idea would primarily preach the "don't fix it if it ain't broken" mantra. Von Miller is the best linebacker in the NFL, and so it's probably not a good idea to start trying to tinker with the design of a Ferrari. They would say that he's a little light and that being good against the run as a linebacker isn't the same as being good against the run when you're up on the line going against the big boys full time.

There's some merit to both sides of the conversation, but I think it's a conversation worth having. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, tinkering with what you do well in order to fix something that's unrelated might not be a very wise idea. But then again, this is Von Miller we're talking about. Line him up at safety and he'll find a way to get it done.

And I truly believe that.

Here's another nutty idea: Why not just switch up to a full-on 3-4 defense? You've got Big Vick, Pot Roast and the Wolfe, all of which would make for a terrific starting line in a 3-4 defense. You've also got your rush-linebacker already locked up in Von Miller. The other linebackers could be a bit of a problem. Or not. But I'll tell you what: This idea isn't as crazy as it sounds. The most important pieces are already in place.

Closing Time.

Conventional wisdom, my friends. It's the enemy here. The US army would still fight with bow & arrows if nobody ever thought outside the box. We'd live in straw huts without electricity, using sticks and stones to start fires.

My ideas are still evolving, but I'm done crying over Dumervil. It's time to figure out this mess that we're left with. And I'm just not sure it's a situation where a conventional solution is the best approach.

Oddball thinking sometimes works. The following excerpts were written in a post titled The Von Miller Mold, more than a full month before the 2011 draft. Mind you, this was at a time when Miller was still seen strictly as a 3-4 rush-linebacker, and he wasn't really yet in consideration as a top-5 pick - certainly not for us.

"We only have one proven pass rusher and need at least one more. We only have one sure fire starter at linebacker and need at least one more. Von Miller could fill both of those roles with a single draft pick. Miller could start at linebacker then move to Ayers' DE position on passing downs - moving Ayers inside for those downs. Obviously not all passes are "obvious", though, so Miller would still drop in coverage sometimes and would eventually excel in that aspect, too. We would also need a coverage linebacker to fill in for Miller when he moves to DE on passing downs..."

"But make no mistake, drafting Miller isn't the easy choice. It means we'd have to mold him and build around him. And Dareus is still the logical choice. Nonetheless, I've now moved on to Von Miller from Marcell Dareus - representing my first change at the top pick and the first time I've advocated any ypick at #2 other than Marcell."

There isn't a single 4-3 team in the league that uses their best pass rusher like we use Von Miller. So I'd say it was pretty unconventional thought at the time, and it ended up being right.

Maybe today's solution really is as simple as putting Robert Ayers in for the base downs and Freeney in for the money downs. Or maybe not.

I'm just not sure exactly what I believe yet. Seems like only yesterday that Elvis had me at hello.

And now he's dead to me. Next...

Elvis has left the building. Gosh all mighty, I can't believe I just wrote that line! But not because I'm sad, mostly because it's too easy and cheesy.

I'm disappointed by the loss of Elvis Dumervil, but I ain't gonna sit here and cry about it.

And with that, the best way to get over an ex is to get underneath somebody new. Or behind them, in this case.

Defining Freeney.

Careful with that one now, I almost convinced myself. Still might be a poisoned apple, though, so don't underestimate the sneakiness.

False. Do not listen to the box. The box is trying to trick you. The box is not your friend.

So, here's a crazy thought: What about moving Von Miller over to RDE on a permanent basis?

And I truly believe that.

Closing Time.

"We only have one proven pass rusher and need at least one more. We only have one sure fire starter at linebacker and need at least one more. Von Miller could fill both of those roles with a single draft pick. Miller could start at linebacker then move to Ayers' DE position on passing downs - moving Ayers inside for those downs. Obviously not all passes are "obvious", though, so Miller would still drop in coverage sometimes and would eventually excel in that aspect, too. We would also need a coverage linebacker to fill in for Miller when he moves to DE on passing downs..."

"But make no mistake, drafting Miller isn't the easy choice. It means we'd have to mold him and build around him. And Dareus is still the logical choice. Nonetheless, I've now moved on to Von Miller from Marcell Dareus - representing my first change at the top pick and the first time I've advocated any ypick at #2 other than Marcell."

There isn't a single 4-3 team in the league that uses their best pass rusher like we use Von Miller. So I'd say it was pretty unconventional thought at the time, and it ended up being right.

Maybe today's solution really is as simple as putting Robert Ayers in for the base downs and Freeney in for the money downs. Or maybe not.

I'm just not sure exactly what I believe yet. Seems like only yesterday that Elvis had me at hello.

And now he's dead to me. Next...

Poll

Choose the red pill or the blue pill. Or the reder pill or the bluer pill. Oh, and I like Joseph Randall as our primary target at running back. Just throwing that out there to keep you on your toes.

Freeney/Abraham on the money downs, Ayers on the base downs

49 votes

Leave Freeney in for most of the downs; Elvis did it.

16 votes

Plug in the new rookie we draft for the base downs, and then use the veteran free agent on the money downs

31 votes

Plug Von Miller in there on the base downs and then move him and Freeney anywhere you want on the money downs

10 votes

Other. And I'll explain, or else...

10 votes

116 votes | Poll has closed

Bronco Down

Rodney Adams — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 00:39:33 -0000

It was pretty recent that I said in a comment that I've never been wrong here at MHR when loudly considering an idea stupid or a non-option. I'm not exactly shy in giving those opinions, and I probably plant those overgrown seeds about a dozen times each offseason (for the last three years or more) - generally relating to the shinny new flavor of the week in free agency, but sometimes including our own guys as well. There's never a shortage of rumors on major moves, and until now I've never really been on the wrong side of one of them.

I was wrong about Elvis Dumervil. His value wasn't what I thought it was. I said he would never get cut and considered it a preposterous idea. He got cut. I thought he had trade value. He didn't. I didn't foresee such massive tectonic shifts in the market coming. I could have. I was pretty loud in thinking Elvis Dumervil is worth the $10M per year he was getting paid, and maybe I was wrong there, too.

My friends, I no longer have a dog in that fight. I'm no longer clinging to a faulty idea or trying to preserve credibility on the issue. Up, down and sideways: I was wrong. I don't like it, but I'm over it.

I'm hoping some others are over it by now, too. Whether you nailed it, or whether you're living in Wrongsville like me: It's just no longer important. It's time to put the pitch forks down peeps. Time to stop pointing the finger. Elvis Dumervil remains on the open market. We have a man down, but not out. We have a Bronco down.

We have a hole that needs to be filled, and that void could still very well be filled by the man we all used to adore. He might still wear your colors again. So is it more important to be right, to guess right? Or is it more important to stand for the man that's never previously done you wrong?

