SBNation.com User Blog: SUTTON

The Dao of Isaac: Miami Dolphins, the Slovenian Language, and Projectile Pooping

SUTTON — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 21:56:20 -0000

As many of you know, I have been expecting a son. Finally, Isaac arrived on Thursday, June 13, at 5:15 a.m., after being 15 days late. It was the best moment of my life, and a sincere thanks to everyone for the warm wishes and congratulations. Wifey and baby are healthy.

Which brings me to projectile pooping. Almost every dad I spoke to, when discussing having a son with them, said something like this, "Make sure you have something in front of his ding-a-ling so you don't get sprayed!" Trusting my wise comrades, I employed a shield technique, using the new diaper to be a barrier and blocking any unwelcome golden showers (aside from Alpha, I'm not sure those are welcomed by many people), while changing the old diaper.

This technique worked magically for the first dozen-or-so diaper changes. And then sh it happened. We had a follow-up appointment with our pediatrician this morning and I was changing his diaper before we had to go. That clever child waited until I had the new diaper hovering over his ding-dong and, pfffffttttt, used the 8-inch window between the diaper and the changing table to launch some stadium mustard all over me. And by stadium mustard, I mean poop. Mind you, I am a good two feet from where the blitzkrieg originated. He was able to soil every article of clothing I had on - except for my Dolphins hat!!! After cleaning everything up and changing my clothes.....yeeeaaaaa....we were about half an hour late.

Rewind one day, and it's Father's Day. The first day we spend at our home, free of the confines of the hospital. My back will never be the same. Anyway, we return to our house and my wife's family comes over to visit. Excited beyond belief, they take Isaac to his room, sit down with him on the chair, and debate which story to read to him first. My wife is 1/2 Slovenian, so a few of the books we have are written in Slovenian. Her sister suggested the first book we read to him be in Slovenian. I was on the computer catching up on minicamp and other Dolphins news, when another explosion of sorts occurred, this time being of the gaseous variety. My wife's sister opened the front cover and was literally about to say the first word, when "FFFAAARRTTTT!" Isaac created a Krakatau with his miniscule butt, how he was able to cause such a ruckus should defy science. It was so startling, not only did I accuse the adults of farting on my newborn child, but it caused my dog to awake from his slumber to ensure everything was OK. When I entered the room, my wife's sisters were crying from laughing so hard, Isaac was asleep, and I smiled with pride. "Damn straight", Isaac must have thought, "I want my first-by-God story read to me in ~~American~~ English!"

Rewind to the day of his birth, and we had just returned to our labor and delivery room with him (I promise this story doesn't deal with poop, farts, or hemorrhoids...although as you can see, I am quite fond of the potty humor). My wife was in labor almost 24 hours and THEN had a C-section, so needless to say she was desperate for some sleep. Isaac was fairly alert and curious at this point, so I was holding him and babbling on about a bunch of random stuff. Then it occurred to me: talk to him about the Dolphins! So like any good Dolphins dad, I began telling him of the 1972 season, the Mark brothers, good ol' Danny boy, Surtain and Madison, Ricky and Ronnie, Zach and Jason, Lousaka Polite and the "Stormin' Mormon" John Beck. After a brief historical introduction, I began listing off the probable opening day starters for the 2013 Miami Dolphins. Isaac cried for one, and only one, Dolphins player. Here is our conversation (me in regular font and Isaac in bold):

Ryan Tannehill. Silence.

Lamar Miller. Silence.

Mike Wallace. Silence.

Brian Hartline. Silence.

Brandon Gibson. Silence.

Dustin Keller. Silence.

Jonathan Martin. Silence.

Richie Incognito. Silence.

Mike Pouncey. Silence.

John Jerry/Nate Garner/Dallas Thomas. Slight stir, but silence.

Tyson Clabo. Silence.

OK, good stuff, he likes the offense. Let's see what he has to say about the defense.

Cameron Wake. Silence.

Paul Soliai. Silence.

Randy Starks. Silence.

Olivier Vernon. Silence.

Philip Wheeler. Silence.

Dannell Ellerbe. Silence.

Koa Misi. WWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Brent Grimes. (calms down immediately) Silence.

Richard Marshall/Jamar Taylor. Silence.

Reshad Jones. Silence.

Chris Clemons. Silence.

Perhaps it's the protective father in me, but by God, I think my son is on to something! OK, so the picture up above kind of gave it away. He's a "solid" player, but is there anything to suggest that he will be anything other than that? Now, granted, I've heard good things from OTA's and minicamp about his performance, specifically making plays and creating turnovers. And I honestly don't want to bash the guy because, from all reports, he's a stand-up guy, good in the locker room, and a solid contributor. He won't make the huge play, but he won't make the monumental mistake either. At any rate, my problem is with production. He averages 46 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 3 sacks per season. He has been slowed the last 2 years with injuries, missing 6 games in the last 2 seasons. We drafted Dion Jordan #3. How long do we give Misi before Jordan steps in? Is Misi's edge-setting so invaluable that someone else can't do it, someone else who might have more skills to get after the passer, intercept passes, and cover a TE in addition? I will have faith in Misi and the coaching staff, but I am looking for the earliest opportunity to get Jordan into a semi-regular rotation. I love the idea of having Vernon, Wake, and Jordan all on the field at the same time, regardless of down. However you slice it, I love the newfound flexibility and variety that Coyle has at his disposal this year. I would love to have the dominating defense of recent memory. And it might be nice to have Misi's run-stuffing when we play Buffalo and the Jets four times a year, who will rely heavily on a running game. I just expect more from Misi. We don't have to settle for "solid" anymore, but I am willing to give Misi the benefit of the doubt for one more year. But I absolutely love the fact that we have Dion Jordan waiting in the wings, and I want him to take over sooner than later.

Your thoughts on Misi? Or projectile pooping?

Take care everyone! Lots of love from the Sutton family!

via prod.static.dolphins.clubs.nfl.com

Ryan Tannehill. Silence.

Lamar Miller. Silence.

Mike Wallace. Silence.

Brian Hartline. Silence.

Brandon Gibson. Silence.

Dustin Keller. Silence.

Jonathan Martin. Silence.

Richie Incognito. Silence.

Mike Pouncey. Silence.

John Jerry/Nate Garner/Dallas Thomas. Slight stir, but silence.

Tyson Clabo. Silence.

OK, good stuff, he likes the offense. Let's see what he has to say about the defense.

Cameron Wake. Silence.

Paul Soliai. Silence.

Randy Starks. Silence.

Olivier Vernon. Silence.

Philip Wheeler. Silence.

Dannell Ellerbe. Silence.

Koa Misi. WWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Brent Grimes. (calms down immediately) Silence.

Richard Marshall/Jamar Taylor. Silence.

Reshad Jones. Silence.

Chris Clemons. Silence.

Your thoughts on Misi? Or projectile pooping?

Take care everyone! Lots of love from the Sutton family!

Hemorrhoids, Mike Sherman, and the German Shepherd Across the Street

SUTTON — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 22:34:23 -0000

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What do all of these things have in common? It's something someone in the Sutton household has worried about today. My wife is super pregnant, I am skeptical, and my dog doesn't want to die. Ironically, neither my wife or I are as worried about our 10-day-overdue son as we are about an inflamed butthole and an offensive coordinator. Didn't say we were perfect...

As I was sipping on a delicious beer and doing research for fantasy football, I kept seeing how the NFL is a pass-first league, blah blah blah, how important the pass is, blah blah blah, eight of the top 11 single-season passing attempt leaders in NFL history have been established over the last three years, blah blah blah. For whatever reason, it annoys me. I can't put my finger on it. I like to think that balance still reigns supreme. So I started to do some research. What I found kind of blew my mind, and I'd like to share it with you.

I took a look at every Super Bowl champion since 1966 to decipher what their run/pass balance was. This statistic is highly reliable since it takes into account the variance of the NFL's play-calling. In other words, these statistics take into account the Super Bowl winning team in comparison to the other NFL teams of that year, adjusting to local trends. With the pedestal that the passing game has been put on, you would expect Super Bowl-winning teams to favor the pass (and be productive doing so). Since 1966, the Super Bowl champion has ranked in the top 10 in pass ratio 3 times: 1970 Baltimore Colts, 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the 2011 New York Giants. In 46 years, the winning team in the NFL has been in the top 10 in pass ratio three times. I thought it was worth repeating.

The run ratio, you ask? Of all the Super Bowl winning teams, TWENTY-SEVEN teams finished in the top 10 in run ratio. 27 of a possible 46 Super Bowl champions finished in the top 10 in run ratio. Almost 60%. Now it's worth mentioning that teams who have leads, like Super Bowl-winning teams, rely on the run game to drown the clock and protect the lead (just ask Sparano about this ~~failed~~ tactic). An effective run game can milk precious time off the clock to prevent teams from airing it out and making comebacks. Conversely, teams that have to pass an overwhelming amount are probably playing from behind and trying to put points on the board. But, I got to thinking, does that really explain why it's 27-to-3? And if we take a more "modern" sample size, say, the last 15 years, it's still 7-to-2 in favor of the run ratio. 11 of the 15 teams of the past 15 Super Bowl champions had a statistically higher run-to-pass ratio (not meaning they ran more, but in comparison to other NFL teams they ran more), regardless of being in the top 10.

Remember how 8 of the past 11 single-season passing attempts records have been broken in the last 3 years? Care to guess what the most "pass-happy" season was in NFL history? 1995. In fact, during the 1994-1996 NFL seasons, teams threw 56.4% of all offensive plays. In the 2009-2011 NFL seasons, teams threw 56.8% of all offensive plays. So when you hear someone say, "the NFL is now a pass-happy league", ask them where they were 20 years ago. The pass-happiness of the NFL hasn't changed much in 20 years, so it's a misnomer that the NFL's offensive landscape has changed much. It may look different (WR screens, option routes, and the proliferation of the athletic TE), but the NFL is throwing the ball no more than it did 20 years ago.

Enter Mike Sherman.

Mike Sherman has been an offensive coach for a long time: tight ends, offensive line, offensive coordinator, head coach in the NFL and college, and acted as GM. I desperately, desperately hoped to see a semblance of balance as an offensive coordinator, since that is the position he holds with our beloved team. I took his last 2 years as an offensive coordinator, the 2007 Houston Texans and 2012 Miami Dolphins as the most recent examples of what his play-calling ratio entails. In 2007, Sherman called 417 run plays vs. 529 pass plays with the newly acquired Matt Schaub and veteran Ron Dayne. 44% run, 56% pass. In 2012, Sherman called 440 run plays vs. 504 pass plays with a rookie QB (granted he coached him the previous 4 seasons at Texas A&M) and a shifty Reggie Bush at RB. 46% run, 54% pass. Doesn't seem too bad, right?

Keep in mind that those play-calling statistics involved QB's that were an unknown trade commodity (Matt Schaub) and rookie QB (Ryan Tannehill), respectively. The 10 most run-heavy offenses since 2000 featured 5 of 6 teams possessing a rookie QB: Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Flacco, Ryan, and Boller. 9 of these 10 heavy run-oriented teams made the playoffs. It makes sense: trust your defense, run the ball and eliminate mistakes, and make plays when you have to. Schaub and Tannehill were both essentially rookies (well Tannehill WAS a rookie) when they took over the team, and yet, were disproportionately counted on to make plays.

Sherman has shown an overall propensity to throw the ball. I have creative differences with Sherman's play-calling last year, namely the fact that Reggie Bush, arguably a top 3 RB receiving threat in the entire league, was rarely involved in the passing game. He was rarely split out wide or in the slot, despite being a mismatch against almost any LB the NFL has to offer. The only time Reggie Bush had less targets or receptions in any of his seasons in the NFL was in 2010, when he only played 8 games. Mind you, he played 15 and 16 games for the Miami Dolphins in his 2 seasons. Aside from creative differences, Sherman shows a propensity to throw (I'm too lazy to list ALL the research on his seasons as offensive coordinator, so you'll just have to trust me). But I can only assume you had a stretch of play calls last year that left you a bit befuddled...Either way, he disproportionately calls the pass (over the course of his career), lacked imaginative play-calling (say what you will about the supporting cast, but I have never heard of lackluster talent requiring the play-calling to be vanilla and fairly predictable...if anything I would assume the opposite), and didn't use the strengths of the pass offense that he had in his arsenal in 2012. This worries me.

