Happy Friday y'all.

- Anthony Davis, who won the NCAA national championship in New Orleans in March, appeared to welcome an opportunity to play for the Hornets yesterday after the draft lottery. Quoth Davis: ""This can kind of bring joy back to New Orleans. I guess I get lucky when I go there."

- The Times-Picayune reports that season ticket sales have been brisk since the lottery. There's even a quote from Hornets-fan-poseur-extraordinaire "Little Wayne" - "Anthony Davis to the Hornets!!?! I’ movin bak home." Okay, sure.

- This isn't Hornets-related but CharlotteBobcats.com will probably make you laugh.

- Continuing on the subject of humor, a CBS "column" suggested the Hornets explore a #1 pick for Dwight Howard trade. I think not linking this one is for the best.

- (For the record, not linking any conspiracy stuff either. There were representatives from every lottery team, a private accounting firm, and prominent members of the media present during the lottery. If someone seriously thinks that every team in the league (extending to previous years) is complicit in a massive conspiracy that shifts league balance annually, good for you).

- A look at the winners and losers of the draft lottery.

[A re-post. When I wrote this two months ago, I was relatively convinced we wouldn't be getting Anthony Davis; now, most likely, we are. Huzzah. - R]

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He's been called the most impressive defensive college prospect in multiple decades, labeled "one of the most physically gifted players on this planet at the moment," with "the potential to not only star at the next level, but set off a chain reaction of new ideas." He steals from guards on the perimeter, blocks forwards in mid-range, and erases just about every attempt around the rim. He tip slams, he crosses over, he shoots threes.

He is Anthony Davis and, given health, he will be the number one overall pick this June.

Continue reading this post »

The Hornets won the draft lottery yesterday and will select at #10 and #1. There will be plenty of discussion about the selections themselves, but I kind of just want to take a day to relive last night.

First, here's the full video in all its glory:

Personally, I couldn't bring myself to actually look at the TV screen. I'd just finished working out, came inside, and laid flat on my living room floor, drenched in sweat, staring at the ceiling, with the TV on. I couldn't really tell how much of my heartbeat was from physical exertion and how much was due to nervousness, though the latter probably took over when ESPN cut to that OH-GOD-NOT-NOW-WHY-GO-BACK-GO-BACK commercial between the top 3 and the rest.

And then when it did cut back, I felt strangely calm, at least for a few seconds, before absolutely losing it when the 2nd pick came up. I still don't think it's actually hit me that we'll be getting the best defensive (and quite possibly overall) college prospect in multiple decades. But here we are.

I'm interested in hearing some of your lottery reactions/experiences too. Anyone break anything? Climb a tree? Scare your neighbors into calling the cops? How'd y'all celebrate? And if you're a new fan or longtime lurker or anything in between, feel free to jump in as well. It's a new era in Hornets basketball.

Proceed.

So here it is - the day we've counted down towards from the moment Chris Paul jumped ship.

The draft lottery will be televised on ESPN at 7 CST. The Hornets have selections lined up in the 10th and 4th (3.5th) spots. Today is more prelude to a month of draft analysis than endgame in and of itself, excepting, of course, that one of our picks ends up being that pick. There's 14.8% odds of that happening, and 46.4% of at least one pick landing in the top 3.

For those not familiar with how the lottery works, the order is revealed in reverse; if New Orleans doesn't show up at #10, something quite pleasant has occurred. Monty Williams will be the Hornets' representative on stage, with GM Dell Demps also expected to be sitting in the audience.

And so, for the first time in months and months and months, I can say this and genuinely mean it: Go Hornets.

[Reposting this slightly-updated story originally from 2010 looking at the Hornets in the lottery. The 2012 lottery is tomorrow (Wednesday) at 6:30 PM CST. Link to the original story is here. -R]

With the draft lottery only three days away now, I thought it'd be interesting to look back at each of the previous times the Hornets have been in the lottery.

