SB Nation User Blog: SanjiWatsuki

2009 F.A.T. Team

SanjiWatsuki — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 18:17:12 -0000

I grabbed all of these numbers from the CAIRO projections. I defined replacement level as 1.28*LgAvg for starters and 1.07*LgAvg for relievers (or a 5.99 ERA for starters and a 5.01 ERA for relievers) Grabbing the number 5.81 IP/G for the average start, I calculated how many runs the replacement starters and replacement relievers would give up and subtracted the RAR from that (It was 905.8 RA, if you were wondering). Sean Smith's defensive numbers were used again. Using the RA and RS numbers, I used the Pythagenport (using .285) formula to determine the W-L record.

You may notice that the rotation has more than 162 games. The entire rotation, Corcoran, Lugo, and and Correia have all been projected as long reliever type pitchers who will make 15-30 starts. Between the 10 of them, you can probably squeak out 162 decent starts.

Rheinecker had a special calculation for his ERA. CAIRO has him defined as a swingman type reliever but I was looking more for a LOOGY role. To do this, I took a rough FIP of his splits and defined a LOOGY role as 52G 41IP (2004 Hardcore LOOGY) with half of the PAs facing RHB and the other half facing LHB. Using these numbers, gave 20.5IP for against RHB and LHB and using the FIP numbers calculated the numbers of runs given up. Using this runs number, I calculated the ERA.

Player	Pos	G	ERA	IP	RAR
Justin Germano	SP	29	4.60	159	24.56
Claudio Vargas	SP	27	4.72	133	18.77
Enrique Gonzalez	SP	33	4.54	117	18.86
Tomo Ohka	SP	19	5.26	110	8.93
Jack Cassel	SP	32	5.06	155	16.02
Adam Bernero	SP	21	4.94	77	8.99
Adam Bass	SP	34	5.21	104	9.02
Total:		195	5.01	855	105.15
Player	Pos	G	ERA	IP	RAR
R.J. Swindle	CL	37	2.79	49	12.07
Kevin Correia	SU	42	4.68	114	4.15
Tim Corcoran	RP	30	4.59	86	3.99
Chris Schroder	RP	55	4.09	68	6.93
Ruddy Lugo	RP	45	4.83	108	2.13
Chad Paronto	RP	55	4.10	67	6.76
John "Rheino" Rheinecker	RP	52	4.43	41	2.63
Total:		316	4.46	533	38.67

2008 ML Average:		162	4.68	1444.43	147.64
2009 Extrapolated:		162		1444.43	149.66

Player	Pos	PA	BR	RS
Chris Stewart	C	600	50.68	Good
Brian Myrow	1B	600	74.81
Ryan Roberts	2B	600	63.46	2
Morgan Ensberg	3B	600	68.8	-2
Adam Everett	SS	600	46.72	19
Jason Perry	LF	600	78.78	0
Ryan Langerhans	CF	600	64.97	9
John Rodriguez	RF	600	76.78	-1
Chris Shelton	DH	600	76.7	0
Starters Total		5400	601.7	27
Bench Total		1004	97	0
Positional Total:			698.7	27

	RA	RS	Wins	Losses
Team Total:	756	699	75.03	86.97

Observations: There are some good starters on the market but no good lefty starters.

There are also several good relievers on the market and some are lefty.

Overall, the pitching isn't that bad. You might be able to grab some bargain. If R.J. Swindle truly is practically a bullpen ace, he might be a very solid pickup.

Two other catchers on the market, J.R. House and Sandy Madera, are the anti-thesis of Chris Stewart -- great hitting but terrible fielding. It's hard to quantify how many runs defensively they are different because TINSTAAGCP (There is No Such Thing as a Good Catching Projection). All I can say is that J.R. House is one of the worst defensive catchers in the minor league and Chris Stewart is pretty good.

On the whole, you can find some good F.A.T. fielders but the hitting part is more difficult. Your best hitter looks like Jason Perry and he doesn't break 80 BR.

Valuing the F.A.T. [Fielders and Hitters]

SanjiWatsuki — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 05:49:21 -0000

Inspired by the evaluation R.J. has been giving the free agents, I've decided to try my hand at doing so with the F.A.T. this blog has pointed out.

My method started off with grabbing the Batting Wins off Baseball-Reference for 2006-2008 and weighted it 5/4/3, like in the original method. For players who had little to no time at the MLB level for a year I went to the 2006-2008 MLEs [2006 2007 2008] and converted the numbers to wOBA. I then converted wOBA to Wins Above Average. In the place of Batting Wins, I slotted the WAA in. Using the number of number of wins above average, I divided it by the number of plate appearances made. Using this number (which is the number of Wins Above Average Per PA), I extrapolated it out to 650 PA, roughly 150 games.

Reliability is the number of PAs I was using divided by 2100 (700 PA * 3). 700 PA would be the number of PA for 162 games. For example, Chris Snelling has a grand total of 347 workable PAs, therefore his reliability is very low. A reliability score of 1.0 would mean that the player had 2100 PAs in 2006-2008. It's a rather arbitrary number but it'll give you a decent idea of the sample size I was working with.

