SB Nation User Blog: SRB

Tom H: Brewers a suitor for Lackey?

SRB — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:25:05 -0000

Tom H: Brewers a suitor for Lackey?

According to Tom H (I don't have access to the actual article ) Buster Olney ranks the Brewers atop his list of teams he expects to make a serious run at Lackey. With Suppan's contract coming off the books after next year, he considers a long-term agreement feasible.

Just for Fun: Comparing Gomez and Gutierrez

SRB — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:22:59 -0000

TheJay recently posted a list of players with similarly low OBP to Gomez and how their careers panned out. I was also taking a look at how Gomez's numbers stacked up to another current player who had a comparable career so far both statistically and in terms of their scouting reports as prospects; the Mariners' Franklin Gutierrez (his .307 OBP in the first three seasons of his MLB career missed TheJay's cutoff, as did his 23-25 age). Here's what I saw (please excuse the lack of formatting):

Gomez - Rookie (2004, age 18) - 239 PA - .281 AVG - .324 OBP - .407 SLG - .184 BB/K
Gutierrez - Rookie (2001, age 18) - 258 PA - .269 AVG - .324 OBP - .389 SLG - .410 BB/K

Gomez - A (2005, age 19) - 539 PA - .275 AVG - .331 OBP - .376 SLG - .364 BB/K
Gutierrez - A (2002, age 19) - 419 PA - .283 AVG - .345 OBP - .456 SLG - .348 BB/K

Gomez - AA (2006, age 20) - 486 PA - .281 AVG - .350 OBP - .423 SLG - .280 BB/K
Gutierrez - AA (04-05, 21-22) - 724 PA - .278 AVG - .343 OBP - .440 SLG - .344 BB/K

Gomez - AAA (2007, age 21) - 153 PA - .287 AVG - .366 OBP - .412 SLG - .650 BB/K
Gutierrez - AAA (06-07, 23-24) - 596 PA - .295 AVG - .376 OBP - .448 SLG - .548 BB/K

Gomez - MLB1 (2007, age 21) - 139 PA - .232 AVG - .288 OBP - .304 SLG - .300 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB1 (2006, age 23) - 141 PA - .272 AVG - .288 OBP - .360 SLG - .110 BB/K

Gomez - MLB2 (2008, age 22) - 614 PA - .258 AVG - .296 OBP - .360 SLG - .180 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB2 (2007, age 24) - 301 PA - .266 AVG - .318 OBP - .472 SLG - .270 BB/K

Gomez - MLB3 (2009, age 23) - 349 PA - .229 AVG - .287 OBP - .337 SLG - .310 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB3 (2008, age 25) - 440 PA - .248 AVG - .307 OBP - .383 SLG - .310 BB/K

They're quite similar players, really. Gutierrez has an obvious edge in power, but by all accounts Gomez actually has a stronger build and more "raw power" (why he hasn't shown any of it is another question). Gomez is also different from Gutierrez in that he's considerably faster and more highly-touted on the bases. What I find most interesting:

1) Their OBP are extremely similar at every level. Gutierrez only pulls more than ten or so points away when comparing their second MLB years - when he was the age Gomez will be going into next season. I wasn't sure if it made more sense to compare their lines by age or by level, but in either case the similarities are apparent and show an improvement from Gutierrez in his age 24 season.

2) Their combined BB/K ratios over their first three years in the MLB are relatively similiar. I didn't list them, but their K% are also quite similar with Gomez actually having an edge over Gutierrez.

3) The clear advantage Gutierrez has is in his power (as rather crudely measured here by SLG). But if you go by age instead of year (which makes sense, since I think there's a pretty strong consensus that power develops as players get into their mid-later twenties) the large gap by level disappears. Gutierrez put up a .360 SLG in the MLB at age 23, Gomez put up a .360 SLG at age 22 and dropped off a bit at age 23 with a .337 (when his whole offensive game suffered for not getting a chance to start every day). At age 24 (Gomez's 2010) Gutierrez slugged .472 - though it's obviously unreasonable to expect that big of a jump from Gomez.

