In the post-game thread last, I was harping on our offensive system for roughly the millionth time this season. While our young players make plenty of mistakes, I was arguing that our lack of offensive movement and cohesion was hurting our team more than any specific player (i.e. Evans). And not just ball movement, but off the ball movement. With Rick Adelman we were treated to screens, cuts and player movement that created easy baskets and open passing lanes. Right now we are making the game extraordinarily difficult for our young stars. And while Evans and Cousins have plenty of opportunity to grow their games, I think they get unfairly criticized when for not making passes that simply do not exist.

However, there's only so many times you can make that claim. So I wanted to find some video. Luckily the Magic-Kings game from Sunday was posted on YouTube. I wound up watching the last 5:30 and took screen grabs of both team's offensive sets to see how they were conducted.

The results are pretty telling. This is every offensive set run for both teams. Not selected examples to emphasize a point. Not YouTube highlights where something went well for one play, but 6 unedited minutes of real game action. These are only the actual half court sets, not fast breaks. This is about seeing plays and movement.

This is an epicly long post. However, it's worth making your way through all of the plays. There is a very stark contrast in the way moderately competent offense runs and our offense runs. The consequences of this will become more apparent with each set. It takes multiple, consecutive plays to really see what a complete and utter failure of coaching this team has been operating under and how it is stunting our players' growth and our perceptions of them. I would suggest as you have time to come back and actually look closely at these pictures. Look at body language. See how players are changing position beyond my descriptions. It's fascinating.

Play 1 (Magic)

Offense initiates as Nelson dribbles up top. Hedo comes down to set a screen for Howard. Anderson and Richardson start in the corners.

Howard uses the screen and comes up top to screen for Nelson. Hedo sets up in the low post. Anderson and Richardson stay stationary.

As Nelson & Howard do the pick and roll, Hedo rotates from the key to the top of the three point line. This forces Salmons to shift up and clears a passing lane to Richardson.

Evans never moves on defense. Richardson and Hedo are both wide open for three. There is no clutter as Hedo moved to the right spot. Richardson sinks the open three pointer.

Play 2 (Kings)

Isaiah initiates offense as Green runs to one corner and Salmons is in the other Hickson starts in the high post.

Thomas drives. Green still headed to corner. Hickson takes 3 steps to top of key. Salmons and Evans stand still. At least Salmons looks ready to shoot. I have no idea how Evans positioning is conducive to NBA basketball.

After Isaiah kicks out, Salmons, Greene and Evans are all all in the same positions. Hickson is isolated 19 feet from the hoop - I have no idea what he is he can possibly do with the ball there.

Hickson drives into the defense as Isaiah, Greene and Evans are all standing in their same spots. Salmons has at least rotated up but Hickson fell the wrong direction.

Play 3 (Magic)

Kings recovered from steal. Offense starts here. Not a long play, but watch the movement.

As Hedo drives Howard moves to the post and Anderson clears to the corner. Richardson takes the Salmons "old man" role of standing in one spot.

As Anderson gets the ball, Richardson stats sliding towards the top of the three point line to be open if his man contests in time. That's smart spacing.

After an offensive rebound, the Magic reset. Richardson had made it to the top of the three point line and now shifts to the opposite side for spacing. Howard is hopelessly outmatched by Throton's D, but call for the ball anyway.

As the pass gets thrown inside, Greene doubles and Anderson makes a hard cut. He could have had a layup, but Salmons slid down. Hedo drifted out to the trigger position at the three point line and is now wide open.

As the defense rotates and Hickson sags back towards the key - Hedo actually rotates down towards the baseline to give Howard a perfect passing lane. Hedo missed. And Howard got the board and was fouled.

Play 4 (Kings)

Cousins comes in for Hickson. Kings start their possession with Salmons, Greene, Isaiah and Evans in the exact same positions as last play. Salmons looks comfortable or disinterested or both.

Evans passes to Isaiah and Cousins sets up shop in the high post. Greene runs the baseline.

Salmons has no idea Greene is coming, so Greene has to point and yell. Evans stands in one spot.

3 seconds later, we have three players in the same vicinity. Evans is walking towards the corner three position, but not screening or moving with any purpose. Greene is now standing in no man's land. Salmons is jogging up top.

Salmons and Evans are literally trying to occupy the same space on the floor. Greene is standing in the same spot. After feeding the post, Isaiah starts making the most purposeful cut we have seen yet. I was actually excited to see where this was going - back cut, screen for Greene, etc.

Nope. Isaiah goes to where Green was standing as Green take two steps up into no man's land. Evans in the same spot. Salmons is literally walking towards the top of the three point line. This is not an offense. There is no passing lane or option for Cousins at this point other than back down three time Defensive POY Dwight Howard.

As Nelson cheats over to go for the steal, Cousins throws a pass to Isaiah (who to his credit took a step baseline), but Cousins missed timed the pass. Ball winds up going out on Magic. Kings ball with 4 seconds left, we actually had an inbounds play that got Greene an open shot, but this is about half court offense.

Play 5 (Magic)

Magic start their offense 4 on 5 for some reason. Howard screens for Hedo.

Howard rolls to the hoop. Anderson stands by the baseline. Richardson finally emerges and shows why he's their version of Salmons. Remember this when Howard demands another trade.

Howard posts. Everyone else is standing in one spot. Not a banner play so far.

Terrible job by Orlando here. They took a play from our offense and got a similar result. Nelson and Richardson are standing very close together. Howard was left on an Evans/Cousins-style island, got blocked in traffic and Kings got the ball.

Play 6 (Kings)

Evans initiates the offense. Cousins comes over to set a screen. You won't be able to guess where everyone is going. Magic defenders are happy to avoid all the sweating and moving they normally experience playing defense.

Screen and roll is well defended. Four seconds after last screen grab and no one else has pretended to move. They just finished going to their positions and are standing. Salmons is gunning for MVP of Standing in One Place. Evans dribbles backwards towards top of three point line.

Evans passes to Salmons on the wing, and he starts to dribble in. Cousins has taken two steps towards the baseline. Evans stands in one place. Isaiah has at least started drifting up towards trigger position.

Salmons gets to bucket. Isaiah has at least moved. Cousins, Evans and Greene all in the same position.

Play 7 (Magic)

Offense initiates with Howard going to post and other three players overloaded on the opposite side.

Richardson is seriously walking to the Salmons spot. Maybe that's why Petrie got Salmons, every team needs a terrible, older player to stand motionless in every set. Anderson and Hedo motion to each other and start rolling.

As Howard goes out to screen, Hedo roles tight to the high post. Anderson rolls wider and starts heading to the opposite corner. Richardson stands and challenges Salmons for that MVP award. Notice how all of this movement is happening before Nelson is supposed to drive into 3 defenders. Or I assume that's the play from watching our offense.

As the screen and roll happens, Hedo continues to roll to the top of the three point line, almost doing a full circle to where he was before. This makes it harder for the help defender to track him than standing in one place. Anderson gets to corner. Richardson stands in one place and is now nicknamed The Statue.

Nelson drives. As he gets stopped at hoop, Richardson springs to life and starts rotating up. Anderson also starts rotating up to give Nelson a potential passing lane as there were 3 Kings between the two of them when he was in the corner.

Nelson passed it to the moving Richardson, turns and quickly rotates the ball to Hedo. Now see the blur of Anderson. As Richardson turned to swing the ball, Anderson is already moving towards the top of the three point line to set a screen for Hedo. Nelson rotates to the corner.

Anderson sets the screen and starts rolling towards the hoop. Howard comes up to the high post. Nelson and Richardson stand.

Hedo buried the lucky bank-shot 3, but notice how Anderson has kept rolling to the hoop and is at least in rebounding position. The greater point is not that Hedo got lucky. It's the constant movement and positioning. It doesn't always generate a great shot in 24 seconds, but when run consistently, it eventually creates some easy buckets to go with the hard ones. We only generate the hard ones.