There are many similarities between this post and the ones which R.J. has been using. The fielding number was grabbed from the CHONE Defensive Projections for 2009, is possible, otherwise I went to 2008, just like the free agent evaluation posts. Only Brian Myrow did not have any defensive data in either of these databases. The positional adjustments were made using Tango's positional adjustments, just like the free agent evaluation posts. WAR has 2.25 wins added on to switch from average to replacement, like their approach. $MM is calculated in the same fashion.

Projected PA is determined in 2004 MARCEL fashion. Half of the 2008 PAs + a tenth of the 2007 PAs + 200 PAs.

Don't put too much weight into my numbers, though. There's not too much going into them -- just throwing together some MLEs to help demonstrate the value of the F.A.T. on the market. It's more to give you a concept of their value rather than to be extremely accurate. Please also keep in mind that platoonability wasn't taken into account when determining the batting score.

Pos	Player	650PA	Field	Pos	WAR	$MM	Reliability	Proj. PA
CF	Ryan Langerhans	-1.6	0.9	0.25	1.82	$9.23	0.48	422
SS	Adam Everett	-3.1	1.9	0.75	1.76	$8.90	0.45	299
1B	Brian Myrow	0.5		-1.25	1.54	$7.86	0.43	450
LF/RF	Ryan Langerhans	-1.6	1.4	-0.75	1.32	$6.81	0.48	422
2B	Ryan Roberts	-1.4	0.2	0.25	1.28	$6.59	0.63	504
LF/RF	Jason Perry	-0.3	0	-0.75	1.17	$6.05	0.66	465
LF/RF	John Rodriguez	-0.3	-0.1	-0.75	1.15	$5.96	0.34	341
2B	Jayson Nix	-2.2	0.7	0.25	1.01	$5.30	0.59	432
1B	Chris Shelton	-0.2	0.1	-1.25	0.95	$4.97	0.67	463
LF/RF	Laynce Nix	-0.5	-0.1	-0.75	0.91	$4.82	0.57	450
LF/RF	Victor Diaz	-0.2	-0.4	-0.75	0.9	$4.76	0.61	508
2B	Ivan Ochoa	-1.9	0.2	0.25	0.78	$4.18	0.53	456
CF	Chris Duffy	-2.4	0.7	0.25	0.76	$4.09	0.35	288
2B	Adam Kennedy	-2.3	0.6	0.25	0.76	$4.07	0.56	413
LF/RF	Emil Brown	-1.2	0.4	-0.75	0.72	$3.89	0.68	459
CF	Tike Redman	-1.8	-0.1	0.25	0.62	$3.42	0.68	511
LF/RF	Chris Snelling	-0.9	0	-0.75	0.59	$3.24	0.17	280
SS	Cesar Izturis	-3.4	0.8	0.75	0.43	$2.48	0.48	461
LF/RF	Tike Redman	-1.8	0.7	-0.75	0.42	$2.45	0.68	511
LF/RF	Chris Duffy	-2.4	1.3	-0.75	0.36	$2.15	0.35	288
1B	Ben Broussard	-0.6	-0.3	-1.25	0.11	$0.93	0.55	439
LF/RF	Kevin Mench	-1.5	-0.4	-0.75	-0.42	-$1.65	0.53	396
1B	Wes Bankston	-1.8	-0.2	-1.25	-0.97	-$4.32	0.58	445
LF/RF	Jason Lane	-1.7	-0.9	-0.75	-1.08	-$4.80	0.61	476

Observations:

There is some decent value from the F.A.T., especially when you compare it to the Mid-Range Free Agent Hitters.
Ryan Langerhans especially stands out. His defensive prowess, like most defensive players, is seriously underrated. His defense may be a click below Endy Chavez but he should still be a great bench player -- and argubly a decent starting outfielder.
Brian Myrow was the only hitter to finish with a positive score for hitting. If he can play average defense, he could potentially be a great pick up. A more cost-effective Kevin Millar?
Adam Everett deserves a shot. His bat is definitely below replacement level but there is no doubting the runs he saves with the globe. If he can rebound from his struggles in 2008, he'll be a great pick up.
Snelling has gotten almost no PA between 2006-2008. I didn't know he was that fragile.

F.A.T. of the Land: R.J. Swindle

SanjiWatsuki — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 21:41:46 -0000

Sky's note: Even though this article turned out not to be some sort of R.J. Anderson-bashing piece, it was still worth bumping from a FanPost to the main blog.

There is a free agent left handed relief pitcher on the market. In 2008 during his time between A and AAA, he had a 7.28 K/BB ratio and struck out over 12 per 9 innings. If he had enough IP, he would have led the league in K/9 and BB/9. His career minor league K/BB is 9.04. He's only given up 4 HRs in 194 IP, good enough for a HR/9 for under 0.2. His career minor league WHIP is 0.90. He wasn't even a lucky pitcher -- his BABIP was .320 in 2008! Let's analyze the unique reliever R.J. Swindle.

