With a 1-1 prediction record in Round Three, I'm now a rather deplorable 6-8 for this playoff season, though do take some solace from the fact that the teams with home-ice advantage are also a rather deplorable 6-8. I'll get the drama out of the way now and say that this last series will end up being the rubber match since I'm going with the road Kings over the home Devils. Of course, the Kings are also generally seen as the favorite by both the media and the sports books, so taking the eighth seed to win it all really isn't too contrarian at this point. Nevertheless, I'll give some basic reasoning for my selection after the jump.

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When Ryan Smyth returned to the Edmonton Oilers, it was a fantastic day months-long process. Smyth's departure was the beginning of several seasons of horror, and there was some hope early on in the year that his return might also mean a return to respectability. It didn't turn out that way, but I'm not about to put that failure on Smyth, who was a much better player than I had expected.

Smyth was used mostly against the opposition's top guns on one of the top two lines at even strength, and he came out of it almost breaking even. That performance enabled the Oilers to give some shelter to their young stars, and when both of those groups played well, the Oilers even won some games.

But now it's time once again to negotiate a contract, something that has never been easy for the Oilers and Smyth. You'd think that it would be easier now that both parties know that Smyth wants to stay, but alas, with Smyth's status still up in the air, it's pretty clear that the two parties are reasonably far apart on a new deal.

Of course, it's not there hasn't been any discussion. We know that the Oilers offered Smyth a new contract around the trade deadline, and Robin Brownlee suggests that the offer was about $2M per season for two seasons. That number does sound a bit low to me, so like Brownlee, I can understand why Smyth didn't jump out and grab it. But what is reasonable? Let's take a look at after the jump.

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Cam Barker was terrible for the Edmonton Oilers, and even though there was some talk of him being the team's third-best defenseman when he was sitting out because of injury, by the end of the season he was sitting out because of being a crappy defenseman, so we can be pretty sure that he's not coming back. There's no room for him, and there's no reason to make room.

But was he really the absolute nadir of NHL defenders? Might it be possible that there was someone somewhere in the NHL who played somewhat regularly who was actually worse? Might that player have played for the Edmonton Oilers? I think that the answer to all of these questions could be "yes" and that the answer to two of them should be "yes". In the poll below, I've put up ten candidates (they all played a minimum of twenty games, so if you've got a alternate suggestion in the comments, make sure he qualifies), and after the jump we'll compare those players statistically.

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Ales Hemsky was one of just three regular Oiler forwards to have a positive Corsi rating, and he did it playing mostly tough competition during five-on-five play. For most players, that alone makes for a pretty good season. But not for Ales Hemsky. Because of the youth in the lineup, the Oilers need to rely on Hemsky to provide shelter for others, but they also rely on him to provide offense, and it's that second part of the equation that didn't quite happen like it has in the past.

In the six previous seasons, Hemsky scored 331 points in 360 regular season games, or 0.92 points per game. Health was a major concern - he played a total of 69 games in 2009-10 and 2010-11 combined - but when he was healthy, he was phenomenal. In 2011-12, Hemsky was healthy enough to play in (DUN DUN DUUUUN) 69 games, but he was something less than phenomenal offensively, scoring just 36 points, or 0.52 points per game. Is Hemsky likely to return to his previous level?

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Well, that second round was fun to watch - the Capitals killing a penalty in triple overtime was probably my favorite moment, which I guess makes me a bit sadistic - but my predictions were basically a total bust with only the Rangers coming through. That brings my overall record in these playoffs to a rather pathetic 5-7, which is a bit worse than my control system of just picking the team with home-ice advantage (though even that is a rather poor 6-6). It brings my overall record to 34-23, which is just slightly better than the control system's 33-24. But I'm not worried! With the three series left to go and the best team holding down an eighth seed, there's still time for this year's record to improve! My picks (which are apparently the kiss of death) along with some rationale after the jump.

