To bring some more fun to the "If they fought series" we should move on to different catagory than pure physical scariness.

 

To start, let's pit 4 guys who act like insane man-apes when they pitch near the end of games, who do you think win? (yes the definition of "win" is murky here, but that's part of the fun!)

 

 

The candidates...

 

 

via i669.photobucket.com

via strotty.files.wordpress.com

via blogs.tampabay.com

via i252.photobucket.com

 

So which one wins the battle of crazy man-apes?

Poll

Who wins?

11%

Joba

4 votes

60%

Valverde

21 votes

28%

Papalbon

10 votes

0%

K-rod

0 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed

 

So Brett Gardner is hitting very well for the Yankees so far,  with his first HR of the season today (my jaws dropped seeing that, no doubter HR from Brett Gardner????? really???)

 

I know it's small sample and all, but really nothing about his current line seem too statistically fluky,  his BABIP is high but not absurdly so, with his speed it probably can stay reasonablly high anyway.  looking at his current line you see a guy that seem to be just slightly playing over his head.

The most intriguing part is that he is whiffing at only 11% of his PA so far. that's quiet amazing, he was at 16% last year, both are HUGE improvements from his high minor #s.

Comming up, most of us doubted Gardner precisely because he whiffed way too much for a slap hitter. so we thought he'll just get badly overmatched either becaue he ends up whiffing a ton or because he keep poping up and get the bat knock out of his hand. but in reality neither have happened so far.

The Yanks have basically platooned him so far, but in the very limited sample there's nothing to suggest that he can't hit lefties . at least no reason to believe he's worse than Curtis Granderson against lefty, now with Granderson on the DL we'll probably see a better sample of him against left handers.

Whatever the case, the development so far is certainly quiet interesting indeed. do we have example of a guy dropping his K% by this much going from high minor to major? if he can even sustain the 09 k% he's a pretty legitimate player.

 

Pitcher A:

as a starter : 5.22 ERA .778 OPS against
as a reliever: 1.40 ERA .456 OPS against

Pitcher B:

as a starter : 4.18 ERA .759 OPS against
as a reliever: 1.50 ERA .512 OPS against

guess which one is Phil and Which one is Joba.

 

Also, you can look up pitch f/x data online of individual games pretty easily on http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/ 

here's some obvious pointers.

Phil Hughes on 5/25/09  , his best start last year , a 8 inning shutout aganist the Rangers.

average FB: 90.2 max FB 92.6

Joba Chamberlain on 6/1/09 (also one of his best starts, 8 inning against the Indians)

averaeg FB:  93.9 max 97.6

 

when both were pitching in in the pen, they both appeared in the 10/04 game as a reliever.

Phil : average  92.9 max 93.4

Joba :  average 94.2 max 95.7

(in the his last start 5 days before this game, Joba was 91.7 average 94.6 max)

The conclusion one can easily draw from this is that it's very normal for a guy to up their velo by 2-3 mph just by going from starting to pitching short stretches. so the reverse analysis of this is that Phil as a starter would still likely be sitting at 90mph on average..

Now sure, velocity isn't the only issue, indeed it seem that most of Joba's problem last year came on his fastball despite it being a faster pitch and Hughes does have better control (though not exactly by a huge margin). but it seems everyone have forgot that around this time last year (or rather around April / May last year) the "fad" was the "ZOMG PHIL HUGHES CAN'T CRACK 93 ON THE GUN!!!!" "Hughes could never hit 95 in his life! he's a hyped up bust!" type posts.

Seeing the above, it is easy to rational that unless something have change mechanically / health wise wtih Hughes since last year (i havn't been able to catch any ST games yet so I don't know.), he's still likely going to sit 90mph. so... is all that what all the guys voting Phil (which is what, 60%?) is thinking of when they're voting ?

 

 

I definately HOPE Phil can succeed as a starter, at the same time I find the evidence that support starting him over Joba RIGHT NOW , is sorely lacking, we're not even going into the whole innings issue yet.

 

 

 

According to Korean sources, Chan Ho Park signed with the Yanks for 1.2 M.  seems a bit odd of a signing, though Park as a reliever isn't terrible. 

Hmmm, looks like it's confirmed.

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100222&content_id=8110926

Park is obviously famous for his disastrous (and profitable) stint with Texas, but he had some nice years with the Dodgers (4 actually)  and he wasn't terrible as a reliever in the last couple of years.

His fast ball which had been clocked on average in the high 80 or very low 90s in Texas saw a noticeable uptick with the move to the pen, and he could usually sit 92-93 and hit some 95 . 

I guess this is OKish signing, though it begs the question of what they're going to do with Mitre? As it stands now it seems highly likely (that barring injuries) the pitching staff will look like...