R.J. Swindle via lehighvalleylive.com

After becoming the Big South Player of the Year in 2003, R.J. Swindle was drafted in the 2004 Amateur Draft by the Boston Red Sox in the 14th round. In short season A ball, Swindle quickly went to work in relief and struck out 56 batters while only walking 4 in 51 innings. Surely a pitcher of this caliber and only 21 would have been given a chance, but instead Swindle was met with a cut. Swindle bounced around in the independent leagues for a while until he was signed by the New York Yankees. He gave up 3 earned runs in 46 innings pitched for them between A and AAA for an ERA of 0.59. His peripherals were, once again, amazing with a 9.0 K/9 and a 9.2 K/BB ratio. He was released again for his efforts. The Phillies were the next team to give him a shot and he got 67 Ks and 8 BBs in less than 50 IP. He is released again and is currently a minor league free agent.

R.J. Swindle has been dominant for his entire minor league career and no team has truly given him a shot. How could such a talent go so ignored? The answer is, quite simply, scouting. Swindle's fastball tops out at a grand total of 82 miles an hour. His curveball averages 55 mph and his slider rarely goes above 75 mph. Swindle throws slower than Tim Wakefield, yet he somehow posts video game-like numbers.

In 2008, the Phillies called up Swindle and gave him 3 appearances. In all of them, he got shelled heavily and gave up an uncharacteristically high 2 HRs, 2 walks, and 9 hits in 4.7 IP. His BABIP was over .400. This hardly proves that Swindle can't cut the mustard at the major league level when you consider the sample size and everything else.

Here are Swindle's career minor league stats.

Year	Level	Age	W	L	G	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ER	ERA	WHIP	FIP
2004	A-	20	5	1	12	0	51	42		4	56	11	1.94	0.90	1.24
2006	TOT	22			22	3	46	36	0	5	46	3	0.59	0.89	1.40
	A-				21	2	44	35	0	5	46	3	0.61	0.91	1.38
	AAA				1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.50	1.70
2007	TOT	23	2	2	32	13	44	31	3	8	57	11	2.25	0.89	2.11
	A		2	1	20	10	29	16	0	5	36	3	0.93	0.72	1.34
	A+		0	1	12	3	15	15	3	3	20	8	4.80	1.20	3.73
2008	TOT		3	1	38	1	53	41	1	8	67	9	1.53	0.92	1.37
	AA	24	1	0	11	0	16.2	8	0	1	16	1	0.54	0.54	1.41
	AAA		2	1	27	1	36.1	33	1	7	51	8	1.98	1.10	1.32
Career:			10	4	104	17	194	150	4	25	226	34	1.58	0.90	1.51

Here are Swindle's MLEs for 2008.

Team	Last	First	Org	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	FIP
Reading	Swindle	Robert	PHI	1	0	2.40	11	0	15.0	13	4	1	1	10	0	2.59
Lehigh Valley	Swindle	Robert	PHI	2	1	3.60	27	0	35.0	36	14	3	8	35	0	3.07

MARCEL has an R of 0.02, so I'm simply going to toss that number out. There is no way a prediction would be reliable.

CAIRO placed R.J. Swindle at 11.5 RSAR. For an idea, two other 11.5 RSAR relievers are Scot Shields and Hideki Okajima.

Overall, there is almost nothing to lose by signing R.J. Swindle to a contract. He's a minor league free agent currently and he has massive upside. Personally, I can see Swindle finding success as either a LOOGY (and I was surprised not to see this junkballing lefty in the F.A.T. LOOGY list) or perhaps being dominant enough to hold a setup man job. If some team is willing to take a shot with a pitcher who is hated by scouts but loved by statistics they might find a gem in the rough with R.J. Swindle.

2009 Yankees Bullpen Outlook

SanjiWatsuki — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:08:11 -0000

Last year, the bullpen came up big for the Yankees. Their 3.78 ERA was much better compared to the American League average of 4.13. Mariano Rivera proved himself to be one of the most amazing closers yet again with a WHIP under 0.700. With sub-4 ERA performances from young relievers such as Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Brian Bruney along side the reemergence (and sequential failure after being traded) of Kyle Farnsworth, the Yankees quickly turned a 2007 weakness into a 2008 strength. The question is now what is held in store for the bullpen in the upcoming 2009 season.

Listed below is the current bullpen situation for the Yankees.

Player	Pos	G	IP	RSAR	Contract $	$/WAR
Mariano Rivera	CL	66	73	21	15MM	$7,142,857
David Robertson	SU	54	64	16.5	$400K	$242,424
Edwar Ramirez	RP	47	55	8	$400K	$500,000
Dan Giese	RP	45	80	6	$400K	$666,667
Chris Britton	RP	49	64	5	$400K	$800,000
Jose Veras	RP	57	59	3	$400K	$1,333,333
Brian Bruney	RP	46	47	1	$725K+	$7,250,000
Total:		364	442	60.5	$17,725,000	$2,929,752

With 6 cost controlled arms and one of the best closers of all-time in the bullpen, it looks to be a very efficient bullpen. Last year, the bullpen saved 64 runs above replacement and this projection has the bullpen at a similar 60 runs saved. Let's break down each arm individually and look into the possibilities of other arms.

Mariano Rivera (8.27 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 2.66 FIP) [21 RSAR]

What much can be said about Mo? His sheer dominance in 2008 was phenomenal and CAIRO believes he'll have another great year. With impeccable control and an amazing cutter, Rivera will be a solid reliever for the Yankees yet again.