Stop talking shit about Elvis. Now I'm not saying that because I'm still trying to defend a previous position... like I said, I was wrong and now that day is dead. Stop talking shit about Elvis just because he deserves better than that.

My friends, this isn't a Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall type of situation. Elvis Dumervil is not, nor has he ever been, a cancer to this team. He and/or his agent botched a deal. Maybe he comes back, maybe he doesn't. But he deserves more loyalty than we're giving him. He deserves the benefit of the doubt because he has no history of being a douche.

Dumervil's small-time agent apparently isn't Ari Gold; He's not the best in the business. And so maybe his public relations strategy was awful. He shouldn't have made a big deal about fielding calls from other teams, saying his phone was "blowing up". He also shouldn't have said 'some things just aren't meant to be' shortly after D Day. But we're reading way too much into that stuff. Some people are just bad at their jobs. Some people are stupid. That's life. He probably thought he was helping Doom's value by underlining how many teams were interested. He probably even thought it would take focus away from his incompetence in executing the previous offer.

The agent screwed up, and Elvis Dumervil's skillset apparently doesn't translate to public relations very well either. He was naive and likely should have picked a better guy to represent him. And he should have flown to Denver. But so what? His jersey isn't hanging in your closet due to his public charisma, book smarts and common sense.

I work in construction management, and not all of that is office work. I spend a lot of time with boots on the ground, and I came up in the industry not through a resume but through promotions. I went to the school of hard knocks, spending years in the mud and the blood and the beer. I've met and known and become friends with some pretty colorful characters in that time. And it taught my the age old cliche of not judging a book by its cover. My best friend in life once spelled the word 'nice' out loud while excited: "Nice!", he shouted with a somewhat sarcastic fist-bump, "Nice! N.I.S.".

Ya, we laughed.

As you can see, Johnny don't spell real good. But you know what? He can fix pretty much any mechanical object that's broken whether he's seen it before or not. He never complains. He doesn't need a lot of back-pats or kudos. He's not a shinny-new-problem person. And he's fiercely loyal, both at work and in life - literally bleeding for me, and with me, at least a handful of times. I'm not going to ask him to do a book report, but I know who to call when I have a crew on downtime and the other mechanics either don't know what to do or aren't doing it fast enough. And I know who's going to stand tall and go elbows to elbows with me when things go South.

Don't blame Elvis Dumervil for picking a stupid agent. He kills quarterbacks, not press conferences and negotiations. His skill-set doesn't translate into the area of public relations, which means we're hearing all of the bad and none of the good. But so what? He's been a loyal and productive Bronco, and he still might be wearing your colors in the future. Ease up a bit. He's earned it.

Ya, we laughed.

Poll

A Mile High Salute to Elvis Dumervil whether he comes back or not?

Yes.

159 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

Offseason Strategy: Offense

Rodney Adams — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 05:36:00 -0000

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Two blowhards walk into a bar. They start chatting it up about Darelle Revis...

I know, I know. You've heard it before, but man! It just cracks me up every time. Fine, we'll move on...

With free agency on the horizon, it's time to get filthy, dirty and nasty. So lace up your boots and strap on your helmets, gentlemen, for tonight we pen our battle plan. You know, because it's just not as much fun predicting the past.

This is a position-by-position offseason strategy for the Denver Broncos, and it will cover free agency as well as the draft. My guys don't have to be your guys for us to all get along; just focus on the 'what' instead of the 'who' and the rest will take you home.

Offensive Line.

The 2012 Broncos sustained multiple injuries along a starting offensive line that ranked 5th overall and 1st in pass blocking (rankings courtesy of ProFootballFocus). Important to note is that the unit managed this upper-echelon ranking while giving backup Center, Dan Koppen, 12 starts in place of the injured J.D. Walton, and backup Guard, Manny Ramirez, 11 starts in place of injured Pro Bowler Chris Kuper.

With starting tailback Willis McGahee already out with an injury of his own, the problem at offensive line, and specifically with the run-game, was further compounded in that sickening playoff loss against Baltimore, when backup RB Knowshon Moreno was abruptly stricken from the game with yet another injury as well. With so many components to their running game either out of action or severely hobbled, this left Denver working to close out the game with a 185-pound rookie tailback trying to pound the rock up the gut, even when the defense pretty well knew it was coming. And right between both a backup center and a dinged up guard to boot. Needless to say, the results were not pretty.

For this positional group, as the top brass of the Denver Broncos peer over the wall to sneak a peak at what their offseason could look like, they would be wise to remember one rule above all others: Don't throw a grenade when a BB Gun might be all you need.

Coaches, players and fans alike still feel the sting of that heartbreaking loss in front of a home crowd, and they certainly remember the team's inability to pound the rock when it mattered most.

And for what it's worth, "they" lied to you again. Time doesn't heal all wounds. Only winning does.

The Broncos will learn from this loss what they can, but what they can't do is to just start throwing money and draft picks at things that made them mad. And sad. So, chin up boys. Patience. Deep thoughts.

Not dissimilar to most teams in this league, the Broncos have more problems than nukes. Or grenades, whatever term we're going with in this paragraph... you get the idea. The trick is to use them wisely (I know, duh right?). In this particular case, having healthy running backs and a healthy offensive line will go an incredibly long way towards fixing what was broken.

Let's underline that. The running game was broken by what can only be described as an unfair share of injuries, and at the worst possible time. Lady luck was mean to the boys in blue. She's a cruel, heartless savage bitch. But whatever, right? She's no longer such a big part of their lives anymore. What was broken isn't necessarily still broken. In fact, it's not even likely. If you throw the nuclear option at a potential problem, you're not going to have enough nukes left to shoot at the more realerest problems. Ya, it's a word. Look it up.

Sure, the Broncos could use an early draft pick on a RT like D.J. Fluker or add a free agent such as Eric Winston, either of which would slide Orlando Franklin over to guard and thus act as a multipurpose upgrade. The problem is that those are grenades, fellow fans, and not the kind you hear about on MTV's Jersey Shore. They're grenades in the sense that it's a huge resource to spend on a problem that might not exist. And with a very limited number of high-resource options to use this offseason, it might be more wise to conserve where possible - you know, instead of just lobbing shit up in the hopes that something sticks somewhere.

It was injuries that were the problem last season, not the players themselves. And so the name of this game is instead to hedge bets by adding quality depth to further insure against prolonged injures. Look for the Broncos to add someone like Donald Thomas in free agency - a "fringe starter" and a versatile interior lineman that can be trusted to hold his own if one of the interior guys can't come fully back from injury. The Broncos would also be wise to look at drafting an offensive lineman sometime after the third round. Again, this isn't an immediate starter the Broncos need here. What they need is insurance. Write me down for Brennan Williams (OT, North Carolina) in the 5th round.

