I was inspired by the possible 2008 lineup Cheat posted yesterday so I decided to figure out my semi-realistic best case scenario for next year.  Tell me if I'm delusional.

Starting lineup
Ichiro - CF (signed as FA)
Iguchi - 2B (re-signed)
Thome - DH
Konerko - 1B
Saltalamacchia - C (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)
Fields - 3B
Milledge - LF (acquired from NYM via trade of Contreras)
Sweeney - RF
Escobar - SS (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)

That looks pretty promising to me.  I'd prefer it if you could trade Garland to Atlanta instead of Buehrle and then re-sign Buehrle, but I'm not sure that's even a semi-realistic option.  I'd also be open to somebody else at 2B over Iguchi, but he seemed like he'd be a reasonably cost-effective option.

I'd estimate the cost of the above lineup at less than $45 million (since the 5-9 hitters would all be making near the league minimum), leaving, I'd guess, about $65 million for the rotation, bullpen and bench.  Garland and Vazquez account for about $24 mil of that, while filling out the rest of the rotation with Danks, Floyd, and Gio/Egbert/Russell/Broadway would be incredibly cheap, leaving you with nearly $40 mil and only the bullpen and bench left to pay.

One thing I'm not sure about is whether we'd be able to get rid of Crede, Mack, AJ, and Ozuna's salaries.  Or even all of Contreras's.  If you get Salty you have to get rid of AJ (he won't be a back up), and I'm not sure what will be done with Crede.  I think we're stuck giving Ozuna a million bucks (even if he doesn't play), and we might be stuck with Mack as well.  In that scenario, Mack, Hall, Terrero, and Ozuna account for another $7 mil or so, and you'll still need a backup who can play both middle infield positions. Though I hate the thought of Cintron returning, it could be him at $2 mil, since we don't have a worthwhile 2B/SS type in the system.  

So now the bench is filled and you've still got about $30 mil by my calculations and just the bullpen to pay for.  Jenks and Logan seem like locks to be back, and probably Thornton as well.  That's less than $2 mil at their present cost, but I suppose Jenks could get a raise.  I'm guessing MacDougal might be gone, so you need to fill in three more guys from the rest of the guys we've seen this year (maybe Day and Aardsma, no thanks on Sisco, Masset, and Bukvich), minor league possibilities, and anything you get back from trading Dye and Pierzynski.  So let's throw another $4 mil at the bullpen to account for a possible raise for Jenks and either MacDougal staying or another veteran coming in, which brings our total payroll to only $86 million.

If you hold onto Crede, he'll still probably get a small raise in arbitration (because players always do), so let's say $6 million for him.  And maybe you have to pay some of Contreras's salary, so let's say another $4 and put the total at $96 million.

Now, why not give Mark Buehrle a backloaded 5 yr/$75 mil deal and come in just under $110 mil for 2008? If he's still available, that's one option, but if he's not, you could save your money, play out 2008, and then break the bank on Peavy, Sabathia, or Santana, all eligible to become free agents after next year.  Carl Crawford and Mark Teixeira will also be in the free agent class.

What do you guys think?  Pipe dream?  Plausible?

With the Sox's black hole in left field, there's been a lot of talk around here about the tantalizing outfield options that will be hitting free agency after the season.  So I decided to take a look at who's available and try to break down who fits best with the Sox.  First, here's the list of '08 free agent OFs:

Left fielders
Eric Byrnes (32)
Adam Dunn (28) - $13MM club option for '08
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08
Luis Gonzalez (40)
Barry Bonds (43)
Brad Wilkerson (31)

Center fielders
Ichiro Suzuki (34)
Andruw Jones (31)
Torii Hunter (32)
Eric Byrnes (32)
Corey Patterson (28)
Milton Bradley (30)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Kenny Lofton (41)

Right fielders
Jermaine Dye (34)
Bobby Abreu (34) - $16MM club option for '08
Ichiro Suzuki (34)
Milton Bradley (30)
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08
Trot Nixon (34)
Jose Guillen (32) - $9MM club option for '08
Shawn Green (35) - $10MM club option for '08
Eric Hinske (30)

Now that we have the list, let's play some Survivor and start voting these guys off White Sox island.  20 will enter, only one will remain.

