In what is turning out to be one of the most interesting offseason in awhile the Brewers and Yankees apparently made another move by swaping their CF

It's a odd move fore either side I think, for the Brewers, your trading a good player for a guy that's not very good but still young enough and shown some spark at times that might give you hope, but i guess at worse they clear salary for whatever they want. for the Yankees it seems that while CF was a problem there was no real long term solution out there (and this is not either) and this move might prevent you from getting a long term solution in one of the other area of need (first base)

Both team get seomthing, but neither seem to have gotten what they really really needed

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2008/12/10/2008-12-10_pitcher_cc_sabathia_agrees_to_7year_160_.html 

Not completely confirmed, but seem like CC has agreed to 7/160 with the Yankees, the largest contract ever for pitchers

Well it's a risky gamble with a good upside, I guess there wasn't a whole lot of choice for the Yankees.

to demonstrate CC's upside and risk, one need to look no further than his similar age comparables on BR.

1. Dave McNally (939)
2. Greg Maddux (934)
3. Ken Holtzman (931)
4. Denny McLain (931)
5. Dennis Eckersley (931) *
6. Alex Fernandez (917)
7. Lefty Gomez (917) *
8. Milt Pappas (916)
9. Carlos Zambrano (914)
10. Steve Carlton (914) *

it's about as mixed as it gets, with possible outcome to either extremes (and i mean extreme!)

This is something I've been thinking, because the term "average DH" get's thrown around a lot , but the more I think about it, I realize there's a serious problem with that number .

I'll explain it in a very simple matter, below was the AL teams in 08 and their leader in DH games played last year.

ALE

TB:  Floyd, 72

BOS: Ortiz,  108

NYY: Matsui: 66

TOR:  Stairs 77

BAL:  Huff: 108

ALC

CHW: Thome 139

Min:  Kubel 77

CLE:  Hafner 54

KC:  Butler 82

DET:  Sheffield 106

ALW

LAA:  Anderson 59

Tex : Bradley 99

OAK: Thomas 59

SEA:  Vidro 69

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The # is pretty obvious, there was only 3 teams that had guys with more than 100 games started at DH, (ok 4 if you count 99 game Bradley) and even then only Thome went signficantly over that mark. so yeah, last year in the AL, there was about *1* team out of 14 that had a true full time DH all season.

So what's the point? obviously where the other DH times go, it doesn't take a genius to realize that most AL team rotate their better players in the DH slot .

The problem? this "average DH" is in fact mostly # by guys who play most of their time in other positions, and while they're DHing, the guy who's taking their spot on the field tend to suck with the bat.  that's what we're overlooking.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080925&content_id=1455905&oid=36019&vkey=6

Let's just use the Yankees as a example, Steve Goldman noted that the Yankees DH was pretty decent last year at  282/.378/.461 , but Mr. Goldman miss the point, while Posada's DHing, Jose Molina is giving away automatic outs, while Jason Giambi is DHing, Wilson Betemit is sucking in the field, while Johnny Damon DHs, then usually it's something along the lines of Justin Christian or Brett Gardner.

This is my point, unless your team has a true full time DH like Jim Thome, then your "DH" isn't really "The DH" so to speak, but the bench guy that's inserted into the lineup in place of the regular that's DHing for the day. (unless of course, your using your bench guy as the DH like the Mariners . )

This sort of number would be really hard to compile , since we need to indentify who's actually replacing who, but if someone do compile such numbers, I highly suspect the "average DH" will look at lot more like "the average catcher" then "the average first baseman"

• Harold Baines
• Jay Bell
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Ron Gant
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Jesse Orosco
• Dave Parker
• Dan Plesac
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

Here we go again, let's see how many idiots vote for Dan Plesac this year?

Ricky is a obvious no-brainer, Big-Mac would be too if wasn't for that which shall not be named.

Amoung others, Raines / Blyleven should be in but would likely take awhile.

