SB Nation User Blog: SP

ARod- Arbitration?

SP — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 17:50:55 -0000

The Yanks are offering Arod arbitration, mostly so they can get the two draft picks when he signs with another team. Pete Abraham says it's 99-1 against that Boras would accept arbitration, but if teams are holding firm against the $300 million / 10 year demands, there's a chance it could happen. What would happen if Arod went to arbitration?

As I understand it, if a team offers arbitration (deadline end of November) and a player accepts (deadline a week later), they continute to negotiate until mid January. They must reach a deal at least for the next year, although they could come to a longer term agreement. If they fail to come to terms, a 3 judge panel, in mid-February, considers offers from each side for a 1 year contract. (Final offers are submitted mid-Jan, but negotiations can continute until the hearing.) The interesting part is that it is "Final Offer" arbitration, in which the judges pick one side's number, no compromise or middle ground. It's a game of chicken- offer too little and the player gets their inflated number; ask for too much, and the team wins with a lowball offer.
The judges may consider these criteria:

The contribution of the player during the previous season
The length and consistency of the player's career
The record of the player's previous compensation
The performance of the player's club during the previous season
Any physical or mental defects the player may have
Comparable baseball salaries

Note that the opted-out years are NOT a consideration (#3 says past compensation, which I think would exclude a voided future contract.) Resources of the team are also excluded from consideration. For a player with 500+ HRs, coming off an MVP season, who just made $27M, without whom a team would not have made the playoffs, what numbers does each side go with? Would Boras pull the trigger here, if he thinks he can get a better deal after another MVP-caliber year? If he believes his mumbo-jumbo about Arod being worth $35 million, let's see him try to convince the judges.

Playoff rotation

SP — Wed, 29 Aug 2007 04:48:54 -0000

Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs- you kidding me? Playoffs?
But seriously, the Boston talk radio people actually made a good point (it happens sometimes) about the ALDS this year- one of the two series has enough off days that you can pitch all 5 games with just a 3 man rotation and still have everyone on regular rest. The ALCS, you can go with 3 men if you're willing to pitch games 1 and 4 with just 3 days rest (then game 7 on regular rest.) In all series there are never 3 games in a row- the bullpen should be well rested and Joba should be available for most games.

The Sox radio guys said Boston would probably stick with a 4 man rotation in all series because they have the depth- but what should NY do? I think in the ALDS there's no question you go with 3 men- Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Wang, Pettitte, and you have Andy pitching the two most important games. That's moot if NY ends up in the series scheduled with one less off day, since then someone has to go on short rest.
The ALCS is a tougher call- you'd like to get your #1 in 3 times, but your number 3 is exposed twice anyway, so it's not as much of a benefit to go with only 3 starters. Probably go with 4 men and have your 1&5 starter available from the bullpen for game 7.

Poll

What rotation should the Yankees use in the ALDS?

3 man- Andy and Wang can carry them through the series

3 votes

4 man- You can't ice a starter for a whole series

9 votes

5 man- Bring back Kei!

1 votes

Playoffs? Lets qualify first!

13 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

All star game open thread

SP — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 01:06:30 -0000

A place for everyone to commiserate over Joe Buck's Red Sox love fest, McCarver's brilliant insights, the idiocy of San Fran fans having orgasms over Barry Bonds' every movement, and the spectacle of the AAAA players going for their 10th straight loss to the major leaguers.

Highlights of the top of the first- a poor start for the Yanks, the captain GIDP and ARod robbed of a hit. Ortiz managed to look bad when he should have been thrown out by 30 feet, only to reach when Fielder dropped a 20 mph heater from Utley.

A cause of / solution to the steroid problem?

SP — Wed, 23 May 2007 18:24:13 -0000

Incentives matter. Reward people for certain actions, and people will do whatever they can to get the reward. Baseball is no exception- when certain rules change, people modify their behavior to obtain optimal results under the new rule.
What follows is a thought experiment on one (of many) possible (and perhaps far-fetched) cause of the incentives to take steroids, and the apparent solution- stadium design.

With relation to steroids, the big reward that drove many players to bulk up was the fame and fortune that came with being a franchise slugger. Most players and fans agree that steroids do not help the hand-eye coordination needed to hit a ball, but extra muscle means you can hit the ball further. What is lost in return for the extra muscle obtained through steroid use? Usually speed and health, particularly of joints and bones.
Look at everyone's favorite steroid poster boy, Bonds. Everyone agrees he was a great ballplayer, probably a hall of famer, before he suddenly became muscle-bound slugger. (Compare his build with the picture in this article.) He was also fairly speedy- SB in the 30s, 5-7 triples per year. His speed numbers dropped off to < 15 steals as his power numbers went up, as his SLG went from 500 or 600 up to 700 or 800. (Surprisingly, his zone rating as an outfielder didn't change that much.)
So presumably people who take steroids will trade speed for power. The most obvious reward for power is the home run, while the reward for speed is the stolen base and some more extra base hits. Has anything happened in the last 10-20 years that would make home runs easier to obtain while diminishing the need for speed?
Part of the idea for this diary came from someone mentioning the crazy dimensions of the polo grounds yesterday. If you browse through the stadium dimensions here, you can see what most people are aware of- recent stadium designs have been more "intimate," or bandboxes as some call them. The result is more homers hit out of the park, and less need to leg out extra base hits. Compare that to places like the polo grounds (very short lines, but 450 to the alleys) or the old Yankee stadium dimensions (short porch, but 450 to left center.)
The numbers bear this out- there are about 15-20 inside the park homers each season in the modern era, while Ty Cobb had 49 in his career and 9 in one season. The records for triples are also way back in the early 1900s. In this era, anything not hit to an outfielder is usually a double unless it takes a weird bounce or the batter is very fast- triples are more rare, in ITPHRs are highlight reel material.
So there is no need to be fast as long as you can hit the ball 400 feet- whereas being a slug or standing and admiring your hits (a la Manny) would earn you a 400 foot single (not to mention a fastball in your ear) in the old ballparks. Steroid use plays right into this- your knees might give out, but you can crawl around the bases if you can hit the ball far enough, so who needs to run? Larger outfields would also mean that you can't stick a juiced up slugger with bad knees in the outfield because it will cost you on defense (although the Bonds' ZR numbers don't necessarily support this.) Consequently, players are willing to sacrifice their speed if they can have more muscle. Obviously, this doesn't address pitchers who take steroids, but most of the focus these days is on sluggers.
The obvious solution is to return to larger stadium dimensions. There is no way this will ever happen, since fans like the smaller stadiums and larger HR numbers. Perhaps there is some other rule change that could have a similar effect, though; if baseball can return to a greater emphasis on speed and less on power, it might discourage the next generation of players from focusing on the almighty HR. Or they might just search for the miracle drug that will let them hit the ball 500 feet instead of 400.

