SB Nation User Blog: ScarletO

The case for Jason Garrett as Head Coach (and against Wade)

ScarletO — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:50:04 -0000

The Cowboys offense is currently 3rd in total offense (7th in rushing and 6th in passing) in the NFL. The Giants (10th in rushing and 8th in passing) and the Saints (5th in rushing and 3rd in passing) are the only other teams that rank in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense this season.

Garrett was the offensive coordinator in 2007, when the Cowboys finished the season 3rd in total offense. That season, the Cowboys were ranked 17th in rushing and 4th in passing. Jason has guided this rushing offense from 17th in 2007, 21st in 2008, to 7th in rushing at this time.

Garrett has accomplished this with an offensive line in rapid decline. The line surrendered 25 sacks in 2007, 31 in 2008, and is on pace to yield about 35 this season. The inconsistency of the line led to a 2007 heartbreaking playoff loss, a season-ending collapse in 2008, and is in the process of repeating history.

For all of the talk of how Sparano was really the brains behind Jason’s success in 2007, this edition of the Cowboys’ offense has looked better in many ways.

Turnovers in 2007: 24. In 2009: 21 (projected).

Romo threw 19 interceptions in 2007, and has thrown but 7 so far this season. That is progress, growth, and so forth. Is that not what you want to see from a coach and a player?

Yards per game in 2007: 365.7. In 2009: 391.1, and this is with much greater balance in the offense. Even the time of possession is better this season, 30:34 in 2007, and 31:08 in 2009.

Now look at the defense from 2006 to 2009:

Parcells’ 2006 pass defense permitted opponents’ quarterbacks to amass a 83.2 quarterback rating, while collecting 34 sacks, 18 interceptions, and yielding 219.1 pass yards per week. In 2007, Wade’s defense sacked opposing quarterbacks 46 times while intercepting 19 passes. Opposing quarterbacks only earned a rating of 75.1 while passing for 213.1 yards per game.

Big pass plays dropped from 14 passes of over 40-yards to 7 big pass plays after Wade (and Hamlin) started in 2007. Big running plays of over 20-yards increased from 5 in 2006 to 9 in 2007 (also 0 runs of at least 40-yards in 2006 compared to 2 in 2007).

In 2009, the Cowboys defense (before playing New Orleans) has yielded 8 runs of at least 20-yards. The pass defense is permitting opposing quarterbacks to post a rating of 86.1, which is eerily similar to the 86.2 rating last season. For the second straight season, the pass defense has collected few interceptions: just 9 interceptions through 13 games (8 in 2008). Opposing quarterbacks are now passing for 229.2 yards per game, and have only been sacked 30 times though 13 games.

The offense is improving. The defense has gotten worse or has not improved since 2006, Parcells’ last season. Wade has changed 7 starters (Olshansky, Ratliff, Brooking, Spencer, Hamlin, Sensabaugh, and Jenkins) since 2006, and the defensive numbers are virtually unchanged.

Since Wade has been here, Dallas has drafted two defensive players (Spencer and Jenkins) in the first round. Add those picks to the other four first round picks on defense selected in the first round by the Cowboys, and the lack of defensive improvement is hard to swallow.

Just as Romo, Witten, and Austin are not the problem on offense, Jason Garrett is not the problem on the coaching staff. Garrett is working with an offense that has exactly one player drafted by Dallas in the first round: Felix Jones. Jason is obviously getting the most from his players.

I doubt Jerry was talking about Garrett when he spoke about how this team is under performing. Jason deserves the job.

In three seasons, with Garrett running the show, the Cowboys will be 19-0 and be considered the best team in the league, like New Orleans and former Dallas offensive coordinator Sean Payton is three years into his head coaching experience.

Can Wade play poker?

ScarletO — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:04:58 -0000

Last season, the Cowboys won the Thanksgiving Day game against a Seattle team that was playing minus a few chips. The win versus the Seahawks boosted Dallas to an 8-4 record. While not the chip leader (the Giants were 10-1), the Cowboys were two wins in front of the Eagles (6-5-1), half a game in front of the Falcons (7-4), and but half a game behind the Buccaneers (8-3).

Most fans and media remember what happened next: a cold Sunday loss in Pittsburgh (the eventual champion) that left the Cowboys 8-5. A win against New York proved to be the final win of the season, as Dallas lost to Baltimore and Philadelphia in subsequent weeks.

Dallas folded and lost all their chips in Philadelphia. Instead of firing the guy that supposedly makes the decisions on how to play the hand dealt to the Cowboys, Jerry decided to play a different hand this season. With the help of Stephen Jones, Jerry released the wild cards on this team.

About a year later, and one of the best teams in the AFC is in Arlington. This game has a great deal riding on the outcome.

Jerry Jones, the loose playing poker player has gone all in, backing a team concept over the “star” system that has not won anything of note since 1995. Now Jones will find out if the cards he discarded really have strengthened his hand, or if they have Jerry leaving the table early…again.

Hopefully, Jerry will realize that sometimes a good hand does not win, and he does not return to his ways of reaching for stars. Just look at the current stars on the offense:

Tony Romo: undrafted

Miles Austin: undrafted

Jason Witten: 3rd round pick

Even Jay Ratliff, who is the beast this season on defense, was a 7th round pick. Patience in developing his players has paid off.

Jerry has also been patient with Wade Phillips. Wade seems to have forgotten what happened last season after Thanksgiving, but the person bank rolling Phillips has come out and stated that he expects no less than a playoff win and a division title.