This is the NFL, boys and girls... there are no certainties. I can't promise you that Chris Kuper is going to come back full bore, but what I can promise you is that you'll hate yourself in the morning if he is healthy, meaning the second-round draft pick you just spent on an OT isn't doing much to upgrade an already fantastic offensive line - all while your defense is getting pounded away with the deep ball again. There are real problems, and there are potential problems. Use the nukes wisely.

Running Back.

Starting tailback Willis McGahee is still coming off an injury that forced him to miss the final seven games of the 2012 season, including the playoff loss against Baltimore. McGahee will be 32 years old before the second-half of the upcoming football year gets under way, and just in case you weren't aware: That's really old for a running back. Like, really old.

The Broncos have a little bit of room to make some wise purchases in free agency, and this could be one of just three positional groups (along with DT and a bit of spending at CB) where they really look to make a mark. Cutting Willis would save the Broncos two-million in cap space, which means they could probably land top FA RB Steven Jackson by going into their pockets for a rather reasonable two- or three-million more. Jackson is no spring chicken himself and has a lot of wear on those wheels, but he's still proven to be productive, dependable and durable - even recently. I wouldn't put Jackson in the "must have" column, as the team could chose a less expensive option or even go with McGahee to start the season. Still, if Jackson is agreeable to one-year offers in the four- or five-million-dollar range, then expect the Broncos to be a suitor.

Whether Willis stays or goes, and whether it's Steven Jackson or somebody else, whatever's done with McGahee, it's likely to be through free agency. It's a stop-gap solution, one in which you want to keep a veteran presence as the starter until you can effectively trust the youngsters in a variety of down-and-distance situations. Having drafted speedster RB Ronnie Hillman in the third-round of the previous draft, the Broncos will now add a power component to the roster - the thunder to Hillman's lighting. The usual suspects of Montee Ball, Stephan Taylor, Le'Veon Bell and Marcus Lattimore are all options here, any of which would replace Lance Ball in the lineup. Put me down for Stepfan Taylor in the fourth-round.

In all reality, I'd have better luck throwing darts blindly at a wall while hoping to hit the bullseye than I would at getting just two picks right this early in the offseason. The doors of free agency are just around the corner, but until they open, not even Nostradamus is going to get a whole lot of this mambo jambo exactly right. Well, and I guess it doesn't help that he's been dead for a minute.

Anyway, I'm hoping we don't focus so much on the 'who', and instead on the 'what'. By the end of the offseason, expect the Broncos to have added a power back through the draft as well as a RB through Free Agency - one that's more durable than McGahee at this point in his career. After all, it doesn't matter what a running back is actually capable of doing... only that you trust him to still be doing it when February rolls around.

Wide Receiver.

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker - or Black & Decker as they like to be called - each turned a heckuva corner under Peyton Manning last season. Drafted in the first- and third-rounds in 2010, respectively, these youngsters have a firm grip on their starting outside roles. The rest of the depth chart here is truly up for grabs, however. There's really nobody on the roster outside of these two that should feel secure in their seats.

Look for the Broncos to double-dip again here, adding free agent(s) as well as draftee(s).

With the true starting positions covered, Brandon Stokely is likely to be brought back to man the slot position at a minimum salary. Austin Collie is another option there. It's almost too easy to connect those dots, but it's not out of laziness or "group think". The fact is, Peyton Manning trusts these guys, and that alone gets them on the field and producing immediately. And you could probably ask ex-Broncos receiver Matt Willis how it goes on the flip side of that coin.

In addition to a slot receiver, look for the Broncos to add another veteran body on the outside as well. WR Andre Caldwell could be a target for replacement, as he's neither a special teams contributor nor did he see much action on offense after being signed by the Broncos last year.

After shaking the tree of free agency, the Broncos will also hit up the draft for a new slot receiver to groom behind Stokely/Collie/Yo Mamma. This is a guy that doesn't need to start right out of the gate, but he'll still have plenty of room to carve out some playing time as the #4 WR. This means the Broncos are likely to use a high-powered rifle to fill the need - you know, bigger than a hand gun but smaller than a bazooka. And if you're getting tired of that stupid analogy already, then just expect to see a WR drafted sometime between rounds 3-5.

Bronco fans near and far have quickly fallen in love with The Great White Swope (Ryan Swope - WR, Texas A&M), and it's easy to see why. He's the prototypical slot receiver who's tough as nails, fearless over the middle and brilliant in his understand of the game. With his draft stock still climbing, however, chances are getting less and less likely of the Broncos landing him. Whoever they choose, though, this is the mold. Listen to me when I talk to you, would ya? It's not about the 'who', it's about the 'what'. Swope has had a meeting with the Broncos, as has similarly skilled inside wide receiver Chad Bumphis (WR, Mississippi State). These are the types of guys the Broncos are looking to bring in.

The Broncos are rock solid on top, yet paper thin in the depth department. More than one body will be brought in, but don't expect that to mean they'll spend anything more than a 7th round draft pick on a prototypical outside receiver (taller, and faster than he is quick).

Oh, and patent pending on "The Great White Swope"(TM).

Tight End.

Last year's free agent acquisitions Jacob Tamme and Joel Dressen each had a terrific season under Peyton Manning, and with youngsters Virgil Green and Julius Thomas still clinging to their roster spots, it's unlikely the Broncos will use any considerable resources on this positional group. The question here becomes whether or not all four of them will remain Broncos. "They" say there's an outside chance that Jacob Tamme will be moved to clear a roster spot, and more importantly, to get the younger guys some playing time. And if you're wondering who "they" are, it's me.

It's time for Virgil and Julius to sink or swim and that's never going to happen if there's no room in the pool. It's probably not very likely that I'm right on this, but it's probably more likely than you think. Get it? Got it? Good.

Summary.

I got wrapped up earlier and since this is getting pretty long-winded already (I just never know when to shut up), I'll just skip the defense. At least for now. I pretty much covered it in my last three posts anyway.

So that's about $5M I've spent in free agency, while also using draft picks in the third-, fourth- and fifth rounds. It's given us a very strong backup/fringe starter at the guard positions, and then we added competition for the primary backup tackle position through the draft. I added Steven Jackson to be a more dependable work horse deep in the season, while adding Stepfan Taylor to groom as his successor. I added The Great White Swope as our slot receiver of the future, and he'll get plenty of playing time in his first year as well.

I admit that it's possible we may have to trade up in the third-round to get him, but whatever. Whatevs, yo! It's not just because I think he's got cool hair, but rather because I think he's the type of guy the Johns will fall in love with. I'm going out of my way to pick him, not just because I'm clinging to my own man-crush, but because I think the Johns will cling to theirs. And again, nobody really cares about my half-mock-draft or who I pick for us, the point is more about the 'what' than the 'who'.

That's it. Offense is done. Top-five unit, or your money back. I spent more resources than I wanted to, but I also added more than I expected.

