SB Nation User Blog: SaintBevo

Home field for the Playoffs? A look at the schedules

SaintBevo — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:03:15 -0000

After the Saints impressive win over the Giants, a buddy of mine and I were discussing how big this win was. It showed us that the Saints are for real. I had always contended that the Giants were the team that I feared the most. Their ability to pressure QBs with only their front 4 seemed a pre-requisite to beat the Saints, since Brees has been so legendary against the blitz in his NOLA tenure. That may still be the key, but we certainly didn’t see any of that 4-man pressure on Sunday. This certainly looks like the best Saints team I’ve ever seen BY FAR. Therefore, I don’t think it is ridiculous to consider the most ridiculous of prospects – the Saints as the number 1 seed in the NFC. Now I know it is early, and lots of things can happen along the way, but let’s look at the remaining schedules of the big 3 contenders in the NFC:

New Orleans:

@Miami

vs Atlanta

vs Carolina

@ St. Louis

@ Tampa Bay

vs New England

@ Washington

@ Atlanta

vs Dallas

vs Tampa Bay

@ Carolina

Let’s assume a sweep of crappy Tampa and the woeful Rams and Redskins. Let’s also assume a split with Atlanta. That’s 10-1 with games against Miami, Carolina (Twice), New England and Dallas. Let’s say we beat Dallas, who by week 15 might be in free fall. That’s 11-1. I don’t think Miami is a cake walk, but I’m calling that a win as well – 12-1. That means that even if we split with Carolina and lose to the Pats, we go 13-3. It could happen. The other interesting thing about this schedule is that there are no late season road games up North, a la Chicago the last couple of years.

Minnesota:

@ Pittsburgh

@ Green Bay

BYE

vs Detroit

vs Seattle

vs Chicago

@ Arizona

vs Cincinnati

@ Carolina

@ Chicago

vs NY Giants

Let’s assume that the Vikes beat Detroit, Seattle, Arizona, Carolina and split with Chicago. That’s 11-1. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Cincy will be on the down swing when the Vikes play them – 12-1. That leaves 3 games – Pittsburgh this weekend, @ Green Bay (in the Brett Favre media hype-til-you-puke bowl) and hosting the Giants on the last weekend. Baltimore would’ve helped this picture quite a bit if they had made that FG, but my gut is that the vikes split those first 2 and the Giants game is for all the marbles.

Giants:

vs Cards

@ Philly

vs San Diego

BYE

vs Atlanta

@ Denver

vs Dallas

vs Philly

@ Washington

vs Carolina

@ Minnesota

This is not an easy schedule. Let’s assume wins over Washington, Dallas and Carolina – 8-1. The cardinal game isn’t a walk, but that’s a win, ditto San Diego – 10-1. If we assume a split with Philly, the Gaints are 11-2 not counting 3 games – Atlanta, @ Denver and @ the vikings. IF the Saints do finish 13-3, the Giants would need to swwep those 3 games to get home field, due to their loss to the Saints.

Just for grins, let’s include the Falcons, who while not getting the same press as those top 3, have looked very good:

Atlanta:

@ Dallas

@ New Orleans

vs Washington

@ Carolina

@ Giants (November 22nd)

vs Tampa

vs Philly

vs New Orleans

@ NY Jets (December 20th)

vs Buffalo

@ Tampa

Again, let’s assume wins over Dallas, Washington, Tampa twice, Carolina, and Buffalo – that’s 10-1. Throw in a split with the Saints, and they’re 11-2 with Games at the Giants (in late November) at the Jets (in late December) and hosting Philly. In my mind, the best they can hope for is 1-2 in those games – 12-4

Now, things might look a lot different in a few weeks. Will some key player get hurt? ~~When~~ Will Brett Favre start throwing stupid picks again? Will some team that looks good now fall apart? Will a team like the Panthers rebound and look better than they do right now – that’s why they play the games. I didn’t look at all the convoluted tie-breakers, but let’s just say this Saints fans- start rooting for the Vikings to lose.

The NFL's best WR corps?

SaintBevo — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 01:00:30 -0000

There was some discussion recently around the Saints WR corps and whether they should be considered among the league’s best. To sum up the basic arguments:

For – Why yes, they are. Look at the stats – proof is in the pudding. This offense racks up big time numbers and someone is catching those passes.

