So I'm sitting here, waiting for my girlfriend to get ready for the evening and I remembered that the AFL futures game was on the MLB network. So with rum and coke in hand, I thought I'd chronicle Moose's AB's. Press play on the video if you'd also like to listen to a good song. Fucking took me 25 minutes to figure this motherfucker out.

Live from Surprise, AZ, home of the Kansas City Royals as well as the Texas Rangers.  The play by play guy called this ballpark one of the "crown jewels" of the Cactus League.

At Bat #1

Moose, and may I say Moose? (He looks Billy Butler-esque) He grounded out to 1B in what would very likely be a single at least 60-70% of the time.  For whatever reason, first bagger Brandon Snyder was WAY off the line when he picked up the grounder and tossed it to the pitcher covering first.  One out, but not a bad out as it advanced the runner and would have likely been a single in most other situations. He was facing Tommy Mendoza of the Angels organization. It was the third pitch of the AB.

At Bat #2

I missed this one.  I had to run to the god damned gas station to get something for my girlfriend.  But according to the box score Moose had a single and later ended up scoring.  According to the gameday however, Moose was facing Daniel Moskos and had a "sharp ground ball" into right field off a 92 MPH four seam FB.  It was the first pitch of the AB. Also of note is that Moskos is a LHP selected 4th overall by the Pirates in 2007.

*Mike Leake, pitching for the East squad really has sharp breaking stuff. He struck out two in the 4th inning.  His pre draft scouting report really looks accurate.  To me he basically looks like Brian Bannister RIGHT now.

*Tanner Scheppers throws gas.  He also works VERY fast.  Physically he reminds me of Jeff Samardzjia.  He touched 99 and was working in the mid to high 90s.  Sharp 12-6 curve, not thrown for strike.  Hate to use cliches, but Scheppers is electric like Tesla.

At Bat #3

Facing LHP Dustin Richardson out of the Red Sox organization. (Richardson is from Newton, KS) Grounds out to SS on the second pitch.  Moose now has 3 AB's and has only seen six total pitches.   That's the book on him so far.  He really needs to see more pitches.  The announcer (who claims he is from KS) says that many people from Netwon and Kansas state wide are watching Richardson pitching.  He just went on an unusual aside there for a minute.

1B Yonder Alonso is now 3-3 with a double.  He's making solid contact.  The Reds have a good looking combo in the pipeline with him and Leake. And Heise, didn't know him before tonight.

Just spotted on the MLB Network ticker.  "Brad Lidge will undergo surgery to remove loose body from his right elbow"  WTF is a loose body inside an actual body?  Am I on the wrong side of too many rum and cokes? No, I definitely saw that.

Moose has now been pulled for Carlos Rivero who just made a good pick and throw at the hot corner.  I didn't notice any balls hit at Moose in his six innings.

*Danny Gutierrez is now in the game.  He apparently has a lot of friends at the game with LOUD cheers at Surprise stadium.  He strikes out his first batter with a curve in the dirt.  Gets his second batter out on another biting curveball.  Got a third K on yet another curve against Jemile Weeks.  btw, I HATE saying struck out the side when batters reach base even though you K'ed three in the inning.  Anyways, an extremely solid inning by Dan.  At worst, he's pitching like an 8th inning guy.  Too bad he doesn't love Jesus enough. Manny Pina = Yadier Molina?

The game isn't over yet, but Moose is out.  And my girlfriend and her brilliant friends want to leave Brookside for some god forsaken bar in Overland Park.  

I've had over a month off from the Royals now and have been mulling over some ideas.  This is my vision for the Royals in the upcoming 2010 season.  Bear with me if you're bored and/or interested in one fans ideal vision for his cherished franchise.

1B-  Mike Jacobs / Billy Butler 

Obviously Billy Butler is the man.  He had a fantastic age 23 season with 50+ doubles.  Its quite possible that a few of those doubles turn into homeruns and Billy will parlay his superb contact ability into a .315+ average.  2008 line 301/362/492   (UZR -6.24  2.5 WAR). 2010 prediction - 315/390/505, with him hopefully moving closer to average defensively. As for Mike Jacobs, he should be non tendered and Kila brought up in his spot on the 25 man roster.