Graphically:

The draft slot essentially refers to the Hornets' place in the standings, in reverse order. Some points of note:

• The odds for the top 3 in 1990, 1991, and 1992 have to be wrong, I'm assuming. I got the data from DraftExpress; if the only way the Hornets could land in the top 3 in any of those years was to get the #1 overall pick, how did they get the #2 pick in 1992?
• New Orleans nabbed Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning at #1 and #2, at long odds for each. As bad as the franchise was in its inaugural years, it actually took them some luck to land those two guys.
• Check out 1999! The Hornets had 1.8% odds of getting a top 3 pick (more than a percentage point lower than our 2010 odds) and they nailed it. That was the year they took Baron Davis at 3, out of UCLA, behind Elton Brand and Steve Francis.
• The top 3 selection of 1999 was the last the Hornets had for the next five seasons. In between, they fired a couple coaches, switched GM's, came within a game of the Eastern Conference Finals, and oh, switched cities.
• The Hornets' average draft slot when in the lottery is 9.2, and their average pick is 7.1.
• 2005 came together rather oddly. The Hornets actually finished in a tie for the league's second worst record, with the Charlotte Bobcats. The teams had a coin flip at an owner's meeting, before the draft lottery. In case neither team picked up a top 3 draft selection, the coin flip determined which team would select ahead of the other. At the time, I don't recall it being that big of a deal; both the Bobcats and the Hornets had higher than 50% odds they'd get at least a top 3 pick. Of course, as luck would have it, the Bucks, Hawks, and Blazers nailed down the top three picks. The Hornets selected 4th, Charlotte selected 5th, and the rest is history.

Hey, look who it is! It is me. Hi.

MrWayneKeller has done a phenomenal job reviewing the seasons of the various Hornets over the past several weeks; most of the team's major contributors (using that term quite loosely) are in the books now. Starting this week, let's delve more closely into who should and shouldn't be around for the 2013 season from a financial perspective. This, via Storytellers Contracts, is the Hornets' cap situation for 2012-2013.

The asterisked players - Ayon and Watkins - don't have guaranteed deals. Including Ayon, New Orleans has $36,761,200 committed, or about $22M less than this season's salary cap. These eight players (minus Watkins) figure to be on the roster next year, unless Tom Benson decides to splash $28M (Okafor) or $15M (Ariza) on an amnesty. It's also conceivable that one of those two or Jarrett Jack has some trade value.

The remaining candidates for retention are then:

• Eric Gordon
• Carl Landry
• Chris Kaman
• Marco Belinelli
• Various minimums - Lance Thomas, Chris Johnson, etc.

Eric Gordon

Based on draft strategy, long term outlook, and other factors, Landry, Kaman, and Belinelli could all depart (more on them as the week unfolds). EG's situation is obviously different.

Gordon wanted and didn't receive an extension offer close to the max contract he could get this summer from another team and didn't get it. I wrote at the time that this was along the lines of 4 years, $58M, but Larry Coon's revised summation of the new CBA leads me to believe that it's actually closer to 4 years, $55M* because of a difference in projected BRI for max contract calculation.

*A base $12.9M as opposed to $14.5M with 4.5% raises ($0.58M) each season

In either case, it was a prudent decision for New Orleans at the time and remains one. Gordon showed many signs of an adequate recovery from injury as the season finished, and the team is surely monitoring his progress over the offseason.

Gordon still has his original three options available - (1) sign New Orleans' one-year qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next summer, (2) sign an offer sheet from another team and see if New Orleans will match it, or (3) sign a maximum offer sheet from New Orleans.

That third won't be happening, let's hope. The Hornets must submit a qualifying offer (basic or max) to Gordon by June 30th to retain his free agent rights. Option 3 means the Hornets would be submitting a qualifying offer of 5 years, $74M, almost $20M (and a full year) more than any other team could give him in restricted free agency, which opens July 1st. There are no scenarios under which I see this unfolding. Even if Gordon informs the team that he wants to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and that he'll be signing the basic qualifying offer, the Hornets could still negotiate a larger contract with Gordon than other teams could offer, but one that's smaller than the max offer sheet.

