So I'm sitting here, waiting for my girlfriend to get ready for the evening and I remembered that the AFL futures game was on the MLB network. So with rum and coke in hand, I thought I'd chronicle Moose's AB's. Press play on the video if you'd also like to listen to a good song. Fucking took me 25 minutes to figure this motherfucker out.

Live from Surprise, AZ, home of the Kansas City Royals as well as the Texas Rangers.  The play by play guy called this ballpark one of the "crown jewels" of the Cactus League.

At Bat #1

Moose, and may I say Moose? (He looks Billy Butler-esque) He grounded out to 1B in what would very likely be a single at least 60-70% of the time.  For whatever reason, first bagger Brandon Snyder was WAY off the line when he picked up the grounder and tossed it to the pitcher covering first.  One out, but not a bad out as it advanced the runner and would have likely been a single in most other situations. He was facing Tommy Mendoza of the Angels organization. It was the third pitch of the AB.

At Bat #2

I missed this one.  I had to run to the god damned gas station to get something for my girlfriend.  But according to the box score Moose had a single and later ended up scoring.  According to the gameday however, Moose was facing Daniel Moskos and had a "sharp ground ball" into right field off a 92 MPH four seam FB.  It was the first pitch of the AB. Also of note is that Moskos is a LHP selected 4th overall by the Pirates in 2007.

*Mike Leake, pitching for the East squad really has sharp breaking stuff. He struck out two in the 4th inning.  His pre draft scouting report really looks accurate.  To me he basically looks like Brian Bannister RIGHT now.

*Tanner Scheppers throws gas.  He also works VERY fast.  Physically he reminds me of Jeff Samardzjia.  He touched 99 and was working in the mid to high 90s.  Sharp 12-6 curve, not thrown for strike.  Hate to use cliches, but Scheppers is electric like Tesla.

At Bat #3

Facing LHP Dustin Richardson out of the Red Sox organization. (Richardson is from Newton, KS) Grounds out to SS on the second pitch.  Moose now has 3 AB's and has only seen six total pitches.   That's the book on him so far.  He really needs to see more pitches.  The announcer (who claims he is from KS) says that many people from Netwon and Kansas state wide are watching Richardson pitching.  He just went on an unusual aside there for a minute.

1B Yonder Alonso is now 3-3 with a double.  He's making solid contact.  The Reds have a good looking combo in the pipeline with him and Leake. And Heise, didn't know him before tonight.

Just spotted on the MLB Network ticker.  "Brad Lidge will undergo surgery to remove loose body from his right elbow"  WTF is a loose body inside an actual body?  Am I on the wrong side of too many rum and cokes? No, I definitely saw that.

Moose has now been pulled for Carlos Rivero who just made a good pick and throw at the hot corner.  I didn't notice any balls hit at Moose in his six innings.

*Danny Gutierrez is now in the game.  He apparently has a lot of friends at the game with LOUD cheers at Surprise stadium.  He strikes out his first batter with a curve in the dirt.  Gets his second batter out on another biting curveball.  Got a third K on yet another curve against Jemile Weeks.  btw, I HATE saying struck out the side when batters reach base even though you K'ed three in the inning.  Anyways, an extremely solid inning by Dan.  At worst, he's pitching like an 8th inning guy.  Too bad he doesn't love Jesus enough. Manny Pina = Yadier Molina?

The game isn't over yet, but Moose is out.  And my girlfriend and her brilliant friends want to leave Brookside for some god forsaken bar in Overland Park.  

I've had over a month off from the Royals now and have been mulling over some ideas.  This is my vision for the Royals in the upcoming 2010 season.  Bear with me if you're bored and/or interested in one fans ideal vision for his cherished franchise.

1B-  Mike Jacobs / Billy Butler 

Obviously Billy Butler is the man.  He had a fantastic age 23 season with 50+ doubles.  Its quite possible that a few of those doubles turn into homeruns and Billy will parlay his superb contact ability into a .315+ average.  2008 line 301/362/492   (UZR -6.24  2.5 WAR). 2010 prediction - 315/390/505, with him hopefully moving closer to average defensively. As for Mike Jacobs, he should be non tendered and Kila brought up in his spot on the 25 man roster.

