SB Nation User Blog: Rook6980

Is there a plan?

Rook6980 — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:58:54 -0000

Am I being too pessimistic?

I loved the trade for Foye and Miller. I thought it was a good start to the off-season. Ernie addressed several weaknesses; specifically backup PG, and 3-point shooting. In Miller and Foye, he added a couple of really good catch-and-shoot guys - perfect for the Flip Saunders style Offense - and a perfect fit for the driving Arenas. Miller can play multiple positions, is an excellent rebounder and a very good passer. Foye has been mis-used most of his career. He's very good playing off the ball, but can create shots for himself and teammates as well. A true combo-guard. Both Miller and Foye will benefit by playing in Flip Saunder's match-up zone defense; where their weaknesses as individual defenders can be alleviated by the scheme.

Getting rid of Etan Thomas and Oleksiy Pecherov cleared the roster of dead weight. Although losing Songaila was a difficult pill to swallow ; in every trade you have to give up something of value. The 5th pick and D-Song for Miller and Foye seems like a steal to me.

Then Ricky Rubio fell to the 5th spot - and at first, after I could breathe again, I thought Ernie made a mistake trading the 5th pick so early. Why didn't he wait until draft night to see who would be available? I mean, Rubio is the second best player in the draft.... by a wide margin, right? That's what everyone said. I went through draft night with several different emotions having a tug-of-war with my fan-spirit. I've come to a realization of sorts about Rubio. Yeah, that kid is going to be great in my opinion. Five years from now, Wizards fans will be looking back on this draft and saying "boy, if only Ernie had kept that 5th pick and drafted Rubio". Similar to what some Wizards fans are saying about Devin Harris now. But five years is a long time to wait - Abe probably doesn't have that long. The roster that's been assembled doesn't have that long. Waiting for Rubio to develop is the wrong approach. The Wizards need to "win now".

They're going "all in" for the next couple of seasons to see if this core can compete. Ok, I get it. So that's why they didn't take a flier on DeJuan Blair. Even though Blair seemingly has some tools the Wizards need, and even though the trade made the Wizards roster unbalanced - and the roster is now light on big men (or rather, they have a few light big men). Drafting Blair and hoping he could develop quickly and contribute right away was probably a pipe dream. So I soothed my ruffled fan feelings by telling myself that by selling the pick for $2.5 Million dollars, Grunfeld has set himself up to spend a little more on the Free Agent market. That $2.5 Million can offset some of the Luxury Tax that the Wizards will have to pay when they acquire that quality big man with the MLE. Right?

I had dreams of getting guys like Marcin Gortat, Zaza Pachulia, or Drew Gooden. Any of those guys would improve the Wizard's talent level and depth. There were other names like Antonio McDyess - a defensive and rebounding specialist with a sweet 15-foot shot. Or Shelden Williams - a solid, strong physical defender that is an excellent rebounder and can block some shots. They're not in the Ron Artest, David Lee or Paul Millsap range of talent - but still good enough to raise the team's talent; Push guys like Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee back a bit in the rotation. Provide some veteran leadership and poise. Perhaps even enough of a talent influx to push the Wizards past Boston or maybe even past Orlando.

Now we hear that the Wizards will be playing it cool during this Free Agent signing period. Probably waiting until late summer to look at the remainining "talent". Talent that 30 other teams have passed over to this point; looking for someone to accept a veteran minimum contract for one year. Ernie did say he's looking for "someone that could come in occasionally and give us six to eight minutes." (Pecherov played 8.7 minutes in 35 games - is that what he's talking about?). That certainly doesn't sound like an "upgrade" to me, but rather more like a "scrub". A mop up guy. An injury insurance guy. I guess that also means that Grunfeld likes the depth that Blatche and McGee bring to the backup Center and PF positions.... and that there's not an upgrade out there that he likes better.

There's always the possibility of a trade involving Mike James' expiring contract and a combination of other "assets" (Stevenson, Nick Young, Critt); but considering the fact that they'll need to re-sign Haywood and either Miller or Foye next year, Ernie may want to keep that expiring contract to help with Cap and Tax issues.

Total committed salaries for next season are $56.6 Million for 9 players; that's assuming they tender a qualifying offer to Dominic McGuire and exercise team options on Javaris Crittenton and JaVale McGee (those are good assumptions). Brendan Haywood will probably require $9-10 Million to re-sign. That puts them at about $65.6 Million for 10 players - and they will need to sign at least three more to get to the League mandated 13 roster slots. If they sign two draft picks, or two vet minimum contracts, it would add about $2.5 Million. That puts their 2010-2011 salaries at about $68.1 Million. Even if we assume the Luxury Tax will increase to $73-$74 Million (from $71.15 Million in 2008-09), that still does not leave a lot of room to re-sign Foye or Miller.... So, unless there's some move to shed salary, it appears to me that the Wizards will be a Tax payer in 2010-11 as well.

So now I'm confused. Even with Foye and Miller, I don't think the Wizards have improved enough to contend for the Eastern Conference Title, much less contend for a Championship. As Brendan Haywood said, they're probably 4th best in the Conference. Ernie Grunfeld is NOT spending any of the MLE to improve the talent level on the team. Is he just waiting to see how this team develops and plays together? Will Ernie ever go "all in"? Are we waiting for something to happen next year? Are we trying to hover just under the Tax level and still hoping to compete?

Help me out everyone. Where are we headed?

Poll

Is Ernie's plan a good one?