Play 8 (Kings)

Kings initiate offense from what we can affectionately call the Groundhog Day position. Salmons is trying to out-statue The Statue. We ran more complex sets on my 8th grade basketball team.

Isaiah drives. Cousins and Salmons are standing. Evans is at least rotating up top. Greene to his credit gives us our best and only true cut in all of these plays. Isaiah and him misconnect, but the cut was golden.

Thronton is back in the game and gets the ball to initiate the offense. Evans is standing. We would appear to have our first off the ball screen with Greene screening Salmons man after the inbounds.

Nope. Apparently pretending to screen was enough for one day and went their separate ways. Wish I was making this up.

Magic probably shocked to see this set. Evans stands. Salmons stands. Green stands. Thornton and Cousins do high pick and roll. Howard feigns surprise to spare our feelings. Note Salmons hands by his side. Embarrassing.

Knowing Evans can't shoot, Hedo cheats down to cover Cousins, while Howard and Nelson trap Thornton. It's almost like Van Gundy was able to somehow prepare his team for our surprise play. In response - Salmons, Evans and Greene stand in one place.

Thornton passes to open Evans as Hedo closes out. Cousins fights for position. Thornton drifts backwards (he is not cutting to top of three point line as he probably should). Salmons and Greene respond to swing pass by standing in one spot. Evans misses.

[Magic ran fast break. Howard got fouled. No offensive set occurred.]

Play 9 (Kings)

Kings bring Hickson back in for Greene. Initiate play in standard spots, but with Hickson in high post.

Hickson receives the ball in the high post. Salmons swings around to receive the handoff. Thornton looks like he might screen off the ball for Evans (I thought this is what was happening), but runs to the corner instead. Cousins and Evans stand in one place. Starting to think Kings have rule that only 2 people can move at the same time.

Attempted handoff doesn't work. Hickson now trapped without his dribble 19 feet from hoop. Three players are all in the same area with no passing options for Hickson. Thronton is at least moving to the corner. Cousins and Evans watch Hickson flail around. This is like watching the beginning of Hoosiers or Saw 6.

Hickson gets the ball to Salmons and takes 2 steps towards the high post. We are down to 10 seconds on the shot clock. Cousins run up quickly to screen for Salmons. Thornton is standing in corner; however, given the spacing and defense he's in the right spot. Evans is still standing in the same spot. His defender is facing away from him. This is why God invented backdoor cuts. Even if he doesn't get a layup, notice the open corner on the opposite side. If Evans clears that direction and Salmons uses the screen, Hedo will follow Evans and there will be a perfect passing lane to Thornton if Nelson helps. Right now, Hedo is in position to help on the drive and the passing lane to Thornton is congested. Our best case scenario on Salmons' drive is a mildly contested Evans 3 or a dump off to Evans when Hedo stops the penetration.

Salmons picks up his dribble. Thornton and Evans are still standing in the same spots. Hickson takes 2 steps out to no man's land. Cousins is at least moving towards the basket. Similar to last play, Howard has helped trap the ball handler and Hickson's man has rotated down to help with no fear that Hickson can hit the long jumper or will back cut him for a dunk.

Salmons dumps off to Evans with 7 on the clock. Evans drives as Thornton take two steps up for no reason. Salmons moves towards Thornton creating terrible spacing. Hickson has taken a step towards the ball, but is still standing in no man's land at 19 feet.

Evans gets to the hoop and hits the And 1 shot. Thornton and Salmons are still in the same spots, spaced terribly. Hickson is still at 19 feet. Cousins also standing still, but he's at least in the right position. Evans has bailed us out, but this is terrible, terrible offense. We could trade for pure point guard Jose Calderon tomorrow and he would curl up in the fetal position and cry. There is no movement and no passing lanes here. Just everyone standing and hoping Evans can create a miracle.

Play 10 (Magic)

Magic start another set batched on one side. You can already see Hedo pointing and communicating with teammates.

Anderson swings through and heads towards the corner. Hedo heads to the low post. Richardson..... stands.

As screen and roll occurs, Hedo cuts up top towards the three point line. Anderson and Richardson stand in opposite corners.

As Nelson penetrates, Hedo reaches the top of the circle and rolls towards the top of the three point line. He has lost his defender and is wide open for three. This moving without ball concept "threatens to revolutionize basketball."* Anderson stands. Trainers check Richardson to see if he still has a pulse.

* Quote from Kenny Natt [Needs sources]

This was the crafty play where Nelson acted like he was going to bounce outside like earlier and then spun back to the hoop and got a layup. Howard has rolled. Hedo is moving towards the trigger position as an outlet for Nelson. Anderson like last time moves up higher to create a passing angle for Nelson. Important to note that first time wasn't a fluke. Anderson seems to understand that when Nelson drives and then continues to the opposite side of the court, he needs to rotate up to create a passing lane. Stark contrast with our team.

Play 11 (Kings)

Thornton initiates offense. Hickson is in the low post. Evans is standing in the "Evans spot." Salmons is auditioning to play Jason Richardson in the Dwight Howard Trade movie.

Ball is swung to Cousins as Evans fakes baseline and cuts back up. Love that in our offense there are no real cuts or off ball screens, only fake ones. It's like if the 49ers ran no running plays, but had play action passes. Thornton stands in trigger position. Hickson moves towards the opposite side of key. Salmons is still standing like he thinks Dwight Howard's eyesight is based on movement.

Cousins faces hoop as Evans runs behind his back. Cousins dribbles at three point line. Hickson takes his spot in low post. Thornton stands still. Salmons might be a cardboard cut-out or Fathead on the court.

Cousins puts shoulder down and drives. No one else has moved except Evans who stepped backwards out of shooting position. Maybe the worst place Evans could move to. Like a stopped clock, this would have worked if Cousins kept his head up as Thornton and Salmons were open with the Magic needlessly gambling. Nelson in particular made a bad decision leaving Thornton. Instead Cousins missed badly.

Play 12 (Magic)

Nelson starts offense up top. Hedo drifts to one corner. Anderson is running to low post. Richardson... well, let's just say this isn't exactly Where's Waldo.

Howard comes up to screen as Magic have two in the corners and Anderson set up in the low post.

This time as Nelson drives off the screen, Richardson cuts to the trigger position and Anderson moves from the low post to the corner. This coordinated off the ball movement may seem alien to community members who became Kings fans post-Adelman.

This dastardly display of movement confuses the Kings defense (i.e. Hickson who stays in low post). Nelson throws a bad pass to a wide open Anderson, but as Evans runs over to help and contest the three...

Anderson swings it to a wide open Richardson. Unlike our players, notice how Anderson immediately turns back to receive the ball again. Hedo also starts drifting to the trigger position for a swing pass. Nelson is standing out of bounds. He studied off ball movement from Evans.

Richardson puts down one dribble and swings to a wide open Anderson. Hedo has also moved up high enough to be open for a cross-court pass if necessary. Anderson drains the shot.

Play 13 (Kings)

Evans initiates offense and gets immediate screen from Cousins. Everyone in the stadium knows where Salmons and Thornton are. Hickson is standing in no man's land.

Evans drives and Cousins does a soft roll. Hickson stands. Thornton drifts up top as Nelson continues to cheat big time. Not really sure where he's going as his old position is a perfect outlet for where Evans is driving. Salmons. Ugh.

As Anderson doubles Evans swings the ball to Hickson. Thornton is actually in good position now. Cousins cuts hard to the hoop. Salmons doesn't stay in the corner or move up higher for the swing pass. He actually steps into two point territory, but not towards the hoop. Literally the worst angle I can think of for him to be taking.

Thornton gets swing pass. Cousins is in good rebound position. Evans pops towards opposite corner. Hickson stands. Salmons to his credit moves back into a position to receive a pass. Kings get the three pointer. At least they get credit for having better spacing. But the off ball movement was atrocious. This play was created out of thin air by Evans.

Play 14 (Magic)

Nelson starts the offense from up high. This time the Magic show a different look. Dwight is in high post. Anderson is in low post. Hedo starts in no man's land. Richardson is in the Richardson memorial corner. Someday we will spread his ashes there.