2B - Alberto Callaspo

Given his minor league production, his offensive breakout this year wasn't as unexpected as some would have you think. However, as we all know his defense was atrocious, to the tune of a -7.8 UZR.  So, some ideas....   With Billy being below average we need someone above average defensively to help cover some of the ground Billy can't.  I move Callaspo to 3B where I believe he can be at least average defensively if not just a little better. If that doesn't work out, he can certainly be an atypical DH.  He's under team control and cheap for the next few seasons, so he has value.  So, with Callaspo moved off of 2B, who plays second?  Betancourt could move to 2B, he might be average there.  A healthy  Aviles could likely play a slick 2B and if he could recapture even a decent portion of his 2008 offensive production then he could post a WAR between 2.5 to 3.5, which is incredibly useful.  So, we can keep our fingers crossed for that because Aviles would be a cheap and potentially super productive in house option.  Jeff Bianchi could potentially be ready mid season at SS/2B as well. Tug Hulett could also be useful, likely the pure definition of replacement level. A possible trade target could be the Phillies' Jason Donald who is said to project well above average defensively at 2B.  

Continue reading this post »

  

 

"Wee" Willie Bloomquist

The only thing I can say is "Wow!" I didn't see this coming, but without him we don't have 14 wins. Through Sunday's game Willie has drawn 8 BB's compared to just 6 K's.  His OBP% stands at a staggering 462 with 4 XBH's in 43 AB's. He's also 3/4 in SB attempts. So what can we reasonably expect from him?  Something along the lines of Esteban German's fantastic year several years ago with better defense?  

"who's surprised?  not me"

via www.mattspenandpaperheroes.com

Jose Guillen

Despite his inevitable peaks and valleys, I was relieved when Jose got off the DL.  It looks as if he's not going to have his traditional slow start.  Jose's quick stroke can be devastating, like his HR in today's game that put us ahead.  Through 45 AB's Jose has 5 XBH's to go with a 360 OBP%  Could we get the Jose Guillen, circa 2003-2007?  Could he OBP 350 with 25 HR's?  If he does, the Reales look more and more like AL Central champs.

Coco Crisp

To me, Coco brings a certain unquantifiable star quality to this lineup.  He has the tantalizing speed and athleticism, making outstanding plays in CF look ordinary.  But Coco has added an element this year that hasn't previously been a part of his repertoire - the walk.  Coco now sports 17 BB's compared to just 12 K's.  He is on pace to shatter his previous career high of 50.  Coco is still only 29, and he could be primed for a career year in 2009.  Coco is walking at a 15.7% rate, compared to his 7.6% career average.  When you combine his age, athleticism, and great eye, nothing seems impossible.  His BABIP in 2009 is at 273 (career 311). His BA should rebound slowly to his career norm of around 279.  Bold prediction: 550 PA - 270/370/450 - Count me in.  And in case anyone is wondering, Coco is down with the Twitter as well.

"shields, i'll see you June 4.  You best not disrespect mah' Royals, man"

via nbcsportsmedia4.msnbc.com

Alberto Callaspo

I'm excited to get Gordon back as much as the next guy, but the saying goes "when one door closes, another opens".  Callaspo finally got the opportunity, and he's made the most of it.  Callaspo's current SLG is 570.  Like.. for real... not a typo.  And that is through 79 AB's.  Some may claim small sample size, but, we're getting surprisingly close to significant sample size territory.  Callaspo has socked 13 XBH's, including his first career HR.  He's also K'ing only 5.3% of the time (8% career) and BB'ing 8.4% (7.6% career)  Bold prediction: He's gonna hit 320/380/440 and become our #3 hitter.  Hopefully his devious days are behind him, and he becomes one of the better offensive second baggers in the AL.

Billy Butler

Ryan and Frank have noticed, and so have we; Billy's 1B defense is looking good.  He's now been used as a late inning defensive replacement, and he really does seem to have okay hands.  As we all know, he's only 23, and I really think he could become an above average first baseman.  In addition to the glove, I think Billy is primed for a breakout. He's BB'ing at 13.8% (7.8% career)  Combine his young age, hitters pedigree, increased walk rate, and a 271 BABIP, he could be a mere days away from going on a huge tear.  I wouldn't be surprised, and the Royalprospectsphere could finally take a well deserved exhale.

"i'm ready to break out like swine flu on the streets of mexico"

via kansascity.royals.mlb.com

Kevin Seitzer

What is there to add?  Not much really.  Plain and simple, we're walking more.  We're only a month in, but based on that development alone I think he's earned a B+/A- rating.  Way to go Seitz, good to see you back in the dugout 'ol pal.

Well this has been fun.  Its easy to have fun writing these things and thinking about the Royals these days.  And you know what, we've earned it.  I'm on cloud nine right now as I can imagine a lot of you are.  We're 25 games in and 14-11.  We really look like contenders.  And the best part, there is room for improvement.  Hochevar's knocking on the door, Gordon's gonna return eventually, and we're already three games above 500.  Things are looking up.

