SB Nation User Blog: Rox Girl

Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies return home for 5-0 win, Diamondbacks still expected to arrive to play sometime later

Rox Girl — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:37:35 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

about 7 hours ago: Colorado Rockies' Dexter Fowler, center, is congratulated after scoring on a throwing error after his RBI-double against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fifth inning of a baseball game in Denver on Friday, July 3, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The contrast at Coors Field Friday night was pretty stark: one team with a purpose and a will to compete, the other looking like it just arrived for the Cactus League opener. Colorado Rockies fans will be grateful that their's was the team ready to play, and they took advantage of a gem of a performance from starter Jorge De La Rosa and several costly defensive miscues by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the course of winning 5-0. Ian Stewart hit his team leading 14th homerun, Todd Helton continued his remarkable return to form season with his 492nd career double, and Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta each had two hits, but what stood out was the complete breakdown of fundamental play by the opposition. I think the Rockies would have won anyway the way De La Rosa was pitching, but it would be nice to give them no doubt of that fact.

42 - 37

Games Back: 8

Streak: Won 1

Games Left: 83

The standings after everything plays out tonight (with the Giants and Dodgers winning easily so far) will likely not result in much of a shift, but I think us Rockies fans, so unused to winning this time of year, should recognize that the season's not even half over still. Be glad for where the team is at, playing at a high level and in a solid position to compete, that's more important right now than who's where on the wildcard totem pole. The team improves to 1-1 in the month of July and I'd like to see another run for twenty before things get trickier in August and September.

Go Rockies!

via www.fangraphs.com

Rowbot Roll Call: TuLoRocks2008, befizzle, wtnelson, FooMan, WolfMarauder, fantasyfencing, Rox Girl, holly96, rockhead, ALrockies, Mondogarage, jrockies, butterfly, indianrox, kishi, roxbombers, Narcoleptico, walkoff59, Shoemaker, Maris6161, ejskater, Since1993, theshiva, Russ, Charlie77, Roxfan24

Game #79: Maxwell M. Scherzer vs. Jorge Alberto (Gonzalez) de la Rosa

Rox Girl — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 21:34:32 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

I think we win the battle of best replacement manager...

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M.M..S.

vs.

J.A.(G.)d.l.R.

I think we win the battle of best looking starting pitcher initials....

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	50	29	.632	0	Won 1
San Francisco	42	36	.538	7.5	Lost 2
Colorado	41	37	.525	8.5	Lost 1
San Diego	34	44	.435	15.5	Lost 2
Arizona	31	48	.392	19	Lost 2

(updated 7.3.2009 at 6:05 PM EDT)

I think we win the battle of best record...

Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies
Felipe Lopez - 2B	Dexter Fowler - CF
Ryan Roberts - 3B	Clint Barmes - 2B
Justin Upton - RF	Todd Helton - 1B
Mark Reynolds - 1B	Brad Hawpe - RF
Gerardo Parra - LF	Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Chris Young - CF	Ian Stewart - 3B
Luke Carlin - C	Chris Iannetta - C
Augie Ojeda - SS	Carlos Gonzalez - LF
Max Scherzer - P	Jorge De La Rosa - P

Lineup

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

07/03/09 6:10 PM MDT

Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies

Felipe Lopez - 2B Dexter Fowler - CF

Ryan Roberts - 3B Clint Barmes - 2B

Justin Upton - RF Todd Helton - 1B

Mark Reynolds - 1B Brad Hawpe - RF

Gerardo Parra - LF Troy Tulowitzki - SS

Chris Young - CF Ian Stewart - 3B

Luke Carlin - C Chris Iannetta - C

Augie Ojeda - SS Carlos Gonzalez - LF

Max Scherzer - P Jorge De La Rosa - P

I think we win the battle of the best starting lineup...

Let's win the battle on the field tonight!

Go Rockies!

Jorge Arangure Tweets: Rosmel Herrera to Rockies for $550,000

Rox Girl — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 21:50:59 -0000

Jorge Arangure Tweets: Rosmel Herrera to Rockies for $550,000

Herrera's pretty much been tied to the Rockies all along. Most scouting reports indicate he'll move to the outfield eventually, but he's got a bat that can play there.

Friday Pebble Report: Franklin Morales solid, maybe, Chaz Roe and Drillers pen spectacular, and other teams and players did stuff

Rox Girl — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:03:06 -0000

Colorado Springs: W 4-2

One big note on the PCL this season to remember: Offenses are mostly terrible. When John Bowker is the leading vote getter for the All-Star game, you have to figure something's up. Basically it's a lower class of AAAA player that seems to be roaming about. You don't have Terry Tiffee or Micah Hoffpauir or several of the other big threats that pitchers had to face last season. As a result, scoring's off almost half a run a game and it's likely that the Sky Sox themselves have the best collection of AAAA hitters this season with Murton and Ortmeier and McCoy and what have you. So basically what I'm saying is that we get reports of pitchers doing relatively well there, and I just don't know how far to trust them. This goes for Sky Sox pitchers as well as those of opponents.

Enter Franklin Morales, who pitched 5.1 innings last night allowing two runs, both off solo home runs, on six hits while striking out five and walking two. Howie Kendrick didn't hit either of those HR's and he's the big legitimate threat on the Salt Lake roster. So Morales gave up the big knocks to light hitting infield scrubs. He allowed other traffic but worked through it. He did limit Kendrick to relatively weak contact, three GB's, one which found a hole for a single, but I just don't know if I'm signing off on this being a good start for Frankie. Really, I know some people are eager to replace JDLR with him, but look carefully please before making that decision.