The Dolphins have upgraded the passing attack significantly with Mike Wallace, the re-signing of Hartline, Brandon Gibson, and Dustin Keller. One would expect that the Dolphins' 54% pass ratio would increase fairly drastically. Now I know we are not in the Super Bowl conversation, so I don't expect us to compare to previous Super Bowl winners. What I DO need to know is that Sherman has a stance towards the running game. Whether Lamar Miller be the workhorse or we have a committee, I just want to see a substantial focus on running the ball. Running the ball does a number of things, but mainly to keep defenses off-balance by virtue of being balanced. Running the ball opens up play action and bootlegs, which both suit Ryan Tannehill's strengths. Running the ball keeps our defense fresh. Running the ball makes our offensive line happy - if our OL can get to the second level, running the ball might just create some big plays, too. At any rate, going forward, our team needs to show they are capable of running the ball effectively, especially when we have a lead, especially in the 4th quarter, especially when we need a first down late in the game to run out the clock. This is on Mike Sherman - it's on the players, but it's also on the coach calling the plays and putting players in position to execute a play.

Perhaps I'm overlooking something in these statistics, perhaps I'm underestimating Mike Sherman, perhaps I'm putting too much faith in Lamar Miller's abilities to do it single-handedly. But gosh darnit, I want to see our running game evolve into a juggernaut because, I want to see us be able to run the ball consistently, at any juncture in the game. I want to see us take a lead into the 4th quarter and milk the clock, I want to see us utilize play-action to its fullest advantage, I want to see a RB not dancing around at the line of scrimmage. This is not a 4 yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era, but our running game holds the key (aside from Tannehill's progression) as to whether we are a playoff team or not. Aside from other models in the NFL, I want to see the Miami Dolphins count on their running game as a heavy source of production. Lamar Miller averaged over 5 yards a carry last year. Although he only had 51 attempts, there's a good chance he can carry over that production to the next year and the coaching staff, players, and Miller himself have lofty expectations of what he can accomplish. Let's not forget about the running game!!!

So is it really trendy to throw the ball a bunch as all the "experts" will tell you? Or is it to create a well-established run game as the statistics will tell you?

Your thoughts?

Go Dolphins, and I love you all.

via prod.static.dolphins.clubs.nfl.com

Enter Mike Sherman.

So is it really trendy to throw the ball a bunch as all the "experts" will tell you? Or is it to create a well-established run game as the statistics will tell you?

Your thoughts?

Go Dolphins, and I love you all.

Worried about the Dolphins chemistry? Don't be.

SUTTON — Sat, 01 Jun 2013 22:32:57 -0000

Human beings are full of excuses: why we didn't pay the bill on time, why we got fat, why we can't give up porn, why we don't have a better job, why we keep hanging out with "that" guy (Alpha). Moral of the story? We are all full of sh*t, and we try to justify things to ourself that don't necessarily translate to reality. I am a teacher so I hear excuses every single day - some of them annoying, some downright comical.

Here's my favorite of all-time:

(talking to Raj, a very polite, 11 year-old Indian kid during a tutoring session...just assume he sounds exactly like Apu from The Simpsons)

Me: "Umm, Raj, you started off the session great, but you are struggling with your focus. What's up, buddy?"

Raj: "I have pooped on myself, Mr. Aaron."

Me: "Raj, you are 11! Are you feeling OK? What's going on?"

Raj: "I am so sorry, Mr. Aaron. I have trusted a fart that I shouldn't have."

Where am I going with this? Simple. We are making excuses for why the Dolphins won't succeed this year and the #1 excuse I see permeating the Phinsider is the perceived lack of chemistry that we will have. The "realists" will have you cater expectations of what we can accomplish in 2013 based on this premise, and I'm here to tell you it's all bologna.

Quick Fact #1: Here is the roster turnover from the end of the 2009 season to the end of the 2011 season, by division... NFC West: 139 AFC East: 120 NFC East: 118 AFC North: 115 NFC North: 112 AFC West: 109 NFC South: 108 AFC South: 107

What's my point with all this? Every year, every team undergoes roster change. Players come, players go. This is the nature of the beast. Good teams make fewer changes, granted - and bad teams, must make more changes. Where do you think we fit in this spectrum? We have been bad and we HAD to make changes. But it's not like it was an entire roster overhaul. We had almost exactly the same roster movements as the 2012 Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens (8 vs. 6 FA additions, 4 vs. 6 FA losses, 4 vs. 4 re-signings, and 2 vs. 4 releases). So it's not an argument about roster turnover, it's an argument about talent, which is why we made moves like replacing Sean Smith with Brent Grimes, replacing ~~Chad Johnson~~, ~~Legedu Naanee~~, ~~Jabar Gaffney~~, Davone Bess with Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson, replacing Anthony Fasano with Dustin Keller and Dion Sims. We made changes because we had to, but there is a misconception that moving parts means we must wait a year or two to see the prize at the bottom of the cereal box. Which bring me to...

Quick Fact #2: The Seattle Seahawks ended the 2011 season 7-9. They started 2012 with 24 new players, including QB. And made the Playoffs.

I know it's a small sample size. I'm too lazy to do all the research. My point is that each team in the league will have new starters somewhere on the field, some of them homegrown, some of them coming from another team or through the draft. At any rate, they are new starters. It depends on the coaching staff to get them acclimated and it depends on the hard work of the players to put in the time to get acclimated. Both of which the 2013 Miami Dolphins have. Let's take a look at what this means on offense and defense.

Offense: Tyson Clabo, Dustin Keller, Lamar Miller, Mike Wallace, and Brandon Gibson. These players will, presumably, garner extensive playing time. However, you know that adage about correlation? Just because eating ice cream and drowning are correlated doesn't mean the two cause each other. There's a 3rd variable at play: the summer. Just the same...just because we have new starters doesn't mean they won't know what they are doing - there's a 3rd variable at play: Ryan Tannehill. From all reports, Tannehill has taken his leadership to another level. He had a minor jab at Tom Brady through Twitter about working with his teammates during the off-season before him. Of any WR he "clicked" with during the 2012 season, it was undoubtedly Brian Hartline. Oh yeah, I forgot, Brian Hartline was out the entire off-season and pre-season due to a variety of injuries and illnesses (appendectomy). They turned out just fine. Just imagine what he can do with Keller, Wallace, and Gibson with an entire off-season, OTA, training camp, and pre-season. Tannehill will punch his time card, and he will demand all the others do the same. There's a reason guys like Brees, Manning, and Brady can seemingly have anyone on their team and succeed - it's because they lead and get everyone on the same page. Tannehill isn't doing all the talking, but he is certainly doing all the walking. 5 new starters? Eh, doesn't worry me. Clabo is a 32 year-old vet, Lamar Miller has been in our system, and Keller, Wallace, and Gibson are meeting with Tannehill on a daily basis.

Defense: Brent Grimes, Dannell Ellerbe, Philip Wheeler, Dion Jordan, Jamar Taylor. I include Jordan and Taylor simply because I want them to start, but there's no guarantee that they do. But anyway, any rookie has roughly the same learning curve that these two do. They are expected to start, but so are 60-some rookies across the league. Ellerbe, by my estimation, has the most difficult transition if simply because he is expected to be a leader on the defense. Wake will be THE leader, but a MLB unquestionably has a big role on the performance of a D. Ellerbe has publicly acknowledged that communication will be the #1 factor in determining how the defense comes together. The fact that he's aware of it means that he will do what it takes to make sure that it happens. Perhaps I'm taking a leap of faith with this, but Philbin has admired his work ethic and being a student of the game. And it's not like he's alone: he has the team's leader in sacks (Wake) and the team's leader in INT's (Jones) to help make the transition. Wheeler entered a new system in 2012 and had his best year yet. Grimes has shown every indication of returning from his injury to be a free agency steal, returning to his old form. He's at the very least a solid veteran.

My opinion? It's not the roster changes and the chemistry thereof that concern me. It all comes back to the QB position. There's a reason that Brees, Brady, and Manning can go through roster change or go to new teams and succeed. I'm not saying that Tannehill is in the same breath with these 3 because that would be absurd expectations, but I am saying that he will be the mitigating factor in how we transition. Our defense has exciting possibilities. Vernon, Wake, Jordan, Ellerbe, and Wheeler can all rush the passer with Starks being a darkhorse. Soliai, Starks, Ellerbe, Wake, and Misi are excellent run stuffers. Grimes, Taylor, Marshall, and Davis are a capable dime package. Jones, Clemons, and McCray are a stout safety group. We can finally cover TE's and RB's out of the backfield, rush the passer, be stout against the run, match up against a variety of WR's, and hopefully, cause some turnovers and make plays.

It will be whether we put up points or not, and that rides on Tannehill. Of our 2 major areas of weakness from last year it was pass offense and pass defense. We signed the #1 FA in WR Mike Wallace, spent a #3 pick on a freakish DE athlete that compares to DeMarcus Ware and Jason Pierre-Paul (Sports Science link on Dion Jordan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGIje72yCX4), and followed that up with a pro-ready CB in Jamar Taylor. We signed a guy that the Ravens were desperate to have in Dannell Ellerbe (and I don't know about you but I want any guy the Ravens want desperately on their defense) and a former Pro-Bowler in Brent Grimes. Couple that with Keller, Gibson, and Wheeler, and we have finally upgrade the talent. But NOTHING we do this year will be because of a lack of chemistry. That's just an excuse. There's no reason a group of professionals can't come together in 5 months to be on the same page.

In my eyes, the expectations I have for the 2013 season doesn't depend on chemistry amongst the players, because I think we have a strong locker room and strong coaching staff already. It doesn't depend on the potentially 10 new starters we have. It depends on one guy, and he's already been here. His name is Ryan Tannehill. And if I were a betting man, I would say we're in a good spot.

SUTTON gets negative?!?!

SUTTON — Sat, 25 May 2013 22:39:28 -0000

via prod.images.browns.clubs.nflcdn.com

Ok, Ok. I know what you are thinking. "Wait, isn't SUTTON the guy who tells us that we will win the AFC East? Isn't he the guy who rushes to the Dolphins aide anytime a media critic has something negative to say? Isn't he the guy who lets Alpha flirt with his pregnant wife 24/7?" All true. But if anything, I care about my reputation here at the Phinsider and it's time I prove it. Although, I admit, I am more on the optimistic side of things no matter what. But in my defense, I believe I am a realist and will support anything I have to say with facts, or at the very least, educated conjecture. Which bring me to...

The Cleveland Browns.

Ugh.

You might be rolling your eyes. I mean, c'mon, it's the Browns. They suck. But let me tell you why this 1st game of the season really worries me. And it's NOT because I think we will lack chemistry.

I have lived in Ohio my entire life, so I am relegated to going to the closest possible Dolphins games. I have attended the last 4 Dolphins-Browns games and the results are quite pathetic. 2005. Reuben Droughns runs for a 75-yd TD on the very first play from scrimmage for the Browns. Gus Frerotte was our QB. Trent Dilfer did everything he wanted against us. Trent Dilfer. A 5 year-old heckled me the entire game. Browns 22, Dolphins 0. Personal aside: I got so drunk that game that I fell asleep on the train taking me back to my buddy's house and ended up 4 cities over from where I was supposed to be. I mean, how drunk would you get if Reuben Droughns and Trent Dilfer owned your team?!