So, what's the latest news on Revis? Is he in the building yet? Bahahahaha.

Oh, and since you've already wasted ten minutes reading this FanPost, what's another 13 seconds? I told you it was time to get dirty, filthy and nasty. Ryan Swope layin' the wood for his quarterback....

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Two blowhards walk into a bar. They start chatting it up about Darelle Revis...

I know, I know. You've heard it before, but man! It just cracks me up every time. Fine, we'll move on...

Offensive Line.

Coaches, players and fans alike still feel the sting of that heartbreaking loss in front of a home crowd, and they certainly remember the team's inability to pound the rock when it mattered most.

And for what it's worth, "they" lied to you again. Time doesn't heal all wounds. Only winning does.

Running Back.

Wide Receiver.

Look for the Broncos to double-dip again here, adding free agent(s) as well as draftee(s).

Oh, and patent pending on "The Great White Swope"(TM).

Tight End.

Summary.

That's it. Offense is done. Top-five unit, or your money back. I spent more resources than I wanted to, but I also added more than I expected.

So, what's the latest news on Revis? Is he in the building yet? Bahahahaha.

Poll

What position should the Broncos use the nuclear option at? That's the first-round pick, btw.

Cornerback

28 votes

Safety

10 votes

Defensive End

37 votes

Defensive Tackle

54 votes

Offense

16 votes

145 votes | Poll has closed

False Positives, And The Real Broken Arrow

Rodney Adams — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 15:45:00 -0000

You're leaving work a bit early on a late Friday afternoon. Out to your car, open the door, turn the key. Click. Click. Click. Crap, dead battery. You run back in to ask Paul for a jump. He agrees, and on your way back down you're trying to remember if the lights were left on. Bonehead, you started flipping switches when it wouldn't start so now you don't remember. Oh well, now you're off on your merry way.

A quick stop to get a haircut and then a stop at the mall to do a little clothes shopping. You've got a hot date later. Her name is Molly Jenson and she's a school teacher from Oregon. Cute, too. Out to your car you go and there it goes again. Click. Click. Click. Well, obviously this isn't going to work. At least you know now so that you don't get embarrassed during your date later. A quick stop at Napa Auto Parts for a new battery - they even install it for you, nice guy that Jerry is. Crisis averted and now you're on your way to get changed for your date. Gotta hurry, though. You live 45 minutes away and then she lives 25 minutes from your house.

Lookin' fresh to death you head out to your car, you get in and BAM! It starts up with no problems. Nice! Up to her door you go. A little hello, howdie do, eventually back outside where you open the car door for her (like the gentleman we know you are). Click. Click. Click. Urgggg.

It wasn't the battery, stupid. Good luck getting Ms. Jenson to practice anatomy with you now.

What Johnny Suave was seeing in that story was a false positive, which wound up having him fix the symptom rather than the root problem. It doesn't really make him stupid, not at all. Football is also full of these false positives. Having problems covering the tight end? Get a new coverage guy. Still having problems? Get a new coverage guy.

Nope, it's not the battery stupid.

Take a team with a bad defensive line, for example. (And I'm choosing that example so that you know it's not us I‘m talking about here. As you know, we were elite in run defense last year and also led the league in sacks.) Ok, so if this team can't get to the quarterback with their front-four then they're forced to use linebackers and safeties to blitz more often than the average bear would. This means less guys in coverage, meaning maybe more tight ends running open and whatnot.

Most of us are going to see the symptoms of the problem - the numbers that indicate coverage deficiencies. We'll in turn assume that the linebackers can't cover. Since the sack numbers as a whole are still fine, the issue that's going to jump out at you is the short-area coverage. If the defensive line is bad enough, then maybe more fans will catch on - but how many people are going to catch this "false positive" if the defensive line is supposed to be really really good?

The Broncos led the league in sacks last year and our run-defense was elite. We've got VonDoom and the Wolfe Pack working in a Del Rio defense. Did I mention 52 sacks? If the tight ends are still getting open then it's because our linebackers can't cover well enough. End of story.

Nope. It's not the battery, stupid.

What's a Wolfe? What's our biggest weakness? How do we stop tight ends from running wild? If you answer these questions the way I do, then you'll probably draft who I draft. Welcome to the Matrix and its interweb of intertwined problems and solutions. In the world of football, things are often more complex than they appear. It's a world where every action has a reaction, and every non-action has a consequence. Every problem has a symptom and sometimes you only see the symptom instead of the problem.

My friends, I'm not going to try to further Jedi mind trick you on this one. From a pass-rush perspective, our defensive line is broken. And I'm not just talking about the interior pressure that everyone knows we need.

Pressure from the front-four? Sheesh, we can't even get pressure from the front-eight - the whole stable of fatties. And yet, this really is an easy problem to miss and dismiss, and it doesn't really make us stupid. For some reason I just really like saying it.... It's not the battery, stupid.

Broken arrow. I say again, broken arrow.

Would it surprise you to know that linebacker Wesley Woodyard had more sacks by himself than 6 of our 8 linemen combined for? Seven of our eight linemen combined for a grand total of 10 sacks. Ouch! Three of our defensive tackles never even got to do a single sack dance. Two of our defensive ends combined for one sack from that position. Hecks, even our defensive backs, just three of them in fact, combined for more sacks than six linemen combined for. It's just not normal.

Thing is, when you have VonDoom and the Wolfe in a Del Rio defense, you can lead the league in sacks even with a DL who couldn't otherwise sack a quarterback if he was rolled inside a jelly doughnut. To achieve that goal, however, you've got to send a lot more blitzers, which in turn creates its own set of problems. And it can trick you into thinking it was the battery instead of the root cause which was actually the alternator - or in this case, it makes you think the problem was with our short-area coverage.

When you've only got about 40% of your sacks coming from the defensive line as a whole, it means you‘re blitzing linebackers and defensive backs to attain the pressures you seek. Which means less guys in coverage and more tight ends catching more balls. It means you don't have enough troops on the back end to put a frat boy in a bracket across the middle of the field.

Ever noticed we don't often see the same problem in the same game? It's the teeter-totter effect. If you focus on shutting down Gronkowski, you can probably do a fairly good job, but the effect is that you can't get pressure on Brady. The guys you would have blitzed him with are now instead focused on the TE, and since the front-four isn't getting pressure on its own, Mr. Uggs is going to pick you apart.

Choose the red pill and you will get more sacks, but then the tight ends and running backs are going to have an easier time going bananas on you. If you choose the blue pill, the only pass rush you're going to get is coming off the edges. One way or another, you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.

So we need to spend our golden ticket on a defensive tackle and we all good, right? Well, it depends on how you answer that question from earlier. What's a Wolfe?