So much for McDyess - Mikki Moore here we come. Yippee!

Rook6980 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:46:04 -0000

From Mike Jones and the Outlet

The Wizards were listed among possible suitors for Antonio McDyess, but sources with knowledge of the situation said although Washington would love to have McDyess on their roster, they know can't offer anything close to what other teams will offer him. The Wizards don't want to use the mid-level exception, because even if a player agreed to that ball-park figure of $5 million, Washington would be taxed equal that number and end up paying $10 million total. McDyess is a solid vet, but not worth $10 million as a 10-minute-a-game backup, which is what the Wizards are looking for.

So much for the ideal plan of making the basketball team better this year..... I guess it makes sense from a fiscal standpoint; but if the Wizards are going to wait until late Summer to add a big man, they'll be scraping the dregs from the bottom of the barrell.

Can you tell I'm psyched?

An interesting stat comparison

Rook6980 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:37:41 -0000

Stats aren't everything. Intangibles like character, leadership, work ethic, intelligence and decision making are just as important as "production".

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	FG%	3P%	FT%	STL	BLK	TO	PF	AST	PER	TS%
Player A	35.1	20.8	10.1	.475	.330	.734	.86	.32	2.28	2.66	2.1	19.72	53.1
Player B	38.2	22.2	8.9	.468	.351	.754	1.17	.31	1.54	2.69	1.9	20.63	54.9

Both players are 6'9" Power Forwards.

Despite being slightly undersized, and not the most athletic players, both get the job done.
Neither one plays very much defense. Neither one is much of a shot blocker or help defender.
Player A rebounded a bit better. Player B had a slightly lower TO rate.
Player A is 6 years younger than Player B

One player is a valuable asset - with trade value; is admired by his teammates and adored by fans.

The other, well let's just say that any team he played for was immediately trying to trade him.

Why Ricky Rubio could be BETTER than advertized

Rook6980 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:40:21 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

13 days ago: NBA commissioner David Stern, left, poses with Ricky Rubio, of Spain, after being picked fifth overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves during the first round of the NBA basketball draft, Thursday, June 25, 2009 in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Browse more photos »

It's the current fashion to point at failed European players and say - "Look, there is why Ricky Rubio will not be able to contribute."

"They" have trouble integrating their games into the NBA style. "They" take longer to develop than U.S. College players. "They" are more likely to be a bust than a star. "They" come over too young. "They" are too mechanical. "They" are soft. {edit} "They" are all hype. {edit}

Well if the First Law of Tim Duncan states that the more college basketball experience a player has, the more polished his skills are, the more seasoned his character is and the more prepared for NBA success he will be. - - - -

Then the Second Law should state that the more Professional Basketball experience a player has, in the top European Leagues, the more polished his skills will be, the more seasoned his character will be, and the more prepared for NBA success he will be than a college player.

To compare European players, we need to understand that all European Leagues not created equal.

The best Leagues, with the highest level talent are in Spain, Greece and Italy; followed closely by the Russian SuperLeague and the Serbian SuperLeague . Those leagues all contain talented players, and are considered better (talent wise) than the NCAA Division 1 College basketball system. Other Leagues, like Turkey and Lithuania are very good, but not quite at NCAA Division 1 Talent level. Then there's the French League, and followed by (in no particular order) Poland, Croatia, Portugal, Netherlands, UK, etc...

The top division of the Spanish League is called the ACB (Asociación de Clubs de Baloncesto). The Spanish league is rated as one of the three "A" level European domestic leagues in the ULEB League Rankings system. The other two top rated Leagues are Italian League A, and the Greek A1 League.

The reason for the EuroLeague lesson is to point out that players in the top divisions in Spain, Italy or Greece are playing against a higher level of talent than players in the NCAA, or other EuroLeague Countries.

Let's discect the the history of international players drafted in the Lottery, since 2003; and then try to compare their experience and talent level to Ricky Rubio. Nearly all the European Lottery picks, except Andris Biedrins, have been considered failures; or at least, have not lived up to expectations; and even Biedrins struggled for a couple of years, before putting it together.

Darko Milicic , 24 Years Old , Drafted in the 1st Round, Pick #2 in 2003 by the Pistons. An 18 year old player, taken with practically NO International experience. He played 2 years in the Serbian League (Serbia is a "B level" European basketball league).
European Awards:
2001 European Cadet Champion
2002 Under-20 World Champion

Mickael Pietrus , 27 Years Old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 11 in 2003 by Warriors. Made his Professional debut at 17 years old, playing for Pau-ORthez in the French Pro-A League (an "A Level" European basketball league). He played 4 years for Pau-Orthez before being drafted at 21 years old by the Golden State Warriors. Pietrus averaged 9.4 points in 24 minutes per game for Orlando last year.
European Awards: None?

Andris Biedrins , 23 Years Old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 11 in 2004 by the Warriors. Started playing Professionally at 16 years old for team BK Skonto in the Latvian Basketball League (LBL). He played 2 years in the LBL before being drafted as an 18 years old by the Warriors in 2004. Incredibly raw when he was drafted at 18 years old, with very little International experience (in a "B" level European basketball league); Biedrins took two years before starting to pay
dividends for the Warriors, and is just now, at 23, rounding into a solid NBA player. Biedrins averaged 11 points and 11 rebounds in 30 minutes per game last year.
European Awards: Latvian League Newcomer of the Year.