2007. A high-scoring game and the Dolphins were within 3 going into the 4th after being down 17 at halftime, but Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards proved to be too much. Let that sink in for a moment. Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards. Browns 41-Dolphins 31. Personal aside: The 5 year-old, now a 7 year-old, told me that the Dolphins play like girls (I went with a buddy who had season tickets and the same family sat next to us).

2010. Jake Delhomme out-dueled Chad Henne (QB match-up of the century) and the Browns won a fairly boring game. Chad Henne threw 3 INT's and Phil Dawson kicked the game winner as time expired, 13-10. Personal aside: I tailgated with that same Cleveland buddy, and one of his friends seemed really nice. He came up to me before the game and said, "Hey, good luck, dude. Glad you were able to join us." And he patted me on the back. What a nice guy, I thought. Lo and behold, I walked through the entire stadium with a "KICK ME" sign on my back for the whole game. I wondered where the random bursts of laughter were coming from.

2011. I thought this was our year to beat the Browns. The game was close, but halfway through the 3rd quarter we started to assert our dominance running the ball and moving the chains. I felt confident to run my mouth. I had a Screech Diamond (from Saved by the Bell) wig on and an overall annoying outfit that brought unnecessary attention to myself, and I was not hesitant to share with the sea of brown and orange around me what I thought of Colt McCoy and his redneck, rebel-flag persona. I may have cursed around children. Then, in a blink of an eye, Yosemite Sam threw a TD to Massaquoi in the back corner of the end zone and took the lead with only seconds to play. In an instant, a dozen Browns fans turned around, pointed their finger at me and said what they had to say, and my wife quickly left to let me drown in the bed that I had made. My sister pretended like she didn't know me. Head down and penis seriously deflated, I dragged my feet out of the stadium, but at least I didn't have a "KICK ME" sign on my back. Browns 17-Dolphins 16. Personal aside: Thank God for weed or I might have cried.

The moral of the story? Don't take the Browns for granted. Browns Stadium will be absolutely packed with rabid fans - we will be in a most hostile environment right out of the gate. Our 1st 5 games of the 2013 season are: @ CLE, @ IND, vs. ATL, @ NO, vs. BALT. It gets a little better from there on out, but we run the gauntlet from the get-go. It's important that we win this 1st game to not only set the tone for the entire season, but it's one of "those" games that you MUST win to be a playoff team. I see no scenario where we lose to the Browns and get in the playoffs. If we lose to the Browns, it's very possible we start the season 0-5. I like to believe that we can beat the Colts, seeing as how it should've happened last year (damn TY Hilton bomb in double coverage). But there's no reason to think they won't beat us again. The Browns are goal #1, and really, the only goal we should have at this point. To win in the NFL, you have to take the season as a game-by-game approach, and it starts with the Cleveland Browns. We came out against Houston last year and looked abysmal. If we start off that way in 2013, what we look like on paper won't matter so much, because we are looking at yet another mediocre season. The Browns may have an unsettled QB situation, but they have one of the best RB's in the league in Trent Richardson, an improved pass rush, a solid OL, an improved LB corps (Paul Kruger), and a guy by the name of Davone Bess. I have no doubt that Davone Bess will put his best foot forward to prove to the Dolphins why they were dumb to trade him. Josh Gordon and Greg Little on top of that, and all of a sudden, we are in a fight. A fight that we must win to win the marathon that is the NFL season. The playoffs in 2013 begins with the Cleveland Browns, week 1. This is the game that will show us fans what we have in store for the 2013 season...I just hope that I'm not being heckled by a now 13 year-old kid. He might have something more clever to say.

Take care everyone, and wish me luck on brainwashing my son into being a Dolphins fan! Go Fins!

via prod.images.browns.clubs.nflcdn.com

The Cleveland Browns.

Ugh.

You might be rolling your eyes. I mean, c'mon, it's the Browns. They suck. But let me tell you why this 1st game of the season really worries me. And it's NOT because I think we will lack chemistry.

Take care everyone, and wish me luck on brainwashing my son into being a Dolphins fan! Go Fins!

Tearing apart Jason La Canfora, brick by brick.

SUTTON — Sun, 19 May 2013 01:25:15 -0000

Dudes. My son's due date is in 10 days. Trust me, I have wayyyy more important stuff to be doing. But when I saw comments from Jason La Canfora recently, I felt obligated to retort on behalf of the Dolphins community. For anyone who doesn't know me, I'm a frequent poster and responder, but have gotten lackadaisical with the, ummm, oh, I forget. Oh yeah, the birth of my son. Anyway, here is what he said, and here is what I think about what he said. Take it for what it's worth.

On cbssports.com, Jason listed his 3 "surprises" and 3 "disappointments" for the upcoming football season. Of all the 32 NFL teams, Miami ended up on his short "disappointment" list (Kansas City and Minnesota being the other 2).

No team has been flashier since the start of free agency in March, loading up on free agents, throwing cash around and then making a bold trade up to the third overall pick in draft to nab Dion Jordan.

Yeah, I'm sure the goal of Jeff Ireland's offseason was to be as "flashy" as possible. Hey, why the hell not, let's throw some cash around. Let's aimlessly throw money at players and see what happens. See my point? Just because you spend a lot of money doesn't mean you intend to do it recklessly. Is their historical evidence of this? Yes. Just look at the Washington Redskins. At the same time, look at the SF 49ers. They went from 5-11 to an NFL Champsionship game in one regime change. Getting new players (or coaches) and spending money for them does not equal a PR stunt, as Mr. La Canfora would have you believe. We needed players, and to get players, you need to spend money. This is sensationalization at its finest. We spend the most money in free agency, therefore we are flashy. I don't see the connection. We are trying to field a good football team, and good players cost money. There is a faulty correlation that he is spreading, and it is this: if you spend a lot of money in free agency, it will not equate to wins. He is basing EVERYTHING on this assumption. Oh, and trading up to 3 is "bold" when you only trade a 2nd rounder for it? I would say it's dumb for NOT doing it. Trading from 12 to 3 for a 2nd rounder, by EVERY calculation I have seen, is one of the biggest steals in draft history. DRAFT HISTORY. Let that sink in. If you think it's bold to pay a dollar for a filet mignon, then I think you have the wrong definition of the word "bold." All of this depends on Dion Jordan being a player worthy of the #3 selection. I have no doubts that he is fully worth that selection...

I'm just not sure how much better they're going to be. Questions remain at left tackle and in the secondary and in the running game, to name a few. Suddenly there is a buzz about this being a team on the rise and ready to enter the playoff equation.

So, you aren't sure how much better they will be, but you are willing to label them a "disappointment"? If you aren't sure, if I were an "expert", then I would leave them off my list. But here we are. Questions remain at left tackle? We have Jonathan Martin, and I would agree that this IS a question mark...but not so much of a question mark that I am willing to label the entire Dolphins team a "disappointment" over 31 other NFL teams. There are "ifs" in the secondary, but we have a lot of escape routes when it comes to these "ifs". My assumption: either Richard Marshall or Brent Grimes will man 1 starting spot, and Jamar Taylor or Marshall/Grimes/Will Davis will man the other starting spot. The remaining will compete for nickel and dime duties, not to mention we have Patterson and Carroll. We have "ifs", but so does every other NFL team at this position. This is a kind of position where no one is EVER satisfied - too many passes happen in the NFL to be complacent at this position. But we are by no means a disappointment in this category. By my estimation, we have answers at CB, not questions. We have a former Pro Bowler (Grimes), a CB that some experts believe COULD be a Pro Bowler (Marshall), and 2 rookies that are "more polished than Vontae and Sean Smith" at rookie minicamps (Taylor and Davis). We have no more questions at CB than any other team, yet it's cause to label us a "disappointment." Questions in the running game assume that Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, and Mike Gillislee won't be able to carry the torch. Lamar Miller had almost 5 yards per carry; Daniel Thomas is on my black list of people to axe as soon as they screw up again so I can't say anything positive about him; Mike Gillislee demonstrates good WC skills in a running back. But, again, I don't see an up-and-coming RB followed by an adequate rookie and a sketchy veteran as a "disappointment". Am I happy? No. But am I disappointed? No. The Jets just had their #1 RB arrested and will possibly be released from the team, and yet, WE are the disappointment. Interesting. Frankly, all it tells me is that Mr. La Canfora didn't watch Lamar Miller run last year. He is decisive, a perfect fit for a zone blocking scheme, and has the speed and quickness to elude tacklers.

Usually, when you bring in this much outside talent, it either doesn't take at all, or it takes more than a year to click. We'll see how Ryan Tannehill progresses in his second season as their quarterback and if there is a leadership void with guys like Karlos Dansby no longer around.

This much outside talent? So we bring in 2 WR's and 2 LB's, and it's an entire off-season purge? Clabo is an OL, so I don't even count him in this assessment. Grimes wasn't wanted by his former team for the price he was asking for. Wallace and Gibson have been working with Tannehill off the clock for hours a day getting prepared for the season. Every NFL team brings in multiple new people to invigorate and rejuvenate, as well as provide competition for every position on the roster. Yet, this same tactic is used to demonstrate Miami as a "disappointment." Since when was Karlos Dansby our leader? He was outspoken, sure. Talked wayyyy too much. I want Tannehill to be our leader, and he is already doing that by example, not by getting diarrhea of the mouth through the media. Tannehill will be a baller in year 2, mark my words.

I still don't see them being any real threat to the Patriots in the AFC East, and with teams like the Colts and Bengals still likely in the wild card scene, I don't see Miami unseating anyone being much more than an 8-8 team at best. Not sure there is enough bite on defense surrounding Cameron Wake, and not sure this team will be able to grind out wins down the stretch.

Interesting. So a team the Dolphins beat last year (Bengals) and SHOULD HAVE beat (Colts...remember that TY Hilton catch in double coverage to win the game?) are firmly entrenched in the Wild Card scene? Not enough bite on defense? We were top half of the league in sacks, and will only get better with the addition of Dion Jordan. Kacy Rodgers, our DL coach, is the BEST DL coach in the entire league. Look at what he's produced with Wake (CFL), Soliai (4th round), Starks (3rd round), and Odrick/Vernon (1st/3rd round). We have one of the best DL's in the NFL, and just imagine what a guy like Rodgers can do with a diamond like Dion Jordan. Potential is through the roof. Not to mention the effect that our improved pass rush will have on our secondary. Not able to grind out wins? Tannehill did it against the Seahawks. Does Jason La Canfora know how resilient and determined this team will be to close out games down the stretch in 2013? Fack no. He has an opinion. I just think that opinion is stupid and illogical.

No team has been flashier since the start of free agency in March, loading up on free agents, throwing cash around and then making a bold trade up to the third overall pick in draft to nab Dion Jordan.

I'm just not sure how much better they're going to be. Questions remain at left tackle and in the secondary and in the running game, to name a few. Suddenly there is a buzz about this being a team on the rise and ready to enter the playoff equation.

Usually, when you bring in this much outside talent, it either doesn't take at all, or it takes more than a year to click. We'll see how Ryan Tannehill progresses in his second season as their quarterback and if there is a leadership void with guys like Karlos Dansby no longer around.

I still don't see them being any real threat to the Patriots in the AFC East, and with teams like the Colts and Bengals still likely in the wild card scene, I don't see Miami unseating anyone being much more than an 8-8 team at best. Not sure there is enough bite on defense surrounding Cameron Wake, and not sure this team will be able to grind out wins down the stretch.

Do you know Superfknmario?

SUTTON — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 23:17:46 -0000

If you do, you would know that he is a bad azzzz mofo. All kidding aside, let me tell you a story about my boy Mario...

A couple weeks ago, Mario and I discussed beer at length. Mario essentially had an intervention with me. Instead of binge drinking light beer, he reasoned, I should replace drinking more beers that are essentially rat piss with ethyl alcohol and drink less beers that are potent and better. Quite a novel concept, I thought. He began to list off some of his favorites, and I began to cry because none of the beers were available where I am from. I literally cried. My pregnant wife had to come over and make sure that somebody didn't die - I made her console me and cook me dinner. It was awesome.

