SB Nation User Blog: SackMan

Week 10 Preview: Bears (4-4) @ 49ers (3-5)

SackMan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:25:57 -0000

Jay, things will get better once they finally decide to build a team around you. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

The schedule makers do no favors for the Bears this week, as they have to make the long flight out to San Francisco on a short week of practice for a Thursday night kickoff.

Week 9 Recap

The 49ers played nice hosts, and gave Vince Young and the Titans their second win of the season 34-27. QB Alex Smith, making his second straight start, made everyone remember why he was benched in the first place, as he threw 3 INTs, including a decisive pick 6 with less than 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter. TE Vernon Davis continued his impressive season with 10 catches for over 100 yards, and Frank Gore ran like he always does, but in the end, San Francisco lost a game they should've won at home. Anyone claiming that Mike Singletary is the next coming of Don Shula, and you know who you are, might want to taste a bite of reality. I suggest the Grawboski's take off the beer glasses.

The Bears embarrassed themselves at home in a 41-21 loss to the Cardinals. Sadly, an event that I predicted all too well in last week's game preview. The game was even more lobsided than the score appears, as the pathetic defense allowed the Cardinals to score on their first 6 possessions without an ounce of resistance. It wasn't until Matt Leinart came into relieve Kurt Warner for the afternoon, that the Bears defense actually looked alive, nearly intercepting Leinart on his first pass... and picking him off on his second attempt. Warner promptly came back into the game and threw his 5th TD pass for a career day... a week after he threw 5 INTs. The defense wasted away a 369 yard 3 TD performance from Jay Cutler, who was running for his life all afternoon. Greg Olsen was the recipient of all 3 TDs, as he enjoyed the best game of his career. Tommie Harris got ejected on the 4th play from scrimmage for punching a Cardinals lineman in the face... it was the only punch the Bears defense packed all day.

Quick Numbers:

23.9: Points allowed per game by the Bears defense.
5: Rushing attempts for Matt Forte last Sunday vs the Cardinals.
65.7: Alex Smith's career QB rating.
25: Passes of 20-plus allowed by the 49ers defense.

Key Injuries:

SF WR Issac Bruce (ankle) Q
SF CB Nate Clements (shoulder) O
SF LT Joe Staley (knee) O
SF RB Glen Coffee (concussion) O

CHI RB Garrett Wolfe (Kidney) O
CHI CB Charles Tillman (Shoulder) Q
CHI SS Al Afalava (Shoulder) Q

When the 49ers have the ball.
There are two pieces that make this San Francisco offense work: RB Frank Gore, and TE Vernon Davis. Gore is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and can take it to the house from anywhere on the field. Davis is finally performing like the elite player the 49ers thought he would be, when they drafted him in the first round. According to Davis' tweets, "The 49ers will dominate the Bears defense." A prediction that doesn't seem so far-fetched after last Sunday. However, the 49ers will be without their starting LT Joe Staley for this one, as he sprained his MCL early in Sunday's loss to Tennessee. QB Alex Smith was sacked 4 times without Staley's protection.

The key matchup for the 49ers: Frank Gore vs the Bears front 7
Expect Singletary to play this one close to the vest, and run Frank Gore all night to avoid mistakes from his crappy QB. The Bears defense allowed 182 rushing yards to the NFL's 32 ranked run offense last week. It's surely up on the wall in Singletary's office.

The X factor on offense for the 49ers: TE Vernon Davis
Davis has been a beast this year, and Bears LBs have been awful in pass coverage vs opposing TEs. Davis could cakewalk through the middle of the Bears zone coverage.

When the Bears have the ball.
This offense has become completely one-dimensional... as Jay Cutler has almost nothing to work with in his "non-supporting" cast. Because of the crappy roster that has been built on both sides of the ball, the Bears are going to have to let Cutler be Cutler, and live or die on his golden arm for the rest of the season. The pass protection is suspect, the run blocking is awful, and the receivers can't create separation or find an open spot in a zone even when Cutler escapes the pocket and extends the play. At this point, it's safe to say that Cutler is probably second guessing his decision to leave Denver. The Bears finally have a franchise QB... the problem is they don't have a franchise.

Last season, Ron Turner implemented a no-huddle offense for Kyle Orton to minimize the deficiencies of the O-line. At the midway point of the season, Cutler's finally familiar enough with the offense to do the same. Expect to see it Thursday night.

The key matchup for the Bears: QB Jay Cutler vs the line of scrimmage
On an extremely short week of preparation, neither defense is likely to do anything out of the ordinary. This will give Cutler an opportunity to recognize the 49ers defensive fronts pretty well, and attack them at will if the Bears implement the no-huddle.

The X Factor on offense for the Bears: TE Greg Olsen
It's redundant every week... I can't even bother to choose another X-factor for the Bears. Olsen is a game changer for the Bears... when he's heavily involved.

Side notes from the NFC North:

Vikings & Lions: Minnesota hosts Detroit after a bye week this Sunday. There's no easier match-up on paper than this one. QB Matthew Stafford finally returned to the field last week for the Lions and threw 5 INTs in Seattle.

Packers: Aaron Rodgers was sacked another 6 times last week... by the Tampa Bay Yucs! The Pack allowed an additional 12 QB hits, giving Tampa their first victory of the season. Packers have now allowed an NFL worst 37 sacks on the year, and they host a hot Dallas team this Sunday. Bad things will happen to Aaron Rodgers.

Week 9 Preview: Cardinals (4-3) @ Bears (4-3)

SackMan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:33:51 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Darnell Dockett has become quite a force (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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In a schedule that sounds like we're turning back the clock to 1925, the Bears and Cardinals kickoff at noon on Sunday in Soldier Field... re-newing the old Northside vs Southside rivalry. Game on FOX.

Week 8 Recap

The Cardinals got steam rolled by the Panthers at home, 34-21. Entering the game, Arizona's run D was #1 in the NFL, but Carolina ran for an incredible 270 yards. It wasn't the only incredible feat the Panthers accomplished in this game: they intercepted Kurt Warner 5 times... and for the first time all year, Jake Delhomme didn't turn the ball over (he only attempted 14 passes LOL). When you play the Cardinals, you usually try to play keep away from Warner and Co, but the Panthers played keep away from their own QB to win this one.