Wade was primarily brought in to mold an under performing, under whelming defense into a Super Bowl caliber winning unit. Sacks have been up, points against have decreased, but turnovers have been few and far between. It is difficult to win when face cards are just not coming down the pike.

Now comes the card on the river, will this defense step it up enough to slow down one of the best offensive teams that the Dallas Cowboys have faced? The answer will reward not only Jones, but also Phillips. After all, this is what Wade was supposed to fix.

So far Wade has been as wildly inconsistent as a rookie to the table. Play a good hand against the Chargers, and Phillips has a chance to make the Cowboys a winner...again.

Play this 2009 hand incorrectly this Sunday, and Wade can start looking for a different table. No pressure...

Shades of the Baltimore game

ScarletO — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 04:03:45 -0000

Anybody remember how Baltimore had a 77-yard touchdown run and an 82-yard touchdown run last season in the last game at Texas Stadium. It sent the Dallas Cowboys to Philadelphia with a playoff play-in game, and consequently to Valley Ranch to clean out their lockers.

Yeah, it still cuts me deep too.

That memory made it really hard to watch a 74-yard reception and a 79-yard punt return at the Meadowlands today and not have an impending feeling of doom.

Let’s hope that Dallas beats the third hottest team (only New Orleans and Indianapolis have longer winning streaks) in the NFL next Sunday in Arlington. The Chargers have won seven games in a row, and will visit Cowboys Stadium with a one game lead over the Denver Broncos (although it may be two games by kickoff since Denver visits Indianapolis earlier that day).

I cannot help but wonder if the hopes of Cowboys fans to see the Dallas Cowboys win a playoff game just disappeared like that 10 point lead in the Meadowlands. Couple this defeat with the loss at Lambeau last month, and I wonder if the Cowboys season will once again end after a game with the Eagles.

Dallas has lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with Green Bay (7-4) and New York (7-5). Considering that the Eagles are really the only other team involved in the NFC playoff race, a loss in that fateful January game in 2010 may easily knock the Cowboys out of the playoffs.

Suddenly, quincyyyyy’s draft posts do not seem so premature…

If Cowboys fans are melancholy over the irony (more on that irony in a moment) of this second loss to an imminently beatable New York team, then Wade must be distraught. It was just last week that Jerry Jones stated in his usual round-a-bout fashion that Coach Phillips could stick around if Dallas won a home playoff game in 2010.

Well the chances of winning the NFC East have just diminished, and as owner/GM Jones noted a few days ago, the Cowboys were certainly in a good position to do just that heading into December. Even though winning a playoff game on the road is possible, Jerry wants a playoff game in the new stadium…excuse me, Jerry wants a playoff WIN in his new stadium in 2010.

Now more on the irony of that second Giants game. Against Baltimore, Romo threw some bad interceptions. Against New York in the first game at Cowboys Stadium, Romo once again threw some ill-advised passes.

That is what makes this loss so tough to take: Romo was as awesome today, as he was terrible in September, and last December. The rest of the team just fell apart: particularly the special teams and the defense (again).

I mean, c’mon, Brandon Jacobs from 74-yards out? Really?

Somewhere, Amani Toomer was reliving his playoff glory in Dallas.

Romo tried to carry the team today, but the Wade-led defense once again crumbled and gave up too many big plays. The Giants only had the ball for 21:10 the entire game, yet the defense gave up 24 points. That is pathetic.

Dallas actually had two takeaways in the game, and finished the game up by one in the turnover margin (as opposed to the –4 in Arlington) and still lost. On the positive side, the Cowboys only had five accepted penalties in this game.

I guess that is progress – two takeaways and only five penalties.

DeCamillis’ units helped the Giants win this game: another missed field goal (I am not counting the 57-yard attempt, but I do wonder why Buehler did not kick it) and a punt return for a touchdown. Hopefully, the special teams will use this as a wake-up call and pick-up their play to at least their previous level of coverage.

The Dallas Cowboys still control their playoff aspirations. Unfortunately, hosting a 9-3 Chargers team playing as well as they have all season, visiting an undefeated Saints team that is finding ways to win every week, traveling to a venue that has traditionally been a house of horrors in Washington, and finishing the season against the Eagles (again), does not suggest that this edition of the Cowboys will break the playoff drought that has been ongoing since 1996.

If Dallas makes the playoffs, however, they will have earned it.

Maybe Dallas will get to play the Giants again in the post-season and dish-out some long-overdue revenge. Bradie James seemed to think so.

Most problems have a cure: maybe this team needs a doctor?

ScarletO — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:34:25 -0000

The human body is a marvelous mechanism. It adapts to change to improve the efficiency of operation.

Most people have at one time or another experienced this. A basic example is exercise. If an individual begins to stress his or her body with exercise, the body dedicates resources to better cope with the demands of the activity: that is why lifting weights leads to increased muscle mass.

The adaptations the human body initiates, however, are not all positive. When one aspect of the body is not operating correctly, the body compensates around the limitation to complete whatever activity would be otherwise limited. This frequently leads to injury due to overuse of an area not biomechanically designed for the stress it is enduring.

The spine is a perfect example of injuries due to compensatory mechanisms in the body. Every vertebra in the spine is influenced by the adjacent vertebrae. When a limitation exists with one vertebral junction, it throws all of the other vertebrae out of whack: somewhat like the weakest link in a chain.