A pretty decent hitting infield scrub, and part of that premium AAAA collection we have down there, Mark Bellhorn, hit two home runs himself for the Sky Sox.

Tulsa: W 2-0

Chaz Roe was limited to 75 pitches, and got through five innings with them, allowing just two hits, two walks and he struck out six. In three starts since returning from the disabled list on June 19, Roe has pitched 15 scoreless innings allowing 14 hits with an 11/2 K/BB ratio. While lucky to some degree in that stretch, he's definitely looking like the pitcher we've long been waiting for. Let's stay cautiously optimistic and see where he goes from here.

Cole Garner's solo HR (7th on the season) in the second provided all the scoring that was needed, but Anthony Jackson, who went three for three with a walk, added one more in the sixth. Four Drillers relievers added an inning apiece in the shutout, as Edgmer Escalona picked up his first save by pitching a scoreless ninth. His five scoreless innings since his call-up from Modesto isn't quite as impressive as Roe, but nice to see nonetheless.

Modesto: W 8-7

Hector Gomez would be one of those other players that did stuff, some serious stuff, and if I was picky about my SEO, I'd have been wise to try and figure out a way to get his name in the title, but sometimes I just get rebellious. A little, I mean I did put Morales and Roe's name there after all.

At any rate, Gomez had another great game going four for five and leading the Nuts to a comeback victory over Bakersfield. Down seven to five in the seventh, he doubled home Rhadames Nazario and later scored the tying run on a double steal breaking for home from third after the Blaze catcher committed to trying to stop Lars Davis from nabbing second. He doubled again to lead off the ninth and scored the winning run on a two out Davis walk-off single. I believe that's the second walk-off hit this year for Davis, he's becoming quite the master of clutch out there. You'll also note from the ModBee recap that he's great with fans.

Asheville: L 3-4

Parker Frazier picked up the loss to drop to 4-6 on the season, but it was a deep, somewhat encouraging start from him. He went six and two thirds, allowing seven hits and a pair of walks as well as the four runs. Jordan Pacheco, Kiel Roling and Ryan Peisel each had two hits, but most of the other Tourists were cold at the plate.

Tri-City: W 6-5

Sometimes lately it seems like the Dust-Devils are just toying with their opponents, allowing them to get ahead just far enough to feel good about themselves before smacking them back down to reality. Or maybe they're looking for a challenge, like "let's be trailing by three runs in the bottom of the ninth and see if we can score four off this team's closer..."

A Bo Bowman two run single in the bottom of the ninth capped off the four run rally for the D-Devils that saw them also score on an HBP and have a batter reach via error, so just so you know I'm kidding about thinking they actually might have planned this.., I think. Orlando Sandoval hit a two run home run early to put them in the position to rally, and the relief efforts Josh Hungerman, Eric Federico and Rod Scurry kept them in the game after a rough start by Brad McAtee. Ooh, I just remembered that there was a Josh Hungerman article I was meaning to link last month when he signed. I can't remember if I did or not.

Other D-Devils news:

The recap of Wednesday's game at the Tri-City Herald talks to Mashin' Mike Zuanich, as well as mentioning that Scott Beerer's still out with a hip flexor issue.

There's also an article about pitcher Dan Perkins at Delaware Online, who among other things noted apparently pitched against current Dust Devils roommate Rhett Ballard while attending Delaware State.

Casper: Postponed

BtB - Jason Hammel finds control with Rockies

Rox Girl — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:28:20 -0000

BtB - Jason Hammel finds control with Rockies

Tommy Rancel writes that Jason Hammel's success with the Rockies looks legit right now.

Rockies trade Jeff Baker to Cubs for minor league pitcher Alberto Alburquerque

Rox Girl — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:15:55 -0000

Jeff Baker

#10 / Second Base / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jun 21, 1981

According to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago, the Rockies have sent infielder Jeff Baker to the Chicago Cubs for 23 year old RHP Alberto Alburquerque. Baker's been a stalwart on the bench for the Rockies the last few seasons, but had his playing time cut with the emergence of Ian Stewart. The Cubs have been searching for some offensive pop to revive a moribund offense until Aramis Ramirez returns from the disabled list and Baker fits the bill. The Rockies had to make a move with Baker with him set to come off the DL himself.

Not a lot is known about Alburquerque at this point, but he does generate high groundball rates (56% this season at high A Daytona) and some strikeouts, both of which will serve him well at Coors Field, should he make it to the Rockies.

Alburquerque's First Inning Page

I really hate spelling that name. Why couldn't we have traded for Lance Las Cruces, or Trudy Truth (and Consequences)?

Patrick Saunders confirms with Baker, who says he's looking forward to the opportunity.

UPDATE:

Cubs fan toonsterwu from BleedCubbieBlue provides a bit of scouting info on Alburquerque in the comments:

has a good live low-mid 90’s fastball, a solid slider I believe, and a decent change. His stuff has gotten better, and he’s improved his control a bit. While I think he’s a pen arm, I hope he gets a shot to try the rotation a bit, as I’m curious how it plays.

It looks like the fastball's a two seamer from the GB rates, so a low to mid 90's FB with a slider is a prototypical bullpen arm, and the kind of pitcher the Rockies have been targeting for some time now.

And Jack Etkin gives us more information:

Alburquerque, who is 6 feet and 180 pounds, has a plus, plus fastball. He'll sit at 95 mph with the pitch, which ranges from 92-97 mph and has good sinking action, runs in on right-handed hitters and has enough of a downhill plane.