As the screen occurs, Hedo pops up and Anderson pops out to the corner. Richardson stands still. Howard cuts hard.

As Nelson dribbles towards the middle this time Hedo continues to roll up top. Actually a bad dribble by Nelson as it cuts off a streaking Howard. Fortunately Nelson pulls up and misses.

Play 15 (Kings)

The infamous possession starts with Evans initiating. Salmons and Thornton are in the Groundhog Day positions. Hickson is in the low post.

Cousins gets the ball. Nobody moves.

Evans gets it back and Cousins goes to screen. Thronton is at least moving up to be an outlet pass if needed, but is high and out of shooting position. Hickson and Salmons stay stationary.

Evans goes right and so far everyone is standing in the same position. Given the angle Evans is driving from and the position of the defenders, the ref appears to be in the best position to receive a pass. Remember how Howard rolled hard to the hoop? Cousins is standing one step in from the three point line.

Evans gets to the hoop 3 seconds later. Cousins, Thornton, Hickson and Salmons are standing in the same position. Anderson has come over to help. Hedo covers Hickson. Salmons is open. But Salmons is also standing stationary and not looking to create a better passing angle. Notice how there are two Magic defenders and Hickson between Evans and Salmons. The corner isn't a bad spot when a player is driving baseline, but given the congestion, moving up to where the ref is would actually create a passing angle for Evans. The same can be said for Thornton sliding down slightly to the trigger position. You can see Evans face and the large open space going from his eyes, through the key to the three point line.

Evans starts to twist. Arguably he could pass to Salmons, though the angle isn't very good. Again, everyone is standing in the same position. No off the ball movement. At least Hickson looks like he is fighting for a potential rebound. Evans misses. Game over. We get a turnover and a garbage alley-oop from Evans to Hickson with the Magic playing prevent defense.

________________________________________________________________________________

And that was the game. Overall, there is a lot on offense and defense that can be taken from these pictures. But my real motivation here is to show how our offense does nothing to maximize our players abilities or to get us into position to score. There is no off ball movement or smart positioning by our players.

The Magic are not known for having a complex offense. They run a very simple offense based around a superstar talent. However, even they utilize off ball movement to get into position for high percentage shots. For all of our criticism of Evans and DMC, our offense is completely stationary. Both Evans and Cousins are good and willing-ish passers. However, we are not running an offense to open any passing lanes for them.

Right now, they have the pressure to create something out of nothing on every single play. Against good defenses, that is exceptionally hard to do. Until we install an offense that caters to our strengths and emphasizes off the ball cuts and screens, we can bring in the world's purest PG and will still have a difficult time scoring efficiently. Right now we are conducting a playground-style offense where players just take turn creating 1-on-1 or running a screen and roll. We have no movement, no trickery and no spacing. We are putting no pressure on the defense. That doesn't work at the NBA level.

Some of this is running more/better plays and some is teaching fundamentals. I don't think the Magic were running plays on every set, but they knew how to position themselves and move into positions to recieve the ball. Notice how the Magic created open passing lanes for Howard and Nelson on almost every play. Our team does not do that. Our players tend to stand in one spot until the pass comes or they need to run and get the ball from a teammate. The one time the Magic stood around like us, Howard got blocked in the lane and flailed around like Evans & Cousins do at times. The disaster here isn't our players. We have talent. It's not perfect talent, but we have more talent than a number of teams with a better record. We just don't run a NBA offense and it is killing our team.

[Note: This doesn't absolve our players for not moving or mean they have nothing to learn. Evans and Cousins are very, very young and still learning to make the right basketball decisions. They have a lot to improve on. However, our obscenely simple offense is robbing the team of easy baskets, making everything come hard and making Cousins and Evans look less efficient by forcing them to create something from nothing on every play without having their teammates even create passing lanes on many plays. Likewise, this doesn't mean that Petrie has done a marvelous job and everything wrong is with the coaching. However, I think Petrie is a good GM. Adelman made him look fantastic by getting the most out of both great players and role players. Now, horrendous coaching is making Petrie look far worse than he is and making a young, talented team look much awful. That, however, is a topic to explore further on another day.)

     Let me start off by saying I have nothing against Kawhi Leonard.  He seems like a nice guy.  He’s overcome adversity.  His teammates like him.  And quite frankly, I have no reason to be down on him.  I want there to be star caliber players available at number 7.  I want a reason to believe in all of these players.  And I am completely open to there being Synergy Sports data or scouting information I don’t have that tells a different story.

     Sadly, for our hopes of having Leonard solve our SF issues, I just can’t find a lot of data that makes me think he can do that. Let’s get to it.

Defense

     I’m starting with defense, because this is supposed to be Leonard’s best skill.  Any evaluation on him discusses how he can be a top flight defender.  Oddly, these profiles have struck me as being more aspirational than being based off of college performance or any data.  Of course, defensive data is much scarcer than offensive metrics.  So, let’s try to work with what we have.

     One of the first measures of good college defenders is something I read a couple of years ago when Donte Greene was being evaluated for the draft.  One of the analysts noted that he had over a block and over a steal a game, which historically was a sign of players who were athletic and capable defenders, which led them to be good defensive pros.  While a lot of defense in the NBA is about playing good positional defense, even NBA defenders who don’t get a lot of blocks and steals typically have gaudy numbers against inferior college competition in at least one of those categories.

     So I compiled the block and steal numbers for a variety of good to great NBA wing defenders.  For fun, I looked back at our very own Doug Christie as well.

(For the record, the draft’s other defensive wing, Chris Singleton, had 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per game)

Perhaps what stands out most about Kawhi’s defensive numbers are how little they stand out. 

     Of the 18 players listed above, Leonard ranks 15th overall in steals.  If we went on a per minute basis, he would drop to 16th, as Wallace’s numbers were in only 22 minutes a game (everyone else played 30+).

Out of the 18 players on the list, Leonard ranks 13th in blocks per game. 

     This certainly doesn’t mean he can’t be a good defender.  His numbers are very comparable to Iguodala, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.  However, Iguodala also appears to be an exception to the rule here.  I will let you draw your own conclusions.

     Considering that Draftexpress praises him for “his length [that] often allows him to make plays in the passing lanes and contest shots” there is not a lot of evidence that this potential is translating onto the court.

     Another tool that I like to use in evaluating prospects is to look at their boxscores and see how they performed against other NBA caliber prospects they faced.  In that past this has been the downfall (for me) with supposed defenders such as Hilton Armstrong, who put up great block numbers against mediocre teams, but then got torched every time they faced a potential NBA player.

     Sadly, SDSU had a very soft schedule and Leonard did not face a single SG/SF/PF who ESPN has ranked in their top 60 draft prospects.  So while it’s possible he is a good man defender, there really isn’t any evidence we can use to prove or disprove that fact.

     SDSU did face BYU 3 times.  Jimmer had some good and bad stats against them.  They also played UCONN in the tournament and Kemba hit 12 of 24 shots and Lamb hit 9 of 11.  Without knowing who Leonard guarded, it’s very hard to draw any conclusions. ESPN claims that Leonard “lacks great lateral quickness,” so it wouldn’t be a surprise or an indictment of him if he did not guard the PGs.  I would question either SDSU’s coach or Leonard’s abilities if he wasn’t guarding the 6’5’’ SG Lamb though.

     Overall, nothing here would conclusively rule out Leonard becoming a great defender. However, I believe his lack of elite specialty numbers and the inability to judge his defense against even 2nd round NBA talent should dampens some of the expectations that he will automatically become a very good defensive player.

Offense

     While the defensive metrics might lessen expectations, the offensive numbers are much more conclusive.  The list below is a bit more scattered in terms of player types.  But I took a cross-section of players from this draft and NBA players with similar body types. 

     Of the 19 players listed, Leonard had the worst 3 point percentage.  While some of these players are shooters, Leonard ranked behind Tony Allen, Corey Brewer, Ronnie Brewer and Caron Butler– none of whom have been good outside shooters in the NBA.

