I never thought it would happen.  Color me skeptical.

Put me in the group that feels that if he can't return to the point where he can play a whole game without causing me to think 'he's dogging it' or 'taking games off' (be it due to his injury or his attitude), he shouldn't be playing at all.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2007/12/wednesday_surprise_miles_is_ba/print.html

From Oregonlive.com

"Brandon should be okay,'' McMillan said. "He tweaked his ankle a little bit in the warmup drill, so just for precautionary measures we took him out. I didn't see what happened. He said he came down and didn't feel right. So we decided to take him out and see what was going on.''

The injury doesn't appear to be related to the left heel injury that caused Roy to miss 20 of the first 25 games last season. In fact, McMillan said Roy wanted to continue practicing."

Derrick Rose, anyone?

http://www.nba.com/blazers/news/index.html

Can anyone find James Jones in the video?  I still haven't spotted the guy in any of the scrimmages.  Also, it looks like the portion they video'd today lacked Channing Frye as well.

All in all, this early arrival business, though probably inconsequential in terms of wins and losses, will go a long way in building the chemistry of this group.   They're all quite young and inexperienced around each other, so every moment counts.

http://www.nba.com/blazers/schedule/results_2007.html

11 nationally televised games.

Opening night match at San Antonio (ring ceremony).

Home opener on November 7 against the Hornets.

Christmas game at home vs. Seattle.

Both Oden/Shaq matches are nationally televised.

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"So now you have the lottery and you're saying to yourself, you GOTTA have Greg Oden go to a big market, right? It's already designed. Maybe we put that envelope in the freezer and that way when Adam Silver reaches in and grabs it... he pulls out the Boston Celtics... the Celtics are BACK!  Overcome the Len Bias death, the Reggie Lewis death, the 'let's tank games and keep Rick Pitino in Boston'... now they end up on the outside looking in.

Not great for the NBA.

Not great at all.

But great for Portland.

And you know what?  Portland's gone through an awful lot.  I mean, Portland is trying to get past taking Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan.  But you didn't hear Portland whine and moan and complain... they had the Jail Blazers there!  Still a great great market.  Great place to see a basketball game.  Love their basketball team.  You could make the argument that the Portland Trail Blazers have been as important to Portland as the Spurs have been to San Antonio.

Small markets: they surround their teams.  

They love their teams.

It's always half full, not half empty.

So Portland is gonna take Greg Oden (or at least they should).  And then, Seattle (or the artist formerly known as Seattle) they get Kevin Durant.

And keep in mind, Seattle tried to recover from trading Scottie Pippen for Olden Polynice!  Now, did they rebound from that because they ended up with Gary Payton?  Yes.

It's good for those markets, it's good for those cities, it's good for those teams.

It's not good for the NBA.

But you can't sit there and accuse the commissioner of being part of a conspiracy theory.

It's going to get interesting here.  It's a deep draft, lot of players that can help you right away.

Also keep this in mind: when you look at drafts in any other sport, which draft has a player who can help you right away?  It's the NBA.

JaMarcus Russell may not even play for the Raiders this year.

I mean, Reggie Bush as great as he was in college, wasn't that big of an impact player for the New Orleans Saints. Now you do have certain players who come in and play right away and play well.  

Greg Oden changes an entire franchise.

Kevin Durant may change an entire franchise.

The importance of the lottery: is it fair?  If you're one of the worst teams should you get a chance at the top?  Why don't you just have: "Hey, you get the worst record, you get the #1 pick.  Anyone accuse the Raiders of tanking this year?  We accused NBA teams of tanking.  

And i believe for the Celtics, rightfully so.

But for the Celtics to sit around there and say: "Welp! We hope we win the lottery!  

No, why don't you have front office executives who make right decisions, good trades, good drafts instead of saying "Welp! gonna have a leprechaun here, we'll send Tommy Heinsohn in there, that should do it!  That should make up for all of the ineptitude we have here.  Losing breeds losing, make some smart decisions, bring in the correct people, that would go a long way.  

I like the odds of Portland winning the lottery:

Less likely than Shaq making 11 consecutive free throws.

Rolling snake eyes on consecutive rolls of the dice.