Anyway, I digress.

A package arrived at my doorstep today. My wife called me at work and here is the conversation that took place:

Wife: Ummmm, we got a package from some guy named Mario. Do you know a Mario in Florida? Should I open this? Is it a bomb?

Me: No sweetie! Holy crap I can't believe he actually sent it to me! He sent me some beer, go ahead and open it!

Wife: Well, one is called Hopsecutioner and the other is called Holy Mackerel. He wrapped it up in like 3 things of bubble wrap. What do you do on that website? Just talk about beer all day with everybody?

Me: Well, I talk about the football team, too. But occasionally, beer comes up.

Wife: Aaron, one of these beers has 10% alcohol in it! 10%! I mean....what kind of beer has 10% alcohol in it?

Me: Mario doesn't f*ck around apparently!!!!

So...long story short....Superfknmario sent me 2 beers, paid FIFTEEN DOLLARS IN SHIPPING TO SEND IT TO ME (on top of the money he spent on the beers themselves), and all because I had no access to it. This, fellas, is what this website is all about. Mario, if you are out there, brother, your generosity will never be forgotten. I can only hope to repay your kindness in the future. You name it, dude. Only a quality guy would do something like this. So from now on, if Mario has anything, ANYTHING, to say at all, you "rec" it, no matter how ridiculous it sounds. Mario, if you are out there, man, I appreciate it! Go Dolphins and go Superfknmario!!!!

If you do, you would know that he is a bad azzzz mofo. All kidding aside, let me tell you a story about my boy Mario...

Anyway, I digress.

A package arrived at my doorstep today. My wife called me at work and here is the conversation that took place:

Wife: Ummmm, we got a package from some guy named Mario. Do you know a Mario in Florida? Should I open this? Is it a bomb?

Me: No sweetie! Holy crap I can't believe he actually sent it to me! He sent me some beer, go ahead and open it!

Me: Well, I talk about the football team, too. But occasionally, beer comes up.

Wife: Aaron, one of these beers has 10% alcohol in it! 10%! I mean....what kind of beer has 10% alcohol in it?

Me: Mario doesn't f*ck around apparently!!!!

Why the Dolphins will overtake the Patriots THIS year

SUTTON — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 22:58:57 -0000

via prod.static.patriots.clubs.nfl.com

Like you, my first instinct is to go drink a beer and punch a wall when I see this face. It seems like ever since I can remember, I see Massholes guaranteeing their prominence and parading through the streets in victory and Dolphins fans, well, we've been sitting on the couch for weeks now because we aren't relevant when it comes playoff time. We get to listen to ESPN and other media outlets glorify them in every sense, even when they don't deserve it. Even when they LOSE in the playoffs, their draft picks are heralded, ours are questionable, and no matter the state of their roster, they ALWAYS have a chance when this guy above is under center. Belicheck is always a genius, their rotating carousel of coordinators is never a concern because, hey, they've got Brady and Belicheck. Here's my argument for why we take them down, not down the road sometime, but RIGHT NOW.

THE LOSS OF WES WELKER

Ever since he left our team, we have not been able to match up with Wes Welker with anybody on our roster. The Monday Night game where he caught a 99-yd TD still haunts my dreams and elicits instant vomit-in-the-mouth. Brady and Welker had an ESP-like connection and it was irritating to see them get in 3rd and 13 and still be able to consistently get 1st downs against us. I could call the play half-drunk (ridiculously drunk) from the bar, and yet, we still would not be able to stop it. But, hey, that's OK because they signed Danny Amendola - and just about every media expert has LOVED this move (shocking). But let's take a glance, shall we? First of all, he had 666 yards receiving last year. 666? Not a coincidence! He's never had more than 689 yards and/or 3 TD's in a season...but by all means, he is perfectly capable of replacing a perennial 100-catch, 1,300 yd, ~6 TD per year kind of receiver. Oh, and I forgot to mention that only once in 4 years has Amendola played a full 16-game season. But hey, they both went to Texas Tech (Welker and Amendola), so obviously this has GOT to work in the Patriots favor...

WE HAVE AN OFFENSE THAT CAN CAPITALIZE ON THEIR DEFENSE

Specifically, their pass defense. But the teams that beat them last year, beat them with BALANCE. I'm still not ready to get into an aerial assault and expect us to win, but with balance, we will win. The 1st game we played: 321 to 277 total yards. The 2nd game we played: 443 to 256. What was the difference? RUNNING THE BALL. In the 1st game we had over 100 - SF, Baltimore, and (almost) Seattle had over a 100 yards running, each team beating NE in the regular season. And yet, despite running the ball that 1st game admirably, we couldn't get over the hump if simply because we couldn't exploit them through the air. Now it's different. Dustin Keller had 2 TD's last year. Who did he have them against? New England. Both of them. Add Mike Wallace, Hartline, Bess, and Gibson (and possibly a rookie) to the mix, and we finally have a WR and TE corps that can take advantage of their most glaring weakness. We can spread the field, which will help us run, and also capitalize on 1-on1 match-ups that favor us (which most of them will). When we can run the ball with speed and vision (Lamar Miller) and pass the ball against favorable 1-on-1 match-ups and keep them off-balance with play-action, we keep their offense on the sideline and impede any flow or momentum that they have created up to that point. In a nutshell, we frustrate them.

WE HAVE A DEFENSE THAT MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THEIR OFFENSE

I won't say that we can shut them down, because no defense can. Seattle, Baltimore, and San Francisco beat them in the regular season and gave up 23, 30, and 34 points respectively - and these were some of the better defenses the NFL had to offer. Granted, on paper, New England looks a little weaker on offense, but they will still put up yards and points. We will have to outscore them. But let's at least acknowledge how we can slow them down better. Without Welker, they will undoubtedly rely more on Hernandez and Gronkowski to move the chains. In comes Philip Wheeler. I know some of us scratched our heads a bit with this move, but considering his coverage and blitzing abilities, he has helped us match up better with the Patriots. He has the speed to match up with Hernandez, but also the toughness and run-stuffing ability to match up with Gronk as a blocker. Ellerbe also enhances our run-stuffing capabilities, although it appears he is more of a liability in pass coverage than Dansby. But how does this play out against us? In game 1 against the Patriots last year, 2 people killed us: Welker and Hernandez. Welker is gone, and we have a better coverage LB and (hopefully) a better safety tandem to match up with Hernandez. It's worth mentioning that Gronk did not play. Their TE's still present a problem, but the addition of Wheeler, as well as the subtraction of Welker can help our above-average safeties in Jones and Clemons to sink more into the box and take away their short and intermediate game - their long-range game, by my estimation, is non-existent. The 2nd game against the Patriots? 3 people killed us: Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, and Hernandez. Welker and Woodhead are gone, and Hernandez has been aforementioned. Gronk had 42 yards - granted, he was hobbled. He still presents a match-up problem. 1 match-up problem I can live with, multiple match-up problems is a recipe for disaster. In addition, the best way to beat the Patriots is to get a rush from the front 4 - the 1st game we did, the 2nd game we didn't. Our DL will improve, even if we don't draft anyone. Kacy Rodgers is one (if not THE BEST) DL coach in the league and an eventual Defensive Coordinator. He will maximize the production out of the players in his group and we will only improve over last year. Just imagine if we get a pass-rush specialist to add to this corps. Rodgers will get the best out of him, and we will have a rotation of Wake, Odrick, Vernon, Soliai, Starks, and 1st round rookie to create havoc. Couple in the fact that Wheeler and Ellerbe are 2 of the best blitzing linebackers in the league, and we finally have a recipe to slow down the Patriots offense with pressure.

THE ALLURE OF PATRIOTS PAST IS DYING

Even though New England has not won a Super Bowl since 2005, they've still made the Super Bowl twice, getting beat by the Giants both times. Their clutch factor seems to have dwindled, though. The Ravens have beaten them 3 times in recent memory, 2 times in the playoffs AT FOXBOROUGH, and once at home (last year). The questions surrounding Brady's longevity and clutch factor are requisite. Teams are not scared of them anymore. We went toe-to-toe with them in our 1st game last year during one of the most prolific offensive blitzkriegs in the last decade. We are ready to play them, our coaches are ready to be aggressive, and we finally have a personnel that can match up more favorably (and will only get better through 11 draft picks). Our CB's are still a bit of a question mark, but if Grimes returns to form and/or Marshall returns to form and/or we draft early round CB's - we sit all the more prettier. We can stuff their run, we can match up with their WR's, and we can match up with Hernandez. Gronkowski is still a match-up problem, but with an aggressive coaching staff, we will find ways to minimize his damage.

OUR QB KNOWS WHAT'S AT STAKE

Anybody see the tweet-off between Tannehill and Brady? Tannehill know's what's up. To overthrow the Patriots it takes time, practice, repetition, and hard work with your teammates - all of which he is ready to do. Any coincidence that he has been throwing with his receiver and tight ends before Tom Brady? He is ready to take the quantum leap from rookie QB to legitimate, feared, respected QB. I, for one, love the dedication, leadership, and borderline cockiness that he has taken thus far, especially when you are telling a Hall-of-Famer that he has been working longer (no apologies necessary, bro!). Considering Tannehill's fervor in adapting people to the playbook last year, I can only assume he has equal tenacity in updating all newcomers to the playbook this year. He already has more chemistry with receivers and tight ends than he did with Hartline ALL OF LAST YEAR (due to his multitude of pre-season injuries and illnesses), and I think we can assume that Tannehill and Hartline had a good year together last year. I finally have confidence in a Miami QB to shrug his shoulders when it comes to a Patriots conversation and say, "So what? Now it's our time."

I think our DL can stuff the run and get pressure on Brady. I think our LB's, CB's, and S's are more equipped to stop their aerial attack (and I believe we add to this through the draft). I think we have a front 4 that can get pressure on Brady, only highlighted by excellent blitzing LB's. I think our WR's and TE's can exacerbate their pass defense issues as well as our RB's and zone-blocking scheme to establish the run. I think we have aggressive coaches who will not hesitate to go for it on 4-and-1 (unlike other coaches we've seen). I think we have a special teams unit who can outperform theirs (especially punting and kick-off and punt returns - Thigpen). We have a QB who is not scared to go toe-to-toe with Brady and an overall team attitude that is ready to take it to the next level. The Patriots will have a target on their back all season, and we will be the fleas that jump high enough to reach that big dog and bite it in the face. I'm ready to behead King Joffrey and become King of the Iron Throne. I'm ready to be the perennial AFC East champions! What say you, Dolphins fans?

via prod.static.patriots.clubs.nfl.com

THE LOSS OF WES WELKER

WE HAVE AN OFFENSE THAT CAN CAPITALIZE ON THEIR DEFENSE

WE HAVE A DEFENSE THAT MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THEIR OFFENSE

THE ALLURE OF PATRIOTS PAST IS DYING

OUR QB KNOWS WHAT'S AT STAKE

I challenge you to a mock-off!

SUTTON — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 20:55:08 -0000

And I'm not talking about a mock draft, I'm talking about mocking your favorite Phinsider!

Best impersonation gets, ummmm, an online high-5. Let the festivities begin!

Alpha: "You gotta problem with our tight end? Let me peek in your bedroom window and I will show you a problem with a tight end."

Nete: "Hehehehehe, Alpha said, "Tight end." Hehehehe, I think he's talking about butts."

CT: "Our approach to drafting and utilizing our TE's is all wrong. Who cares that they can't block? We need someone to stretch the legs...I mean field in order to be more explosive in her...I mean in the seam."

Nicky: "I didn't realize there was a TE on our team."

#1Heatfan: "I used to have a tight end until I started eating bread, cakes, and other carbs that made me gain weight. Ugh! I hate gaining weight! I'm in college, I shouldn't be worrying about my figure."

