I figured we needed a sounding board for all our PF prospects just as much as we needed a Draft Prospect Board, so, here goes...

I'll keep tabs on comments, including suggestions for additional players, then run a version 2.0 with a further in-depth look at our top candidates. For version 1.0, I stuck with "Rebound Rating" as my primary metric, available via 82games.com, and supported this with a few brief observations about the players. Basically, the goal is to narrow this list down to a manageable number (like 5 to 10 candidates) and then compare every last detail of their individual games to determine who we believe would be the best fit.

Veteran Candidates

1.) Antonio McDyess – UFA - 12 year vet seeking championship… Rebound rating ranks McDyess in the Top-10 ahead of David Lee and Emeka Okafor… Rough estimate would be a salary between $4 - $5 million, but would not surprise me if he signs with a championship contender for much less…

2.) Troy Murphy - $23mil over 2 years – 7 year vet with a ridiculously disproportionate contract… $11 million salary would require all of our cap space plus an asset (likely Joel Przybilla)… Rebound rating is phenomenal, just behind Marcus Camby for 7th in the NBA and Murphy also shoots 45% from three- point land… Used to playing 34 minutes per game, which would presumably decrease dramatically.

2b.) Brandon Bass -  UFA - 3 year vet that currently fills the exact role we're looking for on the Dallas Mavericks (with Dirk Nowitzki playing the part of LaMarcus Aldridge)... In 19.7 minutes, Bass averaged 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds while shooting a respectable 49.6% from the field... Size wise, Bass weighs in at 250lbs, so he's not going to get pushed around like a Channing Frye or Travis Outlaw... The biggest question mark is what Dallas offers him to retain his services. They are also trying to re-sign Jason Kidd and they're already over the cap at roughly $72 million (without considering either of these two players), so I think an offer of $4 million to start seems about right for a backup big man. Bass' availability almost entirely depends on how crazy Mark Cuban gets with his wallet...

3.) David Lee – RFA  – 3 year vet with a rebound rating slightly behind that of Tim Duncan for 10th in the NBA… Averaged 16 points per game but only averaged .27 blocks per game last season… Averaged 34.9 minutes/game which likely means he would require more than backup minutes to land in Portland (i.e. sign-and-trade that includes Zilla or by some unlikely turn of events, LaMarcus)… Rumored to be seeking contract in the neighborhood of $10 million…

4.) Nick Collison – 13.2 million over 2 years – 4 year veteran stuck on a roster that fails to maximize his strengths… Rebound rating is slightly better than Chris Bosh and slightly worse than Kevin Garnett… Played at Kansas (KP and Kirk Hinrich connection!)… Averaged 25.8 minutes per game (6.9 rebounds in that time) for a lottery team, so 15 minutes doesn’t seem out of the ball park so long as he’s playing for a competitor… Shot 56.8% from the field for 2008-2009… $6.5 million salary means he could be “absorbed” through our cap space or we could offer a combination of lower-tier assets (Sergio Rodriguez, signed-and-traded Channing Frye, etc) to acquire Collison.

5.) Charlie Villanueva – RFA – 3 year veteran who thinks he’s better than he really is… Rebound rating ranks in between Pau Gasol and Anderson Varejao… Averaged 26.9 minutes per game, but doesn’t seem content playing less minutes on a more competitive team… Took over 1,000 field goal attempts last season, which would not be available in Portland… Loves Twitter… From an outsiders point of view, it seems like anything over $8 million gets Charlie V. out of Milwaukee as they can’t afford to pay both Ramon Sessions and Villanueva big bucks for the production (W’s and L’s) they’re getting…

6.) Udonis Haslem – $7.1 million expiring contract – Ranks just below Villanueva and Pau Gasol in terms of rebound rating… Averaged 10.6 points on 51% shooting next to D-Wade, which is the kind of efficiency Portland should be looking for out of a backup big man… Played most of last season out of position at C… Averaged 34.1 minutes per game, which would mean a steep reduction in playing time … Could be theoretically acquired using a low-tier asset + cap space (Sergio Rodriguez) but Miami considers Haslem to be a veteran leader, much like Przybilla is for the Blazers, so it would likely require a true big in return (Przybilla or the rights to Joel Freeland + an additional asset)…

7.) Andray Blatche - $9.78 million over 3 years (about $3.25mil/yr) – Ranks just below Tyrus Thomas in Rebound Rating… 47.1% shooter isn’t very efficient for a backup big man… 24 minutes per game last season, but not sure how interested Blatche would be in seeing those minutes decrease (he’s only 22 years old)… With Washington looking to win now, despite being in the lottery, it seems like Blatche could be had for either an additional scorer off the bench or a true shooting guard, which means your looking at Bayless or Rudy being included in the deal and hopefully getting Washington’s draft pick as well…