2B - Alberto Callaspo

Given his minor league production, his offensive breakout this year wasn't as unexpected as some would have you think. However, as we all know his defense was atrocious, to the tune of a -7.8 UZR.  So, some ideas....   With Billy being below average we need someone above average defensively to help cover some of the ground Billy can't.  I move Callaspo to 3B where I believe he can be at least average defensively if not just a little better. If that doesn't work out, he can certainly be an atypical DH.  He's under team control and cheap for the next few seasons, so he has value.  So, with Callaspo moved off of 2B, who plays second?  Betancourt could move to 2B, he might be average there.  A healthy  Aviles could likely play a slick 2B and if he could recapture even a decent portion of his 2008 offensive production then he could post a WAR between 2.5 to 3.5, which is incredibly useful.  So, we can keep our fingers crossed for that because Aviles would be a cheap and potentially super productive in house option.  Jeff Bianchi could potentially be ready mid season at SS/2B as well. Tug Hulett could also be useful, likely the pure definition of replacement level. A possible trade target could be the Phillies' Jason Donald who is said to project well above average defensively at 2B.  

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"Wee" Willie Bloomquist

The only thing I can say is "Wow!" I didn't see this coming, but without him we don't have 14 wins. Through Sunday's game Willie has drawn 8 BB's compared to just 6 K's.  His OBP% stands at a staggering 462 with 4 XBH's in 43 AB's. He's also 3/4 in SB attempts. So what can we reasonably expect from him?  Something along the lines of Esteban German's fantastic year several years ago with better defense?  

"who's surprised?  not me"

via www.mattspenandpaperheroes.com

Jose Guillen

Despite his inevitable peaks and valleys, I was relieved when Jose got off the DL.  It looks as if he's not going to have his traditional slow start.  Jose's quick stroke can be devastating, like his HR in today's game that put us ahead.  Through 45 AB's Jose has 5 XBH's to go with a 360 OBP%  Could we get the Jose Guillen, circa 2003-2007?  Could he OBP 350 with 25 HR's?  If he does, the Reales look more and more like AL Central champs.

Coco Crisp

To me, Coco brings a certain unquantifiable star quality to this lineup.  He has the tantalizing speed and athleticism, making outstanding plays in CF look ordinary.  But Coco has added an element this year that hasn't previously been a part of his repertoire - the walk.  Coco now sports 17 BB's compared to just 12 K's.  He is on pace to shatter his previous career high of 50.  Coco is still only 29, and he could be primed for a career year in 2009.  Coco is walking at a 15.7% rate, compared to his 7.6% career average.  When you combine his age, athleticism, and great eye, nothing seems impossible.  His BABIP in 2009 is at 273 (career 311). His BA should rebound slowly to his career norm of around 279.  Bold prediction: 550 PA - 270/370/450 - Count me in.  And in case anyone is wondering, Coco is down with the Twitter as well.

"shields, i'll see you June 4.  You best not disrespect mah' Royals, man"

via nbcsportsmedia4.msnbc.com

Alberto Callaspo

I'm excited to get Gordon back as much as the next guy, but the saying goes "when one door closes, another opens".  Callaspo finally got the opportunity, and he's made the most of it.  Callaspo's current SLG is 570.  Like.. for real... not a typo.  And that is through 79 AB's.  Some may claim small sample size, but, we're getting surprisingly close to significant sample size territory.  Callaspo has socked 13 XBH's, including his first career HR.  He's also K'ing only 5.3% of the time (8% career) and BB'ing 8.4% (7.6% career)  Bold prediction: He's gonna hit 320/380/440 and become our #3 hitter.  Hopefully his devious days are behind him, and he becomes one of the better offensive second baggers in the AL.

Billy Butler

Ryan and Frank have noticed, and so have we; Billy's 1B defense is looking good.  He's now been used as a late inning defensive replacement, and he really does seem to have okay hands.  As we all know, he's only 23, and I really think he could become an above average first baseman.  In addition to the glove, I think Billy is primed for a breakout. He's BB'ing at 13.8% (7.8% career)  Combine his young age, hitters pedigree, increased walk rate, and a 271 BABIP, he could be a mere days away from going on a huge tear.  I wouldn't be surprised, and the Royalprospectsphere could finally take a well deserved exhale.