In his Senior season in the Big East, Defensive Tackle Derek Wolfe had 70 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, a pass breakup and a partridge in a pear tree. He flew under the radar for whatever reason but those stats are absolutely eye popping.

He was our first pick in last year's draft and started all 16 games at LDE for us. But I'm here to tell you that it wasn't by design. The plan for Wolfe, as Foxy Bear stated right from the beginning, was to fatten him up. This guy stands 6'5 and has plenty of room to add additional muscle to make him more dominant on the inside. Not all things go according to plan, however.

Robert Ayers can't get to the quarterback, so Jason Hunter took Robert's starting role at defensive end right out of the gate. Then Hunter was lost for the year during the offseason, at which time the plan for Derek Wolfe got tossed on its ear. Derek was asked to play defensive end as a result of Hunter's injury, and since you really don't want a 315 pound DE in a 4-3 defense, the plan to add weight was put on hold.

So again then, what's a Wolfe? Well regardless of what he was last year, he's a defensive tackle going forward. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

In his first year as a pro, Derek Wolfe was in for an enormous amount of snaps, splitting time between DE and DT. He gobbled up six sacks in that first year - I'm told about half from each position. That's a fantastic number considering that interior linemen generally have some of the toughest transitions to the NFL level. Defensive Tackles in college face off against guys who were generally not good enough to be offensive tackles in college, whereas in the NFL they're often facing off against ex-tackles. Make sense? In other words, the jump in talent these guys are facing is extreme, and it often makes the transition slower and tougher.

BJ Raji, as example, had just one sack in his first year. Nick Fairley had one sack in his first year. Even Marcel Dareus and JJ Watt had less sacks in their first year than the Wolfe had in his first year. Now a few of Wolfe's sacks came from the outside, which sort of makes this like comparing 6 apples to 3 red apples and 3 green apples, but it's close enough to get the point across. And I'm not trying to say Derek Wolfe is on the level of Ndamukong Suh anyway. I'm just pointing out that he had an incredibly productive year and that it's only going to get better.

Average defensive tackles don't come into this league and notch six sacks as a rookie while learning two different positions. For him to start every game and be on the field basically every down, well what he accomplished is really something.

Derek Wolfe will be our starting defensive tackle for the 2013 season. He is our upgrade in the middle. Now you can draft another defensive tackle if you like, but for me, it won't be happening in the first-round because I think the Wolfe and Big Vick have the interior starter positions covered. Behind them, however, nobody is safe. And behind Elvis at DE, nobody is safe there either.

The greatest impact that can be made to the defense, in this guy's opinion, is by drafting a dominant, well-rounded LDE in the first-round of the upcoming draft. I consider this to be an extreme minority opinion, given that I've not seen a single mock draft from the media or here at MHR that has us going in that same direction. But I ain't scared.

The guy I want needs to be well-rounded and not just a sack-artist - because we already have one of those. This guy needs to be what Robert Ayers was supposed to be back in 2009. We're looking for a strong-side defensive end, so he shouldn't be projected to weigh under 270 pounds at the NFL level. He needs to be adept at setting the edge and defending the run. We don't need this guy to lead the league in sacks, we just need him to give us like 7 per year and a bunch of pressures. I say again: well-rounded is what we're looking for. We need a guy that can beat Right Tackles off the edge but also lay the wood to running backs.

Ironically enough, I actually argued against making defensive end a priority last year. But last year we had different needs. My opinions change as the facts change, and so for this year I argue that this is where we would get the most impact. I believe that by adding a DE and by moving Wolfe inside we'll immediately be immensely better at getting pressure from our front-four. By doing this and by using DJ Williams to upgrade the MLB position, I believe it will also combine to make us much better in coverage against the tight ends and backs. Now the key here is that I've only used one draft pick to make these upgrades, which is important because I think our budget for outside free agents this year is going to smaller than in any year in recent history.

It's also worth mentioning that defensive ends are much more expensive to pay for than a defensive tackle. So when you have a fairly equal option presenting itself, it's more prudent to draft the DE and to add the DT through free agency. Another issue worth mentioning is that Elvis Dumervil's contract could become a problem in the near future. While that doesn't mean it's time to even discuss his departure, it still might be time to start developing a backup plan.

For what it's worth, DT Sammy Lee Hill and DE William Hayes are the two free agents I'll be watching closest this offseason. And again, most of our defensive linemen should be afraid. A few of them will be replaced, even if it's not likely to be with high-profile guys.

In summation, by letting Wolfe wreck havoc from the inside and by adding a dominant LDE from the draft into our base packages, we can force the tight end to stay home in pass protection more often. And even in lesser instances they'll be forced to chip away, giving the tight end a slower release off the line. With VonDoom and the Wolfe Pack already in place, a dominant new LDE could actually force teams into max-protect mode with just 4-5 rushers coming at them. This would represent a major upgrade. Pressure from the front-four means more guys in coverage, more turnovers and less of us getting Graham'd.

Ladies and gentlemen, with the 28th pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, Rodney Adams selects...

DE Alex Okafor, Texas. 6'5, 261 pounds.

It wasn't the battery, stupid. Good luck getting Ms. Jenson to practice anatomy with you now.

Nope, it's not the battery stupid.

Nope. It's not the battery, stupid.

Broken arrow. I say again, broken arrow.

So we need to spend our golden ticket on a defensive tackle and we all good, right? Well, it depends on how you answer that question from earlier. What's a Wolfe?

So again then, what's a Wolfe? Well regardless of what he was last year, he's a defensive tackle going forward. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Ladies and gentlemen, with the 28th pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, Rodney Adams selects...

DE Alex Okafor, Texas. 6'5, 261 pounds.

Wanted: Tight End Killer, All Others Need Not Apply

Rodney Adams — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 12:02:17 -0000

So my girlfriend of six years cheated on me six months ago and we went through a really rough time there for a while. My family and friends knew all about it - knew all the sordid details, which made it all the tougher on me to stand proudly beside her during family functions and events. It got so bad to where she often times couldn't fulfill her job in the girlfriend role, having to stay home instead.

I kept having to hear about how I should have just dumped that dirty little Jezebel, as they called her, and really just took a lot of ribbing from everyone about my decision to stand beside her after what she did. It wasn't a good look for me, and my reputation certainly took a hit.

But we got through it, and things eventually got better. Here's where it gets tougher, though. She forgot to leave the toilet seat up yesterday and so now I'm thinking about moving on. There's a new girl that's moving into my neighborhood and I hear she's really pretty - sorta even reminds me of the girl that got away back when I was in high school.

False. Meet your cast of characters...

John Elway... Played by me.
DJ Williams... Played by my girlfriend.
Al Wilson... The girl who got away.
Coveted flavor of the week at MLB... Played by the new girl.

