I grabbed all of these numbers from the CAIRO projections. I defined replacement level as 1.28*LgAvg for starters and 1.07*LgAvg for relievers (or a 5.99 ERA for starters and a 5.01 ERA for relievers) Grabbing the number 5.81 IP/G for the average start, I calculated how many runs the replacement starters and replacement relievers would give up and subtracted the RAR from that (It was 905.8 RA, if you were wondering). Sean Smith's defensive numbers were used again. Using the RA and RS numbers, I used the Pythagenport (using .285) formula to determine the W-L record.

You may notice that the rotation has more than 162 games. The entire rotation, Corcoran, Lugo, and and Correia have all been projected as long reliever type pitchers who will make 15-30 starts. Between the 10 of them, you can probably squeak out 162 decent starts.

Rheinecker had a special calculation for his ERA. CAIRO has him defined as a swingman type reliever but I was looking more for a LOOGY role. To do this, I took a rough FIP of his splits and defined a LOOGY role as 52G 41IP (2004 Hardcore LOOGY) with half of the PAs facing RHB and the other half facing LHB. Using these numbers, gave 20.5IP for against RHB and LHB and using the FIP numbers calculated the numbers of runs given up. Using this runs number, I calculated the ERA.

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Inspired by the evaluation R.J. has been giving the free agents, I've decided to try my hand at doing so with the F.A.T. this blog has pointed out.

My method started off with grabbing the Batting Wins off Baseball-Reference for 2006-2008 and weighted it 5/4/3, like in the original method. For players who had little to no time at the MLB level for a year I went to the 2006-2008 MLEs [2006 2007 2008] and converted the numbers to wOBA. I then converted wOBA to Wins Above Average. In the place of Batting Wins, I slotted the WAA in. Using the number of number of wins above average, I divided it by the number of plate appearances made. Using this number (which is the number of Wins Above Average Per PA), I extrapolated it out to 650 PA, roughly 150 games.

Reliability is the number of PAs I was using divided by 2100 (700 PA * 3). 700 PA would be the number of PA for 162 games. For example, Chris Snelling has a grand total of 347 workable PAs, therefore his reliability is very low. A reliability score of 1.0 would mean that the player had 2100 PAs in 2006-2008. It's a rather arbitrary number but it'll give you a decent idea of the sample size I was working with.

There are many similarities between this post and the ones which R.J. has been using. The fielding number was grabbed from the CHONE Defensive Projections for 2009, is possible, otherwise I went to 2008, just like the free agent evaluation posts. Only Brian Myrow did not have any defensive data in either of these databases. The positional adjustments were made using Tango's positional adjustments, just like the free agent evaluation posts. WAR has 2.25 wins added on to switch from average to replacement, like their approach. $MM is calculated in the same fashion.

Projected PA is determined in 2004 MARCEL fashion. Half of the 2008 PAs + a tenth of the 2007 PAs + 200 PAs.

Don't put too much weight into my numbers, though. There's not too much going into them -- just throwing together some MLEs to help demonstrate the value of the F.A.T. on the market. It's more to give you a concept of their value rather than to be extremely accurate. Please also keep in mind that platoonability wasn't taken into account when determining the batting score.

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Sky's note: Even though this article turned out not to be some sort of R.J. Anderson-bashing piece, it was still worth bumping from a FanPost to the main blog.

There is a free agent left handed relief pitcher on the market. In 2008 during his time between A and AAA, he had a 7.28 K/BB ratio and struck out over 12 per 9 innings. If he had enough IP, he would have led the league in K/9 and BB/9. His career minor league K/BB is 9.04. He's only given up 4 HRs in 194 IP, good enough for a HR/9 for under 0.2. His career minor league WHIP is 0.90. He wasn't even a lucky pitcher -- his BABIP was .320 in 2008! Let's analyze the unique reliever R.J. Swindle.

R.J. Swindle via lehighvalleylive.com

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Last year, the bullpen came up big for the Yankees. Their 3.78 ERA was much better compared to the American League average of 4.13. Mariano Rivera proved himself to be one of the most amazing closers yet again with a WHIP under 0.700. With sub-4 ERA performances from young relievers such as Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Brian Bruney along side the reemergence (and sequential failure after being traded) of Kyle Farnsworth, the Yankees quickly turned a 2007 weakness into a 2008 strength. The question is now what is held in store for the bullpen in the upcoming 2009 season.

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The rotation was problematic in 2008. Last year, the Yankees suffered injuries to key players, such as Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain. Their rotation was a mess as they found poor performances out of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Even with many appearances by starters such as Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano, the Yankees remained a team with above average pitching. For the offseason, however, two big pitchers in Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina have filed for free agency and the rumors are swirling around about Yankee interest in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Using CAIRO projection system for the projections and CHONEs for the defensive projections, let's take a look at the various options the Yankees have for their 2009 rotation.

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Last year, the New York Yankees had a very difficult time putting together a satisfactory CF onto the field. With faltering performances from Melky Cabrera and the inability for Brett Gardner to come up big, center field became a big issue. According to OPD, the Yankees center field was worse by 16.1 runs compared to the average American League center fielder. To help alleviate the lack of a quality center fielder, there has been fan speculation on players such as Mike Cameron or trading Cano for Matt Kemp. I believe that these are not the best options. There is someone far more underrated and talented enough to hold the position -- Ryan Langerhans.

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