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Theo Peckham was one of just five Oilers to play in at least 40 games and register a +/- rating of even or better, so you'd think that he probably had a decent year. That's not really the case. Peckham had some trouble getting into the lineup even when healthy this season, and that wasn't because the coach was making a bad personnel move: his struggles were very real.

The puck generally hasn't been moving the right way when Peckham is on the ice. His Corsi rate last season was worse than everyone but Taylor Chorney and Jason Strudwick, two guys who probably didn't belong in the NHL. That could probably be excused as a young defender being thrown into the deep end before his time, but when the Oilers dialed back the degree of difficulty, things didn't improve. This season, exempting Nick Schultz who spent most of the season in Minnesota, he was only able to beat out Ryan Whitney and Cam Barker, and with Whitney trying to recover from injury all season, that's two more players who weren't good NHL options. He was also second-to-last among the team's defenders in individual scoring chances, ahead of only Colten Teubert, yet another player who didn't belong in the NHL. Add to that his penchant for minor penalties - he was on of the league's five most penalized regular defenders (minimum of forty games) during five-on-five play in each of the last two seasons - and the fact that his season ended with his second (documented) concussion, and the picture really isn't pretty.

A few years ago, I suggested that Rick Berry was a good match for Theo Peckham. Rick Berry played 197 games in his NHL career. Theo Peckham has stands at 156. At this point, it's fair to ask whether or not Peckham will make it, and if he does, whether it will be with the Oilers or someone else.

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Eric Belanger did not have a very good season with the Edmonton Oilers. Coming into this season, Belanger had played a total of 716 regular season games in the NHL, and his recent history saw him being used consistently among the top nine forwards with several playoff-caliber teams including the 2010-11 Coyotes, the 2009-10 Capitals, and the 2007-08 Wild. When the Oilers signed him to a three-year deal over the summer, it seemed like a pretty good idea to me (though further research suggests that Steve Tambellini and I may have been wrong on this one) even though I knew that age-related decline was a possibility. Unfortunately for the Oilers, it looks like that decline may have happened in his first year with the team.

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Before the season began, I looked at how goaltenders with a similar track record to Devan Dubnyk in their 22-24 year-old seasons performed at age 25. On average, those goaltenders played in 37 games, faced 978 shots, and posted a save percentage of .906, which seemed like a reasonable line in the sand for Dubnyk heading into the 2011-12 season. Devan Dubnyk bested all of those numbers, playing in 47 games, facing 1,380 shots, and registering a save percentage of .914. It was a very successful season for the young netminder, and with a new contract on the horizon, it both the Oilers and Dubnyk's agent need to take a close look at what they should expect from Dubnyk going forward. After the jump, that's exactly what we'll do.

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Tobias Rieder's season came to an end when the Kitchener Rangers were swept out of the OHL playoffs by the London Knights a couple of weeks ago. Rieder scored three goals and one assist in the series to go along with an even rating during five-on-five play (+2 -2). Those are solid numbers considering his team was swept, but it's practically a disappearing act compared to Rieder's outstanding numbers in Kitchener's other two series in which he scored ten goals and thirteen assists with a +3 rating during five-on-five play (+11 -8) in just twelve games.

So how excited should Oiler fans be about this prospect? Should he be considered for NHL employment next season, or is he likely to need some more time? Obviously, I'm not going to come to any definite conclusions, but I will take a look at some of Rieder's historical comparables to give us an idea of where he might land.

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When Derek wrote a piece on Nikolai Khabibulin's true cost to the Oilers over the last several seasons, he decided to use the league's combined save percentage as a guideline to determine that value. To me, that didn't make a lot of sense because freely available talent (i.e. replacement level talent) usually isn't able to deliver average performance. In order to give us a better benchmark, I've taken a stab at establishing replacement level for NHL goaltenders and will take a look at the results after the jump.

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The Edmonton Oilers have signed young left-winger Kristians Pelss to a three-year entry-level contract. Pelss, like most of the other players drafted in 2010, needed to be signed before this June's draft for the Oilers to retain him, so this contract is likely the first of several (the others who will either be signed or sent back into the draft are Jeremie Blain, Brandon Davidson, and Drew Czerwonka).

