There was more than enough interest for a league! Based on responses to the last post, it looks like we have 18 interested as of now:

SRB
Tepo6688
bcschles
Michael M
Mr Leam
ecocd
Cheeseandcorn
masondlo
Rendezvous
Saltire
NoahJ
Brewer 1 Fan
brewcrewshrew
Mr. McGehee
Jordan M
TwoShoesMcGoze
-JP-
Hyatt

The next step is to try and schedule the draft, which is important as it's pretty much the entire point of the league. I was thinking a weekend (Saturday or Sunday) in the early afternoon CST, to accommodate those of us who are overseas. The season is also fast approaching, so maybe within the next 1-3 week(end)s? Since the draft may take a while with 18 teams, I think it might also be a good idea to break the draft into two parts (i.e. Rounds 1-12, Rounds 13-25, or something like that).

Please let me know your availability, especially if you are not going to be available at a certain time/date.

Since there seemed to be some interest in doing a Brew Crew Ball "fantasy" league based around advanced stats, e.g. fWAR or rWAR or whatever, I decided to make a post to discuss a possible league. My original idea was to do a league that was aimed at being more "realistic" than traditional fantasy leagues; that is, if you were drafting an actual MLB 25-man roster for the 2012 season, who would you take, factoring in defense, offense, durability, etc. So in other words, basically what WAR attempts to measure (overall player value).

Carlos Gomez is actually sort-of a viable fantasy option!!! (via usatoday.net)

As a result of the difficulty in continually updating a league based on advanced stats, and since myself and probably others really like drafting fantasy teams but can lose interest in continually entering lineups as the season drags on, I think the league should be KittenMittons-friendly. That is, a main draft, maybe monthly updated standings, and then final standings to determine a winner, but no lineups, daily/weekly changes, trades, or add/drops. If a player gets hurt, he's replaced by someone from an exactly replacement-level farm system (0.0 WAR) just like would theoretically happen in real life. That also makes it easier to calculate team standings.

My initial idea, in the vein of being "realistic," was also to do 25-man rosters with roughly the same positions as a real team: C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF-C-IF-IF-OF-OF SP-SP-SP-SP-SP-(SP)-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP. That would end up giving the team's total WAR more than a real team would have, since people would presumably be drafting starters for their bench spots and thus giving the team an impossible amount of playing time, but it would be fairly close.

However! Everyone should propose whatever rules they think would be best. Cheeseandcorn proposed a scoring system more like traditional roto/category leagues that would break up WAR into it's component parts and score based on that. tcyoung had an interesting idea to draft by team-position, for example "Brewers CF" rather than Nyjer Morgan, but I think Fangraphs changed (?) such that it no longer seems possible to accurately filter fWAR by team-position, so that idea may not be feasible.

If anyone is either 1) interested in doing this league (you only need to commit for the draft, so feel free to show up on draft day, draft a team, and then zone out until final standings are announced at the end of the year!), or 2) would like to propose rules, please comment below!

Interested Parties:
SRB
Tepo6688
bcschles
Michael M
Mr Leam
ecocd
Cheeseandcorn
masondlo
Rendezvous
Saltire
NoahJ
Brewer 1 Fan
brewcrewshrew
Mr. McGehee
Jordan M
TwoShoesMcGoze
-JP-
Hyatt

Q: Is it true that NPB position players coming to MLB have all been busts other than Ichiro?

Continue reading this post »

While I have seen the Brewers predicatively linked to 1B free agents like Carlos Pena, and while I don't necessarily have loads of confidence in Mat Gamel myself, I think the two clearly more pressing needs for 2012 are SS and 3B.  The Brewers will definitely have to sign or trade for a starting SS in the next few weeks, and the tandem of Casey McGehee and Taylor Green is just not very good (or at least, probably has much less upside than Gamel at 1B and thus is a more clear route for improving the 2012 team).  

The Brewers have been linked to Jerry Hairston Jr. and may have already offered him a one-year deal, but I still don't see them using him as more than a super-utility guy again.  Given McGehee's epic collapse and the fact that he was finally benched in the offseason, I could see Melvin pursuing outside help at both SS and 3B.  Below are the obvious options at both positions, with salary predictions that I have either seen elsewhere on the internet or reasonable guesses based on 2011 salary/performance, and with an extremely crude "projection" of 2012 fWAR based on 60% 2011 fWAR/625 PA + 30% 2010 fWAR/625 PA + 10% 2009 fWAR/625 PA:

Note: I am fully aboard the Nakajima-Train and want Melvin to pursue the Japanese star SS that was recently-posted, Hiroyuki Nakajima, but I'm not sure that's realistic enough to consider, sadly.

