With the announcement that we may finally have an NBA season starting Christmas day - I can start thinking about important stuff again. Instead of wasting my time twitching over twitter feeds at 2am, posting about BRI and "system issues", or watching every available snippet of video with John Wall playing in meaningless pick up games - I can actually start to look forward to NBA basketball.

The Wizards have an intriguing team this year - and I'll be posting my "Five things I'm looking forward to.... Wizards edition" soon - - - but looking at the bigger picture, there are some compelling plot lines and entertaining stories to watch coming out of the League this year.

There are lots of things I'm dying to find out. Will someone finally get tired of his smack talk, and smack Kevin Garnett upside his head? Which GM will be crazy enough to pick up Gilbert Arenas when Orlando uses the amnesty clause on him? Will there be any fan backlash, specifically at Phoenix (Sarver), Cleveland (Gilbert) or Charlotte (Michael Jordan) over the lock out? Can Blake Griffin repeat as slam dunk champion by jumping over the front hood of a Smart Car?

After the jump - the top 5 things I'm looking forward to

Continue reading this post »

Anyone as cynical as me may have noticed some of the bizarre rumors we've heard coming out of the Collective Bargaining sessions and, if you are like me, you may have drawn some weird conclusions. 

We all know the issues backwards and forwards by now. The Owners and their front man David Stern have been harping on the same talking points from day one. By now, anyone that follows basketball can recite them in their sleep:

• "22 of 30 teams losing money"
• "The League lost $300 Million last year"
• "Small market teams are at a disadvantage"
• "System changes are needed to improve League competitiveness"
• yada, yada, yada.
  

Even the players seem to have been resigned from day one that there were going to be major give backs during the negotiations; conceeding a roll back from 57% of BRI to 52.5% of BRI without much of a fight. The union leaders seem willing to bend on certain "system changes" - as long as they don't severely cripple player movement. The end of the Lockout will not be determined by anything the Players or Union accomplish. The end will happen when the Owners think they have squeezed enough out of the Players. Once the Owners think they've gotten everything they want... and even a little more; then Basketball can resume. 

Now that the Owners have the Union on the run and have extracted enough money to offset their claimed "losses", they are in the process of making changes to the "system" to ensure future competitiveness of the League. You know, the changes that are critical for small market teams like Minnesota, Milwaukee and Charlotte to compete on even terms with L.A., Chicago and New York.

After the break, we'll discuss those "necessary system changes" that the Owners want to implement.

Continue reading this post »

I believe that David Stern and the League now have the upper hand in the labor negotiations with the NBAPL. All the talk on both sides about Hard Caps, Flex Caps, Graduating Luxury Taxes, Designer hand bags with the MLE inside, and "blood issues" are a smokescreen obscuring the real issue. The split of revenues between the Owners and the Players has always been at the crux of this lockout. How to share the League's $4 Billion in revenues is the heart of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, if there is to be one.

It appears that Stern has convinced the Owners to finally make a move on the BRI issue and have offered a 50/50 split to the players. The League started by asking for a 45% split... While the players offered 54.3%. Way back when, when this lockout first started, Fifty-Fifty seemed like the perfect solution. Each side moving towards the middle, until they get to 50/50 - and we'd have a deal. That is what I have been waiting for. Let's face it, this is what EVERYONE has been waiting for.

A 50/50 split would effectively eliminate 90% of the League's claimed $300 Million losses. There's no agreement yet - but the Union would be crazy not to accept an agreement before Monday; and I'll explain below the jump.

Continue reading this post »

ESPN has been ranking every NBA player, from 500 to 1, and I've been watching every day to see when John Wall would show up... ESPN asked 91 "experts" to rate each player on a 0 to 10 scale (obviously with 10 being the highest). They were asked to rank the players based on "the current quality of each player".

I was pleasantly surprised when 46-50 came and went and John was not there... and then 41-45 --- meaning John was in the top 40... 

Well today John Wall showed up in the ranking as number 40. I was surprised at his high ranking, especially since he ranked higher than some All-Star quality players like Gerald Wallace (#48) and Carlos Boozer (#50). I thought John had a good season, and he's got a tremendous future - but if you're ranking just on "current" quality, I think he was ranked slightly high.

What do you think?

The Owners are adamant they want a hard cap - and that will fix the competitive and financial problems of the League...

The Players are adamant that they will not accept a "Hard" cap system...

but...