Roster- Hallelujah, Joe (Updated with 25 man roster)

SP — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 13:57:05 -0000

It seems that the era of "Joe's guys" may be coming to an end and we'll see players on the field based on their talent. According to the Times today, some younger players with better spring performances are expected to make the roster over older, "trusted" players.
Nieves/Pratt/chair cushion is a tossup for backup catcher, since all of them hit under .200 this spring, and will have to be addressed with a trade during the season. However, at first base it looks like Josh Phelps will get on the roster over Andy Phillips:

Phelps is a year younger than Phillips, who turns 30 next week, and he has 210 more games of major league experience, with a better career average (.268 to .228) and more power. Playing last season at Class AAA Toledo in the Detroit farm system, Phelps batted .308 with 24 homers and 90 runs batted in....
Phelps is batting .400 with 3 homers and 10 R.B.I. He has three seasons in the majors with at least 15 homers.

In the bullpen, Sean Henn will likely be a middle lefty over Ron Villone:

Villone signed a non-guaranteed contract that calls for him to earn $2.5 million if he makes the opening-day roster. Because he costs so much more than the rookie Henn, Villone had to pitch better than Henn to make the roster.
Instead, he has pitched worse, with a 14.40 earned run average. In nine games, opponents have batted .520. Henn has a 3.00 E.R.A. and a .182 opponents' average.

I'm not sure about Henn, but this was still a no brainer- the last couple days, Villone had the dreaded "0.0 IP, pitched to x batters in the nth" in the box score. It's nice to see that there is some point where you can be so bad that you can lose your place as one of Joe's Guys. It's a little sad because one reason Villone may be so terrible now is due to Joe burning him out last year.
Most importantly, it looks like CashMan is stepping in and making Joe a little more sane on these sorts of decisions:

The additions of Henn, Nieves and Phelps represent a subtle organizational shift. Villone, Pratt and Phillips all fit the classic Torre profile because of their experience. But General Manager Brian Cashman wants to make the team younger and cheaper, and Torre is on board with that.

We'll see whether this translates to things like bullpen usage during the season and whether Joe can finally start using more than 3 relievers in a given week.

Update, 12:15pm: Selections confirmed at yankees.com. Karstens will start on the DL, Bruney and Rasner also made the team. Your 2007 New York Yankees:

SP: Pavano Pettitte Mussina Igawa Rasner (Replaced by Wang in 4 weeks)

RP: Myers Henn Bruney Vizcaino Proctor Farnsworth Rivera

OF: Matsui Abreu Damon Cabrera

IF: 1B: Mientkiewicz, Phelps, Giambi (DH) 2B: Cano SS: Jeter 3B: Rodriguez IF: Cairo C: Posada, Nieves

Sox series tickets

SP — Sat, 03 Jun 2006 02:31:18 -0000

Anyone who's wanted to go to a Sox-Yankees game but has been afraid of the cost, you should go this week. There are a huge number of tickets out there, things are selling under face value.

Yes, I am an interested party in this, since I have tickets for Wednesday but now can't make it due to a change of plans. I've tried selling on a couple sites but there's an enormous glut- I'll probably end up eating my pair, but the scalpers out there are going to eat a lot more. A good chance for the real fans out there to get into a decent game for cheap.

Salaries of postseason rosters

SP — Wed, 05 Oct 2005 04:30:17 -0000

There's something I'd like to know which anyone with some time could figure out- what are the salaries of the teams in the postseason, including only those players on the 25-man roster? Everyone talks about the Yanks spending >$200 million, but a lot of that has been a bust. I suspect the Yankees are still the highest in the postseason, but they're probably down around Boston's level.

First off, three big pitching contracts are gone, with Brown done for good ($16 million blown), Pavano down ($9 million) and Wright ($5.6 million) left off the roster, replaced by Chacon ($2.3 million), Wang (a few hundred k), and Small (~$300k). So right there that's about $30 million less for their postseason roster. I believe they're also only paying minimum for Leiter and Embree since they were released by their former teams, who have to cover the contracts.
If someone wants to bother going through the 200 players on the postseason rosters (or a subset of them), here's a player salary database. I think players are listed by the teams they started the season with, so I can't find Smalls exact salary, I suspect it's the minimum.