Assuming that the Brewers will not pay McGehee $3.1 million (est. arbitration salary) to be a bench 3B/1B and will either trade or non-tender him if he's not starting, I calculated a Brewers payroll at about $82 million without a starting SS or 3B.  That includes $3 million for JHJ or a similar player to play a super-utility role off the bench, and $2.5 million for a reliever (maybe bringing back Saito or Hawkins).  Since the payroll will probably be relatively high after the team's success and continued "win-now" mode, I think a total payroll of $95-96 million or so is possible.  That leaves around $13-14 million to fill SS and 3B.  Possible combinations using that money:

JOSE REYES: Reyes would not fit into the payroll unless the team shed some salary, most likely Randy Wolf.  The Brewers might be able to find a team willing to take on Wolf's $9.5 million but probably would not get a major league piece in return.  It would also mean the Brewers would have to non-tender McGehee and go with Green at 3B, since there would be no room for another 3B salary.  Thus:

Reyes (5.2 fWAR, $20 mil.) + Green (1.0 fWAR, $0.4 mil.) - Wolf (1.5 fWAR, $9.5 mil.) + Estrada? (0.5 fWAR, $0.4 mil.) = 5.2 fWAR + $2 million to spend

JIMMY ROLLINS:

Rollins (3.7 fWAR, $14 mil.) + Green (1.0 fWAR, $0.4 mil.) = 4.7 fWAR

RAFAEL FURCAL: If Furcal really costs $10 million/year, as I've seen predicted, it would leave just enough room for McGehee/Betemit/Kouzmanoff; since their projected performance is similar also, the team would most likely just stick with McGehee, giving:

Furcal (2.7 fWAR, $10 mil.) + McGehee (1.4 fWAR, $3.1 mil.) = 4.1 fWAR

ALEX GONZALEZ: Gonzalez should be cheap enough that the Brewers could add a 3B free agent not named Aramis Ramirez.  I haven't heard is name mentioned much at all, but Casey Blake looks like the clear target to me.  He is getting up there in age, so playing a full season may be a problem, but the team will still have at the least Green and hopefully JHJ to cover some starts as well.  Blake's production has actually been better than A-Ram over the past three seasons, and the $6 million estimated price tag might be high:

Gonzalez (1.8 fWAR, $7 mil.) + Blake (3.3 fWAR, $6 mil.) = 5.1 fWAR

RONNY CEDENO: Cedeno's "projected" performance isn't much worse than Gonzalez, but he figures to be much cheaper, making him a more attractive target perhaps, though with less upside.  Cedeno should be cheap enough that the Brewers could add a free agent 3B, most likely including Aramis Ramirez.  Assuming Blake can't handle an entire season anymore that might maximize the team's production better, but I kind of feel like A-Ram will be overpriced:

Cedeno (1.5 fWAR, $3 mil.) + Ramirez (2.7 fWAR, $11 mil.) = 4.3 fWAR

Cedeno (1.5 fWAR, $3 mil.) + Blake (3.3 fWAR, $6 mil.) = 4.8 fWAR + $4 million to spend

CESAR IZTURIS/YUNIESKY BETANCOURT/ORLANDO CABRERA:

Noooooooooooo!!!!!!!

EDGAR RENTERIA: The numbers are still fairly kind to Renteria, which was surprising to me because I was under the impression that he was totally finished.  And maybe he is; he's definitely not capable of playing a full season anymore, but once again JHJ or another utility player could split time here.

Renteria (2.0 fWAR, $2.5 mil.) + Blake (3.3 fWAR, $6 mil.) = 5.3 fWAR + $4.5 million to spend

What's interesting about this?  These are very crude numbers obviously, but factoring in full seasons from Renteria and Blake, that tandem could very well be more valuable to the Brewers than unloading Wolf in order to get Reyes.  Renteria is not going to accumulate 625 PA though, so that 2.0 fWAR is is slightly misleading; then again, if he splits time with JHJ I don't think 2.0+ fWAR is out of the question.  If the Brewers went with Renteria/Hairston/Blake or Cedeno/Blake, they would even be left with enough money to upgrade the bullpen or, my preference, sign a second undervalued super-utility guy like Nick Punto to cover SS/3B.  They could also spend that money on a backup to Gamel at 1B.

