SB Nation User Blog: Ryno

Jerry Crasnick Interviews Matt Thornton

Ryno — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 04:41:26 -0000

Jerry Crasnick Interviews Matt Thornton

Editor's note: Jerry Crasnick caught up with Chicago White Sox reliever Matt Thornton, a graduate of Centreville (Mich.) High School. Thornton talked about his experiences playing at the prep level.

Swings and Misses: Danks, Jenks

Ryno — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 16:32:44 -0000

Swings and Misses: Danks, Jenks

Looking at fastballs only and the percentage of them that a pitcher gets a swing and a miss on, there’s some names in interesting places. It’s probably no surprise that Scott Kazmir and Rich Harden were at or near the league best in 2008, but would you have guessed John Danks and Micah Owings would be right with them?

It’s probably not surprising that Dallas Braden had the lowest rate of fastball swinging strikes amongst starting pitchers last year given his typical 87-88 mph velocity, but would you thought Bobby Jenks and his mid-90s fastball would be near the bottom for relievers at a rate roughly half that of Ramon Ramirez? In fact, Bobby Jenks saw a significant decline in the amount of swings and misses he managed across all pitches in 2008, something to watch out for in 2009.

Carlos Quentin Complete's [sic] Me!

Ryno — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 01:00:08 -0000

Carlos Quentin Complete's [sic] Me!

It's about time I set the record straight, I have an extreme man-crush on Carlos Quentin for the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season. I'm not going to lie, it's a strong feeling and at times, it may make my wife a bit jealous. You see, I have to try to stop bringing Carlos' name up at the dinner table or when we're out running errands, but if there was one player with monster upside you could count on, it's Carlos Quentin. I have said recently that I love the potential of Quentin and I have already drafted Quentin quite early in the two expert mock drafts like the 2009 CBS League of Champions Expert League Draft and the 2009 Fantasy Man's Early Bird Expert Mock Draft. Quentin even slipped to me in the 3rd round of Mock Draft Central's first 2009 Expert Draft. With this post, I wanted to justify why I believe in Quentin for those who still don't agree.

Draft pick update

Ryno — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:31:04 -0000

Draft pick update

From ChicagoSports.com:

Texas junior outfielder Jordan Danks, the Sox's seventh-round pick in the amateur draft, took batting practice in front of several high-ranking executives.

The 6-foot-5-inch Danks, younger brother of Sox pitcher John Danks, relished taking batting practice with Paul Konerko four hours before Tuesday night's win over Cleveland. Danks was selected in the 19th round by the Sox in 2005 but elected to attend Texas. He is three semesters short of graduating.

"I feel a lot more comfortable now," Danks said. "I got some schooling [and three years of college baseball] under my belt. I have all this to start my pro career and get rolling with that and hopefully make it up here as soon as possible."

Danks is confident he will sign before the Aug. 15 deadline.

Meanwhile, the Sox plan to take another shot at Kyle Long, a 6-8, 285-pound left-hander they drafted in the 23rd round out of St. Anne's-Belfield School in Charlottesville, Va.

Within the next 10 days, the Sox plan to visit Long, the son of Hall of Fame defensive end Howie Long. He throws in the mid-90 m.p.h. range and has committed to play at Florida State.

Cubs sign Reed Johnson

Ryno — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 17:49:27 -0000

Cubs sign Reed Johnson

Because the younger and more talented Matt Murton isn't grindy enough, I guess?

Since the Cubs obviously don't think much of Murton, I wonder what it would take to pry him away.

2008 Projected Roster and Payroll

Ryno — Mon, 25 Jun 2007 19:19:31 -0000

I was inspired by the possible 2008 lineup Cheat posted yesterday so I decided to figure out my semi-realistic best case scenario for next year. Tell me if I'm delusional.

Starting lineup
Ichiro - CF (signed as FA)
Iguchi - 2B (re-signed)
Thome - DH
Konerko - 1B
Saltalamacchia - C (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)
Fields - 3B
Milledge - LF (acquired from NYM via trade of Contreras)
Sweeney - RF
Escobar - SS (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)

That looks pretty promising to me. I'd prefer it if you could trade Garland to Atlanta instead of Buehrle and then re-sign Buehrle, but I'm not sure that's even a semi-realistic option. I'd also be open to somebody else at 2B over Iguchi, but he seemed like he'd be a reasonably cost-effective option.