Despite being a rugged structure that can usually withstand a lifetime of wear and tear, the spine breaks down when not functioning correctly.

Just like my favorite team: the Dallas Cowboys.

What I witnessed yesterday at a little over 5,280 feet above sea level was the breakdown of a team that has the components to be successful when everything is functioning adequately. It truly was a pain in the back (very lower area of the back) to watch, but understandable.

Some breakdowns have been present for years. Like the person with back pain that keeps doing the same thing repeatedly, yet expects the pain to stop, facets of the Cowboys showed little change from what has doomed them since 2007.

The backbone of the offense is the offensive line. It was once again unable to stop a blitzing team effectively. While I believe that the sack that led to the fumble was on Romo (he needed to account for Hill coming from the edge, albeit the blind side), the other sacks and pressures had a lot to do with breakdowns in protection from the offensive line.

Since Romo was not comfortable in the pocket, his accuracy suffered. This is not an excuse, but rather a conclusion based on an observation of the events. Furthermore, the receivers did not adapt to the pressure, despite Sherman telling them to make their breaks sharper and faster (kudos to the Fox team for getting that on film).

Tony, trying to make a play, incorrectly adapted by holding onto the ball in the pocket for extended periods several times, exacerbating the inadequacies of the offensive line. Subsequently, the lack of communication between the receivers and the quarterback became evident. Just as Steve Smith of Carolina gift-wrapped a win for Dallas on Monday night, Miles Austin delivered for the Broncos.

Now Miles was not the only receiver to make a mistake, but his was the only mistake that led to an interception. Again, I am not glossing over the accountability that Tony Romo had in the mauling at Mile High. For those needing to assign blame, however, there was plenty of blame to go around.

Once again, a defense that was rugged for the majority of the game broke like an osteoporotic bone in the last few minutes of the game: ceding 10 points and victory. DeMarcus Ware continues to go without a sack this season, even though he would have registered half of a sack, had it not been for Anthony Spencer’s facemask personal foul in the fourth quarter.

The defense continues to drop passes that hit their hands, over-pursue or get sealed-off on cut-back runs (see Baltimore in 2008), and play poorly for about five minutes per game: generally at the end of a half or the end of the game. Eventually the body accommodates to dysfunction. Hopefully, this is not the case with this edition of the Cowboys.

Injuries were also huge factor in determining the winner of this latest contest. For a while in the fourth quarter, Dallas had Watkins playing strong safety, Choice as the sole running back, and Sam Hurd playing in place of Roy Williams. Had Cory Procter needed to play, this would have been roughly the same team that flamed out to finish the 2008 season, sans a loud-mouthed receiver.

The lack of quality depth on this team has been another issue that has existed since 1995. This makes adapting to the loss of personnel even harder for the Dallas Cowboys. Unfortunately, injuries will continue to force this team to adapt as the year progresses.

The coaches are not helping with the changes faced week in and week out by this team…yet. It may be a circumstance where the patient is refusing care, in that players are just not listening to the advise (see the Sherman example) provided by the coaches. It may be a situation that necessitates different coaches: I do not know and will let much more sage football savants make that conclusion.

But there is also a bigger picture. Jimmy Johnson had a golden nugget of observation in the Fox pre-game show. He noted that the Cowboys are a team in transition with respect to their identity. No longer are these Cowboys the high-flying acrobatic show that has been present since the arrival of Jason Garrett as offensive coordinator. These Cowboys are more of a pay-per-view boxing match that actually goes 15 rounds. There will not be as many eye-popping big plays with this team as in the past, and plenty of ugliness in the ring.

An organism as wonderfully engineered as the human body takes approximately eight weeks to adapt to a change. Why would anyone expect a football team to adapt to an entirely new identity in just two or three weeks? To their credit, the New York Giants knew this when they upset Dallas in the playoffs. The Cowboys thrived off of the big play in 2007. The Giants realized that if they stopped the big plays and made Dallas grind, the Cowboys would be unable to adapt fully in such a short amount of time, and that breakdowns would occur.

The Broncos game reminded me a great deal of the Giants playoff loss. Denver, to their credit, had a great defensive game plan that the Cowboys will now need to find a way to defeat. Not many teams will be able to execute this game plan due to limitations with personnel, but Dallas will see facets of this plan nevertheless. Instead of being eliminated from the playoffs, however, the Cowboys have time to adapt after this latest loss.

The Felix effect

ScarletO — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:06:58 -0000

It is fascinating to see how many similarities exist between sports. A basketball team that can only score in the paint eventually struggles to score when the opponent compresses their zone defense close to the basket. A pitcher with a great fastball is just an average pitcher until he develops the change-up to complement the heater.

Similarities even span across team sports and individual sports. The tennis player that has an awesome forehand, but a weak backhand. The golfer that is tremendous off of the tee, but three putts consistently.

Anyone that has competed has experienced the “one-trick pony”. The baller who can only shoot accurately moving to his right. The batter that cannot hit the curveball. The buddy that keeps donating cash to your private fund every time he pulls the putter out of his bag…

Felix is the three pointer needed to complement your 7-foot center.

Felix is the pitcher that paints the corners with junk and blows the hard stuff by you.

Felix is Federer and Tiger in shoulder pads and a helmet…OK, maybe that is overstating it: call it literary license.