However, my ultimate preference would be Alex Gonzalez and Casey Blake.  Based on the charts above, Cedeno looks like much better value than Gonzalez, but Cedeno is also riskier and with worse upside.  Assuming full seasons from each of Gonzalez/Blake and using the extremely crude "projections" from above, that tandem would be roughly equivalent to Reyes/Green (note: this all assume that Green is only a 1.0 fWAR player, but I'm not sure that's overly pessimistic...).  If you go by their best season from the previous three, Gonzalez (3.4 fWAR) + Blake (4.9 fWAR) = 7.3 fWAR "peak" value, which is likely similar to the "peak" of Reyes (6.2 fWAR) + Green (1.1+ fWAR).

Sorry, there are no prizes, but let's have a contest anyways!  What do you think the Brewers roster will look like on Opening Day 2012?  For the purposes of this, by opening day roster I mean the starting lineup on April 6 vs. St. Louis, plus the starting rotation.  i.e.: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, SP, SP, SP, SP, SP.  No need to explain any predicted trades, signings, etc.  Just list what you think the lineup/roster will look like.  Although you can explain them if you'd like!

The winner will be the person who has the most correct (out of a possible 13/13).  Please also list your prediction for the Brewers opening day payroll (according to USA Today).  The tiebreaker will be who gets this to the closest dollar.  If you do not get LF right, you will be disqualified and banished.

In the hope that if enough Fanposts begging for an upgrade to Yuniesky Betancourt are posted on Brew Crew Ball, Doug Melvin will be forced to take notice (seeing as he is a confirmed commenter here under the alias BUCKS), here is another one.  Jeff Keppinger was just traded to the Giants, but he isn't very good anyways and there are a number of impending free agents who have played shortstop in the major leagues this season and who are on non-contending teams (10+ games back).  I've compiled a Google Spreadsheet listing every single player on a non-contending team who has played shortstop this season and their estimated availability in a trade (plus stats):

LINK

Obviously, some of those players are definitely off limits or most likely off limits (indicated in the spreadsheet), but there are still quite a few names that are probable upgrades over Yuniesky, including some interesting names that I haven't seen heavily discussed in trade rumors but who I think make sense as trade targets for the Brewers.

Cesar Izturis, Alfredo Amezega, Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, Jack Wilson, John McDonald, and Alex Cora are all set to be free agents after this season, according to the contract info on Cots, and most of those players (with the possible exception of Amezega, McDonald and Cora) are "starting-caliber" players who the organization might feel comfortable giving the Brewers starting SS job too.  Unfortunately, Reyes might not even be traded and if he is, it almost certainly won't be to Milwaukee.  Also note that Yuniesky's actual/projected stats are basically worse than every single other player listed.  Even the horrible, crappy ones.

Jamey Carroll has been popularly linked to the Brewers, and while I would welcome an upgrade to Betancourt, I'm not sure a 37-year-old with limited past success is the ideal target.  Personally, the players that interest me the most are Clint Barmes from the Astros, Mike Aviles from the Royals, Jason Bartlett from the Padres, and Jack Wilson from the Mariners. 

All four of those players are on teams that are well out of the race and should look to be selling (it looks like Houston has already started liquidating their roster), all four are definite upgrades over Betancourt, and all four have been regular starters in the past. 

I would be most interested in Mike Aviles, who according to ZiPS Rest of Season projections and past defensive performance looks like the most appealing candidate of the bunch, and who seemingly has no role in Kansas City anymore with Alcides Escobar at SS, Mike Moustakas at 3B, and another elite prospect in Christian Colon (SS/2B) coming up through the minors.  He's under team control for three more years, so Kansas City may not have a huge incentive to trade him, but he's playing back in the minors right now and would be a very useful piece for the Brewers and worth giving up what it might take to get him, within reason.

Jason Bartlett is an intriguing target as well.  His contract runs through 2012 with a 2013 option, but the Padres could easily trade him for some slight payroll relief and instead return to Everth Cabrera, who was their primary starting shortstop in '09, struggled in limited playing time in '10, but who is still very young and has decent potential.  Bartlett would solve the problem of who will be the Brewers starting shortstop in 2012, and he might have as much upside as anyone on the above list other than Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.  In 2009 he hit .320/.389/.490 for the Rays before hitting a wall in 2010, but a return to a non-Petco park in Milwaukee would surely help his offensive numbers trend  back toward his .323 career wOBA. 

If I were Doug Melvin, I would be diligently pursuing these players.  What say you, Brew Crew Ball?!

We're roughly five days away from the first day of the June Draft, so I thought some people might be interested in doing a predictions contest just for fun.  The Brewers pick at #12 and #15 in the first round, so for the contest I think it makes sense to have every entrant post their predictions through pick #15 in the comments blow.