Flipping a coin and getting heads 10 consecutive times.

Good for Portland!  If you get Greg Gden, I believe you're getting a great kid.  A kid who wasn't afraid to embarrass himself shooting free throws left handed.  Good team player. runs the floor, got a good sense of humor.  And hopefully they've gotten rid of all of those knuckleheads that they had up there in Portland.

Got Brandon Roy.  Hopefully you fight the urge to make a trade.  You don't have to win now.

Don't cave into that urge, it's not winning now.

And as David Robinson said last night, "Greg Oden in 5 years: that's gonna be the right pick."

Durant's ready to play right now.  And Seattle? They're going to get a very good player in Kevin Durant.

I believe there are a lot of players that are similar to Kevin Durant that have come out or will continue to come out.  That hybrid: 6-7, 6-8, 6-9, 6-10... plays a couple of different positions.

Greg Oden doesn't come along very often.  There aren't very many true big men.

Not great for the nba.  But you know what?

That's not the way to look at it, if you're a Portland fan or a Seattle fan.

Is there a way to fix the lottery?
It's made for TV.  I mean, you have to admit: This is more drama than you ever saw in the conference finals so far.  There's no drama in the Spurs so far.  The only drama was LeBron: Pass it or shoot it.

That was damn good drama last night (or as we like to say in the Midwest "that was drah-mah!")

And I love that the whispering that goes on...

Also you have grown men there with good luck charms...

"Oh and I brought this, uh, it's a lucky foot that I brought, and this was a hole in one that was scored..."

These are grown men, with their franchises at stake.  And the whispering happens on when someone drops out of the top three.

"What?  Who dropped out? Boston?  Boston's out!"

And the reactions of the Boston fans:  unnnnhhhhh.

Didn't you react that way when you saw the Celtics play this year?  unnhhhhh.

Memphis: unnnhhh

And a word to the wise: don't tank.

Portland had a 5% chance.

Good for them.

It's not fair.  It used to be that you flipped a coin, Phoenix and Milwaukee FLIPPED A COIN to decide who got Lew Alicindor.  And you know what the consolation prize was that year for Phoenix?  Neal Walk.  Yep.  

You flipped a coin.

That's what it comes down to.  You flipped a coin. heads, I mean tails, I mean heads.  let's bring in Jerome Bettis to call.  Heads.  Hails, I take hails! Teds!"

1. I punched the ceiling and now my hand is pretty bloody.
2. I called 5 people on my cellular.
3. I watched the proceedings 3 times.

What did you do?

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http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=117466803757695600

Same night that Portland beat the Wizards.  If he was planning to leave Wednesday, why didn't he show up to the Wizards game?  

It'll be really interesting to see how the team reacts to this, how Nate McMillan reacts to this, and how interim guy Tod reacts to this.  

Is a suspension warranted?  Hard to say at this point.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2007/02/the_french_are_coming.html http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2173~1707&teams=22~9

One of the more plausible trade scenarios I've seen.

Golden State has a glut of SFs and needs to thin the rotation there, while Dixon has fallen out of favor and Portland could give Pietrus a tryout before he expires after this season.

Thumbs up.

Quick will be on The Fan at 6 PM to talk about it.

What would this mean for Travis Outlaw?

From the Columbian

Rookie point guard Sergio Rodriguez dressed for the Utah game for the first time since spraining his left ankle on Jan. 31, but Blazers coach Nate McMillan said he wants Rodriguez to practice more before playing again.

McMillan said Rodriguez looked "gimpy" during Monday's practice and needed extra time to loosen up.

So he wants to bring Rodriguez back slowly.

"He could go, but he's not 100 percent," McMillan said. "We'll probably hold him for another game or so, another practice."

He might look okay shooting around at Staples today, but I bet we won't see him until the home fixture versus Memphis on Friday.  Dickau's strong showing last night solidifies this notion for me.

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An NBA Scout weighs in on the 7-foot freshman from Washington/Seattle Prep, and it sounds like his best bet may be sticking around for next year...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/303979_nban16.html

"He has very good hands, plays well in the open floor for a guy that's 6-11," the scout said. "He's very comfortable with the ball, has a great touch around the basket, nice form with his shot. He is not going to be the quickest or most athletic guy.