     We knew that Leonard needed to work on his outside shot, so my hope when I first started looking at the numbers was that he scored efficiently close to the hoop.  However, Leonard ranked 17th in 2 point percentage.  And according to Draftexpress, Synergy statistics had him “finish[ing] at just an average 53% rate around the rim.”

     And in case you wanted to attribute his poor shooting to him taking tough shots off the dribble, Draftexpress used Synergy’s data to find he hit only “32% of his catch and shoot jumpers.” 

     Kawhi seemed to realize his limitations, as he tied 2 others players for the 3rd smallest percentage of 3PA per FGA.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, except it makes it even stranger that he finished dead last in FTA per FGA.  And he didn’t just finish last, but looking at the chart, he lost badly.

     Scoring in general is an issue for him as Draftexpress writes, “according to Synergy Sports Technology, no single offensive situation accounted for more than 17% of his touches, with Spot-Ups, Isolations, Put Backs, Fast Breaks, Cuts, and Pick and Roll situations each accounting for anywhere between 8-18% of his total possessions. Leonard ranks right around the 45th percentile amongst all NCAA players in each of those metrics in terms of Points Per-Possession.” So he does not have a single scoring dimension he excels at even at the NCAA level.

     Also, while he is a decent ball handler, Leonard was tied for 12th in Assists per FGA. So basically, when he drives, he’s not making baskets efficiently, drawing fouls or setting up his teammates. 

     Again, if there’s hope on this list, it’s that his numbers bear some resemblance to our new favorite outlier – Andre Iguodala.  Although, to be fair, Iguodala made a higher percentage of 3s than Leonard. He had 1 assist for every 2 FGA (compared to 1 per 5 for Leonard).  And Iguodala had a higher 2 point FG% and FT% than Leonard.

So Is It All Bad?

No.  To be fair to Leonard, there are two things he does very well.

     While his A/T percentage isn’t elite, it is above average for a wing.  He’s generally below the true play-making wings like Iguodala, Turner, and Harden.  However, he does appear to be a good ball handler and avoids poor decisions compared to other SFs.

     Leonard also appears to be an elite rebounder on both sides of the ball.  The big offensive rebounding numbers show he wasn’t just the one big man for SDSU cleaning up opponents misses.  Since rebounding numbers do translate very well to the NBA, there’s no reason Leonard won’t be an elite rebounder for a SF in the league.

Overall

     So what does this all mean?  To be clear, these advanced statistics are still being perfected at the NBA level, where games and competition are much more uniform.  There is certainly much more noise at the NCAA-level.  I will be interested in hearing other’s opinions below.

     My beliefs based on the data though is that team that drafts Leonard  will be getting an elite rebounder who can help them on the boards the second he steps foot on the court. 

     However, offensively, he appears to be a bit of a disaster.  An issue that should become more pronounced in the NBA, where finishing inside will become harder than in the MWC.  Especially, since Synergy data showed there is not a single scoring situation that Leonard excels at.

     Defensively, there certainly is hope.  He has a great body and solid athleticism.  However, he did not face a single, draftable prospect all season and his peripheral numbers do not match up with other great defenders.  So while he might become a quality defender, it is also not a guarantee. 

    As for our Kings, our biggest needs are players who can play off the ball and score, distribute and help set up the offense at times, and defend the perimeter.  While it is possible that Leonard might do one of those three, he is enough of a liability offensively that I sincerely struggle to see how he would fit on our roster. 

     If Petrie rolls the dice on draft day, I will think positive thoughts and hope Leonard is another outlier like Iguodala.  Leonard is very young and all anecdotal evidence suggests that he is a hard worker and is very coachable.  That gives me hope.  However, it is questionable how soon Leonard will be able to contribute.  Even if he develops into a legitimate starting SF, it may not be for another 3-4 years.

Notes: The only statistics used in the tables were ones that appeared relevant (i.e. there was a noticeable different among Kawhi and the prospects.  Nothing good or bad was left out, information was not cherry-picked to tell a story as I have no vested interest in making Leonard look good or bad.  The data came from Draftexpress and my excel sheets were much bigger, but there are space limitations to pasting rows into Excel.  I am happy to email the data itself to anyone who PMs me.

So I am a draft junkie.  Since I was a little kid, I have followed the draft way too closely.  Call it a side effect on the PX of the Kings Fan pill I swallowed when I was 6.  The 80s and 90s gave me ample opportunity to become a veteran of the lottery process.  When I was a teenager, I went with my parents to Arco and watched Petrie announce we were drafting Corliss Williamson (to a chorus of boos, fans wanted Randolph Keys) and Peja (to a chorus of boos, fans wanted John Wallace).  As I got older and this thing called the internet was invented by Al Gore, I started becoming a complete geek, following games logs, stats, analysis, etc.

So now that the Maloofs decided "the only fair" thing was to stay in Sacramento "because of the loyal fans," I am freaking excited to talk about the draft. 

With that said, let me kick off the first official draft thread of the off-season.  While we all wait for Section’s Annual masterpiece and some of the other traditional threads, I thought I would do an introductory draft post for those of you just starting to wade into the 2011 Draft Pool. 

My only caveat is my knowledge of these players tends to grow exponentially as we get closer to the draft, I only watch so much college ball (much more of a pro fan), so I reserve the right to have my opinion on these players flip flop 1027 times before draft day.

With that said, HERE WE DRAFT:

(Players listed in order of Draft Express rankings - Player Names are YouTube Videos)

1: Kyrie Irving – PG – 6-2 180

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kyrie-Irving-5735/

Best Case: Less explosive Chris Paul

Worst Case: Devin Harris with better 3s

One of the safest picks of the draft.  He has court vision, a jump shot and a high basketball IQ.  Should be the #1 pick unless the Nets get the pick and want to pair Deron Williams with Derrick Williams.  Or David Kahn gets the first pick and decides that Enes Kanter is Ambrosia from the Gods® (I better get paid when he says that).  He’s the closest thing to a pure PG in this draft, but even he hedged more towards the "shoot first" side of the scale in college.  Should be very good, but scouts question if he has the physical traits to be a true superstar.  Pretty much the same thing said about Blake Griffin, so you know they have to be right.

2: Derrick Williams – SF/PF – 6’8’’ 235

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Williams-5811/

Best Case: Rich man’s Jamison/Granger hybrid

Worst Case: Channing Frye

A big that can shoot and drive.  His handles aren’t great, but good enough to do straight line drives and take advantage of bigs who come out to guard his jumper.  Scouts aren’t sure if he’s a 3 or a 4.  My gut says he’s a 3 in the NBA, playing 4 in the right matchup.   He is a very efficient player with a tremendous basketball IQ.  He’s another very safe pick.

3: Jonas Valanciuna – PF 6’11’’ 240

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jonas-Valanciunas-5622/

Best Case: A good player

Worst Case: A less good player

I really fell in love with this Jonas brother the 15th time I saw him play.  No kidding, I have never watched him play.  According to ESPN and Draftexpress, he’s a high energy player with hops.  Tough defender and competitor, with limited offensive game.  On one board, a posted called him Kirilenko on crack.  I remember Hightops saying in his scouting reports that we had too few players on crack this year.  So he's got that going for him.

4: Kemba Walker – PG/SG – 6’0’’ 180

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kemba-Walker-5152/

Best Case: Good Steve Francis

Worse Case: Jarrett Jack

5: Brandon Knight – PG – 6’3 170

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Brandon-Knight-5140/

Best Case: Chauncey Billups

Worst Case: Mario Chalmers

After some initial debate, I decided I had to do these two together.  Especially considering we are probably picking in this range, the debate of Kemba versus Knight could easily dominate the summer. 

Kemba is the leader of the national champions.  Knight is a freshman who led his team to the final four.  Pretty much every draft site I can find favors Kemba.

So let’s just look at some very basic stat lines

As most college basketball fans probably know, the top line is Kemba Walker’s freshman year.  The second line is Brandon Knight this year.  The 3rd line is Kemba this year.

