
SagehenMacGyver47
Dec 18, 2009 Jun 01, 2012 143 8878
a fan of
Kansas City Royals
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Draft 2012: What Your Team Has To Spend (baseballamerica.com)
"The numbers build off the bonus set for the No. 1 pick, which is $7.2 million this year. Every pick from 2-338 is expressed as a percentage of the No. 1 pick, down to $125,000 for the final picks of the 10th round. A team's total budget for the first 10 rounds is the sum of the numbers for all of its picks, so teams that have extra picks and early picks have more money to spend.
...
Teams can spread the money among their picks in the top 10 rounds in different ways so long as they stay under the total budget. For example, the Astros could sign their No. 1 pick for $5.2 million and spread the extra $2 million among other players. However, if a team fails to sign a player, it cannot apply the budgeted amount for that pick to other players and loses that amount from its overall budget.
Also, bonuses for players signed after the first 10 rounds do not count against the overall budget, unless they exceed $100,000."
The Royals have the 17th-most to spend, with $6.1M.
Royals from Sickel's "Sleeper List"
- Jason Adam, RHP, Royals: 2.14 ERA in 34 innings for High-A Wilmington with a 29/10 K/BB and 31 hits allowed. Stock climbing quickly, projects as a mid-rotation starter and is a local kid from Overland Park, Kansas. Age 20.
- Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Royals: Dominican outfielder off to a fast start at Low-A Kane County, .343/.420/.457 in 105 at-bats, 13 walks, 22 strikeouts. Showed good power in rookie ball and has brought that forward. Just 18 years old. Destined for Top 50 lists, if not higher, if he stays hot.
- Brian Fletcher, OF, Royals: Hitting .327/.395/.416 with 11 walks, 20 strikeouts in 101 at-bats for High-A Wilmington. Has been an excellent performer since college days at Auburn and has major league bloodlines as the son of Scott, but mediocre tools and unconventional hitting style hold him back with scouts. Age 23.
- D'andre Toney, OF, Royals: Extended spring training. Toolsy outfielder hit .340/.432/.587 in Arizona Rookie League last year after being a 14th round pick. Age 20.
BTBS article on April W/L records: A recent study conducted of Phillies' monthly winning percentages (dating from 2000 to 2011) indicates a minor correlation between April success (or lack thereof) and end-of-season winning percentage.
Instead, the study indicates performances in the months May and June are more telling than April.
To begin the study, I found Phillies' month-by-month records from 2000 to present on Baseball Reference and placed them in Excel. I then ran a multiple regression analysis with the Y variable equaling season winning percentage and the X variables equaling the various monthly winning percentages. I did not include the instances where games were played in March or October:
* April: .127
* May: .244
* June: .219
* July: .143
* August: .175
* September: .178The higher the number, the more closely that month is linked to the end-of-season winning percentage.
(Not exactly peer-reviewed, but interesting nonetheless, considering the current Royals April Disaster.)
Sickels: Minor League Notes, re: Myers
" **Kansas City Royals outfield prospect Wil Myers was hampered by injuries last year for Double-A Northwest Arkansas, hitting .254/.353/.393 with less power than anticipated, although he still impressed scouts with his tools and offensive potential and was only 19 years old. Returning to NW Arkansas this season, he's hitting .333/.366/.641 through nine games, although his BB/K has deteriorated with a 2/14 mark in 39 at-bats. The strikeout rate is much higher than last year, with a lower walk rate. Is he boosting his power output by being more aggressive, and will this backfire at higher levels? Only time will tell."
SI/Fangraphs power rankings
I don't want to spoil the surprise: start at the bottom, and work your way up.
How the Chiefs/Pioli evaluate draft prospects (Slightly OT)
How the other half lives. A user-post from Arrowhead Pride, but an interesting look at Pioli's stated philosophies (via War Room) and what Pioli has actually done. MLB drafts are usually considered more "best player available" where NFL leans toward "filling needs", but that didn't seem to be the case with the Colon pick, so there may be more similarities in MLB/NFL draft philosophies than we think.
Fangraphs - Top 15 Prospects: Kansas City Royals
Not really anything we didn't already know, but this is worth a note:
"SLEEPER ALERT: Humberto Arteaga, SS: Signed for just over $1 million in 2010 Arteaga is a strong defender with good range, hands and actions. He also has a solid arm. He doesn’t project to hit for power and he isn’t a stolen base threat so his offensive value will be tied up in his ability to hit for a decent average. He recently turned 18 and may spend another season in extended spring training before an assignment to short-season ball."
...Sandy Garces has agreed to terms with the KC Royals as a LHP.