Fran Vazquez, 26 Years Old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 11 in 2005 by Magic - Currently plays for FC Barcelona in the ACB division of the Spanish League. Has never played in the NBA. 8 years experience in the EuroLeague and ACB. By the way, if this guy ever comes over to play for Orlando, he will be very good. A long, athletic 6'10" defensive stopper. He's an excellent rebounder and the best shot blocker in Spain. Not much of a shooter; he gets most of his points in transition and in the immediate basket area. He's quick enough to defend the pick-and-roll, and can step out and contest shooters. It appears however, that Vasques would rather be a big fish in a small pond, than swim in the big waters of the NBA.
European Awards: None?

Yaroslav Korolev , 22 Years Old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 12 in 2005 by Clippers - Played 1 year CSKA Moscow in the Russian Super League before being drafted at 18 years old by the Clippers. Played 2 seasons in the NBA for the Clippers and went back to CSKA Moscow after the 2007 season ended.
European Awards: None?

Andrea Bargnani, 23 Years Old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 1 in 2006 by Raptors, Played 3 years for Pallacanestro Treviso in the Italian Serie A League. Bargnani has played 3 years for the NBA Toronto Raptors, averaging 15.4 points and 5.2 rebounds in 31 minutes per game last year.
European Awards: Euroleague Rising Star Award 2005–06

Yi Jianlian, 24 years old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 6 in 2007 by Bucks. Played 4 years for Guangdong in the CBA (Chinese Basketball Association). Very little information is available about the level of talent in the CBA.
European Awards: Finals Most Valuable Player (MVP) honor in 2006

Danilo Gallinari, 20 Years Old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 6 in 2008 by Knicks. Started playing for Olimpia Milano in the Italian Serie A League in 2006. Played 2 years in the Italian Serie A League, before being drafted at 19 years old in 2008. Because of back problems, Gallinari only played 28 games for New York his Rookie season, averaging 6.1 points in 15 minutes per game.
European Awards: Italian league All Star Game 3-Point Shootout Champion 2007
Euroleague Rising Star Award 2007-08

Ricky Rubio , 18 years old , Drafted Rnd 1, Pick 5 in 2009 by Timberwolves. At 14 years old, Rubio started playing for DKV Joventut in the ACB division of the Spanish League (The ACB division is an "A" League European basketball league). Rubio has played 4 years for DKV Joventut, playing as many as 50 games per year (34 in the ACB division, and up to 16 in the EuroCup - compare that to a normal College schedule of 30 games, plus a handful of Conference or NCAA playoff games).
European Awards:
Won the bronze medal at the FIBA Europe Under-16 Championship (2005)
Won the gold medal at the FIBA Europe Under-16 Championship (2006)
FIBA Europe Under-16 Championship MVP (2006)
Won 3 Catalan National Leagues (2005, 2007, 2008)
Won the FIBA EuroCup Championship (2006)
Led the Spanish ACB League in steals (2007, 2009)
Won the Spanish ACB League Rising Star Award (2007)
2-Time FIBA European Young Player of the Year (2007, 2008)
Won the Spanish King's Cup (2008)
Won the ULEB Cup Championship (2008)
All-Spanish ACB League Team (2008)
Voted the Spanish ACB League's Best Point Guard (2008)
Mr. Europa European Player of the Year (2008)
Spanish ACB League Defensive Player of the Year (2009)
Named to the 2008 Spanish Olympic Team
Won the silver medal at the 2008 Olympics Basketball Tournament

One of the players drafted never even came over to play in the NBA (Vazquez). Some of the International players drafted recently, have had very little (2-years or less) actual Professional experience before they were drafted (Biedrins, Korolev, Milicic, Gallinari). Some of them played in lower level leagues, against inferior talent (Milicic, Biedrins, Yi Jianlian). Bargnani was just drafted too high.. had he been drafted in the 12-14 range, he would be
considered a draft "success".

So, to recap:

Milicic and Korolev - Both have to be considered busts. Both had practically no experience overseas before being drafted.

Mickael Pietrus - He is a rotation player, so I guess he could be considered a mild success. He played 3 years in a "B" Level league.

Andrea Bargnani - For where he was drafted (#1 overall in 2006) and considering that some players picked after him have had success (Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, etc..), Bargnani should be considered a disappointment. However, he still has some time to develop, and 15 points and 5 rebounds is NOT terrible. He had 3-years in the Italian League.

Yi Jianlian and Danilo Gallinari - It's too early to tell whether either will be a successful player or not.

Andris Biedrins - He should probably be considered a successful draft pick. Played 3 seasons in the Italian League ("A" level League)

I hope everyone sees that there's a pattern here. Players with more experience, in the tougher European Leagues, tend to be better players in the NBA.

Now let's compare that to Rubio's experience; FOUR years playing in the best league not called the National Basketball Association. He has played more than 135 Professional games. (The average Freshman one-and-done draftee probably played no more than 35 games, TOTAL). He's been named best Point Guard in his League; All-Spanish League (All-Star equivalent); Defensive Player of the Year; Won Championships; Won Tournaments; Won Olympic Silver. He was the youngest player to ever start an Olympic Finals.

Kobe Bryant said "He's played awesome, He alone changed the course of some games."
Chris Paul said "what he has already done is crazy! He is just 17 years old. I am 23 and have been 3 years in college and then 3 in the NBA to be able to play in the Olympics. He will come to the NBA to steal my job."
Dwyane Wade said "He's fast, he's young and he goes a hundred miles an hour, Plus, his ability to play at the Olympic level shows a lot of character. Right now he's playing off of sheer will. Once he gets to know the game a little better, he's going to be phenomenal."