Really, the only advantage Kemba has is that he is two years older.  But that’s really not an advantage when drafting for the pros.

Knight is taller.  Knight was a better three point shooter by far as a freshman and is almost as good now.  Knight is a much better defender.  And Knight was also a 4.0 student in high school.  He will have enough credits at the end of his freshman year at Kentucky to be a Junior.  And he had (as of the tournament) a 4.0 in college.  Kemba Walker just finished reading his first book ever this year. 

We don’t want to repeat the Warriors Todd Fuller mistake, but considering Knight has most of the other advantages in my book, the smart be would be the freshman PG with the better tools and 4.0 GPA instead of the junior PG who just finished his first book.  Just saying.

Of course I’ll remain neutral on this debate until closer to the draft, but feel free to draw your own conclusions from the unbiased information presented above

6: Bismack Biyombo – 6’9’’ 240

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bismack-Biyombo-5902/

Best Case: Follows Serge Ibaka’s developmental curve

Worst Case: Danny Almonte 

Little known prospect who dominated at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland recently and saw his draft stock skyrocket when he recorded the first triple double in Hoops Summit history with 12 points, 11 rebounds and 10 blocks.  Thought as Draft Express points out, he is already one of the most efficient and is the best shot blocker in one of the most competitive leagues outside of the NBA – so he didn’t just "come out of nowhere."  His skills appear to be legit.  Like some other foreign prospects from less developed countries (he’s originally from Congo), there are questions about if he is indeed 18, 22, 26 or perhaps 47.  No one really knows.   

7: Enes Kanter – C – 6’10’’ 250

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Enes-Kanter-5168/

Best Case: Good Brad Miller

Worst Case: Bad Brad Miller

Post moves? Check.  Jumper.  Check.  Limited athleticism? Check.  Bad knees? Check.  Savvy game? Check.  Spends off seasons hunting and chugging beers?  I’ll have to get back to you.  I hate the Brad Miller comparisons because most fans have forgotten there once was a very good Brad Miller.  But also because it may not be accurate.  With the European players, I’m really just regurgitating Chad Ford and Draftexpress with my own spin.  Hopefully someone who has seen him play more can weigh in.

8: Jan Vesley – SF/PF – 6’11 240

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jan-Vesely-1402/

Best Case: Better than sliced bread

Worst Case: Better than a sharp stick in the eye

9: Donatas Motiejunas – PF – 7’0’’ 215

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Donatas-Motiejunas-1300/

Best Case: Dirk FREAKNIG Nowitzki, ummm....  Let's go with Bargnani.

Worst Case: Vladimir Radmanovic

Since I haven’t actually seen the European players play, I am not going to waste too much space writing what you can read if you follow the Draftexpress links.  I will just sum up that Vesley is an athletic, energy player who is very explosive, but who needs to improve his outside shot. 

Montiejunas sounds like every Dirk wannabe that has been drafted since Nowtizki became a legend.  He’s tall and a good shooter and scorer.  He’s also poor defensively, not a good rebounder and scouts question his toughness. 

10: Alec Burks – SG/SF – 6’6’’ 200

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Alec-Burks-5819/

Best case: Poor man’s Rudy Gay? Struggled with this one.

Worst case: Flip Murray

An athletic wing who can create his own shot and create havoc in the paint, but can’t shoot (shot 29% on his 3s as a sophomore).  He’s also a decent passer with the tools to become a good defender, though it’s questionable if he showed his full potential in college since he carried Colorado’s offense. Probably not what we need right now.  Questionable how effective he’ll be playing off the ball in the NBA, especially at first.

11: Terrence Jones – SF/PF - 6’8’’ 244

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Terrence-Jones-5708/

Best Case: Everything we want Donte Greene to be (Marion-Odom hybrid)

Worst Case: Better rebounding Donte Greene we have now

The player from this draft I want to like the most, but who also terrifies me.  In theory the perfect player for our 3 spot.  He has the potential to be a great man and team defender.  He’s very active on defense and blocked a ton of shots.  He had stretches in the NCAA tournament where he single handedly wreaked havoc on the other team’s offense.  He’s got a slow release on his jump shot, but makes a decent percentage.  Good but not great ball handler who can create his own shot, especially on straight-line drives.  For better or for worse, he doesn’t demand the ball and at Kentucky seemed content to play within the flow of the offense and always make the "right" play.  He never really showed the killer instinct to take over games though, even when he had a favorable matchup.  Scouts question if he can play small forward and there is some concern he could wind up an undersized PF.

12: Jimmer – PG/SG – 6’2’’ 195

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jimmer-Fredette-5810/

Best Case: Stephen Curry

Worst Case: JJ Redick

I diverged from Draftexpress here.  Sue me.  Jimmer is more fun to talk about than Kawhi Leonard.  There won’t be a more widely debated player between now and the draft than Jimmer.  And the debate will be very similar to the players listed above.

I think he’ll fall squarely in between Curry and Redick.  I don’t think he’s a star, but Jimmer can dribble, pass, shoot and is more athletic than he gets credit for.  You will hear some people compare him to Adam Morrison, but he’s a better shooter and athlete.  He’s stronger and more athletic than Redick or Kapono.  He handles the ball and passes far better than a James Jones or Trajon Langdon.  I think Jimmer will have a nice career.  I wouldn’t want him as one of my top two players, but he should be a nice complementary piece.

Others:

Chris Singleton – Defensive stud SF who can shoot.  Nice trade down candidate for us.

Kenneth Faried – Brockman with athleticism and shot blocking. 

Kawhi Leonard – Athletic SF, who is mildly like Alec Burks, but worse.

Tyler Honeycut – Lacks focus and skill, but reminds me a lot of Trevor Ariza coming out of school.  Potential is there.

Ok, now it’s your turn.  Hopefully this kickoff primer was helpful, if very imperfect.  Now it’s your turn.

Who is the best fit for the Kings?

Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight?

Where was I wrong?

Can anyone fill in the gaps on the foreign players?

Terrence, Jimmer, and Burks – studs or busts?

So this is going to be my longest post yet.  However, a pet peeve of mine has been coming up a lot over the last couple of months and it’s this ridiculous notion that Tyreke Evans isn’t enough of a passer and our best option is to put another playmaker next to him. 

These jabs range in lunacy – from insane ramblings about how we need to trade Evans to gentler assertions that we need Raymond Felton or Andre Miller to come run the show.  The theories are not only incorrect, but would most likely hurt our team..  While Tyreke may have room to grow, people are so focused on the flaws in his passing, they are missing out on what an amazing passer Reke actually is for a 21 year old. 

Ok, let’s go to the data:

Tyreke Evans doesn’t pass enough.  We shouldn’t run our offense through him.

So setting aside the notion of PG v SG for a bit.  We can all agree that most teams have a primary ball handler who facilitates the offense in the half court.  In some cases it is a PG like Chris Paul or Deron Williams.  However, in other cases it might be a SG or SF like a Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, or Brandon Roy.  So let’s take a look at some of the non-PGs who facilitate the offense for their team:

(Yes, Kevin Martin was included as a joke)

Not a bad list at all.  And even withholding Martin, of the 7 guards/forwards listed who facilitate their team’s offense a large percentage of the time, Reke is 3rd.  He’s trailing only Joe Johnson and LeBron James by a couple of percentage points. 

Even more impressive, before Reke suffered his ankle injury in early January (before he started looking healthier and playing much better) his AR was 20%.  If I round up to 20.64 for simplicities sake.  That means since he came back from the injury, Reke’s Assist Rate has been 32.91%.  5% points higher than any player on this list.  Thought I am guessing no one would suggest Kobe or LeBron need Andre Miller to run the offense.

In fact his 32.91% Assist Rate would be within 2% points of Beno Udrih (34.31), Chauncey Billups (34.25), Russell Westbrook, and Baron Davis (34.18).  It would also give him a higher Assist Rate than Darren Collison (32.30), Stephen Curry (31.28), and Derrick Rose (30.50).

Ok.  Great players. But can you win a ring with a ball hog like Reke?