 

 

 

"I like a escalator, man, 'cause an escalator can never break. It can only become stairs." - Mitch Hedberg

 

I couldn't really fit this right into a fanshot.  I just wanted to throw it out there, would Randy Johnson be a good fit for the Royals, and more importantly, would the price be right?

MLBTR report that the DBacks lowballed Johnson with a 2-3 million deal, while he reportedly might have settled for about 8.  

So to cut to the chase, could one year of Randy Johnson at about 8-12 million push the Royals into serious playoff contention?  Bill James already has us at 85-90 wins, with everything clicking perfectly. In the least it would be great to see him pitch in person for the first time.  Dude is a serious pitching legend.  And also, he would get his 300th win in Royal blue.  Would it be crazy to offer an optional second year?  Incentive laden contract?  Just food for thought.

 

Randy Johnson in 2008

184 IP        3.91ERA/117ERA+        173K/44BB        305 BABIP (303 career)

 

Thoughts? Rants? Raves?

 

Born: 1/14/88

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

Position: 3B/1B

 

Royals Corner had this to say in its 2006 top prospects list. "Ask any two random scouts about what they think of Jason Taylor, and you’ll likely get two completely different assessments".

Taylor has been in the back of my mind ever since he was selected in the 2nd round in 2006.  Like Jeff Bianchi, Taylor is someone with a lot of promise who has faced various problems. Bianchi faced injuries and Taylor with god only knows.  But after his outstanding year in Low A ball, Taylor has returned to top prospect status.

As we all know, Taylor missed 2007.  That was bad.  Really bad.  That was definitely a worse case scenario for a guy you take in the second round.  Especially considering that he wasn't in the BA Top 200  going into the draft.  By the way, can someone PLEASE tell me why he missed 2007?  I've seen various rumors (drugs, work ethic, insubordination) but nothing conclusive.  

Nonetheless, Taylor finally got the opportunity to play full season baseball on the banks of the MIssissippi River in idyllic Burlington, Iowa.*  He did not disappoint.  Taylor brought his bat and keen eye in posting a 242/372/418 for a 790 OPS. League OPS was 693. Taylor also posted a BABIP of 272 so it seems plausible that with better luck he would have likely broken the 800 OPS threshold. 

*Taylor made his professional debut in 2006 in the AZL.  He did mostly good but not great.  He showed good on base skills but no pop in posting a 258/374/325 for an underwhelming 699 OPS.  The League OPS that year was 727 and the team's 744.  Very little power with only 9 XBH's in 177 PA's.  And then came the mystery trouble.

Taylor looks to have three plus tools. Instead of hitting for average, I'm going to call his tool batting eye.  I doubt this is too controversial.  Taylor has shown exceptional patience at the plate. Taylor also possesses the power tool.  He had 38 XBH's this year, including 17 HR's in the power deflated Midwest League.  Taylor also has some wheels.  He snagged 40 bases in 54 attempts, for a 74% average.

So with that, I see three above average tools.  I know little about his fielding abilities.  I've read reports saying he was both good and bad with the glove.  It is worth noting that he was moved to first to accomodate Moustakas's move to the hot corner.  And for the final tool, throwing ability, I also have no idea.  But 3/5 ain't bad, ain't bad at all.

Given Taylor's production, tools, and age, the future looks bright for the former bad boy*.  If he can hone his contact skills he could bump up to elite prospect status.  And with his wheels, could Taylor play CF?  Adrian Ortiz played CF for much of the year in Burlington until he was promoted.  Is it plausible for a HS SS, moved to 3B in the pros, moved to 1B to accommodate the organizations top prospect, could possibly be a CF in disguise?  Far fetched probably, but I'd love to get input about this and know if anybody knows examples of this happening anywhere else.

*Is this fair?  I really hope someone knows exactly why he missed 2007.  But bad boy Jason Taylor kinda has a nice ring to it?  Maybe not.

Taylor isn't a sexy prospect like Mike Moustakas or Dan Cortes.  He will likely never hit for a BA above 265-270.  But with his keen eye, developing power, and outstanding speed, it shouldn't matter.  Only time will tell, but if Taylor could utilize his athleticism and make a move to CF, Taylor could develop into something truly special a la Carlos Beltran.*

*I probably don't need a pozterisk at the end of my post, but oh well.  In Low A Spokane in the NWL, Beltran posted a 270/362/433 with 10 SB's. Compare Beltran's 795 OPS in a 705 OPS league to Taylor's 790 in a 693 OPS league.  I know I'm dreaming because Carlos was always a CF, but you know what, it never hurts to dream. Especially as a Royals fan.  Baseball Powerball, keep on dreaming baby.