And has an even more detailed scouting report at the link. This dispels the two seam notion I had before, because there's more than a semantic difference between "FB with sinking action and downhill plane" and "sinker".

Thursday Rockpile: Jeff Baker traded, does Atkins move next? July 2 could be more busy for Rockies than usual

Rox Girl — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:15:59 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

The Rockies are getting closer, but still no cigar when it comes to beating Los Angeles.

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The Rockies have dealt one third baseman already this morning, could another be not too far behind? Rumors around Garrett Atkins have been heating up of late, Seattle Mariners reporter Geoff Baker (no relation to our Jeff) looks at him as a possible fit there. I don't think Atkins gets moved right away, especially with Ian Stewart slumping somewhat, but I'm not that sure Garrett stays past the July deadline, either. It will be interesting to see how this month plays out.

International signing starts today

July 2 marks the start of the international free agency signing period, and while the Rockies aren't usually active until later (they make a killing this way, picking up players like Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, Wilin Rosario and others) they may actually break from tradition and make a move or two today.

Of the top 25 projected bonuses to be handed out this year, two are connected with the Rockies, Rosel Herrera and Johendi Jiminian and both could be July 2 signees. Baseball America subscribers can read scouting reports of the pair here. The Rockies were in earlier on LHP Victor Payano, but he's believed to have a deal in place with the Red Sox. Baseball Prospectus' Kiley McDaniel, ESPN's Jorge Arangure, and Baseball America's Ben Badler are all covering the day in tweets and at their various sites. Keep an eye open for news on these players, I think all three sites require some sort of paid subscription for the best news, but the tweets are free.

Baseball Prospectus

ESPN (Insider subscription required)

Baseball America

Baseball America also has a blog post (meaning no subscription needed) about Brandon Hynick's perfect game Tuesday night.

Tuesday Pebble Report: Got relief help? Some arms to think about for this year and beyond

Rox Girl — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:18:14 -0000

So you've watched the team. You've read this morning's Rockpile. You know that what the Rockies lack right now is quality bullpen arms. For today's Pebble Report we're going to look at all the pitchers in the context of how they could help the Rockies pen. I know it's probably ridiculous for the Casper and Tri-City arms, but it might prove a fun exercise.

Colorado Springs: 6-7 (suspended-wet grounds)

Only 10 of 13 runs in this half finished game count as earned runs, but there are only three errors. Two of those have been committed by Eric Young Jr. At any rate, the pitcher for the Sky Sox has been Adam Eaton, who still has a sparkling 1.50 ERA that's a bit less deserved in light of the eight hits, walk, and two HBP's, not to mention seven runs, he gave up in five innings. But this blow-up notwithstanding, could Eaton be a help to the Rockies bullpen?

Last season Eaton had two relief appearances with the Phillies, neither of which went well, even by Eaton standards over the last two and a half seasons. Drummed out of Philadelphia, Eaton went to Baltimore, where he would be facing those easier AL East lineups. The results were predictable to everybody save the Orioles front office, apparently. Now Eaton's pitching relatively well outside of last night with the Sky Sox. The Rockies are seemingly using him as Josh Fogg insurance, but with Fogg being one of our few somewhat reliable spots in the pen, could the team instead use him as a plan B to Rincon until we get other guys back from injury rehab? Let's just dangle it out there as a possibility, but frankly, I'm more intrigued about the arms were going to talk about in Tulsa.

Tulsa: W 6-1

I've always viewed Samuel Deduno as most likely to be an asset that comes out of relief for a MLB team than a starter. It's a question of durability, and Deduno's arm just doesn't seem to have enough to withstand the rigors of a 200 inning season. Starters are more valuable in general, and the Rockies have been wise to keep him in that role until he proves without a doubt it's not going to work, but right now there's a mixture of imperative and opportunity that might make it sensible to switch him over for a big league tryout in relief. The benefits include that he already has a spot on the forty man roster, the drawbacks include that he himself is still recovering from his latest ailment, which limited him to 64 pitches of high quality work last night for the Drillers.

Xavier Cedeno hasn't quite been the shot of left handed rescue juice that I was hoping for this season, but for last night, at least, he showed that maybe he could be going forward with two scoreles innings and a 5-1 GB/FB rate. Adam Bright hasn't been that shot of left-handed rescue juice, either, for multiple seasons now, but he too pitched well in one perfect inning, striking out two. Could either of these guys usurp Alan Embree? If last night was the most typical result for them this season, I would say so, but unfortunately it hasn't been. Really, though, this isn't that high standard of achievement we're talking about. Step it up guys, there's a golden opportunity in Denver.

Austin Chambliss and Edgmer Escalona are good to think about. In relation to 2010, 2011. Probably not 2009, but theoldgrizzlybear was right on Sunday to bring Escalona up. He's having a big time breakout performance this season, and if there was going to be a guy this year who made the move from Modesto to the majors, it probably would be him.

Mike Paulk isn't going to help our bullpen but he had three hits and a walk. Anthony Jackson hit his fourth home run.

Modesto: W 5-1

Meanwhile in Modesto, Joey Williamson keeps on winning. He's now 8-0 on the season, 17-0 on the career, after starting and pitching five innings of two hit, two walk, six strikeout work against the not quite as prospect laden, but still very strong San Jose team. On the depth chart of our long relievers/spot starters, Williamson ranks below much of the Colorado Springs and Tulsa rotations, but there's likely something there that will have him moving up. I started going off on a long tangent about Williamson and Rockies philosophy here, instead I'll just make a separate post out of it. Expect it some time today. Probably. It fits in with something else I've been working on, so it might just be a chapter in a saga.