20
Let's get rid of Barry Bonds first.  Not just because everyone hates him, but because paying $16 million for one year of a 43-year-old outfielder who should really be a DH doesn't make sense for the Sox.

19
Then I think we can reasonably eliminate Luis Gonzalez and Kenny Lofton for being too old.  The Sox don't want to become the Midwest Giants.

17
And next we'll vote off Shawn Green and Mike Cameron for being pretty old and not that good anymore.

15
That brings us to guys like Wilkerson, Patterson, Bradley, Nixon, Guillen, and Hinske, who are either declining, injury prone, crazy, and/or career underachievers/just not that good.  Although some team will probably hit the jackpot and get a productive year out of one of these guys at a reasonable cost, the Sox's outfield situation doesn't really call for a gamble on a question mark like one of these guys.

9
Then there's Adam Dunn, Geoff Jenkins, and Bobby Abreu, all of whom are intriguing options but are almost guaranteed to have their club options picked up for 2008.  It's possible if Abreu continues to struggle this year that the Yankees decide to bail on him and let Melky play, but for the purposes of this analysis, let's assume he re-signs and drop all three of these guys from our consideration.

6
That leaves us with Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Jermaine Dye, Eric Byrnes, and legendary White Sox pie-bringer Aaron Rowand.

To make the first cut, it seems obvious to compare Byrnes and Rowand, who seem like similar players:

Byrnes will be 32 at the beginning of the 2008 season, has a career OPS+ of 100 and RC27 of 5.12, and can adequately play all three outfield positions.

Rowand will be 30 to start the '08 season, has a career OPS+ of 103 and RC27 of 5.16, plays excellent centerfield defense, and is legendary among Sox fans for his grit, hustle, leadership, team spirit, and clubhouse bonhomie.

Basically, they're the same player, and likely to cost the same, but Rowand is younger and his return would be a hit with many Sox fans.  So Byrnes can surf off the island.

5
But Rowand is still low man on the totem pole, so now he has to survive a comparison with Torii Hunter.  Hunter will be 32 to start '08, has a career OPS+ of 104 and RC27 of 5.18, and plays Gold Glove centerfield defense.  Surprisingly, Hunter has not been that much more productive than Rowand.  Rowand even has 5 more Win Shares since 2004 (58-53).  So, considering that Hunter is likely to cost far more than Rowand for similar production, Rowand wins again, and his legend grows.

4
But now he has to face a fellow 2005 White Sox hero in Jermaine Dye.  Jermaine will be 34 next season, has a career OPS+ of 110 and RC27 of 5.82, and appears to be a rapidly declining defensive outfielder headed for DH duty in the near future.  So, Dye is obviously the superior offensive player to Rowand, but his declining skills in the outfield, age, and likely cost (a least double what Rowand would cost per year) all weigh against him.  In this case, the Sox avoid being saddled with a large contract for an ageing player and choose Rowand once again.

3
Note: I'm not one of these crazy Rowand fans.  I'm as surprised as anybody that he's made it this far.  So let's end this nonsense and compare Rowand to Andruw Jones:

Jones will also be 30 next season, has a career OPS+ of 117 and RC27 of 5.92, and plays what is now overrated but still good centerfield defense.  Jones has 74 Win Shares since '04 compared to Rowand's 58.  Also, Rowand's most similar players are guys like Carl Everett, Shea Hillenbrand, and Mike Lamb, whereas Jones's are Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews, and Johnny Bench.  In terms of past and likely future production, there's no comparision.  But what about the money?

A realistic contract for a player of Rowand's caliber would probably be something like 4 years/$24 million, whereas Jones will be looking for Carlos Lee/Soriano-type money, along the lines of say 7 years/$120 million.  Considering Jones's questionable conditioning habits over the years, I don't have much doubt that this contract would be an albatross by 2011, by which time Jones will have been shifted to a corner outfield spot, diminishing the value of his production.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think Rowand is the better value in terms of future roster construction and financial flexibility.

