With Brian off attending to something that he refers to as a 'personal life' and the venerable MRW occupied as well, I thought I'd call attention to a couple of things I saw over the past two days. The first two items are from Chris Brown's blog at BuffaloBills.com, one of the - to me - more interesting features on the Bills' official site.

Nix has had all kinds of things to say about the draft. He's said that he doesn't like to trade up due to the loss of draft picks. He's also said that he'd consider trading up for the right player--and did so in the most recent draft after failing to move back into the first round in the 2010 draft. He's said that he doesn't like to trade down since there's generally someone on the board the team wants, and that trading down means possibly losing that player. We haven't seen Buffalo trade down (or heard any rumors of a potential deal in 3 drafts), but Nix has talked about dropping down in the draft to acquire more selections.

Nix has also said that he's a professional liar when it comes to the draft and now we have a quote to back it up. In referring to Buffalo's desire to land offensive lineman Cordy Glenn in the draft, he had this to say:

"Hell no he’s not a guard," said Bills GM Buddy Nix of Glenn. "He started 50 games and the last 16 were at left tackle. We put it out there and tried to spread the rumor that he was a guard to hope somebody wouldn’t take him."

We all knew that teams would sometimes generate false rumors about guys they hoped to draft or play up negative angles to start a player to slide. Less clear is how the players themselves might feel about these tactics. It doesn't matter as much now that the rookie wage scale is in effect but Glenn might not be thrilled with the idea that the team he's playing for may have intentionally hurt his draft stock. Given that rookies now look to the second contract to make their fortunes it might not be a big deal. Then again, for certain players, it might be. Should Nix have kept this little nugget to himself?

Continue reading this post »

I tried, I really did. I just couldn't help myself.

The Chargers have reportedly been talking about making a trade up in the draft for Mark Barron. To get him, the theory goes, the Chargers would have to get ahead of Dallas. Because the Bills need guys capable of covering New England's two TE sets, San Diego might have to get Buffalo out of the #10 spot to make sure they get their man. Those inclined to pooh-pooh the idea of the Charges moving up the board are reminded that in 2010 the team moved up from #28 to #12 for a running back Ryan Mathews.

As discussed in my Monster Mock Draft Guide Post, fair value (assuming a 10% jump in value from the draft chart holds true through this draft) would be for the Bills to get #18, a 2nd and 3rd from the Chargers for #10 and a 4th rounder. If the Chargers gave all of those picks to Buffalo in 2012, they'd be left with Barron, a pair of 4ths, a 5th, 6th and a pair of 7th round picks. While that is 7 total picks, it represents just one shot at getting a guy the team is confident can make an immediate impact. I could instead see the Chargers instead offering their 1st and 3rd with the 2013 2nd and the Bill's countering by demanding the 1st and 2nd with the 2013 3rd. It's also possible that the Bills could go for a 1st and 2nd along with some player that Nix really likes, or 1st and 3rd for a player he just has to have. I can't think of any of those so we'll go with the 1st and 3rd with the 2013 2nd for the #10 and 4th because it's the most conservative view of the possible trade.

For the mock draft below (spoiler alert: it features a trade with the Chargers...) I've looked back on the post that I did about A Different Way To Look At The Draft. It's not a board but rather a compendium of mock drafts but I'll rely on it to a fair degree.

