I wasn't sure if people saw this classic Byrnes item in today's Washington Post...

Byrnes Provides A Boost

By Jorge Arangure Jr.
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 31, 2005; E06

BALTIMORE, July 30 -- He was not as energetic as advertised as he sat on a couch in the Baltimore Orioles clubhouse Saturday, yet the T-shirt and jeans and the disheveled hair that fluffed in every direction made it easy to spot Eric Byrnes.

Only 3 1/2 hours after he had arrived on a red-eye flight from Colorado, Byrnes joined his third team this season. The outfielder was acquired on Friday night from the Rockies for outfielder Larry Bigbie and arrived at 6 a.m. in Baltimore.

"I think it's a great opportunity," Byrnes said. "It's a good team that's got some of the, obviously, best players in baseball. It's great to have an opportunity to play for something this time of year. [Energy] is the one thing I can guarantee I can bring. I bust my [rear end] every day. That's the only way I've ever played the game, so I'll play it whether I'm struggling or I'm playing well."

Byrnes started in left field and had an RBI double in the second inning, diving headfirst into second base. It's that type of attitude the Orioles hope endears him to teammates.

"I'm not going to" change my style of play, Byrnes said. "People have their opinions of me. Hopefully more positive than negative. It's what I'm going to do and how I'm going to play."

He was picked off second base later in the inning, though.

"That was stupid," Byrnes said. "There's no excuse for that."

One reason for the impression that Barry Zito is so expendable is his somewhat inflated ERA of 4.41. But it turns out this is almost entirely due to his first two performances of the season, particularly the second game of the season when he gave up 8 earned runs in about 3 innings.

If you take out his first two starts, his ERA is 3.75, which would be 16th in the league, about the same as Johan Santana at 3.78. Even if you take out just the one really horrendous start, his ERA would be 3.89, a half run lower than 4.41.

Zito's ERA in May and June is under 3.50.

I understand that a lot of players stats would improve if you took out one bad performance, but for pitchers in the first part of the season it's clear one bad outing makes a much bigger impact than, for example, a batter who strikes out 5 times in a game.

I think the bottom line is that if Zito continues to pitch the way he has in May and June, that puts him in the top 10-15 in the league in earned runs per 9 innings, which, along with having the most innings on the staff, should be taken into account when considering what to do with him.

I thought it would be fun to see where the A's players rank individually in batting compared to the rest of the American League. The good news is the A's have the player ranked number 4 in the American League in slugging percentage. The bad news is it's Dan Haren at 1.000. The next best A's player in slugging percentage is ranked number 81 at .429. Again, the bad news is it's Bobby Crosby, who has only played two games.

And the highest ranked A's player in slugging percentage who has batted more than 10 times? Bobby Kielty is ranked number 93 at .416.

Maybe someone can find something I missed but I'm not sure there's one bright spot statistically in the A's lineup, except perhaps that Bobby Kielty has recovered this year in a way that few expected.

While we don't expect the new owner to be like some of the more notorious owners in baseball, it's useful to compare Billy Beane's basic autonomy to the interference experienced by other general managers. It's also the reason one would anticipate that freedom from interference in baseball decisions will be Billy's key demand in his upcoming discussions with the new owner.

This article from today's Washington Post gives some perspective on how outrageous things can be with a certain type of owner:

Washington Post
January 31, 2005

In November 1998, the Baltimore Orioles' top executives gathered around new general manager Frank Wren to evaluate potential free agent targets when, according to people present at the time, they were interrupted by owner Peter Angelos, who asked: "What do you guys think about Albert Belle?"

Belle, the powerful but surly free agent slugger, had not been among the targets Wren's brain trust had discussed. Wren told Angelos that Belle had pluses (his production) and minuses (his personality), but Angelos waved him off. "What if I told you we already got him?" Angelos asked, and it became clear what had occurred. Wren ultimately lasted only a year on the job.

After Randy Johnson's first day in New York, the headline this morning in the New York Post read: BIG JERK

It seems the first thing Randy did on his way to taking his physical was to push a NY cameraman out of the way. Of course, about 3 hours later there was the expected "apology."

Do people think Randy Johnson will last three years in New York?