"i'm ready to break out like swine flu on the streets of mexico"

via kansascity.royals.mlb.com

Kevin Seitzer

What is there to add?  Not much really.  Plain and simple, we're walking more.  We're only a month in, but based on that development alone I think he's earned a B+/A- rating.  Way to go Seitz, good to see you back in the dugout 'ol pal.

Well this has been fun.  Its easy to have fun writing these things and thinking about the Royals these days.  And you know what, we've earned it.  I'm on cloud nine right now as I can imagine a lot of you are.  We're 25 games in and 14-11.  We really look like contenders.  And the best part, there is room for improvement.  Hochevar's knocking on the door, Gordon's gonna return eventually, and we're already three games above 500.  Things are looking up.

 

"I like a escalator, man, 'cause an escalator can never break. It can only become stairs." - Mitch Hedberg

I couldn't really fit this right into a fanshot.  I just wanted to throw it out there, would Randy Johnson be a good fit for the Royals, and more importantly, would the price be right?

MLBTR report that the DBacks lowballed Johnson with a 2-3 million deal, while he reportedly might have settled for about 8.  

So to cut to the chase, could one year of Randy Johnson at about 8-12 million push the Royals into serious playoff contention?  Bill James already has us at 85-90 wins, with everything clicking perfectly. In the least it would be great to see him pitch in person for the first time.  Dude is a serious pitching legend.  And also, he would get his 300th win in Royal blue.  Would it be crazy to offer an optional second year?  Incentive laden contract?  Just food for thought.

Randy Johnson in 2008

184 IP        3.91ERA/117ERA+        173K/44BB        305 BABIP (303 career)

Thoughts? Rants? Raves?

Born: 1/14/88

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

Position: 3B/1B

Royals Corner had this to say in its 2006 top prospects list. "Ask any two random scouts about what they think of Jason Taylor, and you’ll likely get two completely different assessments".

Taylor has been in the back of my mind ever since he was selected in the 2nd round in 2006.  Like Jeff Bianchi, Taylor is someone with a lot of promise who has faced various problems. Bianchi faced injuries and Taylor with god only knows.  But after his outstanding year in Low A ball, Taylor has returned to top prospect status.

As we all know, Taylor missed 2007.  That was bad.  Really bad.  That was definitely a worse case scenario for a guy you take in the second round.  Especially considering that he wasn't in the BA Top 200  going into the draft.  By the way, can someone PLEASE tell me why he missed 2007?  I've seen various rumors (drugs, work ethic, insubordination) but nothing conclusive.  

Nonetheless, Taylor finally got the opportunity to play full season baseball on the banks of the MIssissippi River in idyllic Burlington, Iowa.*  He did not disappoint.  Taylor brought his bat and keen eye in posting a 242/372/418 for a 790 OPS. League OPS was 693. Taylor also posted a BABIP of 272 so it seems plausible that with better luck he would have likely broken the 800 OPS threshold. 

*Taylor made his professional debut in 2006 in the AZL.  He did mostly good but not great.  He showed good on base skills but no pop in posting a 258/374/325 for an underwhelming 699 OPS.  The League OPS that year was 727 and the team's 744.  Very little power with only 9 XBH's in 177 PA's.  And then came the mystery trouble.

Taylor looks to have three plus tools. Instead of hitting for average, I'm going to call his tool batting eye.  I doubt this is too controversial.  Taylor has shown exceptional patience at the plate. Taylor also possesses the power tool.  He had 38 XBH's this year, including 17 HR's in the power deflated Midwest League.  Taylor also has some wheels.  He snagged 40 bases in 54 attempts, for a 74% average.

So with that, I see three above average tools.  I know little about his fielding abilities.  I've read reports saying he was both good and bad with the glove.  It is worth noting that he was moved to first to accomodate Moustakas's move to the hot corner.  And for the final tool, throwing ability, I also have no idea.  But 3/5 ain't bad, ain't bad at all.