2
Finally, there's Ichiro.  34 in 2008, career OPS+ of 120 and RC27 of 6.35, and excellent defense in both right and centerfield.  84 win shares since 2004.  The only true leadoff hitter on this list and, to me, unquestionably the best all around player.  So let's talk money.  Like Jones, Ichiro will also demand Lee/Soriano-type dollars.  One thing that might be more flexible are the years of the deal, because of his age.  Even still, you're probably looking at a 6 year contract worth about $100 million for a player who will be 40 years old when it ends.  Unlike Jones, though, Ichiro's conditioning is impeccable, as is his batting eye, and, even as age begins to slow him down, he should be able to adjust his hitting approach somewhat to add a little power, which we've all seen him flash.

1
So here the incredible journey of Aaron Rowand ends.  Ichiro earns the title of Sole Survivor and joins the crew of the Pale Hose 8.

Well, it's Friday morning and I'm hungover at work.  What better way to waste time than to write a recap of last night's Sox minor league action.

Charlotte 5, Syracuse 4 (Game 1); Charlotte 2, Syracuse 7 (Game 2)
Charlie Haeger pitched 6 innings in game 1 of a doubleheader, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits, 3 of which were homers, walking 1, and striking out four.  Boone Logan pitched two scoreless innings of relief with 1 hit, 1walk, and 1 strikeout, and Paulino Reynoso vultured a win when the Knights scored in the bottom of the ninth.  At the plate, Luis Terrero was the hitting star, going 2-4 with a 3-run homer and raising his average to .304.  Josh Fields went 1-4 with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts, while Ryan Sweeney was 0-3 with a walk and a K.

In game 2, Lance Broadway was the hard luck loser after giving up a 2-run homer and scattering 8 other hits in a 5K, 0BB, 6 inning effort.  Corwin Malone was rocked for 5 runs in the 7th to solidify the loss for the Knights.  Josh Fields was hitless in one official at-bat, but drew two walks and scored a run.  Ryan Sweeney went 1-3 with an RBI double and a run scored and sits at .286 on the year.

Birmingham 5, Mobile 2
Jack Egbert got the victory, giving up 2 runs on just 4 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 5 in six innings of work.  Catcher Donny Lucy continued his hot hitting, going 2-4 with 2 doubles and a run scored and raising his average to .444.   Tom Collaro added a hit, a walk, and run with his 1-3 effort, but still managed to lower his average to .355.  Chris Getz had a rough night, going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts, and Robert Valido continued to struggle, going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts and falling to .069/.100/.103 on the young season.

Winston-Salem 3, Myrtle Beach 5 (Game 1), Winston-Salem 1, Myrtle Beach 10 (Game 2)
The Warthogs also played a twin bill on Thursday, but couldn't get much going in either game.  In the first game, Kyle McCulloch surrendered 4 runs on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 3 in 5 innings.  32-year-old starter Joe Gannon got rocked in game 2, allowing 7 runs (6 earned) on 6 hits and 4 walks.  Perhaps it's time for someone to pull Joe aside and gently encourage him to hang up the spikes.  John Lujan worked one scoreless inning of relief, striking out 1.  On the other side of the ball, Aaron Cunningham continued his assault on Carolina League pitching, going 4-7 on the day, bringing his average to .455, while Micah Schnurstein cooled off with an 0-6, 4 K line.  Cole Armstrong and Tyler Reves (neither of whom I know anything about) both went 2-3 in game 1 and are batting .353 and .444, respectively.  Both are 23 and are listed as catchers, though Reves played first base.

Kannapolis 3, Rome 2
21-year-old Dominican right-hander Faustino De Los Santos gave up a run on one hit and 4 walks while striking out 4 in 4.2 innings, but didn't qualify for the win, which went to Jose Zazueta.  Kanekoa Texeira and Steve Spurgeon each pitched a scoreless inning of relief.  Chris Carter went 2-4 and Anderson Gomes went 1-3 with a triple and a walk in the win.

If you're like me, you screamed "Oh no, not Timo!" in your head when you saw that headline.  Luckily, it's not everyone's favorite clutch-hitting trilingual 5th outfielder.

From ChicagoSports.com:

In an effort to fortify their offense against left-handed pitching, the White Sox signed first baseman/designated hitter Eduardo Perez to a minor league contract Monday.

Perez, 37, has played over parts of 13 major league seasons, slugging 79 home runs. He batted .253 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 80 games with Cleveland and Seattle last season. He hit all nine of his homers against left-handers last season.