Against – These guys are a product of Payton’s system and/or Brees’ awesomeness. The WRs are basically stormtroopers, faceless cogs that are interchangeable.

Before I weigh in, lets look at the contenders for the league’s best corps (in my opinion):

Arizona – Probably the clear favorite. Led by perhaps the league’s best in Larry Fitzgerald amd Anquan Boldin. Steve Breaston is no slouch either.
Detroit – Calvin Johnson alone makes this group stand out, with servicable Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt.
Green Bay – With Greg Jennings in his prime, veteran Donald Driver and young Jordy Nelson and James Jones, this is another strong contender.
Houston – again, Andre Johnson is studly enough to earn this group consideration and Kevin Walter is a solid #2. Andre Davis and Jacoby Jones round out the group
Minnesota – Honestly, I only include them because John Clayton recently said that they may be the best. Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin? Give me a break.
New England – Another strong contender for the top spot. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Joey Galloway are a very strong top 3. Young Julian Edelman had a big day against the Jets.
Pittsburgh – Not as flashy as some, but still good. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are the headliners, but their backups Limas Sweed (hook ‘em) and Mike Wallace are explosive.
New Orleans – They definitely lack the star power of Arizona, New England and some of the others but depth and versatility are the strengths of this group. Colston is a big, physical threat who gets open and catches everything. Henderson is a burner who can stretch the defense and his hands seenm to be improving (knock on wood). Meachem has battled the bust label, but is big and physical with good speed. Perhaps we’re seeing him put it together this year. Lance Moore, when healthy, is the perfect zone-buster. He runs perfect routes and has great hands.

The Saints WR corps definitely benefits from the Payton system and Brees pulling the trigger. Each of these players by theselves would not be as good and Brees makes everybody look better. However, Brees and the system definitely benefit from them as well. Would this team be as good with Joe Horn, Willie Jackson and Jake Reed? How about Quinn Early and Floyd Turner? Umm…no.

I’d say the Saints WRs, while not the best group in the league, are in the top 3. What do you think?

Poll

Which team has the NFL's best WR corps?

Arizona

37 votes

Detroit

0 votes

Green Bay

2 votes

Houston

1 votes

Minnesota

1 votes

New England

2 votes

New Orleans

64 votes

Pittsburgh

0 votes

107 votes | Poll has closed

Jenkins Signs

SaintBevo — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 03:18:42 -0000

Jenkins Signs

It's about time...

OK, let's get it on!

The death of a dream

SaintBevo — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 02:37:33 -0000

The death of a dream

Everyone, please. A moment of silence for the death of the Lito Sheppard to Saints trade rumor...Time of death...4:37 EST

Looking Back at PayLoo Drafts

SaintBevo — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 04:37:12 -0000

During the season, there was some discussion on CSC about the success of the drafts of the Payton/Loomis team. With the 2009 draft steadily approaching, this seems as good a time as any to take a look back and see how they’ve done. It is always easier to evaluate drafts the farther you are from them, so it will be tougher to evaluate the 2008 draft, but lets give them all a shot…

2006

1st Round (2nd overall) - Reggie Bush – He’s a figure of controversy here at CSC and a day would not be complete without a debate about Bush and how he’s used (right?). All that said, the events that led to his falling into our laps were greeted with universal elation and his selection at the time was an absolute no-brainer. We can, and will, continue to debate his effectiveness as a pro, but you can’t reasonably argue with this selection.

2nd Round - Roman Harper – If you remember, PayLoo had been stockpiling safeties during that offseason, so this pick was met with some surprise. Harper, however, immediately installed himself as a starter and played well in 06 until a season-ending injury. He’s been more uneven since his return, but has been a starter the whole time.

4th Round - Jahri Evans – He’s started every game in his career and by most accounts is a young star at the position

5th Round - Rob Ninkovich – Showed a great deal of promise as a situational pass-rusher before an injury ended his 06 season. He ended up with the Dolphins for parts of the 07 and 08 seasons before being re-signed by the Saints in 08.

6th Round - Mike Hass (WR) and Josh Lay (CB) – Hass didn’t make the Saints roster in 06, but was with the Bears in 06 and 07. He’s now out of the league as is Josh Lay.

7th Round - Zach Strief and Marques Colston – Strief has become a valuable backup O lineman and the staff seems to like him. Colston, probably one of the greatest steals in draft history, burst onto the scene in training camp and had two huge years. He struggled a bit this year with injuries and some drops, but expect him back to his old self in 09.