 

Poll

Is Jason Taylor a top 10 Royals prospect?

32%

Yes

24 votes

67%

No

50 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

As you all know, Mike Moustakas wrapped up his first year of professional baseball in Burlington, Iowa last week.  It is safe to say that Mike got off to an extremely poor start in his first month of pro ball.  His April line was a horrid 190/253/226, culminating in a 479 OPS. In addition to his hitting woes, Mike also committed a bevy of errors at SS.  He was moved mid season to the hot corner after the Royals acquired SS Juan Rivera from the Dodgers in exchange for former whipping boy, Angel Berroa.

Needless to say it was not the debut that the Royal faithful were anticipating. However, it isn't uncommon for high school guys to have a similar acclimation to the harsh climate of early season baseball in the Midwest League.  It is also worth mentioning that Mike was one of the younger players in the entire league, living outside of his native Southern California for the first time.

But in a true display of Ross Gloadian grit, our favorite Greek-American Royal rebounded from his dismal debut.  If you throw out his first month Mike's overall season line comes out to a 348 OBP and 498 SLG for an 846 OPS.  And even including the first month he earned an 805 OPS.  This is especially significant considering the league average was 693.  Mike also finished the year with a 291 BABIP, showing that his numbers are likely in line with what they ought to be. Mike also took 43 free passes as opposed to 86 K's.  The strikeouts are a tad high, but nothing to be astounded by.  It would be great to see a line in Wilmington next year of 60BB/75K's. That would show a good step forward in plate discipline.

However, the most impressive thing that Mike accomplished was his league leading 22 dingers.  It is hard not to be thoroughly impressed with a 19 year kid leading the Midwest League in HR's.  He looks to have all the power that he was billed with coming out of Chatsworth High.

It is reported that he is settling into the hot corner fairly well.  It was written in this months Baseball America that at one point the Royals sent Joe Randa up to Burlington to help Mike get adjusted there.  And for what its worth I got one opportunity to see Burlington play this summer and Mike seemed comfortable at third, and boy does he have a cannon for an arm.   Mike looked like a prototypical Catcher, but I suppose that is a discussion for another day.  

Also, for what its worth Mike excelled in the Midwest League while fellow 2007 draftee Josh Vitters was placed in the Low A Northwest League.  To be fair Vitters did post an 863 OPS with 5 HR's there before earning 14 AB promotion to the Midwest League.  Also, fellow Chatsworth High Grad Matt Dominguez posted an oustanding 853 OPS with 18 HR's in the slightly more hitting friendly South Atlantic League.

In all, 2008 was a success for the organizations top hitting prospect.  He did pretty much anything you would want your top overall pick to do right out of high school.  Going forward it would be great to see Mike hit the ground running in Wilmington next year, possibly earning a late promotion to Arkansas sometime in July or so. 

 

"I'm looking at you, Alex Gordon"

This losing streak blows my mind. I just got off work in time to catch the 9th and witness the continuation of our losing streak. So, I tried to find something positive. And that I did. I checked the Burlington website to check on everyone's favorite Bee, Mike Moustakas. Mike did not disappoint, finishing the night 2/5 including his team leading 7th homer. As a 19 year old in the Midwest League Mike is really proving himself after his slow start in a cold March and parts of April. If he continues to progress it would be awesome to see if he could finish the year with maybe 100 or so AB's in High A. Also, Alex Caldera who we took in the 13th round last year pitched a gem. He went 7 1/3 with 2 H's a BB and 8 K's. Nice outing indeed. This lowered his ERA on the season to 2.52. Nice evening for the Bee's as well as they ended up winning 4-1. So while we wait at least one more day for the Royals to end their losing streak, at least things down on the farm are looking positive.

Know Your Enemy - Chicago White Sox

See ya later                         The New Guys
Alex Cintron                        Orlando Cabrera
Jon Garland                         Scott Linebrink (4yr/19mil)
Scott Podsednik                  Carlos Quentin
Ryan Sweeney                     Nick Swisher
Darin Erstad                        Octavio Dotel (2yr/11mil)
Mike Myers
Heath Phillips
Luis Terrero
Andy Gonzalez

2007 OPS+ leaders            2007 ERA+ (80+IP)           2007 ERA+ (50+ IP)
Jim Thome 150                 Mark Buehrle 131               Bobby Jenks 171
Paul Konerko 116              Javier Vazquez 127           Matt Thornton 99
Jermaine Dye 105             Jon Garland 112                Boone Logan 95
Josh Fields 101                 Jon Danks 86                      Gavin Floyd 90
Ron Mackowiak 100         Jose Contreras 85