The clear next step is submitting the basic qualifying offer to Gordon before June 30th in order to retain the right of first refusal. I haven't seen it reported, but it's possible this has already been done. Gordon's agent then goes out, collects other teams' offers (Indiana easily has the space to max Gordon, even after re-signing Roy Hibbert), and the Hornets make their decision. I'm still firmly in favor of matching an offer in the 4y/55M range.

And so Gordon's future can be split into two overarching trees - "I Really, Really Don't Want to Stay" and "Meh."

"I Really, Really Don't Want to Stay*"

*Very little of what we've heard indicates this is the reality

Option 1 - Hornets decide he's worth the 5y/74M max*, Gordon decides heh, he does want to stay after all!

*keep in mind: each team only gets one of these 5 year (as opposed to 4) maxes under the current CBA. Using it on Gordon now could preclude the team from conceivably using it on a better player from the June draft.

Result: EG stays in NOLA long term

Option 2 - Hornets decide he's not worth the full max*, Gordon signs the basic one-year QO

*the Hornets could offer a smaller max that's larger than other teams' maxes but still smaller than the true max (eg, 4y/57M) because they can offer 7.5% raises per year as opposed to 4.5%. But ultimately, the big advantage comes down to the fifth year; if the Hornets are unwilling to make Gordon their 5-year max player, the difference is minimal (4y/57M vs. 4y/55M).

Result: EG plays in NOLA next season, free agent thereafter

Option 3 - Hornets decide he's worth the 5y/74M max, Gordon still doesn't want to stay*

*again, very unlikely

Result: EG plays in NOLA next season, free agent thereafter

"Meh"

(All of these operate under the assumption that the Hornets submit the basic QO to Gordon by June 30th. If they don't, Gordon becomes unrestricted this summer).

Option 4 - Another team signs Gordon to an offer sheet*, the Hornets match

*from above - the max another team can offer is 4y/55M.

Result: EG stays in NOLA long term

Option 5 - Another team signs Gordon to an offer sheet, the Hornets don't match, the offer sheet becomes a binding contract between Gordon and the other team

Result: EG leaves NOLA long term

Option 6 - Gordon doesn't sign or isn't offered any contracts by other teams, negotiates a contract independently with the Hornets*

* from above - the max the Hornets can offer for 4 or 5 years is 4y/57M or 5y/74M

Result: EG stays in NOLA long term

Option 7 - Gordon doesn't sign or isn't offered any contracts by other teams, fails to negotiate a contract independently with the Hornets

Result: EG plays in NOLA next season, free agent thereafter, or sits out the 2013 season without playing

***************

And there we are. Options 4 and 5 are most likely, with an outside shot at Option 6. Options 1-3 and 7, based on what we know now, are highly improbable.

The marginal NBA win costs about ~$2M in the current market; over his last 63 games (2010-2012), Gordon's play has been worth about 6 wins. A healthy Gordon, even one that doesn't improve past his current state, then figures to be worth about 8 wins or $16M a year. The most realistic maximum amount New Orleans needs to pay to retain Gordon this year is the max another team can offer - 4y/55M or $13.75M. That's a good deal less than what I'd estimate his "true" value at, and so everything eventually comes down to health.

How realistic is to expect ~80 game seasons from Gordon at this point? He'd need to average about 70 games a season to make up value for a 4y/55M (13.75M/yr) contract. Is 70 realistic? On the flip side of that, does the franchise have any option but to gamble on Gordon's health as it enters a radically new phase of its history? I'm not sure.

With the lottery coming up (next week!) and prospect discussion soon commencing, this will likely be the last time we seriously discuss Gordon's future until after the draft. Not much is likely to change between now and then.

But until then - would you match any offer for Gordon?

Still no Jarrett Jack apparently; Greivis Vasquez gets the start again next to Eric Gordon.

Eric Gordon's back.. Go Hornets!

Go Hornets.

Hornets are without Gustavo Ayon, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Emeka Okafor, and Trevor Ariza today. This should end well.

Go Hornets.

Until the second half, this game lacked most of the hostility and bite we were treated to on Thursday; despite the presence of Chris Paul, it was merely one slightly above average team beating down a very, very bad one. Eventually, we had the pleasure of a Clipper fan striking Monty Williams with a piece of trash and Blake Griffin hitting Trevor Ariza's midsection in mid-air, but even so, tonight was a throwback to the sleepy, meandering, pointless games that have come to define a season.

