Mostly about the UK youngsters, but some bits about how KU played: For most of the game, Kansas players with grown-man strength outmuscled [freshman Anthony Davis]. Thomas Robinson, a refrigerator-shaped forward, left him flailing on a predictable spin move, fifteen feet from the basket. On another play, Jeff Withey, the Jayhawks center, flicked Davis aside for an easy put-back dunk.
Some more insight into Melky and Sanchez, and their comparative values. The Davis comparison doesn't even make that much sense b/c he has several years of team control left.
The Braves and Royals have already discussed a Jurrjens trade, and the Braves have an interest in minor league outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers, amongst several other prospects in K.C.'s deep farm system. The Royals are known to be targeting veteran starting pitching on the trade market this winter so the two sides would seem like a fit as trading partners. As Bowman notes, Cain could be seen by the Braves as a future center field option if Michael Bourn isn't signed to an extension.http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/braves-open-to-trading-jurrjens-prado.html
We see this all the time when evaluating players and teams, but here's a Nobel Laureate discussing it in a non-baseball setting: After meeting every Friday afternoon for about a year, we had constructed a detailed outline of the syllabus, written a couple of chapters, and run a few sample lessons. We all felt we had made good progress. Then, as we were discussing procedures for estimating uncertain quantities, an exercise occurred to me. I asked everyone to write down their estimate of how long it would take us to submit a finished draft of the textbook to the Ministry of Education. I was following a procedure that we already planned to incorporate into our curriculum: the proper way to elicit information from a group is not by starting with a public discussion, but by confidentially collecting each person’s judgment. I collected the estimates and jotted the results on the blackboard. They were narrowly centered around two years: the low end was one and a half, the high end two and a half years. .... Then I turned to Seymour, our curriculum expert, and asked whether he could think of other teams similar to ours that had developed a curriculum from scratch. Seymour said he could think of quite a few, and it turned out that he was familiar with the details of several. I asked him to think of these teams when they were at the same point in the process as we were. How much longer did it take them to finish their textbook projects? "You know, I never realized this before, but in fact not all the teams at a stage comparable to ours ever did even complete their task. A substantial fraction of the teams ended up failing to finish the job." This was worrisome; we had never considered the possibility that we might fail. My anxiety rising, I asked how large he estimated that fraction was. "About 40 percent," he said. "Those who finished, how long did it take them?" "I cannot think of any group that finished in less than seven years," Seymour said, "nor any that took more than ten." .... This embarrassing episode remains one of the most instructive experiences of my professional life. I had stumbled onto a distinction between two profoundly different approaches to forecasting.... The inside view is the one that all of us, including Seymour, spontaneously adopted to assess the future of our project. We focused on our specific circumstances and searched for evidence in our own experiences. We had a sketchy plan: we knew how many chapters we were going to write, and we had an idea of how long it had taken us to write the two that we had already done. The more cautious among us probably added a few months as a margin of error. But extrapolating was a mistake. We were forecasting based on the information in front of us, but the chapters we wrote first were easier than others and our commitment to the project was probably at its peak....The argument for the outside view should be made on general grounds: if the reference class is properly chosen, the outside view will give an indication of where the ballpark is. It may suggest, as it did in our case, that the inside-view forecasts are not even close.
Facing right-handed Lewis, the Rays batted 3 RHH then 6 consecutive LHH, bucking convention. I've wondered for a while whether alternating L/R in the lineup causes more harm than good: scoring runs...
On August 18th, the Red Sox were 75-48 (.610), while the Rays were 66-56 (.541). Let's assume those records reflected the true talent levels for both teams. Over their last 37 games, the Red Sox have gone 14-23. The probability of a .610 club winning less than or equal to 14 out of 37 games is .3%. The Rays have gone 23-15 over their last 38 games. The probability of a .540 team winning greater than or equal to 23 out of 38 games is 26%.from beyondtheboxscore
I had forgotten about the elbow problems - the reason he is confined to the pen - but his numbers were impressive: starter-quality stuff pitching in relief.