Scoring: +2 points for every correct pick and +5 points for a correct Brewers pick.  A perfect "bracket" would be 36 points, and order matters (e.g. if you predict that the Brewers will pick Taylor Guerrieri at #12 and they nab him at #15, it's still 0 points).   Those values are just off the top of my head, so I can tweak the scoring if people would think something else would be better/more balanced.

Winner: The winner will be determined by the highest total score, with any ties broken by: 1) number of Brewers picks correct (2 > 1 > 0) and, 2) the longest consecutive string of correct picks (15 > 14 > 13 > ...) at any point in your "bracket."  The winner will receive the tremendous prize(s) of: 1) the overwhelming awe of the BCB community and, 2) the title and a permanent place in history as the Brew Crew Ball Grand Champion Draft Expert of the 2011 MLB June Draft.  Of course, all of your secret inside sources may remain anonymous. 

Deadline: Things generally become more definite by the day before or the day of the draft, so I was thinking that the deadline for entries be set as Saturday, June 4, at midnight CST.  This can be tweaked as well if people want something else.

Reminder of the draft order:

1) Pittsburgh Pirates

2) Seattle Mariners

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

4) Baltimore Orioles

5) Kansas City Royals

6) Washington Nationals

7) Arizona Diamondbacks

8) Cleveland Indians

9) Chicago Cubs

10) San Diego Padres

11) Houston Astros

12) Milwaukee Brewers

13) New York Mets

14) Florida Marlins

15) Milwaukee Brewers

I think most people who frequent Brew Crew Ball are familiar with the stat BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is usually taken as a measure of how "lucky" or "unlucky" a hitter has been depending on the difference between his BABIP and the baseline of .300.  However, some batters are able to consistently maintain high or low BABIPs, leading one to believe that the simple formula for BABIP doesn't always tell the whole story.  As a result, two writers at the Hardball Times came up with a metric called xBABIP (expected BABIP) a few years ago that uses a number of advanced factors to give a better estimate of what we should expect a hitter's BABIP to be (i.e. not necessarily .300) [link]. 

These stats can be useful in examining Yuniesky Betancourt as his extremely low BABIPs over the last two or three seasons (.256 and .267 in the previous two) - seasons which helped lead to a lot of hyperbole about Betancourt being the "worst player in baseball" -  suggest something weird may have been going on.  Did Betancourt suddenly start doing something different that made his offensive production plummet in 2009 (and continue to be depressed by a low BABIP in 2010)?  I decided to take a quick look at xBABIP and Betancourt's batted ball data to see what was going on:

Continue reading this post »

The biggest question mark entering the 2011 season is probably the shortstop situation following the departure of Alcides Escobar.  There has been some pretty apocalyptic commentary on Yuniesky Betancourt, but I think there's some compelling reasons to think things might not be that bad.  I decided to use available 2011 projections for the three SS options on the team - Yuniesky Betancourt, Craig Counsell and Luis Cruz - to estimate the WAR production from various platoons.

I like the ZiPS forecasting system, but for these first estimates I'm using the CAIRO system instead for two reasons: 1) CAIRO gives platoon split projections, which ZiPS doesn't, and 2) CAIRO seems to give the most pessimistic outlook regarding the offense of Betancourt/Counsell/Cruz, so there's room for a lot of upside in these platoon projections.  First, here's the wOBA splits projected by CAIRO (along with the players' ZiPS/career numbers and career UZR/150):

CAIRO projects below-career performance for both Betancourt and Counsell, and for whatever reason it's particularly low on Betancourt.  I think that's fair for Counsell given his age, but Betancourt put up a .300 wOBA last season with an extremely low BABIP, so the .292 wOBA might be a little unfair.  For these estimates I'm using Betancourt's career -8.3 UZR/150 (I think that's fair), for Counsell I'm droping his career +7.0 to  +5.0 (dropping it any further seems unfair, but I know some people disagree), and for Cruz I'm estimating it at +7.0 based on his very good minor league TotalZone numbers and reputation as a defender.  

Now, some caveats about the method I used: 1) I assumed 4 PA/GS, since the average for the #7 spot in the Brewers batting order was a little over 4.1 last season, but the #7 hitting starter is sometimes pinch-hit for, 2) wRAA, the batting component of fWAR, uses the league average wOBA, which I estimate at .325 (it was .321 last season), 3) these estimates don't include the park adjustments or other minor things used at Fangraphs and in fWAR, 4) I assumed 1 game started (GS) equals 1 defensive game (DG), which isn't the case in reality.   