8.) Ronnie Turiaf - $12.5 million over 3 years (about $4.25mil/yr) – Because Roy gets what Roy wants… Extremely reasonable contract considering he’s only 26 years old and averages the perfect amount of minutes (21.5 minutes/game) for a complimentary big man… Has Channing Frye and Jerryd Bayless-like ability to cheer from the bench during important moments of the game… Slightly better Rebound Rating than Lebron James (yeah I said it) but slightly worse than Matt Bonner… 50.8% shooter from the field… Could be absorbed with cap space or matches up almost 1-to-1 with Travis Outlaw’s contract (which means the deal could also include any of our low-tier assets like Sergio, Joel Freeland, Petteri, etc)…

9.) Linas Kleiza – RFA – Not the prototypical “banger” that has been previously listed, but Kleiza would seemingly match-up well with the PF’s who also have a mid-range game (the Luis Scola’s of the world) so long as he has a big man covering the rim, like Chris Anderson or Joel P in our case… Needs to spend more time around the basket or in transition, but shoots 32.6% from three-point land… Rebound rating ranks below Kevin Durant but above Caron Butler (Kleiza really plays more like a SF that guards PF’s)… Travis Outlaw is slightly statistically greater in nearly every category except Kleiza has 40 pounds of sheer mass on him (so take Outlaw and add 40 lbs)… From a salary stand point, a rough, rough guess would be 60-70% of what Lee signs for (so between $5 million and $7 million)… Portland would have to out-bid Denver, because a trade between inter-divisional rivals at this point is unlikely, except in the most dire of circumstances…

2009 Draft Candidates

1.) Blake Griffin – Projected #1 (LA Clippers) - Too high and too pricey for a guy who’s likely only getting 15 minutes per game… Admittedly, I’m not super high on Blake Griffin, so I won’t even mention possibly trading LaMarcus Aldridge and filler for the #1 pick…

2.) Jordan Hill – Projected #7 (Golden State Warriors) - Again, probably too high and too pricey and I’ll be honest, as a Pac-10 basketball fan, I’m a little surprised to see Jordan Hill as a Top-10 pick… I think this speaks more to the limited amount of “big” talent available than to Jordan Hill’s actual skill level…

3.) Dejuan Blair – Projected #13 (Indiana Pacers) - “Red-flagged knees” sounds an awful lot like the “Kidney problems” that led to the Blazers acquiring Nicolas Batum last season. #13 seems a little high for a pick to be sold for cash, but if we could acquire a second pick (from New Orleans, Atlanta, Utah, or Minnesota), then I would imagine 2 picks + $3mil in cash gets you in the top-15 and a shot at Dejuan “Bad Knees” Blair.

4.) Tyler Hansborough – Projected #20 (Utah Jazz) - I’ll let someone else write a quick scouting summary about Hansborough, because personally, I can’t stand the guy. If he’s able to get Erin Andrews to at least a couple games in Portland, then I’m all for trading up and grabbing her him…

5.) Jeff Pendergraph – Projected #38 (Portland Trail Blazers) - Pac-10 represent… According to Ben, Pendergraph had a very strong workout against Psycho-T and some of his other competition… Advanced metrics (points per possession especially) love Pendergraph and he spent most of his time getting put-backs at ASU… Unfortunately, he could stand to gain about 15 – 20lbs in order to limit the number of players that are able to abuse him on the low block…

6.) Taj Gibson – Projected #36 (Memphis Grizzlies)

7.) Josh Heytvelt – Projected #37 (San Antonio Spurs)

8.) Victor Claver – Projected #41 (Milwaukee Bucks)

Relevant Rumors:

-  Golden State of Turmoil: Allegedly Monta Ellis is unhappy in Golden State, meaning that the Warriors could spend the #7 pick on a PG or SG (even though they’ve promised that Ellis will be running the show next season) which could make Ellis available to a team with cap space and “win now” talent available. If not, then the Warriors will likely target Jordan Hill and could effectively eliminate 1 of our PF options 

- Out of Ammo in Washington: Antawn Jamison may be included in a cap-clearing move that sends Ben Wallace (likely to retire) and Sasha Pavlovic to the Wizards for Jamison and Mike James. If Washington throws in the #5 pick, then this usurps the Pau Gasol trade for being the most lopsided in recent history. Conversely, this also means that Antawn Jamison is available, but he would command more minutes than Portland has available.

- Rubio to become member of the Wolfpack?: Minnesota’s David Kahn has been shopping his little heart out, apparently… Kevin Love has allegedly been offered to Memphis for the #2 pick (Rubio) which shows relative value for trading up that high.

- Need Speedy?: Atlanta is offering the #19 pick to anyone that will take Speedy Claxton’s contract off their hands so they can re-sign Mike Bibby. If we’re interested in Bibby, we don’t bite, but if not, then Claxton’s contract is covered mostly by insurance and we’d be able to offer the #19 and the #24 to a team in the Dejuan Blair range (#11 - #15).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update 1.5:

After 24 hours, the current "Prospect Board" looks like this...