The beauty of the system signed in 1999 is that salary costs are already capped, even if 57 percent is a bit high. If the League grows, the salaries grow - but if the League revenues stagnate, the salaries stagnate as well. The players are guaranteed 57 percent of Basketball Related Income (BRI).  A percentage of every player's salary is put into an escrow account. At the end of the year, an audit is done. If it is found that the players exceeded 57 percent, the overage is taken from the escrow account and given back to the owners. If the players did not exceed 57 percent, the amount in the escrow account is paid to the players.

57 percent was the most the players could receive. In a way, the NBA was already operating under a hard cap system for the last 10 years.

So why the impasse? Why all the posturing? Why the failed negotiations?

Over the last few years, as we've suffered through a global recession, the NBA's revenues stagnated. In 2008-09, BRI rose 2.5 percent. In 2009-10, BRI rose only 1 percent. In 2010-11 BRI rose 4.8 percent. But, players salaries never exceeded 57 percent of BRI.

So, even after revenues stagnated (actually, revenues rose modestly) over the last several years - 22 of the 30 teams are losing money. The highest television ratings ever. The League experiencing tremendous popularity. Yet 22 teams are losing money? Expenses must have risen at a higher rate than the revenues, right? But salaries have stayed constant at 57 percent. Then what has changed from 1999? Which expenses have gone up faster than BRI has risen?

Obviously reducing salaries could fix the problem - but what if the players salaries are not the entire problem? Tom Ziller (SB Nation) did an excellent piece on the mysterious other expenses that seem to have spiraled much higher than revenues. Unfortunately, without an audit of all 30 NBA teams books, we may never know what makes up those "other" expenses.

There are other factors at work here as well. Many owners bought their teams recently, over the past 10 years, and have huge debt service and acquisition costs to recover. So now, we have a bunch of "new" owners that look at their 43 percent piece of the pie and want more.

So - how do you fix the financial problems of the League? (if there is a problem)

Continue reading this post »

I've been in a running argument with some fellow BF posters about Nick Young. My position is that Nick is an efficient scorer - but because of his role in the Offense, he is not asked to "create" offense, but rather to finish offensive plays.

Others have pointed to Nick's anemic assist numbers as proof of  "selfishness to extreme levels" making Nick worthy of "black hole" status; Noting also that Nick frequently refused to pass to open teammates under the basket - and generally poo pooing Nick's scoring as something any two-bit Johnny off the street could match. (While putting Jordan Crawford up as an example).

I simply don't remember Nick playing selfishly last year - and other than one play that stuck out on a fast break, I honestly cannot remember Nick refusing to pass to an "open teammate under the basket"....  Not last year. Not from my recollection. Of course I'm old... and my brain is sometimes fuzzy about facts and such... But not usually about the Wizards. Now, I DO remember him being selfish, and being a "ball stopper" a couple years ago - before Flip Saunders' revitalization of Nick's game. I can recall times he passed up open teammates to shoot.... But not last year.

Then there's my aversion to the simplistic "X number of assists per game" argument. It just doesn't seem to tell the whole tale. As with other "simple" per game stats, they usually require some context, logic and reasoning before jumping to a hasty conclusion. This argument (Is Nick Young a selfish black hole), cannot be decided by "simple" stats. Nor will conjecture about how the Coaching staff has or has not told Nick Young to play do anything but cause further argument. So instead, I decided to look back at the 2010-2011 season and watch each and every offensive play available to me on MySynergySports.com.  I hoped to draw some conclusions from watching the actual plays. I hoped to gather some facts that either proved or disproved my point. And of course, since there's no actual basketball, I'm kind of going into withdrawal.

I invite everyone else to do the same, and I hope you will enjoy the experience as much as I did. Believe me, it helped my withdrawal. There are some observations from my hours of watching Nick Young knock down shots after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Jan Vesely's NBA Post Draft Interview. He talks about learning to win at Partizan and bringing that to the Wizards. Also listen for Mike Prada's question and Jan's answer at about the 1:16 mark.

A couple of my favorite moments from draft night:

ESPN's Mark Jones asking about Vesely being the European Blake Griffin, and Vesely said "I think he's the American Jan Vesely" . Someone should talk to Jan about dissing guys like Griffin, they tend to remember stuff like that. But whatever, at least he's confident.

Another gem from a "global player" when Mark Jones asked Valanciunas why he thought his game was like Chris Bosh, and Valanciunas said: "I don't know. I have not so strong body." Left me in stitches. (uh.... Chris Bosh, you watching this? )

And then there was "THE KISS".... Nuff said. The guy's a stud in my book - I don't care if he can play basketball or not.

