SB Nation User Blog: Ron From NM

Take A Shot In The Dark

Ron From NM — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 18:42:00 -0000

We've got quite a way to go before we get any real Bills news, barring (hopefully) yet another player arrest. So, why not take a pre-camp/pre-season shot at predicting the final 2009 record? I've listed the Bills' opponents as well as those teams' 2008 offensive and defensive ratings. My own prediction and rationalizations are below that.

2008 offensive ranking defensive ranking

at Pats 5 10

Bucs 14 9

Saints 1 23

at Dolphins 12 15

Browns 31 26

at Jets 16 16

at Panthers 10 18

Texans 3 22

at Titans 21 7

at Jaguars 20 17

Dolphins 12 15

Jets (Toronto) 16 16

at Chiefs 24 31

Pats 5 10

at Falcons 6 24

Colts 15 11

Buffalo goes to Foxboro on Week 1 for a nationally televised beat down by the, as the less-than-evenhanded MNF is sure to describe it, heroically rejuvinated Tom Brady. No doubt we'll be treated to Whitner making an INT in a tiny box at the bottom of the screen while the main image is Brady prattling on about his rehab. (0-1) The Bucs are a little better (statistically) than the Bills but there's a good chance that Tampa is starting Josh Freeman--possibly his first ever start. Buffalo improves to 1-1. The Saints game should be a shootout. Brees will carve up Buffalo's zone coverage while TO and Evans run rampant through the Saints' secondary. I'm pegging this as a 1000+ yard offensive (combined, of course) day and one that Buffalo squeaks out. (2-1) With still no appreciable pass rush, Pennington has all day to dink and dunk his way down the field dropping the Bills to 2-2. The terrible Browns team comes to town and Buffalo avenges the two bizarre losses of the past two season to improve to 3-2. By this point of the season, I can see the wheels coming off of the Rex Ryan bandwagon. If he hasn't punched out his offensive coordinator it's a good bet he's hamstrung him by suspending some critical offensive player who he's deemed 'not tough enough'. Plus, Sanchez is starting, helping Buffalo to climb to 4-2. The Panthers put a stop to any good feelings Bills fans have been nurturing, simply stomping Buffalo in Carolina. (4-3) Buffalo goes all out to stop Andre Johnson and manages to win a second shootout, largely due to Evans and Owens to get to 5-3. Just as fans are starting to whisper about playoffs the Bills get smacked in Tennessee. The Titans run right at Maybin (starting for an ineffective Schobel) on their way to dropping Buffalo to 5-4. The Jags try to play without an WRs, allowing Buffalo to improve to 6-4. With Maybin coming on and Ellis contributing, Buffalo gets enough pressure on Pennington to win a second division game. (7-4) Buffalo head to Toronto for a home game (eyeroll) against the Jets. Sanchez has most of a season under his belt and gets his 3rd or 4th win. (7-5) The Bills return to Arrowhead, site of McKelvin's best game ever. He doesn't disappoint and makes Matt Cassel sorry he ever agreed to leave New England. (8-5) New England comes to town. While the novelty of Brady's injury has worn off (not that the TV crew will ever shut up about it), he's back to form and leads something like 7 consecutive TD drives. TO and Evans just can't keep up. (8-6) Matt Ryan may be in the midst of a sophmore slump but the Falcons' 2nd ranked rushing attack takes a page from the Titans and runs right at (and over) Maybin all game long. (8-7). With Buffalo out of the playoff hunt and the Colts in a dogfight with the Texans for the AFC South title the Bills narrowly avoid posting a winning season by ending the year 8-8.

For those of you who think I'm a pessimist, I'd point out that I have Buffalo winning 2 more division games in 2009 than 2008. I also have the Bills winning a couple of games that could easily go the other way.

Poll

How many games will the Bills win in 2009 based on the little information available at this point?

Suddenly Glad Buffalo Didn't Trade For Owen Daniels

Ron From NM — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 01:44:36 -0000

I was one of several people who entered the offseason hoping that Buffalo would really address the TE position, either via free agency or early in the draft. Owen Daniels was the only free agent TE for Buffalo to consider as an immediate and significant upgrade. The Texans tendered Daniels too highly for the Bills to consider making him an offer. At the time I was disappointed, but now comes word that Daniels wants to be the highest paid TE in the league. Daniels was the pick of the 2009 TE free agency litter but what is it with these guys? Daniels isn't anywhere near the best TE in the league.

This reminds me so much of the Jason Peters situation (who also isn't the best in the league at his position) that I think I'd be physically ill if Daniels was a Bill right now. While only time will tell if the TE the Bills drafted (Nelson) will finally upgrade the position, in retrospect I'm delighted that the Bills never made a play for Daniels.

Does Mike Florio Hate The Bills?