Continue reading this post »

I'm not nearly as excited for this game as I was for Friday's. Go Hornets?

He's been called the most impressive defensive college prospect in multiple decades, labeled "one of the most physically gifted players on this planet at the moment," with "the potential to not only star at the next level, but set off a chain reaction of new ideas." He steals from guards on the perimeter, blocks forwards in mid-range, and erases just about every attempt around the rim. He tip slams, he crosses over, he shoots threes.

He is Anthony Davis and, given health, he will be the number one overall pick this June.

Continue reading this post »

Happy Monday! The Hornets have a late tip at Staples today, so here are a couple links to keep you busy until then.

Continue reading this post »

Last night, Jason Smith did The Bad Thing to Blake Griffin. He has since been suspended by his Owner/The League, with his Owner/The League deeming a 2 game suspension appropriate punishment for his actions. Smith will now miss Sunday's encounter with the San Antonio Spurs as well as Chris Paul's reverse homecoming (his first homecoming, along with the rest of the Clippers' season, having presumably done enough to inform him that his new home doesn't differ tremendously from his old one).

But we're not here to gloat about Xavier Henry's jump shot or Chris Johnson's body mass index. (Though you can do both those things here). Today's all about The Bad Thing.

Continue reading this post »

It's been so long since I last rooted for the Hornets this completely.

Forgetting for a minute, the victory itself, just to fully appreciate every Jason Smith jumper and Chris Kaman block and Jarrett Jack crossover was freeing. And then there was the small matter of the game being absolutely stellar - from Samuel L. Jackson's Pulp Fiction inspired introduction (I'm absolutely saving his Hornets-themed monologue for the next time we're in the playoffs) to Chris Kaman repeatedly pummeling Blake Griffin in the face every time he attempted an overly ambitious dunk (more specifically on the Jason Smith tackle tomorrow) to the team's clutch defense. It all happened.

For one night, the impact of a win on lottery position didn't matter in the slightest. Yes, Chris Paul did a lot for this franchise and won't ever be forgotten, but beating him was pretty fantastic. Yes, his reasons for choosing to leave may have been worth considering, but ultimately, he chose another team. And we stomped that team in the fourth quarter tonight.

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And so here it is. Go Hornets!

Chris Paul is back in New Orleans today, three months after being traded and then not traded and then traded again. As he twat last night:

Back in the N.O!!!

— Chris Paul (@CP3) March 22, 2012

I haven't written about Chris Paul once since December. A lot of it is simply that he isn't a Hornet any more. But it partially comes down to this too: what is there to say?

For me at least, there's still far too much emotion here. I haven't been, nor will I ever be able to subscribe to the binary "when Paul was a Hornet, I cheered him; now that he's not, I won't." I don't see anything wrong with the mentality. It is, essentially, adherence to the basic definition of sports. But Paul's time here transcended that concept for me.

Chris Paul, alongside an appreciable helping of David West, was the New Orleans Hornets, from its post-Katrina return to the heights of 2008 to the subsequent implosion from a roster, management, and ownership perspective. Basketball lends itself to this superstar-franchise line blurring perhaps more than any other sport. Watch a guy dribble the ball a hundred times a game, a thousand times a month, tens of thousands of times a year, and you sink, willingly, into that space of repose so impossible to recreate in hindsight.

Don't get me wrong. I actively root against the Clippers quite frequently. I hate the way they play, their highly asymmetric effort, their owner. I really don't believe these Paul-Griffin Clippers will be a success from a championship contention perspective. And needless to say, I don't root the same way for Chris Paul from an individual perspective.

He's simply an idea that's gone missing.

It helps, I suppose, that I don't begrudge Paul's desire to leave New Orleans, the way many do. (And again, I sincerely hope that doesn't come across as judgement. If you want to boo your lungs out tonight, or even just maintain silence, please do so. The Demand, the Toast, the Trade weren't merely bad dreams). But I empathize with his logic of wanting out of an unstable ownership situation and, consequently, not giving a fresh, new, and highly competent GM and coaching duo their own shot at retaining him.