David Robertson (8.91 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 3.68 FIP) [16.5 RSAR]

CAIRO seems overly optimistic on David Robertson, in my opinion, but I do feel that Robertson can be a very quality arm in the bullpen. His FIP+ was 130 and his FIP was 3.43. His career minor league ERA is 1.24 and his career minor league WHIP is 0.93. He has 190 Ks in 138 IP in his two years in the minor league. He was drafted in the 17th round of the 2006 draft. His fastball sits in the low 90s and he shows a plus slider. Overall, Robertson has a lot of potential. Seeing him match his projection wouldn't surprise me.

Edwar Ramirez (9.95 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.68 FIP) [8 RSAR]

Edwar's plus-plus change-up makes his game. His fastball stays in the low 90s but his change is the star of the show. After a lack of progress in the Angels minor league system, Ramirez pitched in Indy Leagues, where he taught himself the change. The Yankees signed him and Edwar has blazed through their minor league system and shown effectiveness in the major league level. His FIP+ last year was 111 and his career K/9 is over 11. His control could be better and he is a bit prone to HRs but this lanky righty with a Bugs Bunny change is one of my personal favorite relievers and he projects to be a very effective reliever out of the bullpen.

Dan Giese (5.78 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 4.16 FIP) [6 RSAR]

Unlike the previous relievers, Giese is not going to overpower anyone. He's already over 30 but he came up big for the Yankees last year. CAIRO believes that he'll remain a solid player and isn't a flash in the plan, ala Aaron Small. In a nutshell, Giese throws strikes. His fastball stays in the low 90s and his hard slider isn't anything special, but he'll get the job done out of the bullpen.

Chris Britton (6.47 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 4.23 FIP) [5 RSAR]

Britton has been bouncing back and forth between the minor leagues and the Yankees for quite some time. When he arrives in New York, they tell him that he has to return to Scranton. Britton has a career 3.83 ERA and struggled with his command last year. Right-handed hitters have struggled against him to a .200/.252/.376 clip but when a left-handed hitter faces Britton they turn into Aramis Ramirez with a .309/.386/.471 line. Either way, Britton shows a nice curveball and a fastball which touches 93 mph.

Jose Veras (7.89 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 4.49 FIP) [3 RSAR]

In 2005, Jose Veras announced that he signed with the Yankees. Even though he wasn't thought as being a quality pitcher, he announcted "I feel proud that the Yankees have signed me to help set the table for Mariano Rivera." In 2008, his prediction came true and Veras was the Yankees' set-up man. Veras can pitch in the mid-90s and throws a decent slider, but struggles with his command. CAIRO isn't confident that Veras' 2008 performance could be repeated in 2009, but feels that he could be a quality arm out of the bullpen. I'm inclined to agree.

Brian Bruney (7.88 K/9, 5.72 BB/9, 4.92 FIP) [1 RSAR]

After a 7.43 ERA year in 2005 for the Diamondbacks, Bruney was DFA and picked up by the Yankees. In 2006, Bruney posted a 519 ERA+. Bruney, at his best, can touch 100mph but mostly stays in the mid-90s. At the end of the year, Bruney's slider was clocking in at 90mph. The biggest problem with Bruney is his lack of control, as indicated by his projected 5.72 BB/9. After 2006, I bet that Bruney would never make an effective setup man, but in 2008 I had to eat crow. I'm agreeing with FIP again and making that same announcement -- and I hope I'm wrong for a second time.

Mark Melancon (6.67 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 4.50 FIP) [4.9 RSAR]

Melancon is currently one of the Yankees top prospects. He dropped to the Yankees in 2006 due to an injury. Baseball America has listed him as the 9th best prospect going into 2009. Melancon came off Tommy John Surgury in 2008 and has been a very effective reliever in the minor leagues. Armed with an above-averaged fastball which clocks in at 92-95 and a power curve, Melancon has been labelled as the next Joba. CAIRO appears to believe that Melancon will show up and be an effective RP out of the bullpen. I'm sure he'll see a call-up during the season, but I highly doubt he will be starting the season with the major league team.

Phil Coke (No CAIRO relief numbers)

Phil Coke was simply impressive in 2008. He was a left-handed reliever with a fastball touching 96 mph. He ended the year with a 0.61 ERA and a 7 K:BB ratio. Coke can work as both a starter or a reliever. I wouldn't look too much into his ridiculous '08 numbers because of the small sample size but I wouldn't count Coke out. As a starter, CAIRO set him at 3.2 RSAR.

Humberto Sanchez (No CAIRO relief numbers)

I would have listed Sanchez over Bruney or Veras in the bullpen, but he has been getting killed in Arizona to the tune of a 15.26 ERA. Depending on his Spring Training, though, I could easily see Sanchez breaking into the bullpen. The Yankees may try him out as a starter at first, but I feel Humberto will end up as a reliever in the end.