Jim Rice will get in... is there really that much of a difference between him and Parker / Murphy / Baines / Vaugh ? hell I'd take TJ / Smith / Trammell if Rice is in.

Just a thought, but with the M's unlikely to be good in the next couple of years, why should they hold on to Kenji Johjima and his 3/24 contract? instead of playing Jeff Clement there?

I mean Johjima was hit by bad luck this year so there is the problem of his trade value, but even then, him blocking Clement is almost as bad. while he's likely a better short term player than Clement . by the time the M's are ready to contend again he's probably not there anymore.

There's a few team that's pretty darn desperate for a catcher, the new M's FO would do well to try and fleece someone with Johjima. Boston? Detroit? either NY team?

I'm looking at the recent PMR posts, and comparing them with PMRs from last year, and what really struck me was how inconsistent players seem to be from year to year.

There are even cases where someone goes from really bad to pretty good (Hanely) or vice vera (Coco Crisp) and some known long time attrocities (Mr. Jeter) were able to make remarkable recovery in his mid 30s.  and while there seem to be some consistency, as a whole it just seem to flucate pretty wildly.

so while I agree that defense is the one area where some teams are really holding a edge over others, the question begs that how consistent are these results and what should we really make of it?  while obviously  a known good glove like Mark Teixiera would surely out perform the statue of Jason Giambi in any given year. on a more general bases, is it truely a good idea to base signings and trades heavily on defense?

A lot of buzz have been going around on the Blue Jays possibbly taking over the East this year. many "experts" took them over the Yankees, and quiet frankly. that's just an absurd prediction based on not facts and logics, but bias and false hopes.

Here's the reasons why the Jays will most likely be once again, a good but not great also ran in the East.

1. HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH: the Jays have been sunk badly over the last few years by health reasons. particularly last year, when their healthiest vet was Frank Thomas, a man who was almost finished by injury just two years earlier. beside Thomas / Hill and Rios and to a lesser extend McDonald, their entire lineup was basically struck down by injury.

Reed Johnson: major back injury, killed performance and now possibily career

Vernon Wells: major shoulder injury that completely killed his performance

Lyle Overbay: suffered a HBP on hand that ended up having surgery on. # took big hit after injury

Gregg Zuan: took pitch off hand. similar to Overbay.

Troy Glaus: foot issues.

So what do they do this winter? add in David Eckstein and Scott Rolen. for those of you who don't see the obvious irony of this ...

games played in 05/06/07

Eckstien (aka the god of grit and scrap!) : 158/123/117

Rolen: 56/141/112

it doesn't exactly take a scientist to figure out that neither of these guys have been anywhere near a picture of health over the last 3 season. Rolen's injuries have been espically serious. and both are on the downside of their career.

many of the injuries suffered on their player last year were pretty serious. it's not your typical hamstring pull or bad bruise . Well's shoulder injury was espically worrisome. and Overbay / Zuan's wrist operation could drain their power for a period of time. Johnson's back operation was clearly the most serious and we all know how that turned out. (he was flat out released)

the pitching side is hardly a much better picture, AJ Burnett is a obvious known suspect, and Dustin McGowan, the young pitcher they're counting on to be their #3 this year, had TJ in 05 and saw a huge inning jump from last year, their closer is still on the shelf and they already lost Casey Janssen for the year.

of their main players. only Rios / Hill hasn't a. been seriously injured sometime in the last 2 to 3 year. or b. really old. which brings us to the next point.

2. age: remember how the Yankees lineup is due for major regression (supposedly ) because of age? guess how many players on the Blue Jays lineup would be older than the entire Yankee roster? none? nope, 2. Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs are both older than the oldest Yankee player (Jason Giambi and Mariano Rivera, Gregg Zuan is just 3 month younger than Jason) . they have exactly 3 guys under 30 in their lineup on most nights, Wells (29) Rios (27) and Hill (26). that's hardly the fountain of youth there. Gregg Zuan is actually older than Jorge Posada. and guess what, their starting 9 is actually OLDER than the Yankee starting 9 on average.