"Some guys like Hawes and (Pitt's) Aaron Gray, those guys were immediately looked at as lottery picks 15 years ago. (But) just because you're big doesn't give you that advantage. There are plenty of NBA teams who have won titles without a big center, and if this 6-9 guy is more athletic, they may take him."

""He struggles against the more athletic, quicker big (men), and his rebounding skills are good but not great," the scout said. "He's gotta get stronger on his lower body. He's not that imposing force defensively."

The scout had a suggestion for any freshman on the bubble.

"If you're going to put your name into this year's draft, you'd better come with very little flaws," he said. "(Hawes) could definitely benefit his draft status by going back to school. In no way is he a lock for the lottery. (The 2008 draft) is not going to have the amount of big men (as this year's draft)."

Personally, I think Portland could use a passing big man with range out to 20.  The problem is, if Hawes' stock rises enough where he'd come out this year, he'd be unavailable where Portland is picking at.  If his stock stays where it is now, he won't come out at all.  

Pity.

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http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/sonics/story/6373093p-5685070c.html

Two sources confirmed that the Portland Trail Blazers called the Sonics in an attempt to obtain Robert Swift.

Sund told the Blazers that Swift, out for the season with a knee injury, was not available, according to the sources.

It is unclear who the Blazers offered, though they have been attempting to trade Jamaal Magloire all season. In that case, another player like Danny Fortson would have to be included to meet the NBA's salary requirements. Magloire makes $8.3 million while Swift makes $1.9 million.

If I had to guess, it probably included Outlaw, Magloire, and our 2nd rounders for some combination of Fortson and Swift.  Unless we were going to offer up someone like Sergio or our 1st rounder, I can't see why Seattle would do something like this.  Swift is quite injured, but I think he'll still be quite good.

Starting lineups:
Rooks: Morrison, Bargnani, Foye (?), Gay, Roy
Sophs: Lee, Granger, Bogut, Head, Williams

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(AP Photo/J. Pat Carter)

Starters:
Gary Payton vs. Jarrett Jack.
Push:  Even Rip-Van-Glove can probably catch up with Jack.  I will say that Jack's offensive showing the other night was promising.  Call this one a push.

Roy vs. Wade
AD Wade: Even though it'll be Udoka marking Wade, on the offensive end Roy needs to get to the basket and draw fouls (something he failed to do vs. Washington).  The trick for Udoka will be keeping Wade from involving his teammates.  He's been averaging close to 8 assists per game of late, and needs to be a scoring island for Portland to have any success.

Kapono vs. Udoka
AD Kapono:  Where the hell did this guy come from?  Formerly a gatorade-provider, Kapono has become a rebounding, 3-pt shooting perimeter ace (If you're reading this, Mr. Pritchard, he's also an unrestricted free agent after this season).  It'll be Roy guarding Kapono, so if he provides Udoka some help defense on Wade, he'll need to get back before he bombs away from three.

Haslem vs. Randolph
AD Randolph:  Portland needs a huge night from Mr. Randolph in order offset their deficiencies in the backcourt.  He's been held to under 17 points in his last two meetings w/ Miami, though, so something about their frontcourt must give Z-Bo the heebie-jeebies.  I wonder if it has to do with Shaq?  Probably more than somewhat.

O'Neal vs. Przybilla
AD O'Neal:  Shaq has averaged 16 points a night since he's been back.  Not incredible, but impressive for someone who's been out all season.  Przy + Co. need to keep him off the glass and his limit second chance points if they want a chance to win tonight.

Bench:
AD Miami:  This is where it gets scary. With the addition of Eddie Jones (bought out by Memphis), Portland could potentially line up an entire squad who couldn't rent a car if they wanted to against a group straight out of NBA Jam TE.  They need to get something out of Martell, who could really help Portland spread the floor tonight.  Unfortunately he's flip-flopped back to the scared, intimidated Martell that we got to know last year.  