The Bears took care of the woeful Browns at Soldier Field 30-6. However, aside from the final score, there was absolutely nothing impressive about the victory. The Bears, once again, had red zone problems, as their first 3 drives stalled and led to FGs... including one drive that started at the Cleveland 13 yard line after Danieal Manning interception. Manning had a spectacular game... leading the team in tackles, breaking up a pass, intercepting a pass, and recovering a fumble.

Quick Numbers:

270: Rushing yards the Cardinals allowed to the Panthers last week.
3.5: Matt Forte's pathetic YPC in 2009
#7: The Cardinals rushing defensive ranking, falling all the way from #1 after last week
1: The number of sacks recorded by the Bears defense in their last 3 games. 1.

Key Injuries:

ARI WR Anquan Boldin (right ankle) Q

CHI FS Danieal Manning (back) Q
CHI WR Devin Hester (ankle) Q

When the Cardinals have the ball.
Kurt Warner is leading another high octane offense, with WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. What separates Warner from other QBs is his ability to read blitzes, and beat them with a quick release over and over again. Well, the Bears blitz more than just about every team in the NFL... and do it rather unsuccessfully. This should play right into the hands of Warner. And, when the Bears aren't blitzing, they're normally sitting in a very generous zone coverage, where veteran WRs make a killing. Ocho Cinco feasted on the Bears zone coverage a couple weeks ago... and Fitz and Boldin are better. Sorry folks... but if Warner comes out firing, this could get ugly again... much like the Bengals game.

The key matchup: Anquan Boldin vs the Bears back 7
While Larry Fitzgerald is the headliner and deep threat, Boldin is the guy who makes his living underneath and in the middle: exactly where the windows are in the Cover 2. Boldin will find the open spots in this weak zone all day long.

The X factor on offense for the Cardinals: Beanie Wells
Wells is starting to adapt to the NFL, and finally becoming a staple of the offense. He now leads the team in rushing, despite a few less carries than Tim Hightower, and is starting to look like a feature back. At some point this season, he's going to have "a game."

When the Bears have the ball.
Sometime this year... Ron Turner is going to have to allow Jay Cutler to do what he does best: make plays on the move. Now, would be a good time to finally start. The Bears offensive line has been so poor, that it's time to intentionally get Cutler outside of the pocket by design. When Cutler's on the move, he minimizes the Bears weak pass protection, and forces defenses to react, by freezing LBs and DBs who hesitate to commit to the QB or the WRs. Up to this point of the season, the Bears are simply wasting Cutler's best talents. And that's trending in other areas as well... because they are also wasting the talents of their two RBs Matt Forte and Garret Wolfe, by continually asking them to run between the tackles of a poor offensive line, when their only running success is coming outside. In the red zone, where the team continues to struggle, Ron Turner must get creative and find a way to create mis-matches. Here's an idea: use your 6'7" TE, Kellen Davis.

The key matchup: Olin Kreutz and Josh Beekman vs Darnell Dockett
Dockett has steadily become one of the better DTs in the league, and is a very disrupting force. With the Bears issues on the line, he could make things difficult for the Bears all afternoon.

The X Factor on offense for the Bears: TE Greg Olsen
As usual... this nod goes to Olsen. When Olsen gets heavily involved, good things happen for the Bears offense.

Side notes from the NFC North:

Vikings: Minnesota's run defense took another hit the last two weeks, as they are now allowing 4.1 ypc and 94.8 ypg. It feels good to be right about something this year :) They'll have the bye week to work on that, although there's no fountain of youth for Pat Williams to drink out of.

*(in the pre-season, I warned that the Vikings days of dominant run D was nearing an end, as Pat Williams turns 37 years old)

Packers: Aaron Rodgers was sacked another 6 times last week... and the Packers O-line let the Vikings record 10 more QB hits on him. It's amazing this man is still standing. This weekend, the Pack switch bays, and head south to take on the Yucs. Rodgers might not be on his back all afternoon this Sunday.

Lions: Detroit flies out west to Seattle after losing at home last week to the Rams 17-10, in a game they should've won. I doubt we'll be saying the same next Monday morning. Seattle should take of this bad road team rather easily.

Week 7 Preview: Bears (3-2) @ Bengals (4-2)

SackMan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:50:36 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

He's back. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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The Bears take on Cedric Benson, Ocho Cinco and the resurgent Bengals on Sunday, when they visit Cinci for a 3:15pm CT start on Fox. If you can't catch the game on TV, Ocho Cinco might tweet it live for you.

Week 6 Recap

The Bengals hosted the Texans high flying air attack last Sunday, and got out scored 28-17. Matt Schaub torched the Bengals secondary for 392 yards and 4 TDs... while Carson Palmer's passes only found the endzone once, in trying to keep up with the Houston offense. The biggest news for the Bengals however, was the loss of NFL sack leader Antwan Odom, who tore his Achilles' tendon, and is out for the remainder of the year.

The Bears littered the field with costly mistakes in a 21-14 road loss to Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The Bears seemingly outplayed the Falcons for much of the game, outgaining Atlanta 373 to 253, and holding the ball for 33:54, compared to 26:06. They forced a handful of three and outs and sustained good drives between the 20's. But, the Bears couldn't overcome two turnovers inside the Falcons 10 yard line... along with a handful of penalties and miscues.

Quick Numbers:

8.0: Atwan Odom's sack total (out for the remainder of the season), exactly half of the Bengals team sack total (16)
4.2: Cedric Benson's average yards per carry in 2009
8/7: Carson Palmer's TD/INT ratio.
#22: The Bengals defensive ranking (total defense).
#7: The Bears defensive ranking (total defense).
64.0 and 86.9: Jay Cutler's completion %, and QB rating... right on pace with his career numbers.
3: Receiving touchdowns for Greg Olsen, in just 15 catches.
50-51: Marvin Lewis' career record.