I don't care that he wasn't open with media that he may have wanted a trade as early as 2010. Unlike Dwight Howard or LeBron James, he made his intentions crystal clear to the team, and that's ultimately all that really matters. Eric Gordon and Minnesota's lottery pick don't happen without that communication. And so that helps for me, as does Paul's still unbroken bond with both the Hornets and New Orleans itself, documented in J.A. Adande's ESPN column today:

[He] avidly follows the Hornets, texting his former teammates to compliment them on good plays or following one of their infrequent victories.

"I'm emotionally connected to that team forever," Paul said this week.

"I still love that city. I always will. It's going to be crazy to be in a different uniform, especially playing against them. I'm so emotionally attached to the city and that team."

From his experiences, his play, his actions over the past half decade, you get the feeling that these are far more than just words. But that's exactly what makes this so tough to write about. Sincere or not, it almost doesn't matter. The Chris Paul Hornets era is over, and the post-CP3 one is off to the most dreadful (if necessarily so) of starts. That gray area in between is all we have now, and that it's fostered annoyance, detachment, and pure enjoyment all at once is simultaneously quite remarkable and understandable.

We watch sports because they're fun. We watch sports because they allow us to experience conflict in its most primordial sense without necessarily the physical engagement and repercussion. We watch sports because we live vicariously through them; we were all David West stepping back on Serge Ibaka, we were all Tyson Chandler snuffing out Dirk Nowitzki, we were all Chris Paul, head in hands, eyes in tears. We watch sports because we like to identify ourselves with things - with cities, with regions, with histories, with people. We watch sports because they let us dream.

And Chris Paul served as conduit to every last one of those things, on the grandest of scales. He wasn't 6 foot. He wasn't appreciated, for years, the way his peers were. He wasn't, at his experience, supposed to do the things he did. Chris Paul allowed us to witness that magic, to indulge our own underdog, underground mentality before "everyone else found out," to be, above all, sports fans.

In his absence, we're left with nothing but questions. We're left to re-examine the fundamental reasons we're fans of sport at all. So many, too many questions. Perhaps the most important of these - why the fuck should we root for this team to win ballgames?

There's really no good answer; all we have now is the hope that one year we'll be back there again.

And somehow, that's also really not the worst thing in the world. Because in sports, the idea of winning supersedes winning itself. 29 teams lose the NBA title every season, but 30 fan-bases still dream fondly of the next and the next and the next. Sports are sustained by imagination as much as accomplishment. The Chris Paul era never yielded a title, but with the ball in his hands, possession after possession, game after game, season after season, the idea of winning had never been stronger.

Chris Paul returns tonight, a Clipper and an Angeleno, galvanizing hopes and sparking fantasies for a different set of fans. It simultaneously hurts and doesn't matter, with a new era of ownership and players on the horizon. But we'd do well not to forget the dreams he inspired here and the heights he took us to.

Welcome home, Chris Paul. Thanks for all the basketball.

As it turns out, Carl Landry will not play tonight. Let the tanking commence.

Happy Peyton Manning is a Bronco day! Here's some Hornets links after the jump, two days before the homecoming of one Christopher Paul.

Continue reading this post »

Chris Kaman, not Dwight Howard, it's all happening!

The Hornets, still armed with Chris Kaman, take on the newly Nick Young and Javale McGee deprived Washington Wizards. Go Hornets?

Despite a plethora of moves across the NBA, including Stephen Jackson to the Spurs for Richard Jefferson, Derek Fisher to the Rockets for Jordan Hill, Andrew Bogut to the Warriors for Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh, Gerald Wallace to the Nets for a top-3 protected 2012 pick, Ramon Sessions to the Lakers, Nate McMillan's firing, Nene Hilario to the Wizards, Nick Young to the Clippers, and Javale McGee to the Nuggets, the Hornets were not participants at the deadline.