Given Taylor's production, tools, and age, the future looks bright for the former bad boy*.  If he can hone his contact skills he could bump up to elite prospect status.  And with his wheels, could Taylor play CF?  Adrian Ortiz played CF for much of the year in Burlington until he was promoted.  Is it plausible for a HS SS, moved to 3B in the pros, moved to 1B to accommodate the organizations top prospect, could possibly be a CF in disguise?  Far fetched probably, but I'd love to get input about this and know if anybody knows examples of this happening anywhere else.

*Is this fair?  I really hope someone knows exactly why he missed 2007.  But bad boy Jason Taylor kinda has a nice ring to it?  Maybe not.

Taylor isn't a sexy prospect like Mike Moustakas or Dan Cortes.  He will likely never hit for a BA above 265-270.  But with his keen eye, developing power, and outstanding speed, it shouldn't matter.  Only time will tell, but if Taylor could utilize his athleticism and make a move to CF, Taylor could develop into something truly special a la Carlos Beltran.*

*I probably don't need a pozterisk at the end of my post, but oh well.  In Low A Spokane in the NWL, Beltran posted a 270/362/433 with 10 SB's. Compare Beltran's 795 OPS in a 705 OPS league to Taylor's 790 in a 693 OPS league.  I know I'm dreaming because Carlos was always a CF, but you know what, it never hurts to dream. Especially as a Royals fan.  Baseball Powerball, keep on dreaming baby.

As you all know, Mike Moustakas wrapped up his first year of professional baseball in Burlington, Iowa last week.  It is safe to say that Mike got off to an extremely poor start in his first month of pro ball.  His April line was a horrid 190/253/226, culminating in a 479 OPS. In addition to his hitting woes, Mike also committed a bevy of errors at SS.  He was moved mid season to the hot corner after the Royals acquired SS Juan Rivera from the Dodgers in exchange for former whipping boy, Angel Berroa.

Needless to say it was not the debut that the Royal faithful were anticipating. However, it isn't uncommon for high school guys to have a similar acclimation to the harsh climate of early season baseball in the Midwest League.  It is also worth mentioning that Mike was one of the younger players in the entire league, living outside of his native Southern California for the first time.

But in a true display of Ross Gloadian grit, our favorite Greek-American Royal rebounded from his dismal debut.  If you throw out his first month Mike's overall season line comes out to a 348 OBP and 498 SLG for an 846 OPS.  And even including the first month he earned an 805 OPS.  This is especially significant considering the league average was 693.  Mike also finished the year with a 291 BABIP, showing that his numbers are likely in line with what they ought to be. Mike also took 43 free passes as opposed to 86 K's.  The strikeouts are a tad high, but nothing to be astounded by.  It would be great to see a line in Wilmington next year of 60BB/75K's. That would show a good step forward in plate discipline.

However, the most impressive thing that Mike accomplished was his league leading 22 dingers.  It is hard not to be thoroughly impressed with a 19 year kid leading the Midwest League in HR's.  He looks to have all the power that he was billed with coming out of Chatsworth High.

It is reported that he is settling into the hot corner fairly well.  It was written in this months Baseball America that at one point the Royals sent Joe Randa up to Burlington to help Mike get adjusted there.  And for what its worth I got one opportunity to see Burlington play this summer and Mike seemed comfortable at third, and boy does he have a cannon for an arm.   Mike looked like a prototypical Catcher, but I suppose that is a discussion for another day.  

Also, for what its worth Mike excelled in the Midwest League while fellow 2007 draftee Josh Vitters was placed in the Low A Northwest League.  To be fair Vitters did post an 863 OPS with 5 HR's there before earning 14 AB promotion to the Midwest League.  Also, fellow Chatsworth High Grad Matt Dominguez posted an oustanding 853 OPS with 18 HR's in the slightly more hitting friendly South Atlantic League.

In all, 2008 was a success for the organizations top hitting prospect.  He did pretty much anything you would want your top overall pick to do right out of high school.  Going forward it would be great to see Mike hit the ground running in Wilmington next year, possibly earning a late promotion to Arkansas sometime in July or so.