It is amazing how the Cowboys rushing offense changed once Felix left the game on Monday night. I am afraid that Felix’s absence in the mile-high city will make the Cowboys running game look like the slow, old, hairy, shirtless, fat guy on the basketball court that prides himself in playing tough defense: one-dimensional (and bad).

Of the 32 carries the Cowboys executed against the Carolina Panthers, 26 were handoffs to either Tashard Choice (whom also took a direct snap for 10 yards) or Felix Jones. Those handoffs helped Dallas accumulate 169 yards on the ground. That averages exactly 6.5 yards per traditional rushing attempt.

The Dallas game plan started out simply enough: run behind Flozell Adams and Kyle Kosier. The Cowboys ran six of their 11 first half traditional running plays off of left guard (1), left tackle (2), or left end (3), and gained 36 yards. The Cowboys also had two token runs off of right tackle in the first half of the game that accounted for 18 yards, and almost much, much more, if not for a shoe-string tackle on Felix.

The Cowboys only ran three times up the middle (for 12 yards) in the first half, but once Jones went down, the offense changed their rushing strategy. In the second half, Dallas ran the ball four times on the left side of the line: two off of left end, and two off of left tackle. One of the runs off of left end was the huge 40-yard gallop by Felix.

The Cowboys only ran twice around right end for a total of six yards in the second half from traditional running sets. That means that of the 15 traditional runs executed by the Cowboys in the second half of the game against Carolina, Dallas ran up the middle nine times for 42 yards.

Of the 12 rushes up the middle, the longest run went for 9 yards, and four of the carries went for three yards or less. The Cowboys averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry running against a depleted Carolina front. That is generally considered a great average, but Dallas averaged 9.1 yards per carry running to the left and 6.0 yards per rush to the right side of the line.

Felix threatens the perimeter of the defense like no other player wearing a star since Tony Dorsett. Sans Felix, the Cowboys focused on grinding the ball up the middle of the defense. Felix’s speed and elusiveness forced the Panthers to defend across the entire line of scrimmage, and was the Cowboys most effective answer for Carolina’s zone blitz schemes.

Hopefully Felix will return soon, because nobody enjoys watching the slow, old, hairy, shirtless, fat guy on the basketball court. Perhaps that is also an overstatement…more literary license.

The Cowboys Championship defense after 12.5% of the season

ScarletO — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 23:47:28 -0000

Decisions made with a lack of information have shaped history. In 1938, Arthur Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, signed the Munich Agreement, conceding the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Germany. By doing so, numerous weapon factories in Czechoslovakia were handed over to the Nazis.

Chamberlain was forced to resign the premiership on May 10th, 1940, after Germany invaded the Netherlands. Neville Chamberlain was judged harshly for his political decisions. Among other influences, Neville made decisions based on incomplete and erroneous information.

But decisions based on incomplete information occur at every level of life, and influence personal history. Surgeons perform surgery based on information available through MRI, X-Ray, and/or CAT scans. Until the surgeon is actually inside the body, the physician is operating under the best available information, albeit incomplete.

Adapting this concept further, Tony Romo threw his third interception because he failed to see the safety deep. He could have collected the necessary information by finding the safety, Phillips, on the field, but he did not, and therefore his decision to throw deep was based upon incomplete information.

When making critical decisions, nary a soul will disagree that gathering accurate and complete information is necessary. With only two games having been played in the NFL season, it is not possible to obtain a good sampling of information. Therefore, the available information contains errors based on small sample size and changes over time, despite pointing towards a trend.

The Dallas defensive statistics after two games are pathetic, but not unprecedented. In 2007, the Cowboys were giving up 27.5 points per game (in 2009, the Dallas defense is surrendering 27 points per game), and permitting opponents to convert on 50% of third down opportunities (the 2009 Cowboys are permitting first down conversions on 39% of third downs) two games into the season.

The Cowboys hosted the Giants (which won the Super Bowl that season) and went to Miami to play the Dolphins (which finished 1-15). The Dallas defense did collect three sacks, one interception and a fumble in those games, as opposed to the goose eggs the defense has collected this season.

Compare the final 2007 defensive statistics with those garnered in the first two games, however, and a stark difference in performance is highlighted. Over the past two seasons, the Cowboys defense has permitted opponents to covert on 37.4% of third down plays, have surrendered an average of 301 yards per game (with an average gain of 4.9 yards per play), and yielded but 21.6 points per game.

Successful teams all have stretches where one or two units play poorly. In 2007, the Giants started the season giving up 40 points per game, with opponents moving the ball 423 yards per game, at a clip of 6.9 yards per play (Dallas has surrendered 438.5 yards a game with the average play gaining 6.4 yards so far this season), with 55% of third down opportunities being converted into first downs.

New York’s defense finished the season allowing 21.9 points per game, 305 yards per game at a 5.0 yards per play average, and permitting 35% of third down opportunities to be converted into first downs. Obviously that defense improved as the season progressed, but teams do not need to reach a crescendo defensively towards the end of the season to have success.

In 2008, the Arizona Cardinals gave up 41 points per game with 455 yards per game (an average of 6.3 yards per play), while permitting opponents to convert 58.1% of their third down opportunities into first downs in the 15th and 16th weeks of the season. The Cardinals were significantly better earlier in the season, surrendering 26.6 points per game and 331.5 yards per game (5.3 yards per play), with opponents getting first downs on 44% of third down plays.

Arizona’s defensive numbers are horrendous in comparison with the Giants and Cowboys defenses of the last few seasons. Yet the Cardinals represented the NFC in the last Super Bowl.

It is impossible to get any useful information from the two games the Dallas defense has played in this young season. History suggests that the Cowboys will post numbers similar to what it has the previous two seasons, which are good enough to get Dallas into the playoffs.

Based on the last two seasons, that is all that fans, players, coaches, and owners can ask for: an opportunity to play in the post season. Once in the post season, the games become a crapshoot favoring the team that plays better than its regular season statistics would suggest. 9-7 teams can win the conference as easily as a 12 or 13 win team can.

The regular season is just a means to get to the playoffs (the ends). In many sports, history suggests that statistics are overvalued once teams reach the postseason tournament. Obsessing over the final score of a game in week two, therefore, a game that is worth exactly 6.25% of the season is a waste of more than 93% of one’s time.

I know a whole lot of surgeons that would not operate having about 12.5% of the available information at their disposal. Of course, this is football, and not brain surgery.

Bullish on the 'Boys

ScarletO — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 14:52:20 -0000

In the fall of 2000, I got married. As my friends like to remind me, I clearly out-punted my coverage. Can’t really argue with them.

In order to pay for the wedding, and some other debt, I went against the advise of my broker and cashed out almost all of my investments. It was difficult to go against the professional opinion of a man dedicated to studying the marketplace, so I did a little research.

One of my discoveries was that nothing new happens in the stock market. Whatever is currently occurring in the market has happened before. In other words, past performance is indicative of future success or failure.

The secret is focusing on the correct information.

So what is the correct information to glean from a difficult loss in the new Dallas Stadium? Well, here is my opinion, for what it is worth…

Most fans have seen Romo’s stock fluctuate wildly in the past. The first interception he threw last night looked like the pick six he threw last season in Pittsburgh. The last interception looked like one of the interceptions pick he threw to Ed Reed during the final game in the Texas Stadium.

I am not making the decision to invest my hopes for this season on those two specific throws, however, as Tony’s performance was atypical. Romo’s past performance when starting against the Giants would suggest that this game was an anomaly.

Tony averaged almost 260 yards passing per game against the Giants in the past. He also completed almost 62% of his passes and had approximately 8.8 yards per attempt in those contests. Romo had amassed 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions in the other four games he started against the Giants. His passer rating was well over 100.

So who is willing to withdraw their holdings from a quarterback that has one clunker every five games? That is only three or four bad performances throughout the course of the season and (hopefully) the post-season.

The key questions that beg to be asked are, “What has changed? Does it have any impact on the problem?”

The running game was awesome, thanks in large part to a stellar performance from the offensive line that only committed one penalty and kept Romo clean (Tony was sacked eight times in the previous four games against the Giants). Unfortunately, given the camera angles of the game broadcast, it is impossible to ascertain whether the receivers were getting open. Only more games will show if the receivers were a factor, but there seemed to be guys running open through the short and intermediate zones.

The more that I see, the more I tend to think that this performance by Tony was an outlier. It was statistically his second worse performance of his career (behind a 22.2 rating in 2007). Sell the stock belonging to Romo if you wish, but I am ready to buy: remember…buy low, sell high.

I am willing to gamble that Tony will bounce back with great performances in the coming weeks. Romo has rebounded from poor performances (rating under 60) with performances garnering ratings of 58.8, 113.9, 111.6, 91, 81.2, and 113.7. So in his first season (2006), he put together consecutive clunkers for the only time during his entire career.

As far as the stock belonging to the Dallas Cowboys football club, there were some indicators that should worry investors, but there were more strong indicators that should encourage investors. The meek need not look any further than the Cowboys secondary in order to justify a panicked selling spree. Most will misplace the blame to the corners, but the deep play to Manningham over Scandrick reeked of bad safety play by Ken Hamlin…again.

Orlando needs to tackle better, and he bit several times on double moves, but Manning needed time in the pocket to execute those slow-developing patterns. For those wishing to dump their stock, look at Anthony Spencer for justification. Ratliff and Ware were occupying two or three blockers on almost every pass play, while one guy was keeping Spencer away from Eli for almost the entire game.

Hatcher and Bowens are what they are: one-dimensional back-ups that will bounce around from team to team once they leave via free agency. Spears and Olshansky also fall into that category but it is hard for me to be tough on guys that stoned the Giants running game: they did their jobs to the best of their ability.

For people like me, looking to buy more Dallas Cowboys, Brooking and James were stout against a very good running team. Flozell (despite the tripping), Marc, Andre, Kyle, and Leonard were AWESOME! Marion Barber III (strained hip flexor – could be out a couple of weeks or not at all), Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice were dominating.

I recognize that losing money due to falling stock prices during these tough economic times is serious and should explicably elicit stress and strong emotional responses, but watching your football team lose a close game should not ignite the inflammatory responses that I have witnessed. We surely have more going on in our lives than just football. After all, while none of us are Saints (heh, heh), we are successful Cowboys fans, not violent (just ask Santa), criminally prone (needing a stadium jail), perennially losing (can we say 0 Super Bowl victories enough?) Eagles fanatics.

For those interested, the stock market dipped just weeks after I took almost all of my investments out thanks to the dot.com crisis. The market never fully recovered, then crashed following 9/11. I have been buying ever since…just like I am this season with the Cowboys. Just too many positive indicators to overlook.