It seems like the Tribune's Mark Gonzales brings up the possibility of trading for Michael Young every time he writes about ways the Sox can improve in 2007.  I'm not sure if this is a pet idea of his or if he has some inside info, but with the way Hawk kept gushing about Young toward the end of the year, it makes you wonder if there were some organizational rumblings about making a play for him.  

Presumably, we would give up Garcia/Vazquez and Uribe for Young and a pitching prospect (Danks? Diamond? Volquez? wishful thinking?).  Although Young seems more ideally suited to the #2 hole to me, he could certainly fill the void in the leadoff spot and would be an offensive improvement over Uribe.  Of course, he'd be a defensive downgrade, but based on this year's performance, not a liability in the field.

Trading a starting pitcher to acquire Young would probably leave the hole in left field to be filled by a free agent stopgap like Dave Roberts until Sweeney or Fields come around (hopefully!).

So, do you like this idea or would you prefer the Sox use their biggest trading chip to address other areas of weakness like left field and the bullpen?

The following is a list of the 2006 playoff teams in order of their "Soxness," and thus provides a guide to which teams to root for in the postseason.

Oakland Athletics
Frank Thomas - 1959 games from 1990-2005; all-time Sox top ten in 25 of 30 of the offensive categories listed on Baseball-Reference.com, first in 17 of those categories; greatest hitter in team history
Estaban Loaiza - 55 starts from 2003-04; 21-game winner and All-Star Game starter in 2003; traded for Jose Contreras
D'Angelo Jimenez - 100 games from 2002-03

New York Mets
Jose Valentin - 672 games from 2000-04; all-time Sox top ten in HR, SLG, and AB/HR
Roberto Hernandez - 345 games from 1991-97; second in team history in saves
Orlando Hernandez - 22 starts in 2005; magical 2005 ALDS relief appearance
Julio Franco - 112 games in 1994
Chad Bradford - 44 games from 1998-2000

Detroit Tigers
Magglio Ordonez - 1001 games from 1997-2004; all-time Sox top ten in 12 offensive categories
Jason Grilli - 8 starts in 2004

San Diego Padres
Mike Cameron - 296 games from 1991-95; traded for Paul Konerko
Geoff Blum - 31 games in 2005; improbable game-winning home run in longest game in World Series history
Jon Adkins - 59 games from 2003-05
Alan Embree - 39 games in 2001

Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenny Lofton - 93 games in 2002
Olmedo Saenz - 5 games in 1994

New York Yankees
Tanyon Sturtze - 11 games from 1999-2000

St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Miles - 8 games in 2003

Minnesota Twins
No former White Sox

Yet another reason to root against the Twinkies!

I just saw this posted on Buster Olney's blog at ESPN.com:

Heard a good trade rumor late Sunday, and it makes some sense on the face of it (and for now, it stands as speculation, because I didn't have a chance to call either the White Sox or the Giants to check out whether this has any roots). A talent evaluator has heard that the White Sox would trade pitcher Brandon McCarthy and center fielder Brian Anderson to the San Francisco Giants for Jason Schmidt. This would be a classic Kenny Williams move, getting an impact-type pitcher in Schmidt to augment a rotation that has a 4.60 ERA, and from the Giants' perspective, adding McCarthy, in particular, would allow them to get younger, while getting something for Schmidt before he becomes a free agent; Anderson would give the Giants an outfielder who is less than 4,525 years old.

Now, the deal would seem a little top-heavy in favor of the Giants, in this current marketplace in which young players have such great value; maybe some other part would be headed to Chicago.

And what would the White Sox do for a center fielder? Well, they could probably make a deal for a guy they know and love -- Aaron Rowand, who might be one of the pieces sold off by the Philadelphia Phillies before the trade deadline. And maybe Williams would use one of his excess starting pitchers to get it done.

This sounds absolutely asinine to me and I really hope there isn't any truth to it.  Thoughts?

Since a lot of people seem to be incredibly pessimistic and even downright unhappy with the Sox right now, despite one of the best starts in team history, I thought I'd link to this article to remind everyone that things are actually going pretty well so far.  I found points 2, 3, and 5 particularly insightful and encouraging for the long-term success of the team.  Maybe it just takes an objective outsider's perspective to convince us not to dwell too heavily on the minutiae and daily ups and downs of the ballclub and take the long view.