Who you calling out, Phinsiders? Let's see what you're made of!

And I'm not talking about a mock draft, I'm talking about mocking your favorite Phinsider!

Best impersonation gets, ummmm, an online high-5. Let the festivities begin!

Alpha: "You gotta problem with our tight end? Let me peek in your bedroom window and I will show you a problem with a tight end."

Nete: "Hehehehehe, Alpha said, "Tight end." Hehehehe, I think he's talking about butts."

Nicky: "I didn't realize there was a TE on our team."

Who you calling out, Phinsiders? Let's see what you're made of!

The NFL draft is like....March Madness?

SUTTON — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 00:20:13 -0000

I see a lot of arguments based on what players should be drafted where. Certain players are pegged within a 5-pick continuum. Draft value at a particular position (say Trufant at #12) is highly debated - players who are a "reach" or a "steal". We seem to have a notion of what a player is worth. Hell, I'm guilty of it myself - it's fun to debate what a player is worth. But why? Does anybody else find this a bit absurd? Here's the thing, NO ONE KNOWS. Not Kiper, McShay, NFL GM's, Mayock, Kevin Nogle, me, you, or Alpha's live-in boyfriend. NO ONE. Am I crazy to think of the draft as more of a lottery than a science? Let me elaborate.

Here's my point: every single year, EVERY SINGLE YEAR, someone from the 5th round and beyond turns into one of the elite players in the NFL. Every single year, someone from the 1st round turns bad, sometimes even the #1 overall pick turns out to completely suck. That's why people who are paid millions of dollars, have been around football their whole life, wake up at 4 a.m. to watch tape, and are a part of a committee of scouts, personnel evaluators, psychologists, and so on that does some of the most exhaustive research of any enterprise of any company in the entire world CAN GET IT WRONG. Why? Why might you ask? They have privvy to the most sophisticated statistics, matrices, metrics, family background, college/high school coach interviews, personal interviews, personal workouts, pro days, the Combine, etc.. No matter how scientific we want this process to be, you cannot measure what is inside a person: their will to succeed, the chip on their shoulder, their leadership, etc.. By virtue of not being measurable, it is not scientific. But we so desperately want it to be.

Which brings me back to the lottery. I think this is the paradigm to view the draft. None of this is science, as much as draft experts want you to believe and the millions spent on the industry suggests, because why would you watch somebody claim this and that if they couldn't base their assertions on science? If it were all a big guess, then nobody would care about what the "experts" think, much the same as there is not fantasy "Pick 4" or fantasy "MegaMillions" advice from Ed McMahon. But in the back of our mind, we all know it's true. We know it's a big lottery. How else do you explain the crazy circumstances that have arisen from the draft? It's luck. Say it with me. You think New England did more research on Tom Brady than any other team? You think Miami was the only ballsy team in the NFL willing to draft an undersized LB from Texas Tech in the 5th round? Want more recent evidence? Just look at the top-10 in the 2009 NFL draft. Other than Stafford, who else was worthy of a top-10 pick (Crabtree, maybe)? And yet in this very same draft, the following players were selected: Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jairus Byrd (now into the 2nd round players), ~~Pat White,~~ Andy Levitre, Lesean McCoy, Sebastian Vollmer, Louis Vasquez (now into the 3rd round players), Mike Wallace, Lardarius Webb, Jared Cook, Brian Hartline (now into the 4th round players)...you see my point? It doesn't matter who you draft where, it just matters that you get the player right. And whether you get the player right has a high degree of luck and a little bit of marriage with what you have seen on film, the research you have gathered (I'm not willing to admit that science has NOTHING to do with it, just very, very little), and how he fits with your schemes and locker room. You might reasonably predict how they mesh with a scheme, but you almost never know how they will mesh with the locker room. And you can NEVER know what kind of productivity you will get, no matter how many of the stars are aligned.

So how do you get the best players if it's not all science? The same way you increase the likelihood of winning a lottery game: you get more lottery tickets. In our case, you get as many draft picks as you can. Here's what we do know: in every draft, there will be a few Pro Bowl Players, there might even be a couple of Hall-of-Fame players, a small percentage will be starters, a decent percentage will be quality depth and eventual starters, but MOST players will never pan out and never be relevant. Of course, you rationalize, we should get as many 1st-round picks so we can get those Pro Bowlers and Hall-of-Famers, Sutton! Consider the following:

Of the 319 first-round picks taken in the last 10 years (I should clarify, this considers the 2002-2011 draft), 98 made at least one Pro Bowl (31%); 55 made multiple Pro Bowls (17%).

So less than 1 in 3 Round 1 prospects get even 1 Pro Bowl; less than 1 in 5 make it to Hawaii even twice. If you assume that a 1st rounder is a can't-miss, you are fooling yourself, because only 5 or 6 teams on average get that caliber of player in the 1st round. In other words, only 5 or 6 teams will draft a 1st rounder that lives up to expectations. When you consider position-by-position (for 1 Pro Bowl), it ranges from Safety 56.2% (9 of 16) to Defensive End 17% (7 of 41). Quarterback, you ask? 9 of 30, for 30%. When you consider position-by-position for multiple Pro Bowls, it ranges from Guard 42.8% (3 of 7) to Tight End 7.6% (1 of 13). The 4 positions with the most players selected in these 10 drafts were DE, CB, OT, and WR, none of which fared well at all in terms of producing Pro Bowl Players. Quarterback, again, you ask? 80% of those selected in the 1st round will not go to multiple Pro Bowls. Regardless of position, the chances of finding a Pro Bowl player, let alone a multiple Pro Bowl player, is very, very lucky. I'm sorry for using math and science to disprove that science is stupid. I'm sure it's full of round-about logic (like killing people to show that killing people is wrong) and frustrates you stone-cold logicians out there, but I had to make a point that you would understand. I used science to show that science doesn't cut it when it comes to the NFL draft. So sue me. Getting a good player in the draft has little to do with pre-draft rankings, it's really, mostly, luck. Sorry.

Which brings me back to the lottery. Although 1st rounders do better at achieving Pro Bowl status, it is not as disproportionate as you would think compared to the other rounds. This is essentially a quantity vs. quality argument, because the only thing we can do is get as many picks as we can and hope that we get the Pro Bowl or Hall-of-Fame franchise-changing player that we want. If 26 or 27 out of the 32 NFL teams picking get it wrong in the 1st round, year after year, then it's most prudent to get the most picks that you can and hope that you get it right. Just compare San Francisco's 15 picks with the Colts' 6. Assuming they put in relatively the same research and no team has more clairvoyance than the other, the 49ers have 9 more chances of getting it "right", 9 more lottery numbers in trying to reveal that elusive Pro Bowler. The 49ers have roughly 1 in every 21 picks in the draft (15 picks out of 324 total picks), whereas an average team would have approximately 8 picks in that same time frame (or 1 in 40 picks). Would you rather have a lottery ticket where your chance of winning was 1 in 21, or 1 in 40?

This doesn't even include the undrafted players who make it in the league like James Harrison, Davone Bess, and, oh, what's his name, Kurt Warner. Holy crap! The same team misses out on a player SEVERAL times. Remember that 2009 draft I was talking about? The Bills 1st selection? Aaron Maybin. Their 2 2nd rounders? Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd. San Diego's 1st rounder? Larry English. Their 3rd rounder? Louis Vasquez. My point? Every team makes mistakes, but sometimes redeem themselves later. Some teams get it right in the 1st, and strike out everywhere else. Some teams just strike out, period. But with a ton of picks, the chances of getting some good players just get a little bit better. The NFL draft makes no sense, ESPECIALLY when you look at it in hindsight. What the hell were teams thinking? Were there scouts any worse than the others? Was their GM that much more Yoda-like than the others? The most brilliant GM's have made some ridiculous picks, and ridiculous GM's have made some brilliant picks. That's the nature of the NFL draft: it's erratic, it follows no order or logic, it's essentially chaotic. In other words, it's the lottery.

Boy, am I glad we have 11 picks! Go Dolphins!

Of the 319 first-round picks taken in the last 10 years (I should clarify, this considers the 2002-2011 draft), 98 made at least one Pro Bowl (31%); 55 made multiple Pro Bowls (17%).

Boy, am I glad we have 11 picks! Go Dolphins!

Mid-round and late-round picks at positions of need

SUTTON — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 19:18:02 -0000

By my estimation, here are the Miami Dolphins needs as of March 17th at 3:20 p.m.

2 CB's (one could even argue 3)

2 OT's (one could argue 1)

1 TE (one could argue 0)

1 OG (one cannot argue)

Cases could be made for RB, S, and DE as well. But I consider the aforementioned 4 more pressing, because we need starters at these positions (CB), or significant competition for the incumbent (OT, OG, TE).

Things to consider:

1. If Long signs with St. Louis, we have an immediate need for a starter at T, as well as an unproven LT in Jonathan Martin. Even if Yeatman is some secret OT assassin, we still need to have competition with Martin and/or depth for the both of them.

2. Our CB play cost us at least 2 games last year (Arizona, 4th and 10 ring a bell? Indianapolis, a double team gets usurped by a stumblin', fumblin', bumblin' Sean Smith and allows TY a most egregious TD). And this unit has gotten worse. I know there is still time to salvage a good CB corps, whether it be a free agent and draft picks, or multiple draft picks. But this situation has me downright scared about 2013. We need a serious game plan.

3. John Jerry was painfully average last year - and that might even be a compliment. Competition is necessary for him to either A) bring out the best in him, or B) find his replacement. Incognito is in the last year of his contract.

4. We signed Keller, but he's a stop-gap solution at this point. Clay and Egnew are still unknown, and Clay is running out of opportunities to prove that he can be consistent. With a Keller/Clay/Egnew group we have probably the worst blocking TE's in the league. We need a multi-dimensional TE so defenses actually have to guess whether the TE is going to stay in and block, or go out on a route. It would be nice to occasionally keep the defense off-balance when a TE is in the game.

5. A bag of potato chips is sooooooo much better than a bag of popcorn. I don't even know why popcorn is that popular. It's either movie-theater propaganda/brainwashing or it's the fact that you can stuff half a bag of popcorn into your mouth at once and get multiple kernels smashed into your clothes and it's somehow socially acceptable and even revered.

6. Having one of those dreams where you can take control and direct what happens next is one of the coolest things ever. You can take the weirdness to a new level, get revenge, be friends with somebody famous, or find a way to have sex with everybody. Or you can have a dream where you were walking down the street completely naked except for a necktie, get revenge against the bully from middle school (he was wearing clothes, what a loser), run into Dave Chappelle on the street and go to the strip club with him, and (wouldn't you know it) all the strippers want to have sex with you! Crazy how that works. Either way it's pretty sweet.

OK, I digress.....

Here are some mid- and late-round prospects I have circled in case the Dolphins strike out in free agency and the 1st 3 rounds of the draft....Also....please keep in mind that these are 4th-round talents and beyond. Each and every one of them will have question marks and weaknesses, but yet, year after year, some of these guys become quality players in the league.

OT:

Reid Fragel, ~5th round, Ohio State. A converted TE (played TE his 1st 3 years at OSU) that has the athleticism, quickness, and ability to add muscle without comprimising lateral agility (he added 20 pounds between his junior and senior year and retained all of his quickness. Scouts believe he can add another 20 pounds to his frame easily.) He was Honorable Mention All-Big 10 in the only year he has ever played the position. His technique is at times sloppy and he has trouble recognizing disguised blitzes and stunts. However, I think these are coachable things.

David Quessenberry, ~4/5th round, San Jose St. Rated just below Johnson and Fisher at the Senior Bowl. He can play both guard and tackle, has great quickness, and shows his chops in pass blocking. He's usually referred to as "polished", which usually means he has a low ceiling. However, most scouts have him rated as a consistent OT who projects as a RT in the league. His versatility could also have him play G, although he would need to add a little weight, but has the athleticism necessary for the zone-blocking scheme.