1. Colts: QB Luck: Well, duh.
2. Redskins: QB RGIII: They didn't mortgage the farm to pick a tackle
3. Vikings: OT Kalil: He will help keep Ponder upright as well as give a boost to Peterson. Sometimes boring is the way to go.
4. Browns: RB Richardson: Many think he's the drafts best player, an opinion no one seems to have of QB Tannehill.
5. Cowboys: CB Claiborne: The Bucs have holes everywhere while Dallas got to watch the secondary get carved up in recent years...and knows RGIII is inbound. Tampa Bay cuts Dallas a deal (#5 for #14 and 2nd rounder plus a 2013 4th) to get more picks in order to fill more holes.
6. Miami: QB Tannehill: The Dolphins' owner has reportedly said that he wants Tannehill. Jumping up two spots costs Miami a 3rd (possibly a little more) but ensures that no one will hop in front of them by trading with Jacksonville and scooping up the guy who they hope will be the QB of the future.
7. Jaguars: WR Blackmon: The Jags want to trade back but the teams who are really hurting at WR are far enough back - and the depth at WR is good enough - that no one wants to pay the freight. Getting the consensus best WR in the draft isn't too punishing.
8. Rams: OT Reiff: St Louis would have taken Blackmon if he'd fallen to #8 but the idea was instead to take an OT to replace the ineffective Jason Smith and add picks. Mission accomplished.
9. Panthers: DT Cox: Carolina hangs up on Andy Reid, who has a history of trying to trade up for linemen he covets. (Think Ngata...)
10. Chargers: S Barron: I kind of warned you this would happen. The Chargers have to keep Buffalo from taking him in addition to worrying about the Jets and others...
11. Chiefs: OG Decastro: He's a popular pick for the Chiefs and for good reason. The Chiefs were able to run all over people and that worked well enough to take the division.
12. Seahawks: DE Ingram: Seattle gets the first pass rusher off the board. OT is another need but the remaining OTs were picked in the 20s in the 15 mocks I looked at, not around 12th overall.
13. Cardinals: WR Floyd: The Cardinals have to hope that Kolb didn't get Losman-ified during the 2011 campaign. Fitzgerald needs help to be effective and Floyd should fit the bill.
14. Bengals: DE Coples: The Bengals have picks to burn and can use some edge rushers. The Bucs drop back again (to 17) and add a 3rd to go with the 2nd and 2013 4th in the Dallas trade.
15. Eagles: LB Kuechly: The Eagles had a terrible LB unit in 2011. Adding Ryans in the offseason helps and Kuechly could ensure that the most glaring team weakness becomes a real strength. Not getting the deal with Carolina works out pretty well.
16. Jets: DT Brockers: Ryan loves his linemen. Poe was picked about 4 slots ahead in the 15 mocks I looked at but I could see the Jets shying away from a guy who had a great combine.
17. Bucs: CB Gilmore: Yes, Tampa finally makes a pick.
18. Bills: OT Glenn: He's versatile (which Gailey likes), from the South (which Nix likes) and enormous (which CHIX likes). He also represents value, particularly with the 3rd that Buffalo picked up from San Diego in this draft and the 2nd in the next draft.
19. Bears: WR Wright: The Bears add a receiver, which should help them stay competitive in the pass happy NFC North.
20. Denver: DT Poe: Denver ships the Titans #25 and a 2nd for #20 and a 4th to pick a guy that many seem to think will go off the board much, much earlier in the 1st.
21. Bengals: DE Mercillus: As stated above, the Bengals could use some edge rushers.
22. Browns: CB Kirkpatrick: He may simply be the best player on Cleveland's board. QB is the most obvious need but with a pick early in the 2nd it's a good bet that the Browns won't have to reach for one.
23. Lions: OT Martin: Keeping Stafford alive would be a good thing for Detroit's push towards a Super Bowl.
24. Steelers: LB Upshaw: Yes, the Steelers need offensive linemen but we're talking Pittsburgh here.
25. Titans: DE McClellin: The Flaming Thumbtacks drop back, acquire an extra 2nd and get a guy who they might have taken at 20. Well done.
26. Bills: WR Hill: Buffalo ships a 2nd, original 3rd and 4th to Houston. The Bills do what the Chargers did-trade up to keep a team from possibly taking the guy they wanted.

So there it is, Bills fans. Buffalo exits the first round with OT Glenn and WR Hill, no 2012 second round pick, a lower 3rd round pick, one 4th, two 5th, one 6th, and two 7th round picks, along with San Diego's 2013 2nd rounder. The Bills ultimately have 9 picks but come away with two players at positions of need who had (?) first round grades.

On a selfish note, please consider recommending this so it won't get buried under the avalanche of draft fanposts sure to hit the site in the next day or two.... It can help those who are writing those fanposts base them on a fairly realistic formula.

In the past Nix has said that he just likes to be lazy on draft day, standing pat and picking guys who are the top of the board. He's made some comments recently about possibly trading down. In 2010 Nix tried to trade back into the first. Of all the things that he's said and done possibly the most important was when Nix said he was a born liar this time of the year. In short, no one knows what Buffalo will do on Thursday.

The Bills have three basic options: trade up (from 10 or back into the first round), stand pat, or trade down. I'm well known as a guy who loves to look at the possibilities of trades-down more than up. MarioTheBill commented in a story about Buffalo's desire to trade down that mock drafts with 47 different trade down scenarios would soon hit the front page. This one doesn't have quite that many.....

I looked at the draft value chart before the 2011 draft and found that it became more - not less - relevant over time. The 2011 draft, the first to feature a rookie pay scale, may have been an outlier or may have been the shape of things to come. In 2011, teams moving up "paid" about 10% over chart value. I'll stick with that for this article. I'm also sticking to the draft pick slots without considering compensatory picks, the Saints' penalty or the Raiders' supplemental pick.

Jaguars

I'll start with Jacksonville, a team that has floated rumors about trading down as well. Say that a player that CHIX views as elite falls to #7 and that also plays a position of dire need. Think Claiborne or Kalil. While Nix has said that he hates to give up picks (and that he's a liar...) it is conceivable that Buffalo might be tempted to move up to #7.

Trade possibility: #7, 4th and 5th for #10, 2nd

Dolphins

Again, I think it would take someone CHIX regarded as really special to inspire a move up the board. Also, there would be the natural aversion of dealing with a division foe. It would be cheaper for the Bills, though.