Could Matt Reynolds be the shot of lefty juice? 50 K to 7 BB has a lot of people looking at him as an answer. No reason really not to, but keep in mind that there's probably limited upside. If you recall Josh Newman's results were similar at the level, albeit with a lot more walks, but you'll note that Newman's career has regressed in the PCL with Kansas City's Omaha affiliate this year. Reynolds ability to throw strikes may help him avoid the same kind roadblock, but be careful not to get too eager until we see him repeating the performance at higher levels.

Hector Gomez and Jay Cox each had two hits, Matt Repec had a key two run double in the win.

Asheville: Off-day

Tri-City: W 11-6

The schoolyard bullies, er..., Tri-City Dust Devils, continue to go around whalloping opponents. I wonder if we just switched this team with Asheville straight up if there would be that much difference in the level of play. Asheville might actually be quite a bit better with the Tri-City roster. Don't believe me? Fun fact: the average Tourists hitter has been 21.5 years old this season, the average pitcher 21.6. Tri-City's average hitter has been 22.0, their average pitcher, 22.3.

Alright, so looking at the D-Devils pitchers in connection with the Rockies bullpen, we've got some really nice performances from three at least mildly intriguing pitchers and one awful performance from a pitcher who had been fine up until last night. We'll let Eric Federico's performance slide out of our memory as a mulligan, but check out the dominance of lefties Rob Scahill and Wes Musick. Each pitched three scoreless innings, Scahill struck out five allowing one hit, Musick struck out six allowing two walks and an HBP. They combined for a 5-1 GO/AO rate on the other outs. I'd like to have been there to see both these pitchers as they're two of my favorite middle round picks from the draft. Scahill throws a 90-92 mph sinker and has a solid slider. What's holding him back from elite status is the development of his changeup and a history that includes labrum surgery. He's now thrown six innings with a 7/1 GB/FB rate on his season giving up just one hit with 9 K's. If we're thinking about upgrades to Alan Embree, Scahill should be one very quickly. Believe it or not, with that kind of stuff it's possible as soon as this season, but it would be nice instead if we can see what he becomes as a starter, which makes a rapid track like that unlikely. Musick has a slightly slower FB, but good sink with it and the Rockies are going to try and revive his once promising secondary stuff. Definitely not this year, but keep an eye on these two.

The other pitcher of note for the D-Devils yesterday was Rod Scurry, who's become more of a submariner this season, supposedly, which seems to be helping his results some. Keep an eye on him, too.

As for the bats, lots of players got hits, including two more dingers for Mike Zuanich, who we've been ignoring because of his age, but has 4 HR now, and really dingers are dingers. This gets our attention.

Casper: L 4-6

Speaking of which, Kyle Hancock gave up a three run homer, a two run homer and a sac fly in the first inning but eventually settled down for four innings of quality work. This is the opposite of his first outing with the Ghosts that started well, but ended badly. If he could just put that kind of start with this kind of finish, he'll be alright. Not going to work in our bullpen right now, though.

Chandler Laurent had three hits in the loss.

Monday Pebble Report: Tim Wheeler comes one base short of a cycle in Tri-City; Walk-off wins in C. Springs and Asheville.

Rox Girl — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 13:43:14 -0000

Colorado Springs: W 3-2

Alan Johnson put in a solid effort for seven innings. He allowed a pair of runs with an 11-4 groundout ratio, six hits, a walk and five strikeouts. The Sky Sox kept even with Portland until Matt Murton scored the winning run in the bottom of the tenth on a Christian Colonel single.

Tulsa: W 6-4

Greg Smith had a much better outing this time around, lasting four and two thirds innings and giving up just two runs on four hits and a walk. He's being kept to a 75 pitch limit, so he got pulled before closing out the fifth, but this was an encouraging start against a Springfield offense that's typically pretty dangerous for AA. Mike Paulk, Michael McKenry and Darin Holcomb all had multiple hit games for Tulsa in the win, Ryan Harvey hit his 11th homerun. I've got to do a bigger update on McKenry, he's having a pretty nifty season after starting slow and has a .284/.379/.473 slash line for the month of June, but also is showing a huge home (.994 OPS)/road (.656) split. Drillers Stadium doesn't usually have that effect, especially not to that degree.

Modesto: L 1-3

Brandon Durden got outpitched by Clayton Tanner, or maybe the pitchers were even and the Modesto lineup got outhit by the San Jose lineup, but however it worked out, the Giants came up with two more runs in this one. Jason Van Kooten had three hits, Matt Repec and Charlie Blackmon two each in the loss.

Asheville: W 5-4

Scott Robinson had three hits and scored three of the Tourists five runs, including the game winner on Jordan Pacheco's walk-off two run double in the bottom of the ninth. Robinson's .321/.380/.548 June is also impressive, but as with McKenry there are home/road split issues, and in this case McCormick Field does have a tendency to inflate players value every now and then. I still like him, I'm just aware that there should be mitigating factors tempering my enthusiasm a bit. Delta Cleary had a hit, two walks and stole his 18th base in the win.

Tri-City: W 12-7

While we know that Tyler Matzek would become the system's best prospect once he signs, we haven't really discussed the placement of our other first round selection, Tim Wheeler. A breakout performance (four hits, two doubles, a homerun, a walk, 4 RBI) in yesterday's victory over Spokane shows what he's capable of, and he seems to be showing early power with the Dust Devils that we didn't see from other recent high OF picks such as Charlie Blackmon in 2008. If he keeps this up, he's got to be a top ten prospect in the system for certain, and could even have somewhat of a claim to top five status given the down years/injury issues we've had with guys like Hector Gomez and Chris Nelson.