I just happened to stumble across the fact that today is Joe Crede's 28th birthday.  To celebrate, I decided to project a full season of stats for everone's favorite mancrush based on the 50 games he's played (regular and postseason) since his epiphanic DL stint last year.

Here are the 50-game numbers:

AB: 173
H: 57
R: 29
2B: 12
HR: 14
RBI: 41
BB: 10
SO: 18
AVG: .329
OBP: .364
SLG: .642
OPS: 1.006
AB/HR: 12.36

To make things easy, I decided on 150 games played for a season, which seems reasonable to me. Obviously, the rate stats would stay the same, but here are the counting stats multiplied by 3:

AB: 519
H: 171
R: 87
2B: 36
HR: 42
RBI: 123
BB: 30
SO: 54

Uh, wow.  If he actually keeps this up, it's going to be a hell of a year on the South Side once again.

Happy Birthday, Joe!

It's amazing what a championship can do for your popularity.  The Sox vaulted to 13th out of the 92 professional MLB, NFL, and NBA franchises in ESPN's poll of fan statisfaction, something they call the Ultimate Standings.  Quite a leap after averaging an overall rating of 67 the last three years.  They're also number 5 in all of baseball and Ozzie is ranked the the second most satisfactory coach/manager in the three major sports behind only Bill Belichick.  And that's fair.  The Ozzeroo does need to bring home two more trophies in the next few years.

The Sox are also tops among Chicago's pro teams.  Somewhat surprisingly, the [other MLB team in Chicago] finished last in town and 73 out of 92 overall.  So despite their popularity, dissatisfaction is at an all time high on the north side.  I guess they should have just kept losing and stayed lovable.  Now, at least according to these rankings, their fans think the players suck, the manager sucks, the owner sucks, and the team has little chance to win.  Oh, but the stadium is apparently still really neat! (Sorry, I know it's not exactly encouraged around here, but I just couldn't resist tweaking the Flubbies).

I don't know if anybody noticed it, but Rob Neyer addressed the horrendous Gold Glove choices recently and broke down the AL shortstops.  Guess who came out on top?

I've received a few e-mail messages referencing Baseball Prospectus and Derek Jeter, so I did some digging. And if there's a sabermetric consensus regarding Jeter's defense, it most certainly is not that he's an outstanding fielder. BP's Clay Davenport recently described Jeter as "solidly above average," and the closest Davenport came to endorsing Jeter was when he wrote that he'd choose Jeter over Orlando Cabrera (who didn't have a particularly good season).

A Gold Glover isn't supposed to be "solidly above average," and anyway, that's just one method (the difference in fielding runs between the starter and his replacement). There are others. I've collected FRAR, win shares (which measures each player's contribution to his team's wins), and ultimate zone ratings (credits fielders for outs made) for every major leaguer who played at least 1,000 innings at shortstop in 2005. Below are where some of the top Gold Glove candidates ranked in each category:

                      WS  UZR  FRAR  
Juan Uribe           1   2    2  
Jhonny Peralta     2   5    1  
Orlando Cabrera  3   3    3  
Miguel Tejada      5   1    6  
Derek Jeter         4   9    4  

Juan Uribe is the obvious winner here. Considering that the White Sox were the biggest story in the American League, and that the key to their success was run prevention, you'd think the Gold Glove voters would have considered the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the fielders had something to do with all those low ERAs.

Nope. No love for Juan Uribe, or Aaron Rowand, or Joe Crede, not even for Mark Buehrle. Maybe next year.

With some of the recent talk about who should make the All-Star game, I decided to figure out who would make it according to Win Shares (WS).  I got the info from the Hardball Times.  Ties in Win Shares (which really only came into play at the end of the bench or bullpen) were broken by Win Shares Above Bench (sort of like Win Share VORP), and if that was tied, either Win Share Percentage (Win Shares over innings played), positional need, or a need for left/right-handed balance.  For the starters tied with bench guys, I gave the nod to the player with the better career numbers.