Why is this interesting? Maybe it's not, I just though I would compare Gomez to a fellow centerfielder with a similar play-type and scouting report. Gutierrez is arguably a much better defender than even Gomez, and clearly has shown more power (18 HR last season). But Gomez has room to grow defensively and has a huge edge in Gutierrez in SB-potential.

It's also interesting to note, just for fun, the season Gutierrez had in 2009: aided by an admittedly freak defensive season (29.1 UZR!) something we certainly shouldn't expect from Gomez (nor should it really be expected again from Gutierrez) - Gutierrez was by far the most valuable centerfielder in the major leagues, worth 5.9 WAR and $26.4 million. Even if you drop his UZR to a more realistic 20 (what he put up in 2008, and maybe a very optimistic ceiling for Gomez's ability) he would have still been somewhere around tied with Matt Kemp for the most valuable CF in the game.

Am I saying we should expect such phenomenal numbers as Gutierrez posted in 2009 anytime soon from Gomez? Not at all; he clearly still needs a lot of work on his plate discipline, on his ability to translate his supposed raw power into in-game results, and also on his baserunning to compensate for his lack of power.

What I am saying, however, is that the legions of commentators (not necessarily on this site, but extending even to quite a few "professional analysts") who are writing Gomez off as a career defensive replacement, a poor player, or a failed prospect - and of the Hardy/Gomez trade as a laughable Twins coup in terms of value - can easily be proven wrong in the next few years.

I get the criticism of the trade I'm seeing here on BCB, and I'm not really sure it was a smart trade by Melvin myself, but Gomez is here now and I for one am quite excited to have such a promising young player on the team; even if the lack of a pitching return from Hardy is initially underwhelming.

Red Sox offered Bowden for Hardy?

SRB — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:05:39 -0000

Red Sox offered Bowden for Hardy?

According to this article, the Red Sox offered Michael Bowden for JJ, but Melvin wanted at least Daniel Bard or Clay Buchholz.

Certainly won't make the Gomez-haters happy if true. In the end, Melvin is going to look like either a really good judge of talent in taking Gomez (while asking for Buchholz?!), or really out of touch...

Updated 2010 Brewers Roster/Salary Predictions

SRB — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:53:59 -0000

With the question-mark surrounding who the Brewers would get in return for JJ Hardy already settled, and with it looking as though your probable starting centerfielder for 2010 will be Carlos Gomez (love it or hate it - I happen to be a fan), I figured it's time for another look at the 2010 roster. Feel free of correct my arbitration estimates (or other errors) - and I know there are a lot of these projected rosters out there, but it's the offseason; how else am I suppose to occupy my allocated baseball-time?

Aside from arbitration figures, I'm making a few assumptions:

1) Looper's option will not be exercised. Aside from the fact that Looper kind of sucks, I'm also going off Melvin's earlier claim that he's looking to add two starters. Gallardo/Suppan/Bush/Parra will all already be on the team next year, so I'm not sure how/why Looper would be brought back too.

2) I'm making the teary-eyed assumption that McClung will be off the team in 2010. That's largely conjectural, but if I'm wrong it shouldn't have a huge effect on the total salary (I imagine he'd make $2,250,000 or so in arbitration)

3) Based on an interview with Doug Melvin earlier today (linked in a fanshot) I got the impression that Lucroy might be given a chance to make the team out of spring training. I've extremely optimistically listed the two catchers on the 25-man as Rivera/Lucroy, but more realistically the Brewers probably need to add a starting catcher this offseason as well (NOT KENDALL, Doug).