The Rockets acquired Portland's Marcus Camby essentially for free to fill a need at center, and while Indiana's trade for Toronto's Leandro Barbosa didn't necessarily preclude them from making a further move for Kaman, it could certainly have played a role in sealing that trade avenue. Towards the end of the deadline, there was reportedly interest from Milwaukee in Carl Landry, but nothing came to fruition.

So here we are. Dell Demps and the Hornets sat on a number of possible assets, including Landry, Kaman, and Jarrett Jack, and it's unclear immediately what the fallout will be. That they didn't make a single move in a deadline full of them, however, is rather disappointing.

According to various reports, Dwight Howard has officially removed the early termination option language from his contract, meaning he'll remain with the Orlando Magic through summer 2013. Prior to yesterday, there had been rampant speculation that the New Jersey Nets were in the lead to acquire Howard either through trade or during this summer's free agency, and while the former is still a possibility, the latter has now been ruled out.

While there probably aren't any direct Hornet implications (outside of how the complex Chris Kaman trade situation was likely also affected by the Dwight Howard market in terms of potential interest from teams like the Warriors), the league-wide effect is pretty clear. Howard and Chris Paul will both now be unrestricted free agents (without opt-out clauses, as each was scheduled to have this summer) in 2013, giving big market teams like Dallas, the Lakers, or the Nets a whole year to re-work their respective cap structures.

It's also worth mentioning, of course, that what's transpired with Howard and the Magic would have been the dream scenario with Chris Paul - hang onto the player until the trade deadline and hope he agreed to another year. The Magic, despite highly questionable decisions including a trade of Brandon Bass for the far inferior Glen Davis, have achieved that goal, at least for now.

According to various reports, the Milwaukee Bucks have agreed to send center Andrew Bogut and forward Stephen Jackson to the Golden State Warriors for guard Monta Ellis and forwards Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown. Neither team has officially confirmed the deal yet, though it appears that neither Ellis nor Udoh will participate in tonight's Warriors game.

The deal would appear to bolster the Bucks in the short term; the team is currently the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, and with Bogut out for the season, Milwaukee essentially replaces one (mediocre) contributor with two players that can have instant impacts - the scoring of Monta Ellis and the positive +/- magic of Ekpe Udoh.

In terms of the Hornets, the trade officially puts an end to the New Orleans/Orlando/Golden State rumor from yesterday which had Ellis headed to the Magic, Kaman to the Warriors, and undisclosed players to the Hornets. It's unclear whether that was actually a serious proposition or perhaps a fake rumor designed to open up the Dwight Howard market. Milwaukee itself was a rumored destination for Kaman, though the addition of Udoh would appear to rule them out as a candidate as well.

As far as Kaman goes, Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix reported on Twitter this afternoon that Houston remains interested in acquiring him.

It might be Chris Kaman's final game for the Hornets, but more likely, it may not be.

Go Hornets.

The New Orleans Hornets are currently negotiating with the Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors to complete a deal that would move at least nine different players between the three teams. Chris Kaman would be the outgoing piece from New Orleans, though it's unclear who (or what draft picks) would return to the Hornets, according to Jarrod Rudolph of RealGM:

Sources say Magic, Warriors & Hornets are discussing 3-team deal that would send Ellis and others to Magic. Nothing imminent at this point

— Jarrod N Rudolph (@MisterRudolph) March 12, 2012

Magic players said to be discussed: Redick, Q.Richardson, Turkoglu, Anderson and Orton. Hornets believed to be unloading Kaman in the deal

— Jarrod N Rudolph (@MisterRudolph) March 12, 2012

Nothing is imminent, but discussion are said to be ongoing.

— Jarrod N Rudolph (@MisterRudolph) March 12, 2012

Discussed deal would send Ellis, Dorell Wright and Andris Biedrins to the Magic, sources said.

— Jarrod N Rudolph (@MisterRudolph) March 12, 2012

Remember, a deal isn't a deal until it's done. We'll all have to wait and see.

— Jarrod N Rudolph (@MisterRudolph) March 12, 2012

From the language of those tweets, it's tough to tell who would be going to Golden State and who would be going to New Orleans (or, indeed, where Kaman would even be headed).