After the jump, two post draft interviews with Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton.

Continue reading this post »

So the NBA Draft is over - and our Washington Wizards picked a European forward, a potential defensive stalwart and a combo-guard. Obviously I would have preferred a trade to move up to select either Derrick Williams or Enes Kanter, but as Mike Prada pointed out in his post,  it takes two to make a trade.

Apparently teams wanted to fleece the Wizards by asking for the No. 6, No. 18 and the No. 1 pick next year - Crazy talk. (Hey David Kahn, I hope you have fun trying to move Michael Beasley... LOL... Good luck with that!).

So it is what it is. I really think that Kanter was the perfect fit for the Wizards next to both JaVale and Andray Blatche. But the Wizards were forced to hang on to the 6th pick (and the 18th) and stick with plan A. Unfortunate... but I guess it was better than mortgaging next year's Lottery pick. So here's my take on the Wizards 2011 draft. I've graded each selection and my overall grade is at the end.

Continue reading this post »

In the 43 years since they started giving away NBA All-Defensive awards - 95% of the Championship teams included a player on their roster that was recently selected to the All-Defensive FIRST Team or All-Defensive SECOND team. That's 40 out of the last 42 Championship teams.

The team that wins the Championship this year, will make it 41 out of 43...  as LeBron James was named to the All-Defensive 1st team this year, and Dwyane Wade was an All-Defensive 2nd team selection the last two years....AND the Dallas Mavericks have Tyson Chandler, who was named to the All-Defensive 2nd team this year.

41 out of 43..... That's a pretty high percentage... and what's more amazing is that the two teams that didn't have a "recent" All-Defensive selection, eventually DID. In other words, a player on their Championship roster eventually was selected to the All-Defensive team in a subsequent year.

Is it any wonder that if you look at the teams at the top of the standings over the last several seasons there are always teams with players named to the All-Defensive team?  Miami (Wade, James), Lakers (Bryant), Celtics (Garnett, Rondo), Bulls (Joakim Noah)....  Even some of the newer additions to the Playoff picture are following the pattern..... See OKC with Thabo Sefolosha and Memphis has Tony Allen.

Detroit when they won their Championship in 2005, had Ben Wallace and Tayshawn Prince. The Spurs at one point had BOTH Tim Duncan and David Robinson... and later Duncan and Bruce Bowen. During the three-peat years, the Lakers had Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal.

Everyone keeps saying it....... It was true 43 years ago... and it's still true today:  Defense wins Championships.

Continue reading this post »

I read the NBADraft.net throw out quote questioning Kanter's health. Specifically they said:

One of the big concerns scouts have with Kanter is his physical health. He has had a history of knee problems and there are concerns about his knees not checking out 100% when he has NBA physicals …

Like everyone else I was concerned, especially since I couldn't find anything on the internet that could either corroborate or undermine their statement. I did find a video interview with Kanter that he did at Kentucky where he briefly mentioned that he was "hurt" for some months several "years ago". But there was no specific mention of the ailment. He did say he was healthy now...

Well I finally found something specific about Kanter's knees, and his "history of knee problems".  According to Kanter, he did have trouble with his knee(s), but it's been cleared up. In an interview in late 2010 he said:

"Like two years ago I couldn't play five months because of my knee. I had tendinitis, but my old club took care of me, and right now I don't have anything. Kentucky's trainers are unbelievable"

Of course, that has now been more than three years ago.

Tendinitis... WOW... sounds terrible. Perhaps the Wizards should avoid drafting him, like they avoided DeJuan Blair and his knee "problems". (Insert picture of man beating dead horse here).

By the way, tendinitis is a common ailment among basketball and volleyball players because of the amount of jumping they do - it puts strain on the patellar tendon; that's the tendon that connects the knee cap (patella) to the tibia (lower leg bone). The treatment is usually just rest; but sometimes it also requires Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory DRUGS (NSAIDs)..........gasp................. (like aspirin).

Just a quick post-game thread to get something up so everyone can talk about the game. Two in a row folks.... Young Wiz are starting to come together.

I only saw the second half, but here are my impressions:

Jordan Crawford was very, very good. I was most impressed that he shot 50% from the field (40% from 3).

Andray Blatche follows up his 35 point 19 rebound effort with 25 points and 17 rebounds. Where has THIS Andray been all year?

John Wall turned the ball over too much (6) - but he was an absolute pest on defense getting 3 steals and he got his hands on many more balls.

JaVale McGee had 15 points, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks and  only one goofy play. Has he turned the corner?