Would be interested if folks know how the this money from the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels is divided up and how much, for example, would the A's be expected to receive. I assume the payroll threshold only runs at the current level until the next collective bargaining agreement. If it stays at this level for several years, inflation alone would probably push more teams to pay at least some luxury tax. The players union and the Yankees (and perhaps other teams in the future) would like the threshold to be lower.

The Boston Red Sox got an extra bill after winning the World Series...
RONALD BLUM
Associated Press
NEW YORK - The Boston Red Sox got an extra bill after winning the World Series.
Boston and Anaheim must pay baseball's luxury tax along with the New York Yankees, according to final figures compiled by the commissioner's office.

The Yankees are required to pay $25,026,352, according to a Dec. 21 memorandum that was sent to all major league teams. Boston owes $3,155,234 for exceeding the payroll threshold of $120.5 million and Anaheim got a bill for $927,059.

Checks for the competitive-balance tax, as it is formally known, are due at the commissioner's office by Jan. 31.

"The CBT is now an important part of baseball's economic landscape," Red Sox owner John Henry said in an e-mail Monday. "From my perspective, even though it costs us, the stronger the CBT is in the future, the stronger the sport is going to be. It is a much more productive form of taxation than that of strictly revenue taxation because the economic incentives for teams are not damaged."

In 2003, the first year of the new luxury tax, the Yankees were the only team to pay, owing $11,798,357, according to the team's latest revised bill. Because they exceeded the threshold a second time, the Yankees were taxed at a rate of 30 percent for the amount they were over. Boston and Anaheim were taxed at a 22.5 percent rate.

If the Yankees go over the 2005 threshold of $128 million, which appears certain, they would be taxed at a 40 percent rate.

New York also estimates it will give up about $60 million as part of baseball's revenue-sharing plan this season, meaning the Yankees will send the commissioner's office about $85 million of their estimated $315 million revenue in 2004. Boston's revenue-sharing payment is estimated at approximately $42 million on revenue of at least $220 million.

The Yankees easily finished ahead of other teams in the regular payrolls figures for the sixth straight season, winding up at a record $187.9 million, $28 million above the previous mark they set in 2003.

Boston, which overcame a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees in the AL championship series and won the World Series for the first time since 1918, was second at $130.4 million.

Anaheim, defeated by the Red Sox in the first round of the playoffs, was third at $115.6 million, followed by the New York Mets ($103.2 million), Los Angeles ($101.7 million), the Chicago Cubs ($100.7 million) and Philadelphia ($97.4 million).

St. Louis, swept by Boston in the World Series, was eighth at $92.8 million.

At the other end, Tampa Bay finished with the lowest payroll for the third straight season. At $24.4 million, the Devil Rays had the lowest figure for any team since 2000.

Milwaukee was 29th at $29.6 million, down from $43.3 million, and Pittsburgh was 28th at $32.5 million, down from $53.3 million.

Texas fell from fifth at $103.3 million to 13th at $79.2 million, Atlanta went from sixth at $98 million to 12th at $79.4 million, Seattle dropped from seventh at $97.7 million to 11th at $81.8 million and Arizona declined from 11th at $83.8 million to 15th at $68.4 million.

Anaheim rose from 12th at $80 million to third, the Cubs increased from 10th at $84 million to sixth and Philadelphia went up from 15th at $71.5 million to seventh.

Payrolls include salaries, prorated shares of signing bonuses, earned bonuses, buyouts of 2004 options and cash transactions.

For the luxury tax, which is based on 40-man rosters, the average annual values of contracts and includes benefits, the Yankees finished with a payroll of $203.9 million, while Boston was at $134.5 million and Anaheim at $124.6 million.

Many midlevel teams appear to be spending money on free agents this offseason, possibly because of the shift in economics created by increased revenue sharing. That could push the average salary higher next season.

According to the players' association, the average dropped 2.5 percent this year to $2,313,535 from $2,372,189, the first decrease since 1995 and only the third since record-keeping began in 1967.

It would have been great to sign Hudson for 4 years and keep him. I agree with everyone who said that. But if that was not possible, then it's a choice between one year of Hudson or three players that all seem to be very good.