So just looking at a list of great players may be interesting, but it doesn’t answer our franchise’s ultimate question: can we win a championship building a team around Tyreke Evans.  The long version is very complex, and I am not attempting to answer with this post.  However, we can examine elite teams and see if Reke is a good enough passer to be a primary ball handler for a potential champion.  Below are all of the "go to" guards and forwards for teams in the Conference Finals since 2007.

(PG/SG/SF based on highest PER were chosen.  Certainly if we put Howard and Duncan on this list, the AR would drop even further, but I wanted to compare apples to apples and comparing Evans to a Center seems disingenuous.  I also chose 2 Spurs in ’08 as both Parker and Ginobili were essentially identical.)

Looking at the data above, both Reke’s full year numbers and his January/February sub-set appear to make him a good enough passer to be the focal point of an elite team. 

What’s interesting is that similar to the data in the usage article I did last week, you will notice a pattern of pure PGs diminishing as you get to higher levels of the playoffs.  Again, you don’t want a ball hog on your team per say, but if you viewed all players on a passing versus scoring spectrum, it appears having a player who skews towards the scoring end of the spectrum gives you the best chance at a title. 

Also interesting is that even ignoring Kobe, who has been called a ball hog before, Evan’s passing numbers are competitive with or better than most of the similar players on this list (Ginobili, Pierce, LeBron, and Hedo).  So it’s not Kobe’s repeated appearances on the list that is making Evans look good.

But we still need Andre Miller. Who do you put next to your primary ball handler?

(*Jameer Nelson was clearly intended to be the Magic’s PG, but he was injured during the season and Rafer Alston was their PG as they made their run to the finals  **Manu was the 6th man, but also the Spurs’ best G/F ***Eric Snow started most games at PG during the regular season.  However, Gibson played an additional 158 minutes or 8mpg during the playoffs)

I will be very interested in other people’s observations, but here is what I got from this table.

·        Most of these teams surrounded their primary ball handler with 1 low usage and 1 medium usage G/SF.  So between PG, SG and SF you generally can have 1 high, 1 mid and 1 low usage starter. 

·        The Spurs are a very interesting team in that they were successful with 2 high usage back court players.  Parker is also an aberration compared to the other PGs on this list.  All of this might explain why Pop used Manu off the bench.  To take advantage of the 3 very unique talents he had.  A brilliant move in retrospect.

·        Most of the other 2 G/SF were lights out shooters.  As you might imagine, great team’s surrounded their Primary Ball Handlers with great shooters who could space the floor.  Every team except for the ’10 Lakers had at least one player shooting 39%, most had more, and the average, non-star G/SF shot 38.46%.

·        All of these team’s except the ’07 Cavs paired their primary ball handler with a great big man.  It varied which player was better.  Your average big man had a 23.82 usage rate and a 57.38% True Shooting Percentage.

·        Venturing away from the data, I’d also note that most of these team’s had a designated defensive stopper who was not the primary ball handler.  Artest, Bowen, Lee and Hughes all allowed the star players to save some energy for offense.  This doesn’t mean the primary ball handler wasn’t a good defender either.  Kobe and James in particular were good man defenders, but it’s hard to carry the O and D for 40+ minutes.

·        The PGs next to the Primary Ball Handlers are interesting too.  Take out Rondo (who was the Primary Ball Handler) and Parker (see earlier bullet) and they have a 16.2 Usage, 30.06 Assist Rate and shot 36.13% on 3 pointers.  Their role is to catch and shoot, not to take the ball out of the Primary Ball Handler’s hands.

What does this mean for the Kings?

Well, let’s take a look at our starting 5:

Well, Reke and Cousins seem to fit.  Thought both will need to bring up their TS% from this season.  Reke’s was higher last year and the drop can largely be explained by the plantar fasciitis.  Cousins is very young, but will need to raise his TS% about 10 points. 

Beno actually appears to fit in better than I would have guessed.  Though he is an awful defender.  Same with Casspi.  Ideally though we can replace one of them with a medium usage player.  It seems easier to find one at SF, but if we get Irving, that should work as well.  We also need that player to be a stud defender if we are going to keep Casspi or Beno in the lineup long term.

Ok, stats are nice, but everyone says Reke can’t pass.  Why?

Personally, I think there are two reasons.  One out of Reke’s control and one that is self-inflicted. 

The first reason is simply that he has been unfairly stereotyped.  Coming out of college, many analysts said he is not a PG or a great passer.  So even now, they pay attention only to evidence supporting their conclusion.  Psychologically, this is called a Confirmation Bias.  Basically, Reke is fighting against the story that people have already made up about him.

To show the effect of this bias, here is one more comparison:

Very similar numbers.  Rose had a higher assist rate and lower usage rate as a rookie.  Partially because his team had Deng, Hinrich, Salmons, Gordon, and Miller instead of Beno, Greene, Casspi, Hawes and JT. 

Even in January/February when Reke had an assist rate higher than Rose has ever had, he was getting criticized for being too selfish and not enough of a passer.  Has anyone ever said that about Derrick Rose?  If so, I haven’t heard it.  Why is that?  Because coming out of college Rose was thought of as a PG and since 25-30% is a good assist rate for a star player, no one has ever questioned that assumption. 

And Reke wasn’t getting accusations during January/February because of a diminished TS% either. During that time his TS% was 52.11% (53.29 if you take out that awful first game back against the Knicks).

Evans is trending with very similar statistics to Rose, but in the eyes of sports writers Rose is a true PG and Evans is a selfish player who needs to learn to pass.

Now, the second part I believe is also feeding into this stereotype.  The part that is self-inflicted by Evans is the "hero complex" he gets in the last 2-3 minutes of a close game.  As Henry Abbot demonstrated very well on Truhoop, both Kobe Bryant and any team running isolations is using an inefficient offense.

Evans passes the ball well and willingly for the first 45 minutes of the game, but when the game gets tight, we run the 1 Flat Four and Reke takes predictable, hard shots while forgetting about his teammates.  These "end of game" struggles feed into the view that Evans doesn’t pass enough.

Fortunately, there is no reason why that should not be a very correctable error.  Given Evans passing ability and the degree with which he passes over the first 45 minutes of the game, I expect the problem to be corrected with more experience. 

Otherwise, let’s forget the ridiculous notions that Reke cannot pass and that we need a high usage, true PG next to him.  It doesn’t fit either with the current statistics we have or the historical statistics of what you need to win a championship.

I suspended my basketball related Fan Posts around the Here We Stay game, as I thought it was the most important Kings related business at the moment.  I’ve been hesitant to post even now with the proverbial Sword of Damocles hanging over the future of the Kings in Sacramento.

However, I think we all need a distraction and now would be a great time to get back to discussing some basketball.  Reading 10 posts/shots a day about the likely move is just depressing.

So… all the talk of how Thornton will fit in on the team with Reke back got me thinking.  From a skills standpoint, it would seem that Thronton could coexist with Evans and Cousins.  A shooter to space the floor, who can also drive when the defense is off balance and create some shots is a welcome addition.  However, I’ve heard both fans and commentators wondering if the Kings had too many high usage players now.

Can 3 players with high usage rates share the floor and win?  What if we acquire another high usage player via the draft, a trade or free agency and Thornton becomes a 6th man?

With that in mind, I decided to take a look back at some of the great teams since ’99 and examined the top Usage rates on their teams for players who were an integral part of their rotation.  To qualify a team had to have at least made the Conference Finals.  And I only took 1 iteration of each Core Team.  For example, there are 2 Spurs teams listed, but only 1 with the Duncan/Ginobili/Parker core and 1 with the Duncan/Robinson/Elliot core.