Continue reading this post »

We all know Zack Greinke is ridiculously good, and given the Brewers' payroll restrictions is probably the best pitcher the team has a possibility of pursuing.  As with any trade rumor on the internet, I have also seen some pretty outlandish proposals for what it would take to get Greinke (not from Brewers fans in particular) in both directions.  Luckily, there have been at least six roughly comparable trades involving ace pitchers or Cy Young winners in the past few years.  I decided to take a look into what was involved in those trades, and figured others might be interested in what I found (no analysis here really, I'm just listing what other people had said about the prospects involved at the time):

Zack Greinke, 2011?

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 1108.0 IP, 169 GS, 3.82 ERA, 116 ERA+, 7.6 K/9, 1 Cy Young
Previous two years: 449.1 IP, 66 GS, 3.14 ERA, 137 ERA+, 8.5 K/9

Erik Bedard, 2008

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 658.0 IP, 111 GS, 3.83 ERA, 119 ERA+, 8.7 K/9
Previous two years: 378.1 IP, 61 GS, 3.47 ERA, 132 ERA+, 9.3 K/9

On February 8, the Orioles traded their ace starter to the Mariners for a package of five players.  Bedard was coming off the best season of his career and a fifth place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.  Bedard's career and previous two years stats were also remarkable close to Greinke's, as were their contract statuses (2 years remaining for both).  Seattle gave up the following package of players:

Adam Jones - CF
Pre-2006, BA #64; Pre-2007, BA #28
John Sickels: B+, SEA #1 (December 28, 2007)
MLB: 147 PA, 139 AB, .230/.267/.353/.620

George Sherrill - RP
MLB: 128.1 IP, 0 GS, 1.208 WHIP, 122 ERA+

Tony Butler - SP (Butler is in the Brewers system now, interestingly enough)
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B-, SEA #6 (December 28, 2007)
85.1 IP, A (18 GS), 4.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9

Chris Tillman - SP
Pre-2008, BA #67 (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B+, SEA #4 (December 28, 2007)
102.2 IP, A+

Kam Mickolio - RP
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: C (December 28, 2007)
24.0 IP, AAA (0 GS), 3.75 ERA, 10.5 K/9

The Mariners gave up a package that included a B+ centerfielder who had struggled briefly but was still the centerpiece of the trade (Jones), a B+ starter in the lower levels of the system (Tillman), a B- starter and C reliever who were sort of the throw-ins of the trade (Butler and Mickolio), and a solid MLB reliever (Sherrill).  It seems like at the time the trade was generally considered an overpay by Seattle, at least based on the internet reaction.

Johan Santana, 2008

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 1308.2 IP, 175 GS, 3.22 ERA, 141 ERA+, 9.5 K/9, 2 Cy Youngs
Previous two years: 452.2 IP, 67 GS, 3.04 ERA, 144 ERA+, 9.5 K/9

On February 1, 2008, the Mets and Twins finalized a trade that sent Santana to New York in exchange for four prospects.  Santana had just one year of team control remaining, but it's important to note that the trade was largely contingent on Santana signing a six-year extension with New York (which he did on February 1).  The players involved were:

Carlos Gomez - CF
Pre-2007, BA #60
Pre-2008, BA #52 (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B, NYM #3 (November 25, 2007)
MLB: 139 PA, 125 AB, .232/.288/.304/.592

Deolis Guerra - SP
Pre-2008, BA #35 (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B+, NYM #2 (November 25, 2007)
89.2 IP, A+ (20 GS)

Kevin Mulvey - SP
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B, NYM #4 (November 25, 2007)
151.2 IP, AA (26 GS), 3.32 ERA, 6.5 K/9

Phillip Humber - SP
Pre-2005, BA #50; Pre-2006, Unranked; Pre-2007, BA #73
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B-, NYM #7 (November 25, 2007)
139.0 IP, AAA (25 GS), 4.27 ERA, 7.8 K/9

As funny as it may sound now, Gomez was basically the centerpiece of a trade for the undisputed best pitcher in baseball at the time.  Can somebody trick Dayton Moore into thinking it's 2008?  Along with Gomez, who Sickels graded as a B centerfield prospect, were a B+ starter, a B starter, and a B- starter with a stock on the decline.