"A few months removed from the outfield, Sandy Garces has agreed to terms with the KC Royals as a LHP.."
(Didn't see this mentioned anywhere, figured it was something to note.)
"His trainer Leo Perez decided to place him on the mound due to his plus arm strength and feel for Curveball. Leo a former pitcher and CUBS farm hand cleaned his mechanics and thought him the fundamental approach of pitching. Sandy is now 17 years old, 6’1, 175lb, he sits 87-91mph with a feel for Curveball and Change-up. In a few DPL appearances Garces looked like he had been on the mound since little league baseball."
Update on the "Low-% Runner/Floater/Layups" - KU vs OU
Less activity in the OU game for Runner/Floater/Layups, where the initial driving shot was a bit careless, reckless, or just low-% in general. I counted 6 of them, two earning fouls, which lead to a really small sample size. 2 of the 4 non-fouls were made, and 1 was rebounded by KU, where Wesley got a put-back tip-in. All-in-all, a 75% success ratio on the non-foul shots, and a 83% success ratio overall.
Using similar points-per-possession methodology, we'd end up at 4 points for makes, 2.8 for the 4 FTs, and 2 for the put-back, totaling 8.8 points in 6 possessions - 1.5 PPP.
(Note: this game, there were more "grey area" shots than last. When TT makes a drive, I know his style well enough to make a pretty good guess at whether he had a real angle to the basket or whether he was just throwing it up and hoping. With Releford, though, he's got an unusual style. For instance, one of the fouls occurred with Releford taking off for what I presume was a layup, but he was going full speed and was like 8 feet from the basket - maybe he had a better shot planned, but I had to figure it was not high percentage. I tried to be even - if there was one that looked iffy, I'd call it a "yes" then call the next iffy one a "no". Enough about that.)
As for missed layups, all 3 were rebounded by KU, none resulted in put-backs. More evidence that the point-blank misses are not as harmful as they seem.
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Kansas Basketball: Are The Low-% Runner/Floater/Layups Really "Bad Shots"?
Really solid Fanpost from SagehenMacGyver47 yesterday. This definitely earned some extra run on FRONT PAGE FRIDAY!!! Good cannon fodder for a Friday before playing Oklahoma. - Owen
A lot of times people think those are bad shots when guards drive in there and shoot the floaters. They probably have a 20 percent chance to go in, but you have a 60 percent chance to rebound behind it, so those aren’t bad shots.
- Bill Self
After initially reading the quote from Bill Self, I was skeptical - I mean, he can't be happy with running floaters at 20%, can he? And could he really expect a rebounding rate of 60% when the team's overall offensive rebounding rate is about 35%?
I was more skeptical than most, I think, but after some discussion I figured if we assumed that Self was ballparking it or exaggerating a bit--maybe he was fudging from 30% and 50%, or thereabouts--he might actually be right, or at least close. (Note: Self didn't mention fouls, so that muddies the water a little bit.)
So what happened against Kansas State?
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More info on Keon Stowers (not as much as I'd hoped)
Offer list included KU, ISU, Louisville, Troy, South Alabama.
Keon went 144-3 in the Discus at Region 3-4A (of South Carolina), placing first.
Coming out of HS in 2010, ESPN had him at 6'2'', 237 lbs. with a 5.30 sec 40. A SC Univ. blog described him in 2010 as "a 6'5 260 linebacker from Rock Hill Northwestern who signed with Georgia Military. He can run sideline to sideline even with that size". They seem to disagree by 3 inches and 23 pounds and about half a second in the 40. While I don't trust ESPN's numbers farther than I can throw them, he was a LB/DL in HS, so 237 could be about right. (GMC listed him as being 6'4" 250 as a 2010 signee.)
Sounds like he was still a rotation guy at Georgia Military, though maybe I'm misinterpreting this quote: "'Keon Stowers is coming on rotating at nose guard with ‘big Daniel’ [McCullers],' Williams said".
A blog post from a HS teacher about Keon's trek through troubles:
http://joejphoto.wordpress.com/2010/02/03/hope-knocked-on-my-door-this-morning/
I’ve seen Keon Stowers many times in jeans, baggy shorts, t-shirts, football uniforms, and polo shirts – but I had never seen him in a coat-and-tie. My brain just couldn’t make sense of it until he said, “It’s Signin’ Day. I was gonna see if you could come down and get a couple of snaps when I sign.” As he spoke he held his giant hands up like he was pressing the shutter on a tiny imaginary camera.
....
The semester was pretty much a battle of attrition. Nobody won. Keon failed, and so did I. But here’s the thing – I genuinely liked the guy. I guess that’s the way it is with natural-born leaders. Besides bad attitude, leadership was something else that oozed from Keon. If you weren’t attracted to him, at the very least you had to be intrigued by him
....