Some things should change, others will hopefully not in 2009

ScarletO — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:47:45 -0000

It would be nice to be able to pick the successful facets of the 2008 Dallas Cowboys team and carry them over to the 2009 season. As the 2008 edition of team proved, however, it is difficult for a team to repeat the successes of a previous season. Here are some things that should change and others that hopefully will not based on 2008.

Should Dallas start Felix Jones and return Marion Barber III to the closer role that made him a star in 2007?

I have heard this question posed several times during the off-season. In 2008, with Marion Barber III and Tony Romo starting, the Dallas Cowboys led the NFL in scoring on opening drives. Of course, the Cowboys did not continue to score at their blistering pace once Romo went out with his finger injury, and Barber III subsequently missed the end of the season also due to injury. Dallas was 6-2 with Romo and Barber III starting, and registered their only win over a successful playoff team during the 2008 season.

Can Romo be an elite quarterback in the NFL?

Until Tony wins a Super Bowl this will be Romo’s personal albatross. In 2008, Romo led the most effective two-minute offense until he broke his finger. The Cowboys scored more points in the last two-minutes of the first half than any other team in the NFL. Before getting injured, Tony also had the highest quarterback rating in the NFL during the fourth quarter and the second highest on third down (Eli Manning had the highest: a plethora of 3rd and 3 or less will do that). Romo also had the highest quarterback rating in the league on third and less than 7 yards to go.

Will this be Romo’s team?

Based upon past performance, there is a really good chance that not one receiver, tight end, nor running back has over 1,000 yards receiving or rushing. Roy Williams may be the closest to gain 1,000 yards receiving, but Bennett will probably take receptions from both Witten and Williams. Unless Felix Jones gets over 13 carries a game, it is doubtful that he will break 1,000 yards rushing. This type of generic, well-balanced attack will help Romo become the focal point of the offense: kind of like a point guard in basketball. If Tony responds well to this type of responsibility, the Cowboys will be a formidable team.

Can the Cowboys win in December?

I do not know. There is insufficient data to make a determination. The Cowboys have had major injury problems to finish 2007 and 2008 that makes it difficult to compare their performance to earlier in the season. The other variable from last season that makes comparisons to earlier in the season difficult is the schedule: Dallas played two playoff teams in their first six games, going 1-1. The Cowboys finished the season by playing four playoff teams, only winning one and losing three.

How will the schedule affect Dallas in 2009?

Five of the last seven NFC champions have come from pathetic divisions. The only exceptions were the 2007 Giants, and the 2002 Buccaneers (the rest of the division had about a .500 winning percentage), which coincidently were the only NFC teams to win the Super Bowl since the divisions realigned. So if the Cowboys can survive a grueling division and schedule to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, their chances to beat the AFC representative is quite good. The fact that some NFC teams get 4-6 “easy” wins from poor division opponents, however, places the Cowboys at a distinct disadvantage.

Was Wade the difference in the defense in 2008?

The statistics would suggest that a healthy Terrence Newman was really the difference in the defensive turnaround last season. When Newman returned from injury last season, the Dallas pass defense skyrocketed to second in the NFL over that span of time. Now some credit must be given to Wade Phillips, as he utilized Newman’s skills to help disguise a woefully inadequate strong safety position for most of the second half of the season.

What is the biggest area of improvement necessary for a successful 2009 campaign?

Penalties must be reduced and turnovers must be created. It is imperative that the Dallas defense reduce the number of penalties committed in 2008. Opponents scored over 60% of the time when the Dallas defense committed a penalty. In addition, the Cowboys were near the bottom in collecting interceptions last season despite leading the NFL in sacks. Most playoff teams in 2008 had very good turnover statistics.

Should people cheer for the Cowboys this season?

Besides diehard Cowboys fans? Of course, here’s why…

The Cowboys parted ways with almost all the selfish, self-destructive players on the roster present in 2008. If Dallas has success this year, it will provide a blueprint for success that spells doom for those jerks around the NFL that think themselves more important than the team, or the game. In addition, teams and fans will notice that the circus atmosphere that existed in Valley Ranch the last few years was abolished during the off-season. Any success this 2009 edition of the Dallas Cowboys experiences will further the belief that a focus on football is necessary for teams to win.

What can the Cowboys hopefully carry over to the 2009 season?

The pressure the Dallas defense exerted on opposing quarterbacks was awesome last season. Wade has shown that this is a consistent by-product of his system, so hopefully the Cowboys will be able to continue this trend. In addition, the Dallas defense forced opponents into an inordinate amount of field goals last season. The Cowboys offense will hopefully still execute as many big plays at it had last season.

Are there any other improvements that would be nice to see from this team?

Better special teams should top the list. The Cowboys went out of their way to address this during the off-season.

Turnovers must be near the top. A more balanced offense should help reduce the number of interceptions and fumbles the offense gave up last season.

The development of a run-stuffing nose tackle to permit Jay Ratliff to rest from time to time throughout the season would be nice since last season’s defense was not particularly stout against the run (below the NFL average regarding average yards per carry), especially late in the season.

The Cowboys will need a back-up offensive lineman to step-up at some point in the season. This has to rank as the biggest off-season priority heading into the 2010 NFL draft. There is nobody on the roster that has shown the ability to be an effective starter over the course of several games.

Hand in hand with the offensive line performance goes a consistent running game. Better consistency in the running game will lead to favorable third down conversion possibilities.

Feel free to add your own areas of improvement. It helps me to become aware of more going into the season.

Thanks.