Ricky Wagner, ~5/6th round, Wisconsin. A Division-1 basketball player who decided to walk-on at Wisconsin. He is used to having to prove himself. Wisconsin also has a great track record of developing OL talent at the NFL level. He played on both sides while at Wisconsin, protecting Russell Wilson's blindside (earning Honorable Mention all-Big 10 in the process). Not fast enough to play LT, but has the long arms, short-area quickness, and technique to develop into a quality RT. According to scouts, he has limited upside, but could serve as quality depth on the OL.

CB:

Leon McFadden, ~3/4th round, San Diego State. A consistent producer, and one of 5 players in team history to be voted 1st-team all-conference in 3 straight years. Fluid feet and hips, allowing him to change directions quickly. Fearless competitor and team leader. Excellent experience and more-than-adequate production. Father was a MLB player so comes with pro-ready demeanor. Inconsistent as a press-cover and size can affect him with bigger receivers - does his best work off-man or in space.

Terry Hawthorne, ~4th/5th round, Illinois. Speed and ball-hawking ability are top-shelf. Reads and reacts in a flash to jump routes. Sometimes is too aggressive in coverage and doesn't always finish the interception. Quick learner, aggressive competitor, and physical in run support.

Johnny Adams, ~6th/7th round, Michigan State. Highly recruited out of high school and a versatile player. Adams has good ball skills, as he made plays even after the interception. He is disciplined and has the potential to play press-man, but is best-suited for zone coverage where he can take advantage of his focus, discipline, and ball skills.

OG:

Omoregie Uzzi, 5th/6th round, Georgia Tech. More quick than powerful, but fits the zone-blocking to a T. An explosive and quick athlete. Scouts have compared him to Jahri Evans, with elite-type run blocking ability but lacking in pass blocking skills. He has also demonstrated the ability to get low leverage to protect against bull rushes. Georgia Tech's average offense last year could allow Uzzi to fly under the radar.

JC Tretter, 4th/5th round, Cornell. Athletic and has even more room for muscle. Quick, light feet and admirable lateral agility. Still undersized and lack of quality-level competition are concerns, but has the ability to add some muscle and use his quickness and intelligence to become an effective blocker in the zone scheme.

TE:

Jake Stoneburner, 5th/6th round, Ohio State. Not great production overall (but knowing the Buckeyes like I do, they rarely focus the TE as anything other than a 3rd or 4th option on almost every play). However, did score a TD 1 in every 4 times he touched the ball. Ran a 4.52 at his Pro Day and is developing as a blocker (he originally signed with OSU as a WR). Not overpowering as a blocker, but makes up for it with tenacity and a high motor. Easily coachable.

Mychal Rivera, 5th/6th round, Tennessee. Has drawn comparisons to Kellen Winslow Jr. in terms of playing style, he has the potential to stretch the field and has good YAC, route-running, and catching ability. Tough in the run game and also played special teams for the Volunteers. He lacks ideal size and struggled with leverage at times as a blocker, but is a versatile player and a good red-zone target.

You guys intrigued by any of the late-round guys?

Happy St. Patrick's Day to everyone. Enjoy your green beer and corned beef.

By my estimation, here are the Miami Dolphins needs as of March 17th at 3:20 p.m.

2 CB's (one could even argue 3)

2 OT's (one could argue 1)

1 TE (one could argue 0)

1 OG (one cannot argue)

Things to consider:

OK, I digress.....

OT:

CB:

OG:

TE:

You guys intrigued by any of the late-round guys?

Happy St. Patrick's Day to everyone. Enjoy your green beer and corned beef.

Ummmmmm, what do I do if my boy doesn't like the Dolphins?

SUTTON — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 03:09:16 -0000

I know what your first thought is: beat it into him. But the idea of prison bars doesn't resonate well with my skinny frame, easy-going nature, silky smooth skin, and luscious buttocks.

I was lucky enough to meet Dan Marino when I was 5 - it was the birth of an obsession. My father was a Dolphins fan. It seemed that the stars were aligned for me. But you know how kids sometimes resist what their parents like? What do I do if my boy resents the fact that I like the Dolphins so much? What if, oh my god I can barely type it, what if he doesn't like football at all?!?!

Here are some of my initial thoughts (ok, so it's a top 10...and in no particular order), and I would welcome any parenting advice from anyone except alpha, nete, beav, and anyone else who was indirectly hitting on my pregnant wife.

1. Brainwashing. Historically, it's been an excellent technique. You get them young enough to not know any better, then you force them to believe what you do, unless they want to go without dinner, extra-curricular activities, TV, friends, and birthday parties.

2. Positive Reinforcement. I will invite my, umm, 1 Dolphins friend (my dad no longer watches the NFL) to help educate the youngster about the good ol' days of Marino, the Mark brothers, Ricky Williams (I still love the guy), Surtain and Madison, Thomas and Taylor, and Lousaka Polite. We make sure to reward him with cupcakes anytime he likes something aqua, orange, aquatic like a dolphin, adulterous like Marino, skunky-smelling like Williams, or any other tangent that involves liking the finer things of Miami Dolphins allure.

3. Adoption. I try again.

4. Harp lessons at the age of 5. He becomes so frustrated and emotional about not being good at the harp, that he searches for salvation elsewhere and gives up harp-playing entirely. Hopefully he finds that salvation during Sundays in the comfort of a Tannehill jersey when he asks his father for "advice". Worse case scenario, I have a world-class harp player.

5. T-Pain's rendition of the Miami Dolphins fight song. We play it for him in utero, upon birth, and every day subsequently until he associates the Dolphins with winning in life. This is borderline brainwashing, but it's musical, so it's somehow less threatening.

6. My wife only feeds him foods aqua or orange-colored. So, I know, his diet will be limited. His choices will be oranges, carrots, fruit snacks, cheetos, and, ummmm, yeah, he won't be eating much.

7. Bank on a mathematical disposition. I am a numbers kind of guy. My wife is an accountant. We can reasonably assume that our boy will be predisposed towards numbers, and in which case, I will ramble off the only statistical and numerical point worth mentioning about our team: the Dolphins are the only undefeated team in NFL history.

8. Move to Miami. Gloria Estefan, Marc Anthony, and some other pop culture sensations could capitalize on the American obsession over celebrities and are simultaneously minority owners of the Dolphins organization. Venus Williams, too. Venus rhymes with penis, and that can only help me in my quest to educate my son.

9. The underdog story. I might have to wait a little bit for my son to appreciate a good folklore, but I will be patient enough to tell him about the story of an undersized linebacker from Texas Tech, or a pot-smoking journeyman, or a skinny DL from Akron, or a QB who dropped to the bottom of the 1st round for supposedly trying cocaine, or a QB who had an affair and fathered an illegitimate child, or a QB who rewrote all the record books but never won a Super Bowl, or a QB who came across as super lame in Papa John's commercials.

10. Have another boy. I can always disregard the 1st one.

All that being said, in my heart of hearts, I know that my son will be a Dolphins fan. He already has 3 one-sies, 1 white, 1 aqua, and 1 custom-made. He has his father pictured with Dan Marino when HE was a kid, side-by-side with a Dan Marino autograph. His mother converted from a Browns fan to a Dolphins fan. Don Shula's autograph is encapsulated in him getting carried off the field in the 1972 Perfect Season. Dolphins key chains, Dolphins beer mugs, our mobile over the crib has little dolphins on it, our dog has a Dolphins collar, and we have Dolphins Snuggies.

What else do we need to do?

I know what your first thought is: beat it into him. But the idea of prison bars doesn't resonate well with my skinny frame, easy-going nature, silky smooth skin, and luscious buttocks.

3. Adoption. I try again.

6. My wife only feeds him foods aqua or orange-colored. So, I know, his diet will be limited. His choices will be oranges, carrots, fruit snacks, cheetos, and, ummmm, yeah, he won't be eating much.

10. Have another boy. I can always disregard the 1st one.

What else do we need to do?

My draft plan. (Hint: It involves beer.) What's yours?

SUTTON — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 00:46:40 -0000

Speculating about free agents and draft picks has grown on me. I used to scowl at the scientific inaccuracy of anything and everything that people hypothesize about (there's about as much chance of a person getting a 7-round mock draft right as it is to win the lottery....twice) and rolled my eyes at the countless mock drafts and what-not that contribute to a heavily-opinionated off-season. I'm starting to come around. I tried to explain to my wife what mock drafts are all about. Here's a typical conversation we would have:

Me: "Looks like the Dolphins are going to take (insert player here)."

Wife: "Oh, what number is he going to wear?"

Me: "Well, we haven't literally drafted him yet, but Todd McShay and a few other Phinsiders think it's going to happen."

Wife: "Todd McShay? Is that the name of a coach?"

Me: "Um, no, I think he was a quarterback for Richmond or something like that."

Wife: "Why do you care about what Todd McShay says?"

Me: "Ummmmmmmmmmmm........."

Clearly it's hard to explain, but the fact of the matter is that it's fun to theorize about who will be in teal and orange. It gives you endless possibilities of what the 2013 Miami Dolphins team is going to look like. Virtual GM is one of my favorite hobbies, as I can sit from my computer chair, drink endlessly, criticize everyone except myself, and make only the right choices...because if I make a wrong one, no one will remember (hopefully).

My point in writing this article is to conjure up the enthusiasm for the 2013 NFL draft. We will hear enough "insider" and "expert" analysis over the coming weeks that I feel like sparing you on what my actual opinions are because your head will be spinning enough as it is. Even on the Phinsider, there's already an influx of what to do at the WR position, CB, OL, etc. Draft plans, free agency plans, future contingency plans. Let's take a step back, take a deep breath, and wait for the drama to unfold (figuratively, of course, I love all the articles I see on here). This is why I love the current NFL off-season and want nothing more than to keep it the way it is. The NFL draft is a particularly exciting time for me. Unfortunately, it's usually because we stink and it's the beckoning of hope that we are looking for. But all guilt trips aside, I love the draft, even in its new format. My ranking of exciting moments:

1. Birth of my kid.

2. Start of 2013 regular season.

3. Start of 2013 NFL draft.

4. March Madness.

Thursday of the day of the NFL draft: I will get off of work around 6, speed home in my scarcely working Toyota Corolla, sprint to the refrigerator, and crack open my first of approximately 12 beers. I will then be glued to the set, watching Mel Kiper's infinitely immovable hair, and listen to the likes of Adam Schefter, Chris Mortensen, and Todd McShay spout off about their insider knowledge. I will grow tired of this, and I will crack open beer #2. My dog will beg me to take him for a walk - I will ignore him, perfectly OK with a shit-stain on my carpet. I will probably be about 4-5 beers deep before the 1st selection of the draft. Once Dee Milliner is taken, I will chug the rest of my remaining beer and grab #6. Fast forward to the Bills and Jets selection at #8 and #9, and now my antennae is at its most upright position (this is not a penis metaphor). I know I'm within minutes of the Dolphins selection, and certainly there's no guarantee that we don't trade up for someone, but I see it more likely that we stay put or trade down. I want more than anything to stand up out of my chair and scream to the heavens "Thank God we selected this guy!" But I will probably think to myself, "OK, we'll see what happens." Beers number 8-12 will be in response to our aforementioned pick and mildly anticipating trading back into the late 1st round. We probably won't, so I will go to bed.

Friday: I'll go to work the next day, significantly hungover (don't laugh, I'm old now), knowing full well that I will repeat the same process. I will listen to kids get way too loud (I'm a teacher), and then think to myself, "Wait, why did I drink so many beers last night, we only had one pick?" I will promise myself to take it to a new level since we have 4 picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and will drink accordingly. Despite any of my inclinations, I will assume that anybody we pick will turn out to be the best thing since Bahama become a moderator. I will drink accordingly and have a rough, rough night. I will patronize any other AFC East picks and canonize any Miami Dolphins picks, and I will drink a beer for our new WR, CB, OL, my kid, my dog, my wife, fellow Phinsiders, our new helmet, our new stadium, Trey Wingo, the away games I plan on going to, Dan Marino's illegitimate kid, pizza, beer, potato chips, and by that point it's probably time to call it a night.