Conclusion:  If Portland stays out of foul trouble and keeps the game close, they might be able to pull yet another rabbit out of the hat.  But the way the Heat have been playing at home suggests that this one will be out of reach. Prediction: 99-88, Miami.

http://www.tsn.ca/nba/news_story/?ID=178050&hubname=nba

TSN.ca, Canada's ESPN, previewed the Blazers today in their 'around the NBA' format.  Nothing new here, except for a few inaccuracies.

Keep in mind that this is the same writer who believes that Toronto will challenge for a playoff spot right away...

And make no mistake; the rebuilding project in Portland does not truly begin until those two players, or at least Randolph, have been shipped off to become someone else's problem. These two players represent some of the very worst personalities to come through the door in Portland, ever. They both refuse to play team ball, are selfish to the point of being laughable, and neither one has committed to rounding out their games' since nabbing big contracts with the Blazers in 2004. They are both holding this team hostage in terms of development because neither one wants to buy into what coach McMillan is trying to sell this team on in terms of hard work and effort, and their attitudes continue to hang as a dark cloud bleakly over the Portland locker room.

I'm not going to sing the praises of Zach Randolph:  Off the court, he's a complete imbecile.  On the basketball court, however, it seems the above writer has incorrectly lumped Randolph into the 'poor work ethic' category along with Darius Miles.  

Besides his ineptitude at passing out of double teams, the rest of his game has progressed in the last few years.  He has a decent outside jump shot and his feathery touch around the basket hasn't changed.  Miles, meanwhile, remains one of the worst FT shooters in the league and seems to shun offseason workouts.

[Jarrett Jack] came into last season so far down on the depth chart one wondered if he'd nab any playing time at all behind Telfair and Steve Blake, but Jack not only played his way into the rotation, he played Telfair and Blake right out of Oregon.

I'm pretty sure Jack started out ahead of Blake in the rotation.  But his point is well taken.

 

Not that this matters at all, but it's still the dead of the offseason and it is Blazer-related.

Pinkney said he was excited about signing with the Wizards, who boast two of the premier players in the NBA in Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas. Pinkney, who averaged 12.7 points and 7.7 rebounds a game his senior year at Nevada, chose the Wizards over the Portland Trailblazers, who he played for during the Toshiba Las Vegas Summer League.

"They (Portland) wanted me to come to their training camp, too," said Pinkney, who played in Poland and France last year. "I picked the Wizards over the Blazers just because I think they have a couple of spots open, and Portland didn't have any spots open. Washington has at least one spot open."

Pinkney averaged 6 points and 3 rebounds a game for the Blazers' summer team, and the former Nevada star said that opened some doors for him.

"I think I did real good." Pinkney said. "I played good interior defense and rebounded. Those are the things that I needed to do.

Though I'm sure that Portland is full at the frontcourt positions, I wonder if they couldn't use a veteran SF to bump up the average age and fill in for someone in case of injury...

According to the Oregonian...

PG: Jarrett Jack, Brandon Roy, Dan Dickau (inj), Sergio Rodriguez
SG:  Juan Dixon or Martell Webster, Brandon Roy
SF:  Darius Miles, Travis Outlaw
PF:  Zach Randolph, Raef LaFrentz, Lamarcus Aldridge (inj)
C:  Joel Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire

Initial Thoughts:  While I doubt this is the depth chart that Nate goes with throughout the season, it does remind me of the type of personnel decisions he was making last season.  Dickau's injury allows Nate to move Brandon Roy to the point guard position which gives Martell and Dixon the opportunity to battle in training camp.  A 3-person battle for one position is difficult to resolve (we know this from the PG position last season).  A 2-man battle, however, is much more easily decided.  Plus, it gives Dixon the opportunity to 'lose' his starting job that he had to give up amidst the PG confusion last season.

It also (at least initially) cleans up the SF spot for Travis Outlaw.  Last year, Outlaw complained that he was always looking over his shoulder at Nate when he had Monia and Khryapa both competing with him as a backup.  He'll get the biggest opportunity in his career this season.  If he doesn't show the progress, Nate can simply move Martell over to the 3 when Dickau gets healthy and slide Dixon in behind Roy at the starting 2 spot.