Ron From NM — Thu, 21 May 2009 01:20:37 -0000

I'm a ProFootballTalk.com junkie and hit the site several times per day. It's a great site in terms of one-stop shopping for all of the latest news/rumors. However, Mike Florio (the owner) seems to have several axes to grind when it comes to the Bills. Most obviously, he has lampooned the Bills for signing TO. But he has also taken shots at the front office and players such as Marshawn Lynch. (How the Ko Simpson's 'I'm worth millions' thing escaped his attention is beyond me.)

Today, Florio took a pot shot at John Clayton's recent stab at predicting possible Vick landing places. Clayton named the Rams, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots as teams that might be interested in Vick. So, while shredding Clayton's 'logic' (the Patriots???) Florio trots out his own bit of nonsense. He suggests that the Bills are a leading contender to land Vick. Why?

1. He says Buffalo is in a win-now mode. Well, duh. How would Michael Vick help Buffalo win now or win later? The Bills, for better or worse, have settled on Trent Edwards as the franchise QB. The team even seemingly made a point of not bringing in a back-up who could challenge Edwards. So, Vick wouldn't play QB for Buffalo. The Bills have two top tier WRs and good depth at the position so Vick wouldn't play WR. RB? Sure Vick is fast but would anyone take Lynch off the field and replace him with Michael Vick? Vick wouldn't help Buffalo win now. Or later.

2. He points out Buffalo paid TO more than anyone else was offering. However, Florio neglects to mention that Buffalo had offered about the same money (only in a multi-year format) to Coles. $6ish million dollars is apparently the going rate for WRs not named Fitzgerald. Florio evidently believes that paying the going rate for a WR with on the field issues somehow equates to Buffalo signing a guy with hideous off field issues.

3. Florio revealed that Buffalo made a serious play for Jason Taylor. Taylor plays DE, a position of dire need for the Bills. Vick played QB, a position that will only be a need when Edwards gets hurt. Also, while Taylor's pass rushing ability would mesh well with just about any defense, Vick's style of QB play clearly does not. Hell, Vicks' style of play didn't work out in a system tailor made for Vick--let alone the West Coast type offense Jauron favors.

4. Moving back to TO, Florio somehow believes that Bills' fans will embrace Vick just like TO. Hmmm....while TO is a selfish, selfish man, I don't think he's ever been accused of a brutal felony--let alone convicted after giving a full confession. It's one thing to give the benefit of a doubt to an arrogant guy who has been productive everywhere he's gone and quite another to give the benefit of the doubt to a convicted felon who was hit or miss when he was in his prime.

Poll

Do you sense an anti-Bills bias on PFT?

Yes. Florio takes a lot of pot shots at the Bills. Moreso than he does for teams that aren't Cincy.

155 votes

No. Florio spreads it around fairly evenly. Except for Cincy.

47 votes

202 votes | Poll has closed

Andre Smith

Ron From NM — Tue, 12 May 2009 20:29:26 -0000

The Bills were reportedly very interested in Andre Smith. I, among some others, hoped that Smith would be taken at #6 by the Bengals (and he indeed was) because he seemed to be something of a headcase and he wasn't exactly in the greatest possible shape on his pro day. (That picture still gives me shivers.) Well, according to PFT Andre Smith has fired his agent for the second time in about 2 months.

I am delighted that the draft worked out as it did and Andre Smith won't be Buffalo's problem for the next 4-6 years.

Poll

Are you happy that Buffalo didn't have the option of drafting Andre Smith and all of his issues?

Yes. OBD will be busy enough keeping TO from melting down.

192 votes

No. Headcase or not Andre Smith would have been a great LT.

41 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Ex-Bills QB Jack Kemp has passed away

Ron From NM — Sun, 03 May 2009 02:23:06 -0000

Former Buffalo Bills quarterback and Vice Presidential nominee Jack Kemp passed away Saturday evening. He was 73 years old.

Kemp succumbed to cancer, a battle that became public back in January when his office confirmed that Kemp had been diagnosed with an advanced, unspecified form of the disease. He died in his Bethesda, MD home.

Buffalo's only two championships in franchise history - AFL crowns in 1964 and 1965 - came with Kemp at quarterback.

The Buffalo Rumblings community extends our heartfelt condolences to the Kemp family and the Buffalo Bills organization.

How an NFL rookie pay scale could be structured

Ron From NM — Sat, 02 May 2009 14:01:25 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

Browse more photos »

The 2009 NFL Draft is over and the off-season is effectively gone with it. Players are attending mini-camps across the country, and agents are beginning the process of wrangling with front offices over contracts. It's an unfortunate and sometimes acrimonious process that can turn a fan base against a new player, front office or both.

Two years ago, No. 1 overall draft pick QB JaMarcus Russell held out of Raiders camp, if I remember correctly, until after the start of the regular season. As a result, his first year was a complete waste. His second year was, in effect, his rookie season. Last year it was Jaguars DE Derrick Harvey. He held out for much of the pre-season and never really made any impact at all. Some other first rounder will almost certainly hold out this year as well.

Everyone - except for the agents and incoming Top 10 rookies - recognizes the need for something to be done about the massive contracts handed out to rookies. My stab at a workable rookie pay scale is below.