There should be some Keys awarded this week.

There has been much speculation, many arguments and lots of back and forth in the Kanter This, Kanter That fan post about whether Nick Young qualifies as an "efficient" scorer. Obviously, those who look at his current 53.8% True Shooting Percentage would argue that he's slightly below averag. Those folks (zl I'm pointing at you) would argue that because the League average True Shooting Percentage is 54.2%  (hoopdata), that Nick Young is a below average efficiency scorer...

However, I've often maintained that a player that shoots less often will always have the advantage over a volume shooter. Players like Aaron Aflalo (62% TSP), Jodie Meeks (61.7% TSP) and Daequan Cook (59.1% TSP), who pick and choose when they want to shoot, and put up less than the League average 7.8 shots a night have the distinct advantage over players that are relied upon by their teams to be the main "go to" scorers every night.

So instead of comparing apples (Aflalo) to Oranges (Young), let's compare Nick Young to the other Guards in the League who are "volume" shooters. 

Continue reading this post »

Editor's note: I was able to purchase a season pass for EuroLeague.TV - The pass allows me to watch most EuroLeague games live, and I can watch highlights and recorded full games for selected match ups. One thing I've noticed about EuroLeague play is that the referees allow bit more physical play. The games seems to feature many fewer isolation plays and much more cutting and passing. The Pick and Roll play is a staple of many teams, but the pick-and-pop is rare. Also, there is much less questioning of the referees... and a more deferential treatment of the referees by both players and Coaches. Players raise their hand when a foul is called. Generally speaking, the players themselves aren't nearly as athletic as NBA players - but they play a more "team" oriented brand of basketball.


Here is my second draft prospect profile for International players.

Jan Vesely (6'11" SF/PF for KK Partizan Belgrade)

Jan (pronounced Yon) Vesely burst onto the scene in his 2008-2009 EuroLeague Rookie season as a rail-thin 18-year-old, where he averaged almost five points and more than three rebounds per game. But those 5 points and 3 rebounds came with tremendous energy and activity, but more importantly, with a combination of size, speed, explosiveness and athleticism not usually seen in EuroLeague play. He quickly became a huge fan favorite.

During his second year, Partizan Coach Dusko Vujosevic decided to develop Vesely as a small forward, because of his quickness, speed and obvious perimeter skills. Vesely blossomed in his second year, becoming a star, and helping Partizan make it to the Final 4 In EuroLeague play in the 2009-2010 season. In the Final 16, playoffs and final four (the equivalent of the NBA Playoffs), Vesely averaged 10 points (57% shooting, 41% from three), 6.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists.

Even though he was considered by many to be a sure Lottery pick, Vesely decided not to enter the 2010 NBA draft. Instead he decided to play another year for Partizan; probably a smart decision - given his weaknesses at the time (shooting, defending). He went back to Europe and worked on his deficiencies.

This year, even though there is not a huge increase in his scoring or rebounding numbers, we see a more complete player. He is no longer limited to scoring on the break or on alley oops. His individual and help defense, a weakness in the past, has greatly improved. While he may not have increased his draft stock that much, he will be a much better player in the NBA for having stayed the extra year playing at the highest level of European competition.


More after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Editor's note: I was able to purchase a season pass for EuroLeague.TV - The pass allows me to watch most EuroLeague games live, and I can watch highlights and recorded full games for selected match ups. One thing I've noticed about EuroLeague play is that the referees allow bit more physical play. The games seems to feature many fewer isolation plays and much more cutting and passing. The Pick and Roll play is a staple of many teams, but the pick-and-pop is not. Also, there is much less questioning of the referees, and never any outward reactions that would show up the referees at all... and a more deferential treatment of the referees in general by both players and Coaches. Players raise their hand when a foul is called. Generally speaking, the players themselves aren't nearly as athletic as NBA players - but they play a more "team" oriented brand of basketball.

Some other things I like about the European brand of my favorite game. The fans are absolutely nuts. Frequently chanting and swaying, or clapping in unison. I'm still not sure whether all the whistling is their equivalent of booing, or if they're acknowledging a good play. You don't see players tripping over photographers inches away from the court - because there's plenty of sideline and end line room for players to come down without falling into cameras, cords, microphones tables, TV equipment, computers and bodies - so as a result, the fans sit a bit farther away from the action on the court.