Key Injuries:

CIN DE Antwan Odom (achilles) IR
ATL S Roy Williams (forearm) Q

CHI LB Brian Urlacher (wrist) IR
CHI LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) O

When the Bengals have the ball.
With a resurgent Cedric Benson leading the charge, the Bengals have put together a more balanced attack than in the past. The team is averaging a nice 4.2 YPC on the ground. When they aren't running the ball, they'll put it in the hands of QB Carson Palmer. Palmer has been battling injuries over the last season or so, but seems to be finally back 100%, and with some good receiving threats in Chad "OchoCinco" Johnson, and Andre Caldwell, the Bengals put together a nice potent offense. Surprising, when it's crunch time, Palmer has been looking Caldwell's way this year. The forgotten men are free agent signing Laverneous Coles (who seems to be fading away fast), and young trouble maker Chris Henry, who is an excellent downfield threat.

The key matchup: Cedric Benson vs the Bears Front 7
Let's not kid ourselves... this day is all about Cedric Benson, the NFL's #3 leading rusher. Benson will be out to prove something and say "I told you so." However, on the flip side... it also gives everyone on the Bears defense, who never liked Benson to begin with, a chance to finally hit him as a non-teammate. If you recall, a few training camps ago, Brian Urlacher and Mike Brown (the team's captains) laid some huge beatdowns on Benson, who whined about it to the press.

The X factor on offense for the Bengals: OchoCinco
As always, OchoCinco has been stirring up some twitter trash talk all week, and the Bears pass defense has been very kind to opposing #1 WRs.

When the Bears have the ball.
Jay Cutler, incredibly, is leading this mediocre Bears offense up and down the field between the 20's with ease. However, the Bears continue to stall in the red zone, as the weak offensive line just can't open up holes for Matt Forte in key situations. WRs Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Johnny Knox, are developing very nicely under the guidance of Cutler, but the ultimate indicator for success is how involved the TEs get in the passing game. Greg Olsen, Dez Clark, and Kellen Davis are a very nice group.

The key matchup: The Bears O-line vs the Bengals Front 4.
With little reason to respect the Bears run game, it's hard to imagine the Bengals stacking the LOS with 8 men in the box to defend the run. If the Bears line can get into "attack" mode early, they might actually enjoy some running success this Sunday. The run game, no doubt, was a focus during practice all week, as it simply must improve.

The X Factor on offense for the Bears: TE Greg Olsen
During the bye week, the Bears stated they wanted to get Greg Olsen more involved in the offense. Olsen responded with 5 catches and a TD... and he and Devin Hester led the team in targets with 10 each. When Olsen's heavily involved, it creates one on one opportunities for the Bears receivers.

Side notes from the NFC North:

Vikings: Spinning the broken record once again (in the pre-season, I warned that the Vikings days of dominant run D was nearing an end, as Pat Williams turns 37 years old), Minnesota's run defense slid down one more spot on the charts this week to #13.They're now allowing 3.9 ypc, down from their #1 ranking in 2008 (3.3). Last week they gave up 4.5 ypc to the Ravens, who eventually abandoned the run game after falling behind, and passed their way back into the game in the 4th quarter. This week, the Vikings go on the road, outdoors, to Pittsburgh... who have been running all over everyone since Rashard Mendenhall took over the starting job. Chalk this one up in the L column for the Vikings, as they barely survived the Ravens, thanks to a missed FG with time expiring.

Packers: Green Bay had their way with Lions last week, in a 26-0 shutout. However, that poor swiss cheese offensive line allowed another 5 sacks last and another 6 QB hits... to the friggin Lions! That's 25 sacks already on the year! At least they get the Brownies at home this week... that ought to make Aaron Rodgers feel a little better.

Lions: Poor Detroit has found the injury bug at QB. #1 pick, Matthew Stafford, is still nursing a knee injury (suffered vs the Bears), and to make matter worse, Daunte Culpepper left last week's game with a pulled hamstring. At least they got the bye week to get healthy, but If both QBs are still hurt, Drew friggin Stanton could get a start next week vs the equally woeful Rams.

NightLink: Bears Sign Cutler To Extension

SackMan — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:18:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Phelps - AP

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Per Brad Biggs' tweet:

Jay Cutler 2-year extension with the Chicago Bears. QB will get $30 million with $20 million of it guaranteed. QB now signed thru 2013.

Helmet tip: GallopingGhost

And according to this article, written yesterday on October 19 by Biggs' fellow writer Andrew Brandt of the National Football Post, the Gaines Adams trade freed up cash for the Cutler deal.

From a value standpoint, giving up a second-round draft choice is a truly valuable asset to give up, and personnel people can debate the value of Adams against a 2010 second-round pick. The financial terms, however, skew toward Chicago, which acquired an extremely reasonable contract -- the bulk of the money having been paid by the Bucs -- for a prime position on the team and hedging against paying their existing defensive ends a high market value.

The Bears will need their money. If Jay Cutler progresses as expected, they’re looking at rewarding him with an APY (average per year) of $15M and a guarantee over $30M, based on recent deals by Matt Cassel, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning.

Are the Bears getting out-coached?

SackMan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:35:31 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Chances are... Lovie Smith is probably dialing up a blitz in this picture from the sidelines in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2009. The Bears had blitzed on 45% of their opponent's drop-backs prior to that game. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

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After Sunday night's painful loss in Atlanta, I found myself questioning the abilities of the Bears coaching staff once again. The Bears had two weeks to prepare for that game, yet they littered the field with penalties and blunders which ultimately cost them a chance at victory. Three of the biggest coaching mistakes in that game are flat out inexcusable.

1. The Roddy White TD - The Bears were caught out of position when 3 receivers were covered by only 2 defenders. The Falcons had two wideouts and TE Tony Gonzalez lined up in trips right at the LOS, and Gonzalez was MLB Nick Roach's responsibility. The Bears were running a safety blitz, and outnumbered in coverage. No timeout was called on the field by Roach... and, no timeout was called from the sidelines either. The result: Matt Ryan threw an quick screen to Roddy White, who was uncovered with two blockers, and ran for one of the easiest TDs you'll ever see in the NFL.