(* means they won the championship; Under player 4 I listed some additional, notable players with very high usage, but the usage in parenthesis was not factored into the average)

Observations

• Most teams had one very high usage player and a couple of others in the low to mid 20s.
• There are two main builds for great teams.  Two uber-stars with usage over 30 and supporting players in the 17-20 range.  Or several very good players spread in the 22-27 range.
• Interestingly, even if you look at total championships or finals appearances, there is no 1 model for success.  Having a top player of course is a prerequisite, but in terms of usage, the Lakers won 3 with two players over 30.  The Spurs have one several with their three headed beast.  The Lakers won two more with one 30 and several 20s.  And the Celtics, Nets, Magic and Pistons won 2 and appeared in 5 more with more evenly distributed teams.
• 14 of the 20 teams (70%) had one bench player in their top 4.  The average usage for that player was 21.34 for all teams, 21.86 for team’s without a player with a usage of 30 and 20.12 for teams with a player that high.  I’m not sure the 1.86 difference means anything.  But I am open to interpretations.
• Two odd teams stuck out.  On the 76ers, Iverson’s absurd 35.9 usage rate is something we probably won’t see succeed on this level for a long time.  To put in in perspective, the only player I found who was higher on this elite of a team was Michael Joran in ’91 where he had a 37.1 usage.  Jordan hovered between 31-34.7 in his other 5 championships.  And the Spurs who had 3 players with a usage higher than 27.  They really did center their offense around a “Big 3.”
• Only 1 team (Pistons) has won a championship when there best player did not have their highest usage.  That’s 14.29% and that’s without factoring the teams with multiple rings.
• Only 2 teams (Pistons and Nets) have even made the finals when their best player doesn’t have their highest usage.  Point being that for all the love pure PGs get, most teams that find success in the playoffs have stars who certainly have passing skills, but on the passer-scorer scale lean more towards scorer.

What This Means for the Kings

It certainly appears that having 3 or 4 high usage players won’t be an issue for us.  How they mesh will be important.  And certainly how they develop will be, as right now our 3 high usage players certainly are not at the level of the players listed above. 

It would also appear that two of our players will likely have to curb their usage some to fit into the models above.  How easy that will be to do with teammates who can carry more of the load I am not sure.  This quick and dirty analysis did not look at usage progressions over time or with different teammates.  

Obviously there is a lot more data here and I only did a minor analysis of it tonight (going to the Bay Area this weekend).  So I look forward to your thoughts and observations below.

There has been one misconception by Kings fans that has killed me for years.  This notion that Pervis Ellison was a terrible draft pick and a bad basketball player.  This came up again today in Pookey's excellent piece on the Top 25 Worst Moments for the Sacramento Kings.

Poor Pervis wound up #8.  Strictly speaking, Pookey isn't wrong.  If we just look at career numbers, Pervis Ellison was a bust.  The same way Jay Williams, Bobby Hurley, and Shawn Livingston were busts.  After playing an injury free college career, Ellison developed chronic injury problems that medicine wasn't equipped to deal with back then.  However, the following paragraph from Pookey’s post got to me:

“Here's what not in dispute. Pervis Ellison sucked and did for most of his career. In the time of the lottery, there has never been a franchise that has gotten less mileage and value out of their #1 pick than the Kings. Not a single one. He averaged 8 points and 5.8 boards his lone season in playing a whole whopping 34 games. Any way you slice this, I don't want to think about it. Someone can slice up the awfulness of Never Nervous Pervous without me. It's making me nauseous just thinking about it, and I never saw the guy play.” (emphasis mine)

I don’t mean to pick on Pookey, who I have the utmost respect for.  This is a view shared by many Kings fans.  It comes up often on various message boards.  You’ll even hear analysts refer to Ellison as one of the biggest draft busts ever. 

However, the truth is that unless you consider someone with injuries beyond their control a bust, the numbers really don’t back up that argument.  And personally, I don’t classify injured players as busts, just as tragedies. 

Ask yourself this, if Blake Griffin shattered his leg tomorrow Shawn Livingston-stlye would he be one of the biggest draft busts ever?  I vote no.  I’d call him a great pick by the Clippers whose career was tragically cut short.

The #1s

Now clearly Ellison wasn’t a franchise player.  So I’m not going to bother comparing him to LeBron, Duncan, etc.  However, take a look at the table below showing the best seasons (by PER) of the non-Franchise #1 picks.

(25 years spans 1982-2006, it’s too early to compare any player who isn’t at least 24/25 as most players on the list had their “best year” then or later)

First, before any evaluation, here’s Ellison’s raw stat line in case anyone thinks I cherry-picked a year where Ellison averaged an efficient 8-6-2.

(Players who can put up 20-11 and block nearly 3 shots a game don’t grow on trees)

On the list are twelve #1 picks from the last 25 years who Ellison was either better than or very comparable too. 

Immediately you can see there were 5 players who were definitively worse (over 1 point less PER).  So Ellison was  a better player than 20% of the #1 picks from the 25 year sample.

Now look at all of the players whose best PER was +/- 1 point from Ellison’s.

Danny Manning, Ralph Sampson, James Worthy, Larry Johnson, Derrick Coleman, Glenn Robinson, and Andrew Bogut.

That's not a bad group to be compared to.  Yes, Coleman was a head case which lowers his value .  Worthy was blessed to land on a team with Magic and Kareem, so his status as a “winner” will elevate him in most people’s minds.  However, one could argue that if Worthy was drafted by the Kings and hurt himself and Ellison had been drafted by Showtime and received passes from Magic for a decade, our perceptions of these two players would be very different.

Overall though, no one would label the other players on that group as “busts.”  They are Classic Level 2 players.  They were never meant to be franchise players, but in the right situation would (or did) thrive.  And quite frankly that’s what we got in Ellison, a very good basketball player, who was never meant to be a superstar.

Some people might argue that the Kings got terribly unlucky to be in a draft without a clear franchise player.  And while there is some truth to that, you can see 12 of the 25 years featured no clear cut, franchise player.  Some later picks (KG, Kobe, etc.) became superstars, but at the time of the draft, most of the players listed were consensus #1 picks by the majority of NBA analysts.  So overall, in 50% of drafts, you’re not going to have a superstar handed to you.  It’s not bad luck, it’s just the NBA.

The 1989 Draft

What’s also interesting is that Ellison was not only a good NBA player, but realistically the Kings made the best pick they could have.  Sure we can dream about Tim Hardaway or Kemp, but truthfully there was no way ANY scout or GM would have taken them #1.  It’s not a realistic pick.

While not all of the players below are either.  Here are the same numbers for the players picked in the lottery in 1989:

Look at the top of that list.  Ellison’s best year was better than any of the top 10 picks.  You have to get down to Mookie and Hardaway before finding someone who had a better peak.  And I don’t think any team would have taken them #1.  More likely, most team’s were evaluating between Ellison, Ferry, Elliot, Rice, Reid and King.  Ellison’s peak was better than all of them.  Not bad and he potentially could have had a higher peak if injuries hadn’t derailed his career.

So what’s the point? 

Overall, the point here isn’t to convince anyone that the King’s didn’t have bad luck.  Their #1 pick suffered chronic injuries and the franchise traded him after 1 year for 50 cents on the dollar.  So Pookey was right to have him in the #8 slot of the Kings terrible moments.

However, I believe it’s time we stop referring to Ellison as a bust.  He was a very talented basketball player and a good pick by the Kings.  He had no injury history in college that we overlooked.  He simply had a tragic ending to his career as injuries derailed what was a very promising, young player.  Even if he never improved after age 24, his numbers were good enough to put him in the middle of the pack of other #1 picks.  And he compares favorably to respected NBA players who no one would ever label as busts. 

Ricky Berry and Bobby Hurley made terrible decisions and we remember their careers wistfully - lamenting what could have been.  Mention Ellison’s name and people will shake their head with disgust.  I think Ellison deserves the same respect as the other players.  He is still another Kings' tragedy.  However, it’s time we stop remembering him as a bust, an awful player or a scourge on our franchise.  It’s time we remember him as another potential Kings’ all star whose career was ruined by bad fortune out of his control.

So cheers Pervis.  To what could have been. 

There have been a lot of complaints on the board recently regarding the Martin-Landry trade.  Really, there are two components to these complaints:

1 – Martin is a far superior player to Landry

2 – Landry is a UFA and could leave after the season

I can do little to address #2 as that will just depend on what trades and signings Petrie can make.  We won’t have a clear answer until the end of summer if not even later.