CC / AJ  / Andy / Javy / Joba

Mo/Hughes/Robertson/Aceves / Marte / Gaudin/ Park 

Almost all of those are pretty much locks (As bad as Park can be at times, he's still better than Mitre.) 

Well Yankees pick up Golson from the Rangers for Hilligos.

 

Golson's a much better prospect... but that isn't saying much, seeing that he's a massive tools guy who has extremely limited (to put it nicely) hitting skills. he's probably still useful as a 5th OF due to speed and defense but the chances that he'll hit at even a remotely acceptable level in the majors seems slim at best. but the Rangers were out of 40 man space and have a super deep system anyway. 

Hilligos is kinda the exact opposite of Golson, he has some hitting skills but too little physical tools to cut it . if you combine to two you might end up with a pretty interesting player but individually they're both pretty useless, just that Hilligos at this point is even more useless than Golson. but still has a couple years left before rule 5.

 

Now, most of us who browse through these sites are certainly well aware with park factors and use them extensively in any baseball analysis, but I have some aspect of how it is done have bothered me for awhile now.

Namely, that most of the time we just have a flat number to multiply our raw OPS by. and we might look into how it inflates HR/Hits / doubles ... but..

1. it doesn't really take handedness into account

2. it doesn't take style into account.

Let's use the example of Yankee stadium , everyone knows that it has a short right field while the rest of the dimension tend to be normal (and use to be huge). thus, through the history of the Yankees they also loved them left handed sluggers. since they can just hit a modestly well lifted fly ball and it go out.  by this logic the park factors should be much higher for lefties. Joe DiMMagio hitting .900 in the ole stadium is not the same as a lefty hitting .900 in the ole stadium.

But then it doesn't take style into account, for example. Derek Jeter's a right hander. but he's one of the most extreme opposite field hitting player in the game. . thus Jeter gets his share of Yankee stadium specials (12 of 17 HR hit so far this year at home, and looking at hittracker, he has yet to hit a no doubeter this year.)

A few more cases I ponder

A. no power guys in a hitter's park : for example, Juan Pierre put up a .308/.356/.382 line in his two full season at Coors then a .306/.354/.378 line in his 3 full seasons with the Marlins, basically indentical lines dispite changing from the one extreme to another. obviously it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that because Pierre has zippo power anyway. being in Coors does nothing to his game. (of course it also means he can't take advantage of it.) so OPS+ probably sell him short in that aspect.

B. guys who's ability goes against the park.  Let's look at Jason Bay, a dead pull right hander . Fenway's suppose to help your doubles / average but limit your HRs.  Bay's at 25 doubles so far but that is hardly out of his career context in a healthy good year. where as he has 30 HR, just 5 shy of his career high with a month to go. whie his average is significantly lower than career  . so what to make of this ? it doens't seem like Fenway's park effect is working properly with Bay.

This is obviously more of a random pondering than a fully thought out post. but would be something that we could look into . for example. maybe we can use .OPS of lefties + OPS of lefty against at home / home games   divide by OPS of lefties  + OPS of lefty against on the road  / road games  ? and then we could go further and classify players and see how parks effects them (like dead pull / all fields / opposite field / slap hitters

I know that Roy Halladay certainly have a lot of sentimental attatchments for Jays fans. but in the regards of wether they should trade him , and for how much. one need a more realistic approach to the issue.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/ of SB nations had a great series of post over the last month that really puts a ton of insights into these issues.  everyone should really take a look.

 

On trade value calculation

 http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/15/950094/saber-friendly-blogging-101-trade

Trade Value of Halladay

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/16/951321/whats-a-fair-return-in-a-roy

Trade Value of Vernon Wells (poke self in eye)

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/17/952509/whats-the-value-of-a-vernon-wells

draft pick value

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation

On the potential Philly purposals

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/25/962778/phillie-phleecing#comments

 

I think using these , the general conclusion you can draw is that.

A. Roy Halladay has a lot of value but probably not as much as you think

B. Vernon Wells has a lot of value.... in the negative territory,  and probably (A LOT) more than you think.

C. Draft picks are only as valuable as maybe one B prospect.

D. If the Jays decide they can't compete next year trading Roy right now is probably the best idea.

E. Don't overplay on what you think you'll get. Cliff Lee's haul was meh but it wasn't absurdly low. it is basically on the lower end of what you should reasonablly except in a Halladay deal. Some one could go all Bill Bavasi or Brian Sabean on you but that's not what generally happens.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/postseasonodds.php 

While browsing through BP I found this interesting simulation, it was on last year's playoff, based on matchups and homefield advantage. anyway... the results were... interesting.