Damaso Marte (9.46 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 3.36 FIP) [8.7 RSAR]

Marte's option was declined, but the Yankees are working out a 3 year/12 million deal, I believe. Marte would provide a lefty arm in the bullpen and would almost add an entire win. Marte works with a low 90s fastball and a slider and is simply dominating against lefty hitters. They'll struggle to post an average over .150 against Marte. If he leaves, we should be able to pick up draft picks, thanks to his Type-A status. If he stays, we'll have 7.7 RSAR over Bruney. Win-Win situation.

R.J. Swindle (8.22 K/9, 1.50 BB/9, 2.92 FIP) [11.5 RSAR]

All I can say is GET IT DONE, CASH! My word! I can't believe the Phillies let this man hit free agency as a minor league free agent! He struck out 51 in less than 37 innings and had a K/BB ratio of over 7 in AAA this year. He's left-handed and only 25. He's one of the most dominant unorthodox relievers in the game. Swindle doesn't even touch 85 mph with his fastball and his curveball tops out at less than 65. He baffles hitters with them. His minor league equivalents against lefties say he'll hold them at a .156 average. The statistics love this man. He deserves a shot. The risk is extremely low and the potential gain is amazing. Just look at how much CHONEs loves him. CHONEs loves him as much as Scot Shields and Hideki Okajima. Swindle could be an amazing buy-low free agent.

Overall, it's a very good sign -- the Yankees finally have the pitching depth as to not sign overpriced relievers out of free agency. Even the best RP arms in free agency are simply not worth the money spent on them. With Marte over Bruney and the possibility of Sanchez/Melancon/Coke coming up big, I expect the Yankees bullpen to provide over the 66 RSAR which they posted last year in the bullpen. With Swindle, they could possible be 74 RSAR or better. Their abundance of quality pitchers has given them a big advantage over other teams.

2009 Yankees Starting Pitching Outlook

SanjiWatsuki — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 17:58:23 -0000

The rotation was problematic in 2008. Last year, the Yankees suffered injuries to key players, such as Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain. Their rotation was a mess as they found poor performances out of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Even with many appearances by starters such as Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano, the Yankees remained a team with above average pitching. For the offseason, however, two big pitchers in Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina have filed for free agency and the rumors are swirling around about Yankee interest in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Using CAIRO projection system for the projections and CHONEs for the defensive projections, let's take a look at the various options the Yankees have for their 2009 rotation.

As it stands, here is the Yankees 2009 payroll.

Player	Owed
Alex Rodriguez	$32,000,000
Derek Jeter	$20,000,000
Mariano Rivera	$15,000,000
Jorge Posada	$13,100,000
Hideki Matsui	$13,000,000
Johnny Damon	$13,000,000
Robinson Cano	$6,000,000
Jason Giambi	$5,000,000
Chien-Ming Wang	$5,000,000
Xavier Nady	$4,000,000
Kei Igawa	$4,000,000
Jose Molina	$2,000,000
Carl Pavano	$1,950,000
Wilson Betemit	$1,398,000
Brian Bruney	$870,000
Melky Cabrera	$553,440
Cody Ransom	$543,000
Juan Miranda	$500,000
Dan Giese	$495,000
Phil Hughes	$487,620
Shelley Duncan	$477,960
Ian Kennedy	$473,130
Jonathan Albaladejo	$471,870
Joba Chamberlan	$468,000
Jose Veras	$458,970
Chase Wright	$400,000
Edwar Ramirez	$400,000
Jeff Marquez	$400,000
Brett Gardner	$400,000
Humberto Sanchez	$400,000
David Robertson	$400,000
Darrell Rasner	$400,000
Chris Britton	$400,000
Alfredo Aceves	$400,000
Justin Christian	$400,000
Phil Coke	$400,000
Chad Moeller	$400,000
Francisco Cervelli	$400,000
Total:	$146,446,990

Now, grabbing some things from MLB Trade Rumors Offseason Outlook, here is how the roster adds up.

SP - Chien-Ming Wang - $4MM+ [21.6 RSAR]
SP - Joba Chamberlain - $400K [29.2 RSAR]
SP - Phil Hughes - $407K [13.9 RSAR]
SP - Ian Kennedy - $400K [11.9 RSAR]
SP - Alfredo Aceves - $400K [14.4 RSAR]

RP - Mariano Rivera - $15MM [21 RSAR]
RP - Brian Bruney - $725K+ [1 RSAR]
RP - Jose Veras - $400K [3 RSAR]
RP - Edwar Ramirez - $400K [8 RSAR]
RP - Phil Coke - $400K [CAIRO has no RP data]
RP - David Robertson - $400K [16.5 RSAR]
RP - Dan Giese - $400K [6 RSAR]

Starting with the pitching, it doesn't look especially great as is. If we sub in Chris Britton for Phil Coke, we get 15.1 Wins Above Replacement for the pitching. This bullpen is only 60.5 RSAR, compared to last year's 64 RSAR. That's two losses from simply the bullpen.This rotation looks to be solid for 91 RSAR, compared to last year's 67 RSAR. Considering replacement level to be roughly 945 runs scored, this pitching looks good for 793 runs allowed. Remember, however, in this projection those 5 starters combined for 661 IP, or 132.2 IP per starter, and the rest being filled with replacement level pitching. Hopefully, the real starters would be able to provide more than that.