And there are those out there that still doubt the kid.

2009 Unrestricted Free Agents - Who fits?

Rook6980 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 04:19:07 -0000

Obviously, the Wizards are going to have to do something about their unbalanced roster. With 7 Guards, 2 Small Forwards and only 4 Bigs, they're going to have to pick up another Center or Power Forward. I'd like to see them pick up BOTH another Center and another PF; preferably both veterans.

There are 3 ways to obtain the players the Wizards need:

They can either use Mike James' expiring contract, with other "asset(s)" if necessary; and trade for a player.
They could dip into the Free Agent market using the Mid Level Exception
A third option would be to pick up an un-drafted player (Josh Heytvelt, for instance).

Perhaps I'll look at the other options later, but I decided to look at the Unrestricted Free Agents and see if there's anyone that would fit.

What are we looking for? Well, I don't think that Offensive proficiency should be high on the list. The Wizards will have no trouble scoring points. They need someone that can come in for 15-20 minutes to spell Haywood, or Jamison. A bench guy. A role player. Someone that is an excellent rebounder. A veteran would be preferred. If the player is a good one-on-one defender as well as a Shot Blocker, that would be a plus. Ideally, since this player will be on the 2nd team, you'd like to see a smart player that can set screens, run the pick-and-roll / pick-and-pop game, and limit turn overs. In other words a better rebounding Darius Songaila.

After the jump, we'll go through the available options.

The Unrestricted Free Agent list is fairly long. More than 100 players. I needed to pare the list down to a manageable level. First, I removed all the Guards, and Small Forwards; after all, we're just looking for help in the front court.

Next, I removed guys that most likely will not be available in Free Agency. Guys like Eddy Curry, who has an Early Termination Option, but is scheduled to make over $10 Million next year if he stays in New York - and Al Harrington who has a Player's Option; if he stays in NY will make over $10 Million. Both players will be staying where they are; because they'll never get a better deal. Others in the same situation are Mark Blount, Brian Skinner, etc. On the other hand, Anderson Varejao has a Player Option for 2009-10, but he is expected to opt out; so he stays on the list.

I also removed guys like James Singleton (Dallas) who has a Team Option; assuming that their team will exercise that option. (I'd snap up Singleton in a heartbeat if Dallas lets him walk - but it won't happen).

I've also removed Shawn Marion, Carlos Boozer, Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace and Mehmet Okur. There will be lots of competition for their services - and all those guys will probably command more than the MLE; or will be re-signed by their clubs. Let's face it, the Wizards are just not going to be in the hunt for those guys.

Next, I removed the perpetually injured or out-of-shape. (Chris Mihm, Robert Swift and Jerome James). I also removed the players who have seen better days - the aging vets that just can't bring it any more. (Sorry Juwan Howard, Malik Rose, Calvin Booth, Donyell Marshall, Theo Ratliff and Jamaal Magloire).

Finally, I removed anyone who is considered a very poor defensive player or a poor rebounder - I mean, afterall, what are we looking for here? (Mikki Moore, Maceo Baston, Sean May, Melvin Ely, Stromile Swift, Raef LaFrentz, Jarron Collins, etc... are gone)

Here are the guys that are left. We'll start with the players that I think are worth a good chunk (if not all) of the MLE. However, let's just remember that if the Wizards tender a MLE offer (roughly $6 Million) to ANY player, at the end of a 5-year contract, that player will be making close to $8 Million. That's a lot to pay for a back-up. (See Etan Thomas in the dictionary of overpaid players).

Although I didn't find the "perfect" fit, there are a number of interesting and productive options:

Antonio McDyess-

PF 6'9" 245 lbs , 13-year veteran , Last Year: $600 K , Rebound Rate: 19.30 , R/40: 13.00 , TO Rate: 7.3 , PER 16.63

Best rebounder in this list with a 19.3 rebound rate. Smart player. Excellent team defender. His jumper is almost automatic from 15-feet. Low turn over rate. Even though he's 34, he should still be able to put up decent rebounding numbers because he's an excellent fundamental rebounder (excellent at boxing out, and using his position and strength). Very Steady mid-range shot. The Wizards could get McDyess for less than the MLE - depending on whether Detroit really wants to keep him or not. McDyess is very nearly a perfect fit.

Anderson Varejao-

C 6'11" 260 lbs. 5-year veteran , Last Year: $ 5.7 Million , Rebound Rate: 15.00 , R/40: 10.10 , TO Rate: 10.3 , PER: 14.62

Varejao has a Player Option for 2009-10, and he is expected to exercise that option and become an Unrestricted Free Agent. I personally feel that he's making a mistake. He will be leaving $6.2 Million on the table to pursue a bigger contract. I don't think he'll be able to get more than the Mid-Level Exception (roughly $6 Million).. If the Wizards are willing to take on a long-term contract (5-years), Varejao would be an excellent choice. (Plus, I'd love to see LeBron called for charging as Varejao, wearing a Wizards uniform, "flops"). He's an excellent defensive player. He's an intense player that plays with high energy (perfect for a 2nd unit). He's very good defending the pick-and-roll. Great at taking charges and an especially good rebounder on the defensive glass. Just don't pass him the ball on offense.