Each All-Star roster includes 32 players, and this year there's a DH.  Based on previous years' rosters, I broke it down to include the starting 9, 7 starting pitchers, 5 relief pitchers (4 closers and 1 middle reliever), 6 bench infielders, 4 bench outfielders, and 1 bench catcher.  As you'll see, I ignored the absurd "1 guy from every team" rule.  For the National League, there weren't 6 deserving infielders, so I gave them one more outfielder and one more reliever instead.  Could easily have been another backup catcher, too.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Starters
 C - Jason Varitek (BOS) 9 WS
1B - Richie Sexson (SEA) 10 WS
2B - Brian Roberts (BAL) 15 WS
3B - Alex Rodriguez (NYY) 13 WS
SS - Miguel Tejada (BAL) 15 WS
LF - Manny Ramirez (BOS) 10 WS
CF - Johnny Damon (BOS) 12 WS
RF - Gary Sheffield (NYY) 12 WS
DH - David Ortiz (BOS) 10 WS

Pitchers
SP - Roy Halladay (TOR) 14 WS
SP - Kenny Rogers (TEX) 12 WS
SP - Mark Buehrle (CWS) 12 WS
SP - Jon Garland (CWS) 11 WS
SP - Chris Young (TEX) 9 WS
SP - Johan Santana (MIN) 9 WS
SP - Bartolo Colon (LAA) 8 WS
RP - B.J. Ryan (BAL) 6 WS
RP - Dustin Hermanson (CWS) 6 WS
RP - Eddie Guardado (SEA) 5 WS
RP - Joe Nathan (MIN) 5 WS
RP - Jesse Crain (MIN) 6 WS

Bench
 C - Joe Mauer (MIN) 8 WS
IF - Melvin Mora (BAL) 12 WS
IF - Brandon Inge (DET) 10 WS
IF - Darrin Erstad (LAA) 10 WS
IF - Julio Lugo (TB) 10 WS
IF - Chone Figgins (LAA) 9 WS
IF - Mark Teixeira (TEX) 9 WS
OF - Aaron Rowand (CWS) 10 WS
OF - Raul Ibanez (SEA) 9 WS
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (LAA) 9 WS
OF - Garrett Anderson (LAA) 9 WS

Total AL Win Shares: 314

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Starters
 C - Michael Barrett (CHC) 9 WS
1B - Derrek Lee (CHC) 19 WS
2B - Jeff Kent (LAD) 14 WS
3B - David Wright (NYM) 10 WS
SS - David Eckstein (STL) 11 WS
LF - Luis Gonzalez (AZ) 14 WS
CF - Jim Edmonds (STL) 12 WS
RF - Bobby Abreu (PHI) 16 WS
DH - Albert Pujols (STL) 16 WS

Pitchers
SP - Dontrelle Willis (FLA) 13 WS
SP - Roger Clemens (HOU) 13 WS
SP - Brett Myers (PHI) 10 WS
SP - Pedro Martinez (NYM) 10 WS
SP - Roy Oswalt (HOU) 10 WS
SP - Jason Marquis (STL) 9 WS
SP - Brandon Webb (AZ) 8 WS
RP - Chad Cordero (WAS) 6 WS
RP - Billy Wagner (PHI) 5 WS
RP - Todd Jones (FLA) 5 WS
RP - Brian Fuentes (COL) 5 WS
RP - Brad Lidge (HOU) 4 WS
RP - Lance Cormier (AZ) 5 WS

Bench
 C - Johnny Estrada (ATL) 8 WS
IF - Nick Johnson (WAS) 16 WS
IF - Craig Counsell (AZ) 12 WS
IF - Carlos Delgado (FLA) 11 WS
IF - Rob Mackowiak (PIT) 10 WS
OF - Adam Dunn (CIN) 12 WS
OF - Brian Giles (SD) 12 WS
OF - Brad Wilkerson (WAS) 12 WS
OF - Pat Burrell (PHI) 12 WS
OF - Jason Bay (PIT) 11 WS

Total NL Win Shares: 340

For anyone interested, the best players from each of the teams without a representative were:

1B - Travis Hafner (CLE) 8 WS
OF - Emil Brown (KC) 8 WS
OF - Mark Kotsay (OAK) 9 WS
OF - Carlos Lee (MIL) 11 WS
3B - Edgardo Alfonzo (SF) 8 WS

Damn these juicy trade rumors!  How am I supposed to get any work done now that this is all I can think about?  As many of you have probably heard, there's a fairly legitimate sounding rumor that the White Sox and A's are working on a trade of Joe Crede and Brandon McCarthy for Eric Chavez.  The question is, would that help our team?  