Trade possibility: #8 for #10 and 3rd

Panthers

I can't imagine the Bills needing to move up just one slot but say that Blackmon fell to 9 or that the Bills were worried someone else would trade up and snatch Floyd.

Trade possibility #9 and 4th for #10 and 3rd

Chiefs

As with the Panthers, I don't see the Chiefs trying to move up just one spot. If they're targeting a guy like Decastro it's not likely that Buffalo would take him. The Bills could, however, trade the pick to someone who would take a guy the Chiefs covet.

Trade possibility #10 and 5th for #11 and 3rd

Seahawks

Seattle has no 5th round pick, thanks to Buffalo. Pete Carroll has shown that he's willing to throw around draft picks with an abandon. The Seahawks are one of the wild cards on draft day.

Trade possibility #10 for #12, 3rd and 6th

This would really limit Seattle's options in terms of numbers of picks-no 3rd, 5th or 6th. Another possibility, one that would leave Seattle with more selections, including a pair of third rounders...

Trade possibility #10, 3rd and 6th for #12 and 2nd

Cardinals

Arizona has no second round pick and has only an extra 6th. This makes them a poor candidate for trading up to #10. However, if they just had to do it they would need to essentially give Buffalo everything they have in 2012 to do it. All to move up 3 slots.

Trade possibility #10 for #13, 3rd, 4th, 5th.

Cowboys

Jerr-uh Jones loves to work the board and has a history of trading with Buffalo. Yes, the Cowboys bent over Buffalo so the Bills could take on JP Losman. It would be nice to get some retribution....

Trade possibility #10, 4th and 5th for #14, 2nd

Eagles

Andy Reid is probably still shaking his head over Buffalo's refusal to trade picks back in the Jauronian Era when the Bills passed up the obvious pick (Ngata) for some guy who now plays in San Fran. The Eagles are always busy on draft day.

Trade possibility #10 both 5th for #15 and 2nd

While I'm not prone to trying to add scenarios that involve players, the Eagles are trying to divest themselves of Asante Samuel-one of the INT leaders in the NFL. They're reportedly willing to take what they can get since they don't want to pay Samuel. The Bills still have some cap room and a real need at CB so....

Trade possibility #10, 4th and 5th for #15 and 2nd and Samuel

Jets

I can't imagine New Jersey shipping picks to Buffalo. Someone that Ryan just had to have would have to be on the board at 10, perhaps unexpectedly, and likely to be taken between 11-13. It's improbable but....

Trade possibility #10 for #16 and 2nd

Bengals

The Bengals are one of the teams that has the juice to move up the board with ease. The team has found a QB and a stud WR. The question is whether the Bills will be fortunate enough for someone Marvin ‘Rasputin' Lewis just has to have.

Trade possibility #10, 3rd, 4th, 5th for #17 and #21.

Another way to go about the trade would be for the Bengals to keep #21 and instead go with...

Trade possibility #10, 4th for #17, 2nd, 3rd

Chargers

The Chargers are no longer the only team in the AFC West with a real QB. Palmer was effective in Oakland and Manning may be back to form in Denver. Whether they want to get after the QB with a guy like Ingram, score points with a guy like Floyd or protect Rivers with the second OT off the board...

Trade possibility #10, 4th for #18, 2nd, 3rd

Bears

You can see that it's getting really costly to move up to #10 from the late teens. This makes it less and less likely to swing a deal, at least for 2012 picks.

Trade possibility #10, 5th for #19, 2nd, 3rd

Titans

It's hard to imagine the Titans flying up the board for just about any player, except for perhaps Kalil.

Trade possibility #10 for #20, 2nd, 3rd, 5th

Browns

Holmgren knows how to work the draft board. With a pick at #4 it's entirely possible that the Browns would be willing to pay the freight to move back up to #10. Making the move easier is the value of their 2nd round pick-not typical of teams picking in the early 20s.

Trade possibility #10 for #22, 2nd, 4th, 5th

If the Bills are determined to get back into the end of the first round, the Browns would likely represent the first opportunity. Nix has said he doesn't like to give up picks (...and that he's a liar...) so I don't see it happening but...

Trade up possibility #22 for 2nd, 3rd, both 4th

Lions

The Lions might be the 2011 Falcons. They believe that they are very close to getting to the Super Bowl. If there is a player on the board at #10 who can think that they can get them over the top it's possible.

Trade possibility #10 for #23, #54 and 2013 2nd

Again, I don't see it but....

Trade up possibility #23 for 2nd, 3rd and both 4th

Steelers

The Steelers seem to be a team on the brink of a dramatic free fall in terms of players. They still have a core of guys but the supporting players are aging and the team could bet the house to make another run before the decline.

Trade possibility #10 for #24, 4th and 2013 1st

If the Steelers decide to go more long term they might be open to getting more picks.

Trade up possibility #24 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Broncos

Denver has just added Manning, a terrific QB who is also a statue. The DBs are old by NFL standards. It may be time for Elway to make some draft day waves to take advantage of the limited QB window that is now available.