Kent Matthes, who had three hits and two doubles himself yesterday, probably isn't too far behind on that list, either. The Dust Devils turned a close game into a romp with a five run top to the tenth inning, highlighted by a Mike Zuanich three run shot. Joey Wong had three hits and three runs in the game.

Casper: W 5-2

Dustin Garneau doubled and homered and drove in four of the Ghosts five runs. Avery Barnes had a four for four day and scored twice. Sixth round draft choice Chris Balcolm-Miller allowed just one hit in three innings, one walk and struck out three. The other five outs were recorded on the ground for a fine Ghosts debut. Clint Tilford and Clinton McKinney were nearly as impressive in their three innings each.

The Vigilant Month Lies Ahead, NL Playoff Contenders need to avoid the traps of July

Rox Girl — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:16:06 -0000

First, some "on this date..." sort of history. The following links are how the major leagues have looked through games on June 27 in each of the last five seasons. The great thing about Baseball Reference's pages is that it includes the team's records after that date as well, so we can look at what makes the playoff teams tick, and why the also-rans prove pretenders.

June 27, 2004

I want to take a close look at the AL Central in this season, as I think this shows where WolfMarauder was coming from in a discussion we had in last night's game thread. Whereas I was saying a team's performance in the first half is usually helpful in predicting the second half, this is a classic example of how that's not always the case. Minnesota, much like the Giants this season, had a start where their solid record seemed to indicate they were playing over their heads. If everything was completely predictable, we'd have expected them to come back to the pack in the second half. Instead they went 51-37, and it turned out that the won/loss record itself was more predictive of what that team was capable of than the runs scored/allowed were. In the NL, the Brewers were 41-34 after sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field to close out June, just 3.5 games back. By the trade deadline at the end of July, they were 50-53 and 16 games behind. The next few weeks will see some teams slip rapidly out of the chase.

June 27, 2005

Huston Street and the A's had actually started their great run of the summer of 2005 right about the time the Rockies started their run this year. On the morning of May 30, Oakland was 17-32, 12.5 games out of first. By June 27, they were 35-40, having gone 18-8 and just sweeping the Giants with a 16-0 slaughter. By the end of the season, they were 88-74, having gone 70-42 over their last 112 games. They wound up seven back after briefly tying for the division lead on September 15th and tiring out down the stretch run.

June 27, 2006

Look at how the Rockies tanked for the rest of this season after being in a pretty good spot in the first half. The reason was losing 11 out of 12 just before and after the All-Star break where the team went 0-9 in games decided by two runs or less. One bad stretch was all it took to derail everything in what could/should have been the team's first successful season of a longer run, but instead the team proved to be the pretenders that most outside pundits had suspected at this point in the year. They made one more dash to within a couple of games of the NL West lead, but similarly to last night's game for the A's, it was an empty threat.

June 27, 2007

Of course, this was the complete opposite of 2006, where the Rockies were able to stay close long enough to put together the one outstanding run which proved them playoff worthy. But look closely at what happened to Milwaukee this season. On this date the team had a 7.5 game lead in the Central but went on a 3-7 road trip leading into the All-Star break, with their lead already whittled down to 4.5 games. By the time they got swept at St. Louis at the end of July, the Brewers lead had been cut down to one game. Of course they could only play spoiler for the Padres the last weekend of the season. I'm not saying anything, but how many games are the Dodgers ahead of the Rockies right now?

June 27, 2008

Don't tell Mets fans this, but their team didn't actually choke at the end of the season in 2008, they choked in the beginning. A .602 winning percentage in the last three months of the year would have been more than enough had the team gotten off to a start better than 31-34. They're slightly better than that right now in 2009, but looking at the very real threat of getting sifted out of a viable position to rally in the next few weeks due to injury. The lesson at the end of this 2008 season for the Mets and the aforementioned 2005 A's team might be of some concern to the Rockies, though. Sometimes a team can work so hard to catch up to a frontrunner that they "forget" to close out the deal. The 2007 Rockies team didn't have time for this to happen because they caught up on the last day possible, should the Rockies catch the Dodgers somehow this season, they've got to be careful to avoid the let-up in intensity that some teams seem to face.

So let's take a look at right now (well, through yesterday's games at BB-Ref):

June 27, 2009

What we know will happen:

Some teams will fade, some will surge going forward.

What we don't know for certain:

Which teams are which. This was WolfMarauder's primary point last night. There will almost always be some surprise team making a comeback or run, some powerhouse that falters. That said, not every team is created equal right now. Some are better than others.

So keeping in mind that there's no guarantee for any of the following, let's go to the next step,

What we can be reasonably confident about:

Regression

- the Dodgers will still win more than they lose, but they're unlikely to win with the frequency they have up to this point. Similarly the Nationals will still lose more than they win, but their win percentage should drift a little closer to .500 going forward in 2009.

While what the Nationals do might not matter to the Rockies too much (save for the fact we have six games left to play against them) there is, for the moment, plenty of reason to take hope in that point about the Dodgers. The Rockies current run only has made them even with LA when it comes to records since Manny Ramirez's suspension. We were 8.5 games behind them on May 8, we're 8.5 games behind them now. Even so, we can take comfort in knowing that a strong series in Los Angeles this week could actually put the division title back in play, even with Ramirez coming back for them. Of course, the flip side is that getting swept in Los Angeles should finally put a flatline to our NL West hopes for this year, even after all that work by the valiant paramedics to recover a pulse. Regression will hit the Rockies too, they can't sustain the pace they've been on since Tracy took over forever, it's just a matter of who gets hit harder and sooner, the Dodgers or Rockies.