I'd estimate the cost of the above lineup at less than $45 million (since the 5-9 hitters would all be making near the league minimum), leaving, I'd guess, about $65 million for the rotation, bullpen and bench. Garland and Vazquez account for about $24 mil of that, while filling out the rest of the rotation with Danks, Floyd, and Gio/Egbert/Russell/Broadway would be incredibly cheap, leaving you with nearly $40 mil and only the bullpen and bench left to pay.

One thing I'm not sure about is whether we'd be able to get rid of Crede, Mack, AJ, and Ozuna's salaries. Or even all of Contreras's. If you get Salty you have to get rid of AJ (he won't be a back up), and I'm not sure what will be done with Crede. I think we're stuck giving Ozuna a million bucks (even if he doesn't play), and we might be stuck with Mack as well. In that scenario, Mack, Hall, Terrero, and Ozuna account for another $7 mil or so, and you'll still need a backup who can play both middle infield positions. Though I hate the thought of Cintron returning, it could be him at $2 mil, since we don't have a worthwhile 2B/SS type in the system.

So now the bench is filled and you've still got about $30 mil by my calculations and just the bullpen to pay for. Jenks and Logan seem like locks to be back, and probably Thornton as well. That's less than $2 mil at their present cost, but I suppose Jenks could get a raise. I'm guessing MacDougal might be gone, so you need to fill in three more guys from the rest of the guys we've seen this year (maybe Day and Aardsma, no thanks on Sisco, Masset, and Bukvich), minor league possibilities, and anything you get back from trading Dye and Pierzynski. So let's throw another $4 mil at the bullpen to account for a possible raise for Jenks and either MacDougal staying or another veteran coming in, which brings our total payroll to only $86 million.

If you hold onto Crede, he'll still probably get a small raise in arbitration (because players always do), so let's say $6 million for him. And maybe you have to pay some of Contreras's salary, so let's say another $4 and put the total at $96 million.

Now, why not give Mark Buehrle a backloaded 5 yr/$75 mil deal and come in just under $110 mil for 2008? If he's still available, that's one option, but if he's not, you could save your money, play out 2008, and then break the bank on Peavy, Sabathia, or Santana, all eligible to become free agents after next year. Carl Crawford and Mark Teixeira will also be in the free agent class.

What do you guys think? Pipe dream? Plausible?

2008 Free Agent Outfielder Survivor

Ryno — Sun, 27 May 2007 17:11:43 -0000

With the Sox's black hole in left field, there's been a lot of talk around here about the tantalizing outfield options that will be hitting free agency after the season. So I decided to take a look at who's available and try to break down who fits best with the Sox. First, here's the list of '08 free agent OFs:

Left fielders
Eric Byrnes (32)
Adam Dunn (28) - $13MM club option for '08
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08
Luis Gonzalez (40)
Barry Bonds (43)
Brad Wilkerson (31)

Center fielders
Ichiro Suzuki (34)
Andruw Jones (31)
Torii Hunter (32)
Eric Byrnes (32)
Corey Patterson (28)
Milton Bradley (30)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Kenny Lofton (41)

Right fielders
Jermaine Dye (34)
Bobby Abreu (34) - $16MM club option for '08
Ichiro Suzuki (34)
Milton Bradley (30)
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08
Trot Nixon (34)
Jose Guillen (32) - $9MM club option for '08
Shawn Green (35) - $10MM club option for '08
Eric Hinske (30)

Now that we have the list, let's play some Survivor and start voting these guys off White Sox island. 20 will enter, only one will remain.

20
Let's get rid of Barry Bonds first. Not just because everyone hates him, but because paying $16 million for one year of a 43-year-old outfielder who should really be a DH doesn't make sense for the Sox.

19
Then I think we can reasonably eliminate Luis Gonzalez and Kenny Lofton for being too old. The Sox don't want to become the Midwest Giants.

17
And next we'll vote off Shawn Green and Mike Cameron for being pretty old and not that good anymore.

15
That brings us to guys like Wilkerson, Patterson, Bradley, Nixon, Guillen, and Hinske, who are either declining, injury prone, crazy, and/or career underachievers/just not that good. Although some team will probably hit the jackpot and get a productive year out of one of these guys at a reasonable cost, the Sox's outfield situation doesn't really call for a gamble on a question mark like one of these guys.