2. The no-huddle - The Bears defense was caught off guard by a no-huddle attack, and the Falcons finished a 12-play drive in the first half that ended with a Tony Gonzalez TD. Gonzalez was wide open in the back of the endzone, where MLB Nick Roach once again failed to cover him. When asked by reporters after the game about the Falcons no-huddle offense, Love Smith said they were unprepared for it, even though Matt Ryan said they've used the no-huddle a lot this season when he was asked a similar question. It was later discussed the the Falcons used the no-huddle very often vs New England earlier in the season. So, the Bears had two weeks to prepare for it, and were unprepared? Hmmmm... go figure.

3. Twelve men on the field - For the second time this year on Sunday Night Football, the Bears found themselves in a numbers crunch. The first time this happened, in Green Bay, the Bears were punting in the 4th quarter from their own 26 yard line with a 12-10 lead. When they thought the Packers had too many men on the field, they ran a fake to try an take advantage of a "free play." But, they were wrong, lost a challenge and a timeout, and turned it over on downs at their own 30 yard line. The Packers kicked a field goal to take a 13-12 lead.

This time, in the 4th quarter once again, the Bears had just forced the Falcons to punt on a 4th and 4 from the Bears 36 yard line. But, 12 men on the field gave the Falcons a 1st down at the Bears 31 in the 4th quarter with a 14-7 lead. Thankfully, Matt Ryan was intercepted by Nathan Vasher at the Bears 7 yard line on the very next play.

When I reflect on those 3 things... I sit here and scratch my head.

Then, I start to think of some other concerns that raise my eyebrow.

The Bears blitz
Over the past two seasons, the Bears have blitzed more than almost every team in the NFL.

Per Dan Pompei, on Sep 27th:

Last year, they blitzed on 34 percent of their opponents' drop-backs. This year, with coach Lovie Smith handling the defensive play-calling for the first time, they have blitzed on 45 percent of their opponents' drop-backs.

Only six teams -- the Jets, Bills, Steelers, Browns, Cowboys and Cardinals -- have run more blitzes than the Bears this season. And of those, only the Bills and Cardinals operate out of a four-man front as the Bears do.

I also remember it being documented that the Bears led the NFL in blitz % last season... although I can't find a source.

Sunday night vs the Falcons was no exception. The Bears blitzed Matt Ryan repeatedly in that game, however they failed to register a single sack or QB hit. Ryan's jersey never even touched the ground. When a team blitzes that many times, you'd figure they would eventually get to the QB... right? But, the Bears blitzes over the past several years have been practically useless... which raises another coaching question: Why?

Leading the league in blitz % in 2008, the Bears ranked 22nd in the league with 28 sacks. So far this season, the Bears have vastly improved their pass rush with 14 sacks... however, 10 of them are from defensive lineman. Why aren't the blitzers actually getting to the QB?

Talent has underachieved on the Bears, and excelled on other teams

Players come and go... and sometimes perform better on other teams. I get it... it's just the way it is. However, in the Bears case, there's a long list piling up. These players have had limited success as a Bear, and have left Chicago and prospered in other places. And, when you break it down... you wonder why they aren't achieving this success in Chicago?

It's not like the Bears have lacked talent... this list is proof.

QB Kyle Orton (traded) - Has led the Broncos to a 6-0 start and has a QB rating of 100.1

RB Thomas Jones (traded) - Led the AFC in rushing in 2008 with the Jets, and is currently #5 in the NFL in rushing yards

RB Cedric Benson (released) - The former #1 pick is experiencing a revival as a Bengal, and is currently #3 in the NFL in rushing yards

WR Justin Gage (released) - Led the Titans in receiving in 2007 & 2008, and is starting for them again in '09

WR Bobby Wade (released) - Led the Vikings in receiving in 2007, and is still in the league as the #3 WR for the Chiefs

WR Mark Bradley (released) - Is the 2nd leading WR for the Chiefs, and in 16 total games for Kansas City, has 45 catches for 557 yards & 4 TDs... nearly equaling his total output with the Bears in a span of 34 games over 4 seasons.

S Chris Harris (traded) - Has been the starting SS for the Panthers for 3 seasons, and led the league with 8 forced fumbles in 2007.

T Mark Colombo (released) - The former #1 pick, who battled knee injuries with the Bears, has started 53 consecutive games for the Cowboys at RT

FB Lousaka Polite (released) - He joined the Bears after 3 years in Dallas, and has been the starting FB for the Miami Dolphins for the past 2 seasons

It pains me to say it, but the evidence is stacking up here against Lovie Smith and his staff. Maybe it's a narrow-minded view, since my eyes are focused so much more on the Bears, than the rest of the NFL as a comparison. But, the overall picture sure doesn't look too good.

Poll

How would you grade the Bears coaching staff?

A: Great: They give the team a very strong competitive advantage

14 votes

B: Good: They are sometimes a step ahead, but usually pretty even with the opposition

149 votes

C: Average: They don't make or break the team

266 votes

D: Below average: They get out-coached way too often

498 votes

F: Bad: They are always unprepared

82 votes

1009 votes | Poll has closed

Week 6 preview: Bears (3-1) @ Atlanta (3-1)

SackMan — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 04:58:28 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White, left, celebrates a touchdown with teammates Justin Peelle (87) and Tony Gonzalez (88) in the first quarter of their NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, in San Francisco, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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We've waited two weeks for this darn game... it's about time! Let's hope the Bears are tired of waiting too, when they play the Falcons in prime time on Sunday Night Football, 7:20 CT on NBC.

Week 5 Recap

While the Bears had the weekend off and sat on their couches, the Falcons traveled far to the West coast and absolutely destroyed the 49ers 45-10. There's not much to say about that game, since the score pretty much sums it up. However, one thing I'd like to note is that the Falcons were coming off their own bye week prior to that match-up, and through the first 3 games of the season, Roddy White had been almost invisible. During the bye week, White sat down with head coach Mike Smith to have a good, friendly chat about what was going on. The two determined that Roddy just had to relax and be himself... and not "press" on the field. Well... White responded with 8 catches for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Not too shabby. Luckily for me, I had just picked up White for my fantasy team, and was rewarded right away. I'm starting him again this week against the Bears crappy pass defense.