So my girlfriend didn't cheat, and I wouldn't have stood by her if she had, but DJ Williams did do dirt and John Elway did stand by him. Is it logical to think DJ Williams is going to be dumped now, after all we just went through with him? Did the Front Office really take it on the chin for six months only to then give up when it gets good?

Chew on that for just a bit, as we'll get back to it in more detail later. This is going to be an in-depth look at where we stand at the linebacker position going into the 2013 season.

The next Al Wilson.

We Bronco fans want to find the next Al Wilson at MLB... Just like we want to find Champ's eventual replacement, and just like we've searched for The Duke's replacement for the last 15 years or so. But these men aren't coming back. There will never be another Al Wilson. Sure, truth tastes like a rotten apple sometimes but denial tastes worse. We need to stop pining after the one that got away because he's never coming back. Like, ever.

We don't need the next Al Wilson, my friends. What we need is a Tight End Killer.

Now I'm not sure if I coined the phrase "Tight End Killer" or if I stole it from somebody, but I'm really starting to grow more and more attached to it. Continually getting Gronk'd and Graham'd and Hernandized isn't all that fun. In fact, it pretty well sucks. Oh, patent pending on those terms, too. See what I did there? Yep, you just got Gronk'd (TM).

I'm as big an Al Wilson fan as any of you out there, and I mean absolutely zero disrespect to his legacy. Still, if we're looking at MLBs in the first-round of the upcoming draft, then we need to stop looking for the last guy who loudly and proudly led a Broncos defense from that position, and instead we need to start looking for the first guy who can cover Jimmy Graham. Good luck, you say? I know and I hear you, my peeps. Loud and clear, I hear you. And yet I ask you in return, nay I challenge you in return... name me an NFL trend that has never been countered.

This too shall pass.

Blankets of sorority girls are not the only thing on earth with the ability to cover the Rob Gronkowsi's of the world. Of this I promise you. Somebody, somewhere is going to find the key to this mystery and we don't have to wait for Bill Bellichick to be that guy.

But are we really going to find a guy in the upcoming draft that can keep us from getting continually Hernandized? Well, I can't promise you that. But what I can promise you is that you won't find a TE Killer if you're instead looking for the next Al Wilson. Nothing but luv for ya Al, but it's just time to move on.

Intense leadership a la Al Wilson can get players fired up before the snap, but only a true TE Killer can actually kill Tight Ends after the snap.

Quick. It's 4th and goal from the two yard line. Your Wide receivers and everybody on the roster that can catch a ball also caught the clap and stayed home for the day. Your quarterback broke his pinky toe on the last play, so having him go all Tebow on ‘em isn't an option. You've got two running backs. One of them is a great leader. One of them has the short-yardage skillset and the talent needed for this specific situation. Who‘s going to pound the rock?

Leadership and heart, boys and girls, are a great thing and a noble idea, but Rudy Rutiger is still going to get flattened if you ask him to score in that scenario. It's not so much different when you're asking fiery thumpers to be an upgrade in coverage.

One needs not look too far back to find horror stories of teams looking for an Al Wilson type and instead ending up with a two-down run-thumper of a MLB, which is essentially a busted pick in the first-round. Rolando McClain is a perfect example that jumps off the page. Taken 8th overall in the 2010 draft by the Raiders, and very popular around here as well, McClain was roundly considered "the heart and soul of the Alabama defense" by coaches, players and fans alike. But there were hitches to his game. His elite size and intense leadership got people to ignore the warning signs about his coverage abilities... but they were there. And so he should serve as a warning bell to all of us here, too. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, and I‘m probably going to be employed by the Raiders.

Leadership will come from somewhere eventually. Trust that. Wesley Woodyard has been a Captain here for a long time. Is it really so hard to believe that he starts to lead the defense now that he's going into his second year as a starter? Maybe Von the Don will truly earn that nickname and become boss of this mafia family. Quinton Carter could become the next Brian Dawkins out at safety. Hecks, I don't know. All I know is that we shouldn't try to force it. Nothing good will come.

Blah, blah, blah.

I feel like I'm going on and on about this, so let me just summarize this part so we can move on. For this team, for this year, to upgrade this specific weaknesses... Leadership, good. Coverage skills, better. If it's not there, don't force it - not early in the draft anyway. And the easy truth is that if the prospect you're looking at wasn't dominating in coverage at the college level, then he's not going to stop us from getting Gronk'd in the NFL. Which means he's not an upgrade at what you're buying him to upgrade us at. Knowledge. Dropped.

Getting back to the broader topic here, the Broncos line-backing corps is actually a unit of strength if you ask me, and so maybe we shouldn't be so desperate to find round pegs to fit into square holes anyway. Wesley Woodyard is a stud WLB, Von Miller is a boss on the other side, and then there's the perceived hole at MLB. But is it really such a hole?

Defending DJ. Again.

At this time of year, every year, Bronco fans look to get rid of DJ Williams somehow. This year they have more ammunition and better reasoning to do so, although it should be noted that none of it is due to his actual football skills.

DJ is our veteran pro-bowl caliber linebacker and terrific all around athlete, for those that don't know. He's best playing WLB, but he is capable of playing at any of the positions, and has experience playing all of them too. Think of it like this: DJ Williams is to MLB as Von Miller is to a 4-3 defense. I know, deep right? Both are better suited elsewhere, but both are so good at their job that they can make impact from pretty much anywhere. I'm guessing I'm going to take a bit of heat for that, but I'm good with that.

DJ isn't popular with fans, but he doesn't have that problem in the locker room or with his coaches. Williams doesn't make the bone crushing hits, he doesn't put up double digit sacks and he doesn't verbally lead the squad a al Ray Lewis. He doesn't even like talking to the media. Those are all things that get the attention of fans, but all DJ does instead is tackle everything that moves.

He's never been, nor will he ever be, a threat to win a popularity contest outside the locker room. However, every coaching staff stretching back to Mike Shanahan has loved this guy. And his teammates certainly feel the same.

Over the past year DJ was a bone head off the football field, and was out due to suspension for half the season. But the team stuck with him. And they got him back in the arena just as soon as was allowed, giving him more playing time with each passing week.

Is DJ Williams really on the outs? Is there really no plan for him on this team moving forward? Most fans have forgotten about him. Most media outlets have written him off. But don't get hit with the "they" stick.

Remember the story from the beginning? Well, maybe we should have forgiven DJ for his transgressions, maybe not. But make no mistake about it, he was forgiven. He was supported both in the Front Office and in the locker room. They stood shoulder to shoulder with him during his darkest days. And now, well now that day is dead, folks. We don't get to do that over even if you wanted to. I would argue that The Johns have already told us loud and clear that this team still has a plan for DJ. Their actions told us this, all we had to do was pay attention.

You want a new middle linebacker? DJ Williams is likely it. He's a tackling machine and he's the best coverage linebacker the Broncos have. He is an upgrade. Show me a TE Killer in the first-round, and I'm open to listening. But I don't see one.