The 2006 draft was great by almost any measure. 6 of the 8 players are still with the team (although Ninkovich will probably be cut again). The offensive players picked form the nucleus of the league’s #1 one attack. If Harper rebounds in Gregg Williams defense, this draft will look even better.

2007

1st Round (27th overall) - Robert Meachem – Struggled from the first mini-camp with injuries and has never seemed to make the impact expected. Calling him a bust might be too strong, but it is hard to argue we haven’t got value for that pick thus far. Would you trade him for Greg Olsen (picked 31st) or Anthony Gonzalez (32nd)?

3rd Round - Usama Young – He’s played in 19 of 22 career games, including 2 starts in 2008, but I don’t have a good sense of how good he is. The fact that he hasn’t been able to break into the starting lineup in one of our areas of serious weakness probably tells us something.

3rd Round - Andy Alleman – The guard from Akron didn’t make the team this year, but ended up with Miami where he played 15 games and started 4.

4th Round - Antonio Pittman and Jermon Bushrod – The Saints selected Pittman expecting him to be the future complement to Bush. Well, that didn’t work out and Pittman was beat out by an unknown free-agent named Pierre Thomas. Pittman did land with the Rams where he averaged 3.7 ypc last year. Jermon Bushrod is a promising young tackle who the coaching staff is apparently very high on.

5th Round - David Jones (CB) – Jones never made the Saints, but did catch on with the Bengals where he started 7 games in 2008.

7th Round - Marvin Mitchell – The LB from Tennessee has been a valuable backup and special teams player for the Saints.

The jury is still very much out on the 2007 draft. Four of the seven players are still with the team, but none of them have had a major impact. Only Young has seen significant playing time, but again has been unable to break into the starting lineup of one of the worst secondaries in the league. Meachem has struggled to be on the active roster and many have toyed with the bust label for him. This coming season may well be the year we find out for sure. The staff is very high on Bushrod, but we’ve yet to really see him play.

2008

1st Round (7th overall) - Sedrick Ellis – Immediately stepped in as a starter and had a very solid rookie year. The team will be counting on him to continue to mature and become a dominant force in the middle for years to come.

2nd Round - Tracy Porter – His physical talent became apparent quickly and before he got hurt, he looked for all the world like our best DB. Let’s hope he comes back healthy and better than ever.

5th Round - DeMario Pressley and Carl Nicks – The staff had high hopes for Pressley before an injury sidelined him for the year. A big, physical presence, Nicks stepped into the starting lineup as a result of injury and was an immediate upgrade. Look for him to remain in the lineup for the forseeable future.

6th Round - Taylor Mehlhaff – Couldn’t beat out Grammatica in preseason, then brought back after Grammatica became "injured." The huge leg we heard so much about wasn’t evident on kickoffs and he wasn’t accurate enough for Payton and was replaced.

7th Round - Adrian Arrington – Another player that Drew raved about early on before injuries ended his year.

Way to early to judge this draft. Ellis looks like a keeper, as does Porter, assuming he returns to form folloing his injury. Pressley and Arringtono showed promise, so it will be interesting to see how they return from their own injuries in mini and training camps. Mehlhaff was a waste, especially considering we picked up someone who kicked better than him and Grammatica put together.

Overall, 15 of the 21 players picked by PayLoo are still with the team (71%) and 19 are still in the league (90%). Compare that with the last 3 drafts with Jim Haslett’s input – 30% of those players are still with the team and only 45% are still in the league. For the most part, PayLoo has shown a good eye for talent. They’ve had some great picks (e.g. Colston, Strief, Evans), and some questionable ones (e.g. Meachem, Mehlhaff). Overall though, I think you’d have to give them high marks for their drafts. They have done a good job building a nucleus, especially on offense, for a successful team. Let’s hope that continues. They have also aggressively pursued the players they want, often trading up to grabe them (i.e. Ellis). I would say, especially compared to the last 2-3 drafting regimes for the Saints, this braintrust has been shown to possess the skills to navigate the draft and build this team into a contender.

Now, if we can just break up a long pass, we're in business!

Poll

Do you think the Payton and Loomis team has been good at drafting?