9
Then there's Adam Dunn, Geoff Jenkins, and Bobby Abreu, all of whom are intriguing options but are almost guaranteed to have their club options picked up for 2008. It's possible if Abreu continues to struggle this year that the Yankees decide to bail on him and let Melky play, but for the purposes of this analysis, let's assume he re-signs and drop all three of these guys from our consideration.

6
That leaves us with Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Jermaine Dye, Eric Byrnes, and legendary White Sox pie-bringer Aaron Rowand.

To make the first cut, it seems obvious to compare Byrnes and Rowand, who seem like similar players:

Byrnes will be 32 at the beginning of the 2008 season, has a career OPS+ of 100 and RC27 of 5.12, and can adequately play all three outfield positions.

Rowand will be 30 to start the '08 season, has a career OPS+ of 103 and RC27 of 5.16, plays excellent centerfield defense, and is legendary among Sox fans for his grit, hustle, leadership, team spirit, and clubhouse bonhomie.

Basically, they're the same player, and likely to cost the same, but Rowand is younger and his return would be a hit with many Sox fans. So Byrnes can surf off the island.

5
But Rowand is still low man on the totem pole, so now he has to survive a comparison with Torii Hunter. Hunter will be 32 to start '08, has a career OPS+ of 104 and RC27 of 5.18, and plays Gold Glove centerfield defense. Surprisingly, Hunter has not been that much more productive than Rowand. Rowand even has 5 more Win Shares since 2004 (58-53). So, considering that Hunter is likely to cost far more than Rowand for similar production, Rowand wins again, and his legend grows.

4
But now he has to face a fellow 2005 White Sox hero in Jermaine Dye. Jermaine will be 34 next season, has a career OPS+ of 110 and RC27 of 5.82, and appears to be a rapidly declining defensive outfielder headed for DH duty in the near future. So, Dye is obviously the superior offensive player to Rowand, but his declining skills in the outfield, age, and likely cost (a least double what Rowand would cost per year) all weigh against him. In this case, the Sox avoid being saddled with a large contract for an ageing player and choose Rowand once again.

3
Note: I'm not one of these crazy Rowand fans. I'm as surprised as anybody that he's made it this far. So let's end this nonsense and compare Rowand to Andruw Jones:

Jones will also be 30 next season, has a career OPS+ of 117 and RC27 of 5.92, and plays what is now overrated but still good centerfield defense. Jones has 74 Win Shares since '04 compared to Rowand's 58. Also, Rowand's most similar players are guys like Carl Everett, Shea Hillenbrand, and Mike Lamb, whereas Jones's are Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews, and Johnny Bench. In terms of past and likely future production, there's no comparision. But what about the money?

A realistic contract for a player of Rowand's caliber would probably be something like 4 years/$24 million, whereas Jones will be looking for Carlos Lee/Soriano-type money, along the lines of say 7 years/$120 million. Considering Jones's questionable conditioning habits over the years, I don't have much doubt that this contract would be an albatross by 2011, by which time Jones will have been shifted to a corner outfield spot, diminishing the value of his production. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think Rowand is the better value in terms of future roster construction and financial flexibility.

2
Finally, there's Ichiro. 34 in 2008, career OPS+ of 120 and RC27 of 6.35, and excellent defense in both right and centerfield. 84 win shares since 2004. The only true leadoff hitter on this list and, to me, unquestionably the best all around player. So let's talk money. Like Jones, Ichiro will also demand Lee/Soriano-type dollars. One thing that might be more flexible are the years of the deal, because of his age. Even still, you're probably looking at a 6 year contract worth about $100 million for a player who will be 40 years old when it ends. Unlike Jones, though, Ichiro's conditioning is impeccable, as is his batting eye, and, even as age begins to slow him down, he should be able to adjust his hitting approach somewhat to add a little power, which we've all seen him flash.

1
So here the incredible journey of Aaron Rowand ends. Ichiro earns the title of Sole Survivor and joins the crew of the Pale Hose 8.

Down on the Farm

Ryno — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 16:58:25 -0000

Well, it's Friday morning and I'm hungover at work. What better way to waste time than to write a recap of last night's Sox minor league action.