Trade possibility #10 for #26, 3rd, 2013 1st

On the other hand, the Broncos may be looking a bit more long term and be in the market for other picks

Trade up possibility #25 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th

Texans

Houston fielded a very good defense, though it has lost some guys like Mario Williams. Schaub should be back and the team could be in the same boat as the Lions-on the cusp but not quite there.

Trade possibility #10 for #26, 3rd, 2013 1st

Trade up possibility #26 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th

Patriots

Dealing with the devil is touch and go. With that said, the Pats have the juice to do pretty much anything they want to on draft day. They have an extra 1st and 2nd though nothing after the 4th.

Trade possibility #10, both 4th for #27, #31 and last 2nd

The Pats love to trade down and have a couple of options for needy teams.

Trade up possibility #27 for 2nd, 3rd, 5th

Trade up possibility #31, 4th for 2nd and 3rd

Packers

Green Bay could be looking for an elite player, perhaps one who is available at #10. It's doubtful that they'd give up what it would take to leap up from 28 but....

Trade possibility #10 for #28, 2nd, 2013 1st

It's also hard to see Green Bay trading down but the price is falling to the point that Nix has reportedly been willing to pay it in the past...

Trade up possibility #28 for 2nd and 3rd

Ravens

The Ravens front office is way to smart to do this:

Trade possibility #29, 2nd, 2012 1st

At the same time the team doesn't have a lot of holes so it could...

Trade up possibility #29, 5th for 2nd and 3rd

49ers

Unless Harbaugh has to have a particular Stanford OT that Brian seems to like for Buffalo I can't see the team looking to move up from 30 to 10.

Trade possibility #30, 2nd, 4th, 2013 1st

We're to the point in trading up that Nix could actually take a real interest. Swapping two picks for two picks means that the Bills retain the same number of selections with better positioning.

Trade up possibility #30, 4th for 2nd and 3rd

Giants

I don't know that the Giants have any need or inclination to move way up the board. If they did...

Trade possibility #10 for #32, 2nd, 3rd, 2013 1st

Getting the last guy before the start of the second round could been a boon to the team that exercises the 32nd selection.

Trade up possibility #30 for 2nd, both 4th, 5th

Rams

No, the Rams won't be trading up to #10. Buffalo could trade up to #33 however.

Trade up possibility #33 for 2nd, both 4th

Since the Rams also have another early second rounder...

Trade up possibility #39 for 2nd and later 4th

Colts

The team is in full on rebuild mode and could use extra selections.

Trade up possibility #34 for 2nd, both 4th

Vikings

They're a hard team to figure but could look to trade down in the 2nd round just a few slots.

Trade up possibility #35 for 2nd, 4th, 5th

Bucs

The Bucs are missing a 4th and have lots of holes.

Trade up possibility #36 for 2nd 4th, 5th

Browns

Cleveland doesn't need the picks but their front office could turn them into future draft picks.....

Trade up possibility #37 for 2nd, 4th

Jaguars

Yes, I know I did them already but that was Buffalo shooting up to #7.

Trade up possibility #38 for 2nd and 4th

Panthers

As with the first round it's pretty unlikely the Bills will want to move up just one slot...

Trade up possibility #40 for 2nd and later 4th

There you have it, Bills fans. I think that actually came out to 45 different trade scenarios so I came pretty close to MarinoTheBills prediction. This should give you an idea of the kind of value the Bills would get from trading down and what it would cost to move up as well. Have at the mock drafts!

I love spreadsheets; the nerd in me seeks opportunities to dump data into Excel and watch it compile. Everyone has their own view of the draft, who is likely to be taken where. Mock drafts - not ours, various beat draftniks and writers - have different guys going in a variety of places. Michael Floyd, for example, is seen as going anywhere from the top 10 to the low 20s. I was curious where the average writer thought he'd go. Averages, Excel, spreadsheets....ahhhhhhh.

I found mocks by 4 writers on NFL.com (Reuter, Baldinger, Brooks, Davis), Walter football, SI, draft countdown, drafttek, 5 writers on usatoday.com (Bell, Corbet, DAvis, Rang, Bunting) and Schrager at foxsports. I looked at 160 prospects listed on those 15 total mocks, and where they were taken on the various mocks. (Only a couple of mocks went to 160 while most were only 1 or 2 rounds.) I had Excel then average the slots each guy was selected and came up with the chart below the jump.

Continue reading this post »

I have an unnatural fascination with draft day trade scenarios. I've got nerdy color coded charts showing which teams have which picks and the chart value of each pick. I've even got the Saints' second round pick and Raiders' third round pick (both forfeited, one due to penalty and the other for a supplementary selection) charted. Some don't believe that Nix is capable of moving up and down the board. Nix, if you recall, did indeed try to trade back into the first round in 2010. He's also talked about acquiring extra picks. The easiest way to acquire extra picks is to trade down. Both, in theory, are possible for Nix...though it would be very surprising if Nix traded up from 10.