Chris (the Birdman) Andersen-

PF 6'10" 228 lbs. 7-year veteran , Last Year: $797 K , Rebound Rate: 17.60 , R/40: 12.10 , TO Rate: 14.6 , PER: 18.16

Extremely athletic. Exceptional shot blocker. Should garner lots of interest in Free Agency. Very good rebounder. A bit slender, so he gets pushed around by bigger PF's. Not much skill on the Offensive end; scoring mainly on put-backs, in transition and in the immediate basket area. Can he be signed? That's the real question. Andersen is adored by the fans in Denver; and the Organization would be crucified if they let Andersen walk. On the other hand, the numbers I've seen thrown around suggest that if the Wizards offered the full MLE, Denver might have a difficult time matching. Then the question becomes, would Chris Anderson actually leave Denver - after all, they gave him a chance to get back into the League last year.

Drew Gooden -

PF 6'10" 250 lbs , 7-year veteran , Last Year: $ 1.4 Million , Rebound Rate: 17.70 , R/40: 12.20 , PER: 16.59

Gooden is probably the best Offensive player on this list - a poor man's Carlos Boozer. Can hit the mid range shot - and is crafty around the basket. He's a very good rebounder. Gooden uses his quickness and size to grab boards. He's a better than average defender. Gooden became a bit inconsistent after his trade from Cleveland, and may just need a little normalcy after playing for 4 teams in the last 2 years. Gooden will probably want the full MLE with a 5-year commitment. Perhaps a bit too much for what he brings.

Zaza Pachulia

C 6'11" 275 lbs , 6-year veteran , Last Year: $4.0 Million , Rebound Rate: 17.40 , R/40: 11.80 , TO Rate: 16 , PER 14.14

Not an especially good defender; as his idea of defense is to foul (5.6 fouls per 40 minutes) - But at 7-feet and 275 lbs, he can certainly be physical and bang inside. On Offense, he likes to play from the high post - and sets good screens. Does not block shots. Pretty good rebounder. Can hit a mid-range jumper if left open.

Rasho Nesterovic

C 7'0" 255 lbs , 11-Year Veteran , Last Year: $ 8.4 Million , Rebound Rate: 10.90 , R/40: 7.90 , TO Rate: 10.1 , PER: 14.15

Good low post defender. Not very good defending the pick-and-roll. Will block some shots. Average rebounder. Low turn over guy. Can hit the 12-15 foot shot.

Shelden Williams

PF 6'9" 250 lbs , 3-Year Veteran , Last Year: $ 3.4 Million , Rebound Rate: 17.50 , R/40: 12.00 , PER: 13.78

Plays with high energy. Solid, strong physical defender. Excellent rebounder. Will block some shots. A real dud on Offense.

Chris Wilcox

PF 6'10" 235 lbs , 7-Year Veteran , Last Year: $ 6.7 Million , Rebound Rate: 15.00 , R/40: 10.60 , PER: 13.37

Wilcox is a pretty good rebounder, but not a very good defender. Struggles holding his position, and does not put forth much effort on the Defensive end - preferring to spend his energy dunking on the Offensive side of the ball. Outstanding finisher around the basket. Athleticism allows him to block a fair number of shots.

------

Now for the guys that the Wizards might be able to sign for the Veteran Minimum. I see one of these guys (or someone like them) sitting at the end of the bench; not in the rotation. On the squad simply as insurance against injury.

Joe Smith

PF 6'10" 225 lbs , 14-year Veteran , Last Year: $ 1.2 Million , Rebound Rate: 13.90 , R/40: 9.50 , TO Rate: 8.1 , PER: 13.85

Just an average rebounder. Not enough bulk to keep bigger players out of the lane. Excellent at taking a charge. Crafty veteran that does not make many mistakes. Very low turn over rate. Very good mid-range shooter.

Brandon Bass

PF 6'8" 250 lbs, 4-Year Veteran , Last Year: $826 K , Rebound Rate: 13.40 , R/40: 9.30 , TO Rate: 11.8 , PER: 16.49

OK defensive player. Average rebounder. Can shoot the mid-range jumper. Undersized.

Adonal Foyle

C 6'10" 270 lbs , 12-year veteran , Last Year: $797 K , Rebound Rate: 15.50 , R/40: 10.70 , PER: 9.74

Foye is an excellent low post defender - holding position well and rebounding at a decent clip. Not a shot blocker. Offensively, he just cannot shoot. Probably one of the worst Offensive players in the league, BESIDES the next guy.

Michael Ruffin

PF 6'8" 248 , 9-year veteran , Last Year: $797 K , Rebound Rate: 17.30 , R/40: 12.60 , TO Rate: 14.3 , PER: 12.02

Yes, yes I know. We already played this song. But Ruffin is a defense and rebounding specialist; exactly what the Wizards need sitting at the end of the bench. Offensively, he's a zero. Good team chemistry guy. Smart. Good rebound rate. Excellent fundamentals.

Alright everyone, tear it up.

Let me know where you think I've gone terribly wrong. Which players you like the best. Who should have made the list. Who should have been left off.

So - How much did the Wizards save with this trade?

Rook6980 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:24:33 -0000

Editor's Note: Rook's calculations assume the Wizards will NOT pick up Randy Foye's 2010/11 qualifying offer of 4.8 million, which doesn't seem like a realistic assumption to me. Of course, the Wizards could pick up the QO, watch someone else sign him and not match to save the listed money. -MP

It depends on how far out you go, as to how much the Wizards saved.... First, let's make a few assumptions.