For the moment I'm going to put this aside, I think the end of July will tell us where things really stand with the West if this week doesn't. I'm hoping the Rockies are with striking distance then, but not counting on it.

What we can be a little less confident about, but is still probably true:

"...I don't sense a lot of activity this year. Too many teams are in the hunt. The Colorado Rockies were out of it, then won 11 in a row. Every club likes to think it can do that and get back in the race."

Brewers GM Doug Melvin to MLB.com's Hal Bodley

Certain teams are faking it at this point, and we can be at least somewhat confident that the Rockies aren't one of them. As the link theoldgrizzlybear gave to Jayson Stark in yesterday's Rockpile points out, while every club likes to think it has a run like the Rockies in them, Melvin's implication in the above quote, that most clubs are deluding themselves in this thought, is true. Runs don't happen to everybody and they seem to happen more frequently with certain teams than others.

To make a surge like that requires more than just a run of good luck, although that certainly plays a big part in it. All the basic elements of a strong baseball team have to be in place. Solid pitching, both starting and in relief, and especially a strong, deep lineup, and a quality bench.

I'm going to posit that while pitching is important for establishing a quality team, scoring typically drives the big streaks. It might be good to remind people that our starting rotation at the end of 2007 was Franklin Morales, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg and Mark Redman. Two journeymen, two rookies, and Francis. It doesn't take a genius to figure out it wasn't the talent level of our starting pitching that gave us the final push to the playoffs that season, even though these five pitchers did provide quality work. You look at Philadelphia both late in 2007 and 2008 and see the same story, hitting rich, pitching thin.

To further note this, in their last thirty games, the Rockies have scored seven or more runs nine times. The Giants have done this just four times. Meanwhile, the Giants have scored two runs or less seven times in the last thirty games, while the Rockies have done it four times, albeit not once since losing to Houston on June 2 and starting their remarkable run. To put it bluntly, the Giants simply haven't shown the offense to put together a streak like the one the Rockies just did. To this point, we also haven't seen any signs of that kind of surge generating offense from the Reds, Braves, Astros, or believe it or not, the Cubs in 2009. I'm going to keep the Cubs and Giants in the discussion today, but eliminate the other three teams to save myself some work. I'll probably revisit this topic a month from now, and if any of them have legs to stand on then, they'll be included in the next round.

Lineups:

Here are the ZiPS projected wOBA's for each contending team's primary starters for the remainder of the season, I have put the trailers in italics, and the projected leaders in bold font:

Position	Cubs	Mets	Phillies	Rockies	Giants	Marlins	Brewers	Cardinals
Catcher	.371	.313	.327	.373	.314	.312	.299	.312
1st Base	.367	.362	.401	.389	.318	.342	.416	.455
2nd Base	.259	.321	.411	.332	.313	.356	.312	.332
3rd Base	.386	.413	.314	.365	.351	.284	.315	.315
Shortstop	.284	.367	.338	.355	.314	.412	.334	.315
Left Field	.352	.342	.377	.350	.332	.316	.417	.342
Center Field	.342	.397	.351	.326	.347	.353	.345	.322
Right Field	.381	.347	.364	.389	.340	.355	.346	.359

Chicago Cubs: ZiPS believes that Geovany Soto, Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley will all bounce back from their first half slumps, and with the return of Aramis Ramirez some time in July, there's substantial reason to see the Cubs as a better team than their current position in the standings would indicate. But there are issues here, particularly with relying too much on Soriano and Bradley, that when added to their current holes in the middle infield and decent competition leave me more doubtful that they've got another playoff run in them in 2009. There is a lack of star level offense in this lineup to begin with, but that's especially true if players continue to underperform. If I had to pick a team expected to perform at a playoff level in 2009 at the beginning of the season that I now thought would be the biggest disappointment, just by looking at the lineups, for me it would be this one, not the Mets.

New York Mets: New York looks like a formidable offense when healthy. Wait. Those last two words of the previous sentence are pretty important right now. Three key components to this offense are on the shelf, and their replacements leave the team vulnerable to the kind of mid-season collapse that hit the 2006 Rockies. But there are other issues at play here, too. While the team won't be at full strength when the Dodgers come to town before the All-Star Break, the Mets could be operating on all cylinders in time for the Rockies visit at the end of July. If you look at that offense at full strength, there's just one real weakness at catcher, and if their backstops get hot. They are definitely capable of an extended run, the question is whether that full health will ever completely come about as a lot of these parts outside of Wright and Reyes are on aging wheels that might fall off at any moment.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies main issue remains with their pitching staff, everybody can see this, but the offense has proven more than capable of keeping the team afloat so far. This same offense was what drove the Phils dramatic runs to overtake the Mets in each of the last two seasons.

"No one's out there dealing anybody or wanting to part with anybody because the pitchers who are available are, one, hurt, and two, pitching for teams that don't think they're out of the race yet," (Ruben) Amaro told Philled In. "I know because I've asked about every one of them."