AVG Team OPS+ 87    AVG Team ERA+99

The 2007 White Sox were an awful hitting team.  But in terms of OPS+ the Royals were slightly worse, with an 85 OPS+.  The Royals only managed 102 dingers while the Sox knocked in 190, good for second most in the AL.  Along with the Tigers, GM Kenny Williams was very active in the offseason.  He added Scott Linebrink (career 127 ERA+) and gunslinger and short lived Royal Octavio Dotel (121 career OPS+).  This will help a Chicago bullpen that as shown above had only four pitchers with 50 or more innings in 2007.  And beyond big man Bobby Jenks  the bullpen was average to slightly below last year.  I look to the bullpen to be slightly above average next year, albeit accomplished with excessive contracts given to Linebrink and Dotel.  On the SP side it is hard to anticipate anything drastically different than what happened in 2007.  Danks could improve to league average, Contreras maybe a 8-12% improvement.  The Sox will miss Garland in 2007.   There also isn't much major league ready pitching depth in the high minors.

On the offensive side, I was surprised to find that among Thome, Konerko, and Dye, their OPS+ last year was almost identical with their career lines. But beyond that Orlando Cabrera will be an upgrade at short and at the plate over Juan Uribe. Not a magnificent upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless.  However, the crown jewel of Williams' offseason was the acquisition of moneyballer Nick Swisher (one of my favorite players I must admit).  Swisher will be entering is age 27 season and is signed to a very reasonable contract ($3.5 Million in 2008, $5.3 Million in 2009, $6.75 Million in 2010, $9 Million in 2011, and a $10.25 Million club option for 2012 with a $1 Million buyout).   The Sox gave up two projectable SP candidates, especially righty Faustino De Los Santos.  They also gave up CF Ryan Sweeney who looks to be given an everyday chance with the rebuilding A's.  There looks to be a battle at 3B between Joe Crede who is coming off a poor 2007 and Josh Fields.  It also wouldn't be unlikely for Crede to be dealt before the start of the season either, especially if he proves to be healthy in spring training.  Carlos Quentin, the second overall pick in 2003 will also have to prove he is healthy as he battles for a job in LF.

In all I do not see the Sox taking strides forward.  Also they have abandoned much of their youth for what seems like a team that has no chance of finishing higher than third in the central behind the Tigers and Indians.  Their rotation looks to be around league average and most of their lineup is aging.  Lance Broadway could come up to contribute this year in the rotation, but beyond him their is not much major league ready talent in their system.  Perhaps Aaron Poreda could get some time with the the big league club this year.

2008 Chicago White Sox record prediction    74-88 and 5th in the AL Central

Poll

Where do the White Sox finish in the Central?

19%

Fourth

4 votes

66%

Fifth

14 votes

4%

First

1 votes

0%

Second

0 votes

9%

Third

2 votes

21 votes | Poll has closed

I'm hoping to make a post for each of the Royals opponents in the Central.  Here is the first, let me know what you all think.

------

2007 Record (79-83) Pythag (80-82) (28-44 VS Central) (9-9 VS Royals)

Adios

Johan Santana
Jason Tyner
Lew Ford
Matt Garza
Torii Hunter
Carlos Silva

The New Guys (ML or close to ML ready)

SP - Phil Humber (25, NYM)
CF - Carlos Gomez (22, NYM)
3B - Mike Lamb (32, HOU)
SS - Brendan Harris (27,TB)
RF - Delmon Young (22, TB)
LF - Craig Monroe (31 CHI)

2007 OPS+ Leaders

Torii Hunter 122
Justin Morneau 121
Joe Mauer 117
Michael Cuddyer 111
Jason Kubel 109

2007 ERA+ Leaders

80+ Innings

Johan Santana 130
Matt Garza 118
Carlos Silva 103
Scott Baker 102
Kevin Slowey 92