1.) Dejuan Blair

2.) Antonio McDyess

3.) Ronnie Turiaf

4.) Jeff Pendergraph

5.) Tyler Hansborough

6.) Nick Collison

7.) David Lee (tie for 7th)

8.) Udonis Haslem (tie for 7th)

Honorable Mentions: Sean Marks, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace and Eduardo Najera

In light of the recent Sergio Rodriguez article and the countless opinions regarding the future of Jarrett Jack (and Petteri Koponen, Steve Blake and Brandon Roy) at the point guard position, I thought it would be interesting to map out what I believe Nate McMillan looks for in a point guard and then make an educated guess at who best matches this profile...

First of all, Nate McMillan is an old school throwback coach who prioritizes efficiency and defense above all else. We get a sense of his need for steady efficienct play in the way he uses Steve Blake. Yes, Nate may have favored Jack in crunchtime, but there was no question that Steve Blake was our half-game horse this year. In my eyes, though, Jarrett Jack was given such a long leash this season because he had shown that he was, or can be, moderately efficient (more so referring to the "get the ball to Zach Randolph" years) and he has the physical tools to become a gifted on-ball defender. This is a stark contrast to Steve Blake (who is an average defender that has pretty much hit his peak) and Sergio Rodriguez (who does not play defense).

In seeing the progression of Martell Webster, we can discern that Nate McMillan believes the difference is made on the defensive end. You don't take a "pure shooter" 6th in the draft and then put him on the shelf until he becomes a defensive stopper, unless you believe that anyone in the NBA on any given night can light up the scoreboard. To be more cliche - Nate probably goes to bed at night saying "Offense gets the glory, but defense wins the game..." (See also: Oden over Durant)

So, who are the top defensive point guards in the NBA? Who are the players that fit Nate's mold for the prototypical point guard?

Who wouldn't want these guys: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker... Not so much that they are "Nate's Type" but no coach would turn down an opportunity to land these 3 guys. Likewise, their respective franchises would need a full fifth of Bacardi 151 and a couple trips to Seattle in Rasheed Wallace's "we smoked it all up" Yellow Hummer before they let these guys get away...

Near perfect examples (but unlikely to land here): Chauncey Billups, Derek Fisher, and Andre Miller... Billups seems like Nate's dream as a point guard, which is even more interesting because Jack was frequently compared to a young Chauncey during the 06-07 season. He's a floor general, he distributes, scores and plays defense, but he's probably the fourth "least touchable" point in the league. Derek Fisher is prototypical in that he's a great on-ball defender (led the league in Charges Drawn this year) and has a steady hand in the offense, but he's the same age as Harrison Ford. Andre Miller is also an example of a steady point guard who plays better defense than he's given credit for. This past season, Miller posted an average PER that was 6 points better than his opponent but after his playoff run, it'd be a tough trade to pull off. Is Sweet Lou the future for the 76ers? If so, that does give us a window of opportunity.

Solid options (and arguably attainable): Jason Terry, TJ Ford/Jose Calderon, Devon Harris, Monta Ellis/Baron Davis... I guess call this the "fatal flaw" category. Baron Davis has massive contract demands that will basically force GS to choose on of the two. Ellis isn't a great defender, but he has the speed to match up with the elite point guards of the league and if Davis is the casualty, then it seems like a trade with the foundation of Raef's expiring contract, a young talented player and a couple draft picks could make it work. Calderon and TJ Ford are in a similar situation in Toronto. Yes, TJ has injury concerns (of the spinal variety!) but let's face it- we're already going to need some luck on the injury front to make our title hopes become a reality. It was the same way with the '76 Blazers. Ford's speed and ability to drive would be a positive, and he also posted a postive PER against his opponent. Jason Terry would be an interesting (and possible acquisition) if we were set on Brandon Roy playing the point. Terry could not man up on the CP3 and D-Will's of the world, but he'd be a strong outside presence next to Roy.

It might just work: Sebastian Telfair, Raymond Felton, Mike Conley Jr/Kyle Lowry, Chris Duhon, Raja Bell/Leandro Barbosa... This category is drawing at straws and going on potential, with a few exceptions. If there's a fire sale in Phoenix, it seems like Barbosa could be available for the right package, maybe even Bell too. The former would give us a speedy guard to play opposite Roy and at least give us some hope at a fastbreak attack. Duhon is probably the most available of any point guard in the NBA, but I hardly think he's an upgrade. Memphis has a slew of young point guards and a probable chance at grabbing another one (Derrick Rose) but none of them have proven anything. Same with Telfair and Felton. I may get blasted for this, but the only difference I see in Tony Parker and a player like Sebastian Telfair is environment and work ethic. With his speed, Telfair could be a top tier point in the NBA, but he has never "figured it out." Felton averaged 14.4 points and 7.4 assists per game this season and we've seen a substantial improvement in his game over the past 3 seasons. Although not a good three-point shooter, he's a step up athletically over Steve Blake...

After looking at players and stats all morning, I definitely think our point guard situation could be worse, but it could also substantially improve... What does it take to land a player in the "Solid Options" category? Do any of the young guys listed look interesting?