From Phillies beat writer Scott Lauber's blog

Colorado Rockies: As with the Cubs, there's a lack of star power (over .400 wOBA) according to the projections, but unlike the Northsiders, the Rockies have the best all around offense among these teams, and make up for it with plenty of depth. I used Ryan Spilborghs' projection in left instead of Seth Smith (.374 projected wOBA) which would make it look even better or Carlos Gonzalez (.293),who would represent a hole unless he outperforms expectations as he's capable of. This won't be statistically satisfactory to a lot of people, but a big issue with the Rockies is complacency. They've shown over the last month what the team is capable of, but why exactly were they turned off in the first place? Jim Tracy has done a great job of motivating them to this point, but they can't afford another lull like the one they started the season with. There will be slow stretches in the second half, the team can't let them turn into extended slump.

San Francisco Giants: The Rockies have scored 129 runs in their last 21 games, the Giants have been on a pretty decent run themselves in that time, going 12-9. Their runs scored? 80. The Giants best 21 game stretch as far as runs scored this season? 97, which they've done twice. Since 2005 at least (that's as far back as I've checked so far) there hasn't been an NL playoff team without at least one 21 game stretch of scoring 120 runs or more. Even the 82-80 2005 Padres team did it. This San Francisco squad is not a team capable of taking off. If they are going to make the playoffs, it will be like a tortoise rather than a hare. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just don't like their chances. If other teams get significantly ahead of them, ahem, I mean you, Rockies, the Giants are going to have a Dickens of a time making up ground.

Giants center fielder Aaron Rowand says that his team hasn't given up on overtaking the Dodgers. "The wild card is not the goal," Rowand said, and Giants GM Brian Sabean agreed, saying, "We've got to find a way to get closer to first place."

From John Perrotto's Weekend Wrap at Baseball Prospectus (subscription required)

Florida Marlins: I know that this is the team in the rearview that's making Mets and Phillies fans more nervous than the Braves right now. It's why I'm including them instead. They have what I'm just going to call an "NL East Lineup" that has a batting star (Mets and Phillies each have two), a couple other solid players, but also significant holes to fill. Should they make a trade for another bat, they have a quality pitching staff and enough components that I really do see them as somewhat dangerous. Right now, though, I consider them a little short.

Milwaukee Brewers: It's sort of baffling to me that this team is in the position it is, given three well below average lineup slots, but that's what stars the caliber of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can do, I suppose. I think Milwaukee's good enough to hold up in the NL, better than Florida and San Francisco, but they too are flawed enough that they could fade without trade help.

St. Louis Cardinals: If you want to substitute Mark DeRosa's projected .348 wOBA in any of the positions he plays go ahead. The trade definitely seems like it might provide St. Louis some help on offense (realize that most Cardinal fans wouldn't trust the somewhat decent LF projection for Chris Duncan, for instance) and it makes the Cardinals a bit more tricky to get around, but DeRosa can only play one position at a time, and he's possibly a defensive liability at this point in the infield.

Pitching

So while I believe that dramatic runs are created by a team's offense, pitching and defense do supply the bread and butter and strength in these categories should, in theory, provide a cushion to fall back on in rough times with slow but steady returns. Think of the offense like stocks, pitching like bonds or CD's. This is how these eight teams rank in a few pitching metrics:

Team	ERA	FIP	S-tRA	B-tRA
Giants	3.71	3.88	4.28	4.01
Cardinals	3.86	4.05	4.12	4.93
Cubs	3.94	4.36	3.98	4.38
Mets	4.16	4.25	4.97	4.23
Marlins	4.43	4.12	4.86	4.63
Brewers	4.47	4.63	5.36	4.05
Rockies	4.55	4.10	4.27	4.15
Phillies	4.81	4.88	5.45	4.79

Alright, now this is sort of interesting to me. The Cardinals, who have the worst bullen of the eight contenders according to tRA, gave up one of their more promising young relievers to get Mark DeRosa. Granted Chris Perez wasn't performing that well thus far in 2009 because of a lot of walks, but he was a mildly valuable asset from a position of weakness that they sent packing to shore up their bench.

The Giants pitchers are very good, but not nearly good enough right now to make up for the weakness in their offense. Giving up 3.88 runs a game works on the surface, but if RA is only equal to RS, wins more than half the time are going to be hard to come by. What's more, the starting rotation might be a mirage after Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Randy Johnson (4.87 tRA) and Barry Zito (5.77) both have underlying weaknesses to their pitching lines that foretell trouble ahead, and Jonathan Sanchez has already been replaced. The stellar bullpen has been masking some of that rotational weakness and providing some cover to the offense, but I simply don't think this can last without an upgrade to the lineup.

The Mets, Phillies, Brewers and surprisingly the Marlins have had relatively weak starting rotations thus far. Florida is seemingly given too much credit in this category, more than maybe they deserve. Milwaukee and the Mets have received help from their pens, Florida and Philly not so much.

The Cubs and Rockies are good enough on paper to compete for the rest of the season with their pitching right now, although knowing who he has, I could understand why O'Dowd would be looking for bullpen help. The Cardinals could also be better with stronger relief and the Cubs are having some bizarre drama with the top of their rotation that's probably just smoke from a blowhard media type, but may bear watching.

The Summer Shakeout:

Between now and the week following the All-Star break, it's almost a given that there will be some movement that puts a couple of teams now considering themselves contenders out of the running and separation within divisions should start to occur. We're already seeing it with San Diego and Arizona fading from being reasonably close to the non-Dodger NL West a month ago. As we've seen in the month of June with the Rockies, sweeps seem to happen with more frequency. Thankfully for us thus far, they've been in our favor, because as we saw in 2006, when your team gets swept this time of year, the effects down the road can really be a lot more devastating than might be initially realized.