Pathétique

ScarletO — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 22:01:14 -0000

I had the pleasure of listening to the Appassionata, a sonata for piano composed by Ludwig von Beethoven, while sitting at my desk at work the other day. It eternally amazes me that such a tempestuous piano sonata could have been written by someone who was deaf or had severe tinnitus secondary to contracting typhus.

The notes danced off of the walls as the soothing sounds of Beethoven’s Piano Sonata No. 14 in C-sharp minor, more commonly known as the “Moonlight” Sonata, floated through the air. Ludwig’s genius and talent transcends the music.

In my opinion, greatness should be defined by the ability of one to supercede the limitations imposed upon him (or her) to flourish in their respective field. In contrast, those that have been blessed with great talent but squander their gifts should be, and often are, cast off as failures and epic dissapointments.

Somewhere in that continuum lies the 2008 edition of the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas defensive performance should be closer to the pole designating failure and disspointment.

Unlike other works, however, it would be quasi una fantasia to lay all of the blame at the feet of the defense. At times during the 2008 season, the performance of the special teams and offense was in a word: pathetic.

If the primary purpose of the defense is to prevent the opposition from scoring, the defense’s secondary task is to return the ball to its offensive unit prestissimo. Since football is a series of possessions, the following comparisons examine the frequency with which teams achieve scores per possession:

NFL average DC offense DC defense

TD / possession 18.7% 21.4% 15.8%

Score / possesion 32.8% 35.4% 35.8%

Notice the relatively low percent of touchdowns per possession, but that scores per possession are well over the NFL average. Adding the number of first downs surrendered, the probability of a team stringing together first downs to score touchdowns can be deduced:

NFL average DC offense DC defense

1st down(s) needed to score 3.7 3.714 5.0

Probability of making 1st downs for TD .1872 .2135 .1563

The similarity between the TD / possession statistic and the probability of making 1st downs for TD validates the fact that drives should be considered a series of first downs (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/09/importance-of-field-position.html). Since the Dallas defense significantly outperforms the NFL average in stopping touchdown drives, another factor is probably casuing the defense to give up more points than the average NFL team.

As I alluded to in my last post (http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2009/7/13/947533/dont-run-with-scissors), the underlying counter-melody to the 2008 season was the inability of the Cowboys defense to overcome adversity. According to the data in that post, when the Cowboys committed a defensive penalty, the opponent converted a first down on that drive a remarkable 90% of the time.

The undoing of the Dallas defense was its inability to overcome poor field position. While the defensive penalties were soli performed by defensive players, field position is a composition of the defense (not stopping an opponent), the offense (not moving the ball or turning it over), and of the special teams (not playing well).

On average, the Cowboys offense started drives at the Dallas 30-yard line. Opponents, on the other hand had an average starting field position at their 33-yard line. Three yards seems insignificant, but it translates to roughly one-quarter of the opponent drives leading to field goal attempts.

By losing three yards of field position per possession (12 possessions per game), the opponent started every third drive needing one fewer first down to enter scoring position. Consequently, the probability that the opponent would score a touchdown rose from less than 16% to almost 23% on those drives.

The inability of the defense to cope with poor field position cost the team more than two points per game. Add that to the estimated 4.6 points per game lost due to penalties, and Dallas was giving up almost a touchdown per game because of field position and defensive penalties.

Further hammering this point home is the fact that the Cowboys went 4-6 in games where Dallas had worse starting average field position. In those 10 games, the Dallas defense permitted an average of 21.6 points per game.

Conversely, the Cowboys won 5 and lost only one of the games where the defense was given more of an opportunity to stop the opposition from scoring because of better starting field position. In those remaining six contests, the Dallas defense permitted opponents to average only 18 points per game.

As noted above, the opus of the Cowboys offense had a major part in making it hard on the defense. Tomy Romo and the Dallas offense turned the ball over 28 times (not including turnovers leading to opponent defensive touchdowns and a muffed punt). The average field position following a Dallas turnover that was recovered within the field of play was the opponents’ own 47-yard line.

Opponents scored 79 points following turnovers downed within the field of play. Seven of those scores were touchdowns, while 10 were field goals.

Cowboys turnovers contributed to poor field position in 2008, but turnovers accounted for only roughly 15% of opponent possessions. If field position were truly too much for the defense to overcome, I would expect higher percentages of touchdowns per possession following turnovers that were recovered within the field of play.

The Dallas defense gave up a touchdown approximately 24% of the time on possessions following a turnover. That is significantly higher than the overall 15.8% achieved throughout the season (which would have been an outstanding 14.2% sans the turnovers).

Further proof that the flat play of the Dallas defense could not overcome poor field position is the fact that the defense had roughly the same field goal rate per possession following a turnover (26%), than it did usually (23%). The opposition scored on 18 of the 28 turnovers committed by the Dallas offense, or just over 64% of the time: significantly higher than the 35.8% the Dallas defense had permitted throughout the 2008 season.

Much has been made of diminishing penalties and turnovers da capo in order to avoid an encore of the 2008 season. Virtuoso play by the offense and the special teams will assist the defense to play sharper in 2009. The Dallas defense, however, must improve in order for the team to make the playoffs and win at least one post season contest this upcoming season.

A defense that can overcome the adversity that inevitably will befall the unit during the upcoming season would also aid the Cowboys to emerge vittorioso. Feel free to critique, ma non troppo.

Don’t run with scissors!