I will be taking a look at some of the more highly ranked International players, like Jan Vesely (6'11" SF/PF for KK Partizan Belgrade) , Donatas Motiejunas (7-foot Center playing for Benetton Treviso) and the subject of this draft profile:


Jonas Valanciunas, 18 years old, 6'11" 240 pounds
Team: Lietuvos Rytas in the Turkish League
Projected NBA Position: Center

Continue reading this post »

A kid that has been rocketing up the draft boards all year is Derrick Williams, Sophomore at Arizona. Early in the year, he was mentioned as a "possible" late-first round pick. I was like, eh.... Yawn... Wizards will be bad enough to get a top 6 pick, so this guy doesn't interest me. By the time half the season had elapsed, I was hearing about this player from Arizona putting up very nice numbers. 20 points a game. 8 rebounds and shooting 61% from the field. I decided I better set my DVR to record some Arizona games. I haven't been disappointed.

The first game I watched (against Cal), Williams put up 31 points and 12 rebounds. Cal had no one that could stop him... Williams shot 22 free throws and almost single-handed fouled out two of Cal's front line players and had several others in foul trouble. Williams shot 7-12 (58%) in that game and his overall shooting percentage for this year went DOWN. Derrick Williams was all over the court... doing his very best impression of the cartoon Tasmanian devil. High energy. Constant motion. There was everyone else playing basketball, and then there was Derrick Williams playing at a faster speed....

The next game I watched was the Stanford game. Williams looked distinctly less energetic in this game than in the Cal game. He had 6 turn overs, some on mistakes because he looked unfocused. He did show off a nice touch from beyond the College 3-point line, hitting both of his shots from there - and he hit the defensive boards hard... But again, he simply looked unfocused and inattentive. He was frequently caught out of position and got into foul trouble. This was a weird game in the fact that I didn't see the Derrick Williams I was expecting to see. He looked distracted and, well, definitely NOT Tasmanian devil-like.

The following game against Arizona State, Williams dominated again. He scored 31 points on 8-12 shooting, and was continually being fouled by the Sun Devils - making 15 of 16 free throws. Defensively he looked much more energetic, snagging 10 boards and generally wrecking havoc on defense. He got his hands on a number of balls and disrupted the AZ State offense more than a few times with terrific defensive plays. In general Williams looked more like what I expected to see: A player that played hard on every possession, giving everything he had for the entire game.

Continue reading this post »

The top 6 slots in the upcoming draft are pretty much set. With Cleveland having the best chance of landing the number 1 pick and then the Timberwolves and so on down the line.

There may be some minor shuffling between now and the end of the season. I think Cleveland has the worst record locked down. It's possible that Washington could end up anywhere from 2nd to 6th on the list...

Here are the current standings and that clubs chances to land the #1 pick

.

.

.

• Cleveland 10-47 (25% chance)   (The Cavaliers also have the 8th pick, courtesy of the Clippers)
• Minnesota 13-45 (19.9% chance)
• Sacramento 14-41 (15.6% chance)
• Washington 15-41 (11.9% chance)
• Toronto 16-42 (8.8% chance)
• Utah from NJ 17-40 (6.3% chance)  (The Jazz also have the 14th pick, from the Deron Williams Trade)

The top 8 or 9 players are pretty much known as well. There can always be someone that jumps into the Lottery after a great NCAA Tournament run... but for the most part, the top players have been the top players all year... and should be the top players when the draft rolls around.


Washington will get a pick anywhere from #1 to #6. Below the jump, I'll explain why it doesn't matter, because they'll be drafting Jared Sullinger no matter where they are picking from.

Continue reading this post »

Wow - that's it, just wow!!!

Continue reading this post »

Blog buddy Kevin Broom wrote an article for the Washington Post where he attempts to prove how Nick Young's contribution to the team is "fools gold". Kevin's article is well written and very well thought out. He makes the same arguments against Nick Young that we've heard for his whole career. He's a scorer, but that's about it. He doesn't help the team in any other areas and as a result, he should not be considered a long term building block, or even better, traded for "real" assets while he's hot.

Broom specifically looks at Young's statistics since he became a starter and contends that since a big part of Nick's game is shooting long two-pointers, he cannot sustain the kind of productivity we've seen so far. 

Is Young an exception? After all, he’s shooting an excellent 49.5% from that range so far this season. However, the season-long number obscures the fact that until Young became the starter, he was making 57.4% of his long twos. Since stepping up to more defensive attention and stiffer competition, Young has been shooting 42.9% — dropping closer and closer to the 40.5% he shot from that range in his first three seasons.