Quick Numbers:

102.9: Matt Ryan's QB rating on the season thus far.
301: The number of passing yards for Matt Ryan in last year's 22-20 victory over the Bears.
86.1: The average number of yards per game the Bears defense allows to opposing #1 WRs (per football outsiders), ranking them #20 in the league.
3.5: The Falcon's average yards per carry, down almost a full yard from 2008 (4.4).
127: The number of rushing yards allowed per game by the Falcon defense (4.9 ypc).
2: The number of sacks allowed by the Falcons O-Line.
14: The number of sacks forced by the Bears defense.
3-2: Lovie Smith's record after the bye week. The Bears have won their last 3 in a row.

Key Injuries:

ATL DT Peria Jerry (knee) O
ATL WR Harry Douglas (knee) O
ATL S Antoine Harris (knee) Q
ATL FB Ovie Mughelli (calf) Q

CHI LB Brian Urlacher (wrist) IR
CHI RB Adrian Peterson (knee) Q
CHI DT Anthony Adams (toe) Q
CHI LB Hunter Hillenmyer (ribs) Q
CHI DL Israel Idonije (knee) Q

When the Falcons have the ball.
It all starts with the QB, and Matt Ryan is proving to be one of the best young QBs in the NFL, after being drafted 3rd overall in 2008. That's very impressive, especially in a league suddenly filled with great young talent at the position. Not to be overlooked, we have Ryan's supporting cast... Atlanta's offensive line has been brilliant in pass protection so far this year, as Ryan has only been sacked twice in 4 games. With such great protection, Ryan has had plenty of time to get the ball to a group of playmakers that includes WR Roddy White (1,382 yards in 2008) and future HOF TE Tony Gonzalez. And of course, I have yet to mention RB Michael Turner (1,699 yards in 2008). Point blank: the Falcons offense is a handful for any opponent.

The key matchup: Bears LBs vs Tony Gonzalez
Brian Urlacher was the best cover LB in the game... and in the Cover 2, he was asked to cover the deep middle zone, where TEs make their payday. Without Urlacher, replacements Hunter Hillenmeyer and Nick Roach have struggled mightily in pass coverage. Thankfully, up to this point, opposing QBs have failed to expose that weakness with errant throws. However, the Ryan-to-Gonzalez connection is too good for these LBs to handle.

The X factor on offense for the Falcons: WR Michael Jenkins
Jenkins, the #2 WR, would have led the Bears in receiving last year (777 yards in 2008). He is a deep threat and a very nice compliment to White. With the Bears secondary being so generous this year, and all of their attention focused on White and Gonzalez, look for Jenkins to burn the Bears deep on more than one occasion.

When the Bears have the ball.
The Bears have had two weeks to prepare for this match-up, and have plenty of film on the Falcons from last year's game, and this season. In theory, the extra week should have allowed QB Jay Cutler to further improve his development within the offense, and get more comfortable with his young WRs (Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Johnny Knox). However, the extra week also allowed Ron Turner to expand the playbook in preparation for this game. Don't be surprised to see some new sprinkles and formations on Sunday night, as the Bears could be cooking something special up for the Falcons.

The key matchup: RB Matt Forte vs the Falcons front four.
The Falcons defense is allowing a whopping 4.9 ypc on the ground this year, and Forte's knee appears to be getting healthier, after bursting for two big runs (61 and 37T) vs Detroit prior to the bye week. Look for the Bears to attack with the run, perhaps using pulls and traps that the Falcons haven't seen on film.

The X Factor on offense for the Bears: TE Greg Olsen
Greg Olsen has been relatively quiet between the 20s this year, as opposing defenses have keyed on shutting him down. However, he's still a favorite target of Cutler, with 2 TDs in the red zone. Defenses are becoming more aware of deep threat Johnny Knox, and will have to give him more attention at some point, taking some of the focus away from Olsen.

Side notes from the NFC North:

Vikings: In continuing with my weekly Vikings run D report (in the pre-season, I warned that the Vikings days of dominant run D was nearing an end, as Pat Williams turns 37 years old), Minnesota's run defense is sliding down the charts to #12 after week 5. They're allowing 3.8 ypc, and 96 yards a game, down from their #1 ranking in 2008 (3.3 and 76.9). Last week they gave up 122 yards on 4.1 ypc to the woeful Rams, and they are entering back-to-back games at home vs Baltimore and on the road at Pittsburgh. Oh, the times they are a changin. I expect the Vikings to lose one of those two games, and if the ball bounces the wrong way... they might drop both.

Packers: The Green Bay offensive line didn't allow a sack last week! Too bad it doesn't count in the box score, as they had the week off. The Packers have entered desperation mode, and called up their former tackle, Mark Tauscher, last week to help fix the situation. To put that in perspective, signing Tauscher is the equivalent of the Bears signing Fred Miller last year.

Lions: #1 pick, Matthew Stafford, is still nursing a knee injury (suffered vs the Bears), and will likely sit out Sunday's game at Green Bay. It's tough for Stafford, as he was really showing great signs of improvement with the Lions big win over Washington, and a 296 yard performance vs the Bears in Soldier Field. Daunte Culpepper will make his second straight start for the Lions, who also have knee injury concerns with their #1 play maker, Calvin Johnson.

By the Numbers: Cutler & Orton

SackMan — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:03:03 -0000

Kyle Orton and the 5-0 Denver Broncos have everyone and their grandma talking about the Jay Cutler trade... and comparing the two QBs. Some of the commentary around the web and sports talk radio is quite a stunning over-reaction. There are the small collection of Bear fan-Orton supporters, who contend the Bears got it all wrong by trading away Orton. And, there are Broncos fans who, at the moment, do not miss Jay Cutler.

I just wanted to breakdown some numbers, and let you all draw your own conclusions.