Saturday: I will at first be enthusiastic about watching each of the picks in the last 4 rounds, but I will probably fall asleep and miss most of the picks. Sigh.

What's your plan?

Me: "Looks like the Dolphins are going to take (insert player here)."

Wife: "Oh, what number is he going to wear?"

Me: "Well, we haven't literally drafted him yet, but Todd McShay and a few other Phinsiders think it's going to happen."

Wife: "Todd McShay? Is that the name of a coach?"

Me: "Um, no, I think he was a quarterback for Richmond or something like that."

Wife: "Why do you care about what Todd McShay says?"

Me: "Ummmmmmmmmmmm........."

1. Birth of my kid.

2. Start of 2013 regular season.

3. Start of 2013 NFL draft.

4. March Madness.

Saturday: I will at first be enthusiastic about watching each of the picks in the last 4 rounds, but I will probably fall asleep and miss most of the picks. Sigh.

What's your plan?

The People vs. Mike Wallace

SUTTON — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 00:24:22 -0000

Court is in session. Damnit Alpha6 and Kdog92, get yourselves under control. (Gavel pound, gavel pound).

Before getting ahead of ourselves and projecting a 7-round mock, please remember that free agency is going to help shape the roster with acquisitions and departures. Unlike the 2011 lockout season, free agency actually comes first and this will be the first step in shaping the new roster, and no position has been more debated and speculated than wide receiver. It's almost assumed among the fan base and nationwide that the Dolphins will be key players in free agency, specifically at the wide receiver position. With around $50 million in cap space, it's hard to make a case that the Dolphins won't make a splash in some variety, and considering our holes at WR, most people look at "the Big 3": Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, and Dwayne Bowe, and draw serious conclusions about who the Dolphins will pursue. My German Shepherd knows that the Dolphins will sign one of "the Big 3" in free agency, despite having only one descended testicle.

(Objection. Relevance?)

Mike Wallace is one of the Phinsiders' favorite WR's to discuss, and many people want to see him in teal and orange (or whatever our new uniforms are going to look like) in 2013. This court is in session to persuade the jury to vote "guilty" on Mike Wallace for counts of aggravated flakiness and 1st-degree one-trick-ponyism. With the court's permission, I'd like to drink a beer first.

Thank you.

Considering the current state of the Dolphins WR situation, it appears that we have a group of possession receivers. Assuming we bring back Brian Hartline....

(Objection. Leading the witness!)

I know it's a big assumption, but if Hartline comes back, we have two sturdy possession receivers in Brian Hartline and Davone Bess. There are things to like about these two, but I think most Phinsiders will agree that our WR corps lacks in certain skill sets that give us variety. In other words, our WR's lack diversity, because they roughly offer the same skill set: good hands, cerebral, good route running, and the ability to get 3rd down receptions. When I think about ways that WR's make plays, there are some serious skill sets that we lack: YAC, deep threats, jump ball situations, and breaking tackles either through force or quickness just to name a few. It would appear, prima facie, that Mike Wallace could at least help solve the "YAC" and "deep threats". Let's take a quick look at the public record, shall we?

Mike Wallace finished with 64 receptions for 836 yards, and 8 TD's. The TD's, specifically, are almost 3 times as many as the combined total of Dolphin WR's last year.

(Objection. Badgering the witness!)

Of the 64 receptions he had, he was targeted 119 times - almost 7.5 times a game. In other words, almost 50% of the time he was targeted, he did not catch it. This is a combination of poor throws, dropped passes, and passes defensed so this statistic has little weight. Thus, let's get to the heart of it: we would bring in Mike Wallace for the "YAC" and "deep threat" as aforementioned.

YAC: Mike Wallace ranked 47th in the NFL in YAC last year. Brent Celek and Brandon LaFell had more.

Deep Threat: Of the 16 games Mike Wallace played last year, he had 6 games where he caught a pass for 20 yards or more. Or roughly 38% of the time. As crazy as it sounds, Brian Hartline had 10 different games where he caught a pass of 20 yards or more. Or roughly 63% of the time. And Hartline sure as hell didn't have more games of 20+ yard catches because he is faster.

Let the court also be reminded that the Steelers, in recent past, have signed LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison, and Antonio Brown to contract extensions before their previous contract was up. The Steelers are well-known for locking up key contributors at the earliest possible convenience (usually during training camp because the Steelers do not negotiate in-season). I find it very puzzling that the Steelers would bypass their "stud" in Mike Wallace to offer their #2 WR (Antonio Brown) a handsome contract extension.

Final argument: with the "YAC" and "deep threat" not adding up, and the Steelers passing on a contract extension, Mike Wallace sends huge red flags to me. I know there is still time for the Steelers to re-sign him but, like I said, they usually do that before the final year of a contract if the player is deemed crucial. Although he is insanely fast, the fact that he had so few YAC and so few 20+ yard receptions despite being targeted about 7.5/game is alarming and unacceptable. I see no reason why the Dolphins should invest upwards of $10 million/year on Mike Wallace. It's time for you, the jury, to vote "guilty."

Thank you. Time for another beer. Court adjourned.

Court is in session. Damnit Alpha6 and Kdog92, get yourselves under control. (Gavel pound, gavel pound).

(Objection. Relevance?)

Thank you.

Considering the current state of the Dolphins WR situation, it appears that we have a group of possession receivers. Assuming we bring back Brian Hartline....

(Objection. Leading the witness!)

Mike Wallace finished with 64 receptions for 836 yards, and 8 TD's. The TD's, specifically, are almost 3 times as many as the combined total of Dolphin WR's last year.

(Objection. Badgering the witness!)

YAC: Mike Wallace ranked 47th in the NFL in YAC last year. Brent Celek and Brandon LaFell had more.

Thank you. Time for another beer. Court adjourned.

A Toast to Everyone Here at the Phinsider!

SUTTON — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 16:52:36 -0000

A quick background about myself so you know where I'm coming from. I was born and raised in southeast Ohio. I fell in love with Dan Marino, met him in 1987, and from there, fandom turned to obsession (even as a 5 year old). The Miami Dolphins have been my undisputed #1 team of any sport for 25 years now, and even as a kid, I never understood "bandwagon" fans. I was going to be a Dolphins fan until the day I die. But as you can reasonably assume, there are no Dolphins fans in southeast Ohio. It's Buckeyes/Steelers/Browns country. It wasn't until college that I met a fellow Dolphins fan. I have been isolated from other Dolphins fans my entire life, so I have developed a sort of "us against the world" mentality when it comes to my team. I defend the Dolphins no matter how stupid I sound. Goes the same with my genre of music (heavy metal). When it comes to my passions and interests, I'm in the super-minority, at least in the armpit of Appalachia.

Which is why I am raising my glass to all of you here at the Phinsider. Kevin, Keith, KDog92, James, Brian, Martin (sorry if I forgot anyone): you guys consistently deliver quality articles with informed opinions, insight, and analysis. Thank you for the time and dedication you put forth to have one of the best NFL blogs on the planet. This is a very exciting time of year for me, especially this year (with the amount of draft picks, cap space, and roster flexibility we possess), and you guys supply us fans with provocative and informative articles on a regular basis. Keep up the good work!

I would also like to give a shout-out to some frequent responders. A few that come to mind are FinFanFromCA, Bahama, ct, zeus, Agent J 78, OFF4L, Beav, beneny, souwantmyname, Chris Early, yakov, dolphinfan4lyfe, and I'm really sorry if I forgot anyone. You know who you are! You guys help me formulate my opinions about the team, because you are just as dedicated, motivated, and intelligent as I am trying to get this ship moving in the right direction. All of you have very educated, insightful responses to these stellar articles. I think of this website as a Dolphins "think tank", and I believe, like in society, a group of well-intentioned people can influence what is around them. And this "think tank" would be nothing if it weren't for you guys and the moderators.

In the vast abyss of mock drafts and potential free agent acquisitions/departures, we can kind of lose sight of why we are here. We are some of the most dedicated fans on the planet, and I can attest to that. The only Dolphins games I can go to are road games (without breaking the bank, and I'm a teacher, so the bank is thin). I have seen the Dolphins beat the Packers at Lambeau (the year GB won the Super Bowl) and win at Cincinnati this year; I have witnessed Colt McCoy lead a 4th quarter, last-second drive against us to win in Cleveland. Point being, no matter where I go, Dolphins fans are well-represented, even at the tundra in Lambeau field.

We are some of the most dedicated fans on the Earth, and after a decade of mediocrity, we still have the same fortitude and desire to win. We remember the days of excellence, and we will do anything to get there again. Keep up the good work, everyone! I'm raising my glass to everyone here at the Phinsider (even though it's noon) for everything you contribute and everything we embody. It ain't easy being a Dolphins fan, but the way I see it, it will only be that much sweeter when we arrive at the top. Congratulations to you all, and I look forward to many more discussions!

Calling all visionaries!

SUTTON — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 14:28:04 -0000

As I scan the endless sea of mock drafts, reflect on others' opinions on the state of the roster and how it should change through contract negotiations and free agency, Ireland and Ross, new stadium upgrades, new logo, and all the other distractions, I come back to one fundamental question: what does it take to win in today's NFL? Today's NFL. GM's and coaches are praised alike for being able to identify how the game is changing, to sift through the mountains and valleys of statistics and personnel, and look into their crystal ball-of-sorts to illuminate what shall pass and how the game will evolve. Bringing a bow-and-arrow to a night-vision-scope automatic weapon kind of fight will bring about the most painful result: not making the playoffs. CT wrote a nice piece praising Dimitroff from the Falcons for building a consistent winner in Atlanta, and arguments can be made for others as well, but the fact of the matter is that being able to see how the game is evolving helps expedite the adjustment process and helps catalyze a consistent loser into a consistent winner. Foresight leads to wins.

Let's help our team while we have the most poker chips at the table (poker chips = draft picks and cap space and ability to make anywhere from subtle to drastic changes of the roster depending on the evaluation of the coaching staff)! Answering this question will help decide if we blossom or deteriorate as a result of this offseason. And I'm well aware that the game is about passing now, and therefore, how important the DE position is. I understand. That's already evolved into today's game. Here is my two cents about how the game is evolving...remember, the more foresight we have, the more likely we are to build a longer-term winner!

1. Audibles and disguises. Having a coach or OC that doesn't allow his QB to audible at the line of scrimmage is a thing of the past. Rookies did it, back-ups did it, everybody did it. Not allowing your QB to audible is suicidal in today's NFL. As such, defenses need to be taught to disguise blitzes and coverages better. This falls on the scheme and coaches executing the scheme, and the players' intelligence executing the play. Offenses often come to the line of scrimmage with more than 1 play to choose from, and I think it's time for defenses to start adjusting by disguising coverage and blitzes better, and being able to quickly audible themselves.

How we can be pro-active about this on 2013 Miami Dolphins and in the future: versatility and intelligence becomes paramount.

2. Defense still matters. Say what you want about the offensive explosion in the NFL, but defense is overlooked. I've heard some Fin fanatics call for every 2013 draft pick to be selected on offense. Look, I know we were bringing bow-and-arrows when it comes to offense this year, but let's not get paranoid and build something lop-sided. To win our division and get through the playoffs, we will inevitably go through an elite QB. We will have to get a pass rush on said QB with 4 pass rushers, because statistically speaking, the elite QB's carve up defenses that blitz with 5+ rushers. If you look at this year's AFC and NFC championship games, each winning defense was able to shut the other team down for a considerable amount of time. You have to be able to do that in the playoffs to beat the elite guys. In each of the past 5 winning Super Bowl teams, their defensive identity came down to either getting heavy, consistent pressure on the QB or forcing turnovers, usually a combination of both (and an interplay of both). The 2012 Miami Dolphins did neither of these things. Wake needs help and so does our secondary.