50+ Innings

Joe Nathan 230
Matt Guerrier 184
Pat Neshek 147
Juan Rincon 85

The Twins finished 2007 with their first losing season in seven years.  Former Assistant GM Bill Smith took over this offseason after GM Terry Ryan decided to step down.  Smith began this offseason as the regulator of the"Santana Sweepstakes".  Several teams tried to woo baseball's most dominant pitcher.  In the beginning it looked as if the Yankees or the Red Sox would snag Santana.  But as time wore on the Mets swooped in for the biggest acquisition of the offseason by sending a group of minor leaguers who Bill Smith hopes will anchor the Twins rebuilding efforts.  18 year old right hander Deolis Guerra has all of the intangibles of a young and budding power pitcher. However, at this point in his career he is a boom or bust type prospect.  The Twins also brought in toolsy Carlos Gomez who I believe will be the Twins starting CF in 2008.  Looking at Gomez's stats I find a lot to be desired.  With a career OPS in the minors of 735 displaying little power and slightly below average on base skills it looks like Twins fans might not like how Gomez pans out in comparison to the other offers supposedly on Smith's table (Ellsbury, Lester, Hughes, Cabrera, etc).  But, at 22 years old it is hardly a sure thing how he will pan out.  But one also has to wonder if the Twins even got as much as the A's got for Dan Haren or the O's got for Erik Bedard.  While that is highly debatable, if Bill Smith is in a rebuilding mode, why is Joe Nathan still on the team?  He could certainly still be dealt, but at this point I'm hearing rumors that the Twins may make a deal with him.  If I were in the Twins position having just given up Santana, I would be next to the phone waiting for Nathan deals 24/7.  

But anyways.  On to 2008, the short term.  Francisco Liriano returns from Tommy John surgery this year.  He will be a strong contributor to  this year, albeit not necessarily too quickly coming off arm surgery.  The Twins brought in former uber prospect Delmon Young (still just 22) who will anchor right field for several years to come.  It also looks like Gomez will play CF and Cuddyer will be in left as usual.  The Twins infield will see a few new faces as the abysmal (as in worse than Jason Larue) Nick Punto will be replaced by Mike Lamb who has a career 96 OPS+ (definite improvement there).  Craig Monroe and Jason Kubel look to split time at DH, although it would be wise for Kubel to get more AB's given he's going into his age 26 season with a lot more upside than Monroe (887 OPS in minors).  Kubel also could be a 4th outfielder. Brendan Harris and Alexi Casilla look to play up the middle this year as well.  

Positives going into this year include Morneau and Cuddyer being locked up for the next few years.  Both will play a part in any sort of playoff push this team could make in the next few years.  This also obviously includes Joe Mauer who is signed for three more years as well.  Another strength of the Twins is their starting pitching depth in the minors, and also currently at the major league level including Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Glen Perkins.

Negatives include the return for Santana.  I don't like the way that Gomez projects.  If there was ever an Ellsbury/Lester or Hughes/Cabrera offer on the table then I think the Twins blew it.  Having Mike Lamb will be an improvement at 3B, but so would I over Nick Punto. The Twins long term needs at 3B have not been solved.  Also, while having Joe Nathan on your team is never a negative thing, it makes you wonder what "mode" Bill Smith is in currently.  When you look at how to rebuild a team just look at what Billy Beane is doing. Just blow that thing up and start over.

Look out in the minors for... John Manuel's man crush Nick Blackburn, who had a very solid AAA season last year (2.36 ERA  75K/19BB in 148.2).  Manuel controversially named Blackburn the Twins #1 prospect at age 26.  The guy is obviously a control artist, but certainly not a frontline starter.  22 year old Kevin Mulvey from the Mets looks to vie for time this year also.  He posted a 3.2 ERA in mostly AA with a 54K/22BB in 71 innings.  24 year old Brian Duensing will also likely be a part of the Twins staff at some point after posting a 3.07 ERA in 167 innings at AAA.  OF Jason Pridie, the proud owner of an 839 OPS in the minors will battle for a spot as the Twins 4th OF.

2008 Minnesota Twins overall record prediction - 77-85 and 4th in the AL Central.  Any thoughts?

Poll

Where do the Twins finish in the Central?

0%

1

0 votes

3%

2

2 votes

29%

3

15 votes

43%

4

22 votes

23%

5

12 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

So, I've let this signing simmer for the last few days.  I've tried to reserve judgment and see if my initial reservations/anger would go away.

First, I'd like to say that I honestly don't think Rob Neyer is really a Royals fan.  Maybe he's just the most pessimistic person on Earth.  In the least, I've NEVER read anyone write about the Royals so negatively over and over and over.  So when ol' Rob came out against the signing it almost made me think the reverse of what he thought (see Meche, Gil)

But then, I read the normally reserved and always level headed Joe Posnanski compare Guillen  against Emil Brown.  At first I thought heck, I don't think I'd go that far.  Guillen gets on at nearly the exact same rate but hits with 20-30% more power. (12 million??????)

To sum it up, I just don't get it.  I've read it, the Royals now have cash to spend, so lets spend it baby.  But why?  The Mariners would not even offer him 9 Mil.  So is GMDM that right or are the Mariners laughing at us?  