Moving on from the theoretical to the practical, there are 8 teams who aren't in a position to trade up without mortgaging future drafts. The Ravens, Jets and Bucs are missing 4th rounders. The Panthers and Raiders don't have 3rd round picks. The Redskins, Cardinals, Raiders (again), and Saints don't have 2nd round selections. The Raiders (ouch-only 2 picks on draft day for the new owner), Falcons and Saints have traded away their first rounders.

Five teams are in prime position to move up in the draft. The Browns have an extra 1st and 4th. The Bengals have an extra 1st and 5th. The Patriots have an extra 1st and 2nd, though nothing after the 4th round. The Rams have an extra 2nd but no 5th. The Eagles have an extra 2nd and 6th. Other teams are able to move up, but only by shorting the number of picks that would normally be available. For this post I'll stick to the 5 draft rich teams.

For each of these scenarios, I'm going to suggest that Nix - who has a history of picking players about where they should be, otherwise known as staying true to the board - doesn't see any of the players likely to be on the board at 10 as worth that pick. Further, I'm going to speculate that the Bills are targeting an offensive weapon to help out Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 3rd year of the CHIX regime needs to show real progress and that requires putting points on the board.

While the knee jerk reaction would be to assume that an offensive weapon would be a WR like Blackmon (most likely gone by the 10th pick), Hill (Georgia Tech), or Quick (awesome name for a receiver), I think that the Bills might instead look at TE Coby Fleener. There's no way Fleener will get past San Fran and the 49ers might even trade up 5-6 spots to try to get him. My suspicion doesn't matter much in that even if the Bills wanted a WR somewhere in the high teens/low twenties would be the best place to be.

Rams-pick 10 for 33, 39, 66 and 97

I don't see the Rams expending their bounty of picks from Washington in this manner. Someone they just had to have would need to fall to 6 and someone else they just had to have would need to fall to 10. I don't see it. If anything, I see the Rams moving up to 5 if Blackmon is on the board.

Browns-pick 10 for 22, 37 and 101

This would be a fairly easy trade for the Browns to justify as they'd have a pair of top 10 selections. This would allow the Bills to get Fleener while adding a 2nd and 4th round pick. For a team like the Browns that has some talent this could allow them to add what they believe to be a couple of blue chip prospects. It's easy to imagine this working out if the Browns took Blackmon at 4 and Tannehill was on the board at 10-or if Holmgren really liked one of the DEs.

Eagles-pick 10 for 15 and 51

The Bills don't get as much out of this pick as dropping back to 22 would net. However, Nix is a cautious guy and this would ensure that the 49ers couldn't jump in front of Buffalo and take Fleener. Buffalo would get a TE would can stretch the field and an extra 2nd round selection. One pick for two picks happens more often than one pick for more than two picks.

Bengals-pick 10 for 17, 53 and 85......or pick 10, 72 and 125 for 17 and 21

It's more likely that the Bengals would go for the first of those two options as they'd still have a pair of first round selections. This works out a bit better for the Bills than the Eagles trade, in my estimation. The first round position is about the same and the Bills add an extra 2nd and 3rd. I'm not sure what player would have to be on the board for the Bengals to pull the trigger on this sort of trade.

Patriots-pick 10 for 27, 31, and 95

I just don't see Belichek flying all the way up the board unless someone remarkable slid all the way to 10, a guy like Kalil or Claiborne. In terms of picks, the Patriots would still have a pair of second round picks....at least one of which would be traded for a 2013 first rounder. If Fleener was the target, the Bills would need to move up from 27 to stay far enough in front of the 49ers. That would leave the Bills with a pick like 24 or so along with 31 (with 95 being sacrificed in the move back up).

The Redskins have done something amazing; traded 3 first rounders and 1 second rounder before the draft. It's stunning because the Redskins will only get RGIII if the Colts don't take him first overall. Perhaps the Redskins would be equally happy with Luck or RGIII but, given that they're so different, that doesn't seem to likely. Besides, Shanahan won his Super Bowl rings with a mobile (albeit aging) QB. If the Colts do the unexpected it's easy to see Shanahan banging his head repeatedly on the table. On the plus side of the ledger, the Redskins got the 2 pick before a draft day frenzy could drive up the price. (When the likely draft chart values are added up the Redskins effectively paid 4800-assuming they draft 7th next year and 12th the year after-for a pick worth 2600.....so the Rams got the rough equivalent of the 1st and 4th pick in the draft for the price of the 2nd. Well done, St Louis.)

With that out of the way and free agency yet to begin, I thought I'd take a stab at a mock draft.