This was the odds on October 1st, after all teams have made it and before the first game was played of each team actually winning the WS.       

 LAA: 13%   TB: 13%  CHW : 5%  BOS: 19%   CHC: 30%  PHI: 5%  LAD: 5%  MIL: 7%     

Some obvious thoughts.

1. Is there a better proof of god messing with the Cubs? they had the BEST odds of  making the WS and winning it (they had over 50% chance of winning the pennant!!) and they don't make it out of the first round, AGAIN.

2. The AL teams' chances dramatically reduced because they're all pretty good and evenly matched. 

3. The Phillies won on just 5% chance.

4. Everyone had at least 5% chance and no one had more than 30%

This seem to be a rather solid confirmation of the playoff is a crapshoot theory. as even the best odds team only had a 30% shot , and even the worest one have a 5%, this is drastically different than the NBA where the 8th place team NEVER wins.  while the top place finisher are highly likely to advance.

So within the confine of these odds. what is the effect of one player really? we need someone that have a better insight on exactly the methodology used in this calculation, but I'd hazard a guess that even a Bondsian player isn't going to shift the odds THAT dramatically.  

 

So in the light of the Jays offical purposal to the Phillies, and some of the rumors going around (demanding both Hugehes and Chamberlain from the Yanks on top of top prospects, asking for Jered Weaver from the Angels etc.) it really seem to be mind boggling to me that the Jays would be asking in this fashion.

Let's look at the obvious, the Jays are trading Halladay because they can't compete this year and isn't likely to next year (and until Vernon Wells leave really) while teams trading for Halladay are obviously ALL contenders.

So why is JP asking for guys who are already significant contributors. RIGHT NOW to those teams ? this doesn't make any sense. because the reason you want to trade Halladay is most improtantly to upgrade for the remainder of this year. after this year. you can spend the money on FAs. while the vast majority of whom won't give you as much bang or bang for the buck as Halladay. they're still there.

However, by asking for young players who are already helping the team, RIGHT NOW. it really defeats the purpose not only long term. but also short term too.

 

Let's start with the guy who's probably the most useful right now. Jered Weaver. he's on pace to be somewhere between 4-5 WAR this year (and consistently around 3 WAR since he arrived). as oppose to Halladay being around 7 WAR. in a 2 month span, that means Halladay is only a 1-2 win upgrade !! something that luck and other factors could easily change. considering that the Angels are a virtual lock for the playoffs this year anyway and the chances are good going foward too. Any one who trade Jered Weaver strait up for Halladay would already be insane, let alone Weaver + good prospects.

 

 The same holds true for most of the teams that rumors have popped up to involve in, pretty much NYY/BOS/PHI / LAA / LAD are all well secured in their playoff position by now. even Boston have something along the lines of a 75% odds of making the playoff according to BP's PECOTA playoff chances .  getting Halladay doesn't significantly change the factor of making the playoff this year. and almost all those teams would be contenders again next year anyway.

 So that brings up back to J.P Riccardi, I'm baffled by his choices of trade partner AND his asking price approach.  for one. he's mainly talking to team who is hardly desperate to make the playoff right now. and on the other hand, he's asking those teams for young player who are already productive right now. which really defeats the purpose of a short term upgrade. 

By logic, talking to teams like the AL or NL central would make more sense. since they're in a mess right now and Halladay could indeed change the playoff odds significantly.  or even Texas. who would be able to improve their chances enough to seriously challenge the Angels at least next year (though similarly, if I were Texas I'd wait until the off season for this trade anyway) . and since Toronto is building for the future (and that future might be quiet a while away)  wouldn't asking for more prospects instead of more young players now make a whole lot more sense both in terms of actually getting the deal done, and for the benifit of Toronto's future?  while one might argue that prospect's far from a sure thing, for the Jays to contend they MUST have a crazy good young core. and you do that by trading for prospects and gamble on more high upsides guys than by taking the likes of J.A Haap.

 The way Toronto is approaching this really just make me feel that Riccardi is looking at his job security first rather than the well being of the organization going foward.

 

During the Halladay discussions one of the obvious point that was brought up is how much. or if at all Doc Halladay improves a teams' chances once in the playoff.  one of the studies that was meantioned of wanting to get to is the division series.

 

So I decided to take a quick and dirty look at the division series, since it's not exactly a huge sample. I'm going to quickly see wether.

 

1. the team with the better regular season winning % had a better chance of winning and how much so

2. wether the team with the better team ERA had a higher winning % and how much so . since the whole "pitching wins playoff" is getting towards mythical status.

So the answer, since 1995, in the division series

Teams with better winning % won : 25 times

Teams with worse winning % won :  29 times!