Absolutely

34 votes

They're okay

46 votes

Nah

2 votes

82 votes | Poll has closed

Kiper's first mock draft - It's Vontae Davis

SaintBevo — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 03:56:07 -0000

Kiper's first mock draft - It's Vontae Davis

Kiper has us taking Vontae Davis with the 14th pick. Take it for what it's worth...

Shane Dronett dead

SaintBevo — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 03:51:35 -0000

Shane Dronett dead

Standout D-lineman of 1990 SWC champion Texas team died on Wednesday of an apparent suicide. Our thoughts and prayers go out to his family. He was only 38.

Gregg Williams Speaks

SaintBevo — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 00:31:10 -0000

Gregg Williams Speaks

He's got a few interesting things to say from the Senior Bowl, especially in reference to working with a high-scoring offense.

"I think (the Saints defense has) got a good nucleus, a good base of talent there," Williams said. "And you've got to be excited about the offense. When you're in a situation where if you like to pressure defense like I do, then you get a chance to pin your ears back and rush the passer more when you can put points on the board. I've been in situations before as a coach where you've got to make sure you monitor what you're doing and you can't afford to make a mistake because you're going to win the game 6-3, 10-7, 13-10. Here, you've really got a chance to pin your ears back and really rush the passer. So I'm really looking forward to it."

Gregg Williams first up

SaintBevo — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 13:51:30 -0000

Gregg Williams first up

Apparently Gregg Williams, former DC of the Titans Redskins, and most recently Jags, is set to interview for Saints DC. Article also gives a good rundown of other possible candidates (including potential messiah Sean McDermott).

If Sproles can, why not Bush?

SaintBevo — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 05:37:46 -0000

If you’re like me, you watched the indy-san diego playoff game with one thing on your mind… If Darren Sproles can do that, why can’t Reggie Bush? Sproles, a smaller, less-expensive version of Bush, put the chargers on his back and ran wild Saturday night. He had 328 total yards, including 105 yards rushing (4.8 ypc). He was basically unstoppable. Everytime Indy had the chargers in a 3rd and long, Rivers would dump it off to Sproles who would make guys miss and occasionally break tackles to get the first. He had a great punt runback to set up the tying FG and got the winning TD in OT.

So, why can Sproles, a 5-6 181 lb scat back do all this and our very own Reggie Bush (6’, 205 lbs), not? There are a few key differences in their situations:

Usage – During the regular season, not counting punts and kick returns, Sproles touched the ball 90 times in 16 games – 90. That’s it. Reggie had 158 touches in 10 games. Obviously the Chargers have LT and he’s the man. That leaves Sproles as the complementary back. He saves his energy for a few touches a game – and he makes the most of them. 5.4 yards per carry and 11.8 yards per catch (vs 3.8 and 8.5 for reggie). The Chargers don’t ask him to pound away on defenses.
Style – Every back has a unique running style, but I think Sproles and Bush are similar enough to compare. Does Sproles hit the hole faster? Maybe. Does he dance less? Perhaps. But I did see some similar shake and bake in the backfield on a few plays, but no atomic piledrivers from defenders in the backfield. What gives? This leads us to the biggest and most important difference.
The Offensive Line – Did you see the holes that Sproles had? In most cases he could race through the line and into the second level before anyone laid a hand on him. A stark difference from the Saints OL, where opposing DLs often holding meetings at the hand-off point on running plays. Sproles had the luxury of hitting the hole full speed, because he knows that more often that not, there aren’t 2 LBs waiting to posterize him.

So what does this mean for the Saints and Reggie. I think Reggie can be a more consistently dangerous weapon than Sproles is, if a two things change.

First, the OL needs to get worlds better. Personnel changes would help (Brown to RT and goodbye to Stinchcomb? A new center?) but at the very minimum, a competent OL coach is a must. When DLs aren’t converging on him before he touches the ball, Bush will be freer to make his magic.

Second, continue to late season trend to pound the ball with other backs. I know Reggie was hurt the last few games, but hopefully Payton has learned that an improved running game is crucial to our success. I think Bush should get as many or more touches, but limit his touches in the running game so that Thomas or another more physical runner can soften up the defenses.

And one last request for Coach Payton – throw the ball downfield to Bush once in a while, huh? He’s faster than most of the CBs in the league, so I doubt there’s a Safety or LB who can stay with him. Remember the NFC championship? Wasn’t that play fun? Let’s see more of that.