I haven't seen any of the financial terms, but it's safe to say that the seventh-round pick in 2010 didn't get the same bonus structure as Taylor Hall. Pelss is only the fifth player from the seventh round in 2010 to get a contract. The others were Patrick Holland ($640,000 salary, $900,000 cap), Joonas Rask ($600,000 salary, $662,500 cap), Riley Boychuk ($567,500 salary and cap), and Zach Trotman ($665,000 salary, $900,000 cap). Trotman is a defender and Rask was signed out of Finland, and Boychuk is an enforcer, which leaves Holland as the only similar player-type signed out of the CHL. Of course, Holland scored 109 points in 72 regular season games and that's difficult to ignore.

So given that Pelss scored a measly 50 points in his 63 games, it can't possibly be the offense that stood out to them. That being the case, why did they give him a contract?

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The last time I wrote about the Barons, I talked quite a bit about the team's attendance throughout the year, and suggested that it's got to be a concern going forward. When the team had just 2,859 fans in attendance for the first home game of the playoffs, this was generally understood to be pretty negative. I actually thought it was a solid step in the right direction, and while that positive sentiment declined substantially with just 1,922 at the team's second home game, it's still far from a disaster so long as they recover somewhat in Round Two. A look at why this is the case after the jump.

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So the first round didn't go exactly as I thought it would. Of my eight projected winners, only four have come through to the second round with two of my lower seeds winning (Kings and Devils) and two of my higher seeds winning (Rangers and Blues). I've been making these predictions since the start of the 2009 playoffs, and this opening round record of 4-4 brings my overall record to 33-20, which is only slightly better than my imaginary nephew (he's 31-22 and was also 4-4 in this year's opening round) who always picks the team with home ice advantage. But at least I'm winning!

After the jump, I'll take a closer look at the four match-ups we have to look forward to in Round Two.

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We've taken a look at the Oilers at each quarter point during the season. After the first quarter, there was plenty of hope in Edmonton. The team had a record of 11-8-2, a goal differential of +6, and while the Fenwick and Corsi measurements weren't looking too good, the club was doing well going by scoring chances. The second quarter wasn't as successful. The team's goal differential was a brutal -14 in that segment, and they had an even more brutal 5-14-1 record. The chances started to conform to the Fenwick and Corsi metrics, and the club's overall record of 16-22-3 meant that the season was basically done.

The Oilers performed similarly in the third quarter as they had in the second going by goal differential at -12, but their 9-10-3 record made for a lot more points in the standings. The last quarter was more of the same. The Oilers were 7-8-4 with a -7 goal differential. After the jump, we'll look chart the team's possession numbers overall, and compare the team's performance on the road with their performance at home.

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In Game Four, the Red Wings were dominant, but were stonewalled by Pekka Rinne and let down by Jimmy Howard. That meant that instead of going back to Nashville tied 2-2, they went to Nashville down 3-1 and facing elimination, and when Game Five ended, the Red Wings' season was over. So was this another Rinne robbery, or were the Predators full value for the win? We'll take a look at the scoring chances after the jump.

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So I published Game Four on the weekend, but forgot all about Game Three. This was the first game in Detroit, and the series was tied 1-1. The Predators went on to win this one 3-2, but were outshot 43-22. Did the Wings double up on the scoring chances too? We'll take a look after the jump.

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Game Three saw the Red Wings in control for much of the contest, but that was to be expected with the Predators playing most of the game with a one or two-goal lead. This game saw a lot more action with the score tied, but it didn't feel all that much different. The ice was tilted, but goaltending made the difference. A closer look at Game Four after the jump.

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Definitely still playing catch-up, but hopefully I'll have caught up before the series is over. Unless you're a Nashville fan, of course. A closer look at Game Two after the jump.