Teams had same winning % : 2 times

 

Teams with better team ERA won : 34 times

Teams with worse team ERA won : 21 times

Team had same ERA down to triple digit decimal : 1 time.

 

So.  while the sample size is questionable. the basic conclusion we might draw is.

 

A. winning percentage does nothing. teams with better winning percentage have no better chance of winning than tams with worse.

 

B. Team ERA have a positive correlation with winning the division series. but the correlation is far from abosalute.  teams with better team ERA won about 63 % of the time.

 

There was a post a few days back on MLBers suddenly sucking or owning, I think they missed a few though.

 

Ben Zobrist : Ladys and Gentlemn, meet your most valuable 2B in the major league so far, mr Chase... Ut... errr what? Ben Zobrist?  the two are virtually tied neck and neck .  Zobrist was always a guy that looked like a solid but not spetacular prospect. but for some reason he's being possesed by the spirit of Roger Hornsby so far this year. in a division that has Pedroia / Cano / Hill / Roberts. I don't think anyone picked Ben Zobrist to be heads and shoulder above the rest of the division .

Jason Bartlett :  So a year after we laughed at the Rays writer picking Jason Bartlett for being team MVP, he's stuffing a big cup of STFU down our throat. he is so far just as valuable as Derek Jeter .  and this is NOT because Derek Jeter's declining,  if Jeter finish the season on this pace he will probably pass his 2006 WAR total, when he was robbed of a MVP.

Marco Scutaro :  But wait, there is ANOTHER SS in the ALE that's also just as valuable as Jeter and Bartlett, it's Nomar.. errr wait, it's Alex Rod.. errr no,  it's Marco Scutaro???? the career utility guy  is already posing half a win more than his career best season in just half a season, at age 34. what in the world????

So Hughes' subbing for Wang against the Tigers who's trying to figure out wether he have YIPs, HIPS or mechanical issue or all of them.... anyway.

 

6IP 0R 2H (both singles) 1 walk 1 HBP 6K

Unless Detroit somehow mounds a 10 run come back he's probably in line for the win.

 

Game Day had him at mostly 92 on the FB but a lot of 93 94 in the early going. 

 

I guess most prospect watchers and Yankee fans (and most of all Brian Cashman) probably breath a little sigh of relieve after this outting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

via twbsball.dils.tku.edu.tw

according to sources in Taiwan, the Tigers have signed LHP Fu-De Ni to a minor league contract. Ni will be guranteed to start in AAA.

Ni's becomes the first Taiwanese player to sign with an MLB club after playing professionally in Taiwan's CPBL.

Ni was last season's CPBL strikeout king, and has been one of it's top pitcher in the last couple of seasons. he was mostly a starter last year, but also served as a swingman earlier . he's 26 years old.

Ni's not exactly overpowering, but does appear to profile nicely as a lefty RP that might be able to get righties out as well. he's been one of the top pitcher for Taiwan's national teams during international competitions such as the Olympics.

some youtubes of Ni's past performances.

(Ni vs team canada in the Olympics qualifier wildcard round)

http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=966cDP4trsk

(Ni 's 13 K 0 BB 8.1 IP outting in the CPBL, interview until around 0.40)

http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=AR-LTzhsEZg

 

Not exactly a mega rumor but interesting ...

http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/081215/78/1b6ni.html (it's in Chinese)

anyway, the rumor here is that the M's are offering to sign Fu-De Ni to a minor league deal for roughly 150,000 bucks, Ni would be the first player to cross over to the states AFTER playing pro baseball in Taiwan. (all the other current guys in the majors / minors signed before they ever played pro ball in Taiwan)

via l.yimg.com

Ni is (obviously shown in the picture) a lefty pitcher, he's been a swingman most of his time in Taiwan (that happens quiet a bit more than it does in the states though.) this year he started most of the time. he's listed at 183 cm (roughly 6.0 to 6'1) and 78 kg.  with a record of 145.1 IP 3.34 ERA and a pretty impresive 132/32 K/BB ratio (132 lead the league by 22)

Having seen him pitch, he's sort of a lefty sidearmer in the high 80s low 90s. in the majors I'm guessing he would profile as a LOOGY most of the time , though he wasn't all that effective vs lefty in Taiwan (but it was mostly singles. the underlying preriphals were very good,)

One of the main reason that Ni is considering the move is that his team, the China Trust banking Whales, dissolved not too long ago, for a variety of reasons (game fixing scandals, bad economy, the CPBL not overly popular in general) so quiet a few players are on the move recently, Ni, being a lefty pitcher that's actually pretty decent and is still relatively young (1982/11/14), has the best shot of making the jump to the majors amoung the unemployed

http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=966cDP4trsk&feature=related

this is Ni, destroying some Canadian lefties in the Olympics qualifier round.

I'm not sure how he translate to the majors. but there's at least a reasonable chance that he's a servicable lefty out of the pen

 

In what is turning out to be one of the most interesting offseason in awhile the Brewers and Yankees apparently made another move by swaping their CF

It's a odd move fore either side I think, for the Brewers, your trading a good player for a guy that's not very good but still young enough and shown some spark at times that might give you hope, but i guess at worse they clear salary for whatever they want. for the Yankees it seems that while CF was a problem there was no real long term solution out there (and this is not either) and this move might prevent you from getting a long term solution in one of the other area of need (first base)

 

Both team get seomthing, but neither seem to have gotten what they really really needed

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2008/12/10/2008-12-10_pitcher_cc_sabathia_agrees_to_7year_160_.html 

Not completely confirmed, but seem like CC has agreed to 7/160 with the Yankees, the largest contract ever for pitchers

Well it's a risky gamble with a good upside, I guess there wasn't a whole lot of choice for the Yankees.

to demonstrate CC's upside and risk, one need to look no further than his similar age comparables on BR.

1. Dave McNally (939)
2. Greg Maddux (934)
3. Ken Holtzman (931)
4. Denny McLain (931)
5. Dennis Eckersley (931) *
6. Alex Fernandez (917)
7. Lefty Gomez (917) *
8. Milt Pappas (916)
9. Carlos Zambrano (914)
10. Steve Carlton (914) *

it's about as mixed as it gets, with possible outcome to either extremes (and i mean extreme!)

This is something I've been thinking, because the term "average DH" get's thrown around a lot , but the more I think about it, I realize there's a serious problem with that number .

I'll explain it in a very simple matter, below was the AL teams in 08 and their leader in DH games played last year.

ALE

TB:  Floyd, 72

BOS: Ortiz,  108

NYY: Matsui: 66

TOR:  Stairs 77

BAL:  Huff: 108

ALC

CHW: Thome 139

Min:  Kubel 77

CLE:  Hafner 54

KC:  Butler 82

DET:  Sheffield 106

ALW

LAA:  Anderson 59

Tex : Bradley 99

OAK: Thomas 59

SEA:  Vidro 69

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The # is pretty obvious, there was only 3 teams that had guys with more than 100 games started at DH, (ok 4 if you count 99 game Bradley) and even then only Thome went signficantly over that mark. so yeah, last year in the AL, there was about *1* team out of 14 that had a true full time DH all season.

So what's the point? obviously where the other DH times go, it doesn't take a genius to realize that most AL team rotate their better players in the DH slot .

The problem? this "average DH" is in fact mostly # by guys who play most of their time in other positions, and while they're DHing, the guy who's taking their spot on the field tend to suck with the bat.  that's what we're overlooking.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080925&content_id=1455905&oid=36019&vkey=6

Let's just use the Yankees as a example, Steve Goldman noted that the Yankees DH was pretty decent last year at  282/.378/.461 , but Mr. Goldman miss the point, while Posada's DHing, Jose Molina is giving away automatic outs, while Jason Giambi is DHing, Wilson Betemit is sucking in the field, while Johnny Damon DHs, then usually it's something along the lines of Justin Christian or Brett Gardner.

This is my point, unless your team has a true full time DH like Jim Thome, then your "DH" isn't really "The DH" so to speak, but the bench guy that's inserted into the lineup in place of the regular that's DHing for the day. (unless of course, your using your bench guy as the DH like the Mariners . )

This sort of number would be really hard to compile , since we need to indentify who's actually replacing who, but if someone do compile such numbers, I highly suspect the "average DH" will look at lot more like "the average catcher" then "the average first baseman"

 

• Harold Baines
• Jay Bell
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Ron Gant
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Jesse Orosco
• Dave Parker
• Dan Plesac
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

Here we go again, let's see how many idiots vote for Dan Plesac this year?

Ricky is a obvious no-brainer, Big-Mac would be too if wasn't for that which shall not be named.

Amoung others, Raines / Blyleven should be in but would likely take awhile.

Jim Rice will get in... is there really that much of a difference between him and Parker / Murphy / Baines / Vaugh ? hell I'd take TJ / Smith / Trammell if Rice is in.

 

 

Just a thought, but with the M's unlikely to be good in the next couple of years, why should they hold on to Kenji Johjima and his 3/24 contract? instead of playing Jeff Clement there?

I mean Johjima was hit by bad luck this year so there is the problem of his trade value, but even then, him blocking Clement is almost as bad. while he's likely a better short term player than Clement . by the time the M's are ready to contend again he's probably not there anymore.

There's a few team that's pretty darn desperate for a catcher, the new M's FO would do well to try and fleece someone with Johjima. Boston? Detroit? either NY team?

I'm looking at the recent PMR posts, and comparing them with PMRs from last year, and what really struck me was how inconsistent players seem to be from year to year.

There are even cases where someone goes from really bad to pretty good (Hanely) or vice vera (Coco Crisp) and some known long time attrocities (Mr. Jeter) were able to make remarkable recovery in his mid 30s.  and while there seem to be some consistency, as a whole it just seem to flucate pretty wildly.

so while I agree that defense is the one area where some teams are really holding a edge over others, the question begs that how consistent are these results and what should we really make of it?  while obviously  a known good glove like Mark Teixiera would surely out perform the statue of Jason Giambi in any given year. on a more general bases, is it truely a good idea to base signings and trades heavily on defense?

 

 

A lot of buzz have been going around on the Blue Jays possibbly taking over the East this year. many "experts" took them over the Yankees, and quiet frankly. that's just an absurd prediction based on not facts and logics, but bias and false hopes.

Here's the reasons why the Jays will most likely be once again, a good but not great also ran in the East.

1. HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH: the Jays have been sunk badly over the last few years by health reasons. particularly last year, when their healthiest vet was Frank Thomas, a man who was almost finished by injury just two years earlier. beside Thomas / Hill and Rios and to a lesser extend McDonald, their entire lineup was basically struck down by injury.

Reed Johnson: major back injury, killed performance and now possibily career

Vernon Wells: major shoulder injury that completely killed his performance

Lyle Overbay: suffered a HBP on hand that ended up having surgery on. # took big hit after injury

Gregg Zuan: took pitch off hand. similar to Overbay.

Troy Glaus: foot issues.

So what do they do this winter? add in David Eckstein and Scott Rolen. for those of you who don't see the obvious irony of this ...

games played in 05/06/07

Eckstien (aka the god of grit and scrap!) : 158/123/117

Rolen: 56/141/112

it doesn't exactly take a scientist to figure out that neither of these guys have been anywhere near a picture of health over the last 3 season. Rolen's injuries have been espically serious. and both are on the downside of their career.

many of the injuries suffered on their player last year were pretty serious. it's not your typical hamstring pull or bad bruise . Well's shoulder injury was espically worrisome. and Overbay / Zuan's wrist operation could drain their power for a period of time. Johnson's back operation was clearly the most serious and we all know how that turned out. (he was flat out released)

the pitching side is hardly a much better picture, AJ Burnett is a obvious known suspect, and Dustin McGowan, the young pitcher they're counting on to be their #3 this year, had TJ in 05 and saw a huge inning jump from last year, their closer is still on the shelf and they already lost Casey Janssen for the year.

of their main players. only Rios / Hill hasn't a. been seriously injured sometime in the last 2 to 3 year. or b. really old. which brings us to the next point.

2. age: remember how the Yankees lineup is due for major regression (supposedly ) because of age? guess how many players on the Blue Jays lineup would be older than the entire Yankee roster? none? nope, 2. Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs are both older than the oldest Yankee player (Jason Giambi and Mariano Rivera, Gregg Zuan is just 3 month younger than Jason) . they have exactly 3 guys under 30 in their lineup on most nights, Wells (29) Rios (27) and Hill (26). that's hardly the fountain of youth there. Gregg Zuan is actually older than Jorge Posada. and guess what, their starting 9 is actually OLDER than the Yankee starting 9 on average.

3. stats just doesn't add up. last year they had brilliant pitching and mediocare hitting. the pitching is unlikely to get better. particularly in the bullpen. it's a simple logic that guys like Downs and to a lessor extend Accordo will repeat their 200 ERA+ seasons from last year, and they already lost Janssen, the SP side may be a bit trickier. as Burnett / McGowan have the potential to be awsome . but Marcum and Litch's soft tossing ways are unlikely to be very sustainable, particularly Litch, who had a non-existent K-rate last year. and he's GB rate is only good but not awsome good. the Hitting may or may not improve. though it's hard to see Rolen being much of a upgrade given his health. while Eckstien is a likely upgrade with the bat (only because McDonald's non-existent offensive game) but he'll cough some back on defense. Matt Stairs have no hope of comming anywhere near last year's # (where he basically out hit Manny Rameriez) . though with potential improvements to Rios / Hill and a bounce back on Wells / Overbay it could happen. but unless they immediately goes back to his 2006 form that offense upgrade would be minimal at best.

barring a huge disastor. it's hard to see the Yankee / Bo-Sox run-differential change significantly from last year. where they were 97 / 101 pythag win teams respectively. to demostrate that that means. the Red Sox scored 210 more runs than they gave up last year, the Jays only a bit over 60, it doesn't take anyone with a brain to understand that the larger the difference the more likely your to do well . even with the Yankees playing horriblly in close games last year they were still only 3 games under their pythag. the Jays have a massive holes to close. and it's very unlikely that they do it.