The Rockies have a relatively easy patch of schedule between when they get back from this week's Dodgers series and when they leave for the Citi-Field matchup with the Mets at the end of July. The Dodgers have a harder road in front of them so the West could see some tightening. It's certainly important, however, that the Rockies use from now until the trade deadline to pass the NL East and Central leaders and get as much separation as possible. Both the Brewers and the Cardinals face the Dodgers next month as well as each other, so those teams could either spread the damage all around or drive one or more teams out of the picture. The Giants have the dreaded ten game post All-Star road trip that has seemingly tripped up so many would be contenders over the last five years, and with it ending at Coors Field July 24-26, the Rockies could be in a position to put San Francisco's thoughts of contention to rest.

Bottom line:

Colorado currently has the best offense/pitching balance of these eight teams. Ooh, big surprise, this is a Rockies blog and I came to that conclusion. How homerific of me. Really though, it's hard to see it any other way. If you've got substantive arguments that point to another conclusion, I'd like to hear them. The reason the Rockies compete against the AL while most of the NL does not, clues us in that this team is constructed well. That said, I think the team has a smaller likelihood of getting significant help via trade than just about anybody else given the budget and Dan O'Dowd's approach as GM.

I think the Mets and Phillies lineups are capable of getting hot and producing major runs to pull out in the second half, but don't like the chances for the other five non-Rockies contenders outside of Milwaukee (see below) to put that kind of hot stretch together. I think the Giants could slowly bludgeon their way into the playoffs with good pitching, but the Cubs have too many teams to pass to be able to do the same right now. If Chicago still wants to compete in 2009, I really think they need to trade for more offense. They have both the young players and money to do so.

Philadelphia and New York are interesting cases. Troy Renck's right that the Mets are flawed, but so are the Phillies, and both in a relatively severe way when it comes to pitching. Both should have the money to be much better than this, and they have the payrolls to suggest they ought to be better, but the teams just seem inefficiently built when it comes down to it. As with the Cubs, these teams have resources, so we'll see who they acquire, but right now, I don't think the Rockies finish behind either team in the standings. The Mets current injury situation pushes the Phillies to the favorite role for the division title if they weren't already there before by virtue of their record and defending victor status.

I look at the Brewers and see the same pitching issue as the two main NL East teams and Milwaukee has deeper holes in the lineup at catcher and the middle infield, so I would think this would preclude them from the teams capable of big streaks. You look at what they did between April 22 and May 19 of this season (a 21-5 record in that stretch) and it proves the lie of that statement, however. Chemistry and some luck helps, I guess. The question, similar to the one we have with the Rockies is whether that team is capable of doing it again. The Cardinals are steady and Albert Pujols gives them something that the Giants or Cubs don't have right now, while they are getting close to the same kind of pitching performance that those two teams have. Right now, especially after the DeRosa trade, I think St. Louis is the favorite in the Central.

At this point, I'm regretting including the Marlins. They're just not as substantive on close inspection, and it's probably a testament to the weakness of the NL East this year that they are deemed the threat that they are. I would be very surprised if they stay a challenger for a playoff spot into August.

Right now if I'm guessing, I think the NL division leaders at the end of July are the same they are heading into the end of June, with the Central division being most in play, while the West could be surprisingly close to most observers outside of Colorado at the end . Besides Florida, look for San Francisco to fade over the next month as well, but if they don't it's probably a sign of destiny and we should lock ourselves in fallout shelters to protect ourselves from having to deal with Giants fans, who carry unpleasant side effects when they're winning.

While I see real weakness with those two teams, I wonder if my thoughts about the Cubs are more a hunch than anything substantial. I do feel that they and the other five teams, Colorado, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Philadelphia and New York, should still be well within a safe contention buffer at the end of July, but the Yankees sweep shows how vulnerable the Mets may be right now, and New York could conceivably be put out of the running before they get back to full strength if the Phillies go on a run and the WC stays ahead of the NL East.

SB Nation User Blog: Rox Girl

Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies return home for 5-0 win, Diamondbacks still expected to arrive to play sometime later

Game #79: Maxwell M. Scherzer vs. Jorge Alberto (Gonzalez) de la Rosa

M.M..S.

J.A.(G.)d.l.R.

NL West Standings

Lineup

Jorge Arangure Tweets: Rosmel Herrera to Rockies for $550,000

Jorge Arangure Tweets: Rosmel Herrera to Rockies for $550,000

Friday Pebble Report: Franklin Morales solid, maybe, Chaz Roe and Drillers pen spectacular, and other teams and players did stuff

BtB - Jason Hammel finds control with Rockies

BtB - Jason Hammel finds control with Rockies

Rockies trade Jeff Baker to Cubs for minor league pitcher Alberto Alburquerque

Jeff Baker

#10 / Second Base / Colorado Rockies

Thursday Rockpile: Jeff Baker traded, does Atkins move next? July 2 could be more busy for Rockies than usual

International signing starts today

Other notes and links

Tuesday Pebble Report: Got relief help? Some arms to think about for this year and beyond

Monday Pebble Report: Tim Wheeler comes one base short of a cycle in Tri-City; Walk-off wins in C. Springs and Asheville.

The Vigilant Month Lies Ahead, NL Playoff Contenders need to avoid the traps of July

What we know will happen:

What we don't know for certain:

What we can be reasonably confident about:

Regression

What we can be a little less confident about, but is still probably true:

Lineups:

Pitching

The Summer Shakeout:

Bottom line: