SBNation.com User Blog: SRJ34

Attaboy, Georgie!

SRJ34 — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:45:28 -0000

Attaboy, Georgie!

I hate - hate hate HATE - seeing opposing fans at the AT&T, and it sucks that Laker fans are infecting the Pacers' building.

Spurs Down The Stretch - Part One

SRJ34 — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 05:06:48 -0000

For whatever reason, SPAM (Spurs Peak After/At March) is not in the PtR Glossary. I found that surprising; SPAM didn't originate here, but neither did "Go Spurs Go" and it turns up in the Comments section all the time. Granted, "Go Spurs Go" isn't in the Glossary either, so what is my point? Oh yeah, I needed some way to introduce the topic at hand. You know, SPAM. Could it be that SPAM has fallen out of favor because it's no longer true? Well, let's investigate.

The first instance of SPAM I can recall was 1994-95, David Robinson's MVP season and the first time the Spurs 1) earned the best record in the NBA and 2) won sixty games. Sixty-two in fact. And that is all we need to remember about that season, nothing else noteworthy took place then. And so it happened that in 1995, the Spurs went 25-4 in March and April. Over a full season, that'll get you a 71-11 record.

(1995 still makes me angry; moving on)

The Spurs followed that up with 22-5 in March and April of 1996, which yields a full season of 67-15. Then came 1996-97, which instead of SPAM, we shall call SCAB (Spurs Crash And Burn) in honor of a franchise-worst 20-62 regular season. Of course, that dreadful record got us a certain #1 draft pick, so who's complaining?

Timmay!'s first season followed: 17-8 in March and April, which wasn't "peaking" as much as it was "maintaining the exact same winning percentage established in the first 57 games"; the 1999 Champs won 14 of their last 17 games (a 68-14 pace); the defending champs finished March and April of 2000 at 16-9, which was about the same winning percentage as their overall mark. We might blame Tim Duncan's knee injury on this one, except the Spurs won three of the four games he missed at the end of the season. It was the playoffs that revealed the true impact of Duncan's absence.

The Spurs earned the best record in the NBA for the third time in 2000-01. They played that March and April at a sizzling 21-5 clip, which makes a 66-16 record over 82 games. And in 2001-02, the final Spurs season played at the Alamodome, the Spurs played their last 25 games at an absurd 22-3 clip - the same winning percentage earned by the legendary 1996 Chicago Bulls.

From 1995-2002 (omitting the SCAB season), the Spurs averaged a record of 58-24 - but played March and April like a 65-17 team. In those days, it was clear - if the team was healthy, they were going to win, and win big, down the stretch. But in 2013, with the Spurs playing in mud against teams like Portland and Dallas, is that true today? Are the Spurs no longer SPAMmers these days?

Let's investigate the previous ten seasons (2003-2012) to find out. Here's how I'm going to do it:

1) I'm throwing out an outlier from the 2003-07 and one from 2008-12. The reason I'm doing this is a year like 2005, my outlier from the first five seasons. Tim Duncan got hurt in game 65 of that season and the Spurs lost that game, as well as seven others. With a healthy Tim Duncan I don't think the Spurs finish that season 9-8.

2) For the lockout-shortened 2012 season, I'm going with the final 1/3rd of the season, or 22 games.

That's all I've got. And here are my findings:

2003
Overall: 60-22 (.732), best record in NBA
Before March: 39-17 (.696), 2nd-best record in NBA (Dallas #1)
March and April: 21-5 (.808)

Really, in this case it was more like SPIT (Spurs Peak In Two-thousand-three). They went 19-13 in the 2002 portion of the season and 41-9 in the 2003 portion. Considering that most of the team was made up of either twilight guys (DRob, Ferry, Smitty, Willis, Kerr) or the young-and-greens (TP, Manu, Jax, Speedy), it's an incredible accomplishment. That bunch plus Bowen, Malik Rose, and TimVP Part II was team enough to take down Shaq and Kobe in their house. In a related story, Gregg Popovich won NBA COY that year.

2004
Overall: 57-25 (.695), 3rd-best record in NBA (Indiana #1, Minnesota #2)
Before March: 39-20 (.661), 4th-best record in NBA, 3rd-best in West (Sacramento #1, Minnesota #2)
March and April: 18-5 (.783)

The first Spurs team minus the Admiral and it was definitely strange. The guys we brought in to replace DRob and the other old guys ranged from adequate to, uh, less adequate. Rasho Nesterovic replaced Robinson - on defense, anyway. Offensively, Rasho was a most reluctant player - he made Boris Diaw look like a gunner. We brought in Hedo Turkoglu who was really solid until the playoffs came around. Ron Mercer was a guy who passed the eye test but never could stick in the NBA. Anthony Carter, a career journeyman, was supposed to be Tony's backup but he hurt his knee early on in the year and no one heard from him again. Alex Garcia could really dunk, but on the NBA level it was apparently his only skill. Charlie Ward came in during the season and was supposed to be Tony's backup but gave the Spurs nothing at all, compiling only 13 minutes in the playoffs. Robert Horry played his first silver and black season and, while solid during the year, looked like a shot player in four of the six playoff games against the LA Lakers. And yet, it still took an ~~illegal~~ miracle shot by Derek "Tony must dominate" Fisher to topple the defending champs.

2006
Overall: 63-19 (.768), 2nd-best record in NBA (Detroit #1)
Before March: 44-12 (.786), 3rd-best record in NBA (Detroit #1, Dallas #2)
March and April: 18-7 (.720)

You can't put too much stock in coincidences, but the Spurs have earned the #1 seed in the West seven times. On two occasions the #1 came via tiebreak (1999 and 2003), the rest they won outright. The Spurs have yet to win the West #1 seed outright and go on to win the NBA title. Maybe we should let OKC catch up to us...?

I don't want to rehash this season very much; it was the "Tim's plantar fasciitis, too much van Exel, Nazr Mohammed's three-pointer, worst officiating EVAR, Manu's foul after a huge three capping a 3-1 comeback" season. Ugggh. I want to vomit now.

2007
Overall: 58-24 (.707) 3rd-best record in NBA (Dallas #1, Phoenix #2)
Before March: 39-18 (.684), 3rd-best record in NBA (Dallas #1, Phoenix #2)
March and April: 19-6 (.760)

This may not be a popular opinion to hold, but I really believe that if Dallas had somehow beaten Golden State (weird that their toughest opponent had the 12th-best record in the league) in round one, they would have won the title. Even if they had played the Spurs; Dallas was 9-6 against us in 2006 and 2007, including that game seven win in the AT&T in the previous postseason. But we were better than everyone else, including a tough Phoenix team. Sometimes luck goes for you, sometimes against. We certainly know all about drawing a tough round matchup, don't we?

From 2003-07 (omitting 2005), the Spurs averaged a record of 59-23. In those four seasons, the Spurs compiled a March and April record of 76-23, which translates into 63-19 over 82 games. It is undeniable that, during the heart of the championship era, the Spurs raised their game in time for the postseason. In part two, we will examine the Spurs March and April performance in the five seasons since the 2007 championship.

(1995 still makes me angry; moving on)

Let's investigate the previous ten seasons (2003-2012) to find out. Here's how I'm going to do it:

2) For the lockout-shortened 2012 season, I'm going with the final 1/3rd of the season, or 22 games.

That's all I've got. And here are my findings:

2003
Overall: 60-22 (.732), best record in NBA
Before March: 39-17 (.696), 2nd-best record in NBA (Dallas #1)
March and April: 21-5 (.808)

2006
Overall: 63-19 (.768), 2nd-best record in NBA (Detroit #1)
Before March: 44-12 (.786), 3rd-best record in NBA (Detroit #1, Dallas #2)
March and April: 18-7 (.720)

2007
Overall: 58-24 (.707) 3rd-best record in NBA (Dallas #1, Phoenix #2)
Before March: 39-18 (.684), 3rd-best record in NBA (Dallas #1, Phoenix #2)
March and April: 19-6 (.760)

Stack Ranking the Spurs against the league's best

SRJ34 — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 00:21:28 -0000

This is my Tuesday thing. It's a little late because I started a new job this week - or at least that's what I'll tell you guys.

Winning Percentage (Win%)

1. Miami Heat .770 (63-19)
2. San Antonio Spurs .766 (63-19)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder .734 (60-22)
4. Los Angeles Clippers .692 (57-25)
5. Memphis Grizzlies .689 (56-26)

I know it's weird that three one-hundredths of a point separate the Clips and the Bears but they're on pace to have two different records. That's just what happens when you round numbers. This probably does reflect reality, though - I'll bet they finish either tied or one game apart in the end.

Margin of Victory (MoV)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder +9.28
2. San Antonio Spurs +8.64
3. Miami Heat +7.31
4. Los Angeles Clippers +6.77
5. Denver Nuggets +4.60

Last week the Spurs and Thunder were separated by .32 in this category; now that lead has doubled for the Thunder despite the Spurs' victory last night. A thirty-point loss will have that effect.

Simple Rating System (SRS)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 9.32
2. San Antonio Spurs 8.51
3. Miami Heat 7.05
4. Los Angeles Clippers 6.73
5. Denver Nuggets 4.69

The problem with starting this survey in late February is that more than half the season is done with; there seems to be little doubt that these are the five best teams in the NBA in 2012-13. It would have been more fun to keep track of this stuff from the start of the season to see which teams started hot and faded (cough Clippers cough), which teams gained strength as the season progressed (cough Miami, Denver cough), and which teams were among the best all throughout the season (cough Spurs, Thunder cough COUGH COUGH OH CRAP I'M CHOKING).

Bill James' NBA Power Ratings (James)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 209.5
2. San Antonio Spurs 208.7
3. Miami Heat 207.1
4. Los Angeles Clippers 206.7
5. Denver Nuggets 205.2

Like I said, your Fab Five. Everything's pointing in that direction.

John Hollinger's Power Ratings (Hollinger)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 110.53
2. San Antonio Spurs 108.94
3. Miami Heat 108.30
4. Los Angeles Clippers 107.22
5. Denver Nuggets 105.68

This is getting repetitive. Wouldn't it be cool if a good writer were here to cull some interesting abstractions from these lists?

ON TAP

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at POR (3/12), at LAC (3/13), at DEN (3/15), at UTA (3/16), vs. MIN (3/18)

One creampuff on this schedule, which they will most assuredly need after four tough road games in five nights. Now, if Memphis somehow sweeps this bunch, watch hoops writers throughout the blogosphere fall all over themselves to compliment them. "Peaking at the right time", "Finding their game", "Hitting their stride"...blah blah blah. They all sound like euphemisms for something naughty.

DENVER NUGGETS

vs. NYK (3/13), vs. MEM (3/15), at CHI (3/18)

No weakies here, but it's a light schedule with two of the three at home. I wonder if maybe we all make too much of Denver's homecourt advantage? This franchise has not once appeared in the NBA Finals. And they've only been to the Conference Finals three times since joining the NBA in 1977. By contrast, the Spurs have only missed the playoffs FOUR times in that same time. And think about this: all the other former ABA franchises have gone to the NBA Finals - even the usually putrid Nets did it in 2002 and 2003.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

vs. MEM (3/13), vs NYK (3/17)

Last week I pointed out that the Clippers haven't beaten a quality opponent in some time; they failed to do so again last Thursday in Denver. If they don't win either of these games, they are complete and utter fool's gold. Not even DeAndre Jordan's awesome dunking skills will save them. (No link, because I'm lazy and we've all seen it by now)

By the way, people gave DAJ way too much credit for that dunk. The guy trying to block it was like half his size. Jordan is like 8 feet tall with a 50 inch vertical or something; instead of propping him up for throwing down on Mini-Me, people should ask where he was for the rest of this game with that kind of raw physical ability. Not even David Robinson was that athletic and he was ten times the player DAJ is.

I'm a bitter old fart.

MIAMI HEAT

vs. ATL (3/12), at PHI (3/13), at MIL (3/15), at TOR (3/17), at BOS (3/18)

Mark your calendars: Saturday, March 16th marks the eleventh anniversary of Miami's last loss. These four games are part of a five-game roadie that ends in Cleveland on March 20th. It would be a gas to see Miami's streak end there, but I don't think any of these losers will get it done. If Boston puts it all together, summons all of their championship spirit and competitive pride for one night, they might pull out a quarter.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

vs. UTA (3/13), vs. ORL (3/15), at DAL (3/17)

Somehow I think Los Trenos will bounce back nicely from their Monday night loss in SA.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

at MIN (3/12), vs. DAL (3/14), vs. CLE (3/16)

As I write this, the Spurs are getting crushed by the T'Wolves. It sucks, but I'd much rather lose to the Blazers and Wolves if it meant beating OKC in between. Adequate rest and playing at home should yield two wins afterward.

(Am I calling the game? That's for you to decide, but if you think I am, note that I did not do so in the game thread. Lawyered.)

This is my Tuesday thing. It's a little late because I started a new job this week - or at least that's what I'll tell you guys.

Winning Percentage (Win%)

1. Miami Heat .770 (63-19)
2. San Antonio Spurs .766 (63-19)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder .734 (60-22)
4. Los Angeles Clippers .692 (57-25)
5. Memphis Grizzlies .689 (56-26)

Margin of Victory (MoV)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder +9.28
2. San Antonio Spurs +8.64
3. Miami Heat +7.31
4. Los Angeles Clippers +6.77
5. Denver Nuggets +4.60

Last week the Spurs and Thunder were separated by .32 in this category; now that lead has doubled for the Thunder despite the Spurs' victory last night. A thirty-point loss will have that effect.

Simple Rating System (SRS)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 9.32
2. San Antonio Spurs 8.51
3. Miami Heat 7.05
4. Los Angeles Clippers 6.73
5. Denver Nuggets 4.69

Bill James' NBA Power Ratings (James)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 209.5
2. San Antonio Spurs 208.7
3. Miami Heat 207.1
4. Los Angeles Clippers 206.7
5. Denver Nuggets 205.2

Like I said, your Fab Five. Everything's pointing in that direction.

John Hollinger's Power Ratings (Hollinger)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 110.53
2. San Antonio Spurs 108.94
3. Miami Heat 108.30
4. Los Angeles Clippers 107.22
5. Denver Nuggets 105.68

This is getting repetitive. Wouldn't it be cool if a good writer were here to cull some interesting abstractions from these lists?

ON TAP

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

at POR (3/12), at LAC (3/13), at DEN (3/15), at UTA (3/16), vs. MIN (3/18)

DENVER NUGGETS

vs. NYK (3/13), vs. MEM (3/15), at CHI (3/18)

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

vs. MEM (3/13), vs NYK (3/17)

I'm a bitter old fart.

MIAMI HEAT

vs. ATL (3/12), at PHI (3/13), at MIL (3/15), at TOR (3/17), at BOS (3/18)

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

vs. UTA (3/13), vs. ORL (3/15), at DAL (3/17)

Somehow I think Los Trenos will bounce back nicely from their Monday night loss in SA.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

at MIN (3/12), vs. DAL (3/14), vs. CLE (3/16)

(Am I calling the game? That's for you to decide, but if you think I am, note that I did not do so in the game thread. Lawyered.)

A Tale of Two Seats

SRJ34 — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 07:36:43 -0000

So I'm at work on a slow-moving afternoon when nothing particular is taking place; my phone rings.

"Ahoy ahoy," says I.

"What are you doing?" says the voice on the other end. It belongs to my brother, and I'm already annoyed. He's going to the Spurs game in a few hours and he's jamming my face in it. Besides, I can't stand that question when the answer is so freaking obvious: Talking on the $%&*! phone, you jackass!

"Nothing really," I reply. I won't give him the satisfaction; I'll carry on as though I'm happy for him and his stupid floor-level seat at the stupid game and don't the Bulls suck anyway without Derrick Rose who wants to go see that stupid game? I want to vomit.

"What will you be doing after work?" Oh great - now he's fishing around for a babysitter. He and his wife are gonna have a grand old time while I chase around Veronica The Brute all night. Oh well. Maybe they've got chips.

"Can you get off early? We've got an extra ticket to the game...Hello? Hello, are you there?"

It takes a while to reply when you've crashed to the floor feeling faint.

***

On March 20, 2004, the San Antonio Spurs defeated the visiting Boston Celtics 103-87. In 24 minutes Manu Ginobili was 7-10 from the field (3-3 from three-point range) with a plus/minus of +11. They outscored the Celtics 46-34, or +12, in the second half in a 16-point victory over the Eastern Conference's eighth-best team.

This, amongst other things, is what took place the last time I attended a Spurs game in person.

***

We stop in Nixon, at the Happy Sac. My brother's wife isn't into the blue humor, which is why I'm suppressing every scrotum-related joke I can think of. They sell Hunt Brothers pizza there, and I could go for some pizza.

Oh, hey, looky here - no supreme. Geez. I was all wound up for a slice or two or twelve of some delicious supreme pizza. Or even terrible supreme pizza - I've never had Hunt Brothers. Oh well, I'll just get one of those personal pizzas at the Subway; there's a Subway in this joint too.

"No sir, we don't sell pizza, since we have," she adds a little please-understand giggle, "the pizza place here!"

Oooooooof course. Well, then I settle for a meatball sandwich with pepperoni. That's when things go even more badly:

1) My belief is, on a hot sandwich, most folks want the cheese melted. To do that, you and I would put the cheese down first, then put the hot meatballs and marinara sauce on top. Not this Sandwich Artist - she goes: bread, meatballs, sauce, pepperoni, cheese.

2) You see what's happening here? The only way I'm getting the melted cheese is if they toast the sandwich, which I hate. But I'm locked in here, my hand is forced. Reluctantly, I opt for the toasting. Which comes out too toasty. And now the cheese is too melted.

3) What gets me is, the whole cheese-meatballs-marinara method is how they USED to do it at Subway. Nowadays they hardly ever do cheese-first anymore, which is so asinine. But you can't tell these people anything! Swear to God, make a suggestion about how you want your sandwich made and it's like you're trying to butt into their lives. So you're stuck with a poorly-made sandwich. You see, this is why I don't vote.

Whatever. The sandwich is adequate, and I'm going to the Spurs game. Take THAT, Happy Sac/Hunt Brothers/Subway!

***

The walk from the car to the AT&T entrance was a too long and too brisk walk for my tastes. Or maybe I'm just in woeful physical condition. Anyway, after getting scanned out front - by the way, what kind of world is this when you can't even sneak a dirty bomb into a sports arena anymore? - my brother, his wife and I make for our seats.

The one seat - the free seat my brother won, the whole reason this trip became a thing - is in Section 20. The other two seats are in Section 118. My brother's wife and I are in 118 and my brother's in 20. Our seats are really good; his is fantastic.

There are two arena-related phenomena of which I never tire:

1) The walk into the arena. Walking through that tiny little tunnel into a colossal room dominated by a Jumbotron and a basketball court...at times like this, I am so jealous of the players. I would love to taste that just once, running out onto the floor for warmups.

2) Turning out the arena lights for player introductions. This is the cheapest gimmick there is and to me it's awesome every single time.

Anyway, game on! We won the tip, jump out to an 8-0 lead, basketball is easy. We're on pace to win this thing 216-0.

Well, of course, you all watched it - the Bulls got acclimatized to the situation and made a game out of it. Their defense tightens and they finish the quarter on a nice 23-14 surge.

Things get dicey. The Bulls defensive pressure is making us blow layups, turn the ball over (9-3 in the Bulls' favor in that first half), and push us out of our comfort zone. The only time the ball moves is from our possession to theirs. I'm wondering if the hole's too deep. I'm wondering if we've been off too long.

I'm worried about Manu in particular. He's back to forcing things again, and he's got three TOs in about 10 minutes of play. After a season full of injury setbacks, is he going to find that Manu gear against a tough Chicago defense? With 4:06 in the second quarter, we're down 46-32. 46-32??

It may have taken most of the first half to knock off the rust, but they do. Manu nails a three. Kawhi hammers a dunk. Tim puts back a miss with authority. Kawhi gets to the rim again. Just like that, it's a four-point game. The Bulls get a point back and lead it by five going into the break.

The happy couple and I reunite at the half back in the tunnels. Or the concourse. I don't know what you call that area where all the restrooms and souvenirs and food can be found, but there. That's when my brother asks his wife if she wants to take the Section 20 seat in the second half.

She declines the offer, which leaves...me.

***

It took some time to get down to Section 20. Staircases once easily accessed were now barred by rope, so I had to go down via elevator to the club level or the player level or, ahhh, I can't remember my terminology anymore. I was just bummed that I was missing game action. But I eventually found my seat.

Holy Crap.

These aren't real seats. Am I in the holodeck? I had seventh-row seats at the Alamodome in 1999, but do you all remember how vast the Alamodome out-of-bounds areas were? This was waaaaaay closer. I could have hit a jumpshot from that seat. Would have taken 20-30 tries, but it was doable.

The 2-minute, 9-0 run from the second quarter was necessary to restore order; in the third the Spurs did things the Jacob Riis way. 8:33 into the third, it was a brand new ballgame at 63-63 following a Boris Diaw bucket. The teams traded leads until the game was tied one final time at 68-68 with 1:49 left in the third.

For the next twelve minutes and nine seconds, the Spurs would outscore the Bulls 31-15. Yowzah.

And who sparked that dominant stretch of basketball? The same guy that was throwing passes away in the first half, Mr. Manu Ginobili. 5 points, 5 assists, and one rebound in about ten minutes during that 12-minute pull away. He did throw out one more TO for good measure, but it was one of only three second half turnovers committed by the Silver and Black. They really tightened their game up after the Bulls raised the bar.

Ginobili was far from the only star tonight. Double-doubles from Timmy and Tiago. TD threw in five first-half schmacks just to pad his stats, as he is wont to do. Patty Mills did his usual "energy and threes" routine. Cory Joseph looks like a different player these days - I loved the way he competed, I loved how he stepped into that first quarter jumper, and that offensive rebound was Fat Leveresque. I hope he keeps on growing. Danny Green gave us the stuff he always does; who doesn't love Verde? And Boris Diaw was a big, big part of the third quarter rock-pounding. But how about Kawhi? That guy was in serious attack mode, rising up to punish rims from coast to coast. 14 points, 7 boards - what can't he do? (Besides smile.)

To watch a performance like this about twenty feet away from our boys was just tremendous. Bet my brother never lets me hear the end of it, about how I owe him one. Meh, I guess he's right.

***

On March 6, 2013, the San Antonio Spurs defeated the visiting Chicago Bulls 103-87. In 26 minutes off the bench, Manu Ginobili was 7-14 from the field (3-5 from three-point range) with a plus/minus of +11. They outscored the Bulls 54-31, or +23, in the second half in an 18-point victory over the Eastern Conference's sixth-best team.

This, amongst other things, is what took place last night when I attended a Spurs game in person. Nine years is a long time, but I guess some things don't change very much.

So I'm at work on a slow-moving afternoon when nothing particular is taking place; my phone rings.

"Ahoy ahoy," says I.

"Can you get off early? We've got an extra ticket to the game...Hello? Hello, are you there?"

It takes a while to reply when you've crashed to the floor feeling faint.

***

This, amongst other things, is what took place the last time I attended a Spurs game in person.

***

"No sir, we don't sell pizza, since we have," she adds a little please-understand giggle, "the pizza place here!"

Oooooooof course. Well, then I settle for a meatball sandwich with pepperoni. That's when things go even more badly:

Whatever. The sandwich is adequate, and I'm going to the Spurs game. Take THAT, Happy Sac/Hunt Brothers/Subway!

***

There are two arena-related phenomena of which I never tire:

2) Turning out the arena lights for player introductions. This is the cheapest gimmick there is and to me it's awesome every single time.

Anyway, game on! We won the tip, jump out to an 8-0 lead, basketball is easy. We're on pace to win this thing 216-0.

Well, of course, you all watched it - the Bulls got acclimatized to the situation and made a game out of it. Their defense tightens and they finish the quarter on a nice 23-14 surge.

She declines the offer, which leaves...me.

***

Holy Crap.

For the next twelve minutes and nine seconds, the Spurs would outscore the Bulls 31-15. Yowzah.

To watch a performance like this about twenty feet away from our boys was just tremendous. Bet my brother never lets me hear the end of it, about how I owe him one. Meh, I guess he's right.

***

This, amongst other things, is what took place last night when I attended a Spurs game in person. Nine years is a long time, but I guess some things don't change very much.

The Spurs Contender Watch: The March to April

SRJ34 — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 18:13:54 -0000

It gets a little warmer moving out of February and into March. Maybe that's because there's more...Heat?

Winning Percentage (Win%)

1. San Antonio Spurs .770 (63-19)
2. Miami Heat .759 (62-20)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder .729 (60-22)
4. Los Angeles Clippers .694 (57-25)
5. Memphis Grizzlies .672 (55-27)

No change here compared to last week, save the numbers in the hundredths and thousandths decimal places.

Margin of Victory (MoV)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder +9.39
2. San Antonio Spurs +9.07
3. Miami Heat +7.28
4. Los Angeles Clippers +6.56
5. Indiana Pacers +4.32

See comment above.

Simple Rating System (SRS)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 9.38
2. San Antonio Spurs 8.78
3. Miami Heat 7.12
4. Los Angeles Clippers 6.55
5-6. Denver Nuggets 4.15
5-6. Memphis Grizzlies 4.15

Wow. Three metrics down and not a single change in rank anywhere. I guess this would be a good time to point out that we have to hope that nothing changes in the West, i.e. Spurs #1, Thunder #2, Clippers #3. If all the high seeds win, the Thunder and Clippers can punch each other in the groin for seven games. (Of course, this would mean a 1-4 matchup with the almost literally named Grizzlies; damn, the playoffs are tough.)

Bill James' NBA Power Ratings (James)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 209.6
2. San Antonio Spurs 209.2
3. Miami Heat 207.4
4. Los Angeles Clippers 206.5
5. Denver Nuggets 204.5

I guess I could have just linked to last week's edition...?

John Hollinger's Power Ratings (Hollinger)

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 110.16
2. San Antonio Spurs 109.89
3. Miami Heat 108.89
4. Los Angeles Clippers 106.37
5. Houston Rockets 106.03

The only change we've seen on five lists, and at that it was only the Clippers and Rockets flipping the 4-5 spots. What surprises a bit is that the Miami Heat aren't showing up stronger on the power rankings (James and Hollinger). This is the dark side of playing out East - you win 14 in a row and cold calculating machines look at it and say, "Meh, let me know when you play a real team."

ON TAP

A new wrinkle to this weekly piece, I will post the upcoming week schedules of each team listed here.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
vs. Bulls (3/6), vs. Blazers (3/8), vs. Thunder (3/11)

Two reasonably tough games and a showdown game. Playing OKC without Tony will be a tall order, even at home.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
vs. Lakers (3/5), at Knicks (3/7), at Bobcats (3/8), vs. Celtics (3/10), at Spurs (3/11)

The Bobcats are the only breather on this tough stretch of schedule. The Lakers are playing better basketball, the Knicks are pretty decent, and the Celtics have this weird ability to play above their heads sometimes. Five games in seven nights, three of them on the road. Oof.

MIAMI HEAT
vs. Magic (3/6), vs. 76ers (3/8), vs. Pacers (3/10)

One tough game at home Sunday. The streak may not be over by this time next week.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
vs. Bucks (3/6), at Nuggets (3/7), vs. Detroit (3/10)

Honestly, that game at Denver looks like a must win at this point. After recent losses to the Spurs and Thunder, the Clippers will have to show observers and themselves that they can still win against a quality opponent. Their biggest wins since February 1st are at the Knicks and at home against the Rockets. Their biggest win in 2013 came in Memphis on January 14th.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
vs. Blazers (3/6), at Cavaliers (3/8), vs. Hornets (3/9)

The Portland game might be tough, but this looks rather like a 3-0 week for Les Grizzerables.

INDIANA PACERS
vs. Celtics (3/6), at Magic (3/8), at Heat (3/10)

This could be a 1-2 week for the Pacers, but they've got a respectable 5-6 record against the other seven teams seen here. How has every other team fared against this group?

Spurs 10-6 (.625)
Thunder 9-7 (.563)
Heat 9-4 (.692)
Clippers 9-6 (.600)
Grizzlies 5-11 (.313)
Pacers 5-6 (.455)
Nuggets 11-6 (.647)
Rockets 2-14 (.125)

Well. It would appear that Houston is the classic "beats everyone below them, loses to everyone above them" team.

DENVER NUGGETS

at Kings (3/5), vs. Clippers (3/7), vs. Timberwolves (3/9), at Suns (3/11)

Denver seems to be doing their annual "team no one wants to play in the playoffs" routine.

HOUSTON ROCKETS
at Mavericks (3/6), at Warriors (3/8), at Suns (3/9)

Three road games in four nights might just be enough to knock Houston off of John Hollinger's radar.

Let's rally for Tony Pizzle (AKA The Machine), everybody! Go Spurs Go!