Overall, this team allow 811 runs when you factor in fielding. With their current lineup, it would be good for a Pythagorean record of 81-81. Given that this team is using replacement level Juan Miranda and near replacement level Brett Gardner in the lineup and has Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Alfredo Aceves pitching for less than 400IP in the rotation, things are not that bad if the Yankees strut their money. In the words of FanGraphs, the Evil Empire is preparing to reload. Last year, the payroll was around $210MM. Let's see the starting pitching options for 2009.

CC Sabathia [53 RSAR]
Most Yankees fans, however, want C.C. Sabathia. This guy starting pitcher is currently set at 53 runs saved above replacement. Essentially, he's over 40 runs better than one of the Yankees' current starters. Teixeira and Sabathia have virtually the same overall gains for the Yankees. Personally, I'd go with Teixeira simply because I trust Teixeira's attrition rate more than Sabathia's. They're both excellent players who will command over 20 million per year in free agency this year but questions with long term pitching commitments makes me prefer Teix. If the Yankees get Sabathia or Teix (or both), it'll be great for the team. It wouldn't surprise me to see Sabathia get 25 million per year.
AJ Burnett [37 RSAR]
CAIRO has placed AJ Burnett at 37 runs above replacement. Burnett has been known for his lack of durability but fantastic stuff. His fastball averaged 94.3 miles per hour last year. He's already proven in the AL East. Other Yankees sites, such as NoMaas, have chosen a standpoint against Burnett because of his injury history. In a nutshell, Burnett will add 2-3 wins to the Yankees if he is healthy, but his health is the question.
Ben Sheets [33 RSAR]
Ben Sheets deserved a Cy Young in his career at least once. His control and stuff are both great. Sheets has a plus curve and a plus fastball which averaged at 92.6 mph last year. When he's healthy, this man is an ace. Unfortunately, his injury issues have been hindering across his entire career. CAIRO put Sheets at 33 RSAR -- roughly the same as Jake Peavy out of PETCO. I'm thinking that Sheets doesn't get as much money as Burnett this offseason. Sheets would be a fine addition to the rotation over a Kennedy or a Hughes.
Mike Mussina [27.2 RSAR]
Mike Mussina is currently leaning toward retirement, I last heard, but I would love to resign this man. CAIRO believes he'll be 27.2 runs above replacement. He'd be a great 1-1.5 win gain over anyone else in the rotation. He'll be 40 next year, but this future Hall of Famer would be welcome back with open arms.
Andy Pettitte [25.6 RSAR]
CAIRO is equally optimistic about Andy Pettitte with 25.6 RSAR predicted. Last year, Andy posted a 3.74 FIP, which means luck (or the terrible defense the Yankees were placing on the field) was against him in 2008. A stable rock in the rotation, Pettitte has posted over 200 IP every year for the past 4 years. He only wants a one-year contract from the Yankees. He most likely won't get 16 million again. Andy Pettitte is a great sign for the Yankees and I would love to have him in the rotation for another year.
Derek Lowe [37 RSAR]
Lowe is a supposed bargain of the free agency this year and he has the potential to be a very good pitcher. CAIRO is predicting 37 RSAR for Lowe and Lowe, most likely, will not demand as much money as the other top flight pitchers this year. He mostly throws a sinker, which is dominant when he is on. This, however, is the reason why I believe he may not be the perfect fit for the Yankees. His GB/FB ratio is almost always above 3 and he is amazing when he has a great infield defense. Depending on how Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano play their gloves, he may not be able to perform to his true potential. I really do love Derek Lowe and I do feel that he is a great bargain, but his potential for the Yankees may not be as high as it is with other teams.
Oliver Perez [10.8 RSAR]

CAIRO essentially tells me what I've always thought about Oliver Perez. He's not a very good pitcher. He's only seen as 10.8 runs above replacement. Perez does maintain a great strikeout rate but his control is very erratic. He struck out 180 but walked 105 last year. Looking at SBNation's very own Beyond the Box Score, Perez has a FIP+ of 91. He could potentially rebound, but I don't want to see this guy on the Yankees.
Jon Garland [17.3 RSAR]
Like Perez, I don't like Garland, but I prefer Garland to Perez. His FIP+ was 89 last year and CAIRO thinks he'll be 17 runs above replacement. Jon Garland has always been a low K low BB inning eater -- very dependable. He uses a sinker, curve, and change to get outs and has a career 1.29 GB/FB ratio. Overall, Garland is probably worth 9-10 million, but I don't want the Yankees to grab him. He just isn't up to par with the other pitchers.
Jake Peavy [33 RSAR]

Grabbing numbers from Replacement Level Yankees (I suggest checking them out; they've got great stuff), Peavy is only 33 RSAR when you take him out of PETCO. That's 20 runs worse than Sabathia and 4 worse than Burnett. Realistically, Peavy is going to demand a massive amount of talent, a payraise because of the league switch, and his contract isn't exactly a bargain. I, personally, do not want Jake Peavy. His performance is simply not good enough for the Yankees when you consider all of the resources it will take to get him.