They're off to a good start, and obviously anything CAN happen (well except maybe the Giants not finishing last and setting some records of low scoring this year) but the chances are just seriously against them. the people who are picking the Jays to finish 1st or 2nd in the East are most likely ignoring a little common math logic here. the only way it happens is if one of the Yanks / Red Sox collapses VERY badly (worse than the 07 Yanks, like the 06 Bo Sox when Becektt forgot how to pitch and Jason Varitek went down .) AND the Jays getting career years from someone (ala 06 Wells / Overbay) even then, the chances of them in the playoff is pretty slim. the current baseball division configuration has hurt them more than any team in the sports.

 

 

 

I like John's True or False segments. so lets do another one of these...

True or False: the Tiger's trades over the winter will NOT be enough to give them the best offense in the Majors. the Yankees will still outscore them.

 

 

seems like he'll make the Yankee bullpen.

an interesitng guy. he's 29. he's one of the few guys the Yankees plucked out of Indy ball over the last few year (they actually have 3 such players in ST. he , Edwar Ramirez and Justin Christian )

he's been putting up video game numbers not unlike Edwar Ramirez. he does it with a violent over the top deleviry from his 6'7 frame and long arm. coupled with a solid curve from the same angle maeks it quiet devastating despite only hovering in the low 90s.

with the way Giradi is using him (basically inserting him whenever they're a jam and the SP reached his pitch count) and that he's gotten out of everything so far. (only 1 base runner via single so far in 6 inning with 5 K) seems like he's a strong front runner for a spot.

it be a interesting feel good story to watch . if he and / or Edwar Ramriez manage to contribute this year.

it's interesting cause it seems that the 3 remaining spots on the Yankee pen. 1 will go to a ex-indy ball player . the other will go to a NRI (Billy Traber) . the Yankees aren't even the Yankees anymore heh. you'd think they be the one knocking Dotel / Linebrink out cold with a block of money.

ST# don't mean much and all. but Zito's line so far must be truely worrisome.

14.92 ERA, 14.2IP 21H 0K(!!) 10BB 4HR. it's not just 1 bad outting, try 3 out of 4. the comical K/BB ratio really raise an eyebrow. and there's really just nothing good you can take out from any of this.

he's periphals been going the wrong way for a looooong time now. but this is truely scary.

Anyone that's been watching give us a clue on what's happening here? trying out stuff is one thing. but something's really wrong when you manage to strike out no one after going through so many batters in 14 IP .

http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

biggest surpise (or maybe not quiet) is the system has the M's finishing... LAST in their division.

the Yankee pitching does surprisingly well, and the White Sox pitching will look very ugly.

the rankings

ALE

Yanks
RS
Jays
Rays
Os

ALC

Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Royals

ALW

Angels
A's ( o_O)
Rangers
M's

NLE
Mets
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Nationals

NLC
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros (heh)
Cardinals (ouch)
Pirates (tie consescutive losing season record)

NLW
D-backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Giants

started over at MVN is drawing plenty of responses across the net. so might as well start here.

http://tinyurl.com/2td26v

It's a pretty silly apples and orange debate as we're pretty positve that Cano could stay at 2B while Upton probably will never be back in the middle infield. they suit their teams perfectly as the Yankees have more trouble finding good players in scarce positions while the Rays simply need good players period .

Still though , seperating the comparason would be interesting, what do people really see in those two going foward?

Cano has essentially blown away all expectations in a way that only Albert Pujols probably surpases , I'm pretty sure Dave Cameron over at USS Mariners still cringe about that .280/.320/.400 player with terrible D in his prime comment in early 05. but it wasn't exactly unfounded at that point. still...

with essentially 3 pretty stable seasons under his belt Cano seems pretty easy to project, people laughed their arse off at the Rod Carew comp by Torre back in 05 but that seems very realistic right now. he's like Carew without the speed but more power.

River Ave Blues did a good search a few days back on Cano. essentially putting him up against all 2Bs in MLB history at the same age stage in terms of OPS+. and Cano is in the very very top echolon.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/jzHQ

Looking at this is pretty shocking, as Cano has essentially destroyed all non - Morgan / Carew / Baerga post war players. he actually has more hits / HR than both Morgan and Carew at the same stage (in less game too!) and just about everyone else for that matter save two guys... Baerga and Alomar.. Alomar mostly because he played more game.

the obvious sticking point in all this is Carlos Baerga, who just bombed after the age of 27. Roberto Alomar also declined sooner than expected. which seem to be the biggest worry right now. but still, on the list the 5 players above him only one player isn't in the hall, and he probably should be (Larry Doyle, a guy the vet committe probably missed ) of the guys blow him. it's still loaded with HOFer or should be HOFers ( Molitor , Sandberg, Frisch, Doerr, Alomar, Herman , Rose , ... yes he's hitting rate is better than PETE ROSE at the same stage)

It seems that if Cano can keep it together. he's  on track to cooperstown even at this stage!