I've heard this argument before, from our own Mike Prada. It seems like a very valid point, and Broom thinks the Wizards should trade Nick Young before those shooting percentages start to drop. The problem is that those dropping two-point shooting percentages that Kevin quotes in his article don't explain why Nick Young's True Shooting Percentage has gone UP since he became a starter. Nick is currently sporting an excellent 57.0% TSP, 14th in the League for SG's. (right in the same area as Jamal Crawford and Dwyane Wade).

Everyone here knows that I'm a huge Nick Young fan, so before I started research for this article, I tried to put aside my personal bias to answer the following questions:

Can a team afford a high usage scorer that does little else to help the team?
Is Nick Young one of those players? (ie: does Nick do little else?)
Does Nick Young have any room for growth, or should the Wizards trade him?

We'll try to answer those questions below the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Jared Sullinger
Ohio State - Freshman

6' 8" , 250 lbs , 18 Years old

Stats after 21 games  - 30 minutes, 17.8 points (57.6%), 10.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks
Draft projection: Top 10 -  I have him as #5 in my mock draft.
NBA Position: Power Forward



Jared Sullinger has a basketball pedigree. His father (Satch Sullinger) is a High School coach at Columbus Northland in the Sullinger's home town of Columbus, OH. His two older brothers both played for major College basketball programs. Julian, 6 years older than Jared, played forward for Kent State; and JJ (James), 10 years older than Jared, played at home town Ohio State. Jared gets his toughness and rough and tumble style from growing up and playing against his older brothers; but he gets his great fundamentals, footwork and intensity from his High School coach (and Father), Satch.

Sullinger was named Ohio's "Mr. Basketball" his Junior and Senior years at Columbus Northland. He was also named the 2010 Naismith Award winner as the national high school player of the year. That same year, his dad won the Naismith coach of the year. It is the first time a father and son have won the awards in the same year.

Anyone who has played the NBA Lottery Mock Draft on ESPN knows that Jared Sullinger comes up as the Wizards pick more often than not; so let's get to know him a bit better after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

This is the play from Monday afternoon when, with about 58 seconds left in the game and the Wizards clinging to a precarious 4 point lead, John Wall decided to show just why he is so special. After a Milsap miss, Wall rebounded the ball and brought it up court, taking his time.

With 45 seconds left, he exploded around a surprisingly good Javale McGee pick and drove to the paint. All 5 Utah Jazz players collapsed into the painted area to stop Wall ; leaving BOTH Rashard Lewis and Nick Young wide open in opposite corners.

Wall passed it to Nick Young...

Dagger !!!!

Continue reading this post »

Since the Wizards are pretty much set at Point Guard with John Wall entrenched there for hopefully the next decade or more; I've decided to do only short, abbreviated profiles for the current crop of Point Guards in the 2011 draft. The first batch includes Duke's Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker from Connecticut, and Kentucky's Brandon Knight. Keep reading at the end for an update on the Enes Kanter eligibility issue.

More after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Perry James Jones III
Baylor - Freshman

6' 10"    230 lbs ,  19 Years Old
Stats after 10 games  - 31 minutes, 12.4 points (55%), 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.9 blocks
Draft projection: Top 5 -  I have him as #2 in my mock draft.
NBA Position: Small Forward

And the mystery player is.............
By now you must have guessed that my number 2 pick in the 2011 draft is Perry Jones. I was finally able to see a couple Baylor games on TV and based on my previous notes, and some research, I'm still convinced he'll make a great Professional. I prefer to make such statements based on actual College production and generally don't like to make predictions based solely on upside - but if there's one thing that's keeping me from putting him ahead of Terrence Jones in the #1 spot is the fact that Perry has not had the production that Terrance has. Perry had a couple good games against Morgan State (17/7) and Texas Tech (20/6) but also put up zero points and zero rebounds in a poor effort against Texas Southern. 

And here is the biggest negative against Perry Jones in my mind - he just does not dominate like a top player should. One game it looks like he's getting close to breaking out, and the next he looks passive and doesn't do much. Even within games, he'll show an incredible flash of brilliance for a short stretch, then disappear for the rest of the half. I'm convinced that the reason he is not dominating in College is the fact that he's playing out of position.

Is he still a good NBA prospect? Oh brother.... he's got tremendous potential. He's quite possibly the most talented player in the draft. He could also be the player with the most upside.  Most mock drafts I've seen list Perry Jones as the #1 prospect (NBADraft.net ; ESPN ; mynbadraft.com ) - not because of his current production, but based on his upside. Everyone here knows how much NBA General Managers love upside. We'll explore his attributes and skills after the jump.

Continue reading this post »