Roy Halladay, 2010

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 2046.2 IP, 287 GS, 3.43 ERA, 134 ERA+, 6.6 K/9, 1 Cy Young
Previous two years: 485.0 IP, 65 GS, 2.78 ERA, 155 ERA+, 7.7 K/9

On December 19, 2009, Toronto sent Halladay to Philadelphia for three prospects.  Halladay only had a year remaining on his contract, but it seems like Philadelphia wouldn't have made this trade if they hadn't been extremely confident of an extension (which Halladay signed soon after).  The players traded:

Kyle Drabek - SP
Pre-2010, BA #25 (February 3, 2010)
John Sickels: B+ (December 23, 2009)
96.1 IP, AA (14 GS)

Travis d'Arnaud - C
Pre-2010, BA #81 (February 3, 2010)
John Sickels: C (December 23, 2009)
540 PA, A (.738 OPS)

Michael Taylor - OF
Pre-2010, BA #29 (February 3, 2010)
John Sickles: B+ (December 28, 2009)
128 PA, AAA (.850 OPS)

Drabek and Taylor were both solid prospects, graded B+ by Sickels, and d'Arnaud was ranked alright by Baseball America as well.  Between the track record of Halladay and Philadelphia's confidence in an extension, this might be the least comparable situation listed to any Greinke trade. 

Cliff Lee, three trades (mid-2009, 2010, mid-2010)

C. LEE + B. FRANCISCO TO PHILLIES – 1.5 Seasons – (July 29, 2009)
Ben Francisco – OF (to PHILADELPHIA)
MLB: 1024 PA, 914 AB, .263/.330/.446/.776 (inc. 104 PA w/ Philadelphia)

Carlos Carrasco - SP
Pre-2007, BA #41; Pre-2008, BA #54, Pre-2009, BA #52
Midseason 2009, Unranked (>50) (July 9, 2009)
John Sickels: B, PHI #1 (October 28, 2008)
114.2 IP, AAA (20 GS), 5.18 ERA, 8.8 K/9

Jason Donald – SS
Pre-2009, BA #69
Midseason 2009, Unranked (>50) (July 9, 2009)
John Sickels: B-, PHI #4 (October 28, 2008)
230 PA, AAA (.629 OPS)

Lou Marson – C
Pre-2009, BA #66
Midseason 2009, Unranked (>50) (July 9, 2009)
John Sickels: C+, PHI #10 (October 28, 2008)
241 PA, AAA (.751 OPS)

Jason Knapp – SP
Midseason 2009, BA #25-50 (July 29, 2009)
John Sickels: B-, PHI #8
85.1 IP, A (17 GS), 4.01 ERA, 11.7 K/9

C. LEE TO SEATTLE MARINERS – 1 Season – (Dec. 15, 2009)
J.C. Ramirez – SP
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: B- (December 18, 2009)
142.1 IP, A+ (27 GS), 5.12 ERA, 7.0 K/9

Phillippe Aumont – P
Pre-2008, BA #83; Pre-2009, BA #93
Pre-2010, BA #93 (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: B- (December 18, 2009)
17.2 IP, AA (0 GS), 5.09 ERA, 12.1 K/9

Tyson Gillies – CF
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: C+ (December 18, 2009)
242 PA, A- (.866 OPS)

C. LEE + M. LOWE TO TEXAS RANGERS – 0.5 Seasons – (July 9, 2010)
Mark Lowe – RP (to TEXAS)
MLB: 178.1 IP, 0 GS, 1.469 WHIP, 105 ERA+

Justin Smoak – 1B
Pre-2009, BA #23
Pre-2010, BA #13 (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: A-, TEX #2 (January 6, 2010)
MLB: 275 PA, 235 AB, .209/.316/.353/.670
 
Blake Beavan – SP
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: C+, TEX #16 (January 6, 2010)
110.0 IP, AA (17 GS), 2.78 ERA, 5.6 K/9

Josh Lueke - RP
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: No Grade (January 6, 2010)
18.2 IP, AA (0 GS), 3.86 ERA, 12.5 K/9

Matt Lawson – 2B
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: No Grade (January 6, 2010)
345 PA, AA (.809 OPS)

I think Lee and Bedard are the two most comparable pitchers to Greinke on this list since, like Greinke, both lack the long-term track record and consistency of Santana or Halladay.  Lee was traded twice in the offseason, and it's probably useful to note that his value may have been higher then than it would have been in the prior offseason, as teams in contention (like Texas or the Phillies) will usually pay more to go all in.  Both teams got to the World Series, so if they overpaid I guess they were right in doing so.

