SB Nation User Blog: Ryan

Sabathia trade talks with Milwaukee heating up

Ryan — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 02:01:49 -0000

From the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal's Tom Haudricourt:

I just spoke with general manager Doug Melvin who told me he's waiting to see if the Cleveland Indians will accept his trade proposal for left-hander C.C. Sabathia.

"Mark said he'd be in touch with me," said Melvin, referring to Cleveland general manager Mark Shapiro. "I'm sure they've got to think through everything."

[snip]

Several names have been included in trade rumors involving the Brewers but their offer is thought to center on outfielder Matt LaPorta, their top minor-league prospect. LaPorta, currently playing at Class AA Huntsville, was the Brewers' first-round draft pick in 2007.

[UPDATE]: Buster Olney with more information on the talks:

The Brewers and Indians have had extensive talks about Sabathia, and if a deal is made, it is likely that Double-A outfielder Matt LaPorta, who has 20 homers for Huntsville, would be in the middle of the package sent to Cleveland. According to sources, the Brewers have been reluctant to part with two of their best prospects, preferring the Indians fill out the trade from a group of players not considered to be at LaPorta's level. The Brewers' Double-A team at Huntsville is loaded, from shortstop Alcides Escobar to third baseman Mat Gamel to catcher Angel Salome.

More updates/commentary to follow.

Game Thread: July 5, 2008

Ryan — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 03:30:38 -0000

Cleveland at Minnesota, 7:10 PM (STO)

Game Thread: July 4, 2008

Ryan — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 03:29:15 -0000

Cleveland at Minnesota, 7:10 PM (STO)

Game Thread: July 2, 2008

Ryan — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:12:53 -0000

Cleveland at Chicago, 8:11 PM (STO)

Game Eighty-Four: It's Over

Ryan — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 04:34:18 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Cliff Lee	.413	Joe Borowski	-.791
Casey Blake	.406	Jhonny Peralta	-.128
Rafael Betancourt	.106	Grady Sizemore	-.121

The end was coming, but it still sucks.

As I mentioned earlier in the week, the schedule was set up for the Indians to make a lot of ground. If they had taken 6 out of 8 against divisional opponents, then split the four-game series against Tampa going into the All-Star Break, they would still have had a lot to make up, but coming back would nevertheless be plausible. Especially with Fausto Carmona due back in the rotation, and Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner now being a few weeks away from returning to the lineup.

But that stretch also meant that one bad series would end the season. Which has happened. Now it's time for Mark Shapiro to take stock of the organization, identify the most pressing needs, and field about ten thousand calls for CC Sabathia. (Other goals: get somebody to overpay for Casey Blake and Paul Byrd, and foist David Dellucci on somebody.)

The game itself was a nice microcosm of this year's team. Cliff Lee again pitched magnificently, but couldn't stick around long enough for the offense to score its second run of the game. And when the Indians did take the lead, Joe Borowski blew the lead and the game. One good thing about the end of competitiveness is that the Indians don't have to pretend to need Borowski closing or even pitching in games.

Game Thread: July 1, 2008

Ryan — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 23:28:12 -0000

Cleveland at Chicago, 8:11 PM (STO)

Game Thread: June 30, 2008

Ryan — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 22:18:33 -0000

Cleveland at Chicago, 8:11 PM (STO)

The Indians' prospects are such that losing this series probably means the season is over. Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings say that the Indians are a better team than their 37-45 record indicates, but leaving Chicago down 10 or more games with four teams ahead of them is a deficit no amount of true talent can overcome. Not with two-fifth of the rotation and two of their top three hitters on the DL.

So as pathetic as it may sound, this series is the first round of the playoffs for the Indians. If they win, they'll keep Sabathia and move on to Minnesota. Lose, and any or all of their pending free agents won't be around for long.

Game Thread: June 29, 2008

Ryan — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 19:22:23 -0000

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:05 PM (STO)

Game Thread: June 28, 2008

Ryan — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 19:20:41 -0000

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 7:05 PM (STO)

Game Eighty: Indians 6, Reds 0

Ryan — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 18:50:53 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
CC Sabathia	.391	Jhonny Peralta	-.102
Grady Sizemore	.212	David Dellucci	-.066
Shin-Soo Choo	.123	Ryan Garko	-.066

Games like last night are opinion shifters. You see CC Sabathia dominate a game a day after Cliff Lee did the same and think "you know, who cares if the Indians don't have an offence or a bullpen?" Even without Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, the rotation has been one of the best in baseball (3.68 ERA).

But even though the Indians are just 7.5 games out of first, they'd have to catch and pass three other teams (four if you include the Royals). The schedule after the Reds leave town is set up so that the Indians can make up ground quickly:

June 30-July 2: @ Chicago

July 4-6: @Minnesota

July 8-9: @Detroit

The key to this stretch are the two off days on either side of the Minnesota series, which should allow Sabathia and Lee to make two starts apiece. If the Indians can run off 6 of 8, Mark Shapiro probably isn't going to listen to offers for Sabathia. But if they drop 6 of 8, the season's essentially over.