1. Colts: QB Andrew Luck: It would be high comedy if the Colts took RGIII and it can't be brushed off as an impossibility. The Colts are in full-on reboot mode and that could mean that the new front office is looking for something other than a Peyton Manning clone.
2. Redskins: QB RGIII: Washington paid a high price, though there is something of an unexpected benefit. Snyder won't have the firepower to trade up in the draft for at least the next two drafts. With enforced discipline shackling his impulsivity the Redskins may finally actually draft better.
3. Rams: WR Justin Blackmon: The Rams have picks to burn and a franchise QB on the roster. Trading up with Minny (#6, #39, #67 for #3) is easy due to the bounty of picks from the Washington trade. Minny is a better trade candidate for the Rams than the Browns because the Browns already have an extra 1st and 4th). The Vikings can also trade down because neither the Rams nor the Browns (Joe Thomas) are candidates to take OT Matt Kalil.
4. Browns: QB Ryan Tannehill: Colt McCoy isn't going to lead the Browns back to relevance. The Browns can't afford to trade down because a team like the Dolphins might take him at #8 or even look to move up in order to get in front of Cleveland.
5. Vikings: OT Matt Kalil: The Vikings trade up just one spot (#6, #67-both acquired from St Louis) and get their guy. Plus they have an extra second round selection (#39 from the Redskins through St Louis) and get to pay Kalil a little less. It's win-win-win for the Vikings.
6. Tampa Bay: CB Morris Claiborne: I was glad when Aqib Talib wasn't taken by the Bills because he came across as a Pacman Jones type idiot. With him possibly spending the next year or three in prison and Ronde Barber one of the oldest guys playing a real position in the league, Claiborne is an obvious pick....possibly one the Bucs would have made at #5 anyway, and this way they have an extra 3rd to make up for their lack of a 4th round pick.
7. Jaguars: WR Michael Floyd: Gabbert needs help. He already has MJD in the backfield so the Jaguars have to find people for him to get the ball to or people to keep Gabbert vertical. With Kalil off the board, Floyd is the best option in terms of need and value.
8. Miami: RB Trent Richardson: Bush is an every down runner. Bush is an every down runner. Bush is an every down runner. Say it all they might, Bush is not an every down runner. Also, Miami had a very good running game with the combination of Ronnie Brown and Pothead Williams....and a very good running game takes the pressure off of a so-so QB, which is what Miami has.
9. Panthers: DT Dontari Poe: Someone has to fly up the draft board based on a great combine and the Panthers can't stop the run. Cam Newton can keep the offense moving but only if the defense can get him the ball.
10. Seahawks: DE Melvin Ingram: Seattle sends Buffalo #12 and #76 for # 10 and #125 in order to take the first defensive end off the board.
11. Chiefs: OT Riley Reiff: After failing to trade up with Miami the Chiefs get a nice and necessary consolation prize. The Chiefs needed to give Cassel some protection.
12. Bills: WR Stephen Hill: He's big, he's fast and he's from Georgia Tech. What more needs to be said?

Before last year's draft, I wrote an article that dispelled two draft day myths: first-round trades are rare, and the draft value chart is increasingly irrelevant. The first myth arose seemingly from an ‘it doesn't seem like' mushy sense of what happens instead of simply looking at the number of first rounders that change hands. The second myth was tied to the craziness of the first round deals being handed to untried players.

And now we have a change in how first rounders are paid. Money is no longer the driving factor, as rookies are more or less slotted into much more modest pay ranges. The obvious question, then, is how the 2011 draft turned out in terms of first round trades. Were there more or fewer trades? Was there more action at the top of the draft or less? Did the draft value chart hold up as the guiding force as it has over the past decade?

Continue reading this post »

We all know that Buffalo's biggest need is for an improved pass rush. Of course, we've all know that for quite some time and CHIX has done what about it again? Oh, yeah, bring aboard a gimpy cast-off from San Diego. While I still think Merriman was worth the gamble, the lack of other attempts to address the pass rush in the draft are somewhat puzzling. Common wisdom is that this draft will be different; this draft will see the Bills finally bring in a pass rusher (regardless of the defensive scheme employed) who will make a difference.

What if that isn't in the cards? What if CHIX has other plans in the first round? What if CHIX wants to put a WR on the field who is both big and fast enough to both stretch the field (freeing up a hopefully re-signed) Stevie Johnson? What if, as seems likely, the Bills don't get that WR in free agency? What if the Bills - FINALLY - show a willingness to work the phones on draft day?

Here are a few scenarios based on a couple of different WR options. Mike Mayock lists Justin Blackmon as his top WR with Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd as second and third. Not in his top five, but possibly someone of interest to Buffalo, is Stephen Hill. Hill is (a) from Georgia Tech (which Gailey will appreciate), (b) from a southern college (seemingly the only schools Nix drafts from), (c) has the build Nix appreciates and (d) ran a 4.3 at the Combine.

