Now, most of us who browse through these sites are certainly well aware with park factors and use them extensively in any baseball analysis, but I have some aspect of how it is done have bothered me for awhile now.

Namely, that most of the time we just have a flat number to multiply our raw OPS by. and we might look into how it inflates HR/Hits / doubles ... but..

1. it doesn't really take handedness into account

2. it doesn't take style into account.

Let's use the example of Yankee stadium , everyone knows that it has a short right field while the rest of the dimension tend to be normal (and use to be huge). thus, through the history of the Yankees they also loved them left handed sluggers. since they can just hit a modestly well lifted fly ball and it go out.  by this logic the park factors should be much higher for lefties. Joe DiMMagio hitting .900 in the ole stadium is not the same as a lefty hitting .900 in the ole stadium.

But then it doesn't take style into account, for example. Derek Jeter's a right hander. but he's one of the most extreme opposite field hitting player in the game. . thus Jeter gets his share of Yankee stadium specials (12 of 17 HR hit so far this year at home, and looking at hittracker, he has yet to hit a no doubeter this year.)

A few more cases I ponder

A. no power guys in a hitter's park : for example, Juan Pierre put up a .308/.356/.382 line in his two full season at Coors then a .306/.354/.378 line in his 3 full seasons with the Marlins, basically indentical lines dispite changing from the one extreme to another. obviously it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that because Pierre has zippo power anyway. being in Coors does nothing to his game. (of course it also means he can't take advantage of it.) so OPS+ probably sell him short in that aspect.

B. guys who's ability goes against the park.  Let's look at Jason Bay, a dead pull right hander . Fenway's suppose to help your doubles / average but limit your HRs.  Bay's at 25 doubles so far but that is hardly out of his career context in a healthy good year. where as he has 30 HR, just 5 shy of his career high with a month to go. whie his average is significantly lower than career  . so what to make of this ? it doens't seem like Fenway's park effect is working properly with Bay.

This is obviously more of a random pondering than a fully thought out post. but would be something that we could look into . for example. maybe we can use .OPS of lefties + OPS of lefty against at home / home games   divide by OPS of lefties  + OPS of lefty against on the road  / road games  ? and then we could go further and classify players and see how parks effects them (like dead pull / all fields / opposite field / slap hitters

I know that Roy Halladay certainly have a lot of sentimental attatchments for Jays fans. but in the regards of wether they should trade him , and for how much. one need a more realistic approach to the issue.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/ of SB nations had a great series of post over the last month that really puts a ton of insights into these issues.  everyone should really take a look.

On trade value calculation

 http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/15/950094/saber-friendly-blogging-101-trade

Trade Value of Halladay

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/16/951321/whats-a-fair-return-in-a-roy

Trade Value of Vernon Wells (poke self in eye)

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/17/952509/whats-the-value-of-a-vernon-wells

draft pick value

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation

On the potential Philly purposals

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/25/962778/phillie-phleecing#comments

I think using these , the general conclusion you can draw is that.

A. Roy Halladay has a lot of value but probably not as much as you think

B. Vernon Wells has a lot of value.... in the negative territory,  and probably (A LOT) more than you think.

C. Draft picks are only as valuable as maybe one B prospect.

D. If the Jays decide they can't compete next year trading Roy right now is probably the best idea.

E. Don't overplay on what you think you'll get. Cliff Lee's haul was meh but it wasn't absurdly low. it is basically on the lower end of what you should reasonablly except in a Halladay deal. Some one could go all Bill Bavasi or Brian Sabean on you but that's not what generally happens.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/postseasonodds.php 

While browsing through BP I found this interesting simulation, it was on last year's playoff, based on matchups and homefield advantage. anyway... the results were... interesting.

This was the odds on October 1st, after all teams have made it and before the first game was played of each team actually winning the WS.       

 LAA: 13%   TB: 13%  CHW : 5%  BOS: 19%   CHC: 30%  PHI: 5%  LAD: 5%  MIL: 7%     

Some obvious thoughts.

1. Is there a better proof of god messing with the Cubs? they had the BEST odds of  making the WS and winning it (they had over 50% chance of winning the pennant!!) and they don't make it out of the first round, AGAIN.

2. The AL teams' chances dramatically reduced because they're all pretty good and evenly matched. 

3. The Phillies won on just 5% chance.

4. Everyone had at least 5% chance and no one had more than 30%

This seem to be a rather solid confirmation of the playoff is a crapshoot theory. as even the best odds team only had a 30% shot , and even the worest one have a 5%, this is drastically different than the NBA where the 8th place team NEVER wins.  while the top place finisher are highly likely to advance.