Nate secured the starting job for Randolph:  No surprises there.  Then he revealed that the starting center job was Joel's to lose... to Magloire.  This causes me to believe that it'll be LaFrentz backing up Randolph at the 4, then.  It should be interesting to see what happens when Aldridge comes back.  More than likely, there will be some injury problems in the frontcourt that will allow him the opportunity to play.

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http://www.vegassummerleague.com/players_info.cfm?player=448&season=3&team=29

Press Release - Washington Wizards President of Basketball Operations Ernie Grunfeld announced today that the team has signed Mike Hall, James Lang, Roger Mason Jr. and Kevinn Pinkney. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.

This coincides with KP's 'Brown bag chat' revelation that the team will be carrying a light squad going into training camp.  It doesn't rule out the unlikely possibility, however, that he might be involved in the Blazers preseason plans.

IMO, file this one under 'who cares'.  I did really like what I saw from Pinkney during summer league.  The guy hustles for loose balls, has a nice looking jumper, and surprisingly wasn't undersized (most fringe PFs at the VSL were).

Storylines:

Peja in New Orleans.

The Bulls: Title contenders?

Wade, James, Anthony, Bosh, the New Class.

The ongoing disaster of the New York Knicks: Thomas gets to sleep in the bed he shat in.

Adam Morrison playing in the NBA... weird.

Colangelo goes almost completely international with the Raptors.

Can anyone stop the Suns with Stoudemire healthy?

Darko Milicic + Dwight Howard = ???

Most importantly, can anything top last season (besides the playoffs being shorter)?

One of the reasons Magloire is no longer with the Bucks is a 10-minute deduction in MPG at the end of last season.  

Now he's joining a low-post corps that consists of 3 starters:  Przybilla, LaFrentz and Zach Randolph.  

If he is willing to accept reduced minutes next season, his addition will help this team in its weakest area:  rebounding.

If he isn't, he could become another disgruntled eyesore for the Blazers.

"If it's physical labor, tossing people around, throwing them down or what have you, I take pride in getting the job done by any means necessary."

More quotes from an article last season after the jump...

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Assuming each of the top picks are all mediocre in their first seasons, rank each of the top prospects from 1-6 in the order of their market value after their disappointing start. Use your own definition of mediocrity when answering this question.

Subquestion: Does your ranking mimic the actual draft order?

My picks after the jump...

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All Photos by John Raoux, Associated Press.

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Instead of being picked with the 23rd pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, Travis Outlaw went to Mississippi State where he averaged 15 ppg for the Bulldogs over 3 years.

Travis has an improving jumper, showing range from the NBA 3. Also, Outlaw can take it above the rim and draw fouls with ease. It's unclear whether his skill at dribble penetration will translate to the NBA game, however.

MS State coach Rick Stansbury also finds Outlaw to be listless at times. He was slow to pick up the offense during his freshman year, and during crunch time of SEC Tournament games, Outlaw disappeared completely.

Regardless of these negatives, Outlaw is still one of the most intriguing prospects of the 2006 NBA draft. He's shown athleticism on par with Rodney Carney, Rudy Gay and Shawne Williams. With a wingspan of almost 7 ft., Outlaw could see time at the PF or C positions in a fast breaking Boris Diaw role.

_______

Would you grant these soft tendencies of a junior prospect? Maybe we shouldn't count out Outlaw quite yet. If Miles goes and Portland drafts an Aldridge, treating Outlaw like a rookie might be a reasonable idea. Other GMs are, anyway.

2006 NBA Draft: SF Pool

   1. Adam Morrison, Jr.(projected top 3)
   2. Rudy Gay, So. (projected top 5)
   3. Rodney Carney, Sr. (projected top 15)
   4. Travis Outlaw, Jr. (???)

Where would Outlaw be picked in this year's NBA Draft?

John Nash and Kevin Pritchard have both admitted that they're looking for someone who can step in immediately and make a difference.

With the new age limit in place, David Stern has made that decision for them.  

But seriously, the Blazers franchise needs an immediate performer.  No more 'waiting periods' or 'patience' this summer.  If a new ownership group takes over next season, a Rookie of the Year (ROY) would be just what the doctor ordered.