How we can be pro-active about this on 2013 Miami Dolphins and in the future: draft DE now, draft LB's that can cover tight ends and running backs (2014 draft), draft safeties in the future that can match up with a slot receiver (aka we need safeties to start getting faster and quicker without sacrificing their ability to tackle), and CB's who have shown the ability to jump routes and make plays on the ball.

3. Balance is more important than ever. If there's one way to get stifled by an NFL defense, it's to be one-dimensional and/or predictable. If you're both, you're watching the playoffs from the couch. It's a pass-happy league, but where are the Lions? The Saints? Just because it's a pass-happy league, and you pass all the time, and statistically you are the best passing team in the NFL, and your QB's are upper echelon, it's not guaranteed you will have team success. The best offenses keep defenses off-balance, and you do that by keeping it in good down-and-distance, and having good run-pass balance.

How we can be pro-active about this on 2013 Miami Dolphins and in the future: this is purely subjective, but I want Sherman to do a better job at playcalling. I know our offensive talent wasn't all there, but I felt the playcalling was very predictable at times. I know we had questionable talent on the offensive side of the ball, but since when is questionable talent a reason to be predictable and conservative in calling plays? We need more talent at WR so throwing on 1st down is a more viable threat (more on this later) and we can throw more TD's in the red zone.

4. O stands for options. In today's NFL, you need at least three different threats on offense. 2 is not sufficient, 3 is necessary. The more, the merrier. Teams do this in different ways. NE attacks the middle with 2 TE's and a slot receiver, with role players sprinkled throughout other skill positions on offense; GB spreads out with multiple WR formations and attack space. Teams like Baltimore use a solid play-action game (Pitta, Boldin, and Dickson) and deep threat (Smith) because they can hedge on a RB (Rice) who can run for over 1,000 and catch 50 or more balls. Assuming we stay in the West Coast mold, that means we are relying on multiple WR's to help out, and unfortunately it didn't seem our personnel matched the scheme very well this year. Remember how fast-paced our offense was supposed to be this year? It was pedestrian at best. It wasn't conditioning; we just didn't have the personnel to make it work. I would have liked to see Reggie Bush and Lamar Miller catching more passes last year, and in addition, seeing them on the field at the same time.

How we can be pro-active about this on 2013 Miami Dolphins and in the future: the Miami Dolphins need options on offense. Like yesterday. We need players out of free agency and the draft on the offensive side of the ball, but I think the best bet of finding a long-term playmaker on offense is the draft. Assuming we have 15 picks in the next two drafts, I want 6 of them spent on potential playmakers on offense (including TE). My personal preference is for Tavon Austin with the first 2nd round pick, and Ryan Swope with the first 3rd round pick. But endless debate can be made about who we should choose, my point is that the 2013 Miami Dolphins need options on offense or our playcalling will never get creative (because we have nothing to get creative with), we will be in the same boat as we are right now (a mediocre team), ~~probably~~ fire a coach or GM or both, and have yet more uncertainty in the organization.

So, my fellow Dolphin fans and visionaries, here was my crude attempt on trying to keep a pulse on the future. How do you see the NFL evolving? And how do you think the Dolphins can fit in with it? Idealistic optimists and cynical pessimists can agree that this year we must make the right offseason decisions. This is the year to capitalize and set up a long-term winner. Tom Brady has 3-4 years left and it would be nice to build a team that can take over the AFC East throne for years while the other teams struggle with organizational instability and profound roster change.

How we can be pro-active about this on 2013 Miami Dolphins and in the future: versatility and intelligence becomes paramount.

Zig-Zags, Beers, and a Couple of Chill Pills

SUTTON — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 14:03:43 -0000

Holy crap! We talk about Ireland and Ross being scorned prom dates with their recent free agency exploits, and yet Dolphin fans are acting like the overly self-conscious, pimply-faced, paranoid dweeb with sweaty palms that came to the dance with a bunch of other dudes. Whatever your method for coping with stress, be it exercise or drinking or herbal supplements, then I suggest you go to the gym, get a fifth, or get some Pineapple Express. Here are a few things to consider before you start getting all worked up:

1. Ask yourself if you felt all this negativity before the media started calling us a "laughing stock". Are we really that upset that Peyton Manning chose someone else and passed on Matt Flynn who we knew more about than anyone else in the league? Peyton Manning personally chose the team he wanted to play for, spurning not just us but multiple teams, and the decision makers decided to not overpay for a QB who must have not fit the bill as a franchise QB. But apparently, this is the rationale for promoting the Dolphins as half-witted dumb asses. Does this make sense to you? Who has respect for the media anymore anyway? All they talk about is how infallible the Patriots are, Tim Tebow's holiness, and then anything they can possibly spin as scandalous, they do. It's not about sports information anymore, it's about gossip and controversy. Think for yourself. James Walker from ESPN and any other "expert" can suck a fart out of my butt if they think we are a laughing stock. I think our current label is egregious at best and I am surprised so many Dolphin fans are buying it.

2. I will agree that Ross and Ireland are pretty douchey in terms of personality. Yes, they have made questionable decisions (the courting of Harbaugh), made (in hindsight) bad draft picks and free agency moves, but what team hasn't? We pick Pat White, the Patriots pick Chad Jackson, the Jets take Vernon Gholston, yet only the Dolphins get the flak for it. We get AJ Feeley, the Patriots get Ochocinco, and the Jets get Braylon Edwards. But we are the only laughable dimwits. When it comes to the draft, the Patriots could take whoever they want and it will be God's gift (no disrespect to the St. John's basketball player) to the NFL draft. If I am Joe Philbin, I am putting all this Dolphins hate on the bulletin board day one of training camp.

3. Quarterback, quarterback, oh my gosh the quarterback position. Of course, we are the only team in the league looking for a franchise quarterback (heavy sarcasm). From my estimation, about half of the league is looking for a franchise quarterback. But somehow us feeble-minded sea mammals are the only ones getting criticism for it. We just get the heat because of our failed attempts from over 10 years of free agencies and drafts. (Are we dumb or just unlucky?) But from this humble man's perspective, the only season that matters is the one that is coming up and a lot of teams are in the same boat as us - being devoid of a franchise QB. It's not like we haven't tried. In my opinion, we have tried too hard and caused us to reach which has cost us in the salary cap and value in/quantity of draft picks.

4. The draft is coming!!! Because of our carousel of coaches and schemes, our drafts have not been as desirable because we keep trying to find players to fit the constantly changing systems we have. Regardless, the draft is the way to create a sustained, long-term winnning club. Free agency is so overrated. How's free agency worked for the Jets and Redskins? How has the draft worked for the Steelers and Packers? Get my point? The draft is way more important than free agency, so our future and our continued success is still undetermined. Let's hope we strike gold, whoever we take. There is hope in the draft (say it with me).

It is March. The season starts in September. The draft is in a month. Other personnel moves will be made. A lot of stuff can happen with this much time remaining (remember Chad Pennington?). We re-signed Soliai. Signed Richard Marshall who was considered by some sources to be the most important player on their defense. We traded Brandon Marshall. So what. The NFL is not the NBA where you have to manage egos and head cases. You can win without them. The integrity of the locker room is paramount. He had way too many drops and inconsistent play to have me gushing for him. Our new scheme does not require his skill set (he was more of a possession guy than a YAC guy in a Dolphins uniform anyway) and our locker room will not miss his distractions. I am just glad we got something for him. 3rd round draft picks are not chopped liver.

With all this said, I am EXCITED for the new season. This paranoia and doom-and-gloom is just annoying. Anything can happen in this league. Do we have holes to fill? Sure. Is this season a lost cause? F that. 4-12? Huh? We lost our first 7 games last year and still had a better record than that. Our QB, who had a shortened training camp, went 6-3. Our schedule next year is favorable. It's not all rainbows and butterflies from where I'm sitting, but it certainly isn't the apocalypse either. There is reason to be excited for the upcoming season and the draft, but if you are a negative person, I suppose you will find negativity everywhere you look. Things have been rough, but there's always hope. What else can we do? I am a fan no matter what happens, and I defend what I love. It's not like I have a choice. All this struggle will make it that much sweeter when we win. Get off James Walker's nuts and think for yourself. The Dolphins are ok. There is work to be done, but we are NOT the laughing stock of the NFL. So grab your workout shoes, your shot glass, or your bong (or maybe all 3) and CHILL. Peace as always. Go Dolphins!

Where Will We Be In 3 Years?

SUTTON — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 05:23:59 -0000

Hey all. I am a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan and new to the site. I am ecstatic to be a part of the Dolphin community. I met Dan Marino when I was 5 years old in Parkersburg, West Virginia, and the fandom has slowly escalated every year since. I am from southeast Ohio, so my isolation has only enhanced my love of the fins. When I was a kid, we were always on the cusp, but never won the ultimate prize. In the last 10 years, we show flashes, but it's never enough. There is no stability. Ownership changes, coaching changes, personnel changes. You can't be a Dolphins fan, and not be patient. The way I look at it, when we eventually win it all, it will be that much sweeter enduring this torture. With that being said, I ask you this: where will we be in 3 years?

Mock drafting is fun. Free agent speculation is okay. But what I really want to know is where are we headed. If we really want to win, it is my belief it begins with winning the division. Which essentially means, how do we take care of the Pats? (Sorry to all you contrarians, but the Jets don't scare me. I think they are in worse shape than we are.) If you watched week 1, and almost puked in your mouth when Wes Welker had a 99 yd. TD catch, then you will agree with me that we need two things: pressure on the QB and secondary. Scheme can only help so much. The two are directly related - pressure on the QB makes your secondary look good, an excellent secondary makes your pass rush look good. We were 25th in the league against the pass. Hopefully Coyle's DB background will improve the secondary instantly, but 25th will not get it done.

On offense, I am just crossing my fingers that Philbin's scheme will highlight the strengths of our players. The last half of the season, our offense was pretty good. Bush emerged. Moore made good throws. I am reluctant to spend many picks on offense, which might put me in the minority. But I think we have good pieces for an explosive offense, with the exception of some OL help. Bush and Thomas, BM (who I affectionately call Squirt), Davone Bess who is vastly underrated. Some decent role players. I think Moore deserves another chance (not to say we couldn't find someone to groom). Long is a perennial Pro Bowler and Pouncey will soon be - the two most important positions on the OL. When our offense finally clicked last year, it was fun to watch. If you can't tell, defense is my concern. We generated little pressure and didn't force enough turnovers.

For all you QB homers, finding a franchise QB is a matter of luck. Aaron Rodgers was passed on by dozens of teams. So was Brees. So was Brady. GM's and scouts are paid millions of dollars to find these players. Finding a QB is hard, and it's a complex myriad of factors that determines if someone will succeed or not. So I am not willing to mortgage our draft and possibly high picks for next year for one player. I don't care if it's QB. I know finding a franchise QB is our front office's number one priority, but that doesn't mean we spend our resources like a crackhead. We have plenty of holes to fill. If we take a QB in round 1, I sure as hell hope we trade down to do it, because RGIII ain't fallin' that far (who isn't a sure thing anyway).

With all this rambling aside, where will we be in 3 years? How will we get there? I open the floor to the best fans in the world. Much respect to you all. And again, glad to be a part of the community! Peace.

Year 1: Improve, become familiar with the schemes. Build through the draft. Reward our important pieces. Don't fire anyone.

Year 2: Win Division. Playoffs. Add depth. Don't fire anyone.

Year 3: Super Bowl.

Year 1: Improve, become familiar with the schemes. Build through the draft. Reward our important pieces. Don't fire anyone.

Year 2: Win Division. Playoffs. Add depth. Don't fire anyone.

Year 3: Super Bowl.