1. Assume that Darius Songaila would pick up his Player Option for the 2010-11 season

2. Assume that the team would NOT pick up the Team Option on Pecherov for the 2010-11 season

3. Leave the Draft Pick's Team Options off the calculation

Outgoing Salaries:
Etan Thomas 2009-10: $7,350,000
Darius Songaila 2009-10: $4,526,000 2010-11: $4,818,000
Oleksiy Pecherov 2009-10: $1,547,640
Total Outgoing 2009-10 $13,423,640 2010-11: $4,818,000

5th pick 2009-10: $2,636,400 2010-11: $2,834,200

Total 2009-10: $16,060,040 Total 2010-11: $7,652,200

Incoming Salaries:
Mike Miller $9,750,000
Randy Foye $3,575,761
Total Incoming 2009-10: $13,325,761

Savings 2009-10 = $2,734,279
Savings 2010-11 = $7,652,200
Total Savings = $10,386,479

What about the 2nd Round? (Adjusted for the recent trade)

Rook6980 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:42:56 -0000

What if the Wizards trade up into the late 1st round; or keep their 32nd pick and draft a player. I've expanded my write up to include prospects from mid-20 picks through late 30's.

Ok - so here's the next batch - adjusted to account for the Wednesday trade. I've include only big men...

Ok - so I cheated. I kept Hansborough..... (I really think he could help the Wizards this year)

Tyler Hansborough - 6'9" 230 PF (20,12,20)
There's been talk about Hansborough going in the top 15, but I don't think he belongs there. In this draft, he's probably a Low to Mid-20's pick. If the Wizards trade down in the draft, he may be available. If he slips past Utah at 20, he may free-fall into the high 30's, and they could get him with the 2nd Round pick.

There were those who were worried that Hansborough was too short to play PF in the NBA, he measured out bigger than most people thought at the NBA Combine in Chicago. At 6'8.5" without shoes, and 6'9.5" with shoes, he'll do fine. He's got a 6'11.5" wingspan and a 8'10" standing reach. He's also a better athlete than originally thought. He's a tough, physical player that likes to throw his body around in the paint - but he can step out and stroke the mid-range jumper too. He shows good form and excellent touch on his jumper. He's also a very good Free Throw shooter. Hansborough has been a very good rebounder throughout his College career - relying upon fundamentals (position, blocking out) rather than athleticism. Those skills should translate well to the NBA.

Hansborough is a Senior, and therefore very experienced. He's fundamentally sound and has all the intangibles (High Basketball IQ, good work ethic, agressive, competitive, has a winning mentality from a winning program). He should be able to step in and help a team right away. His experience is also partially considered one of his weaknesses. There's not much upside here. What you see from Hansborough his first NBA practice will be what you'll get for the most part. There are questions whether he can defend NBA Power Forwards. He also needs to work on his ball handling - and his decision making when passing out of double-teams.

All-in-all, Hansborough will be a solid, if not spectacular Pro.

Josh Heytvelt - 6'11" 260 PF (39, ??,42)
Another Senior. Unfortunately, Hytvelt is not as experienced as some of the other Seniors in this draft because he has had foot injuries and off-court issues. I only saw 3 Gonzaga games, so my knowledge base on Hytvelt is limited. What struck me was that I expected to see this big lumbering guy, but instead I saw a very athletic player. He can get up with the best of them (34 inch vertical); combined that with his excellent length (9'0" standing reach) and the tools are there. Heytvelt showed a nice touch from mid-range and the ability to finish strong around the basket - usually with a forceful dunk. Hytvelt looked to be a pretty good rebounder. He didn't block any shots while I was watching, but I would think he has that ability, based on his leaping ability and length.

He's not much of a passer, having difficulties passing out of double-teams; and had trouble sometimes keeping his man from backing him down. Didn't seem to be a very good defender. He needs to work on his advanced post moves... as the only thing I saw him do consistently was a turn around jumper.

Hytvelt has some upside, especially if he can continue to regain the athleticism he lost after the injuries in his Sophomore year.

Jon Brockman - 6'8" 255 PF (39,53,36)
Wide body. Strong. Double-double machine in College.
Blue-collar work ethic. I'd love to see him going up against Blatche every day in practice. Jon would show Andray what it's like to work hard. Only 6'7" without shoes, and with a pathetic 6'7" wingspan, Jon comes up short on the Physical and athletic scale. He can't make up for it with talent, so he just out-works everyone else. That tremendous work ethic is good enough to allow a poor athlete with little natural talent to make it all the way to the NBA. He WILL be drafted by someone; and I would not be surprised if he has a long and productive career.. (Jerry Sloan would love this guy).

Jeff Pendergraph - 6'10" 240 PF (40,40,34)
Like the other big men in the 2nd round of this year's draft, Jeff Pendergraph is big and experienced. Another Senior that played for a full 4 years. He's got good size for the PF position; but only average athleticism.

Pendergraph is a very efficient Offensive player, shooting 66% in his Senior year. A decent but not stellar rebounder, he'll also block the occasional shot. He finishes extremely well around the basket, and he sets great screens. Good at the pick-and-roll game, but needs work on his shot to play the pick-and-pop. Actually, he needs a lot of work on his face up game overall. Like most of the rest of the Seniors, there's not a lot of upside for Pendergraph.

