A Math Project

SaberR — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:23:43 -0000

So, I have been crunching some numbers on Adrian Beltre, trying to figure out given normalized luck, how his numbers might actually look.

Well I did some math

Adrian Beltre has had 446 AB's this season. In 327 of those AB's, Beltre put the ball in play. Beltre has a 21 % Line Drive percentage, meaning in 68 of his at bats this year he has hit a line drive. According to Hard Ball Times and history a line drive will land for a hit 75 % of the time. So of those 68 at bats Beltre should have 51 or so hits. Now if I did my math correctly, Beltre only has 23 hits this year from his line drives.

So if I go ahead and add 28 hits to Beltre's total (139 instead of 111) That would bump his average up to .311. So Beltre's line might look something like this...

.311 AVE and a .372 OBP

But Here's were I am I know my math has flaws.

1.) Beltre hasn't maintained a 21% LD% all year

2.) I don't know how many of his hits would have been for XB's

3.) I don't know how many of this line drives would still end up being caught due to bad luck

4.) Other factors I have forgotten to put in there.

In short. I need some help.

Michel Inoa

SaberR — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 19:09:51 -0000

Well I have been reading everything I can about this guy and I am very impressed. He is only 16 and is already 6' 7" and a pretty athletic frame.

I have also read that the Mariners aren't even going to pursue this guy...yeah. We are in a big time rebuilding mode and the Mariners can't even offer 5 millions dollars to a kid that could by himself make our farm 10x better. Is there something I don't know?

Oakland is expected to offer him 4.5 million or so. The Yankees are in the mix as well. I guess I am just wondering, why not just swoop in and sign him for 5-6 million? The kid figures to be a star, and has a very projectable body already, and nasty stuff. Anyways I may be just rambling on about something I don't have all the facts on. But it sure seems like a no brainer to sign this kid.

Here is a scouting report.

Inoa Report

Comments?

SB Nation User Blog: SaberR

A Math Project

Michel Inoa