Summary

Some people argue that Greinke is especially valuable this offseason because of the lack of ace pitching past Lee, but I think that's slightly ridiculous.  There are rarely multiple ace pitchers on the free market (if there are any) and teams are always interested in pitchers like Greinke.  Given the above precedents, I think some people might be overvaluing what it would or should take to get him.  Greinke reportedly wants out of Kansas City, and the Royals know they have to trade him, so they don't have the greatest leverage even with two years left on his contract.

John Sickels' top 20 Brewers prospects for 2011 isn't out yet, but I would guess that Odorizzi is probably a B+ starter now.  Given the above trades and their degree of comparability to Greinke, I would offer something along the lines of: Jake Odorizzi (B+ SP), Manny Parra (MLB SP) since he really deserves a chance to start somewhere, someone like Kyle Heckathorn (B/B- SP), and since Kansas City reportedly wants middle infield prospects, maybe Eric Farris (B-/C+ 2B) since he would be more expendable if a Weeks extension is in the works.  Anybody on the internet expecting Toronto to give up Drabek (an A- SP) and a number of other top prospects is dreaming, unless Greinke agrees to the parameters of an extension beforehand (unlikely).

I would really hate to give up Odorizzi, but Greinke would make the Brewers strong contenders in 2011, and if things don't work out the Brewers could flip him in mid-2011 or 2012 if an extension is impossible.

Long post, sorry.  What does everyone else think?

I Wish by Doug Melvin

Hey, this is radio station W-D-O-U-G
We're takin' calls on the wish line
Making your wacky wishes come true

Hello?

I wish my pitchers were a little bit taller
I wish I had a baller
I wish I had a pitcher who threw hard
Just throw harder
I wish I had a pitcher in a hat with a bat
And a 9-4 mph slider

I wish they were like six-foot-nine
So I could get back at Jack Z
'Cause he don't work for me but yo his staff's really fine
You know I see them all the time
Everywhere I go, and even in my dreams
I can scheme of ways to make Cliff Lee mine
'Cause I know Lee's pitching's phat
His GM's rich and he can buy them all
So how am I gonna compete with that?

'Cause when it comes to play-off baseball
My team's always last to be picked
And in some cases never picked at all
So I just lean upon the wall
Or sit up in the bleachers with the rest of the fans
Who come to watch their teams in the Fall

Doug, y'all! I never understood
Why big markets get the fly pitchers
And me I get the Suppans
I tell 'em "scat, skittle, skibobble"
Got hit with a bottle
And put in the hospital, for signin' that mess

I confess it's a shame when you livin' in a city
That's the size of a box and nobody watches yo' games
Glad I came to my senses
Like quick-quick got sick-sick to my stomach
Overcome with my thoughts of me and Lee together, right?
So when I asked him to sign he said the Brewers weren't his type

I wish my pitchers were a little bit taller
I wish I had a baller
I wish I had a pitcher who threw hard
Just throw harder
I wish I had a pitcher in a hat with a bat
And a 9-4 mph slider

I wish I had a brand-new ace
So far, I got Gallardo
But everywhere he goes, Yo gets laughed at
'Cause he's the only Brewer that can throw
I got a 4-year deal with Wolf and he throws a curve
But that's flat

And do you wanna know what's really whack?
See I have to make a trade
So, what you think of that?
I heard that "Lawrie can hit bombs all night
He's a prospect you should hold onto tight"
But really tho', on Toronto
There's some pitching makes me call and say hello

Well so many people wanna just wait for "one day"
But now it's only one year before Prince has to go
And how else can I get a pitcher that's elite?
Get off the phone and hear pitching's not cheap
'Cause it's hard to compete
When you're livin' in a real small market and
These free agents keep passin' me by
But Marcum's fly, his ERA's not high
Makes me say my, my, my

I wish my pitchers were a little bit taller
I wish I had a baller
I wish I had a pitcher who threw hard
Just throw harder
I wish I had a pitcher in a hat with a bat
And a 9-4 mph slider

Hey, just trust me and Mark A.
Take a look at what the stats say
Marcum's not tall but he finds a way
We just might win games
A rotation with solid names
Little Yovani, Marcum, Wolfay
Yo, he knows that's on the real
So if their FIP's aren't down on luck
Then you will come to love this deal
'Cause when Marcum takes the mound
You'll all see the pitcher I've found

Hey, you, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down
Ahhhh, yes, ain't that fresh?
Everybody wants to get a pitcher like that

I wish my pitchers were a little bit taller
I wish I had a baller
I wish I had a pitcher who threw hard
Just throw harder
I wish I had a pitcher in a hat with a bat
And a 9-4 mph slider

I wish, I wish, I wish...