So I went over the NBA Drafts since Michael Jordan and tried to find a common thread between each season's ROY.  I immediately noticed how much Kevin Garnett has changed the league.  Since he was drafted in 1995, only one upperclassman has won the award (Tim Duncan in 1997).  So really, we can't adequately compare the draft data before 1995 and after because they're two entirely different development systems.

Still, I found a few patterns that allowed me to make an educated guess about the winner in 2006-07.

Will there be another European ROY in 06-07?

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Bill Simmons of ESPN Page 2 had an interesting entry a few months ago which catalogued an email exchange between he and author Malcolm Gladwell.  

Gladwell has made a killing in recent years bringing cutting edge ideas from the business/psychology academic spheres and putting them into lehman's terms for the pseudointellectual New Yorker demographic.

He did make an interesting point about drafting players.  These major-program guys tend to stick around in the league. Here's a sample:

Let's say I'm so dumb about basketball that all I know is that the best college programs in the country are Duke and UConn, and so as a GM my rule is only draft and/or trade for the first and second team players, in any given year, from those two schools. So I fire all my scouts. I disband my front office, and basically say that I cede my basketball judgment to Jim Calhoun and Mike K.

What's my team? It's some combination of Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Rip Hamilton, Corey Maggette, Jay Williams, Caron Butler, Donyell Marshall and Grant Hill -- which is a really wonderful team.

Now, of course, in the real world I couldn't get all those people, because lots of them were really high draft picks. But let's say I got Brand in a trade, after Chicago soured on him, and I was lucky enough to be in the lottery for Okafor. Maggette was a 13; Hamilton and Deng were 7s; and Butler was a 10 -- so at least some of them are doable, particularly since in off-years for Duke and UConn I can trade down and stockpile picks. Battier I wine and dine in the free agent market, because who wants to be stuck in Memphis? Ditto for Gordon, who, it seems, Chicago is thinking of moving anyway.

Is that the best team in the league?
No.
It is better than the Knicks?
Absolutely.

As I looked over the draft for the nth time today, I realized that drafting guys from marquee programs might not be such a bad idea.  These are guys who had to play within a team concept, were used to the celebrity that comes with pro ball, and had experience with a hardass college coach (not unlike Nate McMillan).  Players who probably went to ABCD camps in high school and will be playing against many of those same guys when they get to the next level.

So here are the alumni of those powerhouse programs who are well-represented this year.  After looking at it, check out a mock draft and see if any of these guys who drop might be worth picking up at #31.

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Obviously the draft pick most talked about this year is the lottery pick.  But did you know that the other two draft picks Portland holds this year have ended up as reasonably valuable NBA players?

The last pick in the first round offers the Blazers a chance to pick another guy they've always had an eye on.  The first pick of the second round isn't a guaranteed 3-year contract, so it offers the Blazers a first round value at a 2nd round price.  

Every year, a sad story continues to rear its ugly head:  a decent player, initially tabbed to be a mid-first rounder, falls completely out of the first round.  

For a European prospect it's always their potentially binding euroleague contract that kills them.  For the Americans, it's a guy with a questionable injury, attitude issues, or camp measurements.  A PF might register at  6-7... a 6-5 SG might come in at 6-2.

Whatever the case may be, Portland has enough picks in this draft to take risks.  And for every 5 risky players taken late, one of them always comes up big.

 
Gilbert Arenas fell out of the first round but was wearing an All-Star uniform just a few years later...

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From the diaries. I didn't know that the guy who sang "American Pie" played in the NBA, but if I'm Z-Bo, that comparison scares the hell out of me.--Lance Uppercut

I was checking out basketball-reference.com, my favorite NBA stats site, and I perused a feature that compares players based on their physical attributes and statistical data (mostly of the PER "Hollinger" type).  Then they sort by age (for example, Jordan at 21 was most similar to Kobe Bryant at 21.)

I thought it would be fun to take the 2005-2006 Blazers and see what type of team turned up on a similar "Bizarro Blazers" team, hooping it up in some alternate universe.  Keep in mind, I'm using the players listed in their 'best-case-scenario' column.

ahem...

AND NOW, YOUR BIZARRO BLAZERS!

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