I'm not buying the bridge "they" are trying to sell me on Manti Teo either - that his draft stock plummeted to the 2nd round due to him getting Catfished. We've all seen this movie before, no pun intended, and we know how it ends. I'm guessing his stock will magically surge again before the draft. Oh, and boy gets girl. The End.

Now if you don't pay close attention here, it could seem a bit like I'm saying things that are at odds with each other. I'm saying I want a TE Killer. I'm saying a solution can be found. And yet, I'm saying we can't find one so forget about it. Well, sort of. I'm saying that if we don't see a TE Killer in the first-round - which I personally don't see, as of yet - then there is no other reason to kick DJ to the curb or to look for a new starting MLB. Say it with me, everybody: DJ Williams is already an upgrade at the MLB position. And there is also more than one way to skin a Patriot, of which I have another idea I'll be getting to in my next post.

Wrapping it up.

Wesley Woodyard, DJ Williams and Von Miller is a trio that more than 25 teams would trade theirs to have ours. Don't believe me? Name three....

This is a young group of starters with absolutely blazing fast speed and with no real weaknesses. In fact, I'll bet you a talking dragon that none of your favorite prospects at the combine can outrun any of my starting linebackers - all three of which three have run the 40 yard dash in the 4.4s. Um, ya. That's not normal.

Further down the depth chart, last year's rookie Danny Trevathon (backup WILL) showed a ton of promise in his first year, and then we've got the eerily silent Nate Irving backing up the SLB position. (Knock, knock. Nate, my dude, hello in there?) Further down the list, it's unlikely that Joe Mays will be back at MLB for $4M per year, and then Keith Brooking is also a question mark.

As for what we need to add, let me just sum it up by saying any TE Killer available at any position is a game-changer and a rule-breaker. Whether it's a corner, a safety or a linebacker, and without regard to what round of the draft we‘re talking about... if you're sure he can do the job, and if he represents the greatest impact at that draft slot, then let's grab him up. Nobody is going to mock you for mocking him (get it? Man, I kill me).

That said, our noble quest for a TE Killer is not the same as us needing a new starting MLB. It's just not.

DJ Williams can play MIKE for us next year. And he'll like it. He'll do it for The Johns, and he'll probably have his best year as a pro while doing it. He'll stand and deliver for them because, for one, they stood up for him, and for two, because DJ Williams actually has the skill set to do it.

If I turn out to be wrong on DJ Williams, then you could pretty much throw out this entire post and chalk it up to being meaningless blabber. The entire strategy would change. This is the third post in three years I've written defending DJ, though. And he hasn't failed me yet.

BroncoMath101 wrote a post the other day about Brad Jones, a backup linebacker for the Green Bay Packers, and it's certainly worth a read. Another guy that recently caught my eye is Washington Redskins backup linebacker Rob Jackson. There's a comment of mine in that FanPost describing a bit about him and asking if others know more details. What these men have in common is that they're young, affordable and excellent in coverage. One is a Free Agent, one of them is restricted, but neither of them would represent a major commitment. These are the type of guys I think we're likely to look at to fill out our depth.

Now if you're still a little bit scared of the big bad Gronkowski and fear that I haven't yet done enough to stop him, well fear not my fantastic fellows... I'll be spending our first-round draft pick in the next installment and it should help to keep that overgrown frat boy home where he belongs. Looking forward to your thoughts...

False. Meet your cast of characters...

John Elway... Played by me.
DJ Williams... Played by my girlfriend.
Al Wilson... The girl who got away.
Coveted flavor of the week at MLB... Played by the new girl.

Chew on that for just a bit, as we'll get back to it in more detail later. This is going to be an in-depth look at where we stand at the linebacker position going into the 2013 season.

The next Al Wilson.

We don't need the next Al Wilson, my friends. What we need is a Tight End Killer.

This too shall pass.

Intense leadership a la Al Wilson can get players fired up before the snap, but only a true TE Killer can actually kill Tight Ends after the snap.

Blah, blah, blah.

Defending DJ. Again.

Wrapping it up.

Wesley Woodyard, DJ Williams and Von Miller is a trio that more than 25 teams would trade theirs to have ours. Don't believe me? Name three....

That said, our noble quest for a TE Killer is not the same as us needing a new starting MLB. It's just not.

Cornerbacks; Free Agents and the Draft

Rodney Adams — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 06:11:40 -0000

You ever hear the one about the Broncos being interested in Darrelle Revis? OK, here goes…

Two blowhards walk into a bar, and “they” say the Denver Broncos are interested in acquiring Revis Island.

So now people think the Broncos are interested in Revis Island.

Get it? That’s it. That’s the joke. Now people think the Broncos are interested in Darrelle Revis. Urggg.

Can you really imagine somebody who gets paid for their opinions, sitting at a desk in Dove Valley pitching the idea of spending a 1st and 2nd round pick, along with $12M per year and a fat signing bonus, to trade for Darrelle Revis - to a team that already ranks 3rd against the pass, 2nd in overall yards allowed and 4th in points allowed? I mean, it would have to be a joke right? April Fools Day? You may as well Donald Trump your self if it‘s not a joke, because you is fired my dude.

Too much money. Too many resources.

I’ve heard the other jokes about how the Denver Broncos could afford it too, what with our whopping $20M in cap room and whatnot.

Folks that follow this line of reasoning probably don‘t play Monopoly very well. You see, Boardwalk and Park Place are nice, but if by attaining these pieces you’ve sacrificed your ability to build around them, well then, I’m guessing you probably learned this strategy in Oakland. Or Philly. And here’s a hint.. They lose a lot.

The Eagles tried out that “dream team” approach only a couple years ago. Exhibit A in what not to do. The Broncos, instead, look to shore up weaknesses through free agency merely as a means to an end. Peyton Manning was an exception to the rule, my friends. Peyton Manning is an exception to every rule. Overall, though, The Johns have shown us a clear business model. They buy relatively bargain free agents to fill holes so that they can be more flexible in the draft - so that they‘re not so desperate at a position so as to reach for it.

Now I still fully believe that the Best Player Available (“BPA“) approach is a myth like unicorns and good Justin Beiber songs, but by not being desperate for a specific position, the Broncos are then in better shape to move back from the first-round or to take value in the other rounds.

My guess is that John Elway doesn’t view Free Agency as the brick and mortar used to build a team; he sees it as the putty used to temporarily fix the cracks and the leaks of previous mistakes. Free agency, to Elway, is for short-term solutions, while the draft is for long-term solutions. In other words, Revis Island is not a location on John Elway’s map.