One of the most common criticisms of the Brewers organization these days seems to be the notion that the Brewers are particularly incompetent at drafting and developing pitching.  This doesn't seem very far-fetched, given that the Brewers rotation is embarrassingly bad year after year (2008 excluded), but I decided to take a look at how the Brewers have done compared to the rest of the NL Central since 2004.  Ideally, I would compare them to all of MLB or the NL and over a longer period of time, but this is probably a decent enough sample to begin with. I also looked exclusively at starting pitching (and only a player's innings as a starter if he was both a starter and reliever in one season) since 1) it makes it way easier than looking at relievers too, 2) for the most part bullpens aren't as important as the rotation, and 3) almost every pitcher is drafted as a starter, so it makes sense to only consider starters when evaluating a team's draft/development success.

Defining a starter as any player who had at least three games started in any given season, there have been 351 unique player-seasons in the NL Central since 2004 (and including 2010 through August 6).  I compiled the number of games started, the starting runs above replacement (RAR), and the method by which the team acquired that player.  For the sake of simplicity, any player who was drafted and developed, signed as an international/amateur free agent and developed, or acquired more than a year before his major league debut was counted as a player drafted and/or developed by that team.  This is a pretty generous definition of "developed" for some teams, but it actually favors teams other than the Brewers in the final numbers I calculated.  For example, Adam Wainwright is basically the only valuable Cardinals pitcher that qualified as being "drafted and/or developed" by the Cardinals, even though he was a first-round pick by the Braves and spent his Rk/A+/AA seasons in the Braves system (he came to St. Louis as part of the J.D. Drew trade with Atlanta).  Any player that had major league experience, whether acquired through trade/free agency/etc., I counted as coming from outside the organization (the lone exception is Randy Wells, who was drafted by the Cubs and went through their minor league system, was given away in the Rule 5 draft to Toronto where he made his major league debut, but was eventually DFA'd and returned to Chicago).

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In a recent discussion with Tom Haudricourt, Scott Boras made comparisons between Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira, and implied that the former would be seeking a contract similar to Teixeira's 8-year/$180 million behemoth deal.  This immediately led TH and many Brewers fan to conclude that the Brewers have zero chance of keeping Fielder when he becomes a free agent in 2012.  But a quick glance at the actual 2012 market for 1B shows that Scott Boras is dreaming (or more likely, just trying to get as much as he can out of Fielder) when he says Fielder would get a deal like Teixeira's.

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Something to consider...

The biggest name at the trade deadline this season is most likely Cliff Lee, and since his contract is finished at the end of this season, he will probably be the biggest name in the free agent market this winter too.  Although some are treating it as a foregone conclusion that Lee will end up with the Yankees (yawn...), I don't see why that necessarily has to be the case.  In fact, I think the Brewers could be serious contenders for Lee if Doug and Mark A. were willing to make the effort.

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With Angel Salome’s major league potential falling increasingly into question, Lucroy has pretty much unanimously been declared the Brewers’ catcher of the future.  And, while I think Lucroy is awesome, do we potentially have a better catcher already on the team?  George Kottaras has been on a rampage this season, and I think it may be time to consider him as a potential starting catcher down the road:

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Prince Fielder connected for his first home run of the season today in what was his 54th at-bat of the season, ending yet another "home run drought" to start the season.  There's no reason to be concerned about Prince's slow start though.  Looking back at Prince's 4+ full seasons, the following trend emerges:

2006: Prince's first full season.  He wasn't exactly in a slump, as he was hitting .327 entering the game of his 54th AB, but he only had 1 HR.  He would hit his second in the game of his 54th AB.

2007: The year Prince hit 50 HR.  Coming into the game of his 54th AB, however, he was hitting .288 with only 1 HR.  Two games after the game of his 54th AB, he hit his second home run, and would his 48 more over the course of the season.

2008: Prince entered the game of his 54th AB hitting only .224 with 0 HR.  He hit a home run in his 54th AB (the exact same as today) and would finish the season with a .276 AVG and 33 more HR.

2009: Prince's best offensive season to date.  Entering the game of his 54th AB though, he was hitting a paltry .196 with only 1 HR.  In the game following the game of his 54th AB, he would hit 2 HR and finish the season with 43 more and on the cusp of batting .300. 

2010: Prince gets going by crushing his first HR of the season, again in his 54th AB.  Entering the game he was hitting .226, obviously with 0 HR.  He goes on to win NL MVP and lead the Brewers to the World Series?

*Edit* - I had originally miscounted and thought that he hit a HR in the game of his 54th AB every season.  Darn, I thought I was on to something!