So within the confine of these odds. what is the effect of one player really? we need someone that have a better insight on exactly the methodology used in this calculation, but I'd hazard a guess that even a Bondsian player isn't going to shift the odds THAT dramatically.  

So in the light of the Jays offical purposal to the Phillies, and some of the rumors going around (demanding both Hugehes and Chamberlain from the Yanks on top of top prospects, asking for Jered Weaver from the Angels etc.) it really seem to be mind boggling to me that the Jays would be asking in this fashion.

Let's look at the obvious, the Jays are trading Halladay because they can't compete this year and isn't likely to next year (and until Vernon Wells leave really) while teams trading for Halladay are obviously ALL contenders.

So why is JP asking for guys who are already significant contributors. RIGHT NOW to those teams ? this doesn't make any sense. because the reason you want to trade Halladay is most improtantly to upgrade for the remainder of this year. after this year. you can spend the money on FAs. while the vast majority of whom won't give you as much bang or bang for the buck as Halladay. they're still there.

However, by asking for young players who are already helping the team, RIGHT NOW. it really defeats the purpose not only long term. but also short term too.

Let's start with the guy who's probably the most useful right now. Jered Weaver. he's on pace to be somewhere between 4-5 WAR this year (and consistently around 3 WAR since he arrived). as oppose to Halladay being around 7 WAR. in a 2 month span, that means Halladay is only a 1-2 win upgrade !! something that luck and other factors could easily change. considering that the Angels are a virtual lock for the playoffs this year anyway and the chances are good going foward too. Any one who trade Jered Weaver strait up for Halladay would already be insane, let alone Weaver + good prospects.

 The same holds true for most of the teams that rumors have popped up to involve in, pretty much NYY/BOS/PHI / LAA / LAD are all well secured in their playoff position by now. even Boston have something along the lines of a 75% odds of making the playoff according to BP's PECOTA playoff chances .  getting Halladay doesn't significantly change the factor of making the playoff this year. and almost all those teams would be contenders again next year anyway.

 So that brings up back to J.P Riccardi, I'm baffled by his choices of trade partner AND his asking price approach.  for one. he's mainly talking to team who is hardly desperate to make the playoff right now. and on the other hand, he's asking those teams for young player who are already productive right now. which really defeats the purpose of a short term upgrade. 

By logic, talking to teams like the AL or NL central would make more sense. since they're in a mess right now and Halladay could indeed change the playoff odds significantly.  or even Texas. who would be able to improve their chances enough to seriously challenge the Angels at least next year (though similarly, if I were Texas I'd wait until the off season for this trade anyway) . and since Toronto is building for the future (and that future might be quiet a while away)  wouldn't asking for more prospects instead of more young players now make a whole lot more sense both in terms of actually getting the deal done, and for the benifit of Toronto's future?  while one might argue that prospect's far from a sure thing, for the Jays to contend they MUST have a crazy good young core. and you do that by trading for prospects and gamble on more high upsides guys than by taking the likes of J.A Haap.

 The way Toronto is approaching this really just make me feel that Riccardi is looking at his job security first rather than the well being of the organization going foward.

During the Halladay discussions one of the obvious point that was brought up is how much. or if at all Doc Halladay improves a teams' chances once in the playoff.  one of the studies that was meantioned of wanting to get to is the division series.

So I decided to take a quick and dirty look at the division series, since it's not exactly a huge sample. I'm going to quickly see wether.

1. the team with the better regular season winning % had a better chance of winning and how much so

2. wether the team with the better team ERA had a higher winning % and how much so . since the whole "pitching wins playoff" is getting towards mythical status.

So the answer, since 1995, in the division series

Teams with better winning % won : 25 times

Teams with worse winning % won :  29 times!

Teams had same winning % : 2 times

Teams with better team ERA won : 34 times

Teams with worse team ERA won : 21 times

Team had same ERA down to triple digit decimal : 1 time.

So.  while the sample size is questionable. the basic conclusion we might draw is.

A. winning percentage does nothing. teams with better winning percentage have no better chance of winning than tams with worse.

B. Team ERA have a positive correlation with winning the division series. but the correlation is far from abosalute.  teams with better team ERA won about 63 % of the time.

There was a post a few days back on MLBers suddenly sucking or owning, I think they missed a few though.