Today, while I “got a few snaps,” Keon signed a commitment to play football at Georgia Military College. The room was crammed with family, teammates, and coaches. He told us all that his plan was to work hard and play hard for GMC, get his grades up, then play Division I ball.
Coaches By The Numbers: Kansas Chooses Charlie Weis to Turn Program Around
I just came across this site, but it is amazingly in depth. Do they know what they're talking about? Not sure. They have at least done a ton of legwork.
From 2001-Present, the Kansas Jayhawks have played an average strength of schedule of 29.25 (1 being the hardest and 120 being the easiest). From 2005-2009 during Weis tenure, Notre Dame played an average strength of schedule of 28.60. From 2005-2009, Charlie Weis had an averaged recruiting class of 13.60 and won 56.45% of his overall games. Over the last decade, Kansas has had an average recruiting ranking of 59.00.
If you haven’t connected the dots yet, we are trying to point out that with a whole lot better talent and a very comparable schedule, Charlie Weis was barely winning more games than he was losing at Notre Dame, a school with virtually every resource you need to be successful. In fact, Weis only coached seven games (11.29% of his total games) at Notre Dame with inferior talent. Since 2004, Kansas coaches have coached 56.67% of their games with inferior talent.
The past doesn’t predict the future, and we can hope along with the Jayhawk nation that Coach Weis has learned what he needed to learn at Notre Dame to be a more successful head coach the second time around. However, the past does help us plan for the future, and By The Numbers, we are having a hard time planning for success with this hire.
Ivan Maisel's take
Some skepticism, but he seems to generally approve:
Weis blustered his way beneath the Golden Dome, discussing the "decided schematic advantage" he would bring to the Irish. When Notre Dame won 19 games in his first two seasons, he appeared correct. When they won 16 games over the next three seasons, he appeared on the unemployment line.
Notre Dame, for all of its resources, is a familial place. After his fast start, Weis's ego veered toward imperialism. He burned bridges that he needed when his 2007 team fell to 3-9. He left South Bend a wiser man.
....
In the bigger picture, Weis is who Kansas needs.
....
Weis will bring Kansas a profile it didn't have under Turner Gill or his predecessor, Mark Mangino. Weis is good in the living room. His favorite verbal weapon is the needle, which is the Official State Figure of Speech of his native New Jersey. But his players play hard for him.
Unless you are a cynical, fun-hating bastard like me, do not read this
As noted by Gopher86, the Bill Callahan similarity is striking. Not cool.
Sorry for the negativity. I just want our expectations to be in the right place.
OT: Weis to KU - ND'ers, what say you?
Is this a good hire? I've got all the KU insight I need over at RCT, but what do the Notre Dame fans think about this?.... Was Weis really that bad, or was it too lofty expectations? Also: WEIRD.
Football players speak out about Gill
By Mike Vernon
Sunday, November 27, 2011
"We all know he loves us like he’s our own father, we’re his sons." -Jordan Webb"I think it’s unfair. Got to give him an equal opportunity. Everybody out here loves coach Gill. I’m kind of speechless about everything that’s going on right now. He let us know that he cares, that he loves us, to keep our heads high, and keep fighting. I’m sure he thinks the same thing, two years, you only have so much time to rebuild off something. That’s clearly not enough time, I don’t think at all." -Greg Brown
"He comes to a school that’s struggling and in two years, they get rid of him. I don’t really feel like he got an opportunity to prove what he’s capable of and I think it really speaks on the university as a whole. A team doesn’t go 5-19 because of one person, but because he’s the head man, he’s going to take the blame for it. While it is looked at as coach Gill’s fault being the head coach, it’s really a reflection on us as players and the failures that we had and just not being able to succeed. I really take that to the heart." -Toben Opurum
"Now you don’t know who you’re playing for. I guess that’s part of life and part of business." -Kale Pick
"He’ll watch what you’re doing in the classroom, ask you about your social life, but then, when you got on the football field, he would critique you there." -Steven Johnson
"At the end of the day, we can’t lose each other. We lost a great coach, but in our minds, we’ve got to stick together." -Darius Willis
Kentucky's Kids Grow Up Against Kansas -- Grantland
Mostly about the UK youngsters, but some bits about how KU played:
For most of the game, Kansas players with grown-man strength outmuscled [freshman Anthony Davis]. Thomas Robinson, a refrigerator-shaped forward, left him flailing on a predictable spin move, fifteen feet from the basket. On another play, Jeff Withey, the Jayhawks center, flicked Davis aside for an easy put-back dunk.
draysbay: What the Sanchez trade says about [Wade] Davis
Some more insight into Melky and Sanchez, and their comparative values. The Davis comparison doesn't even make that much sense b/c he has several years of team control left.