Some folks have knocked Thomas but in his first year in the big leagues, his OPS at .813 was better than every player on the A's except for Durazo, Chavez, (not far behind) Kotsay (.829), and almost a tie with Byrnes at .814. He would hit about 16 home runs a year if he played as much as Byrnes did last year, and perhaps more with experience. His average should creep up as well.

It sounds like he's a great defensive player. I found this on ESPN.com (August 2004): "But his contributions go beyond hitting. Thomas has already made enough spectacular catches to fill out his own highlight film. He's fit with in with perennial Gold Glover Andruw Jones and right fielder J.D. Drew, giving the Braves one of the best defensive outfields in the majors."

Several of the posts have recognized that Meyer's record indicates he will be a very good pitcher. He was a first round draft pick by the Braves, so his stats are not a fluke.

And Juan Cruz's stats for last year show that in 50 games his ERA was a half run or better than every pitcher on the A's staff except for Hammond, who mostly pitched in mop-up rolls.

Again, I agree with everyone who says it would have been great to sign Hudson for 4 years. But it doesn't seem that was going to happen, so our disappointment should not negate the fact that Thomas, Meyer, and Cruz are three very good players that the A's picked up, players the A's will likely have for a number of years.

It now looks like the A's have 4 All Star-caliber players in their starting lineup -- Kendall, Kotsay, Chavez, and Durazo, and 4 All Star-caliber pitchers in Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Harden. That's not counting up and coming players that could move to that level. Except for a stronger bullpen, it seems that keeping the team together would be more important to success at this point than making more deals.

The New York Times has an article today that lends statistical credence to Billy Beane's statement that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Here's the key part of the article:

Although comparing the World Series to coin flipping might seem a bit, well, flippant, history demonstrates that it might not be far off. Before 1969, when there was only one annual best-of-seven-game postseason series, the team with the better regular-season record won 34 of 65 series, just a tick more than 50 percent.

From 1969 through 1993, when baseball played one additional preliminary series, a league championship series (first best of five games, later best of seven), the team with the best regular-season record ended up wearing rings 7 of 25 times, or 28 percent. That is very close to the 25 percent of the time a flipped coin will come up heads twice in a row. Since 1995, when the postseason expanded to eight teams and three rounds, the best team in the regular-season has won one of nine World Series, just what a coin's theoretical probability (1 in 8, or 12.5 percent) would prescribe.

Such random-looking results are what caused Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, loser of four straight opening-round series from 2000 to 2003, to liken the baseball playoffs to a crapshoot. John Henry, the principal owner of the Red Sox, whose probability models made him a billionaire commodities trader, put it this way: "Every team might not start with a 12½ percent chance, but no one's lower than 10 or higher than about 15."

The entire article, if registered, can be found at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/24/sports/baseball/24score.html?pagewanted=all

While much of AN discussion the past few weeks has focused on the need to improve the offense, particularly by trading Mulder, Zito, Blanton, etc. for a big bat, some stats may indicate that what the A's need to do is improve their pitching, not their hitting.

If everyone is back from last year and Swisher produces about the same as Dye, which is certainly possible, then the A's should score about the same number of runs in 2005 as in 2004. In fact, compared to other years, it appears A's run production was not the problem in 2004. The problem was the runs allowed. Let's look at the last four years.

In 2004, the A's scored 793 runs, which was 25 runs better than in 2003, and only 7 worse than in 2002. Yet the A's won 96 games in 2003 and 103 games in 2002 but only won 91 games in 2004.

The reason? Look at opponents runs scored: In 2004, the A's gave up nearly 100 runs more than the team did in 2003 (and 2001), and 88 more runs than in 2002. This doesn't factor in fielding but it appeared that the A's fielding overall was perhaps better in 2004 than in previous years.

Of course, it would be great to score 884 runs as the team did in 2001, but to increase run production by making trades that would likely translate into allowing more opponent runs scored in 2005 than even in 2004 would probably not help the team.

Folks can comment on what they think these stats mean. One reasonable conclusion is that Billy Beane might want to take the more controversial course of NOT making a big trade for a power hitter and concentrate almost exclusively on bolstering the pitching staff. I know that may not be the popular view but it appears that would be a reasonable course.

    A's Runs     Opponents Runs   
2004     793        742           
2003    768        643           
2002    800        654           
2001    884        645           

A's Record
2004    91-71
2003    96-66
2002   103-59
2001   102-60