So far I've been extremely negative.  I'm gonna reserve my judgment on GMDM's offseason so far.  Maybe there are some tricks left up his sleeves.  Maybe Kuroda and Fukudome are on their way.  Maybe we'll see DDJ moved for a decent #3 starter.  At this point its still 2 cold months before teams report, so a lot can happen.

But right now, Jose Guillen alone, and forgoing our Rule 5 pick just don't make sense.

Jose Guillen Bill James 2008

333/455/788

ZIPS 2008

327/432/759

At this point, I would absolutely love to be wrong.  But the only positive I see right now is he's only here for three years.

Poll

Does Gulllen post an OPS over 800 in 2008

41%

No

20 votes

58%

Yes

28 votes

48 votes | Poll has closed

Can anyone say, "Here's a ticket for the early flight Jason?"

Seriously, Cantu does have some spots on his record, but he's 25 and a few years removed from 28 HR's.

Minimum risk, bye bye Jason, or for that matter its an easy way to get rid of Emil-io also.

Jorge Cantu  - 26 years old  (Jan BDAY)

1299 AB's     244 K/66 BB      273/312/450

Emil               - 33 years old

1842 AB's     403 K/169 BB     262/329/401

And, BTW, did any of you read GMDM say that hey may not even take a Rule 5 guy?  Is he going crazy, or is it just some more of his crazy Jedi mind tricks?  What are we, 3 overall?  There are some live arms we could plug into the bullpen right away, and release that uggghhh....  Smith guy.

Bumped from the diaries-RR

While I'm on a roll I just thought I'd finish up my last post by writing who else I'd like to see in Royals blue next year.

In addition to signing Jones, my crystal ball shows something like...

1.  Resign David Riske to anything at or less than 3yrs/12mil.  Man, I don't know about you all, but watching a solid bullpen this last year was an absolute treat.  Losing games because Burgos threw 9 splitters a row in the dirt or other mishaps (Affeldt,Macdougal,etc.) was truly heartbreaking.  After a horrendous April, Riske was totally solid.  
2. While a fan favorite, since we've "signed" Andruw Jones at this point, David "What would Dejesus do" is expendable.  And his cheap contract could entice other teams to part ways with two or perhaps three low B/high C level prospects.  SS/1B anyone?
3. As mentioned by others, I'd like to sign Francisco Cordero.  This is based on a huge IF.  That is, if he's willing to sign at 3yr/27mil.  I'm hearing on Rotoworld and elsewhere that he's wanting a Billy Wagneresque 4/43.  While I don't think he will get that, he's still due for some money.  The whole point to signing Cordero is to free up Soria into the starting rotation, which is almost a transaction by itself.  And, good thing we resigned David Riske right?  
4. Trade for Dontrelle Willis.  I'm hearing that the Marlins want 3 or 4 prospects for the D-Train.  We could use a lefty starter, well duh.  He's become increasingly hittable the last few years and his HR totals have gone up.  Maybe a new set of opponents could help him?  Slightly far fetched given the AL is known to be superior, but hey, its possible.  So, for the whole prospect giving up part.  To me, I only see a few untouchables from our perspective.  These include young Alex Gordon, the soon to be married Billy Butler, Cool Hand Luke, Mikey Moosetacos, Mexican Tough and Dan "My bio says I'm only 20 but thats not gonna stop me from drinking Coronas and passing out on my toilet naked" Cortes.  (http://royaleswithcheese.blogspot.com/2007_01_01_archive.html).  So yeah, that is a few "untouchables", but I would offer most three person combos of guys including Justin Huber, Chris Lubanski (if not taken Rule 5), Tyler Lumsden, Billy Buckner, Nunez, Pimentel, Mitch Maier, etc.  

So, after this brilliant offseason, and a few other moves, GM Feel the Royals Fever's 2008 opening day roster shapes up as...

1. Joey Gathright LF
   
2. Mark Teahen RF
   
3. Andruw Jones CF
   
4. Billy Butler DH
   
5. Alex Gordon 3B
   
6. John Buck C
   
7. Mark Grudzielanek 2B
   
8. Shealy/Huber  1B
   
9. Tony Pena SS
1. Gil Meche
   
2. Dontrelle Willis
   
3. Zack Greinke
   
4. Brian Bannister
   
5. Joakim Soria

BP. David Riske setting up Francisco Cordero.

And beautifully, we have so many options after this for long relief and setup options that it is pointless mentioning them all.

Just reviewing this post has given me shivers up and down my spine.  I would honestly run around my apartment naked 85x if this happened (Its 23 deg here in Lawrence mind you).  I seriously think this team would be a AL Central FAVORITE, even if just in my mind.