Is Kelly Johnson a good fit for GMDM's Process? Former Brave, veteran presence, fields relatively well (also a left-handed bat, something the system is short on). Maybe he's going to have several suitors, but maybe not. Not that I'm giving up on Giavotella, but this article is a good list of potential 2B candidates - the "Sleepers" section has some interesting possibilities. And also Beckham is an intriguing reclamation project - risky but certainly viewed as a talented player, and Seitzer would have his work cut out for him.
"I cried like an a**hole....... by guilfordnd (2011-09-11 00:32:33) "......for `15 minutes in the bathroom. and i[''m still drunk. I wanted to be as positive as I could the entire game until the pass. I crumpled up after that and cried and cried like I lost a good friend or some s--- after that pass. Tonight I let the small bluegill and two other panfish that were in my aquirium into the creek down the street. I figured I can't have anymore pussies in my man cave. I will catch some fish that will be a f---ing asshole ( like a bass) where every time I feed it it will dominate, and then s--- out the remains. call me wierd but I got nothing left. I don't know what else to do. I look forward to the fall but the gets harder and harder each year." (Via This Week In Schadenfreude, one of my favorite weekly reads, as further example of unpleasant reactions to one's school's failings at college football.)
"Texas President William Powers Jr., athletic director DeLoss Dodds and women's athletic director Chris Plonsky were among a group of Texas officials who went to Oklahoma on Sunday....Oklahoma president David Boren was present at the meeting. "In the meeting, Texas expressed its desire to keep the Big 12 together, while OU made it clear it plans to pursue membership in the Pac-12. But according to an OU athletic department source, Sooner officials agreed to wait as Texas works through its next move. It's OU's preference to go to the Pac-12 with the Longhorns, the source said, and OU is willing to wait for a short period of time while that remains a possibility before acting on its own."
(BtBS linked to this) I am skeptical of many parts of this, and on several levels, but decide for yourself. One excerpt: And so when I think "Internet baseball fan," I think likemindedness. This isn't a criticism. This is just the way it is. A lot of Internet baseball fans have a lot of the same opinions. That is an unavoidable consequence of so many people looking at the same information.
Sure, there's more overall revenue, and I suppose more "power" with more member institutions. But all I see is that each team's relevance gets watered down - the bigger the pond, the smaller the...
"We're looking at how all batters faced have performed against a pitcher's handedness over the course of the season, and compare that to how well the pitcher actually did against these batters. An example...the set of batters that have faced CC Sabathia have hit for a collective weighted wOBA of .327 against all lefties, while the Cy Young favorite has actually allowed a wOBA of .280. " Looks at individual pitchers as well as by-division and by-team. I suppose I don't need to tell you which team performed the worst compared to the expectations.
"By the same token, what right do Texas A&M, Oklahoma and the rest have to complain? They signed on for the new Big 12 last year knowing full well that Texas intended to launch its own network. Why should Texas be limited because its conference counterparts misjudged the scope and breadth of The Longhorn Network? It's almost as if they are saying, "We knew Texas was powerful, but we didn't realize it was this powerful." There was a reason we pundits called the conference Texas and the Nine Dwarves after the league was salvaged. It was obvious to us. Why wasn't it obvious to you?"