(I've put ages at the start of spring training in parentheses)

C - Mike Rivera (33) [ARB: $750,000]
C - Jonathan Lucroy (23) [$400,000]
1B - Prince Fielder (25) [$11,000,000]
2B - Rickie Weeks (27) [ARB: $2,750,000]
SS - Alcides Escobar (23) [$400,000]
3B - Casey McGehee (27) [$400,000]
IF - Mat Gamel (24) [$400,000]
IF - ???
LF - Ryan Braun (26) [$1,300,000, rounded up]
CF - Carlos Gomez (24) [ARB: $1,000,000]
RF - Corey Hart (27) [ARB: $4,000,000]*
OF - Jody Gerut (32) [ARB: $2,000,000]

SP - Yovani Gallardo (23) [$400,000]
SP - Dave Bush (30) [ARB: $4,250,000]
SP - Manny Parra (27) [$400,000]
SP - ???
SP - ???
CL - Trevor Hoffman (42) [$7,500,000]
RHP - Jeff Suppan (35) [$12,750,000]
RHP - David Riske (33) [$4,500,000]
RHP - Todd Coffey (29) [ARB: $2,250,000]
RHP - Carlos Villanueva (26) [ARB: $2,000,000]
RHP - Mark DiFelice (33) [$400,000]
LHP - Mitch Stetter (29) [$400,000]
LHP - Chris Narveson (28) [$400,000]

X - David Weathers [$400,000]
X - Braden Looper [$1,000,000]*
X - Bill Hall [$7,150,000]

Projected Total Payroll: $68,200,000
(Rounded '09 Payroll):  $80,200,000
Potential Free Agent $: $12,000,000

(* - Fixed based on comments)

That’s obviously a very rough estimate, but given the $12 million figure, the fact that the Brewers payroll has been steadily increasing the past few years (hopefully, even more so in a supposedly “win-now” year like 2010) and the fact that I was pretty generous with arbitration, I’d say it gives them between $12 and $17 million to spend on two starting pitchers, an infielder, probably a catcher, and maybe some relief help.

One thing that jumps out; that is an incredibly young team (especially if Lucroy somehow manages to win the starting job) with a heck of a lot of upside. There are still a few major question marks, but I'm certainly excited already for the first pitch of 2010.

What do you all think? Is that enough payroll flexibility to fill out the roster and field a division-winning team next year? Do one of Gamel/McGehee need to start packing their bags? Who should Melvin specifically target?

I'd like to see him bring Sheets back, resign Counsell for the utility spot, bring in some high-upside reclamation projects (Mulder and Baek come to mind, I'm also partial to an under-the-radar return from Capuano), and look for a cheap veteran catcher to compete with the internal options (Chris Coste, maybe?)

Speculation: Arroyo a possibility for the Brewers?

SRB — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:26:55 -0000

Speculation: Arroyo a possibility for the Brewers?

As per MLB Trade Rumours, the Reds are reportedly close to making a deal and are thought to be selling Arroyo/Harang/Cordero.

On the Reds website the probable pitcher for Tuesday (Arroyo's spot in the rotation) is listed as TBD - as is the identity of the Brewers starter tomorrow. Could Arroyo be the phantom pitcher headed to Milwaukee? (I kind of hope not but wouldn't be surprised)

Jason Kendall popular in China; declared greatest player of all time

SRB — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 06:12:20 -0000

Jason Kendall popular in China; declared greatest player of all time

Or, at least in the newly-bought Chinese version of the Onion

Brewers sign Looper

SRB — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 17:10:28 -0000

Brewers sign Looper

Doesn't sound very definite, but, you know...

UPDATE (by jihad): Deal in place pending physical.

Melvin to officially make an offer to Sabathia

SRB — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 23:33:05 -0000

Melvin to officially make an offer to Sabathia

"At least we have a chance," Melvin said in a conference call with reporters, "whereas before, we wouldn't have any chance with a pitcher of CC's caliber. I do feel we will make him an offer, and at that point, it will be in his court."

Not sure if that's a very enthusiastic remark about our odds, but it's definitely still a possibility!

Brantley completes Sabathia deal

SRB — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 18:12:38 -0000

Brantley completes Sabathia deal

Nothing really new here, I think it's been pretty clear for a while that Brantley would be selected as the PTBNL.

Haudricourt finally confirms.

[sigh --- roguejim]

Robert Frost, Lao Tzu, and the Search for Meaning After Dropping Two to the Cubs

SRB — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 05:44:29 -0000

Robert Frost, Lao Tzu, and the Search for Meaning After Dropping Two to the Cubs

Nice little post over at B&C about our recent struggles, especially the last paragraph.