Sabathia, Lowe, Sheets, Mussina, and Pettitte are the main free agent pitchers I would love to sign. All of them would improve the Yankees by 1-4 wins and wouldn't require a trade, like Peavy. If the Yankees want to have a payroll around 200 million, they have 54 million in spending. They still have holes in RF and 1B. My personal plan is to sign Sabathia and bring back Pettitte, leaving the 5th rotation spot for everyone to fight over. We have starting pitching depth -- let's use it.

At this point, let's look at the new plan.

Player	Pos	G	IP	RSAR	Contract $	$/WAR
C.C. Sabathia	SP	33	229	53	$23MM+	$4,339,623
Andy Pettitte	SP	34	210	25.6	$13MM+	$5,078,125
Joba Chamberlain	SP	39*	117	29.2	$400K	$136,986
Chien-Ming Wang	SP	26	163	21.6	$4MM+	$1,851,852
Alfredo Aceves	SP	32*	169	14.4	$400K	$277,778
Phil Hughes	SP	21	106	13.9	$400K+	$287,770
Ian Kennedy	SP	4	21	1.7	$400K	$2,352,941
Total:		162	1015	159.4	$41,600,000	$2,609,787

Mariano Rivera	CL	66	73	21	15MM	$7,142,857
David Robertson	SU	54	64	16.5	$400K	$242,424
Edwar Ramirez	RP	47	55	8	$400K	$500,000
Dan Giese	RP	45	80	6	$400K	$666,667
Chris Britton	RP	49	64	5	$400K	$800,000
Jose Veras	RP	57	59	3	$400K	$1,333,333
Brian Bruney	RP	46	47	1	$725K+	$7,250,000
Total:		364	442	60.5	$17,725,000	$2,929,752

2008 AL Average:		162	1444.43	170.6
2009 NY Regressed:		162	1444.43	218	$59,325,000.00	$2,721,294.66

Player	Pos	PA	BR	RS	Contract $
Jorge Posada	C	600	87.46	-9	$13,100,000
Juan Miranda	1B	600	70.82	-3	$400,000
Robinson Cano	2B	600	76.23	0	$6,000,000
Alex Rodriguez	3B	600	104.49	-2	$32,000,000
Derek Jeter	SS	600	77.63	-13	$20,000,000
Johnny Damon	LF	600	78.97	6	$13,000,000
Brett Gardner	CF	600	60.93	9	$400,000
Xavier Nady	RF	600	80.28	-5	$4,000,000
Hideki Matsui	DH	600	80.41	0	$13,000,000
Starters Total		5400	717.22	-17	$101,900,000
Bench Total		1004	97	0	$4,027,000
Positional Total:			814.22	-17	$105,927,000

	RA	RS	Wins	Losses	Payroll	Marginal Win $
Team Total:	744	814	88.26	73.74	$182,446,990.00	$3,883,904.69

* Chamberlain made only 16 starts in this; Aceves made 28.

Essentially, this team would be a 740 runs allowed team. Together with our current offense, it would be an 88.26 win team. We've used 36-39MM of our 54-64MM payroll reserve, however. With 18-28 million left, we can move to improving our bullpen and/or lineup. Remembering that the Rays won the division with 97 wins, can the Yankees pull 10 more wins out of this offseason and become the favorites for the American League East?

The 2009 Yankees Center Field Situation

SanjiWatsuki — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 03:48:32 -0000

Last year, the New York Yankees had a very difficult time putting together a satisfactory CF onto the field. With faltering performances from Melky Cabrera and the inability for Brett Gardner to come up big, center field became a big issue. According to OPD, the Yankees center field was worse by 16.1 runs compared to the average American League center fielder. To help alleviate the lack of a quality center fielder, there has been fan speculation on players such as Mike Cameron or trading Cano for Matt Kemp. I believe that these are not the best options. There is someone far more underrated and talented enough to hold the position -- Ryan Langerhans.

Here is how the Yankees currently project using CHONEs 2009 Defensive Projections and MINER Batting Projections (regressed to 600 PA)

Player	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jorge Posada	C	600	21.96	-9	1.3
Juan Miranda	1B	600	1.24	0	0.12
Robinson Cano	2B	600	16.42	0	1.64
Alex Rodriguez	3B	600	41.14	-2	3.91
Derek Jeter	SS	600	23.45	-13	1.05
Johnny Damon	LF	600	12.71	6	1.87
Brett Gardner	CF	600	-3.04	5	0.2
Xavier Nady	RF	600	11.56	-5	0.66
Hideki Matsui	DH	600	10.22	0	1.02
Starters Total		5400	135.66	-18	11.8
Bench Total		1004	0	0	0
Team Total	117.66		135.66	-18	11.8

With this line up, CHONEs isn't very happy. -18 runs projected for runs saved (which isn't that bad, considering they were roughly -56 runs last year) and only 135.66 Batting Runs Above Replacement. This team might crack 60 wins with replacement level pitching, but that is no good. The offense is not good enough overall, however. This lineup looks solid for 750 runs -- less than the 789 the Yankees scored in 2008. Essentially, not good enough with the bat and we still have defensive issues.

The best way to improve our lineup is, surprisingly, through defensive improvements. Cost effective measures will allow money to go to free agents such as Sabathia. To improve the lineup, we don't need gigantic free agents such as Teixeira or Manny Ramirez (although, they could be helpful). We need cheap high bang-for-your-buck role players. We need people such as Ryan Langerhans.