Well, first of all, Chavez is actually playing worse than Joe Crede this year, which is mind-boggling, when you think about it, but as any good statistician will tell you, his numbers should regress toward the mean, and the mean he's established in the last five years is of course a very good one.  He's also reported to be incredibly unhappy in Oakland with the A's performance this year and the constant rebuilding, and isn't comfortable being expected to lead a team of youngsters.  So it's reasonable to think that some of his struggles are mental, and that being injected into a winning atmosphere would energize him.  Based on his career averages, that would translate into approximately .280, 20 HR, 65 RBI if the deal was made now (about half those HR and RBI totals if we wait until the trade deadline).  We haven't had that kind of production from the left side of the plate since Ventura left town.  And of course, like Ventura, Chavez is a Gold Glover at third base, no matter what he's doing with the bat.

So, is the gamble that Chavez rediscovers his game on the South Side worth trading McCarthy? (I'll leave Crede out of the discussion since even his own mother would probably trade him if she were a Sox fan).  It's a tough call.  If the Sox believe McCarthy will be anything less than a very solid #2-caliber starter, I'd say yes.  If they think he'll be an ace one day, I'd reluctantly say no.  I'm no expert, but McCarthy's penchant for giving up the longball seems like a fixable problem for a young pitcher, and if he could correct that, he seems like he'd be lights out.  But who knows?

The other thing to consider when pondering this trade is the money involved.  Chavez is in the second year of a back-end-loaded 6 year, $66 million contract.  And I don't think Jerry Reinsdorf's arms have gotten any longer or his pockets any less deep.  I think he'd okay the extra money for this year, but you'd almost certainly be able to kiss Konerko goodbye next year and hope Ross Gload can be an everyday first baseman. Same goes for any other offseason signings.  It would also likely mean that any bullpen help the Sox might need would have to come from within the system (Jeff Bajenaru anyone? Ryan Meaux? Or, call me crazy, but could we call up Gio in September as a lefty reliever and then stick him on the post-season roster [knock on wood] if he works out, a la KRod on the 02 Angels?).  

Personally, I'm fairly comfortable with those things. What I'm least comfortable with is rolling the dice that the starting five, particularly El Duque, will stay healthy the rest of the year.  If you trade McCarthy and then a starter goes down, we're suddenly back to the 5th starter black hole of 04, praying that Josh Stewart of Felix Diaz or Sean Tracey can do the job.  Not a good spot to be in as you head down the stretch in a pennant race.

All that said, I'm with Kenny Williams: Fuck the future, let's go for it this year.  If the deal's on the table, I make it.

And pray.

I know yesterday's Sox victory was bittersweet for a lot of us because of who got the game-winning hit: Timo.  And subsequently I've read a lot of chatter about how he'll definitely be staying on the team because of that one hit (in addition to Ozzie's inexplicable fondness for playing him).  But, honestly, I have to give Kenny Williams more credit than that.  It's a very simple numbers game, and if Timo's not the odd man out, the Sox would be left with a gaping hole in their bench.  Once El Duque comes back, Kevin Walker will be sent down or designated for assignment (I don't know if he has minor league options or not), and then Ross Gload will be due to come back.  The only other even remotely reasonable options to be released or sent down other than Timo would be Pablo Ozuna, Willie Harris, Shingo Takatsu, Neal Cotts, and Gload himself.  I think you can eliminate Shingo (despite the rumors) and Cotts immediately, because it's incredibly unlikely that the Sox would carry only 10 pitchers.  So that leaves Willie, Pablo, and Ross.

Willie has done everything that's been asked of him this year.  He's come off the bench with energy, played good defense, and put up solid offensive numbers, especially OBP (.382), which is the key stat for him, as he's worked counts effectively.  He also plays both infield and outfield, although I wouldn't want him playing shortstop in anything but an emergency.