Sickels - **The Royals finally promoted Jake Odorizzi to Double-A Northwest Arkansas last week. In May, a Royals official joked with me that they were waiting for his K/BB ratio to get to "100 to 15" before promoting him from Wilmington. At least, I thought this was a joke: his K/BB in the Carolina League ended up at 103/22 in 78 innings with 68 hits allowed and a 2.87 ERA. His first start for Northwest Arkansas wasn't bad: five innings, six hits, two runs, two walks, four strikeouts. Odorizzi's statistical indicators are all positive. He's a strong fly ball pitcher but hasn't given up many homers at the lower levels; we'll see if that remains true but I'm optimistic. He has an impressive 90-95 MPH fastball/plus changeup combination, and the Royals are reportedly happy with the progress he's made with his curveball. The former high school shortstop is also a fine athlete, and his mound presence drew raves in the Carolina League. With injuries and inconsistency plaguing their collection of young arms this year, the Royals are reminded that you can never have too many pitching prospects, and should be quite happy that they were able to pick Odorizzi up in the Greinke deal with the Brewers.Minor League Notes, July 12, 2011
The question of the day seems to be "Why has Dayton Moore stuck with Kyle Davies so long?" especially considering Davies's consistently poor major league results? "Tools" is often the answer, but...
(We've talked about this a bit around here, but Sickels had a note about Cuthbert's progress:) **Kansas City Royals third base prospect Cheslor Cuthbert is holding his own in the Midwest League. An 18-year-old Nicaraguan signed in 2009, Cuthbert is hitting .289/.350/.467 in 24 games for Kane County, with nine walks and 14 strikeouts in 90 at-bats. The Midwest League OPS is just .686, so his .818 OPS indicates that he's well ahead of his competition in performance despite his age. Cuthbert's plate discipline isn't great but has taken a step forward this year, and scouts remained enamored with his bat speed, power potential, and solid ability to make contact. He's also made a dramatic improvement with the glove this year: he had an .891 fielding percentage and seven errors in 28 games of rookie ball last season, but has made just one error in 22 games this year. He still needs work with his footwork and just more experience in general, but it's a definite start.
Jonathan Givony, of DraftExpress.com, has updated his mock (on 6/16/11), with snippets about each of the 1st round picks. 10 Milwaukee Bucks Marcus Morris PF 21 years old; 6’9"; 230...
One of the underlying themes of sabermetrics is the human struggle separate our emotions from our perception of reality. A player dropping a key pop-up that costs your team the game does not automatically make him a bad defender, no matter how angry you may be with him. A player coming through with a pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam doesn't mean he has some inherent clutch ability, no matter how elated you may be with him.Economics of Baseball: Billy Beane's two step
Crime Horse may not quite have the same ring as Crime Dog, so who knows if it will stick (especially with so many potential options). But it did get me thinking that Hosmer and McGriff are...
374 ft. of "true" distance. Categorized as having "Plenty" of distance (as opposed to "Just Enough" or "No Doubt"), and would have left 28 out of 30 ballparks. A link to the video is also on the site. http://www.hittrackeronline.com/
Following up on the "Should NCAA Players Get Paid?" article and discussion, I noticed a post up on SBN's NBA "minor leagues" blog (Ridiculous Upside) asking whether Selby should have bypassed the...
(My title, not his) If you're into this kind of thing, you probably already check out Minor League Ball and/or have already seen this article, but if not or if not, it's really worth a look at some in-depth ranking compilation and analysis. An excerpt: "Players BA really likes (BA, AVG, DIFF): Dee Gordon (SS, LAD) (26, 60, -34) Christian Colon (SS, KC) (51, 78, -27) Players BA doesn't like (BA, AVG, DIFF): Hak-Ju Lee (SS, TB) (92, 68, +24) Arodys Vizcaino (RHP, ATL) (93, 69, +24) Anthony Rizzo (1B, SD) (75, 54, +21) Yonder Alonso (1B, CIN) (73, 53, +20) Chris Carter (1B, OAK) (91, 71, +20) Surprising inclusions (#Lists, BA): Tyler Chatwood (RHP, LAA) (2, 76) Cesar Puello (OF, NYM) (2, 77) Surprising exclusions (#Lists, AVG) Hank Conger (C, LAA) (5, 74) J.P. Arencibia (C, TOR) (4, 56) Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL) (4, 77) Ben Revere (CF, MIN) (4, 76) Jaff Decker (LF, SD) (4, 63) Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN) (4, 66) Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) (5, 79)"
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