The heart of my idea is to give, effectively, 1-year deals to rookies with their pay for that year contingent on the round (not overall number) in which they were selected. For example, each player taken in the first round would sign a $1 million (officially) 2-year deal. Players taken in the second round would get $800,000; third rounders would get $600,000 and fourth rounder $400,000 with everyone else getting rookie minimums. There would be no signing bonuses, roster bonuses or any other sort of financial provisions.

This would be a take it or leave it provision for rookies. Taking the deal would amount to poorly paid (by current rookie wage standards) internships for the guys at the top of the draft. For those taken in later rounds there would be a certainty and likely not much less money than they currently get. Leaving the deal would mean entering the rookie pool the next year, at the lowest paid level. There would be no instant windfalls for rookies. Ever.

Is there any chance this sort of rookie pay scale could work?

Yes. Almost everyone has a motivation to embrace it.

232 votes

Maybe. It will be an uphill slog to overcome the NFL's inertia.

246 votes

No. It's madness.

146 votes

624 votes | Poll has closed

LT Levi Jones available

Ron From NM — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 23:12:26 -0000

PFT is reporting that the Bengals will trade or cut LT Levi Jones. Yes, Buffalo picked up a pair of interior linemen over the weekend. If the Bengals are willing to outright cut Jones then perhaps they would take a couple of players--Kelsay and Simpson--off OBD's hands in exchange for Jones' rights. We know that those players have, um, limitations but the Bengals may be able to find some use for them. If nothing else they would make for training camp fodder.

Does anyone know what Levi Jones' current contract looks like? The guy has been a solid LT for quite a while. I'd rather have him facing down speed rushers than Langston Walker. At the very least Jones could keep the LT spot warm for Bell.

Signing Jones would give Buffalo:

Tackles: Jones/Walker, Chambers and Bell as reserves

Guards: Butler/Wood, Levitre and McKinney as reserves

Centers: Hangartner

With Butler's injury history it's a good bet that Levitre will get playing time. Plus, if Hang goes down then Wood could slide to C with Levitre filling in at his guard spot.

Poll

Should the Bills trade for LT Levi Jones?

Yes. He'd bring flexibility and might rid Buffalo of Kelsay and/or Simpson.

261 votes

No. Buffalo should let the new guys play.

54 votes

315 votes | Poll has closed

Draft Rumors Open Thread

Ron From NM — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 23:23:29 -0000

I'll keep this really short so it doesn't take up much room on the front page. Between now and the first pick we're going to hear all kinds of rumors. Instead of doing a FanPost for each of them how about making this space a catch-all? Here are a few to get us started:

- QB Matthew Stafford is in the process of being signed. The main impact for the Bills is that Detroit won't be taking an OT at No. 1, nor will they be taking a LB. If LB Aaron Curry somehow slides to No. 11, the Lions would be sorely tempted to move up from No. 20.

- The Cards are looking over the Titans running backs, possibly as part of a potential Anquan Boldin trade.

- The Bucs, wanting QB Josh Freeman, are allegedly trying to get ahead of the Jets if Mark Sanchez goes to some other team. This could be huge for Buffalo, particularly if Sanchez goes at No. 8 with B.J. Raji and one of the top OTs on the board. Green Bay can't pass on Raji, and I kind of doubt San Francisco will pass on OT if they don't go QB... meaning the Bucs/Jets woudln't be able to trade up any earlier than No. 11.

Woo Frickin' Hoo!!!

Ron From NM — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:41:13 -0000

Chris Brown at BB.com had a draft chat earlier today. A little ways into it:

12:46

[Comment From Alton Valenzuela]
Do you think the bills have intrest in Malcom Jenkins?

12:46

Chris Brown: No

I, for one, have been worried about Jenkins being on the board at #11 for quite some time. Jauron, a former DB, loves taking DBs in the draft--like last year, for example. The Bills, for reasons never made clear, love taking Ohio State DBs. After Jenkins' disappointing Combine 40 times it was clear he would fall out of the top 10....and be there at #11. Let's hope Chris Brown has some inside info on this....

Another Crazed Idea

Ron From NM — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:04:31 -0000

I had a crazed idea the other day about Peppers. Part of the idea was rooted in the reality that Buffalo was willing to give Peters about $9 million per year, money that the Bills now won't have to spend. Also, dumping Kelsay would save another couple of million dollars in cash and cap space.

A report on PFT seems to suggest that the Cardinals are willing to take a 2nd rounder for unhappy WR Boldin. Boldin's asking price? About $9-10 million dollars per year. The Bills *could* swing that deal in terms of both draft compensation and money.

Evans, Owens, Boldin as the starting WRs for a season sounds pretty impressive. Even if Owens melts down the Bills would still have one of the scarier WR combos in the league (Evans, Boldin).

It would make for an interesting draft, in that Buffalo wouldn't have a 2nd....but also wouldn't have a glaring need for a receiving TE. Instead the two first rounders could be used on a defensive player and an offensive lineman.

Strange thought, indeed....