Justin Blackmon seems likely to come off the board in the top 5 picks, possibly as soon as the 3rd pick overall but 4th or 5th seems more plausible. (Luck, RGIII and Kalil may well be the first 3 guys off the board.) For the moment, let's assume that the Bills want Blackmon and CHIX has a willingness to move up to get him. (Don't say it can't happen-Buffalo reportedly did look to trade back into the first round in 2010.) The Bills would need to get the 4th pick, 5th at the latest. Currently the Browns hold the 4th pick and the Bucs are at 5. There's a good chance the Browns try to move up so it could be the Rams at 4 when the clock starts for that pick. No matter. The Bills could offer 10, 41 and 106 for pick 4. If rejected and Blackmon wasn't taken 4th the Bills could offer the Bucs 10, 41, and 106. Needless to say, this would cripple the draft-leaving Buffalo with Blackmon and picks 72, 106/125, 137, 168, 202. There would be no opportunity to pick up much pass rushing help and TE/OT would once again get a lick and a promise.

If Wright, Floyd or Hill is the target, the Bills could just stand pat a 10 and take him. Nix has said that he's inclined to take guys he wants when they are available. But he's also said that he's a professional liar when it comes to anything he says about the draft. Plus, Spiller and Dareus came off the board about where most draft gurus thought they would which implies that the Bills won't reach for a guy.

If the Bills are enamored with one of the three WRs, trading down might be in the card, or Card(inal)s as the case may be. Wright and Floyd, for the moment, seem to be pegged in the 15-25 range and Hill near the top of the second round. Let's take a look at some possible trading partners.

The Chiefs and Seahawks don't make much sense in terms of getting value out of the 10 pick if one of those 3 WRs is the target in that Buffalo would net a 4th rounder or so. The Cardinals - dumb pun above aside - are without a second round pick and not terribly likely to give up their 3rd to move up 3 slots. I don't see a deal with the Jets working out.... The Chargers would have to covet someone an awful lot since they wouldn't get another pick until the 4th round if they traded up to 10.

The Cowboys (never rule out Jones making a deal) could move up to 10 by shipping Buffalo 14, 83 and 114. It would have to be someone that Jones really wanted, though, for him to limit his draft day options so quickly.

The Eagles have all kinds of juice and could easily afford to send Buffalo 15 and 51 for 10. Doing so would allow them to jump in front of Dallas and pluck someone off the board while Jones could only watch and whimper.

The Bengals could, if they want to help out Dalton by getting a stud OT, make things very interesting for Bills fans. Offering picks 17, 21 and 85 the Bengals could ask for 10 and 41. The Bills could then use 17 on the best pass rusher on the board and 21 on their highest rated WR.

The Bears, who are suddenly in a rough division (wanting a CB perhaps?) could move up to 10. 19, 50 and 185 might get the job done with 19, 50 and 174 as a possible back up offer.

I'm on record for calling for the end of the Buddy Nix tenure. Here are a few concrete examples of why I don't believe that he is the man to lead the Bills back to relevance:

• Kelsay got a fat contract extension. While it has rightly been pointed out that he wasn't an ineffective in 2011 as he has been in past extensions, he's also not a fit at the OLB slot that Nix insisted on pounding Kelsay into. The money could have been better spent locking up players who haven't very clearly hit their ceilings.
• We've all known Good Fitz and Bad Fitz; I think those nicknames are pretty much in standard usage by NFL watchers. We all know that Good Fitz will show up for a while, sometimes entire games. Mostly though, Bad Fitz either puts in an appearance or hangs around for a game or three. Nix gave him a fat contract extension as well. Meanwhile, Dalton looks like a promising franchise QB.
• With Fitz there is the possiblity of Good. With Thigpen, who may have to play at any moment due to Fitz's tendency to run and sometimes take on defenders, there doesn't seem any chance of Good. Nix speaks of stacking talent--inconsistent on top of consistently dreadful probably wasn't what you thought he meant.
• Nix has converted several first rounders into late round draft picks. Wouldn't it have been handy to have had Lynch when Jackson's leg was broken instead of a Choice waiver wire acquisition? Stacking talent again....
• Nix looked at a roster with holes everywhere and burned his very first pick as a GM on a running back. That's not a shot at Spiller, who is showing signs of becoming a real weapon. With Jackson and Lynch on the roster at that point quite a few of us were mystified by the selection when it was made. Some suggested (not me) that it was lunacy to draft a RB who would be on his last legs by the time the rest of the team was built....RBs are the final piece, not the first.
• Nix wouldn't sing Stevie Johnson to a contract extension at what certainly seems like a fair price. Instead, we may wind up watching yet another promising player depart and reach his full potential with another team--probably in the AFC East knowing Buffalo's luck.

I'm sure there are more reasons that people can come up with for why Nix should get the axe--and do feel free to add to the list in the comments section. These were just a few that popped into my head while typing late at night after helping a friend drown her woes.