In 38 career games, Kyle Orton is 26-12, with a career QB rating of 75.1, and a 56.5 COMP%

Orton (40 total TDs) averages 1 TD (passing and rushing) for every 26.95 pass attempts
Orton (32 total turnovers) averages 1 turnover (INT or fumble) for every 32.66 pass attempts

TD/Turnover ratio: Orton averages 1.25 TDs, per every turnover he makes

3.4% of Orton's pass attempts result in a passing TD

W-L in 2005 = 10-5 | Bears overall D ranking = #2
W-L in 2007 = 2-1 | Bears overall D ranking = #28
W-L in 2008 = 9-6 | Bears overall D ranking = #21
W-L in 2009 = 5-0 | Broncos overall D ranking = #6

Orton has 9 games in his career with a QB rating > 90

vs DET 2005 = 103.3
vs GB 2007 = 103.2
@ DET 2008 = 121.4
vs MIN 2008 = 114.5
@ HOU 2008 = 97.1
@ CIN 2009 = 100.7
@ OAK 2009 = 92.1
vs DAL 2009 = 117.5
vs NE 2009 = 96.7

Orton has 8 games in his career with a QB rating < 50

vs CIN 2005 = 14.7
@ NO 2005 = 43.3
vs SF 2005 = 42.8
vs GB 2005 = 23.7
vs ATL 2005 = 39.6
@ MIN 2008 = 39.1
vs NO 2008 = 49.2
vs GB 2008 = 48.7

In 41 career games, Jay Cutler is 20-21, with a career QB rating of 87.3, and a 62.6 COMP%

Cutler (66 total TDs) averages 1 TD (passing and rushing) for every 20.44 pass attempts
Cutler (47 total turnovers) averages 1 turnover (INT or fumble) for every 28.70 pass attempts

TD/Turnover ratio: Cutler averages 1.40 TDs, per every turnover he makes

4.6% of Cutler's pass attempts result in a passing TD

W-L in 2006 = 2-3 | Broncos overall D ranking = #14
W-L in 2007 = 7-9 | Broncos overall D ranking = #19
W-L in 2008 = 8-8 | Broncos overall D ranking = #29
W-L in 2009 = 3-1 | Bears overall D ranking = #7

Cutler has 21 games in his career with a QB rating > 90

@ SD 2006 = 97.6
@ ARI 2006 = 101.7
vs JAC 2007 = 96.6
vs PIT 2007 = 106.7
vs GB 2007 = 95.7
vs TEN 2007 = 137.0
@ CHI 2007 = 96.4
vs KC 2007 = 141.0
@ HOU 2007 = 95.5
vs MIN 2007 = 106.4
@ OAK 2008 = 137.5
vs SD 2008 = 109.6
vs NO 2008 = 93.3
vs TB 2008 = 96.1
@ CLE 2008 = 107.9
@ ATL 2008 = 106.4
@ NYJ 2008 = 94.8
vs KC 2008 = 102.7
vs PIT 2009 = 104.7
@ SEA 2009 = 126.4
vs DET 2009 = 100.4

Cutler has only 4 games in his career with a QB rating < 60* (On Orton's comparison, I went < 50)

@ OAK 2007 = 45.6
@ SD 2007 = 32.7
vs OAK 2008 = 49.8
@ GB 2009 = 43.2

Preview: Bears (3-1) BYE WEEK

SackMan — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:14:51 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

When will Juaquin Iglesias finally step onto the playing field?

Browse more photos »

The Bears will be sitting on their couches, and checking their fantasy teams like the rest us this Sunday. Although, that shouldn't be anything new for Juaquin Iglesias. So, while we're on the bye, let's:

1. Recap last week
2. Look at some key numbers
3. Talk about wide receivers, and
4. Take a look at the division

Week 4 Recap

The Bears completed Lovie Smith’s 1^st quarter of the season with a convincing 48-24 victory at home over the Detroit Lions. It was a tale of two halves. The Lions came into Soldier Field on a high note, after winning for the first time in their last 20 games, and picked up were they left off in the first half. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford looked pretty sharp picking away at the Bears soft secondary, but Jay Cutler answered him, and the first half ended in a 21-21 tie. The game shifted on Johnny Knox’s TD return to open the second half, and the Bears pulled away to a large margin of victory.

Among the positives of the game were Matt Forte’s two big runs (61 and 37T), as the running game had not made much impact in the first 3 weeks of the season. On the flip side, the Bears still struggled in pass coverage, and saw many of their blitzes get stonewalled once again. They’ll have the bye week to remedy some of the problems and get healthy for a trip to Atlanta on Sunday Night Football next week.

By the numbers:

14.0: The Bears current sack total, ranking them 3^rd in the league behind the Vikings (16.0) and Broncos (15.0). Last season the Bears finished with just 28 sacks. In four games this year, they’ve already reached half that total. Adewale Ogunleye leads the Bears with 4.5, and only 4 of the sacks were recorded by non lineman (Manning, Briggs, Roach, and Afalava).

104.7, 126.4, & 100.4: Jay Cutler’s QB rating in each of the last 3 weeks. The last Chicago Bear QB to have a rating over 100 in 3 consecutive weeks was Jack Concannon in 1970.

3.8: The Bears current team rushing average per carry, a point down from last year’s final average of 3.9.

News around the league (six degrees of separation from Juaquin Iglesias).

This weeks NFL headliners were both WR related. 1^st round pick Michael Crabtree finally signed a contract with the 49ers. It’s hard to say if Crabtree will have any significant impact for the 49ers this year, after such a late start. The other big news: the Cleveland Browns traded Braylon Edwards to the New York Jets.for special teams player Jason Trusnik, WR Chansi Stuckey and a pair of draft picks.

Edwards caused some problems in a Cleveland night club this weekend, punching Lebron James' friend... and that seems to be his plane ticket out of town (who knew the King really is the King of Cleveland?). However, last Sunday Derek Anderson threw the ball to rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi a whopping 13 times, finishing with 8 catches for 148 yards. With Edwards now out of the picture, Massaquoi is now the Browns default #1 WR.