Well I'm finally tired now, happy Thanksgiving everyone, and go Jayhawks!

The Angels just signed Torii Hunter.  I got the report from MLB on my cell phone.  Apparently it is a five year deal, although what the dollar signs point to is unknown as of yet.

Man, I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm having a huge sigh of relief.  As mentioned by countless others here, Torii Hunter is coming off a career year and most projections of 32 year old CF's show EXTREMELY sharp drop offs in production during the last 2-3 years of the contract he just signed.

The Royals simply could not afford to tie up this kind of money for a 32 year old player with a career OPS of 793.  

This is just total speculation, but I believe Dayton Moore's "flirting" with Hunter is more akin to letting the market know the Royals are gonna be a fixture in the free market mix.  Like last year when we let the baseball insiders know that we were in signing Gil Meche (albeit we were insanely/overzealously criticised at the time for doing so).

So anyways, best luck to Torii in Los Angeles.  Vlad and Torii back to back is gonna be a dangerous combo for the next 2-3 years.

Now, without going into too much detail, SIGN Andruw Jones if possible to a deal similar to Hunter's.  Coming off a down year, I believe we may be able to get him slightly cheaper.  All of the worry about Jones to me is way overhyped.  He's too fat, blah blah blah.  Defensive range I admit has declined somewhat, but not terribly.  He's a great CF with huge pop in his bat.

Boras won't get what he's asking for in the media.  My hunch is that Jones might go against Boras' wishes and sign a 12 mil one year contract with huge incentives somewhere.  But, if the Royals could nab a 30 year old plus CF with a career 839 OPS for about 5/80ish, then DO IT!  

Poll

If you were GMDM, would you sign Andruw Jones for 5/90?

50%

Yes

33 votes

50%

No

33 votes

66 votes | Poll has closed

The basics:

Home: Schwenskville, PA
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Drafted: 2003   #5 Overall
Age: 22
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 205

The numbers:
    PA        HR    K/BB        SB vs CS        BA/OBP/SLUG
'04    537         9     104/43         16      11         275/336/414
'05    581        28     131/38        14      1            301/349/554
'06    613        15    112/72        11      7            282/369/475
'07 WIC 274        8    43/28        3        5            292/359/475

Baseball Prospectus lists two comparables as Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran.  Some players have emerged from the 2003 draft as big leaguers thus far.  A few interesting picks taken after Chris include Aaron Hill, SS for the Jays with good pop in his bat (#13 overall).  Also, Braves catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia was taken in the supplemental round. (After Mitch Maier I might add)

But anyways, I'm not concerned with the pick of Lubanski at #5. He was called the premier high school hitter in the northeast, and his combination of size and speed must have been incredibly alluring to scouts.  After the draft many said that he was a CF in the mold of Johnny Damon.  That has proven to be a little off base as Chris's speed has not panned out how many hoped.  It has also been said that Chris has "good makeup".  This quality among draftees' seems to becoming a positive trend in the Royals organization.

Looking at his numbers, the most encouraging thing I see is his K/BB.  Despite 2004 to 2005, his plate discipline looks to have really improved.  It is also noteworthy that Chris is still only 22.  He played last year at Wichita a full year younger than Alex Gordon.  This makes me very optimistic.  We would all love to see Chris replicate something similar to his HR explosion in hitter friendly High Desert.  I still thank that in the next 2-3 years he could develop into a plus plus power hitter.  It will be very interesting to see how Chris responds to AAA pitching.  I'll also be looking at who's batting around him in the lineup.  It is clear that Wichita has become a black hole this year as nearly all "prospects" have moved up to the O Royals club.  If he can maintain his plate discipline, I think that Chris could potentially hit as many as 15-18 HR's during the second half in a better Omaha lineup.  

Longterm, I look for Chris to crack the big leagues sometime in 2008 and be the Royals starting LF come opening day 2009 at 24 years old.

To finish, a scout told BP in 2006 that, "There's no prospect with a less certain future; Lubanski might become a superstar or he might become Todd Dunwoody."  Only time will tell.  I'd love to read comments about what you guys think about Chris's future, and especially the future outfield of the Royals.  

Some Chris Lubanski links:

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=3923&u_sid=10071034  - Omaha World Herald story
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/id/2954289410  -  Talks about "Skill Show"
http://www.chrislubanski.net/fanclub.htm    - An invitation to join his fanclub
http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/PN/public/BtCheck.cfm?txtType=HTM&sessYr=2003&sess Ind=0&billBody=S&billTyp=R&billNbr=0104&pn=0923 - The Pennsylvania State Senate issues a formal congratulation to Chris after being drafted