If Nix isn't the answer - and I'm becoming more convinced that he isn't - it may be best to look elsewhere now for a new GM. How about Chris Polian, with Bill in the background? HIs father turned the Bills around from laughingstock to contenders for an entire decade. He then went to Carolina and, if memory serves, cobbled together a team that went to the NFC championship game two years after it was founded. He followed that up by turning a moribund Colts franchise into contenders for an entire decade. I'm assuming that Wilson won't re-hire Bill a la Billy Martin/George Steinbrenner but he could, just perhaps, hire his son with the old man in the wings giving counsel.

I know I'd feel a lot better about the future of the Bills with Nix out and a Polian running the front office but what are your thoughts?

I had predicted a Broncos win in the Moderators Picks. Not only that, I had gone so far as to suggest that the Broncos would roll up enough rushing yards to threaten the single game record. (I'm not sure what that number is but I was bracing myself for a Tebow led onslaught north of 400 yards on the ground.) As I was in Seattle visiting a friend last week I had resigned myself to missing the game entirely.

Instead, the Bills defense held the league's #1 rushing attack to about 130 yards and I got to see the second half of the game at the Fox Sports bar (way to beautiful of a place to be any sort of sports bar--check it out if you're in Seattle; the food is both very good and very reasonable...plus they showed the Bills game along with every other game and seat people by the game they want to watch).

It seemed as though Dareus had a good game, Shep kept sticking his hat on the ball carrier and that Kelsay was an absolute beast. Was that how it happened? Is that all it took for the Bills to get a win? Is Denver so one dimensional that a 4-3 look was sufficient to shut them down?

(I don't want to talk about McKelvin being out of bounds or the ticky-tacky flag thrown on Royal's TD return; Buffalo was due some breaks after not getting them week in/week out.)

This angers me. The link is to a story on PFT in which Johnson states:

“We tried to do our negotiating and it was turned down,” Johnson said Wednesday, via the Associated Press.

I know it shouldn't be so infuriating and that somewhere, somehow Buddy Nix has a plan for signing Stevie Johnson to a long term deal. Or at least I certainly hope that the Bills plan to extend the one wide receiver in the NFL who has made Darrelle Revis look like merely a good cornerback. Successful teams are built to win their divisions and that means obtaining and retaining players that hurt division foes. Johnson, as has been detailed in other forums, is just that sort of player.

It can't be the 2011 cap count as Buffalo is well below the limit. Further, signing him now - particularly to a front loaded deal that counted towards this years cap - may help the cap situation in 2012. Not only that, taking care of Johnson now would have to reassure guys in the locker room that they would be taken care of and not left wondering about their status with the organization.

What are your thoughts on the matter?

Apparently, a majority of Rumblers want our line reviews to continue, regardless of the availability of data produced by professional sites. It boggles my mind to hear that those sites don't have access to coach's tape; what we see on TV isn't - in my view- sufficient enough to allow the level of precision necessary to get much more in depth than the grading system I've used.

That doesn't mean that change isn't coming to my grading system. I've still got to re-work the Excel spreadsheets I use for calculations, but I've got a direction I think I want to go based in part on reader input. I'll go into more detail when I've got it up and running (hopefully for next week; after the bye at the latest), but the broad strokes are that I'm looking to weigh killed plays and plays in which an offensive lineman does something remarkable that also springs the play more heavily. But we'll cover that next week. Let's get to the normal review.

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I began to look in depth at the Buffalo Bills' offensive line several years ago. Buffalo's line, at that point, included Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston. There was much back-and-forth (on another site, mind you) about Buffalo's centers. Some thought Fowler and Preston were just terrible, and some believed them to be serviceable, or even above average. People bickered back and forth and no one really attempted to back up their positions with any sort of data.

Frustrated with the endless recriminations, I sat down and began to analyze every lineman on every snap and created a rating system to quantify the effectiveness of the individual linemen. It served to give people a taking-off point for discussions about particular linemen, which allowed the conversation to move beyond he's-great-versus-he-stinks.

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The 3-1 Buffalo Bills have completed one quarter of their 2011 regular season schedule. It's time to take a look at how the offensive line has performed during that 3-1 start.

Instead of keeping a running total of how each lineman is doing this season, it seemed reasonable to switch to a separate quarterly report. Not much changed from game to game in terms of grades as the season wore on. Only a brilliant or terrible performance was capable of moving a grade a full percentage point. (On a lazy note, it means that only half the number of charts have to be filled out each week.) The quarterly grades are after the jump.

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The Buffalo Bills squandered opportunities against the Cincinnati Bengals, and as a result squandered the opportunity to spend another week in sole possession of lead in the AFC East. What happened? Yes, the refs at times seemed to be a second unit that the Bills had to face on Sunday. Looking at it a bit more closely, a few other things became clear:

• The Bills ran 20 times and threw 37. That's a puzzling number given that the team had the lead for much of the game. It also made the team predictable, with the Bengals clearly expecting some runs just based on Chan Gailey's play-calling tendencies.
• The Bills ran fewer than 60 plays against the Bengals. While Buffalo had a normal number of possessions (11), the team failed to extend drives.