3. stats just doesn't add up. last year they had brilliant pitching and mediocare hitting. the pitching is unlikely to get better. particularly in the bullpen. it's a simple logic that guys like Downs and to a lessor extend Accordo will repeat their 200 ERA+ seasons from last year, and they already lost Janssen, the SP side may be a bit trickier. as Burnett / McGowan have the potential to be awsome . but Marcum and Litch's soft tossing ways are unlikely to be very sustainable, particularly Litch, who had a non-existent K-rate last year. and he's GB rate is only good but not awsome good. the Hitting may or may not improve. though it's hard to see Rolen being much of a upgrade given his health. while Eckstien is a likely upgrade with the bat (only because McDonald's non-existent offensive game) but he'll cough some back on defense. Matt Stairs have no hope of comming anywhere near last year's # (where he basically out hit Manny Rameriez) . though with potential improvements to Rios / Hill and a bounce back on Wells / Overbay it could happen. but unless they immediately goes back to his 2006 form that offense upgrade would be minimal at best.

barring a huge disastor. it's hard to see the Yankee / Bo-Sox run-differential change significantly from last year. where they were 97 / 101 pythag win teams respectively. to demostrate that that means. the Red Sox scored 210 more runs than they gave up last year, the Jays only a bit over 60, it doesn't take anyone with a brain to understand that the larger the difference the more likely your to do well . even with the Yankees playing horriblly in close games last year they were still only 3 games under their pythag. the Jays have a massive holes to close. and it's very unlikely that they do it.

They're off to a good start, and obviously anything CAN happen (well except maybe the Giants not finishing last and setting some records of low scoring this year) but the chances are just seriously against them. the people who are picking the Jays to finish 1st or 2nd in the East are most likely ignoring a little common math logic here. the only way it happens is if one of the Yanks / Red Sox collapses VERY badly (worse than the 07 Yanks, like the 06 Bo Sox when Becektt forgot how to pitch and Jason Varitek went down .) AND the Jays getting career years from someone (ala 06 Wells / Overbay) even then, the chances of them in the playoff is pretty slim. the current baseball division configuration has hurt them more than any team in the sports.

I like John's True or False segments. so lets do another one of these...

True or False: the Tiger's trades over the winter will NOT be enough to give them the best offense in the Majors. the Yankees will still outscore them.

seems like he'll make the Yankee bullpen.

an interesitng guy. he's 29. he's one of the few guys the Yankees plucked out of Indy ball over the last few year (they actually have 3 such players in ST. he , Edwar Ramirez and Justin Christian )

he's been putting up video game numbers not unlike Edwar Ramirez. he does it with a violent over the top deleviry from his 6'7 frame and long arm. coupled with a solid curve from the same angle maeks it quiet devastating despite only hovering in the low 90s.

with the way Giradi is using him (basically inserting him whenever they're a jam and the SP reached his pitch count) and that he's gotten out of everything so far. (only 1 base runner via single so far in 6 inning with 5 K) seems like he's a strong front runner for a spot.

it be a interesting feel good story to watch . if he and / or Edwar Ramriez manage to contribute this year.

it's interesting cause it seems that the 3 remaining spots on the Yankee pen. 1 will go to a ex-indy ball player . the other will go to a NRI (Billy Traber) . the Yankees aren't even the Yankees anymore heh. you'd think they be the one knocking Dotel / Linebrink out cold with a block of money.

ST# don't mean much and all. but Zito's line so far must be truely worrisome.

14.92 ERA, 14.2IP 21H 0K(!!) 10BB 4HR. it's not just 1 bad outting, try 3 out of 4. the comical K/BB ratio really raise an eyebrow. and there's really just nothing good you can take out from any of this.

he's periphals been going the wrong way for a looooong time now. but this is truely scary.

Anyone that's been watching give us a clue on what's happening here? trying out stuff is one thing. but something's really wrong when you manage to strike out no one after going through so many batters in 14 IP .