Ben Zobrist : Ladys and Gentlemn, meet your most valuable 2B in the major league so far, mr Chase... Ut... errr what? Ben Zobrist?  the two are virtually tied neck and neck .  Zobrist was always a guy that looked like a solid but not spetacular prospect. but for some reason he's being possesed by the spirit of Roger Hornsby so far this year. in a division that has Pedroia / Cano / Hill / Roberts. I don't think anyone picked Ben Zobrist to be heads and shoulder above the rest of the division .

Jason Bartlett :  So a year after we laughed at the Rays writer picking Jason Bartlett for being team MVP, he's stuffing a big cup of STFU down our throat. he is so far just as valuable as Derek Jeter .  and this is NOT because Derek Jeter's declining,  if Jeter finish the season on this pace he will probably pass his 2006 WAR total, when he was robbed of a MVP.

Marco Scutaro :  But wait, there is ANOTHER SS in the ALE that's also just as valuable as Jeter and Bartlett, it's Nomar.. errr wait, it's Alex Rod.. errr no,  it's Marco Scutaro???? the career utility guy  is already posing half a win more than his career best season in just half a season, at age 34. what in the world????

So Hughes' subbing for Wang against the Tigers who's trying to figure out wether he have YIPs, HIPS or mechanical issue or all of them.... anyway.

6IP 0R 2H (both singles) 1 walk 1 HBP 6K

Unless Detroit somehow mounds a 10 run come back he's probably in line for the win.

Game Day had him at mostly 92 on the FB but a lot of 93 94 in the early going. 

I guess most prospect watchers and Yankee fans (and most of all Brian Cashman) probably breath a little sigh of relieve after this outting.

   Now that he's offically retired, doing a mechanics retro on Curt would be nice, he should probably be a text book example of how RHP should pitch.

    His career is interesting.. he was drafted fairly late , his lines in the minors were just decent, with no real flash of what he ended up doing in the majors. his early major career seem to have " career journey man" spelled all over it until he reached Philly...

via twbsball.dils.tku.edu.tw

according to sources in Taiwan, the Tigers have signed LHP Fu-De Ni to a minor league contract. Ni will be guranteed to start in AAA.

Ni's becomes the first Taiwanese player to sign with an MLB club after playing professionally in Taiwan's CPBL.

Ni was last season's CPBL strikeout king, and has been one of it's top pitcher in the last couple of seasons. he was mostly a starter last year, but also served as a swingman earlier . he's 26 years old.

Ni's not exactly overpowering, but does appear to profile nicely as a lefty RP that might be able to get righties out as well. he's been one of the top pitcher for Taiwan's national teams during international competitions such as the Olympics.

some youtubes of Ni's past performances.

(Ni vs team canada in the Olympics qualifier wildcard round)

http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=966cDP4trsk

(Ni 's 13 K 0 BB 8.1 IP outting in the CPBL, interview until around 0.40)

http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=AR-LTzhsEZg

Not exactly a mega rumor but interesting ...

http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/081215/78/1b6ni.html (it's in Chinese)

anyway, the rumor here is that the M's are offering to sign Fu-De Ni to a minor league deal for roughly 150,000 bucks, Ni would be the first player to cross over to the states AFTER playing pro baseball in Taiwan. (all the other current guys in the majors / minors signed before they ever played pro ball in Taiwan)

via l.yimg.com

Ni is (obviously shown in the picture) a lefty pitcher, he's been a swingman most of his time in Taiwan (that happens quiet a bit more than it does in the states though.) this year he started most of the time. he's listed at 183 cm (roughly 6.0 to 6'1) and 78 kg.  with a record of 145.1 IP 3.34 ERA and a pretty impresive 132/32 K/BB ratio (132 lead the league by 22)

Having seen him pitch, he's sort of a lefty sidearmer in the high 80s low 90s. in the majors I'm guessing he would profile as a LOOGY most of the time , though he wasn't all that effective vs lefty in Taiwan (but it was mostly singles. the underlying preriphals were very good,)

One of the main reason that Ni is considering the move is that his team, the China Trust banking Whales, dissolved not too long ago, for a variety of reasons (game fixing scandals, bad economy, the CPBL not overly popular in general) so quiet a few players are on the move recently, Ni, being a lefty pitcher that's actually pretty decent and is still relatively young (1982/11/14), has the best shot of making the jump to the majors amoung the unemployed

http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=966cDP4trsk&feature=related

this is Ni, destroying some Canadian lefties in the Olympics qualifier round.

I'm not sure how he translate to the majors. but there's at least a reasonable chance that he's a servicable lefty out of the pen