Vladimir Veremeenko - 6'10" 240 PF (Unics Kazan)
Remember him? Veremeenko was drafted by the Wizards in the 2nd Round in 2006; the Same draft that saw the Wizards take Pecherov with the 1st Round selection. He looked lost last year in Summer League... and ended up going back to Europe. Perhaps one of the potential fixes for the Wizard's unbalanced roster is to bring Veremeenko over for the Rookie minimum salary; just as an insurance policy against injury. If he's still a bit raw, they could ship him off to the D-League Wizards for seasoning and additional Coaching.

Vladimir Veremeenko was playing for Khimki in the EuroLeague, and was trapped behind some veteran big men on that team. This year, he moved to the Unics club for the 2008-09 season, and earned the starting Power Forward job. He apparently relished the additional responsibility, as well as the added playing time. Veremeenko averaged 12 points, while making 61% of his 2-point shots and 45.5% of his 3-point shots. In addition he averaged 8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game; while helping his team make the final 16 of the EuroLeague playoffs.

Good size and frame for the PF position. Excellent skills (ball handling, shooting, passing). Has the frame to add bulk and strength. Excellent mid-range shooter. Excellent fundamental rebounder. Has improved his athleticism since the Wizard's drafted him. This guy is NOT just another soft Euro player - he likes to mix it up inside.

What about the 2nd Round?

Rook6980 — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:58:56 -0000

With all the focus on the Wizards 5th pick, we might forget that they also have a 2nd round pick. The 32nd overall - and a nice place to potentially pick up a role player; or a back up; or maybe a sleeper with tremendous upside.

When Mike Prada asked me to do a write up of second-round prospects (presumably for the Wizard's second round pick at 32), I originally thought it would be easy enough. I have dozens and dozens of hours of DVD recordings I watched from College games last year. There can't be but 4 or 5 players the Wizards would be interested in........

Uh... Then I thought, what if the Wizards trade down into the late 1st round; one of the likely scenarios I've heard bandied about recently. So, I'll expand my write up from mid-20 picks through late 30's. Well, depending on the mock draft site you look at, that could be as many as 25 or 30 players; so I decided to just look at some of the most interesting prospects, from the Wizard's perspective.

The prospects are listed in order, with my favorite followed by my next favorite, and so on. Next to each prospect's name, I've listed their height (in shoes), weight and their mock draft ranking at DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and ESPN respectively.

The first 5 prospects begin after the jump. As I have the time, I'll post the next batch.

Tyler Hansborough - 6'9" 230 PF (20,12,20)
There's been talk about Hansborough going in the top 15, but I don't think he belongs there. In this draft, he's probably a Low to Mid-20's pick. If the Wizards trade down in the draft, he may be available. If he slips past Utah at 20, he may free-fall into the high 30's, and they could get him with the 2nd Round pick.

There were those who were worried that Hansborough was too short to play PF in the NBA, he measured out bigger than most people thought at the NBA Combine in Chicago. At 6'8.5" without shoes, and 6'9.5" with shoes, he'll do fine. He's got a 6'11.5" wingspan and a 8'10" standing reach. He's also a better athlete than originally thought. He's a tough, physical player that likes to throw his body around in the paint - but he can step out and stroke the mid-range jumper too. He shows good form and excellent touch on his jump shot. He's also a very good Free Throw shooter. Hansborough has been a very good rebounder throughout his College career - relying upon fundamentals like positioning and blocking out (hear that Andray?) rather than athleticism. Those skills should translate well to the NBA.

Hansborough is a Senior, and therefore very experienced. He's fundamentally sound and has all the intangibles (High Basketball IQ, good work ethic, agressive, competitive, has a winning mentality from a winning program). He should be able to step in and help a team right away. His experience is also sometimes considered one of his weaknesses. There's not much upside here. What you see from Hansborough his first NBA practice will be what you'll get for the most part. There are questions whether he can defend NBA Power Forwards. He also needs to work on his ball handling - and his decision making when passing out of double-teams.

All-in-all, Hansborough will be a solid, if not spectacular Pro.

Darren Collison - 6'2" 165 PG (24,34,29)
Collison was a player I was extremely high on last year. He was overshadowed last year by Russell Westbrook (the 4th pick in last year's draft), and he decided to go back to UCLA for another year. Unfortunately, he was overshadowed again - this time by Jrue Holiday, who is expected to be selected in the top-10. Through it all, Collison has remained steady, consistent and productive at UCLA. He's extremely fast from one end of the court to the other. A real end-to-end blur. In addition, he's very quick; especially laterally, and he's got great hands. Collison is the best defensive Point Guard in the Draft. A real lock-down man-to-man defender; he brings an intensity and aggressiveness to the defensive side of the ball.

Collison is an excellent ball-handler with both hands. He can penetrate in either direction, making him hard to defend. He has a good jump shot, especially off the dribble or on the pick-and-roll. He's not as good as a spot-up shooter. He should be able to extend his range past the NBA 3-point line, but I wouldn't expect that his Rookie year. Another guy with all the intangibles (High basketball IQ, good work ethic, a winner, poised, experienced in big games).

Obviously, at 6'2" (in shoes) and 165, Collison lacks the ideal body type. Bigger Point Guards may be able to post him up. His lack of size and strength will make fighting through screens difficult; and he may have trouble finishing at the rim. Like Hansborough, Collison does not have a tremendous upside. His ceiling is probably as a back-up/rotation player.

Overall, Collison would be a perfect back-up Point Guard behind Arenas. With his speed, he can change the pace of the game. Defensively, he can guard those pesky, quick Guards that give the Wizards so much trouble.