Listed below are a few options for a Yankees CF using using CHONEs 2009 Defensive Projections and MINER Batting Projections (regressed to 600 PA)

2009 Yankees CF Options
Player	AVG	OBA	SLG	BR(600 PA)	FRAA (RF)	FRAA(CF)	Total(CF)
Mike Cameron	.257	.347	.477	87.26	9	3	90.26
Johnny Damon	.277	.347	.427	78.97	6	-2	76.97
Ryan Langerhans	.228	.331	.361	64.97	14	9	73.97
Brett Gardner	.249	.332	.328	60.93	11	5	65.93
Gabe Kapler	.276	.331	.436	75.76	-2	-12	63.76
Melky Cabrera	.263	.319	.376	62.47	5	-3	59.47

From this list, the best choice is obviously Mike Cameron. He's better than the 2nd best option listed, Johnny Damon, by a factor of 1.3 wins. Unfortunately, Cameron's option was picked up and therefore a trade would be required.

The second best option for center is Johnny Damon. The problem here is that Johnny Damon has been a very good left fielder for us and Matsui can no longer take the field. Damon fits very well in left field for the Yankees. He'll give us a strong bat and an above average glove. I wouldn't be opposed to trading Damon while has value is high if the right deal came along, however.

The third in the list is a name that I haven't heard Yankee fans talk about. Ryan Langerhans is a 28-year-old outfielder who came up with the Atlanta Braves. In 2004, he was considered the Braves best defensive outfielder and the 48th best hitting prospect in the National League. After six seasons in the major leagues, he has a .713 career OPS and an 86 OPS+. Last year, Langerhans had a 104 OPS+ in 111 ABs. CAIRO says he'll hit .228/.331/.361 while 2009 MARCELS says .238/.346/.385. Either way, he'll be a satisfactory center fielder with a very good glove. Langerhans will not command a large amount of money, nor will he command draft picks.

Suppose we strictly sign Langerhans and toss Gardner and Melky out of the equation.

Player	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jorge Posada	C	600	21.96	-9	1.3
Juan Miranda	1B	600	2	-3	-0.1
Robinson Cano	2B	600	16.42	0	1.64
Alex Rodriguez	3B	600	41.14	-2	3.91
Derek Jeter	SS	600	23.45	-13	1.05
Johnny Damon	LF	600	12.71	6	1.87
Ryan Langerhans	CF	600	4.4	9	1.34
Xavier Nady	RF	600	13	-5	0.8
Hideki Matsui	DH	600	10.22	0	1.02
Starters Total		5400	145.3	-17	12.8
Bench Total		1004	0	0	0
Team Total			145.3	-17	12.8

Langerhans adds an extra win. All he costs is a small amount of money. This, however, isn't the best scanario. Consider the following.

Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera are both currently with the Yankees. If one of them could rebound, it would be great moving forward. CHONEs isn't optimistic on Cabrera's defense in center but it is entirely possible that Melky can bring back solid defense, as well. Gardner is also known for his defensive prowess. Even if they don't get their bats back, signing Langerhans and playing one of them in center options up two interesting options.

Player	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jorge Posada	C	600	21.96	-9	1.3
Xavier Nady	1B	600	11	4	1.5
Robinson Cano	2B	600	16.42	0	1.64
Alex Rodriguez	3B	600	41.14	-2	3.91
Derek Jeter	SS	600	23.45	-13	1.05
Johnny Damon	LF	600	12.71	6	1.87
Brett Gardner	CF	600	-3.04	5	0.2
Ryan Langerhans	RF	600	0.5	14	1.45
Hideki Matsui	DH	600	10.22	0	1.02
Starters Total		5400	134.4	5	13.9
Bench Total		1004	0	0	0
Team Total			134.4	5	13.9

This lineup is 2.1 wins better than the previous one. Offensively, it's not much better. Defensively, however, we've improved by 23 runs. This lineup has filled the first base gap, which means we do not have to place a replacement level Juan Miranda into the batting order every day. Ryan Langerhans, by himself, has added 24 runs to the team. That's more than any of the starters in this lineup, bar Alex Rodriguez, contributes to the team. All of this from a man who won't command much money at all.

In summation, I'm not advocating signing Langerhans, but merely giving you some food for thought (in fact, I don't want to have both Langerhans and Brett Gardner in the same outfield unless the Yankees sign a big bat for DH or 1B). Langerhans playing right field and moving Nady has some interesting implications. For example, you can now sign Mark Teixeira and then trade Xavier Nady. One could trade for Mike Cameron and play with a Damon, Langerhans, Cameron OF. One could use the money which would have gone to fixing the hole at first base and spend it on a better DH. The Yankees could sign Adam Dunn and have a Dunn, Damon, Langerhans OF. The Holliday trade could be made and we could have a Holliday, Damon, Langerhans outfield with Adam Dunn/Pat the Bat as the DH. There are so many new options which are opened by signing Langerhans. His flexibility in the OF and defensive prowess make him a very underrated player for the Yankees. Just remember -- when you think outside of the box, many new and interesting ideas can be put into play.