BJ Upton is a harder case. talent wise (hitting anyway ) he's obviously above Cano, but not being sure of where he's going to stick on the diamond and that he's only had one very good season so far makes it hard to project. in terms of skillset he reminds me of Curtis Granderson (but then, that's essentially the text book toolsy black CF :P) he's better than Granderson.. but I can't see him taking to the next level of toolsy CF with awsome skillz... IE Ken Griffey Jr / Willie Mays ... or even Gary Sheffield (which is a good comp considering the position moves)... the difference is that those guys almost never whiffs. they were scary beyond all belive.. they were... errr what people thought Jim Rice was. :P

I'm having a hard time finding a reasonable comp for BJ Upton right now he's going to whiff. he might improve it but I don't thikn anyone would belive that he can take it to the Griffey / Mays / Sheffield level . maybe he could be Grady Sizemore? thats the problem though, these type seem to be a new breed of players. it's hard to find a reasonable comp in the past. Granderson .. Sizemore.. these guys are going to whiff, but they're also going to get on base hit for power and steal.

Anyone have a good idea ? finding a good comp for that type of hitter in the past?

The White Sox's moves so far....

1.Trade Garland for Cabrera
2.Trade lots of prospect for Swisher
3.Sign Linebrink

This look like moves of a borderline contender hoping to go over the top.

This was a list of team that had a worse Pythag record than the White Sox last year...

Oh wait... it's not a list...

Worest Pythag in 07

1. Tampa 67-95
   
2. White Sox 67 - 95 <----------

Yes, they were the second worest pythag team.... and i'm not just talking about the AL here. they were 29th out of 30 teams!!!!

They need HUGE improvements from SEVERAL spots to have any sort of a turnaround. frankly these 3 moves simply aren't nearly enough to even put them into the wildcard talk barring a absalute perfect storm. let alone having a serious shot at the division.

Francisco Cervelli is a catcher in the Yankee org that John ranked as C+ in this year's Yankee top 20. with a note citing good glove but wonder about his bat.

I would wonder though. Cervelli hasn't exactly set the world on fire with the stick over the last couple of season. but he has put up the following lines in 06 and 07.

6. 309 /.397 /.426 (136 AB in A- Stanton Island)
   
7. 279 /.387 /.397 (290 AB in A+ Tampa)

considering the league /park context (Both were rather pitching oriented) and the age context (20 in 06 21 in 07) and the positional context (catcher) that seemed decent enough. both parks are not favorable to bombs which is really his only real problem right now. but he's shown a pretty serious potential to be a average / OBP guy already. for a catcher that can field / hit for average / pretty good eye be pretty good?

he does have the advantage of plenty of doubles going for him too, over the last two year he's hit 34 doubles and 2 triples. that's certainly a decent room to grow on.

I'm not sure, he seems like a guy that should probably make a good backup with the pontial of going one step further. would he be a B- be a little more sensible?

just a self thought post i guess. he's a guy that's really catch my eye in the Yankee org. what are other's thought about this guy?

Top of the 9th... so far...

Tucson 17 25 0
Vegas  12 19 1

YIKES, a lot of offense...  very bad night to be a pitcher for eithe team.

Delwyn Young continue to swing the big stick, Hu also keep hitting. the journeymen crew of Vegas smashing the ball, Carlos Qunetin 2 double.. everyone on BOTH team that started has at least 1 hit

now bottom of the 9th.. top of the order for Vegas

I tend to find BP's fielding rate to be a fairly good assement of a guy's fielding ability, but the one guy that has really struck out on me is Derek Jeter.

While BP agree that for his career he has been downright dreadful, (averaging almost -10 RAA per season, including 4 strait year of -20 from 2000 to 2003) over the last few years though...

3. 82
   
4. 97
   
5. 107
   
6. 105
   
7. 105

while clearly not gold glove worthy (thats a serious joke) BP suggest that he has actually been slightly above average since 05... is this something wrong with their metrics? or is something actually happening here? he still seem to have 0 range up the middle though, or is it that he's actually surroned by above average fielders in A-rod and Cano instead of the horror that was the 03 Yankee Infield (Ventura / Jeter / Soriano /Giambi.. yikes ) been a reason?