The Braves and Royals have already discussed a Jurrjens trade, and the Braves have an interest in minor league outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers, amongst several other prospects in K.C.'s deep farm system. The Royals are known to be targeting veteran starting pitching on the trade market this winter so the two sides would seem like a fit as trading partners. As Bowman notes, Cain could be seen by the Braves as a future center field option if Michael Bourn isn't signed to an extension.
Slightly OT - The inside/outside view of forecasting
We see this all the time when evaluating players and teams, but here's a Nobel Laureate discussing it in a non-baseball setting:
After meeting every Friday afternoon for about a year, we had constructed a detailed outline of the syllabus, written a couple of chapters, and run a few sample lessons. We all felt we had made good progress. Then, as we were discussing procedures for estimating uncertain quantities, an exercise occurred to me. I asked everyone to write down their estimate of how long it would take us to submit a finished draft of the textbook to the Ministry of Education. I was following a procedure that we already planned to incorporate into our curriculum: the proper way to elicit information from a group is not by starting with a public discussion, but by confidentially collecting each person’s judgment. I collected the estimates and jotted the results on the blackboard. They were narrowly centered around two years: the low end was one and a half, the high end two and a half years.
....
Then I turned to Seymour, our curriculum expert, and asked whether he could think of other teams similar to ours that had developed a curriculum from scratch. Seymour said he could think of quite a few, and it turned out that he was familiar with the details of several. I asked him to think of these teams when they were at the same point in the process as we were. How much longer did it take them to finish their textbook projects?
"You know, I never realized this before, but in fact not all the teams at a stage comparable to ours ever did even complete their task. A substantial fraction of the teams ended up failing to finish the job."
This was worrisome; we had never considered the possibility that we might fail. My anxiety rising, I asked how large he estimated that fraction was. "About 40 percent," he said.
"Those who finished, how long did it take them?"
"I cannot think of any group that finished in less than seven years," Seymour said, "nor any that took more than ten."
....
This embarrassing episode remains one of the most instructive experiences of my professional life. I had stumbled onto a distinction between two profoundly different approaches to forecasting....
The inside view is the one that all of us, including Seymour, spontaneously adopted to assess the future of our project. We focused on our specific circumstances and searched for evidence in our own experiences. We had a sketchy plan: we knew how many chapters we were going to write, and we had an idea of how long it had taken us to write the two that we had already done. The more cautious among us probably added a few months as a margin of error.
But extrapolating was a mistake. We were forecasting based on the information in front of us, but the chapters we wrote first were easier than others and our commitment to the project was probably at its peak....The argument for the outside view should be made on general grounds: if the reference class is properly chosen, the outside view will give an indication of where the ballpark is. It may suggest, as it did in our case, that the inside-view forecasts are not even close.
"People need to realize that players do get paid" - Collin Carrol, C for VTech and part-time columnist
Giving players more money won’t solve the insubordination. We already have more money than we know what to do with.
Scholarship football players received a check for $4,143 at the beginning of the season to cover room and board for the semester. Add to that a training camp check for $150, a Thanksgiving check for $150, a $400 meal enhancement check, $600 at the bowl game, and $15 in spending money after every home game. You’re looking at $5,533 in cash during the fall semester — not including the possibility of qualifying for a $2,775 Pell Grant.
....
When we finish playing football, we leave with a degree from Tech — valued at $5,254 per semester for in-state tuition. Tutors are at our disposal and paid for by the athletic department.
In one semester, the benefits total $14,551 per player.
The NCAA limits the work week to 19 hours for student-athletes, which includes practice, meetings and weight-lifting. Over a 20-week season, we put in a total of 380 hours, at an hourly wage of $38.29.
While I understand we don’t have the luxury of allocating that $14,551 however we’d like, what else would we spend it on, other than food, clothes, toys and tuition? Even when we look solely at the cash, we’re in abundance.
A nice apartment in Blacksburg will cost roughly $450 per month, or $2,250 per semester. Purchase a Mega Flex meal plan for $1,459, and your meals are covered. With $5,533 in cash during the fall, this leaves athletes with $1,824 in extra spending money per semester, $364 per month, $81 per week or $12 per day. If someone can’t survive on $12 per day, when food and rent are taken care of, I question the admission process.
Interesting take on the lack of necessity for NCAA player stipends. My view is that players are being exploited without due compensation, but $38/hour makes it sound less unfair.
