From what I have read, a tie between two teams with the same record comes down to strength of schedule. Currently, there are only two teams with a 3-11 record (which you probably already knew), the Chiefs and the Browns. It doesn't matter that they beat us head-to-head for draft picking order, so we look at strength of schedule. Through week 15, here are both teams opponents, records, and total wins for each teams opponents.

CHIEFS

Ravens 8-6

Raiders 5-9

Eagles 10-4

Giants 7-6

Cowboys 9-5

Redskins 4-9

Chargers 11-3

Jags 7-7

Raiders 5-9

Steelers 7-7

Chargers 11-3

Broncos 8-6

Bills 5-9

Browns 3-11

TOTAL 100

BROWNS

Vikings 11-3

Broncos 8-6

Ravens 8-6

Bengals 9-5

Bills 5-9

Steelers 7-7

Packers 9-5

Bears 5-9

Ravens 8-6

Lions 2-12

Bengals 9-5

Chargers 11-3

Steelers 7-7

Chiefs 3-11

TOTAL 102

The Redskins and Giants are teams on the schedule that play tonight, so are not updated through week 15. But since we, and not the Browns, played both teams, that adds one win to the Chiefs opponent's column. So, through Monday night of week 15, we are looking at a total for the Chiefs of 101 wins, and a total for the Browns of 102, giving the Chiefs a current weaker SOS. This is all purely food for thought, and can of course change if either us or the Browns win another game. This obviously changes when teams on your schedule win or lose games as well, which is bound to happen (duh). So maybe it's a little too early to even look at these numbers. Also, keep in mind that a win for a divisional foe from our division counts against us twice, while it only counts against the Browns once, and vice versa for their division (since you play the teams in your division twice).

Basically, for us to draft higher than Cleveland, we have to hope that the Raiders lose to them (giving us a better opponent's record against them in case we win a game (throwing out the Redskins because I don't feel like doing that much work for a 3-way tie at 4-12)) or we go winless in our last two, securing the fourth pick.

In the likely event that we are tied at 3-13, heading into the end of the season, we are unfortunately playing teams with better records than the Browns (we have the Bengals and Broncos, they have the Raiders and Jaguars) which adds more to our total win column. It's pretty unlikely that the 4 non-common opponents win out for the Browns as these teams are the Lions, Bears, Packers, and Vikings (adding a total of 4 wins to their column if this does happen) and our 4 non-common opponents lose out, these four being the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins (not affecting our column at all if they do lose out).

All of this calculating accounts for the fact that when two teams are tied, first pick would go to the team with a WEAKER strength of schedule; that is, a team whose opponents had less wins collectively than the other team. The logic here is that a team with a weaker SOS that STILL couldn't win more games than the team they are tied with are a weaker team. Of course, this only counts in round one, as picks cycle between teams with a tied record after that.

All that being said, I'm projecting both the Chiefs and Browns to stay tied at 3-13, and with us facing stronger opponents at the end of the season than the Browns and having similar stability in both divisions, along with a nearly tied opponents win column through week 15, the Browns will sadly be picking above us come April 2010.

So fans, with the fifth pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...?