However, I can address part 1, because as soon as you start taking a more intricate look at the numbers it becomes apparent that Martin and Landry are virtually the same player. 

Take a look at this graph showing Martin’s and Landry’s stats in Houston and Sacramento the last two seasons.  Since both teams have had very similar personnel the last two years, the team structures allow for a relatively accurate comparison.

As you can see in Houston’s offense both players shot identically.  Martin used a few more possessions and Landry created a few more shots for himself.  Overall, Martin was slightly more efficient offensively going by PER, but Landry was probably a slightly better defender.  The extra possessions used by Martin also explain why his raw numbers in Houston look gaudier than Landry’s.

In Sacramento, the shooting percentages and PER are very close again.  The primary difference was Martin burned more possessions, while Landry had to create a lot more shots for himself (or has failed to finish shots set up by others depending upon your perspective).

Of the two though, the Houston comparison strikes me as more pure and telling.  KMart was hurt in Sacramento and the team dynamic completely changed on him from past years.  This year, the rotations coupled with Reke’s injury made our team a disaster early on.  As our team has been improving, Landry’s numbers are starting to get closer to his Houston numbers. 

“But wait, Kevin’s nearly an All Star and Landry is just a great bench player”

Personally, I think both players are suited to a 6th man role for good teams.  They both would provide a great scoring spark off of the bench.  However, reasonable people will disagree with me and argue that Kevin can be so much more than that.  He’s a star.

Really?  He’s a great scorer.  Landry’s equal to be sure.  But let’s take a look at his other numbers:

[Note: N/A stats are not available due to issues with sorting in Hoopsdata. The Usage statistic is only available in their Advanced Statistics tab, so I could not bring up the same sample of players for more standard statistics.  No data was purposely omitted to make this argument.]

Passing

For a shooting guard, Martin is a horrific passer.  Kevin Martin is an anomaly as a basketball player both in good ways (3s and FTs), but also how many possessions he uses without helping any of his teammates.

Kevin Martin’s Assist rate is 10.07, meaning about 10% of his possessions end in an assist.  To put that in perspective, out of the 32 SGs who have played at least 25 minutes/game this year, KMart ranks 28th.  The only ones below him are Anthony Morrow, Jason Richardson, Brandon Rush and Nick “what’s a pass” Young.

The again, some shooting guards are used differently than others.  So perhaps you think this is a fluke or its just me manipulating the statistics.  After all, maybe he gets so few assists because he uses so many possessions to score.  So instead, let’s take a look at the Top 40 players with the highest usage rates.

Of the Top 40 players, Martin is 30th in assist rate.  He’s the 11th worst on the list, with most of the player below him being PFs and Cs (Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez, Amare Stoudemire) or noted ball hogs (Michael Beasley, Andray Blatche).  In fact, he was dead last out of all guards on the list.

And it’s not even like Martin is careful with his passes, his A/T ratio is the 28th for our SG sample and 35th out of our high usage players.

Rebounding

Martin rebounds about as well as he passes, grabbing about 5.6% of all available rebounds. 

Without context that might not mean much, so looking at the same data sets as before, Marin was the 20th worst rebounder out of all SGs. 

If you look at our high usage sample set he ranks 36th out of 40.  This isn’t completely fair since that lists does include SFs, PFs and Cs who should beat him.  However, it gives some context to the fact that while KMart was better than 10 of these players in Assist Rate, all 10 crushed him in Redound Rate.  100%.  There is not one high usage player who Kevin beat in both Assist and Rebound rate.  However, there were plenty who beat him in both (18 to be exact).

Defense

Sadly, there are not many good defensive statistics to measure a player’s performance.  Looking at defensive rating/on-off statistics, the Rockets defense is a point worse with Martin on the floor.  But there are so many team specific variables there, it is really hard to draw any conclusions not specific to the Rockets.  Even if you are anti-KMart, this statistic doesn’t tell you he’s a bad defender, maybe his backup is just a very good defender. 

So we are left with his abysmal steal and block numbers (21 and 23 out of SGs) and our eyes.  All Kings fans complained about KMart’s terrible D when he was here.  Reading the message boards over at Clutch Fans and you’ll find the complaints remain. 

So ultimately, we have a player who is deficient in every major basketball function other than scoring.  This doesn’t render Martin useless.  His scoring prowess is so efficient that he would make a great fit in the right situation, much like Carl Landry.

For a comparison, here are Landry’s ranks:

I won’t go over Landy’s ranks in as much detail, as they are pretty much what most Kings fans would have guessed.  The only thing I will note is that among PFs he ranks almost identically to how Martin ranked among shooting guards.  Again, they are largely the same player – very efficient scorer, bad at everything else.

“You’re missing the point, Marin is a winner, look at the Rockets record and ours”

I think most people agree that the others players on the roster, experience and coaching also factor into team record.  So let’s take a look at both team’s records last year with Martin and Landry.

As you can see, both teams were actually better with Landry than Martin last year.  In both cases it was pretty incremental, so I’m not using this as evidence that Landry is the better player; however, it also puts Martin’s impact into perspective. 

When you factor in that the Rocket’s are 19-23 with Martin this year (45.23 winning %), you could draw the conclusion that he has had either no impact or a negative overall impact on his teams. 

If I had to guess why that is, I would hypothesize it is because even though he is a very efficient scorer, he is a bit of a one-dimensional player who shoots constantly and doesn’t make his teammates better.  Furthermore, when you look at his porous defense and poor rebounding, you can see that he actually is a negative to his team outside of his ability to create points for himself. 

When you sub another player in for Martin, you can reap benefits in all of the areas Martin is weak in while allowing others to pick up some of the offensive slack. 

Without Martin, the Rockets were able to give more minutes to Trevor Ariza and Kyle Lowry.  With Ariza you got tough defense and good rebounding, while Brooks and Landry were able to increase their scoring.  With Lowry you increased your defense and ball movement.

When Martin left the Kings, Udrih made up 75% of Martin’s offense while using his passing to create higher offensive efficiency for the other Kings.

“No, the Kings should have gotten more for Martin.  All the other teams do”

Ok, for the sake of argument, let’s look at players traded in the last few years making 10+ million who were perceived as someone who could be the 3rd or 4th best option on a good team:

Caron Butler - expirings

Jason Richardson – Vince Carter, not sure if the Suns wanted the player or expiring contract

Vince Carter – Courtney Lee and expirings

Gilbert Arenas – Rashard Lewis

Mike Bibby - expirings

Al Jefferson – 2 first round picks & Koufos

Marcus Camby – twice – once for a 2nd round pick and once for expiring contracts

Antwan Jamison – expirings and a 1st round pick, though the Cavs had one of the best records, so when this deal was made it was guaranteed to be a pick in the 20s

Stephen Jackson - expirings

Emeka Okafor – Tyson Chandler

There’s no place to sorts for these types of trades, so if anyone knows others I am happy to list them.  However, this list is underwhelming at best.  In the modern NBA, no one gives more than cap relief and maybe a late first round pick for an expensive player who is going to take up 20% of their cap without being one of their top 2 players. 

The Point

While it remains to be seen what Petrie will be able to receive for Landry and what he will do with the 11.5 million and 12.5 million in salary now available to the Kings the next two years, this deal was basically a wash.  Having acquired Cousins and Dalembert in the offseason, you can argue this year’s Kings would be better off with a one dimensional shooter instead of a one dimensional inside scorer.  However, talent for talent this deal appears to be very even with any statistics.  And considering how acrimonious the relationship between Martin and the Kings was becoming, it was a deal that needed to be made. 

I know this year has been frustrating so far.  However, pining for a player who a number of fans bashed while he is on the team isn’t constructive.  I think Martin is a good player and I wish him nothing but the best; however, the Kings did not get ripped off in this trade, they not only got a fairly equal player, but they received what was market value for a player of Martin’s talent and contract size.

It’s time to move on.