Thoughts on lefty-stacked lineup used by the Rays last night?
Facing right-handed Lewis, the Rays batted 3 RHH then 6 consecutive LHH, bucking convention. I've wondered for a while whether alternating L/R in the lineup causes more harm than good: scoring runs is usually about bunching good at-bats together, and forcing every other batter to hit against a same-handed pitcher works against that. And this is so that a hypothetical reliever can't get a series of L/L or R/R advantages in a hypothetical high-leverage situation later on? I say stack the lineup, put more pressure on the starter, and cross the unfavorable-reliever-matchup bridge when you come to it.
On August 18th, the Red Sox were 75-48 (.610), while the Rays were 66-56 (.541). Let's assume those records reflected the true talent levels for both teams.
Over their last 37 games, the Red Sox have gone 14-23. The probability of a .610 club winning less than or equal to 14 out of 37 games is .3%. The Rays have gone 23-15 over their last 38 games. The probability of a .540 team winning greater than or equal to 23 out of 38 games is 26%.
Sickels - Prospect Of The Day: Kelvin Herrera
I had forgotten about the elbow problems - the reason he is confined to the pen - but his numbers were impressive: starter-quality stuff pitching in relief.
2nd-basemen on the market - BtBS
Is Kelly Johnson a good fit for GMDM's Process? Former Brave, veteran presence, fields relatively well (also a left-handed bat, something the system is short on). Maybe he's going to have several suitors, but maybe not. Not that I'm giving up on Giavotella, but this article is a good list of potential 2B candidates - the "Sleepers" section has some interesting possibilities. And also Beckham is an intriguing reclamation project - risky but certainly viewed as a talented player, and Seitzer would have his work cut out for him.
Slightly OT: Fan's reaction to Irish loss
"I cried like an a**hole.......
by guilfordnd (2011-09-11 00:32:33)
"......for `15 minutes in the bathroom. and i[''m still drunk. I wanted to be as positive as I could the entire game until the pass. I crumpled up after that and cried and cried like I lost a good friend or some s--- after that pass. Tonight I let the small bluegill and two other panfish that were in my aquirium into the creek down the street. I figured I can't have anymore pussies in my man cave. I will catch some fish that will be a f---ing asshole ( like a bass) where every time I feed it it will dominate, and then s--- out the remains. call me wierd but I got nothing left. I don't know what else to do. I look forward to the fall but the gets harder and harder each year."
(Via This Week In Schadenfreude, one of my favorite weekly reads, as further example of unpleasant reactions to one's school's failings at college football.)
Report: Texas, Oklahoma officials meet
"Texas President William Powers Jr., athletic director DeLoss Dodds and women's athletic director Chris Plonsky were among a group of Texas officials who went to Oklahoma on Sunday....Oklahoma president David Boren was present at the meeting.
"In the meeting, Texas expressed its desire to keep the Big 12 together, while OU made it clear it plans to pursue membership in the Pac-12. But according to an OU athletic department source, Sooner officials agreed to wait as Texas works through its next move. It's OU's preference to go to the Pac-12 with the Longhorns, the source said, and OU is willing to wait for a short period of time while that remains a possibility before acting on its own."
You're An Internet Baseball Fan, And The Royals Make You Look Stupid
(BtBS linked to this)
I am skeptical of many parts of this, and on several levels, but decide for yourself.
One excerpt:
And so when I think "Internet baseball fan," I think likemindedness. This isn't a criticism. This is just the way it is. A lot of Internet baseball fans have a lot of the same opinions. That is an unavoidable consequence of so many people looking at the same information.
Can someone explain the benefit of a 16-team conference?
Sure, there's more overall revenue, and I suppose more "power" with more member institutions. But all I see is that each team's relevance gets watered down - the bigger the pond, the smaller the fish. ... For instance, why would current SEC members want to add A&M (and/or other teams)? That just makes it harder for LSU, UG, UF, etc. to win the SEC. ... Or is the only reason for expansion to add the state of Texas? Is "expansion" really just a euphemism for "adding Texas as a TV subscriber state"? Other than the Texas thing, is there a good reason to go to 16 teams?
Looking at Allowed wOBA vs. Expected - BtBS
"We're looking at how all batters faced have performed against a pitcher's handedness over the course of the season, and compare that to how well the pitcher actually did against these batters. An example...the set of batters that have faced CC Sabathia have hit for a collective weighted wOBA of .327 against all lefties, while the Cy Young favorite has actually allowed a wOBA of .280. "
Looks at individual pitchers as well as by-division and by-team. I suppose I don't need to tell you which team performed the worst compared to the expectations.
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