Charlotte 5, Syracuse 4 (Game 1); Charlotte 2, Syracuse 7 (Game 2)
Charlie Haeger pitched 6 innings in game 1 of a doubleheader, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits, 3 of which were homers, walking 1, and striking out four. Boone Logan pitched two scoreless innings of relief with 1 hit, 1walk, and 1 strikeout, and Paulino Reynoso vultured a win when the Knights scored in the bottom of the ninth. At the plate, Luis Terrero was the hitting star, going 2-4 with a 3-run homer and raising his average to .304. Josh Fields went 1-4 with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts, while Ryan Sweeney was 0-3 with a walk and a K.

In game 2, Lance Broadway was the hard luck loser after giving up a 2-run homer and scattering 8 other hits in a 5K, 0BB, 6 inning effort. Corwin Malone was rocked for 5 runs in the 7th to solidify the loss for the Knights. Josh Fields was hitless in one official at-bat, but drew two walks and scored a run. Ryan Sweeney went 1-3 with an RBI double and a run scored and sits at .286 on the year.

Birmingham 5, Mobile 2
Jack Egbert got the victory, giving up 2 runs on just 4 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 5 in six innings of work. Catcher Donny Lucy continued his hot hitting, going 2-4 with 2 doubles and a run scored and raising his average to .444. Tom Collaro added a hit, a walk, and run with his 1-3 effort, but still managed to lower his average to .355. Chris Getz had a rough night, going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts, and Robert Valido continued to struggle, going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts and falling to .069/.100/.103 on the young season.

Winston-Salem 3, Myrtle Beach 5 (Game 1), Winston-Salem 1, Myrtle Beach 10 (Game 2)
The Warthogs also played a twin bill on Thursday, but couldn't get much going in either game. In the first game, Kyle McCulloch surrendered 4 runs on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 3 in 5 innings. 32-year-old starter Joe Gannon got rocked in game 2, allowing 7 runs (6 earned) on 6 hits and 4 walks. Perhaps it's time for someone to pull Joe aside and gently encourage him to hang up the spikes. John Lujan worked one scoreless inning of relief, striking out 1. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Cunningham continued his assault on Carolina League pitching, going 4-7 on the day, bringing his average to .455, while Micah Schnurstein cooled off with an 0-6, 4 K line. Cole Armstrong and Tyler Reves (neither of whom I know anything about) both went 2-3 in game 1 and are batting .353 and .444, respectively. Both are 23 and are listed as catchers, though Reves played first base.

Kannapolis 3, Rome 2
21-year-old Dominican right-hander Faustino De Los Santos gave up a run on one hit and 4 walks while striking out 4 in 4.2 innings, but didn't qualify for the win, which went to Jose Zazueta. Kanekoa Texeira and Steve Spurgeon each pitched a scoreless inning of relief. Chris Carter went 2-4 and Anderson Gomes went 1-3 with a triple and a walk in the win.

White Sox sign veteran Perez

Ryno — Mon, 12 Feb 2007 21:35:18 -0000

If you're like me, you screamed "Oh no, not Timo!" in your head when you saw that headline. Luckily, it's not everyone's favorite clutch-hitting trilingual 5th outfielder.

From ChicagoSports.com:

In an effort to fortify their offense against left-handed pitching, the White Sox signed first baseman/designated hitter Eduardo Perez to a minor league contract Monday.

Perez, 37, has played over parts of 13 major league seasons, slugging 79 home runs. He batted .253 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 80 games with Cleveland and Seattle last season. He hit all nine of his homers against left-handers last season.

Michael Young

Ryno — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 22:16:13 -0000

It seems like the Tribune's Mark Gonzales brings up the possibility of trading for Michael Young every time he writes about ways the Sox can improve in 2007. I'm not sure if this is a pet idea of his or if he has some inside info, but with the way Hawk kept gushing about Young toward the end of the year, it makes you wonder if there were some organizational rumblings about making a play for him.

Presumably, we would give up Garcia/Vazquez and Uribe for Young and a pitching prospect (Danks? Diamond? Volquez? wishful thinking?). Although Young seems more ideally suited to the #2 hole to me, he could certainly fill the void in the leadoff spot and would be an offensive improvement over Uribe. Of course, he'd be a defensive downgrade, but based on this year's performance, not a liability in the field.

Trading a starting pitcher to acquire Young would probably leave the hole in left field to be filled by a free agent stopgap like Dave Roberts until Sweeney or Fields come around (hopefully!).

So, do you like this idea or would you prefer the Sox use their biggest trading chip to address other areas of weakness like left field and the bullpen?