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In my last post on the Barons, Permaculture wondered about what might be causing such sharp changes in the team's shot differential. With the Barons being a minor league team, there were plenty of changes to the lineup throughout the season, often with key players being missing for large swaths of time. There's no doubt that these changes were a factor. Something else I thought might be a factor is the team's level of competition at various points during the season.

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If you've been reading this site over the last week, you've no doubt become aware that the AHL regular season has come to an end and that the AHL playoffs are set to begin. The Oklahoma City Barons begin as the top seed in the Western Conference by virtue of their superior regular season performance. This came as a huge surprise to me. When I first looked at the team's performance in November, the team's record was strong, but with a shot differential of -4.8 per game and a PDO (in all situations) of 104.4, I thought that they were destined for a crash. Instead, the team's shot differential improved, and the goaltending remained strong enough that Yann Danis was named the league's top goaltender. After the jump, I'll take a closer look at the team's performance on the ice, and of course, (spoiler!) lament their performance at the gate.

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Off to a slow start with posting these, but I've been counting scoring chances for the series between Nashville and Detroit. The script isn't working real well for individual charts at the moment so I haven't included those below, but they are correct on the larger charts, so that's what you'll find after the jump.

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Good teams have a tendency to win games definitively. That doesn't come as a surprise, but it's good to know. It's also good to know that because there's almost no correlation from season to season in a team's ability to win one-goal games, a team's record in games decided by two or more goals is often a better indicator of their true level of ability. With empty-netters, going with a strict "win by two" policy probably isn't wise. As such, I've decided that a "clear victory" is any win by two or more goals without including empty-netters. So if you win 3-1 but got the third goal on an empty-netter, I didn't consider that win a "clear victory". If you win 4-1 but got two empty-netters, still doesn't count. We'll take a look at team and division results after the jump.

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This morning I looked at the outcome of my pre-season predictions, and while they didn't go quite as well as I might have hoped, they're still an awful lot of fun. But the best part about the regular season ending is the start of the playoffs (and an opportunity to watch teams other than the Oilers)! That, of course, means an opportunity for still more predictions. After the jump, I'll take a brief look at each of the first round match-ups using some of my favorite statistics, and make some picks.

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As many of you know, I made some predictions about the quality of various teams in the NHL before the season began using goal differential as the main indicator. Now, a common rule of thumb is that six goal differential is worth about one win, so it seems to me that any prediction that ends up within 15 goal differential of the result is pretty darn good, and that anything within 30 is passable. After the jump, I'll share a chart of my predictions compared to the actual results, try to evaluate them using a couple of controls, and take a closer look at the eight predictions that didn't even meet the criterion I set for passable.

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Then the daughter of Gillis went to find her seat in the stands along with some of her friends. There, she saw a young boy crying into his jersey, and she felt sorry for him. "This must be a young Oiler fan!" she said.

The young boy's sister then appeared and said, "We moved here three years ago, and my poor brother has endured nothing but relentless taunting."

"That's terrible!" Gillis' daughter replied. "Let me find this boy a new jersey with a more appropriate logo on it so that he will no longer endure such torment. I will pay for it myself, and I will be a friend to your young brother. Who knows? Maybe one day he will help my father to lead this team!"

So they went together to get the boy a new jersey that he could wear without shame. Gillis' daughter had "Moses" written on the back of the jersey for, she said, "I lifted him out of misery!"

Edmonton Oilers (32-39-10) @ Vancouver Canucks (50-22-9)

Rogers Arena, 8:00 p.m. MDT
Television: CBC

More analysis after the jump...

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If a manager mistreats a male or female fan of his team, and the spark of fandom within that person dies as a result, the manager must be punished. But give it at least a couple of years. If after a couple of years, it turns out that the spark of fandom was actually dormant and not extinguished, then the manager doesn't need to be punished. After all, they are fans of his team, and thus have no real say in what goes on. In this way, they are like property.

Anaheim Ducks (33-35-12) @ Edmonton Oilers (32-39-9)

Rexall Place, 7:30 p.m. MDT
Television: Sportsnet West

More analysis after the jump...

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