Danny Green - 6'6" 210 SG/SF (44,45,39)
If you watched any North Carolina Tar Heels games this year, then you probably know who Danny Green is. He was the guy that guarded the other team's best player. Green is the best perimeter defender in the Draft. He's a tough, in-your-face defender. He can be the REAL "locksmith" (to borrow DeShawn Stevenson's moniker). Physically, Green has a lot of tools. 6'6.5 with shoes, he's got a 6'10" wingspan. His max vertical is only 33 inches; but he has tremendous timing and good reach - so he gets a lot of blocked shots in one-on-one situations.

On Offense, Green moves well without the ball, and has improved his jump shot (47%). He is especially good in spot up (catch-and-shoot) situations. He had good range in College, and should be able to extend and shoot a good percentage from the NBA 3-point line. He's a fundamentally sound player. He limits his Turn Overs; and he's an excellent Free Throw shooter (85%). He's also a very good passer (4.0 assists per 40) playing off the ball.

Like some of the other players on this list, Green has a limited upside. He has difficulty creating his own shot, and he doesn't drive to the basket much - as evidenced by his low Free Throw attempts (1.6 per game)

Green is one of the underrated talents in this draft. As you can see from his mock draft rankings, most have him going in the late 2nd round. If read Mike Prada's article on the ideal back court mate for Arenas, Green checks all the boxes. He can defend the perimeter. He has good size. He's a good spot-up shooter, and a good passer. If he can play SG in the NBA, he'll have a productive career.

Chase Budinger - 6'7" 206 SG/SF (25,22,25)
I watched a lot of Arizona basketball. Mostly thinking that the Wizards would be drafting Jordan Hill. The more I watched Hill, the less I liked him - but the more Arizona games I watched, the more I noticed I was paying attention to Chase Budinger. This is another guy with tremendous size and athletic ability. Budinger is a former beach volleyball player with an elite vertical (39"). I could see him winning the NBA Slam Dunk contest next year. Budinger was a very highly recruited High School player. Ranked 7th in his graduating class; a class that includes Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Brook and Robin Lopez, Mike Conley and D.J. Augustin. Budinger has not progressed statistically as much as expected in his 3-years at Arizona; but it may be due to the system, rather than the player. Although he has not advanced statistically, his game has become more controlled, more efficient and more versatile.

Offensively, Budinger has perfect form on his jump shot. He gets great height, and releases the ball high over his head with a beautiful arc. His shot is almost never blocked. Someone should make an instructional video using Budinger: "How to shoot a basketball". He made 53% of his 2-point shots and 40% of his 3-pointers. But Budinger is not just a jump shooter. He can slash to the basket; where he uses his explosive leaping ability to finish at the rim. He's also a threat on the alley-oop. He's fundamentally sound - and an above average passer (3.4 assists per 40).

So, he sounds perfect right? Well, uh... No. There's another side of the court. Defensively, Chase Budinger is not very good. He can't seem to stay in front of his man. Although he's athletic, he's not very long (6'7" wingspan). Pair that with his lack of quickness, and he becomes a defensive liability. In addition, at least defensively, the dreaded "s" word has been thrown around.... (soft). Budinger needs to get mentally tougher, physically stronger and fundamentaly sound-er.

With tons of experience and a good basketball IQ (and that beautiful shot); Chase Budinger could be a real weapon off the bench for the Wizards; but someone will have to "Coach him up", so he doesn't "stink it up" on the Defensive side of the court.

Patrick Mills - 6'0" 175 PG (32*,37,32*)
There weren't a lot of Saint Mary's games on television, so I was limited to watching Patrick Mills in the Olympics, where he played for the Australian National Team. Mills is an absolute speed demon. Extraordinarily quick, with great ball handling skills with either hand, he gave even Chris Paul of the U.S. team fits trying to stay in front of him. I think he scored 20 in the game against the U.S.

Mills showed an ability to create shots... all kind of shots; both for him and his teammates. That's probably the most valuable skill that a Point Guard can have. Despite his size, he was very aggressive driving to the basket. Sometimes, able to finish at the rim (even with shot blockers like Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh lurking) - and other times dishing off to open teammates. In the otherHe showed an accurate jump shot; even if it looked a bit awkward at times; and he should be able to extend beyond the NBA 3-point line.

On the defensive end, Chris Paul seemed to be able to get around Mills at will... Of course, it's Chris Paul! But it does bring up the question of Mills' defensive abilities. The only other thing that I could count as a weakness is his size. At 6-foot nothing, and 175 pounds, he will be at a disadvantage in the NBA against bigger PG's.

Like Darren Collison above, I think Patrick Mills would be a good back-up Point Guard behind Arenas. ESPN says he's like a poor man's Tony Parker, but I say think Dee Brown, but with a better, more reliable jump shot.

* Both DraftExpress and ESPN have the Wizards taking Patrick Mills.

Javale Mcgee just showing the world that hes not being a couch potato and is in the gym trying to...

Rook6980 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:30:21 -0000

Javale Mcgee just showing the world that hes not being a couch potato and is in the gym trying to get better stronger faster and better for himself, his team, and the fans of the Washington Wizards.....

Shaq to the Cavaliers?

Rook6980 — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 17:48:28 -0000

Shaq to the Cavaliers?

Not good news for our Wizards if this happens.

Shaq is just the kind of inside presence that Cleveland needs.... and with Ilgauskas already there, Shaq wouldn't have to play a ton of minutes.

Seems to me to be a direct response by Cleveland to losing in the Conference Finals to Dwight Howard and the Magic.