Ozuna has been an incredible find for the Sox bench.  He's hit .263 with a .349 OBP and can play third, short, outfield, and emergency first base.

Gload, of course, plays an excellent first base and so-so outfield and hit .321 with an .854 OPS last year.

And bringing up the rear is Timo, who plays outfield and emergency first base and is hitting a robust .193/.246/.298.  

Getting rid of Willie would mean getting rid of the team's second best bench player so far (after Widger) and fastest pinch runner, as well as the primary backup second baseman.  

Getting rid of Ozuna would mean getting rid of the team's most versatile bench player and primary backup shortstop and third baseman, as well as the bench's only right handed hitter other than Widger (and of course backup catchers are rarely used to pinch hit--just in case) and Everett(who's historically awful from the right side, this year notwithstanding).

Getting rid of Gload would mean getting rid of one of last year's best hitters--bench or starter--and a slick-fielding defensive first baseman who is Konerko's primary back-up.  

Getting rid of Timo would mean getting rid of the team's 5th outfielder (Carl is 4th OF/DH now with Frank back, I would think), while still leaving three other players on the bench who can play outfield if need be, play other key positions that he can't, get on base more often, run faster, and hit for better average.

Frankly, keeping Timo at this point wouldn't just be a "bad" move, it would be grossly irresponsible.  To the point that, if I was an actual stakeholder in the White Sox organization, I'd feel like a I had a decent case that KW hadn't performed proper due diligence prior to deciding to keep Timo.

So Timo must go.  There's just no other option.

This is from Jayson Stark's May 26 chat on ESPN.com:

When asked whether the Sox are for real, here's what he had to say:

I wrote about this in Rumblings this week. Only one of the last 20 teams to start 32-14 failed to make the playoffs (the '72 Mets). Yet people around baseball continue to express doubts about the White Sox. Remember, they've scored fewer runs than the Devil Rays. And that 15-6 record in one-run games is very tough to sustain. So it will all come down to pitching. If their six starting pitchers (counting El Duque and Brandon McCarthy) start 150-155 games, I think they'll make the playoffs. If they have more injury problems and have to use eight, nine, 10 starters to get through the last four months, they'll have a hard time holding off the Twins.

When asked a similar questions about the Orioles, this was his response:

Given the strides that Eric Bedard and Daniel Cabrera have made, I think the Orioles have a real chance to contend all year. They have money to spend at the deadline. And their lineup is as good as it gets. This is no slam dunk for the Yankees or Red Sox.

Okay, first of all, all but 6 teams in Major League Baseball have scored fewer runs than the Devil Rays, including the unstoppable force that is the Minnesota Twins (who have 206 to the Sox's 211).  It's nothing to be ashamed of.  Second, the Sox have only allowed 159 runs, easily best in the AL and second only to the Marlins.  But, of course, this pitching (and defense) couldn't possible hold up because El Duque's minor (and predictable) injury portends a bizarre, Cubs-like spate of injuries forcing the Sox to use four more different starting pitchers this year.  Meaning, at some point, the entire starting 5 will be on the DL and McCarthy will be leading a staff of Sean Tracey, Felix Diaz, Arnie Munoz, and Robert Person, I guess.

But in Baltimore, there are no such worries about Bedard and Cabrera, much less their dependance on Bruce Chen, Rodrigo Lopez, and Sidney Ponson.  And I'm sure they have not just one Brandon McCarthy caliber pitcher waiting in the wings, but 5.  And, I mean, their incomparable lineup is fifth in the majors in runs scored. That's two whole spots in front of those pathetic Devil Rays the White Sox can't outscore.  Of course, no mention is made of the fact that the Orioles play in a division with 3 of the 5 worst pitching teams (by RA, BAA, and OPS-against) in the AL, or that the Sox play in a division with 3 of the 5 best pitching teams (by the same stats) in the AL (not including themselves, of course).

And no mention is made of Frank Thomas coming back to help the offense.  Or the fact that Boston and New York have the deepest pockets in baseball to help them overtake the Orioles, while the Twins actually have fewer resources than the White Sox.  Gosh, why think about it for two seconds when you can just blather on inanely in support of your preseason predictions or current fancy?