Massaquoi was one of the names that draft experts were linking to the Bears last April. However, with Massaquoi off the board and unable to work a deal with Arizona for Anquan Boldin, the Bears traded out of the 2nd round entirely, and eventually selected Oklahoma WR Juaquin Iglesias (pick #99) in the 3rd round.

Fellow rookie WRs like Massaquoi (CLE pick #50), Percy Harvin (MIN pick #22), Kenny Britt (TEN pick #30), Mike Wallace (PIT pick #84), Louis Murphy (OAK pick #124), and Johnny Knox (CHI pick #140) are all having immediate impacts on their teams. However, Iglesias hasn't even been activated on a game day yet, and has been absolutely buried on the depth chart below Rashied Davis and former practice squadder Devin Aromashodu. This is not exactly a good indicator for the future.

I normally would give a rookie WR more leeway, especially since trends in the NFL lean towards the "magical 3rd year." Heck, last year we saw Earl Bennett be a total non factor, while he got acclimated to the league. However, the Bears, Titans, and Jaguars presented perhaps the easiest opportunity you'll ever see for a rookie WR to earn playing time in this league. Just ask Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, and second year man Mike Sims-Walker. But, thus far... Iglesias has completely dropped the ball… literally.

Side notes from the NFC North:

So far the Vikings haven’t allowed a rushing TD yet*… only the 49ers can share that honor. However, the Vikings are allowing 3.7 yards per carry and 89.5 yards per game this year (vs the Browns, Lions, 49ers, and Packers). While those numbers are very nice, it’s up from 3.3 and 76.9 last year. Expect those numbers to increase when they face the Ravens and Steelers in back to back weeks (6 & 7).

The Packers offensive line continues to get thrashed, allowing 20 sacks in 4 games. At this rate, Aaron Rodgers might not survive the season in one piece. The bye week couldn’t come at a better time, and I’m sure Rodgers will spend much of it in a hot tub.

Matthew Stafford update*: After a horrendous start for the Lions in his 1^st two games (1 TD to 5 INTs and a QB rating of 40.5), the #1 pick has turned the corner with a win vs Washington (87.8 QB rating), and a 296 yard day against the Bears (89.6 QB rating). With targets like Calvin Johnson and rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew, Stafford should settle in nicely, as long as he stays healthy. He left the Bears game late in the second half with a knee injury, and hopefully will not miss too much time.

*I’ve been forecasting that the Vikings days of dominant run D are nearing an end, mainly due to Pat Williams turning 37 years old.
*I'll keep tabs on Matthew Stafford all season, as I eventually try to draw a comparison to Troy Aikman, who started every game for the 1-15 Cowboys in 1989, after also being the #1 pick in the draft.

Week 3 Preview: Bears (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)

SackMan — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:12:53 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

about 1 month ago: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (8) reacts after being hit by San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis in the second quarter of an NFL football game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009. Hasselbeck injured his ribs on the play. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Browse more photos »

There's been many smiling faces in Chicago this week, after the Bears big win against the Super Bowl champs. But, now... it's time to turn the page to Seattle, as the Bears head out west this Sunday for a 3:05 CT start on FOX.

Week 2 Recap

The Seahawks are coming off a 23-10 road loss to division rival San Francisco. It was a brutal day for Seattle, as a depleted defense gave up 256 rushing yards to the 49ers, including a 207 yard effort by Frank Gore. Adding "injury to insult," QB Matt Hasselbeck left the game just before the half with a cracked rib, and backup LT Sean Locklear, filling in for the injured All-Pro Walter Jones, also left the game with an injured ankle. Seattle's star LB, Lofa Tatupu, exited in the 1st QTR with a hamstring injury. Backup QB Seneca Wallace, threw a TD and an INT in relief of Hasselbeck, however the Seahawks got shut out in the second half.

The Bears thrilled the crowd with a stunning 17-14 last second victory in their home opener over the Steelers in the rain. Robbie Gould sealed the deal with a 44 yard FG with 15 seconds left. QB Jay Cutler had a near perfect day against the vaunted Pittsburgh defense... completing 71% of his passes with 2 TDs and zero INTs and a 104.7 QB rating (and nobody cared what kind of face he made at the post-game press conference). The Bears defense held Big Ben in check, but the new look LB unit (minus Brian Urlacher and Pisa Tinoisamoa) did allow 105 yards on the ground to a Steelers team that has struggled to run the ball. The game served as a coming out party for rookie WR Johhny Knox, who was targeted 9 times by Cutler and led the Bears with 6 catches for 70 yards and a game tying TD. The Bears were aided by two missed FGs by Steelers K Jeff Reed. However, had Reed made both kicks, Jay Cutler still would've had the ball on a final possession with an opportunity to win the game

Quick Numbers:

256: The total number of rushing yards allowed by the Seahawks in last week's loss to the 49ers.
2: The number of injured LTs (Sean Locklear & Walter Jones), injured starting LBs (Lofa Tatupa & Leroy Hill), and injured starting CBs (Marcus Trufant & Josh Wilson) for the Seahawks.
104.7: Jay Cutler's QB rating last week vs the Steelers.
2.2: Matt Forte's average yards per carry so far in 2009.

Key Injuries:

SEA LB Lofa Tatupu (hamstring) Q
SEA WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (back) P
SEA QB Matt Hasselbeck (ribs) Q
SEA CB Marcus Trufant (back) O
SEA CB Josh Wilson (ankle) O
SEA LB Leroy Hill (groin) O
SEA LT Walter Jones (knee) P
SEA LT Sean Locklear (ankle) P

CHI LB Brian Urlacher (wrist) IR
CHI LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) Q
CHI TE Desmond Clark (ribs) Q
CHI DE Alex Brown (ankle) Q

When the Seahawks have the ball.
With the injuries to Hasselbeck and LTs Jones and Locklear, the outlook sure doesn't look promising for the Seattle passing game... especially if backup QB Seneca Wallace starts in place of Hasselbeck. Look for the Seahawks to play a conservative field position battle and keep the ball on the ground to avoid turnovers. RBs Julius Jones and Edgerrin James should challenge the Bears "B team" of LBs on early downs, and big TE John Carlson could be the key to third down conversions. TJ Houshmandzadeh is on a mission to prove Bears GM Jerry Angelo wrong for not wanting to sign him in the offseason... it'll be hard to prove if the Bears pass rush continues it's early season trend of putting heat on opposing QBs. However, the ankle injury to Bears starting RDE Alex Brown could neutralize the injuries to the Seahawks LTs.