ScarletO — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 14:18:09 -0000

As I sat by the pool the other day, my daughter jumped out and ran over to get a toy. I reminded her that she should not run around the pool: she could slip on some water and hurt herself. She nodded and said, “OK, dad.”

A few minutes later, she did it again. “No running,” I commanded.

“Sorry, dad,” was her reply.

It happened one more time, and I told her that she would be sitting by the pool and not in it if she ran again. This obviously caught her attention, as that was the end of it.

This reminded me of when I thought that my parents and teachers used to have random rules that seemed to take a lot of the fun out of things that I enjoyed doing:

Don’t run with scissors!

Don’t swim immediately after eating!

Don’t pee into the wind!

OK, the last one I unfortunately figured out on my own.

I wondered privately at what age I started listening to my parents and abided by those rules. Any answers to this question are welcome, as I am still wondering.

Regardless of our best efforts to prepare our children to follow the right path, they choose to go their own way, despite the difficulties they encounter as a result of their choices.

Substitute “children” in the above sentence with the word “players”, and I think you have the theme of every Wade Phillips press conference in 2008, and the underlying problem with last season’s edition of the Dallas Cowboys. Too few players listened to the coaches and tried to follow their own agenda with little or no repercussions, damaging the chances of the team.

For instance, the Cowboys were second in the league in turnovers (which I will touch upon in an upcoming post), and worst in the league in penalties, accumulating 119 over 16 games. Dallas averaged about 7.4 penalties per game, losing 59.5 yards per game; but they really lost much more.

The coaches, as per Wade, “…do not coach penalties.” Of course they do not. These people are at the pinnacle of their coaching profession. These people give their players the best chance to succeed.

Now substitute the word “players” with “children” in that last sentence, and we could be talking about parents. In response to Wade’s rather myopic response, I have never taught my children to jump on the bed, but they still do it. At least they do until I discipline them.

I believe that there were some colorful off-season discussions between the Jones family and the coaches earlier this year. Again, just look at the off-season moves: Adam Jones was immediately dumped (2/9), and Tank Johnson was shown the door quickly (2/27). Rumblings regarding the undisciplined nature and play of each player on the field were reported. Neither player was offered another contract. In March, Terrell Owens was released.

These moves suggest that discipline would once again be emphasized at Valley Ranch. If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, then Tomlin (Steelers), Coughlin (Giants), Cowher (Steelers), Belichick (Patriots), and Gruden (Buccaneers) should be flattered. Not only do all of those coaches have a Super Bowl victory in common, winning 7 of the last 8 Super Bowls, but all have been recognized as tough, gritty, discipline-oriented coaches.

As a parent, I recognize that being a disciplinarian is only effective when the negative consequences of poor behavior are fair and leveled appropriately to the party committing the infraction. Sometimes it is difficult to determine which of my two kids instigated the problem, so I must investigate a little in order to ensure that my disciplinary measures have the desired effect.

Remember the press conference where Wade uttered that penalties have never been shown to decide the outcome of games? Coach Phillips must have been looking at the offensive side of the ball: or in this case, the child that should not be punished.

The Cowboys had 192 offensive possessions in 2008 and committed at least one offensive penalty on 44 possessions. The Cowboys scored 17 times (13 touchdowns), ran out the clock once, and punted 20 times on those 44 possessions. The offense overcame its mistakes: it was good enough to do so about 39% of the time.

In fact, the offense seemed to function better when it put itself in a hole because of penalties. When the offense did not commit a penalty, it scored on approximately 30% of its possessions.

On the other hand, the defense could not overcome any type of adversity. The Cowboys coaches, and specifically Wade, should be very concerned with the defensive and coverage teams penalties, which will be analyzed as defensive penalties. The Dallas defense and coverage teams only committed 51 penalties in 2008, but those infractions were devastating.

Cowboys’ opponents had 190 possessions last season. On 159 of those possessions, Dallas did not commit a defensive penalty. Opponents scored 217 points on those possessions. The Cowboys defense yielded an average of 13.6 points per game on the 10 possessions per game where no defensive infractions were incurred.

Conversely, on the 31 possessions that Dallas committed defensive penalties, the Cowboys surrendered 113 points, or about 3.65 points per possession. That is more than an extra touchdown (7 points) per game.

On 23 of the 31 possessions where the Cowboys committed a defensive penalty, the opponent scored. Opponents only punted seven times on those possessions.

In addition to scoring, opponents were keeping the ball away from the Dallas offense, collecting 28 first downs on 31 possessions where defensive penalties were committed. More than half of the time (16), opponents benefited from a Cowboys defensive penalty on third down.

Of the 30 touchdowns the Dallas defense ceded in 2008, 11 touchdowns were scored on possessions where the Cowboys committed a defensive penalty. 12 of the 38 field goals made (32%) against the Cowboys were made on 16% of the opponent possessions.

The defense, which was directly under the guidance of Wade Phillips for the majority of the 2008 season, was the child needing discipline. The defense yielded scores almost three-quarters of the time after the unit committed a penalty.

I guess sometimes parents may be (at least I know I am) too close to their children to help them by instituting disciplinary measures necessary for the children to flourish in the future. Someone at Valley Ranch must have interceded and brought this truth to the forefront in January. It would explain a lot regarding the different approaches to coaching this off-season (http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/05/archer-2.html).

I know that as a parent I always welcome helpful suggestions: same goes for me as a Cowboys fan.