The key three at corner for the Broncos are Champ Bailey, Chris Harris and Tony Carter. Two phenomenal youngsters in their prime and an aging superstar. Since Revis is an absolute non-option, many of us are now looking to the first-round to “eventually replace Champ“. But here’s the thing with that, if you want to draft a first-round corner, you better have a plan for how to get immediate impact from him. That’s a true story folks. Newton’s ninth law states that all first-rounders are expected to make impact, even though they sometimes don’t.

You only get a first-round pick about as often as you get a birthday, so the trick is to use it wisely. The guy you draft needs to be at a position where there is room for him to make impact. So what’s the plan, I ask you, in drafting a CB in the first-round? Who does he replace and upgrade in this 3rd ranked pass defense? Until you can answer that, you’re not allowed to mock-draft a CB to the Broncos in the first-round ever again. This also is law, I do hereby decree. Kidding, of course. Well, kind of. Or not. I report, you decide. Welcome to the Spin Zone.

OK, behind the key three, you’ve got the talented yet enigmatic Tracy Porter, and then 2012 4th rounder Omar Boldin. That’s five corners. Teams generally keep five corners. So if you add a corner before say the 5th round, then it means one of these guys have to go.

Omar Boldin will be gunning to take somebody’s job in 2013, and has recently said exactly that. Not that it will be easy, but it’s certainly not time to give up on this 2nd year player either. It’s tough to crack the lineup of an elite pass defense, so let’s not fault him for that.

Champ had a bad day on a horrible day to have a bad day, but he’s not going anywhere either. Chris Harris is a young rockstar and Tony Carter isn’t too far behind him. One of Taylor Swift’s breakup songs is, in fact, rumored to have been written about young Chris Harris. That’s how cool he is. So “they” say, anyway.

Speaking of our young guns, I want to underline for a moment that four of our five corners are age 26 or younger and still developing. I’m going to say that again…. Still developing, all those guys. Still very young, those guys, and were a major part of an elite defense and an elite pass defense. Begs the question, are we really in such dire need for a corner? Well anyway, Champ Bailey, Chris Harris, Tony Carter and Omar Boldin are all four locks to make the roster. We can bank on that much.

As for Porter, the fifth and final piece to this puzzle, well he’s actually another puzzle unto himself - a puzzle that I’ve only gotten the corners completed on thus far. Truth is, I don’t know what’s going to happen with Tracy, but I’d bet dollars to doughnuts he’d be willing to sign somewhere for about $2M per year on a short term deal. That’s half of what he got paid last year, which seems like a good ballpark figure after the year he had.

On the flip side, however, and while the complete reasoning still remains murky, Tracy appears to be on the outside looking in at this point. He’s the one with the biggest bubble over his head. Well, actually he’s the only “bubble player” at corner. He’s the only question mark here. Keep him and we’re set. Dismiss him and we need to add one.

So back to the beginning we go. The short of it is that fans want to draft Champ Bailey’s replacement to groom. Just like they did last year. And the year before that. Just like I wanted to be a little bit taller. And to have a slumber party with Mila Kunis. But again, for this year at least, it’s probably not going to happen.

It’s not that I expect us to avoid this position like the plague when April rolls around, because I don’t. Corners are too important to ignore. It’s just that no person we draft at corner is likely to give us the immediate impact and upgrade you seek with a 1st round pick. Thus making other positions higher on our to-draft list.

Also, I have a hard time believing that any corner we take in the 2nd or 3rd round would have as much upside as Tracy Porter still has. We’ve spent a year with him and for the very affordable rate at which I believe we could retain him, I think he’s worth another year to see if he can be coached out of his bad habits and to get past his health issues. My guess, however, is that the front office and/or the coaching staff disagrees with me. For whatever reason, my Magic 8Ball is telling me that Del Rio never forgave him for that one horrible performance he had early in the season when he got toasted and benched.

I’m hoping Tracy Porter remains a Broncos, thus making the entire position group a non-issue. That’s my hope, but my gut is telling me that it is more likely than not that Tracy Porter has played his last down as a Denver Bronco. Truth be told, Porter might not be ubber interested in re-signing here anyway. He would have an easier time becoming an actual starter elsewhere than he would have here in just cracking the rotation into the key-three with the Broncos. He has to know how tough it would be to get playing time in this elite defense. Which is, again, the same problem Boldin had last year, and is the same problem any new draft pick will have this year. So how badly do we really need a cornerback again?

If Tracy Porter does indeed get the ax, then drafting a cornerback becomes infinitely more likely. I still don’t think you draft one in the first-round, because for all intents and purposes, that guy isn’t likely to play anything but special teams in his first year. But I do think that with Tracy gone, combined with Champ’s age, then it would be time to draft a true stud to groom up. The two issues, when combined together, could potentially bring a total non-need to the forefront of needs at the speed of light. The reason is that once you’re already in need of a corner, and once you have room to add one, then the issue becomes about replacing Champ Bailey rather than about replacing Tracy Porter. It likely makes us more willing to pay a heavy price to obtain that lotto ticket.

In my mind, this would become a Brock Osweiler-esque situation. Ideally, you would want a guy whose main reason for not going in the first round is due to his relative rawness. Like Os, the tradeoff here should be that he has more of what you can’t teach and less of what you can. People don’t often draft corners in the first-round that can’t immediately produce, so let‘s just look to steal the one that gets away... We don’t need our guy to immediately produce anyway. Essentially, we want the guy with the higher ceiling but who is also less NFL-ready. We want the guy that’s too promising and too good to be called a project, but also not ready and polished enough to be taken in the first-round.

For comparison’s sake, let’s say I would take David Amerson (North Carolina State) in the 2nd round over maybe Jamar Taylor (Boise State). Amerson gave up big plays last year and many see him as having potentially come out a year too early. He needs additional coaching and experience to refine his craft before being trusted with a hefty work load, but his elite size and elite ball skills give him the edge over the more ready and speedy Jamar Taylor. That would not be the case, however, with a team who was looking for immediate production.

I’m Rodney A, a long-time contributor here at MHR that got banned prior to the start of the season. If this profile isn’t banned also, and if people are interested in the post, I’ll follow this up in a few days with my thoughts on MLB and then DL, eventually ending in a unique name and position that I think we’re most likely to draft. If this profile gets banned and the post deleted, I’ll work to start posting at SB Nation sister site, MockingTheDraft, during the offseason. Looking forward to your thoughts…

You ever hear the one about the Broncos being interested in Darrelle Revis? OK, here goes…

Two blowhards walk into a bar, and “they” say the Denver Broncos are interested in acquiring Revis Island.

So now people think the Broncos are interested in Revis Island.

Get it? That’s it. That’s the joke. Now people think the Broncos are interested in Darrelle Revis. Urggg.

Too much money. Too many resources.

I’ve heard the other jokes about how the Denver Broncos could afford it too, what with our whopping $20M in cap room and whatnot.