The key matchup: LB Lance Briggs vs the Seahawks running game
Expecting a heavy dose of the run game (to either protect the injured Hasselbeck, or minimize the less capable Wallace), Lance Briggs will have to step up and do most of the dirty work himself.

The X factor on offense for the Seahawks: RB Justin Forsett
The second year scat back from California got very heavily involved in the offense last week with 5 carries for 35 yards, and 6 catches for 57 yards. If Wallace starts in place of Hasselbeck, expect Forsett to be an easy bail out option when the primary targets are covered.

When the Bears have the ball.
Seattle is normally a very tough and loud place to play as a visiting team... but the Bears offense could feast against a banged up Seahawk defense. The Bears have yet to establish a productive run game in the first two weeks of the season, partially because of matchups. They faced a new 3-4 Packers D on opening night, and didn't have any fresh game film to study from. Then, of course they followed that by facing the always tough Steelers 3-4 run D. An injured Seattle LB unit could be just the cure for the Bears running woes. However, look for the Bears to do the unexpected and "get off the bus passing" downfield with play action in the first series... to set up the run. They'll want to create an early opportunity to run against 7 man fronts instead of 8, by spreading the field vertically... which could make for some big gains by Matt Forte and build confidence in their run game.

The key matchup: WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Hester vs the Seahawks depleted CBs
We've seen Knox and Hester get behind All-Pro Charles Woodson, and we've seen Knox find holes in the Steelers defense. Now, the the two burners will get the opportunity to test a wounded Seattle secondary, who only have 3 healthy CBs. Cutler is already smelling blood.

The X Factor on offense for the Bears: TE Greg Olsen
Jay Cutler's new BFF has been shut down for the most part in the first two weeks, as defensive coordinators schemed to make someone else beat them. However, the Seahawks are so banged up on defense, that it should be quite difficult for them to remove Olsen from the equation.

Side notes from the NFC North:

Earlier in the pre-season, I warned that the Vikings days of dominant run D was coming to an end. Pat Williams, the key to their stout run D, turns 37 years old on October 24th... and so far this season, my prediction looks on target. Through two games, the Vikings are allowing 4.0 YPC and 109 YPG, to the woeful Browns and Lions. Small sample size, yes... but, it's the Browns (#32 in total offense) and Lions (#30 in total offense) we're talkin about here. That's a problem for Minnesota, especially with Frank Gore coming into town after a 207 yard performance.

Speaking of problems, the Packers offensive line has allowed a whopping 10 sacks and 19 QB hits in the first two games... including a 5 sack performance by Bengals DE Antwan Odom last week. If that's not bad enough, starting LT Chad Clifton is expected to miss the next two games with an ankle injury as the Pack go on the road for the first time this year to St. Louis and Minnesota.

The overall #1 pick of the draft, Matthew Stafford, is off to a horrendous start for the Lions, with 1 TD to 5 INTs and a QB rating of 40.5 in the first two games. I'll keep tabs on Stafford all season, as I eventually try to draw a comparison to Troy Aikman, who started every game for the 1-15 Cowboys in 1989, after also being the #1 pick in the draft.

5 Things "I Think I know" About the Bears

SackMan — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:23:22 -0000

After two weeks of football... here are some quick observatuons:

1. The Bears running game will break out big in Seattle. The Bears have struggled to run so far against a Packer defense that they had no film of, and a Steelers defense that is very tough to run on. Well... Seattle is the perfect cure. The Seahawks allowed the 49ers to rack up 256 rushing yards this Sunday, watching Frank Gore tally 207 of them all by himself. In week 1, they let the Rams average 4.3 ypc on 17 carries, before St. Louis had to abandon the run, because they were down 14-0 at the half... and 28-0 in the 3rd QTR.

2. Jay Cutler is going to turn Johnny Knox into a star, while his former favorite WRs, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, fade out of the fantasy football limelight. Jerry Angelo will have the last laugh, as he reminds everyone that the QB makes the WR, not the other way around. Knox (8 catches 152 yards 1 TD) has the benefit of playing with Cutler, while Marshall (7 catches 61 yards 0 TD), and Royal (5 catches 38 yards 0 TD) leave yards on the field playing with Kyle Orton.

3. Frank Omiyale can become an important part of the offense, if he can just block somebody, anybody, in pass protection. Omiyale continues to look like a turnstyle in pass protection, but the guy's got wheels. Look for the Bears to keep running the bubble screens and start pulling guards more in the run game to take advantage of Omiyale's only apparent strength: He's a very willing down field blocker, when he gets out ahead of the ball carrier.

4. Rod Marinelli was the best off-season free agent signing the Bears made in 2009. Marinelli's unit is clearly getting more pressure on the QB than it did last year under previous coaching. Pressure by the numbers:

Game 1 @ Green Bay
Bears: 4 sacks, 9 tackles for a loss, and 9 QB hits
Packers: 2 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, and only 3 QB hits

Game 2 vs Pittsburgh
Bears: 2 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, and 5 QB hits
Steelers: only 1 sack, only 2 tackles for a loss, and only 2 QB hits.

5. The Bears soft zone coverage will ultimately be the death of this team, if they continue to allow WRs to run right through it. Lovie Smith is doing an excellent job at adjusting after possessions, and confusing the opposing QB with different blitz looks and coverages. However, it's time to evolve this defense from the start, and match it to the current personnel. It's hard to run the Cover 2, when you don't have the talent at safety. But the Bears do have two big physical corners in Charles Tillman (6'1" 198) and Zachary Bowman (6'1" 193). Let them play more physical in some tighter coverages.